证券研究报告 基础材料 波涌回调藏富路，且将机遇入囊中 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 中期策略 压力与机遇并存，把握回调后的战略配置机遇 "逆全球化"背景下，黄金投资框架发生变化，在矿产金供给相对稳定的前 提下，央行等资产配置需求的大规模增加将利于金价长期上涨。美国通胀预 期、财政赤字、降息预期或均利好黄金，看好金价在特朗普任期内涨至 4500 美金/盎司以上。针对铜，短期需谨防关税扰动下需求提前透支后的回调风 险，长期看好其供需格局的持续改善。针对铝，25H1 光伏抢装和抢出口导 致需求高增长，尽管三季度或存在需求走弱预期，但电解铝价格下跌幅度或 有限；成本下降和供给硬约束或帮助电解铝利润在 25H2-26 年再扩张。针 对钢铁，25 年供给侧优化或重启，铁矿供需格局或趋松，钢价上行空间有 限但行业利润有望持续改善。 黄金：理解边际定价逻辑，特朗普任期或突破 4500 美金/盎司 在历次黄金上涨大周期中，全球经济大变局往往强化特定要素，催生新的边 际买家，重塑黄金投资框架。理解边际买家对价格的主导作用，有助于理解 2022 年以来金价的持续上涨。我们认为，除非美国恢复高增长低通胀并行的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Robovan unmanned logistics vehicle is accelerating commercialization driven by strong demand in urban distribution, particularly in the express delivery sector [1] - The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles is at a turning point due to the convergence of cost reduction, technological advancements, and downstream demand for cost efficiency [2] - The business model allows downstream companies to purchase unmanned logistics vehicles, which are then operated through a software app, leading to significant cost savings [3] - Current regulations and road rights are not unified, with low-speed urban distribution being the primary operational scenario for unmanned logistics vehicles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The unmanned logistics vehicle Robovan is gaining traction in the express delivery sector, with potential expansion into other urban distribution areas such as fresh produce and supermarkets [1] - Key players include startups with L4 autonomous driving technology and logistics experience, as well as delivery companies and multi-scenario L4 companies [1] Cost and Technology - The manufacturing cost of unmanned logistics vehicles has decreased to the mid-ten thousand yuan range due to the scaling of suppliers in the passenger vehicle autonomous driving industry [2] - The application of end-to-end large models in autonomous driving has reduced the reliance on high-precision maps, facilitating quicker delivery and operational flexibility [2] Business Model - The business model involves suppliers conducting road data testing and vehicle production, with downstream companies operating the vehicles via a software app [3] - The pricing model includes a vehicle purchase or leasing option, along with a software subscription service, which is more cost-effective than traditional labor costs [3] Regulatory Environment - Road rights for unmanned vehicles vary significantly across regions, with no national standard, limiting the deployment of unmanned logistics vehicles primarily to low-speed urban delivery [4] - In 2022, there were approximately 14.59 million vehicles used for urban distribution, indicating a vast potential market for unmanned logistics vehicles [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the Southeast Asian fintech sector [8] Core Insights - Southeast Asia's fintech industry has significant growth potential, driven by a robust macroeconomic environment, improving infrastructure, and a friendly policy landscape [13][16] - The four main areas of fintech development are digital payments, internet lending, insurtech, and virtual assets [17][20] - The region's GDP growth is approximately 5%, with a population of 630 million, predominantly under 40 years old, providing a strong consumer base [22][23] Digital Payments - Digital payment penetration is expected to increase, with 44% of transactions still conducted in cash as of 2024, compared to 5.8% in China [39][40] - The COVID-19 pandemic has shifted consumer habits towards online payments, with 33% of consumers using e-wallets for the first time during the pandemic [40] - The main digital payment methods are card payments and e-wallets, with a competitive landscape lacking a dominant player like Alipay or WeChat Pay in China [38][50] Internet Lending - The internet lending market in Southeast Asia is projected to grow from $48 billion in 2022 to $71 billion in 2024, with a penetration rate of only 1.8% [4][14] - The lending market is characterized by high pricing limits (18-180%), small loan amounts (average $18), and short durations, providing substantial profit margins [4][14] - The risk profile is relatively stable, with SeaMoney's 90-day overdue rate at 1.1%, lower than domestic platforms in China [14][16] Insurtech - The insurtech market in Southeast Asia is in its early stages, with a market size of approximately $2.4 billion in 2024, expected to reach $7.5 billion by 2030 [5][14] - The penetration rate of insurtech is low, at about 1.5-3.1%, compared to 8.8% in China [5][14] - Three main business models exist: insurtech platforms, full-stack insurtechs, and insurtech enablers, with the latter focusing on B2B solutions [5][14] Virtual Assets - Southeast Asia shows high interest in virtual assets, with six countries ranking in the top 20 for global cryptocurrency adoption, and Indonesia ranked third [6][14] - The regulatory environment is generally supportive, with governments encouraging the development of the virtual asset market while managing risks [6][14] - Indonesia's cryptocurrency transaction volume reached $157.1 billion from July 2023 to June 2024, the highest in the region [6][14]

