黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/5/30 公司资质 周四，螺纹钢期货价格小幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 142（-4），主要是美国法院裁定特朗普 关税无效，市场风险偏好提升，基本面方面，钢联统计口径产销数据较 好，螺纹钢表需持稳，不过需求季节性走弱只是时间问题，当下钢厂利 润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，螺纹即将进入累库周期，同时随着原料价 格下跌，钢材成本中枢下移。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格 已经跌至长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业 端，现实供需转向宽松，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面小幅反弹，美国法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，国际 宏观情绪有所调整，但最新消息表明美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税暂时 继续生效。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 740 元/湿吨（+8）。普氏 62%指 数 97.20 美元/吨（+0.30），月均 99.24 美元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern before the Dragon Boat Festival, with fundamental support weakened but still present [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the decline of PV installation rush and the arrival of the off - season [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 29, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.1% to 78130 yuan/ton. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but was better than the same period. Low - level inventory supports the premium. The price is expected to be volatile before the festival [1]. - Domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the overall trading was quiet [7]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2696 tons to 32165 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 152375 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 29, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.25% to 20200 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing, and the downstream开工率 is weakening. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [2]. - The spot market transaction was stable, but the overall trading was not active [8]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1723 tons to 51819 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2250 tons to 375075 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 29, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.63% to 120480 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market is tight, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The downstream demand is average. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - The spot price of nickel decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 nickel price was 120700 - 123000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121850 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 174 tons to 22170 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 720 tons to 200142 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 29, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract fell 1.48% to 257870 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and the price is volatile. The production and import of tin have changed, and the inventory is at a medium level. The price fluctuation is expected to increase [6]. - The spot price of tin decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 tin price was 257400 - 260400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 258900 yuan/ton, down 5700 yuan from the previous day [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons to 7908 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2680 tons [15]. Other Metals Zinc - The spot zinc market price decreased, and the trading was light. The import of goods made the supply more abundant, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed [10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 tons to 1675 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2075 tons to 141375 tons [15]. Lead - The spot lead price increased slightly. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 lead price was 16660 - 16760 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 246 tons to 37252 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 288550 tons [15].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：承压运行 国内目前供需形势，4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨，工业库存 95 万吨， 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话，到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨， 去年同期是 214 万吨，23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨，显 然今年比 23 年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并 不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因，棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形 势。到了 01 合约，新棉，目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦 的地 200 万亩，去年种植番茄其他作物，应该都改种棉花，所以预计 新棉丰产至 750 万吨，新年度就宽松了些，所以限制了涨幅。目前短 中期上涨高度受限，一方面，临近 6 月，国际局势博弈，另一方面，到 了 7、8 月份要谨慎，主要是原因是，此时又怕中美谈判不顺，会反复， 届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看，远期国内丰产缓解紧张，多个 50-70 万吨。未来棉价格上涨的高度，受到宏观影响，7、8 月后，谈判结果 是怎样，如果大好，美联储又降息，世界经济好转，棉花回落后还可以 继续涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, with low prices and limited fundamental drivers, and the market is dominated by macro factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 4900 level [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, with the market fluctuating. In the medium - term, supply is relatively sufficient and demand growth is limited, so the 09 contract should be shorted at high levels, and the monthly spread is suitable for positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the 2500 level pressure [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with a significant decline in the three major rubber prices. The market lacks clear guidance, and the bearish sentiment of funds is rising [4]. - The urea market is in a pattern of stable supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support performance at 1775 - 1785 before the Dragon Boat Festival [6]. - The methanol market is in a state of relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for the 09 contract is 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The plastic market has a pattern of high - capacity, low - profit and weak demand. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350 [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC - **Price Information**: On May 28, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4758 yuan/ton (-35), the market price in Changzhou was 4650 yuan/ton (-50), the main basis was -108 yuan/ton (-15), the market price in Guangzhou was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the market price in Hangzhou was 4680 yuan/ton (-40) [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: PVC inventory is still at a high level but slightly lower than the same period last year. In the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate drag, and exports are restricted. There are many new investment plans on the supply side, and the inventory is still high [2]. - **Macro Factors**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% within 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% within 90 days. