有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约下跌 0.13%至 77650 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 1.12%至 19860 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate and adjust with a risk of decline; in the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large and the forward price rebound is under pressure. Egg prices are under pressure in the third quarter and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Palm oil shows short - term rebound but has limited long - term upside. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil also have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and trend moderately stronger in the long - term. Corn prices are expected to be moderately stronger, with short - term support and long - term upward drive but limited upside due to substitutes [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Spot price**: On June 4, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.1 - 14.3 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.2 - 15.8 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Market situation**: In June, the pig supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the overall consumption is weak. However, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and frozen product inventory entry still exists, limiting the decline of pig prices. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is at a low level and fluctuates in the short - term. Wait to short at the resistance level after the rebound. The resistance and support levels for different contracts are given [1]. 2. Egg - **Spot price**: On June 4, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.7 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Market situation**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand weakens, and the egg price support is limited. In the medium - term, the supply in the future may increase due to high replenishment in March - April 2025. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, be bearish in general; for the 10 contract, look for long opportunities at low prices [2]. 3. Oil Palm oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 1.44% to 3934 ringgit/ton [2]. - **Market situation**: In May, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved, the production increase slowed down, and the inventory accumulation was expected to slow down. The inventory in Indonesia decreased, and India has the demand to replenish inventory. In the long - term, the production will increase seasonally until October. In China, the palm oil inventory has recovered and will continue to rise [3][4]. - **Strategy**: The 08 contract may rebound in the short - term, pay attention to the performance at the 8000 resistance level. The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8300 [4][7]. Soybean oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.25% to 46.81 cents/pound [2]. - **Market situation**: The US biofuel blending plan is about to be announced. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the soybean oil inventory has increased, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 8000 [7]. Rapeseed oil - **Market situation**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export is strong, and the old - crop inventory is declining. The new - crop sowing is normal. In China, the inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure is large. Pay attention to the changes in China - Canada relations [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9500 [7]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean 07 contract rose 7.25 cents to 1040.75 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2935 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate. In China, the soybean arrival increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price will trend moderately stronger [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will be range - bound in the short - term, and go long on dips after mid - June [8]. 5. Corn - **Spot price**: On June 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2460 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the supply increases, but the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited due to substitutes [8]. - **Strategy**: Be moderately bullish. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level, and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is facing challenges with demand seasonally weakening, production expected to decline, and inventory trends shifting. The cost of steel is also decreasing due to falling raw material prices. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is relatively stable, with production maintained by coal price concessions and influenced more by macro - news. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a weak state, with deepening supply - demand contradictions and expected short - term weak adjustments or downward trends [3][4]. Section Summaries 1. Steel (Rebar) - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 10 - contract basis was 162 (+13). - The latest production and sales data showed stable apparent demand, but demand is likely to weaken seasonally. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Production is expected to decline steadily, and inventory removal will slow or slightly increase. - With falling raw material prices, the cost center of steel has shifted down. The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. - In the short term, with a low - valuation background, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. 2. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The spot price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 727 yuan/wet ton (-8), and the Platts 62% index was 96.30 dollars/ton (-0.50). - The total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69. - The iron ore market is relatively strong due to coal price concessions. It is more affected by macro - news, and the high - output effect of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year will be seen in early July. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline. - Technically, the long and short forces on the futures are not obvious. It is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic main - producing area coal mines have stable production, but some mines have limited production or short - term shutdowns due to inventory pressure. The import volume from Mongolia is restricted by weak demand, and the port quotation is under pressure. - Demand: Coking and steel enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy. Coking enterprises have low purchasing willingness due to shrinking profits, and the decline in steel mill hot - metal production suppresses raw material consumption. - Inventory: Coal mines face significant inventory pressure, and some mines are at full capacity. Coking plant raw - coal inventory has further decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is deepening, and it may continue to adjust weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of steel terminal demand, import coal price fluctuations, and domestic coal mine inventory removal and production reduction [3]. 4. Coke - Supply: Main - producing area coking enterprises maintain stable production, with only a few adjusting production due to environmental inspections and shipment pressure. - Demand: Steel mills maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with weak purchasing enthusiasm. The decline in hot - metal production weakens the rigid demand for coke, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is deepening. - Inventory: Coking enterprise on - site inventory is accumulating rapidly, and some areas are offering discounts. Steel mill coke available days are decreasing, and they have a clear tendency to control volume and reduce prices. - Cost: Raw - coal prices are also falling, but the decline in coke is faster, causing some cost - sensitive coking enterprises to face losses. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coke market is intensifying, and it may continue to decline weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal steel consumption, steel mill profit repair, and the impact of macro - policies on the industry chain [4]. 5. Industry News - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce will organize the 2025 new - energy vehicle rural promotion campaign, with special and characteristic activities in selected counties and surrounding towns [5]. - US President Trump raised the import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% (except for imports from the UK, which remain at 25%), effective from June 4, 2025, 00:01 EST [5]. - On June 3, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australian Trade Minister Farrell in Paris, discussing issues such as deepening China - Australia economic and trade relations and strengthening multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation [5]. - According to the China National Coal Association, in mid - May, the output of key coal enterprises was 60.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative output in the first and mid - May was 119 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [5]. - In May 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production, including projects of Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Zhanjiang Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhongtian Huai'an Company [5].

