Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is currently facing short-term pressure with expectations for gradual improvement in the future [1] - The product structure is under pressure, with a decrease in the number of distributors [1] - The company is optimizing its channel structure to maintain a stable value system and ensure reasonable profit margins for customers [9] Revenue and Profitability - For the first half of 2025, the company's high-end and mid-range liquor revenues were CNY 1.305 billion and CNY 87 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 14.00% and an increase of 68.35% in Q2 [1] - The company's gross and net profit margins for the first half of 2025 decreased by 1.71 and 7.07 percentage points to 79.26% and 7.04%, respectively [2] - The sales and management expense ratios increased by 2.58 and 3.69 percentage points to 36.35% and 19.04%, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [2] Financial Forecast - The revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 have been revised down to -18%, 4%, and 5%, respectively, with net profit growth rates adjusted to -29%, 7%, and 9% [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is CNY 4.278 billion, with a net profit of CNY 955 million [4] Market Performance - The company experienced a decrease in domestic distributors, down to 51 from the end of 2024, while international distributors remained at 2 [1] - Domestic revenue in Q2 2025 was CNY 470 million, a decline of 35.17%, while international revenue increased by 40.01% to CNY 22 million [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.53 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 720 million yuan, down 24.63% [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 720 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 48.48%, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, down 70.91% [1] - The company is focusing on three upgrades: market upgrade, structural upgrade, and brand upgrade, while actively adjusting tactical approaches based on market conditions [1] - The product structure is under pressure, particularly in the domestic market, which saw a significant decline in Q2 [1] - Profitability has decreased, with an increase in management expenses [1] - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to -23% for 2025, 2% for 2026, and 4% for 2027, with net profit growth estimates adjusted to -24% for 2025, and 6% for both 2026 and 2027 [1][2] - The stock price is expected to recover before the fundamentals, hence the "Buy" rating is maintained [1] Financial Summary - For 2024, the projected revenue is 6.015 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.89%. For 2025, it is expected to drop to 4.631 billion yuan, a decrease of 23%, followed by a recovery to 4.724 billion yuan in 2026 and 4.913 billion yuan in 2027 [2] - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 1.655 billion yuan, with a decrease of 3.83%. The net profit is expected to decline to 1.265 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a slight recovery in the subsequent years [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.76 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 2.11 yuan in 2025, and gradually increasing to 2.36 yuan by 2027 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Standing at the end of September and looking forward to October, investors' judgments on the bond market in the next stage are quite divided. There is a consensus on maintaining a preference for medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds, and the proportion of bullish sentiment has increased. The funding situation, the equity market, and institutional behavior have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of September, there are four mainstream expectations for the bond market in October: 1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields still show a state of "capped on the upper end and floored on the lower end"; 2) The bullish sentiment in the bond market has slightly increased, and the proportion of those who think it's time to increase positions has significantly risen, while expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are divided; 3) Investors' overall expectations for the economy in September have changed. Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market are the core issues that investors focus on, and the game of institutional behavior has returned to the focus of investors; 4) Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, while their preference for convertible bonds has declined [2][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Investor Bullish Sentiment Rises - A bond market survey questionnaire "What to Expect from the Bond Market in October?" was released on September 25, 2025. By 00:00 on September 28, 204 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors and individual investors such as bank self - operations, securities firm self - operations, and public funds/special accounts [9]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields 10 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 44% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive), 30% think it will be in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), 14% think it will fall below 1.70%, and about 12% think it will exceed 1.80%. Regarding the upper limit, 49% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive), about 29% think it will be below 1.85%, and 11% each think it will be in the range of 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive) and above 1.95%. Current investors' expectations for the rise of 10 - year treasury bond interest rates have gradually increased compared with the August survey results, but they remain cautious about the judgment of breaking through key points [11]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 34% of investors each think it will fall in the ranges of 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive) and 2.00% - 2.05% (inclusive), about 19% think it will be above 2.05%, and only 13% think it will be below 1.95%. Regarding the upper limit, about 35% of investors think it will fall in the range of 2.10% - 2.15% (inclusive), 33% think it will be in the range of 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive), and about 19% think it will break through 2.20%. Since September, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has continued to rise, and investors are quite cautious about the expectation that it may further increase [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Economic Situation in September - 54% of investors think the economy in September will show a situation of "both supply and demand weakening", 29% think it will be "demand weakening, supply strengthening", 9% think it will be "both supply and demand strengthening", and 8% think it will be "demand strengthening, supply weakening". In September, 83% of investors think the demand side has generally weakened, and only 38% expect the supply side to strengthen, indicating that the market is relatively cautious about the expectation of supply expansion [14][17]. 