Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience a weak adjustment. The recommended investment strategy is to short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract [2][3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Spot Price Drop, Futures Price Decline - **Futures Price**: In May, the glass futures market continued its downward trend. At the end of May, there was a slight rebound due to the oversupply of soda ash, a suitable soda - glass price difference leading to arbitrage operations, and rumors of cold repairs in Hubei production lines. Subsequently, large - scale ignition and resumption of production, along with the increase in inventory during the off - season, caused the main contract to fall below 1000. As of May 30, the glass 09 contract closed at 982 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18 [3][85]. - **Spot Price**: As of May 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1180 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1100 yuan/ton in Central China (down 10 yuan), and 1300 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged) [13]. - **Price Differences**: As of May 30, the soda - glass price difference was 217 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan), the basis of the 09 contract was 68 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 61 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [14]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Weakening Costs, Declining Profits - **Imports and Exports**: In March, China imported 475,300 weight - cases of float glass (a year - on - year increase of 44.78%) and exported 1,721,800 weight - cases (a year - on - year increase of 141.52%). There was an increase in the demand for some high - end glass abroad [21]. - **Profits**: The cost and selling price of glass both decreased, leading to weaker profits. The cost of natural gas production was 1603 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 303 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan); the cost of coal - gas production was 1148 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of 32 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan); the cost of petroleum coke production was 1159 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 59 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [24][27]. - **Supply**: As of last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,205 tons/day (up 1800 tons). In May, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, and 3 were restarted after ignition. The national inventory remained at a high level, with the inventory in North China and Central China increasing at the end of the month [29][30][31]. - **Inventory**: As of May 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 67,662,000 weight - cases (down 107,000 weight - cases). The inventory in North China was 9,598,000 weight - cases (up 177,000 weight - cases), in Central China was 7,658,000 weight - cases (down 76,000 weight - cases), in East China was 15,700,000 weight - cases (up 5,000 weight - cases), and in South China was 10,521,000 weight - cases (down 39,000 weight - cases) [31]. - **Deep - processing**: The orders of glass deep - processing were less than in previous years. As of May 30, the average national production - sales ratio of float glass was 98.8% (down 5.63%), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 50.2% (unchanged), and in mid - May, the number of days of glass deep - processing orders was 10.4 days (up 0.1 day) [37][40][41]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 387,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 vehicles), and sales were 2.59 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 325,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 231,000 vehicles). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 905,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 51.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) [51]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In April, China's real estate completion area was 25.8758 million square meters (a year - on - year decrease of 28%), sales were basically flat year - on - year, and other indicators decreased by more than 20%. New construction was 48.3938 million square meters (down 22%), construction was 66.0961 million square meters (down 27%), and commercial housing sales were 63.9239 million square meters (down 3%). From May 18th to May 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.28 million square meters (a month - on - month increase of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 8%). In April, real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [56]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Spot Price**: As of May 30, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1440 yuan/ton in East China (down 10 yuan), 1400 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1575 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1199 yuan/ton (down 54 yuan), and the basis in Central China was 201 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan) [58][63]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Profits**: As of the end of the month, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1443 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), with a gross profit of 67 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the cost of the joint - production process was 1635 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), with a gross profit of 215 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [65]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 685,100 tons (a week - on - week increase of 21,300 tons), including 369,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 9800 tons) and 315,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 11,500 tons). The loss was 180,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 12,300 tons). The exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 2062 (a week - on - week increase of 1915). As of May 30, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons), including 806,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons) and 818,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons) [80]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 407,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 8500 tons), and for light soda ash was 329,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 30,100 tons). The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 107.66% (a week - on - week increase of 2.36%). In April, the soda - ash inventory of sample float - glass factories was 24.2 days [82]. 3. Investment Strategy: Strong Supply, Weak Demand, Short on Rebounds - **Main Logic**: In May, the glass futures market continued to decline. At the end of the month, there was a slight rebound, but then the main contract fell below 1000 due to factors such as production resumption and inventory increase. In June, there is a plan to restart the first line of Shahe Xinli, and the supply remains loose. Considering high - temperature rainfall, previous ignition, and coal costs, glass prices are still suppressed, lacking the impetus for a significant rebound. Technically, the 09 contract broke below the 1000 mark after two confirmations, indicating that the short - side power still dominates. - **Operation Strategy**: Short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract, and partially take profits on previous short positions [3][85].

