Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is in the off - season, and the cost and capital sentiment are the main drivers of the market. For PP, the cost support is strengthening, but the demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4][5] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for LLDPE, and cautiously buy PP on dips for hedging. The LLDPE - PP spread should be shorted when it is high [6] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L主力合约 closed at 6899 yuan/ton (-36), and the PP主力合约 closed at 6709 yuan/ton (-28). The LL North China spot was 6760 yuan/ton (-40), the LL East China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (-20), and the PP East China spot was 6520 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was -139 yuan/ton (-4), the LL East China basis was -19 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis was -189 yuan/ton (+28) [2] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.7% (+3.1%), and PP operating rate was 76.0% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 233.6 yuan/ton (+129.4), PP oil - based production profit was -386.4 yuan/ton (+129.4), and PDH - based PP production profit was -665.0 yuan/ton (+50.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was 377.4 yuan/ton (+109.5), PP import profit was -379.7 yuan/ton (-3.8), and PP export profit was -67.0 US dollars/ton (-10.2) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 36.3% (-0.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 45.0% (-3.2), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (-0.6), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.0% (+0.5) [3] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 铝现货贴水扩大 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价23760元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-30元/吨至-280元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录23870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-200元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-45元/吨至-165 元/吨。 电解铝：铝价呈现高位上涨乏力走势，现货贴水持续扩大，社会库存持续累库。绝对价格的上涨出现向下传导不 畅，下游进入消费淡季，开工率及产量环比继续回落，下游或提前进入春节假期。今年春节较晚，当前累库节点 较早，前期累库速度较快，微观数据对价格形成压力。长期宏观仍然成为主导价格长期上涨的逻辑，国内依旧适 度宽松的货币政策，海外仍存消费韧性，海外现货升水仍在走强。短期呈现抑制消费的情况，铝价存在回调修复 需求。 氧化铝：氧化铝企业出现了较多检修情况，一方面从时间周期看到了检修周期，另一方面则因为现货销售压力较 铝期货方面：2026-01-27日沪铝主力合约开于24400元/吨，收于 ...

油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9238.00元/吨，环比变化+146元，幅度+1.61%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8258.00 元/吨，环比变化+32.00元，幅度+0.39%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9326.00元/吨，环比变化-19.00元，幅度-0.20%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9130.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.77%，现货基差P05-108.00，环比变 化-76.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8540.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.23%，现货基差Y05+282.00， 环比变化-12.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.20%，现货基差 OI05+834.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，得益于节日季前的补货需求，马来西亚棕榈油出口延续增势，为价格提供利多 支撑。船货检验机构ITS发布的数据显示，马来西亚1月1-25日棕榈油产品出口量为1163634吨，较上月同期出口的 1058112吨增加9.97%。独立检验公司AmSpec Agri ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for EB2603 and BZ2603 is changed to neutral and under observation [3] Core Viewpoints - The low point of domestic pure benzene production may have passed, with a decrease in domestic supply and a slight increase in port inventory. The overall downstream operation is fair, and attention should be paid to the downstream's intention to pick up goods. - The lowest point of domestic styrene production may have gradually passed. Attention should be paid to the actual resumption progress. Styrene maintains low inventory, and the inventory pressure of its downstream has been further alleviated [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Temporal Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is - 40 yuan/ton (+13), and the spot - M2 spread is - 140 yuan/ton (- 25 yuan/ton). - The basis of styrene's main contract is 241 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton) [1] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 193 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 195 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton), with a US - Korea spread of 91.0 dollars/ton (- 4.0 dollars/ton). - Styrene's non - integrated production profit is 750 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.80 tons), and its operating rate further decreases. - Styrene's East China port inventory is 100,600 tons (+7,100 tons), commercial inventory is 62,300 tons (+3,400 tons), and the operating rate is 69.6% (- 1.2%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is - 11 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), PS is - 431 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and ABS is - 1330 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton). - EPS operating rate is 58.71% (+4.65%), PS is 57.30% (- 0.10%), and ABS is 66.80% (- 3.00%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 950 yuan/ton (+180), phenol - acetone is - 828 yuan/ton (- 25), aniline is 1241 yuan/ton (+70), and adipic acid is - 755 yuan/ton (+195). - Caprolactam operating rate is 76.17% (- 1.00%), phenol is 85.50% (- 3.50%), aniline is 87.61% (+10.51%), and adipic acid is 69.10% (+3.80%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The downstream market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although supply in some areas has decreased due to extreme weather, the demand for electric vehicle batteries has dropped significantly as the Spring Festival approaches, while the demand for automotive batteries is still acceptable. Some enterprises may start pre - festival inventory replenishment. The lead price is expected to rise slightly this week, with an overall operating range of 16,900 - 17,700 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Content Spot Market - On January 27, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 48.53 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,300 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai lead futures main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 62,123 lots, an increase of 13,107 lots from the previous trading day. The持仓 volume was 60,800 lots, a decrease of 2,985 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,165 yuan/ton and a low of 16,945 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, the downstream's attitude towards purchasing was divided, some continued to wait and see due to fear of price drops, the smelter's inventory increased slightly, and the market trading was rather light [2] Inventory - On January 27, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 211,175 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The overall investment