3.4 Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 36% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 27% think the next cut may occur in October, 23% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Regarding interest rate cuts, 53% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 19% think the next cut may occur in October, 13% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Compared with the August survey results, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts have slightly increased, while their expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased [18]. 3.5 Impact of the Fed's 25bp Interest Rate Cut on the Domestic Bond Market - 64% of investors think the Fed's 25bp interest rate cut has limited impact on the domestic bond market, and the domestic fiscal and supply rhythm still need to be considered. 13% think it is beneficial for the repair of the Sino - US interest rate spread and can ease the pressure on RMB depreciation. 12% think the interest rate cut signal strengthens the downward movement of the global interest rate center, which is beneficial for the long - duration trend in the domestic market. Another 12% think the external disturbance is difficult to determine. Most investors think the interest rate cut is not a significant surprise, and its impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the Bond Market in October - 32% of investors think the bond market in October will strengthen overall, among which 20% expect the yield curve to be bull - flattened (a slight decrease compared with the August survey results), and 12% expect the yield curve to be bull - steepened. 29% of investors think the bond market will be weak. 20% of investors think the bond market may show a differentiation between the short - end and long - end, favoring a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 6% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Investors' expectations for the bond market are divided, and there is no obvious trend [24]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 31% of investors think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before increasing positions. 29% of investors think it's time to start increasing positions. 16% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. 10% of investors think they should appropriately reduce positions, and about 15% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. Most investors' actual operations in October are relatively neutral, and the proportion of those who think it's time to start increasing positions has significantly increased [27]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Types in October - Compared with the August survey results, investors' preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, and high - grade urban investment bonds has increased, while their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has significantly decreased. Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds. Their preference for local government bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and secondary capital bonds has slightly decreased [29]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in October - Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to the game of institutional behavior has significantly increased. Their attention to fundamental data such as real estate and PMI remains basically the same, and their attention to the disturbance of US tariff policies has significantly decreased [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][22]. Core Viewpoints - The main theme for steel trading in the next two years is expected to be "anti-involution" [1]. - The report highlights the fluctuations in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a complex market environment [3][6]. Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,408, with a weekly change of -1.1% and a year-to-date change of 14.5% [3]. - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) is priced at 3,230 CNY/ton, showing a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 5.3% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,340 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 2.3% [3]. Inventory Summary - The total inventory of five major steel products is 1,088 million tons, with a weekly change of -1.1% and a year-to-date change of 43.5% [6]. - The port inventory of iron ore is at 13,997 million tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.4% and a year-to-date increase of 1.1% [6]. Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,100 million tons [9]. - The average daily pig iron output is expected to reach approximately 250 million tons [9]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand measured in ten thousand tons [15].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Fulei New Materials (605488), a leading company in functional coating composite materials, with growth potential in electronic skin technology [5] - The recommendation logic highlights the company's leadership in the domestic market and the acceleration of humanoid robot industrialization as key growth drivers [5] Group 2: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Fulei New Materials are estimated at 3,049 million, 3,557 million, and 4,069 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20.0%, 16.7%, and 14.