长江期货研究咨询部 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 赵丹琪：| Z0014940 电话：027-65777110 邮箱：zhaodq1@cjsc.com.cn 期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果 ...

尿素2025年6月报： 回归供需季节性 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-03 目 录 01 尿素行情回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市展望 01 尿素5月行情回顾 受出口信息持续影响，5月上旬尿素价格高位震荡，下旬回归实际供需矛盾，尿素产销转弱，价格高位回落，接近出口 调整前运行区间。5月30日尿素09合约收盘于1773元/吨，较上月底下调84元/吨，尿素河南市场价格1880元/吨，较 上月底下调26元/吨。 尿素09合约期货价格（元/吨） 1050 1550 2050 2550 3050 3550 中国尿素(小颗粒)日度均价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素基差与价差 价差：5月尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，5月30日9-1价差70元/吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to maintain a wait - and - see stance [3][70][72] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile trend. The rise was due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the expectation of another round of export rush after tariff cuts, while the decline was caused by the peak of hot metal production at the end of the month and the expected weak demand in the steel off - season. The global iron ore shipment showed a seasonal upward trend, and the mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil also reached high levels. With the maintenance of the port ore clearance volume, the port iron ore inventory continued to decline. At the end of the month, sporadic blast furnaces in Hebei and Shandong reduced their loads and production, combined with the earlier overhaul of large - scale blast furnaces, leading to an enlarged decline in hot metal production, but steel mills' profitability remained at a medium level. Looking ahead, due to the continuous price concessions of coal at the raw material end, steel mills' production can be maintained, so iron ore performed relatively strongly. The price fluctuated little, with less impact from fundamentals and more from macro - news. The high - volume shipments at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines usually take effect in early July, so it is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline. Technically, the long and short forces on the futures market are not obvious. In summary, it is expected that the iron ore futures market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the range of 690 - 730 [4][71] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review: Narrow - Range Fluctuation and Strengthening Basis - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Last Friday, the converted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were as follows: Super Special Fine was 821 yuan/ton (-11), PB Fine was 776 yuan/ton (-20), Newman Fine was 768 yuan/ton (-16), and Carajas Fine was 766 yuan/ton (-18). The domestic Tangshan 66% iron concentrate dry - based tax - included price was 925 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 96.8 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.75 and a monthly average of 99.12 US dollars/ton. The iron ore 09 contract closed at 702.0 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 16 [8] - **Basis and Spread**: On May 30, the futures main - contract steel - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, with a decrease of 0.02. The spreads between different grades of iron ore showed that the medium - and high - grade ores had relatively large declines. The basis of the PB Fine 09 contract was 74 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 4. The 09 - 01 spread was 35.5 yuan/ton last Friday, with no weekly change [21] - **Scrap Steel**: As of May 30, the market price of scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 10. The iron - to - scrap steel price difference in East China was 76 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 74 [23][24] 3.2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Domestic Resumption of Production and Peak of Hot Metal - **Imports**: In April, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,313.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 131.93, and the cumulative imports were 38,847.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 6,688.78 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315.11; lump ore imports were 1,899.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.02; pellet imports were 281.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 81.34; and iron concentrate imports were 1,443.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 288.67 [31][37] - **Domestic Supply**: On May 30, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises (363 mines) was 61.01%, a decrease of 4.14% from the previous period. As of May 30, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.23 from the previous period, and the iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 105.92 million tons, an increase of 5.37 from the previous period [43] - **Foreign Supply**: As of May 23, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 million tons, an increase of 23 from the previous period. Australia's shipments were 1,970.8 million tons, an increase of 143, and Brazil's shipments were 758.3 million tons, a decrease of 120. As of May 30, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.56 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.27, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was 19.86 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.12 [51] - **Port Supply**: On May 23, the arrivals at 45 major domestic ports were 2,151.3 million tons, a decrease of 120 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 80, a decrease of 9 from the previous period. The daily average ore clearance volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 326.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 from the previous period [56] - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,866.58 million tons, a weekly decrease of 121.25. The inventory of 247 domestic steel mills' imported iron ore was 8,754.33 million tons last Friday, a weekly decrease of 171.15, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.68 million tons/day, a decrease of 2.19. The total inventory of the two was 22,620.91 million tons, a decrease of 292.4 from the previous period [57] - **Steel Mills' Demand**: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 58.87%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 241.91 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 from the previous period. As of May 30, the furnace - charge ratio of steel mills was 73.19% for sintering ore, 14.63% for pellet ore, and 12.19% for lump ore [66] 3.3. Investment Strategy: Unclear Direction, Wait and See - **Investment Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors should focus on the range of 690 - 730 [70][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain stable with an increase in imports, while the demand growth rate is slower than supply. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rebounds to a high level and to keep an eye on upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production**: In May, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 73020 tons. This week, the output increased by 350 tons to 15398 tons. The production of lithium salt plants has been stable, and some overseas mines have adjusted their production plans. For example, Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year to 700,000 - 740,000 tons, and the Bald Hill concentrator planned to stop operating in early December 2024 [4]. - **Import**: In April 2025, China's lithium ore import volume was 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The lithium carbonate import volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56%. It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salt will remain high [4]. - **Cost**: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. 3.2 Demand - side - **Production and Sales of Batteries**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. The total export was 22.3GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 64.2%. The sales volume was 118.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. The overall production in June is expected to be flat month - on - month [5]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the Chinese new energy vehicle market [5]. 3.3 Inventory This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a build - up. The factory inventory decreased by 1142 tons to 33401 tons, the market inventory increased by 3409 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 427 tons [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion Given the situation of strong supply and weak demand that has not improved, it is recommended to short - sell when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds to a high level. It is also necessary to continuously monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode materials [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Production and Inventory**: There are data on monthly and weekly production, as well as weekly inventory changes over multiple years [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: The average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6% - 6.5%) is presented over a long - term time series [14][15]. - **Battery Production and Related Data**: Data on the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries, as well as the production and sales differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are provided [5][20][23]. - **Production of Lithium Carbonate from Different Raw Materials**: In April 2024, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium salt lakes accounted for 20.06%, from lithium mica 23.35%, and from lithium spodumene 44.61% [21][22]. - **Production of Cathode Materials**: There are data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials over multiple years [26][27][31]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The average prices of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), lithium iron phosphate (power - type), and ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) are presented over different time periods [18][35][39]. - **Import Volume**: Data on the import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over multiple years are provided [37][41].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile range between 13080 - 13415 yuan/ton due to factors such as the approaching US Treasury bond maturity in June, changes in CFTC positions, and uncertainty over tariff policies [1]. - PTA is likely to face pressure as macro - level benefits are digested, downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase [3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range, with potential price corrections after a rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range, with prices being strong in the near term and weak in the long term due to the approaching off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as the new sugar - cane season in Brazil and domestic supply - demand dynamics [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level in a volatile range due to low inventory, although the market is currently in a state of stable demand [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The spot price of lint cotton is relatively stable, with the 3128B index at 14578 yuan/ton, and the C32S yarn price index at 20470 yuan/ton. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5892 yuan/ton, and the basis is 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton [1]. - As of May 29, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 11537 (- 23) sheets, including 11157 (- 52) registered warehouse receipts and 380 (+ 29) valid forecasts [9]. - India has raised the minimum support price (MSP) for seed cotton in the 2025/26 season, with an 8.3% increase for medium - length cotton, 7.8% for longer - length cotton, and 7.9% for S - 6 cotton [9]. - In March 2025, US wholesalers' sales of clothing and fabrics increased by 3.49% year - on - year, inventory decreased by 6.46% year - on - year, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased to 2.06 [9]. PTA - As of May 22, 2025, the average PTA processing margin was 400.19 yuan/ton, up 2.38% month - on - month and down 2.33% year - on - year [8]. - As of May 22, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, up 1.49% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [8]. - As of the 20th, the PTA spot price dropped by 140 to 4855 yuan/ton. The polyester production cut affected market sentiment, and the spot basis weakened and then recovered [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 55.38%, down 5.66% month - on - month. The production decreased by 