新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-02 下游刚需采购 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-01，LME铅现货升水为-41.94美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16975元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 风险 1、国内供应大幅提升 2、消费不及预期 3、海外流动性收紧 据SMM讯，昨日SMM1#铅价较前一个交易日持平。河南地区铅冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅贴水20-0元/吨出厂，贸易 商报价对沪期铅2601合约贴水50-20元/吨出厂；湖南地区铅冶炼厂报价升水下调至对SMM1#铅升水50-60元/吨出厂 但成交 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-12-02 市场流动性概况 2025-12-01，股指板块成交5223.87亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.48%；持仓金额12818.55亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.02%；成交持仓比为40.76%。 国债板块成交3213.73亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.51%；持仓金额7290.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.09%；成交持 仓比为43.77%。 基本金属板块成交5527.22亿元，较上一交易日变动+48.01%；持仓金额6387.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.41%； 成交持仓比为82.49%。 贵金属板块成交11165.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+84.10%；持仓金额4874.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.48%；成 交持仓比为353.45%。 能源化工板块成交4339.49亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.33%；持仓金额4602.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.30%；成 交持仓比为83.59%。 农产品板块成交2941.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.80%；持仓金额6071.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.01%；成交 持仓比为46.79%。 黑色建材板块成交2850. ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-02 原油端小幅反弹，沥青市场情绪谨慎 市场分析 1、12月1日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价2990元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨13元/吨，涨幅 0.44%；持仓122004手，环比下跌11948手，成交164574手，环比下跌200245手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2910—3470元/吨；华南，2980—3210元/吨； 华东，3100—3400元/吨。 昨日山东、华东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。就沥青自身基本 面而言，尽管原油价格出现反弹，但由于国内多数地区沥青现货资源流通量较为充裕，沥青现货市场供过于求状 况持续，市场情绪偏谨慎，盘面仍受到压制，等待冬储需求进一步释放。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the China - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand for new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [2] - In the corn market, due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, and strong storage capacity of farmers, along with active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3039 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2423 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 110.80 tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 36%, higher than the previous week but 9% behind last year and 1% behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - After the China - US trade policy game, the focus is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. With an additional 10% import tariff on US soybeans and a decline in South American soybean premiums, the competitiveness of US soybeans is weakened, and the demand for new - season US soybeans is uncertain [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.36%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2542 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.94%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton [3] - Market Information: From October 16, US corn export sales net increased by 282.26 tons, up 113% from the previous week and 64% from the four - week average [3] Market Analysis - Due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, strong storage capacity of farmers, and active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Strategy - Neutral [6]

据农业农村部监测，12月1日"农产品批发价格200指数"为127.53，比上周五上升1.04个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为129.96，比上周五上升1.20个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.80元/公斤，比上周五下降0.2%； 牛肉66.58元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%；羊肉63.40元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4%；鸡蛋7.33元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.3%；白条鸡17.89元/公斤，比上周五上升1.8%。 市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-12-02 消费有所回暖，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11495元/吨，较前交易日变动+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.42元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-75，较前交易日变动+150；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.64元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH01+145，较前交易日变动+230；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01+5，较前交易日变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Market sentiment is cautious, and both glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate. Glass needs long - term losses for capacity clearance, and soda ash prices are restricted by potential float glass cold - repairs [1][2]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both are expected to show an oscillatory trend. Silicon manganese prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and silicon ferrosilicon prices will be weakly correlated with the sector in the short - term due to high inventory [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated downward with reduced positions. Spot prices were stable regionally, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs. Supply contraction was insufficient, and high inventory persisted. Attention should be paid to cold - repairs and macro policies [1]. - **Soda Ash Market Analysis**: Futures oscillated with varying performance among contracts. Light soda ash consumption was better than heavy soda ash, and downstream demand was for immediate needs. Supply - demand contradictions were slightly alleviated, but inventory remained high. Heavy soda ash demand may face challenges due to potential float glass cold - repairs [1]. - **Strategies**: Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, with no specific cross - period or cross - variety strategies provided [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Silicon Manganese Market Analysis**: Based on steel consumption data, building material consumption was fair. Futures rebounded strongly with the black market. Spot prices were firm, but production and operating rates continued to decline due to losses. Inventory reached a new high, and port manganese ore inventory