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 115 million, 158 million, and 212 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of -17.4%, 37.1%, and 34.6% [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report identifies the leading position in electronic skin technology and mass production capabilities as a significant competitive advantage [5] - The report notes that the development of flexible tactile sensors may not meet expectations, which could impact market performance [5] Group 4: Industry Insights - The macroeconomic environment is highlighted as a potential risk factor, with fluctuations in the economic cycle and increased market competition being significant concerns [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy impacts on supply-side dynamics, particularly in relation to the "anti-involution" effect on industrial profits [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the bond industry. Group 2: Core Views - Market fluctuations have caused some disturbances to the liability side, but overall liability side stability remains acceptable. ETFs and "fixed income +" funds have seen small net outflows, but the pace has slowed compared to early September, and insurance funds still focus on allocation. [3][8] - In a volatile market, the operating strategies of public - offering institutions have diverged. Low - volatility strategy funds aiming for absolute returns may have reduced their allocations to high - price bonds and convertible bonds in general, while high - volatility tolerance products and relative return funds can increase allocations to some convertible bond issues with sufficient corrections and fundamental support. [3][9] - Different - priced convertible bonds have different performances and strategies. High - price convertible bonds have proven their upward logic, and for high - tolerance funds, holding is better than trading. Medium - price convertible bonds are the core of the "attack - and - defense" strategy, and bonds with reasonable price structures and catalytic expectations should be selected. The valuation of low - price (partial - debt) convertible bonds has reached an extreme level, and caution should be exercised. [2][3][9] - In October, investors are advised to pay attention to Shangyin Convertible Bond, Shouhua Convertible Bond, Jingke Convertible Bond, Kangtai Convertible Bond 2, Baolong Convertible Bond, Keshun Convertible Bond, Yingbo Convertible Bond, Huaya Convertible Bond, Wankai Convertible Bond, and Luwei Convertible Bond. [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The convertible bond market has shown limited adjustments and slight recoveries. In the past week, the ChinaBond Convertible Bond Index rose by about 1 percentage point, and the 100 - yuan premium rate also slightly recovered. [8] - The liability side of convertible bonds remains stable. Although there are small net outflows from some funds, the overall situation is improving, and insurance funds still focus on long - term allocation. [3][8] - Public - offering institutions' strategies have diverged. Low - volatility funds reduce positions, while high - volatility tolerance funds increase positions in some high - quality bonds. [3][9] - Different - priced convertible bonds have different characteristics and strategies. High - price bonds are suitable for holding, medium - price bonds need comprehensive screening, and partial - debt bonds should be treated with caution. [2][3][9] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - Different convertible bond indexes have different performances in different time periods. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index has a 0.14% increase in the past week, - 0.91% in the past two weeks, etc. [14] 2.2 Convertible Bond Issues - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten convertible bond issues in terms of price changes in the past week, but specific issue names are not provided in the text. [18] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - The report presents the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds (debt - type, balanced, and equity - type) through charts, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text. [21][26][28] 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the proportion trends of high - price convertible bonds and the median price trends of convertible bonds through charts, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text. [24][25][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy regular meeting continues the "supportive" monetary policy idea. While "maintaining abundant liquidity", it also "prevents fund idling", and the pattern of "ample quantity and stable price" in narrow - sense liquidity may continue. The mention of "implementing various monetary policy measures and fully releasing policy effects" does not necessarily mean that the focus of monetary policy is on existing policies, and incremental policies can also be expected [1][3]. - The cross - quarter capital market may be relatively loose. The cross - quarter capital price will first rise and then fall. The central bank's injection, fiscal expenditure, and smooth bank financing may contribute to a loose cross - quarter capital pattern [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations: Active Injection of Medium - term Liquidity Continues - **Short - term liquidity**: In the past week (9/22 - 9/26), the central bank's open - market pledged reverse repurchase had a net injection of 6406 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the balance of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase was 24674 billion yuan, slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (9/28 - 9/30), the due amount of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase is 5166 billion yuan, and the central bank may continue to support short - term liquidity [11]. - **Long - term liquidity**: In the past week, the central bank renewed 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, with 3000 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 4 consecutive months [12]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance: The Net Payment of Government Bonds in the Next Week is 212.1 Billion Yuan, with Small Supply Pressure - **Net payment of government bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 128.6 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 59.4 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 188.1 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 212.1 billion yuan, with a net payment of 157.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 54.8 billion yuan for local bonds. The overall net payment pressure is small, and the net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday [19]. - **Issuance rhythm and progress of government bonds**: As of 9/26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 81.1%, a decrease of 2.2% compared with the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 1.26 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1%, an increase of 3.0% in the past week, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is about 0.88 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 99.8%, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is 4.3 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of new local bonds is faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 and 2023 [20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market: Bill Interest Rates Slightly Recovered at the End of September At the end of September, bill interest rates rose significantly. On 9/26, the 3M direct - discount rate for national - share bills was 1.45% (1.33% on 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 1.34% (1.25% on 9/19); the 6M direct - discount rate was 0.92% (unchanged from 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 0.85% (0.86% on 9/19) [30]. 