多元金融 证券研究报告 十问稳定币 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 动态点评 美、港（中国香港）立法凸显战略考量 2025 年 5 月 19 日和 21 日，美国和中国香港分别通过稳定币相关立法，明 确了稳定币监管框架，这是继比特币 ETF 之后，对加密货币认可的又一里 程碑事件。美国和中国香港对稳定币的监管规则制定持积极态度，稳定币被 视为未来数字金融基础设施的重要组成部分，均希望通过正确管理稳定币， 进一步扩大法币的影响力，巩固各自金融中心地位。我们梳理了十条问题， 作为投资者了解稳定币的参考。 1. 什么是稳定币？稳定币是基于区块链技术的加密货币，客户通过支付法 币获得区块链上的稳定币。稳定币主要与法币（美元为主）以固定兑换比例 挂钩，才称之为稳定币。截至 2025 年 6 月 2 日全球稳定币总市值超过 2,300 亿美元，其中 USDT 和 USDC 合计市值 2,140 亿美元，占比约九成。 2. 稳定币的主要用途是什么？稳定币是一种较为纯粹的支付手段，其价值 锚定法币，没有利息，增值属性弱。稳定币省略了传统支付方式中必须的中 心节点和基础设施，从而起到降低支付成本，提升支付效 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic trends since 2025 have shown surprises, challenges, and opportunities, with a notable recovery in domestic demand and production efficiency improvements driven by high-tech investments [1][12][13] - The real GDP growth forecast for 2025 is maintained at around 5%, with nominal GDP and domestic demand expected to slightly recover compared to last year, primarily supported by the real estate sector and service industry price stabilization [3][36][39] - The adjustment in the real estate cycle is expected to stabilize and rebound consumer spending, with significant potential for service consumption recovery in the second half of 2025 [4][36] Group 2 - The high-tech sector is experiencing a resurgence in capital expenditure, particularly in AI and advanced manufacturing, which is anticipated to accelerate investment growth [4][13][25] - The weakening of the US dollar and declining oil prices are expected to enhance global liquidity, creating structural opportunities for China to expand domestic demand and asset markets [2][19] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is likely to accelerate, leading to increased demand for RMB assets and a potential revaluation of the RMB in the context of a weakening dollar [5][19][31]

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. tariff fluctuations are expected to decrease, with a focus on domestic policies as the Trump administration faces feedback constraints from judicial bodies and the market [2][12]. - The total level of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global imports is projected to stabilize around 15%, with strategic goods like steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals likely to retain high tariffs [2][12]. - The "Beautiful Bill" passed by the House is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.1 trillion over ten years, with the deficit rate potentially rising to 7% by 2026 [3][13][25]. Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - Following a negative growth in Q1, the U.S. economic growth momentum is anticipated to recover marginally from May onwards, with annual growth expected to reach 1.6% in 2025 [3][27]. - The report predicts that consumer confidence and corporate investment willingness will improve due to fiscal expansion and reduced tariff impacts, contributing to a more stable labor market with an unemployment rate around 4.5% [3][27][30]. - The report highlights that while the labor market remains resilient, new non-farm employment is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies [30]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain sticky, with projections indicating it will stay above 3% annually through 2026, influenced by fiscal expansion and tariff policies [3][4][28]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement preventive rate cuts in late 2025, although high long-term interest rates may limit the effectiveness of these cuts [4][10]. - The report suggests that the high yield on U.S. Treasury bonds could become a significant constraint on fiscal and tariff policies, as well as market performance [4][10][40]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation premium of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets is expected to continue shrinking, with rising risk premiums and challenges in bond yields [4][10]. - The report forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will remain in the range of 4.5% to 5% in the second half of 2025, which could negatively impact stock valuations [4][10][41]. - The report notes that the rapid increase in Treasury yields could drag down stock valuations, indicating a potential volatility source for risk assets [4][10][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive and electronics sectors [6] Core Insights - The Robo X industry, represented by Robotaxi and Robovan, is experiencing accelerated commercialization