宏观反复，需求转淡 2025-6-3 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 行情回顾 宏观与基本面分析 目 录 铝价走势展望 01 02 03 04 01 行情回顾 01 沪铝行情回顾 02 宏观与铝基本面分析 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 2025/05/28 2025/05/23 2025/05/20 2025/05/15 2025/05/12 2025/05/07 2025/04/29 2025/04/24 2025/04/21 2025/04/16 2025/04/11 2025/04/08 2025/04/02 2025/03/28 2025/03/25 2025/03/20 2025/03/17 2025/03/12 2025/03/07 2025/03/04 2025/02/27 2025/02/24 2025/02/1 ...

关税影响再起 有色金属整体继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-06-03 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 | | 走势状态 | 行情观点 | 架作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 节前铜价重心小幅上移，现货分水有所回落，铜价维持高位震荡运行。节日期间美关摄影响用起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价湾添不利的情 | | | | | 绪影响。 上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场TC价格持稳-43左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较大。 卡 | | | | 高位偏强震荡 76500-79500 | 库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发货较少，节 | 区间交易 | | | | 前库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, and the overall market may continue a structural trend of index fluctuations and rotation of thematic sectors before the trading volume effectively expands. The bond market has limited intraday trading space, and the yield changes are mainly caused by market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors. The key to boosting domestic prices lies in expanding effective demand. Fiscal policy will increase efforts and improve efficiency, focusing on the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [9][11][21]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy - Strategy Outlook: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Core View: Tariff policy implementation is facing obstacles, and the US economic data and Fed's interest - rate cut plans are uncertain. In addition, geopolitical factors also affect the market. Before the trading volume effectively expands, the structural market of index fluctuations and thematic sector rotation is likely to continue [9]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate weakly [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Strategy Outlook: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. - Core View: The bond market has almost completed one - step pricing, with limited intraday trading space. The yield changes are mainly due to market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors [11]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate weakly [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.5%. The improvement in supply and demand is the main driving force, but it may be a short - term pulse. Enterprises are worried about long - term oversupply [18]. Inflation - In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month; PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The impact of tariff shocks on domestic CPI may be limited, and boosting prices depends on expanding effective demand [21]. Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - From January to April, the year - on - year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded to 1.4%. In April, the profit increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The improvement in profit is mainly due to the increase in profit margins. The profit growth rate shows a differentiation between upstream and downstream, and the export - related industries have improved [24]. Fiscal - From January to April 2025, national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%; expenditure was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [27]. Industrial Added Value - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rate slowed down compared with March, but the industrial production still shows resilience. The slowdown in the equipment manufacturing industry may be due to the decline in export - related production [30]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 3.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 4.0%. The growth rate of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all declined to varying degrees. The real estate investment continued to decline, and the new - house sales and real - estate enterprise funds were under pressure [33]. Social Retail Sales - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 5.1%, lower than market expectations. The growth rates of both necessary and optional consumption declined, and there were differences in the growth rates of different retail channels [36]. Social Financing - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock rebounded to 8.7%. Government bonds were the main support for the increase in social financing. Credit decreased seasonally, and the M2 growth rate rebounded [39]. Import and Export - In April, China's exports were 315.69 billion US dollars, imports were 219.51 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars. The export performance exceeded market expectations, mainly supported by re - export trade. The export growth rates of different trade methods and product categories showed different trends [42]. US Non - farm Payrolls - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.2%. The long - term and short - term unemployment problems showed signs of intensification, and the labor market was gradually cooling down [45]. US CPI - In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable [48]. Weekly Focus - Key economic indicators and events to be concerned about from June 3rd to June 6th include China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US May ISM Non - manufacturing Index, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate, and US May non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate [50].