3.1.4 Capital Review: Cross - quarter Capital Costs First Rose and Then Fell - **Capital sentiment index**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, the capital market tightened in the middle of the week, and the capital sentiment index reached 60 on Wednesday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened [33]. - **Capital price**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, capital interest rates rose from Tuesday to Thursday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened. On 9/26, DR001 decreased by about 15bp to 1.32% compared with 9/19, and DR007 increased by 2bp to 1.53% [36]. - **Capital stratification**: Affected by the cross - quarter period, the spread between DR007 and DR001 widened by 17BP compared with the previous week. During the past week, two new shares were subscribed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and GC001 rose to a maximum of 1.69% [37]. - **Pledged - repurchase trading volume and overnight trading volume ratio**: The overnight trading volume ratio is still relatively high but has decreased compared with the previous week. Affected by the cross - quarter period, overnight trading volume decreased significantly. Generally, "rolling overnight" is still a good strategy under the condition of loose capital. On 9/26, the overnight trading volume ratios of DR, R, and GC were 89%, 37%, and 86% respectively, still at a relatively high level [42]. - **Capital supply and demand**: Currently, the net financing of large - scale banks is still at a seasonal high. On 9/26, the net financing of the banking system was 3.8 trillion yuan, including 4 trillion yuan from large - scale banks, and joint - stock banks turned to net financing. The net financing demand of core institutions in the non - banking system remained basically stable, and the net financing scale of funds, securities firms, insurance companies, and other products was 5.54 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that on 9/19. The net financing scale of core net - financing providers in the non - banking system (money - market funds, wealth - management products, and other institutions) decreased slightly. In terms of different maturities, large - scale banks' net financing is mainly overnight; funds and securities firms' net financing is mainly R001; insurance companies and other products have longer financing maturities, mainly R007; money - market funds have a small amount of net financing in R001 and a large amount of net financing in R007 and R014 [46]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Continuous Net Repayment, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable - **Issuance situation**: In the past week, the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 673.6 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 308.6 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was about 574 billion yuan. In terms of different issuers, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past week was in the order of state - owned banks (313 billion yuan)> city commercial banks (236.1 billion yuan)> joint - stock banks (201.5 billion yuan)> rural commercial banks (36.1 billion yuan). In terms of different maturities, the weighted issuance term of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly in the past week, and the weighted issuance term of state - owned, joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks was 0.43 years [53]. - **Primary and secondary market prices**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of different maturities for state - owned and joint - stock banks remained basically stable. The average issuance interest rates of state - owned banks for 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y in the week were 1.59%, 1.58%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.69% respectively. The secondary - market yield of certificates of deposit increased slightly. On 9/26, the 1Y AAA certificate of deposit's maturity yield was 1.69%, up 1BP from 9/19 [58].

Report Overview - Report Title: Bond Market Weekly Report - Operational Ideas for Holding Bonds over the Holiday from the Perspective of Calendar Effect - Report Date: September 27, 2025 - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided Core Viewpoints - In October, the marginal impact of incremental negative factors in the bond market may ease, but there is still uncertainty in the post - holiday bond market performance. Currently, the problem with the capital gain strategy is that the odds of going long are insufficient due to the constraint of interest rate cut expectations. It is recommended to adopt a short - end coupon strategy for holding bonds over the holiday. Holding short - term (less than 2 years), medium - to high - grade credit bonds and certificates of deposit over the holiday is a more conservative strategy [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Observation 1.1 Calendar Effect - The calendar effect of interest rate trends in October is weak. After the National Day in most years, interest rates tend to rise, mainly due to the influence of broad fiscal policies and policy expectations in October. Except for 2022 (when fundamental data was weak and interest rates declined rapidly) and 2024 (when the equity market exhausted its positive factors after a package of policies and interest rates fluctuated), interest rates in most years since 2019 faced significant upward pressure, driven by factors such as inflation expectations, supply acceleration expectations, broad fiscal expectations, and the disappointment of double - rate cuts. This year, the long - and short - term factors are more complex, and the probability of bond market fluctuations is high [11][16]. 1.2 Post - holiday Key Points - The downward space of long - term interest rates after the holiday depends on the central bank's interest rate cut and bond - buying rhythm. According to the Q3 monetary policy meeting, "implementing and refining" is the main tone of the central bank's current monetary policy. The market's expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut after the holiday should be neither overly pessimistic nor overly optimistic. - The capital market game will be complex around the short - term results of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and the next round of China - US negotiations. - After the holiday, the market's expectation of the fund fee rate new regulations will become clearer, and the number of panic - driven adjustments in the bond market may decrease [17][18][20]. 