increased slightly, providing cost support. Prices will follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to basis, manganese ore cost, and production changes [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis**: Futures rebounded with the black market. Spot prices were weakly stable with average trading volume. High production and inventory persisted, demand weakened marginally, and although inventory decreased slightly due to reduced operating rates, high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to cost factors and regional policies [3][4]. - **Strategies**: Both silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Views - The steel market is influenced by macro - expectations, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The consumption stability of finished products needs further observation, and attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - The iron ore market has a growing supply - demand contradiction with rising inventory. Some inventory is locked, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market is running in a volatile manner. The market sentiment is cautious. For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak prices. Downstream consumption is lower than expected, and inventory is relatively high. Long - term supply pattern changes and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be monitored [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,327 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally good, mainly for speculation and futures - spot trading, while rigid demand was average. Rebar prices in some regions were supported by mills. The national building materials trading volume was 124,959 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Finished product output increased slightly, inventory decline slowed, and consumption stability needs further observation. Plate inventory still exists, and its industrial - property consumption is expected to be better than that of finished products. With futures contract roll - over and positive macro - policies, market expectations remain. Attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were generally weak and stable with mediocre transactions. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports was 964,000 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with rising total inventory. Some inventory is locked due to non - market factors, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released. Attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: Driven by improved market sentiment, double - coking futures prices rebounded and showed a volatile trend. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, traders were cautious, and the market was quiet with falling port prices [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, market divergence on future prices has increased, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for both coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening, and the market is pessimistic. Downstream buyers mainly rely on long - term contracts. Some mines have inventory backlogs and fewer trucks for coal transportation. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, downstream demand is cold, and inventory is rising. Import coal tender prices are falling, and traders are cautious [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. In the long term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) data for various stock index options on November 28, 2025, enabling investors to understand the market's trading activity, sentiment, and volatility. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On November 28, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) reached 823,000 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) were 1,014,700 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options were 61,800 contracts; ChiNext ETF options were 1,520,100 contracts; SSE 50 Index options were 18,700 contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index options were 90,500 contracts; and CSI 1000 options totaled 173,500 contracts [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type is presented in Table 1. For example, the total trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 490,600 contracts, with 242,600 call contracts and 248,000 put contracts [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data for different stock index options on November 28, 2025, are as follows: The SSE 50 ETF option's turnover PCR was 0.92, with a +0.11 change compared to the previous period, and the position PCR was 0.99, with a - 0.01 change. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF option (Shanghai market)'s turnover PCR was 1.11, with a +0.16 change, and the position PCR was 1.10, with a +0.01 change. Other option types also have corresponding PCR and change data [2][37]. Option VIX - The VIX data for different stock index options on November 28, 2025, are as follows: The SSE 50 ETF option's VIX was 14.36%, with a - 0.32% change compared to the previous period; the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF option (Shanghai market)'s VIX was 15.36%, with a - 0.29% change. Other option types also have corresponding VIX and change data [3][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the market liquidity overview of various sectors on November 28, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 2. Stock Index Plate - On November 28, 2025, the trading volume was 5526.47 billion yuan, a - 6.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 12815.44 billion yuan, a - 1.32% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.91% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 3074.93 billion yuan, a - 26.33% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 7370.43 billion yuan, a - 0.51% change; the trading - holding ratio was 41.05% [1] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - Basic metal: The trading volume was 3734.35 billion yuan, a - 16.95% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 6059.51 billion yuan, a + 1.05% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.06% [1] - Precious metal: The trading volume was 6064.64 billion yuan, a - 19.23% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4711.20 billion yuan, a + 3.