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Europe [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price Information**: On May 28, the closing price of the caustic soda main SH09 contract was 2456 yuan/ton (+7), the mainstream price in the Shandong market was 880 yuan/ton (0), and the converted - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In June, there are still many device overhauls, with good profits and high - level operation. There is a small amount of new device production expected, and the inventory is neutral. The demand of non - aluminum industries is affected by tariffs, and the alumina industry may resume production [3]. Rubber - **Inventory Information**: As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.74%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.38%. The Chinese natural rubber social inventory decreased by 2.5% [5]. - **Production Capacity Utilization**: As of May 22, 2025, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points [5]. - **Raw Material and Product Prices**: The price of Thai raw material glue was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.1 Thai baht/kg. The price of whole - milk latex was 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.84% [5]. Urea - **Price and Supply Information**: The urea 2509 contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76%. The average daily price in the Henan market was 1829 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The Chinese urea start - up load rate was 87.84%, and the daily average output was 20.36 tons [6]. - **Demand and Inventory Information**: The demand for rice and corn fertilizers has not been fully released. The production capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 37.57%, and the inventory is decreasing. The urea enterprise inventory is 66.8 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons from last week [6]. Methanol - **Price and Supply Information**: The methanol 2509 contract closed at 2206 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The spot price in Taicang was 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The methanol device capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week [8]. - **Demand and Inventory Information**: The methanol - to - olefins industry start - up rate is 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.51 percentage points. The traditional demand is in the off - season. The methanol sample enterprise inventory is 23.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons from last week, and the port inventory is 49.04 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons from last week [8]. Plastic - **Price and Supply Information**: On May 28, the plastic main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50%. The polyethylene production start - up rate was 77.95%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 59.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97% [9]. - **Demand and Inventory Information**: The domestic agricultural film start - up rate is 14.05%, a decrease of 2.63% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate is 49.19%, an increase of 0.49% from last week. The upstream production enterprise and trader inventory has decreased, and the polyethylene warehouse receipt quantity is 5259 lots [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall short - term trend of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The long - term trend is also affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1][2][4] - For different products, there are corresponding trading strategies based on their market conditions Summary by Product 1. Pig - **Short - term**: On May 29, pig prices in various regions were stable. The supply pressure was released in mid - to - late May, and there may be reluctance to sell at the end of the month. The demand increased due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the increase was limited. The short - term pig price has support at the low level and the volatility intensifies [1] - **Long - term**: From May to September 2024, the supply increased. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year, and the supply pressure in the second quarter of 2025 was still large. The pig price still has a risk of decline under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large, and the forward price is under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has support at the bottom, but is under pressure above. The 07 contract has a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13100; the 09 contract has a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13300 - 13400. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then go short [1] 2. Egg - **Short - term**: On May 29, egg prices in some regions were stable. With the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is relieved to some extent. However, the supply pressure is still large, and the egg price is under pressure [2] - **Medium - term**: The high number of chicks replenished from February to April 2025 corresponds to a large number of newly - laid hens from June to August 2025, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2] - **Long - term**: The enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of newly - laid hens in the fourth quarter may decrease month - on - month [2] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about shorting the 07 contract after June. The 08 and 09 contracts should be shorted on rebounds. The 10 contract can be considered for long positions at low prices [2] 3. Oil - **Palm oil**: On May 28, the Malaysian palm oil futures rose. From May 1 - 25, the export data improved, and the production increase slowed down. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected, but the long - term trend is still inventory accumulation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3800 - 4000 for the 08 contract. In China, the inventory recovery is expected to continue [4][5] - **Soybean oil**: On May 28, the US soybean oil futures fell. The macro - risk has weakened, but the uncertainty of US biodiesel policy still exists. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1080 for the 07 contract. In China, the soybean arrival volume is large from May to July, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [4][6] - **Rapeseed oil**: The old - crop inventory in Canada continues to decline, and the new - crop sowing is normal. The ICE rapeseed is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed [7] - **Overall strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. The spread expansion strategy of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean can be concerned in the long term [8] 4. Soybean Meal - **Short - term**: On May 28, the US soybean futures fell. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, the soybean arrival volume increases, and the soybean meal price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to gradually return to its fundamental value and be strong [8] - **Long - term**: The import cost of US soybeans increases, and the supply is expected to be tight. The domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [8] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract should be operated in the range of [2860, 3000] in the short term, and go long on pullbacks after mid - to - early June [8] 5. Corn - **Short - term**: On May 28, the corn price in some regions was stable or slightly decreased. The supply increased, and the upward trend slowed down, but the price has support due to the reduction of grass - roots grain sources [9] - **Long - term**: The supply and demand are tightening marginally, but the price increase space is limited due to the supplement of substitutes [9] - **Strategy**: The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The prices of various futures and spot products showed different changes on May 28 and May 29, including increases, decreases, and stability [10]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 29 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 28 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约下跌 0.15%至 77870 元/吨。宏 观扰动减弱，但美方不断施压，中美仍在博弈，关税问题上反复的可能 性仍存。基本面上，刚果（金）卡库拉部分地区因地震因素开采作业短 期暂停，巴拿马铜矿则复产前景不明，矿端干扰仍在持续。铜精矿现货 TC 跌至-44 美元/吨一线有所企稳，冶炼厂成本压力限制了价格进一步 下行空间，但前期检修的炼厂开始复产，供应短缺压力难以改观。消费 情况，5 月环比 4 月减弱，但对比同期要好。社会库存经历了 4 月快速 去库后维持低位，5 月以来一直处于微幅累库的状态，现货升水也有所 走弱，但低位库存继续支撑升水保持强势。月底市场需求难有明显回升， 但端午节假或有一定的备库情绪。整体看，基本面对铜价的支撑虽有所 减弱但仍然存在，沪铜节前或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 28 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.17%至 20095 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证有进一步升级，AXIS 矿区被划入 战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产可能。氧化铝运行产能 ...

