证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 5 月 24 日）为 5.6%，与上周修订值 5.6%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周总体平稳。 从需求端来看，各变量分化，消费走强，固投强弱互现，出口走强抢出口开始显现。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the future week, as the fund - face crosses the month and the net payment scale of government bonds rises, considering the central bank's care for the fund - face, the fund - face is expected to operate in a balanced manner [1][28]. - In the future week, with a certificate of deposit (CD) maturity scale of about 65 billion, the pressure on the bank's liability side is controllable, and CD yields are expected to fluctuate following the fund - face [1][29]. - In the week before the holiday, against the background of the lack of a clear direction in the interest - rate bond market, the attention to the coupon strategy of non - bank institutions such as funds may further increase. Short - end coupon asset sinking will still be the mainstream strategy in the near future [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Fund Review - Central bank operations: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, 48.6 billion of 7 - day reverse repurchase funds matured, the central bank injected 94.6 billion of 7 - day funds, renewed 50 billion of MLF, and injected 24 billion of treasury deposits, with a net injection of 120 billion in total, and the 7 - day OMO stock rose to 94.6 billion [10]. - Exchange rate: The on - the - spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 2 basis points, and the use of the counter - cyclical factor basically disappeared [10]. - Government bond progress: Last week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 24.349 billion, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 264.401 billion, completing 39.7% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 11.3083 billion, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 180.3 billion, completing 34.7% of the annual plan. As of May 23, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1.62 trillion, completing 81.2% of the annual plan [13]. - Fund structure: The lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased, while that of money market funds and wealth management products increased. The overall borrowing scale of non - bank institutions decreased slightly. Overnight and 7 - day fund rates declined marginally, while the 14 - day fund rate rose slightly due to cross - month arrangements. The liquidity stratification was at a low level [17]. 3.1.2 CD Review - Primary market: The net financing of inter - bank CDs was - 2.4 billion, with a total issuance of 71.434 billion and a maturity of 73.834 billion. The future three - week maturities will be 65.273 billion, 66.655 billion, and 120.363 billion respectively. The primary issuance rate rose slightly to 1.6688% [20]. - Secondary market: Core buyers such as funds, wealth management products, and large - scale banks continued to increase their holdings, while money market funds switched to selling. Insurance, other non - bank institutions, and product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated slightly upwards, and the yield curve steepened [23]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - Fund - face: The asymmetric cut of deposit and loan interest rates on May 20 may relieve the pressure on banks' net interest margins, but the policy effect needs to be observed. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF on May 23 and net injection of liquidity in the open market throughout the week reflect its care for the fund - face. Before the next interest - rate cut, the central bank is likely to guide the fund - face to maintain a balanced state. In the future week, as the fund - face crosses the month and the net payment scale of government bonds rises, the fund - face is expected to operate in a balanced manner [28]. - CD: The net financing of CDs was still negative last week, but the amplitude narrowed, and the primary - market rate rose slightly. In the future week, with a CD maturity scale of about 65 billion, the pressure on the bank's liability side is controllable, and CD yields are expected to fluctuate following the fund - face [29]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior and Micro - structure Review - Regarding institutional asset - liability sides: After the policy - rate cut and deposit - rate reduction, it is still difficult to reduce banks' liability costs. The classification supervision trial rating results for wealth management products have been released, and some leading wealth management companies may need to optimize and adjust their indicators. June is the peak of CD maturities this year, and large - scale banks may start to reserve liabilities in advance in late May. Short - end coupon asset sinking will still be the mainstream strategy [31]. - Specific data: On May 23, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds in the past 10 - day rolling average was 3.18 years, a slight increase. The bond - market leverage ratio in the week before the holiday was 106.84%, a slight decrease. The 10Y China Development Bank - 10Y treasury bond term spread was - 1.74bp, and the 1Y China Development Bank - R001 spread was - 6.18BP, with the inversion pattern of short - term bonds and fund prices converging [32][33][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the market fluctuated and consolidated. Major broad - based indices and convertible bond indices recorded negative returns, but most sectors had shallow declines. The domestic market is still waiting for incremental information, with adjustments concentrated in previously crowded small - cap stocks, and bond yields showed a fluctuating downward trend. In May, the equity market may replicate the 2020 "first fluctuate, then break through" path under the expectations of seizing exports, stabilizing domestic demand, and stabilizing the capital market [1][3]. - In the short - term, the risk of a significant market decline is limited, and the fluctuating pattern is expected to continue. It is recommended to focus on high - grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds, and the dumbbell strategy is dominant. In terms of strategies, it is necessary to balance defensive stability and theme flexibility, and dynamically balance the industry's prosperity rhythm and valuation cost - effectiveness [3]. - In terms of individual bonds, the top 10 convertible bonds in the low - volatility portfolio in May are Wenshan Convertible Bond, Ran 23 Convertible Bond, etc.; the top 10 in the stable portfolio are Yong 02 Convertible Bond, Dongjie Convertible Bond, etc.; the top 10 in the high - volatility portfolio are Furong Convertible Bond, Qilin Convertible Bond, etc. