Group 1 - The report highlights a significant divergence in the performance of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry in 2025, with the CXO and innovative drug-related sectors showing substantial growth, while the medical service sector is expected to gradually recover in 2026 due to a low base effect from 2025 [2][6][58] - The overall performance of the A-share market was positive in 2025, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector ranking 10th with a growth of 34.95%, while the CXO sector led with a growth of 58.71% [6][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of "product-driven" companies, which are expected to enter a profitability cycle as they recover from the impacts of centralized procurement and increase their R&D investments [2][29] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is projected to continue its upward trend, with business development (BD) opportunities abroad being a key focus, indicating the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [30][34] - The medical device sector is also expected to follow a similar recovery path as innovative drugs, with increasing R&D investments and a growing number of approved innovative medical devices [43][45] - The medical service sector, despite facing short-term pressures, is anticipated to gradually recover in 2026, supported by an aging population and increasing demand for healthcare services [58] Group 3 - The report suggests specific companies to watch in various sectors, including medical devices (e.g., Sanyou Medical, Aikang Medical), innovative drugs (e.g., Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical), and medical services (e.g., Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical) [2][29] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation remains at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.82 times as of October 31, 2025, indicating potential for upward adjustment [19][20] - The report highlights the importance of key product advancements and performance realization in the innovative drug sector, particularly for products like PD-1/VEGF, which have shown promising clinical data and significant market interest [39][40]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 5 日 策略点评 重视人形机器人板块新的 Alpha 机会 建议关注 A 股机器人板块新的 Alpha 机会。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 2024Q3 后，人形机器人指数上涨主要可划分为四阶段：1）"924"、 "926"大盘反转驱动；2）2025Q1 的"春季躁动"阶段；3）2025 年 4 月 7 号贸易摩擦"大跌"后的产业趋势修复；以及 4）2025 年 7-9 月的科 技主升行情阶段。 今年 9 月中旬后，尽管某种程度上可视为机器人行业 Beta 的中证 2000 等指数仍保持在高位震荡区间，但人形机器人指数 Alpha 收益却不断走 低。 我们认为核心在于板块交易的高拥挤度受到多方面警惕、企业同质化加 剧、样机 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to PetroChina with a target price of HK$9.62 for H shares and RMB10.92 for A shares, indicating an expected total absolute return greater than 10% over the next twelve months [6][7][8]. Core Insights - PetroChina's recent reverse roadshow in the Sichuan-Chongqing area highlighted significant potential for increasing natural gas output and plans for downstream gas utilization, which are expected to enhance the company's earnings resilience amid potential declines in oil prices [6][8]. - The growing contribution from PetroChina's gas value-chain operations is anticipated to bolster its earnings stability, providing a buffer against fluctuations in oil prices [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - PetroChina is focusing on enhancing its natural gas production capabilities and downstream utilization strategies, which are crucial for its growth trajectory [6][8]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the increasing emphasis on natural gas operations will position PetroChina favorably in a market that may experience volatility in oil prices [6][8]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation to maintain a "BUY" rating reflects confidence in PetroChina's strategic initiatives and their potential to deliver strong returns in the near future [6][7][8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing attention on bank-supplied housing, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, which has led to declining prices and heightened market concerns [12][28] - It emphasizes that the increase in bank-supplied housing is a response to rising non-performing asset pressures and is part of banks' routine asset disposal operations aimed at liquidity recovery [12][28] - The report suggests that the impact of bank-supplied housing on the overall real estate market is limited, with a small market share and low transaction volumes [28] Summary by Sections 1. What is Bank-Supplied Housing? - Bank-supplied housing refers to properties acquired by banks through the disposal of non-performing loans, which are then sold or rented out directly by the banks [11][12] - The main sources of these properties include loans defaulted by individuals or companies, leading to the banks taking ownership [11][12] 2. Recent Trends in Bank-Supplied Housing - The number of bank-supplied housing listings has increased, with 16,000 units listed in 2024, a 73% year-on-year increase, and 14,000 units in the first ten months of 2025, showing a 4% increase from 2024 [22][27] - However, the total volume remains significantly lower than that of auctioned properties, with bank-supplied housing listings being less than one-eighteenth of auctioned properties [22][28] 3. Distribution and Characteristics of Bank-Supplied Housing - The majority of bank-supplied housing is concentrated in lower-tier cities, with first-tier cities accounting for only 0.6% of listings [30][31] - The properties are predominantly unfinished (59%) or simply decorated (38%), with only 3% being fully furnished [40][48] - A significant portion (86%) of the listings is priced below 1 million yuan, reflecting the current market conditions [47][49] 4. Transaction Dynamics - The transaction rate for bank-supplied housing is low, with only 7% of the 14,000 units listed in the first ten months of 2025 being sold, compared to 20% for auctioned properties [28] - Most transactions occur at or near the starting price, indicating a market heavily influenced by price sensitivity [28] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market shares in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [28] 2. Smaller firms that have shown significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [28] 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models, such as China Resources and Swire Properties [28]