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of [2900, 3000], while in the medium to long term, the price is expected to strengthen. Enterprises can take corresponding trading strategies based on price trends [3][6]. - The vegetable oil market is under pressure from the expectation of improved supply, with futures prices oscillating weakly. In the short term, the overall trend is expected to be volatile, while in the medium to long term, the market may shift from a volatile phase to a weakly oscillating one, and there is a possibility of a price rebound in the third quarter [3][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the spot price in East China was 2,830 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from the previous month. The M2509 contract closed at 2,968 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous month. The basis was 09 - 150 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan/ton from the previous month. After the May Day holiday, the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a decline in the spot price of soybean meal, while the futures price was relatively strong, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA May report lowered the ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for the price. However, favorable weather in the US soybean - growing regions and smooth sowing have limited the upside potential. Brazilian soybean production has increased, with prices running weakly but supported by high demand and planting costs. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July will increase, leading to a loose supply - demand situation. In the long term, Sino - US trade frictions may increase import costs and reduce supply, and the domestic soybean inventory will start to decline after September [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. Considering the high cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new Brazilian soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July is 2,850 yuan/ton, and from August to September it is 2,970 yuan/ton. The overall import crushing profit is between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to run strongly within the range of [2900, 3000]. Enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to build long positions at the lower end of the range [6]. 2. Vegetable Oil 2.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the main contract of palm oil (09) decreased by 88 yuan/ton to 8,060 yuan/ton, the main contract of soybean oil (09) decreased by 194 yuan/ton to 7,638 yuan/ton, and the main contract of rapeseed oil (09) increased by 51 yuan/ton to 9,348 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also showed different degrees of change [90][92]. 2.2 Palm Oil - In May, the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved in the second half of the month, while the production growth rate continued to slow down. It is expected that the inventory in Malaysia will increase to 2 million tons in May, with a slower accumulation rate compared to April. In Indonesia, the inventory continued to decline in March. In China, the arrival of palm oil from May to June is expected to exceed 200,000 tons each month, and the inventory is expected to recover in the future [90]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - In May, the US biodiesel policy had a significant impact on the market. The current fundamentals of US soybeans are mixed. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July is expected to average about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise, with a strong expectation of further inventory accumulation [90]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export in the 24/25 season remains strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing in Canada is in the later stage, with no obvious weather - related risks for now. In China, the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a historically high level, but the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly after June, and the inventory may start to decline in the third quarter [90]. 2.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil (09) are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7,500 - 8,000, 7,800 - 8,200, and 9,200 - 9,500 respectively. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spreads of soybean - palm oil, rapeseed - palm oil, and rapeseed - soybean oil (09) contracts can be monitored in the long term [90].

6月氯碱： 偏弱震荡 关注宏观和库存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 2025-06-03 目 录 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 02 烧碱：强现实弱预期 盘面偏弱震荡 03 PVC：弱预期低估值 盘面偏弱震荡 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱现货偏强运行 资料来源：IFIND，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，公开资料整理，长江期货 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱期货近强远弱 p 5月烧碱主力09合约先涨后跌，月度下跌0.93%收2456元/吨。近月06合约持续维持强势，月度上涨13.84%收2714元/吨。 p 现货维持强势，近月06合约上涨，09合约受终点供需预期偏弱走势弱势，6-9 月差走强，呈现强现实弱预期的分化格局。 p 5月上游一定检修，出口存有一定支撑，液碱库存处于下降态势。魏桥 液碱送货量持续处于低位，原料库存持续走低，但其新线投产对烧碱 需求有增量。5月中上旬氧化铝价格大幅上涨、利润修复，氧化铝复产 预期增强推动烧碱偏强。5月底氧化铝转跌，复产预期转弱。 p 魏桥连续6次上调32 ...

长江期货棉花月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-06-03 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 反弹结束，震荡回落 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 02 供应端分析：新季全球供应仍显宽松 03 需求端分析：下游需求总体尚稳 04 逻辑与展望：震荡回落 目 录 05 02 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 01 5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 数据来源：博易大师、中国棉花信息网、TTEB、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 5月郑棉大幅反弹后震荡运行，宏观层面，月初中美开始接触直至联合声明发布，中美关税战趋向缓和，市场 情绪有所缓解，期价从低位一路上行，达到月内最大涨幅，5 月 28 日，美国联邦贸易法院裁决阻止了特朗普 对等关税，后续对等关税发展如何需暂时观望，不确定性较大。基本面来看，市场前期部分积压订单逐步发运， 有少量订单回流，但棉类产业链传导不明 ...