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 1.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (such as the past week, two weeks, since March, etc.). For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index had a 0.16% increase in the past week, while the Wind Convertible Bond Optional Consumption Index had a 0.77% decline in the past week [9]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content 1.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, but mentions the valuation trends of different types of convertible bonds (such as bond - type, balanced, and stock - type) through figures [20] 1.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report presents the trends of high - price bond ratio, low - price bond ratio, the proportion of bonds breaking the bond floor, and the median price of the convertible bond market through figures [27][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights three key updates that support a positive outlook for the company's long-term development: 1) The company will benefit from the upgrade of smart driving functions from L2 to L2+, leading to an acceleration in market share for J3/J5 [27][28]. 2) In the medium to long term, the company holds multiple pre-installed orders from various automakers for high-level smart driving, securing a position in the high-level smart driving market alongside Nvidia and Huawei [34][27]. 3) The company is expected to benefit from dual advantages of "domestic production" and "stricter smart driving regulations" amid various market disturbances [25][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 37.11 billion, 57.21 billion, and 83.45 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.71%, 54.15%, and 45.87% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -11.09 billion, -6.58 billion, and 6.01 billion CNY, indicating a potential return to profitability by 2027 [3][47]. 2. Market Discrepancies - There are two main points of divergence in market perception regarding the company: 1) The competitive strength of the company's products compared to suppliers like Nvidia and Huawei, with the J6P chip aligning its capabilities with high-performance scenarios [2][39]. 2) The impact of automakers developing their own smart driving solutions on the company's market position, which the report argues will not pose a significant threat due to high development costs and regulatory challenges [3][45]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report employs a Price-to-Sales (PS) valuation method, assigning a target market value of 111.3 billion CNY (121.2 billion HKD) for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 9.18 HKD per share, based on a 30x PS multiple [11][50]. 4. Product and Market Strategy - The company is positioned as an open ecosystem player, allowing greater flexibility for automakers through its BPU IP licensing model, which enhances collaboration opportunities with Tier 1 customers [40][39]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships with major automakers, including BYD, Ideal, and Volkswagen, which are expected to drive significant growth in chip shipments and market share in the L2+ segment [30][34]. 6. Regulatory Environment - The tightening of regulations in the smart driving sector is seen as beneficial for established suppliers with proven production capabilities, positioning the company favorably in the evolving market landscape [37][38].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is focusing on three new consumer investment opportunities: "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers such as snack companies in membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products." Traditional consumption is expected to see performance bottoming out and potentially rising [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the industry during this phase, particularly in the liquor sector, which may experience a transition year in 2025 [1][2] - The report continues to recommend leading stocks in the food and beverage sector, highlighting companies such as Jin Zai Food and Yan Jin Pu Zi, while also paying attention to You You Food [1][2] Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector - The report highlights the focus on "category dividends," "new channel drivers," and "health product hotspots" as key investment opportunities [1][2] - Recommended stocks include Jin Zai Food, Yi Li, Yan Jin Pu Zi, Dong Peng Beverage, and others, with a focus on leading companies [2][24] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest for the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets [2][16] - High-end liquor recommendations include Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while mid-range and regional brands include Gu Qing Gong Jiu and Shanxi Fen Jiu [2][17] - The report notes that the liquor sector may enter a structural bull market due to policy stabilization and real estate recovery [16][17] Market Performance - From May 19 to May 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while other liquor categories rose by 8.69% and frozen foods by 3.89% [3][29] - The report indicates that the liquor sector experienced a decline of 2.78% during the same period, with specific brands showing varied performance [4][29] Company Updates - Jin Zai Food is highlighted as a leading snack brand with a clear growth path, driven by its main product line and new channel expansions expected to boost revenue and profits [19][20] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development, including maintaining brand value and enhancing international market presence [7][8] - Liquor companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fen Jiu are also focusing on expanding their market presence and improving brand strength [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Views - The report highlights three key updated logic points that support the long-term development of the company: 1) The company will benefit in the short term from the upgrade of intelligent driving functions from L2 to L2+, leading to an accelerated market share increase for J3/J5 [27][28]. 