Core Insights - The report highlights that China National Airlines is the only flag carrier in China and has entered the top tier of global air transport companies, with a comprehensive international route network and a balanced domestic and international presence [1][5][6] - The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, influenced by global supply chain disruptions, leading to a decline in major aircraft manufacturers' order fulfillment capabilities [1][8] - The continuous recovery of the tourism market is expected to boost air travel demand, with the average price of aviation kerosene decreasing compared to the same period last year, enhancing the company's profitability [1][8] Company Overview - China National Airlines was established in October 2002 through the merger of China International Airlines, China Aviation Corporation, and China Southwest Airlines, and it went public in Hong Kong and London in December 2004, followed by a listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2006 [6] - The company's main business is air passenger services, which typically accounts for nearly 90% of total revenue, projected to be 91% in 2024 [6] - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach CNY 166.699 billion, representing an 18.14% year-on-year growth, with a gross profit margin of 5.11% [6] Industry Performance - Over the past 15 years, the air passenger transport volume has increased by 172.8%, with domestic passenger transport volume expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86%, marking a historical high [7][8] - The cargo and mail transport volume is projected to reach 8.983 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.15% [7] - The commercial aviation market in China is dominated by three major airlines: China National Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which together accounted for 62.64% of total transport turnover in 2024 [7] Key Factors Influencing Performance - Aircraft supply is constrained due to the "step-down" growth trend of China's civil aviation fleet and disruptions in global supply chains affecting aircraft manufacturers' order fulfillment [8] - Travel demand is expected to rise as per capita flight frequency in China has room for improvement compared to developed countries, alongside a steady increase in GDP and a recovering tourism market [8] - Oil prices and exchange rates are critical factors affecting airline profitability, with the average price of aviation kerosene at USD 86.01 per barrel in the first ten months of 2025, down 10.90% year-on-year [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for China National Airlines from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 174.715 billion, CNY 188.020 billion, and CNY 205.245 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 7.6%, and 9.2% respectively [9] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is CNY 1.561 billion, CNY 6.503 billion, and CNY 10.265 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 0.09, CNY 0.37, and CNY 0.59 [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the improvement of the Black-Litterman (BL) model through the integration of nested cycle theory, which enhances the Sharpe ratio and win rate of asset portfolios, recommending an increase in A-shares and US Treasuries while gradually reducing US stock positions for 2026 [2][3][10]. Group 1: BL Model Overview - The BL model combines market implied equilibrium returns with investor subjective views weighted by confidence levels, resulting in more robust expected returns for asset allocation [8][10]. - The model addresses the high sensitivity of traditional mean-variance models to parameters and incorporates subjective investor views, making it more practical [10][11]. Group 2: Impact of Nested Cycle Theory - The improvement of the BL model is primarily based on subjective views derived from nested cycle theory, which assesses the performance of major asset classes under different cycle phases [10][11]. - The model outputs significantly enhance the Sharpe ratio of portfolios, allowing for better risk-adjusted returns [10][12]. Group 3: Asset Class Outlook for 2026 - The report forecasts a gradual shift to a de-stocking phase for major economies in 2026, suggesting an increase in allocations to A-shares and US Treasuries while reducing US stock positions [2][3][10]. - The model's asset return predictions will be based on historical average data from the transition from passive to active de-stocking phases [25][26]. Group 4: Performance of Asset Classes - Historical data indicates that during the passive de-stocking phase, equities outperform other asset classes with an average annual return of 27.74% and a win rate of 60% [17][18]. - In the active re-stocking phase, equities and commodities show strong performance, with equities achieving an average return of 40.01% and a win rate of 83% [17][18]. - Bonds perform best during the active de-stocking and passive re-stocking phases, with average returns of 10.28% and 3.61%, respectively [17][18]. Group 5: Model Implementation Steps - The BL model involves several steps: calculating prior expected returns, inputting subjective views, calculating posterior expected returns, and optimizing the asset allocation [21][22][23]. - The model's implementation requires historical return data and subjective forecasts from investment managers, with constraints on asset allocation ratios [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with a significant drop of 45.8% compared to the same period last year [5] - The launch of commercial real estate REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is being piloted, indicating a new phase of development for the REITs market in China [5] - The report highlights a shift in the real estate market dynamics, with a focus on stabilizing the fundamentals and exploring new consumption scenarios in commercial real estate [6] Summary by Sections 1) New Home Market Tracking - In the week of November 22-28, 2025, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 225.3 million square meters, up 8.6% month-on-month but down 45.8% year-on-year [5][15] - Transaction volumes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varied performance, with first-tier cities seeing a 50.3% increase month-on-month [15][21] - New home inventory in 12 cities was 11,379 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [40][41] 2) Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transaction area was 161.7 million square meters, down 