driven by policy and industry resonance, with significant market attention due to multiple catalysts [10][11] - The global and China L4 autonomous driving market is projected to reach USD 15.35 trillion and USD 581 billion respectively by 2030, with a CAGR of 104% and 105% from 2025 to 2030 [10] - The report suggests focusing on core operational platforms, high-growth hardware suppliers, and innovative application scenario developers as investment opportunities [44] Summary by Sections Robotaxi - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with leading companies like Pony.ai, WeRide, and Loongrun expanding fleet sizes and increasing order volumes [2][12] - Pony.ai's Robotaxi service revenue grew by 200% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while WeRide's revenue contribution reached 22.3%, up 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][19] - The policy environment is improving, with major cities expanding operational areas and refining license management, which lowers operational costs for companies [12][19] Robovan - Robovan is showing significant potential in logistics, with a positive cycle of "cost reduction-application validation-scale expansion" forming [3][23] - The hardware costs have drastically decreased, with models like the New Stone X3 dropping from CNY 200,000 to CNY 70,000, and the Jiushi Intelligent E6 model priced at CNY 19,800, a 91% reduction [3][23] - Major players are accelerating financing and production expansion, with Jiushi Intelligent targeting the delivery of 10,000 units in 2025 [3][24] Broader Applications - The Robo X concept extends beyond Robotaxi and Robovan to include applications like Robosweeper and Robotruck, which are also seeing accelerated commercialization [4][14] - Robosweeper has been deployed in multiple cities, reducing labor costs and improving operational efficiency [4][40] - Drone logistics is emerging as a key area, with significant potential in last-mile delivery and complex terrain transport, supported by favorable policies [41][42] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on core operational platforms that have achieved scalable operations and possess clear cost reduction paths, such as Pony.ai [44] - High-growth component suppliers in critical areas like lidar and high-performance chips are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the autonomous vehicle rollout [44] - Companies that integrate autonomous driving technology with specific industry applications, such as smart warehousing and last-mile delivery robots, are identified as innovative scenario developers [44]

证券研究报告 工业/基础材料 5 月建筑新订单/地产销售环比改善 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十二周） 本周观点：5 月地产销售环比改善，新产业投资高景气 (2.0) (1.3) (0.5) 0.3 1.0 05/23 05/25 05/27 05/29 (%) 建筑与工程 建材 沪深300 (2.00) (0.50) 1.00 2.50 4.00 陶瓷 建筑装修 建筑设计及服务 专用材料 其他建材 建筑施工 水泥 玻璃 (%) 一周内各行业涨跌图 (6.0) (3.3) (0.5) 2.3 5.0 房 地 产 服 务 环 保 航 天 军 工 医 药 健 康 通 信 农 林 牧 渔 计 算 机 交 通 运 输 传 媒 石 油 天 然 气 综 合 房 地 产 开 发 建 筑 与 工 程 商 业 贸 易 保 险 轻 工 制 造 社 会 服 务 证 券 银 行 公 用 事 业 机 械 设 备 建 材 煤 炭 教 育 和 人 力 资 源 纺 织 服 装 电 子 基 础 化 工 食 品 饮 料 家 用 电 器 有 色 金 属 钢 铁 电 力 设 备 与 新 能 源 汽 车 多 元 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is expected to stabilize and gradually recover, driven by improvements in net profit margins, asset turnover, and an increase in equity multiplier [2][3][15] - The broad-based valuation recovery of Chinese assets is ongoing, with the CSI 800 forward P/E stabilizing around 19x, reflecting a premium of approximately 5% over MSCI Emerging Markets excluding China [4][39] - Key assets such as A50, consumer sectors, and financials are expected to lead the recovery, demonstrating strong fundamental resilience during the past three years [2][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that the profit cycle is gradually re-emerging, with A-share profit growth expected to recover, alleviating previous concerns about a long-term decline [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of five investment themes: RMB appreciation, technology cycles, inventory cycles, capacity cycles, and capital market reforms [6][39] - The report predicts that the non-financial A-share net profit growth rate for 2025 will be approximately 8.3%, with a reasonable valuation for the Shanghai Composite Index estimated at around 13.1x [9][45]

证券研究报告 受降雨天气影响，端午出行略显平淡 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 端午假期出行较为平淡，短途增速稍好于中长途 交通部预计，2025 年端午假期（5/31-6/2）累计全社会跨区域人员流动量达 到 6.57 亿人次，同比（24 年端午假期，下同）提升 3.0%，低于交通运输 部 5 月 29 日的初步预测 7.7%，也低于五一假期（yoy+7.9%）和春节假期 （yoy+5.8%）。我们认为出行较为平淡，主要由于南方地区雨水频繁，且今 年端午假期在高考前仅约一个星期，进一步抑制旅游出行。分出行方式来看， 公路客运量同比增长 3.1%，高于铁路和民航 2.3%/1.2%的增幅，三天假期 短途旅游需求稍好。结合子行业景气趋势，考虑暑运旺季，推荐航空板块， 首推中国国航 A/H，同时推荐皖通高速 A/H、浙江沪杭甬、粤高速 A。 航空：端午假期时长较短，同比增速低于总体 据交通部预计，端午假期民航客运量日均 186.7 万人次，同比增长 1.22%， 同比增速低于铁路/公路的 2.3%/3.1%，主要由于端午假期仅三天，对于中 长 途 的 航 空 出 行 催 化 作 用 较 ...