黑色产业日报 ◆ 双焦 焦煤：供应方面，国内主产区煤矿生产维持常态化，但受市场悲观情绪 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格继续偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3110 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 146（+6）。基本面方面，螺纹钢表 需回落，需求开始季节性走弱，而当下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不 足，螺纹即将进入累库周期，同时随着原料价格下跌，钢材成本中枢下 移。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经低于长流程成本，静 态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内 出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需转向宽松，短期 在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD， Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿石盘面震荡运行，主要受出口热度下降和煤炭阴跌影响。现 货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 732 元/湿吨（-1）。普氏 62%指数 96.9 美元/吨 （+0.45），月均 99.35 美元/吨。PBF 基差 75 元/吨（-1）。供给端： 最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,729.10 万吨，环+23。45 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The US consumer confidence in May saw the largest increase in four years. Trump rarely praised the EU and was encouraged by the acceleration of trade negotiations. Japan's Ministry of Finance rarely "surveyed" the bond market and considered reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds, leading to a violent rebound in Japanese bonds. In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the trading volume is insufficient. The stock index may fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, without obvious negative news, the bond market yields rose by about 1bp across the board, with the long - end adjustment larger than the medium - and short - end. From the institutional net subscription desensitization data, it seems that pure bond funds experienced a large - scale redemption on Tuesday. The last similar redemption was in mid - March when banks began to cash in floating profits. There were also rumors in the market that commercial banks' motivation to cash in floating profits at the end of June was stronger than before. From the recent market micro - trends, treasury bonds performed weakly relative to policy financial bonds, and the bond - swap basis widened slightly, indicating a local supply - demand "imbalance" in the market. When "limited short - term downward space" and "being bullish but not buying" become market consensus, the impact of specific types of institutional trading behaviors on the market is magnified in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 index fell 0.51%, that of SSE 50 index fell 0.51%, that of CSI 500 index fell 0.24%, and that of CSI 1000 index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate weakly and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.26%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it will fluctuate and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3809.20 | - 0.51 | 54529 | 140116 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2668.60 | - 0.51 | 28167 | 51671 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5578.00 | - 0.24 | 52001 | 109673 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 5915.00 | - 0.10 | 140778 | 186517 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.73 | - 0.11 | 58575 | 165848 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 106.03 | - 0.03 | 43924 | 128934 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 119.46 | - 0.26 | 62401 | 92091 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.41 | - 0.02 | 32028 | 104798 | [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of rebar futures is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to potential supply - demand contradictions and lower cost centers [1]. - The iron ore 09 contract is viewed as oscillating in the near future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The coking coal market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand, coking enterprise profits, and imported coal supply [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and steel mill profit repair [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 140 (+4) [1]. - Last week, rebar apparent demand declined, production increased, and inventory depletion slowed. Demand is about to seasonally weaken, while steel mills have good profits and lack the willingness to cut production actively. The cost center of steel has shifted down due to falling raw material prices [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price is below the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly under the background of low valuation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures market was weak, affected by the decline in export heat and the slow decline of coal prices. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (-7), the Platts 62% index was 96.45 US dollars/ton (-1.2), and the monthly average was 99.50 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 76 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,913.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 213.94. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 243.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17 [1]. - There are more blast furnace overhauls recently, mainly in Hebei and Northeast China, and the overhaul time is long. The hot metal output may continue to decline, but the amplitude will not be large. The iron ore 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the near future [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in the main production areas maintain normal production, but some areas have phased production restrictions. The import volume at the Mongolian port remains low, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. With the increasing expectation of the second round of coke price cuts, the market risk - aversion sentiment intensifies, and the enthusiasm of coal washing enterprises for starting work is limited [3]. - The coking coal market has short - term supply - demand contradictions, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products, the profit repair of coking enterprises, and the change of imported coal supply [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, coking enterprises in the main production areas maintain a normal production rhythm, and some areas limit production due to narrowed profit margins, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable [3]. - In terms of inventory, most coking enterprises maintain low - inventory operation, but some resources face sales pressure due to the slowdown of steel mill procurement. There is a bargaining space in the market due to quality differentiation [3]. - In terms of demand, the scope of blast furnace overhauls in steel mills has expanded, and the rigid demand has declined marginally. Steel mills maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and mainstream steel mills have initiated the second round of price cuts [3]. - The coke market faces a pattern of double - sided pressure on supply and demand in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of terminal demand for finished products and the profit repair of steel mills [3]. Industry News - From May 19th to May 25th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.1 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners is 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [4]. - In April 2025, except for a slight increase in the procurement cost of steam coal, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, among which the procurement costs of coking coal, pulverized coal injection, domestic iron concentrate, and imported lump ore decreased significantly [4]. - The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued an implementation plan, aiming to complete about 500,000 vehicle scrap and replacement updates and more than 8 million home appliance trade - ins in 2025 [4]. - Guangxi adjusted the deed tax rates for individuals purchasing first - and second - home properties [4].