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 201.81% [1] 5. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 4240.84 billion yuan, a + 6.40% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4543.21 billion yuan, a - 0.02% change; the trading - holding ratio was 81.27% [1] 6. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 2918.64 billion yuan, a - 7.99% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 6072.60 billion yuan, a + 0.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.23% [1] 7. Black Building Material Plate - The trading volume was 2387.49 billion yuan, a + 15.73% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3541.71 billion yuan, a - 0.93% change; the trading - holding ratio was 70.65% [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, there is still some room for growth in iron ore consumption, but explosive growth is unlikely. The supply - demand of iron ore is expected to continue to shift towards looseness. In the case of a 0.1% increase in domestic crude steel consumption, the iron ore supply - demand surplus will exceed 20 million tons. Considering the finished product end, the surplus of iron elements is higher. If the annual average price in 2026 is calculated at $95, high - cost non - mainstream mines will further reduce the volume sent to China compared to this year, and the decline in production may be lower than this value, which will support iron ore prices and limit the downside space. Throughout the year, iron ore prices will fluctuate within a certain range, and the volatility may further decline [6]. - In 2025, the iron ore price showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to the 2024 average price of $109. The global iron ore supply was significantly lower than expected from January to October, leading to a reduction of 3.21 million tons in domestic port inventory. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly [7][8]. - In 2026, new global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs. Overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will grow by 0.1% and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. The supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Iron Ore Market Review - **Price Trend**: The iron ore price in 2025 showed an N - shaped trend. The annual average price of the iron ore index is expected to be around $103, a decrease of about $6 compared to 2024 [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the iron ore main contract showed a volatile trend. Currently, it is still in a state of contango. After August, the spot performance was strong, and the futures fluctuated. Currently, the basis of PB powder main contract is at the median level in recent years [23]. - **Spread**: In the first half of 2025, the high - medium grade premium fluctuated downward. Subsequently, as steel mill profits were continuously compressed, the high - medium grade spread narrowed, and the medium - low grade spread widened [25]. 3.2 2025 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October 2025, overseas crude steel consumption increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 2.1% for the whole year. Overseas crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 0.5% for the whole year. From January to October, overseas total iron production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and iron ore consumption decreased by 3.68 million tons [28]. - **Domestic Demand**: As of October 2025, domestic crude steel production increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons for the whole year, an increase of 35.24 million tons. The consumption of scrap steel increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to October, and is expected to increase by 3.7% for the whole year. Iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 47.28 million tons for the whole year [39]. - **Global Total Iron Production**: In 2025, global total iron production is expected to increase significantly. The proportion of China's total iron production in the global total iron production has rebounded [47]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to October 2025, domestic iron ore imports were 1.03 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.04 million tons. It is expected that the net import of domestic iron ore will increase by 1.3% or 15.36 million tons for the whole year [53]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From January to October, global iron ore consumption increased by 47.39 million tons, while supply increased by 3.01 million tons. It is expected that the global iron ore demand will increase significantly in 2025, while the supply will increase slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore in the second half of the year will shift from a tight pattern to a loose one [68]. 3.3 2026 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Outlook - **New Production Capacity**: In 2026, global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue to expand, with an estimated supply increment of about 50 million tons. This may lead to a further decline in the annual average price of iron ore and reduce the supply of non - mainstream iron ore with higher marginal costs [10]. - **Overseas Consumption**: In 2026, overseas crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 2.0%, and production by 1.0%. Overseas iron ore consumption is expected to increase by 8.54 million tons [83]. - **Domestic Consumption**: In 2026, domestic crude steel consumption is expected to grow by 0.1%, and production by 1.4%. China's net export of crude steel is expected to maintain high - level growth, increasing by 8.0% compared to 2025. China's iron ore consumption is expected to increase by nearly 20.24 million tons, and imports are expected to increase by nearly 40.44 million tons [90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on the above conditions, the supply - demand of iron ore in 2026 remains relatively loose [91].