strategy for lead is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increasing uncertainty of global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is 0.80%; PPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is - 1.90% [8] - Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of 0.47%; M2同比 is 8.50%, with a环比 change rate of + 6.25%; Manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a环比 change rate of + 1.83% [9] - The US dollar index is 95.77, with a环比 decrease of 1.28 and a环比 change rate of - 1.32%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9335, with a环比 decrease of 0.020 and a环比 change rate of - 0.29%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.56, with a环比 increase of 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.36%; DR007 is 1.58, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.60%; R007 is 1.68, with a环比 increase of 0.17 and a环比 change rate of + 11.44%; The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a环比 increase of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55% [9] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [12][15][19] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and the local government bond issuance [29][32] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of cash bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [31][37][38] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][52] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [54][55] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [60][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated bottom value of the February contract is around 1700 points, and shipping delays and online cargo - booking ratios of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price [4]. - Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate drive is weak. The market is speculating on the price - holding expectation of relatively low capacity pressure in March. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate cautiously. The 04 contract's drive is bearish [5][6][8]. - For longer - term contracts, the resumption time of the Suez Canal is uncertain, and the delivery of very large ships in 2026 is relatively small, so the longer - term contracts are expected to have large fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of January 27, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts is 60,170.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,874.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1717.50, 1193.90, 1442.20, 1528.40, 1112.00, and 1374.70 respectively [7]. II. Spot Prices - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1595 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2084 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2896 US dollars/FEU. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1859.31 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1294.32 points [7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of very large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February is 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 are 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance) and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - Hamas officials said they have fulfilled all the terms of the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. On January 15, Maersk announced that with the improvement of stability in the Red Sea area, the company will resume the Suez Canal route of the MECL service to improve transportation efficiency on the premise of ensuring safety. CMA has decided to divert ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal [2][6]. V. Demand and European Economy - In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced on January 8, 2026, that the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled, which may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].

尿素日报 | 2026-01-28 订单有支撑 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-27，尿素主力收盘1790元/吨（-1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1750 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -30元/吨（+11）；河南基差：-40元/吨（+11）；江苏基差：-20元/吨（+11）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（+10），出口利 润965元/吨（-4）。 供应端：截至2026-01-27，企业产能利用率86.39%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.60 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为13.40 万吨（+0.00）。 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 需求端：截至2026-01-27，复合肥产能利用率42.96%（+2.88%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.65%（+1.47%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.88日（-0.18）。 尿素现货降价企业成交较好。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The chemical sector's atmosphere has weakened, and the EG price has retreated. The EG main contract closed at 3938 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan/ton, -1.40% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3827 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton, -1.49% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was -119 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -37 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -665 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals in the main ports of East China this week are slightly high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is still high due to high supply and weak demand from January to February. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February. Overseas supply pressure will ease after the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants around the end of February. The demand side is weakening as the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads are accelerating their decline [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 3938 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan/ton, -1.40% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3827 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton, -1.49% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was -119 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -37 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -665 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads were accelerating their decline, resulting in weakening rigid demand support [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals in the main ports of East China this week are slightly high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the 3900 yuan/ton support level. The EG fundamentals remain weak, and the valuation has deviated from the low range after continuous increases. Pay attention to capital dynamics and the relative valuation changes of ethylene downstream products after price increases [3]. - Inter-period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter-variety: None [3].