4.4% month-on-month and 26.0% year-on-year [47][51] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in transaction volumes, while second-tier cities saw a decrease of 19.3% [51][55] 3) Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 2,050 million square meters, up 7.3% month-on-month but down 28.2% year-on-year [62][63] - The average land price was 2,282.4 yuan per square meter, reflecting an 18.5% increase month-on-month but a 16.6% decrease year-on-year [64][68] - The land premium rate was 1.3%, down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month but up 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [68] 4) Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is soliciting opinions on the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which aims to enhance the regulatory framework and operational standards for these funds [5] 5) Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for China National Aviation [1][6] Core Views - China National Aviation is the only flag carrier in China and has entered the first tier of global aviation companies. The growth of the civil aviation fleet in China is showing a "step-down" trend, while the continuous warming of the tourism market will help drive demand for air travel. The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased compared to the same period last year, which is beneficial for improving the company's profitability [1][4][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China National Aviation has a broad international route network and a balanced domestic and international network, covering economically developed and densely populated areas in China. The company aims to build a global leading airline by leveraging its operational advantages in Beijing [1][18][25]. Business Model - The main business is air passenger services, which typically account for nearly 90% of total revenue. In 2024, air passenger revenue is expected to account for 91% of total revenue, while air cargo and postal services will account for only 4% [26][28]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record total revenue of RMB 166.7 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 129.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.31% [43][48]. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 1.56 billion in 2025, with an EPS of RMB 0.09 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The aviation industry in China has seen a 172.8% increase in passenger transport volume over the past 15 years, with ticket prices gradually becoming market-oriented. The three major airlines (China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) account for 62.64% of the total transport turnover in 2024 [56][58][60]. Operational Metrics - In 2024, the available seat kilometers (ASK) reached 356.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.74%, while the revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) reached 284.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.76%, resulting in a passenger load factor of 79.78% [28][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [1][47]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 1.13% in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. Despite this, the sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.06 percentage points [1][12]. - The winter season typically sees a slowdown in cultural and tourism activities, but interest in winter snow tourism is rising, particularly in northern regions [1][4]. - The upcoming full closure of Hainan Island on December 18 is expected to positively impact the local tourism industry, with preparations already in place for this transition [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was relatively better compared to the overall market, with the CSI 300 index down by 2.19% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.55% during the same period [1][12]. - Among the sub-sectors, education saw a rise of 3.67%, while tourism and retail sectors faced declines of 4.03% and 10.48%, respectively [1][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., among others. It also highlights hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotels that are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [1][4]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is anticipated to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to monitor companies like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [1][4]. Industry Company News - Notable developments include the launch of the 2025 China Duty Free Year-End Festival, which aims to enhance sales across various duty-free outlets [1][29]. - Junting Hotel is undergoing a potential change in control, which may affect its market position [1][29]. Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel is showing signs of recovery post-pandemic, with significant increases in passenger flow. The report notes that in the first ten months of 2025, cross-regional passenger flow reached 56.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [1][34].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is at 49.2%, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor recovery within the contraction zone [6][7] - The new orders index for November is also at 49.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, likely driven by the upcoming holiday shopping season [6][7] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability at the threshold level [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - Manufacturing purchasing and inventory intentions are still in the contraction zone, suggesting a need for further improvement in procurement sentiment [6][7] - Fixed asset investment projects, particularly in infrastructure and affordable housing, are expected to gain momentum towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next [6][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% to 13146.72 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led with increases of 2.85% and 2.81%, respectively, while agriculture and forestry sectors saw declines [4] Sector Analysis - The manufacturing sector's price index showed a recovery in November, with the main raw material purchase price index rising by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating a high level of activity [7] - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials industries are sensitive to downstream fixed asset investments, with some signs of demand recovery in November [8]