1.3 Technical Analysis - Since July, the rebound strength of interest rates has gradually weakened. The rebound time of the 10 - year Treasury active bond has become shorter, and the rebound amplitude has become smaller. The TL price has broken through the intraday low in March, forming an "M - head" double - top pattern. The overall market sentiment is still fragile. The adjustment of secondary perpetual bonds has accelerated, and the pressure on long - term credit bonds remains to be released. From the carry perspective, it is more conservative to hold short - term (less than 2 years), medium - to high - grade credit bonds and certificates of deposit over the holiday [21][24]. 2. Bond Market Asset Performance - The report provides multiple charts related to bond market asset performance, including the Treasury yield curve, Treasury bond yields, certificate of deposit yields, etc., but no specific text summary of these data is provided [27][28][29]. 3. High - frequency Entity Tracking 3.1 Price - related - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated slightly downward, while international crude oil prices rose. Brent crude oil rose by $1.98 per barrel, and WTI crude oil rose by $1.41 per barrel. Prices generally increased, except for a slight decline in pork prices. The average wholesale price of vegetables rose by 0.1 yuan per kilogram, and that of fruits rose by 0.11 yuan per kilogram. The average wholesale price of beef rose by 0.72 yuan per kilogram, and that of mutton rose by 0.65 yuan per kilogram, while the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.06 yuan per kilogram [36]. 3.2 Industry - related - This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined. The prices of glass and coking coal showed different trends, and the supply side recovered. The futures closing price of glass rose by 36 yuan per ton, while that of coking coal decreased by 35.5 yuan per ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly by 0.47%, and the petroleum asphalt operating rate increased by 5.7% [41]. 3.3 Investment and Real Estate - related - This week, the transaction volume data in the investment and real estate sector showed signs of recovery. The transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - sized cities both increased. The decline of the second - hand housing listing price index slowed down but remained at a historical low. The cumulative value of housing completion area increased compared with last month but was still lower than the historical average [52]. 3.4 Travel and Consumption - related - This week, travel and consumption data were mixed. The subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while that in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The movie box office revenue increased and exceeded the historical average. The retail sales of passenger cars increased by 9.2% compared with the same period last month, while the number of domestic flights decreased [56].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the focus on short-term opportunities following the quarter-end, highlighting a tightening of liquidity and upward pressure on bond yields due to policy changes and seasonal factors [5][6][8] - The report notes that the market has largely priced in negative factors such as the new public fund fee regulations and the "anti-involution" policies, suggesting that the impact of these factors is diminishing [5][6] - It anticipates that after the digestion of these negative factors, bond yields may decline again due to expectations of policy rate cuts and a return to a more accommodative liquidity environment [5][6] Group 2 - The report tracks basic economic data, indicating that the overall economic conditions remain weak, which may lead to expectations of monetary policy easing following the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October [5][10] - It discusses the performance of various bond types, noting that the yields on 10-year government bonds have risen by 0.4 basis points, while yields on 3-5 year AAA municipal bonds have increased by 8-11 basis points [5][10] - The report highlights the behavior of institutional investors, noting a significant increase in net selling of credit bonds by funds in the latter half of the week, while insurance and wealth management products have increased their allocations [10][11] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the credit bond market, indicating that the yield spread between credit bonds and government bonds remains significant, with various credit types showing different levels of risk and return [15][16] - It suggests specific investment strategies based on risk preferences, recommending high-grade bank subordinated bonds for low-risk investors and exploring opportunities in long-term credit bonds for high-risk investors [5][10] - The report also mentions the potential impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies, including a recent rate cut, which could influence domestic bond market dynamics [11]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the growth style of the market has shone brightly in September, aligning with previous predictions of reaching a peak. It suggests that in October, the growth style will continue to thrive but with increased volatility, advocating for a balanced allocation between cyclical and technology sectors [1][2][3] Sector Rotation: Focus on Broad Growth Direction, Cyclical and Consumer Sectors - The market style is leaning towards mid and large-cap stocks, with growth outperforming value. The cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to be relatively dominant in October [2][12] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October remains high at 91.9%, which is anticipated to create a favorable financial environment for growth stocks [2][33] Industry Allocation: Focus on Technology, Cyclical, and Large Financial Sectors - The top ten industries based on scoring include electric power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, machinery, communication, agriculture, electronics, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, consumer services, and computers [4][46] - The report emphasizes a "win rate" approach, favoring investments in electric power, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, while a "odds" approach suggests focusing on underperforming sectors like brokerage firms and real estate [4][47] Next Month's Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on broad growth styles, particularly in cyclical and consumer sectors. It highlights the importance of investing in electric power, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, while also considering underperforming sectors like brokerage firms and real estate [5][46]