9.28% week - on - week [14]. - International oil prices have declined, reducing the cost of ethylene glycol. Domestic maintenance has increased significantly, and imports have remained low, while demand has maintained a high operating rate [3]. Short - fiber - As of May 8, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 16.14 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.33%, down 2.91% month - on - month [11]. - The cost of raw materials has increased, and supply has decreased, pushing up short - fiber prices. However, downstream demand remains weak, and prices are expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [4]. Sugar - Forecasts suggest that in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region, sugar production may decline by 11.5% to 229 tons, and ethanol production may decline by 7.9% to 1.85 billion liters [14]. - Ukraine has completed the beet sowing for the 2025/26 season, with a total sown area of 217,100 hectares [14]. - Brazil exported 1.5723 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of May, a 23.15% decrease compared to the same period last year [14]. Apple - As of May 28, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 1.5196 million tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons week - on - week [14]. - The prices of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are stable, with different price ranges for different grades [5][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends in the short, medium, and long term. The prices of most products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies [1][2][4]. - In the short term, most products show a trend of price fluctuations and range - bound trading, while in the medium and long term, the prices are influenced by factors such as production capacity changes, consumption trends, and weather conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Categories Pig - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 14.8 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.4 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15.2 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market has a strong sentiment to support prices. The demand for pre - holiday stocking increases, but the consumption off - season and losses of slaughterhouses limit the demand increase. The short - term price is supported at a low level and the volatility intensifies [1]. - **Medium - and Long - term Outlook**: From May to September 2024, the supply increases. From November 2024 to February 2025, the pressure on second - quarter shipments is large. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price still has a downward risk. From December 2024, the production capacity is reduced, but the reduction is limited, and the long - term price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is in a low - level range. The 07 contract has a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13100; the 09 contract has a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13300 - 13400. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then go short [1]. Egg - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.8 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.09 yuan/jin (down 0.09 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term Outlook**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is relieved, which supports the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large, and the weather is unfavorable for storage, so the price is under pressure [2]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: From June to August 2025, the number of newly - laid hens will increase, and the supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the newly - laid hens may decrease month - on - month. Pay attention to the molting, elimination, and chicken diseases in the third quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after June and pay attention to the pressure performance at 3020 - 3060; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a short - biased approach and wait for the price to rebound to go short. The 08 contract pays attention to the pressure at 3750 - 3800; the 10 contract pays attention to the opportunity to go long at a low price [2][4]. Oil Palm Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national palm oil price changed by 20 - 80 yuan/ton to 8610 - 8710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From May 1 - 25, the export data improved, and the production increase slowed down. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected, but the long - term inventory accumulation is a trend. The upgrade of the biodiesel blending standard will benefit domestic consumption. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the 08 contract will operate in the range of 3800 - 4000 [5]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: The arrival volume in May and June is expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month. The inventory recovery is slow, but the inventory is expected to recover in the future [5]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national soybean oil price changed by 0 - 10 yuan/ton to 7920 - 8030 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The postponement of tariffs on the EU reduces macro risks. The heavy rainfall in Argentina and the possible slowdown of sowing in the US support the price of US soybeans, but the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies and the fast sowing progress limit the increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short term [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The arrival volume of soybeans from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the future inventory is expected to increase [6]. Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national rapeseed oil price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 9400 - 9830 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing is accelerating, and the passage of the 45Z Act is beneficial. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The current inventory is at a historically high level, and the supply pressure is large. The anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed restricts procurement, and the inventory is expected to decrease in the future. Pay attention to the result of the anti - dumping investigation [7]. - **Overall Strategy**: In the short term, the overall trend of oils is fluctuating. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils operate in the ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Pay attention to the strategy of widening the price differences of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the domestic soybean meal futures M2509 contract closed at 2962 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The smooth sowing of US soybeans and the bumper harvest in South America suppress the price, but the low carry - over inventory provides support. The domestic supply increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The import cost of US soybeans increases, and the supply in the domestic off - season decreases. The domestic price is expected to be strong due to the increase in cost and the tightening of supply [8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract operates in the range of [2900, 3000] in the short term and goes long on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (stable), and the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2456 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The increase in supply slows down the price increase, but the reduction of grassroots grain sources and the reduction of inventory support the price [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply in the 24/25 season is expected to be tight, but the supply of substitutes limits the price increase [9]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and goes long on dips at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Unit | Last Trading Day's Closing Price | Two Trading Days Ago's Closing Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.75 | 1,048.50 | 2.25 | | Soybean Meal Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,962 | 2,961 | 1.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | (Yuan/ton) | 2,930 | 2,940 | - 10.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | (US cents/bushel) | 447.00 | 450.75 | - 3.75 | | Corn Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,332 | 2,325 | 7.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 2,320 | 2,320 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | (US cents/pound) | 48.39 | 48.88 | - 0.49 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | (Yuan/ton) | 8,050 | 8,050 | 0.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | (Ringgit/ton) | 3,928 | 3,899 | 29.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 8,700 | 8,600 | 100.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | (Canadian dollars/ton) | 715.50 | 730.80 | - 15.30 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 9,420 | 9,410 | 10.00 | | Egg Main | (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,916 | 2,882 | 34.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | (Yuan/jin) | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 | | Live Pig Futures Main | (Yuan/ton) | 13,640 | 13,560 | 80.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | (Yuan/kg) | 14.59 | 14.59 | 0.00 | [11]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 30 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - **Equity Index**: Trump's administration temporarily restored the tariff policy after the appeals court approved the request to halt the ruling against tariffs. Trump met with Powell and requested a rate cut, but Powell insisted on policy independence. Overall, before the trading volume effectively expands, the structural market of index fluctuations and rotation of thematic sectors is likely to continue [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, the yield curve shifted upward across the board, and market sentiment was weak throughout the day. Although the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond 250004 rebounded to around 1.72%, approaching the upper limit of the yield range previously expected by some investors, and the yields of 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury bonds "filled the gap" created by the tariff shock. Despite substantial benefits such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and a decline in money market interest rates in the past two months, no strong allocation forces stepped in to buy bonds. This deviation between reality and intuition deserves attention [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 Index rose 0.25%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 Index rose 1.89%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggests potential for volatile movement and adjustment risks [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see approach [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.26%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.15%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.65%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows volatile movement and potential for a rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3832.80 | 0.68 | 70602 | 136268 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2673.60 | 0.25 | 37631 | 54235 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5668.60 | 1.89 | 68773 | 112167 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 6031.00 | 2.35 | 166397 | 187832 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.47 | - 0.26 | 72334 | 166334 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 105.87 | - 0.15 | 57177 | 138906 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 118.69 | - 0.65 | 94531 | 95648 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.35 | - 0.06 | 32722 | 110993 | [12]

公司资质 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 29 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4744 元/吨（-14），常州市场价 4650 元/吨（0），主力基差-94 元/吨(+14），广州市场价 4735 元/吨（-15）， 杭州市场价 4670 元/吨（-10）。PVC 库存仍在高位但略低于去年同期， 季节性去库过程中，前期基差走强给盘面一定的支撑。但中长期看，PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，出口以 价换量持稳状态，且出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右），制品出口端关 税影响仍存；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位， 最近库存去化尚可但仍然高企。需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局， 但价格低位，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。宏观面，中国将在 90 天内将 对美国商品的关税从 125%降至 10%，美国将在 90 天内将对中国商品的关 税从 145%降至 30%，短期关税缓和超过预期，但关税对需求的实质影响 预计仍存。上周末特朗普将对欧洲加征 50%关税，落地或有利于短期中 对美出口，后期关税谈判预计持续，继续关注关税进展。国内数据数据 有一定支撑，大 ...