2) In the medium to long term, the company holds multiple pre-installed orders from various automakers for high-level intelligent driving, securing a position in the high-level intelligent driving market alongside Nvidia and Huawei [27][34]. 3) The company is expected to benefit from dual advantages of "domestic production" and "stricter intelligent driving regulations" amid various disturbances [25][37]. Summary by Sections Market Discrepancies - There are two main points of divergence in market perception regarding the company: 1) The competitive product strength of the company compared to suppliers like Nvidia and Huawei [38]. 2) The impact of automakers developing their own intelligent driving solutions on the company [38]. Competitive Product Strength - From a product matrix perspective, the mass production of J6P indicates that the company's chips can support all intelligent driving scenarios, aligning with the capabilities of Huawei and Nvidia [39]. - The company has established a fully self-developed product system that matches Nvidia's intelligent driving product ecosystem, offering more flexibility to users compared to Huawei's closed ecosystem [39][40]. Impact of Automakers' Self-Developed Solutions - The report argues that self-developed intelligent driving solutions by automakers will not threaten the company's market position or long-term development logic due to several factors, including increased regulatory scrutiny and the high costs associated with self-development [43][45]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 37.11 billion, CNY 57.21 billion, and CNY 83.45 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.71%, 54.15%, and 45.87% respectively [47][49]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2027, with a projected net profit of CNY 6.01 billion [47]. - A PS valuation method is used, assigning a target market value of CNY 111.3 billion (HKD 121.2 billion) and a target price of HKD 9.18 for 2025 [50][12].

Core Insights - The recent upward trend in Japanese government bond yields is attributed to a steepening yield curve and widening term spreads, with the 30Y yield reaching 3.06% as of May 22, marking a historical high [1][12] - The Japanese economy is emerging from a prolonged deflationary period, with CPI and core CPI recorded at 3.6% and 3.5% respectively in April 2025, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target for over two years [2][16] - The proportion of Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan has slightly decreased, with the central bank holding 557 trillion yen as of March 2025, down 4.6% from November 2023 [3][28] Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has steepened, with the 10s30s spread increasing to 167 basis points, driven by comments from Prime Minister Kishida and disappointing bond auction results [1][12][13] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy is transitioning from negative to positive rates, with expectations of gradual interest rate hikes beginning in 2024 [2][21] - The Japanese government debt-to-GDP ratio has risen significantly, reaching 260% by 2025, raising concerns about long-term economic implications [4][25][26] Group 2: Impact on Asset Classes - The rising yields on Japanese bonds are expected to increase the financial burden on the Japanese government, potentially leading to higher interest payments [5][36] - The narrowing of the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of non-U.S. currencies, impacting global capital flows [5][36] - The outlook for equities suggests that both Japanese and U.S. stocks may face short-term pressure, while the impact on Hong Kong and A-shares is expected to be more indirect [5][36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is focusing on three new consumer investment opportunities: "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers such as snack companies in membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products." Traditional consumption is expected to see performance bottoming out and potentially rising [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the industry during this phase, particularly in the liquor sector, which may experience a transition year in 2025. Attention should be given to companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms [1][2] - The report continues to recommend leading stocks in the food and beverage sector, highlighting companies such as Jin Zai Food, Yili, and Salted Pudding, among others, as key investment opportunities [2][24] Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is currently focusing on "category dividends," "new channel drivers," and "health product hotspots" as investment opportunities. The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the sector [1][2][24] - Recommended stocks include Jin Zai Food, Yili, Salted Pudding, Dongpeng Beverage, Miaokelando, Wancheng Group, Guming, Mixue Group, Anjixin Food, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Lihai Food, Three Squirrels, Babi Food, and Xianle Health, with a focus on leading companies [2][24] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest point for the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets [2][16] - The report highlights two main lines of investment: "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery." High-end liquor recommendations include Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while mid-range and regional liquor recommendations include Guqingongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][17] - The report notes that the liquor sector may enter a structural bull market driven by policy and real estate stabilization [16][17] Market Performance - From May 19 to May 23, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while other liquor categories increased by 8.69% and frozen foods by 3.89%. The liquor sector saw a decline of 2.78% [3][29] - Specific liquor companies showed varied performance, with Jinzhongzi Jiu and Huangtai Jiu seeing slight increases, while Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu experienced significant declines [4][29] Company Updates - Jin Zai Food is highlighted as a key recommendation due to its clear growth path with major products and potential in new channels. The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 [19][21] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development in 2025, including strengthening its core business and building an ESG ecosystem [7][8] - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe are also focusing on expanding their market presence and enhancing brand value [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][8] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading supplier of robot motors and industrial automation solutions in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% in revenue and 8% in net profit over the past decade [7][15] - The company's "1+N" strategy focuses on the robotics sector while expanding into medical imaging, new energy, and logistics industries [15] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of humanoid robots, with the global market for frameless torque motors projected to exceed 30 billion yuan by 2029, with humanoid robot applications accounting for 73% [7][70] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 547 million yuan in 2024, 684 million yuan in 2025, 859 million yuan in 2026, and 1,069 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.1%, 25.0%, 25.5%, and 24.4% respectively [3][8] - Net profit forecasts are 49 million yuan in 2024, 86 million yuan in 2025, 109 million yuan in 2026, and 135 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -19.4%, 76.0%, 26.2%, and 24.2% respectively [3][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.6 yuan in 2024, 1.0 yuan in 2025, 1.3 yuan in 2026, and 1.6 yuan in 2027 [3] Business Structure - The company operates in four main industries: robotics, medical imaging equipment, machine IoT, and general automation, with two systems (drive systems and control systems) and five main products (HMI, servo, PLC, stepper, and low-voltage frequency converters) [7][18][21] - In 2024, the revenue breakdown is expected to be 39% from robotics, 29% from machine IoT, 24% from general automation, and 8% from medical imaging equipment [19][20] Market Position - The company ranks among the top five domestic brands in the human-machine interface (HMI) market, which is projected to grow steadily, with a market size of approximately 9.28 billion yuan in 2024 [2][45] - The servo system market is accelerating in domestic production, with the company being a leader in the direct current servo and mobile robot segments [2][56] Growth Drivers - The three main growth drivers for the company are robotization, globalization, and domestic substitution [7][9] - The company is expected to launch its fourth-generation frameless torque motor in 2025, which will enhance its revenue contribution [10][70]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances, marking the first coverage of the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - Gree Electric Appliances is recognized as a leading air conditioning manufacturer in China, with a young management team expected to enhance governance and operational efficiency, indicating a potential upward trend [1][2]. - The company has successfully navigated through the pain of channel reform, with net profit margins improving from 12.3% in 2019 to 16.9% in 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of these reforms [3][4]. - Gree's revenue and profit growth are projected to continue, with expected revenues of 200.12 billion, 208.32 billion, and 216.82 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 35.51 billion, 38.34 billion, and 40.97 billion yuan for the same years [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Gree Electric Appliances has experienced a significant growth trajectory from 1993 to 2014, establishing itself as a prominent player in the air conditioning market with a CAGR of 29% in revenue and 31% in net profit during this period [18][19]. - The company faced challenges from 2015 to 2019 due to intensified competition and a price war, leading to a decline in revenue and profit, but it began to recover post-2019 with a focus on channel reform [19][20]. Market Potential - The air conditioning market in China still has substantial growth potential, with an ideal ownership rate of 234 units per 100 urban households and 161 units per 100 rural households, indicating a 37% growth opportunity from the current ownership levels [5][56]. - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia and South America also present significant growth opportunities, with ownership rates in these regions showing potential for 124% and 114% growth respectively [5]. Channel Reform and Retail Strategy - Gree has successfully completed its channel reform, stabilizing its dealer network and enhancing its market position, which is expected to lead to further improvements in profitability [3][4]. - The company is actively pursuing new retail strategies, including the implementation of a "cloud network" system to improve logistics efficiency and digital capabilities [4]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook for Gree Electric Appliances is positive, with projected revenues and net profits showing consistent growth through 2027, alongside an increase in earnings per share [6][12].