1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - Supply remains tight with low processing fees and uncertain future supply from Myanmar. Demand is weak, especially in traditional sectors, despite some support from AI and photovoltaic industries. Short - term macro - economic factors may cause price fluctuations. Consider buying on dips due to strong supply - side factors. If Myanmar's supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, prices may remain high and volatile [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cost support is evident, but raw material supply is tight. Supply is restricted by raw material availability and policy uncertainty, while demand is gradually recovering. Inventory is starting to decline, but the absolute level is still high. ADC12 prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [3]. Alumina - The market is in an oversupply situation. Spot prices are expected to remain under pressure, and the futures main contract may fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include cost - profit changes and policies in resource - rich countries [4]. Aluminum - Macro - economic factors are favorable, providing support for aluminum prices. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance, with supply shortages in some areas and a mixed demand situation. High prices are suppressing downstream procurement. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [4]. Nickel - Macro - economic uncertainties exist. The industry is facing pressure, with nickel - iron prices under stress and shrinking profits. Inventory is increasing, and stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Macro - economic risks are increasing, and raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. However, downstream demand during the peak season has not met expectations, and inventory is putting pressure on prices. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market is strong, driven by news and strong downstream demand. Production and demand are both increasing, and the industry is in a de - stocking phase. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract price center around 74000 - 76000 yuan/ton [10]. Copper - High copper prices are suppressing demand. Macro - economic factors such as the approaching Sino - US tariff deadline and US employment data may affect prices. Copper supply shortages are a long - term concern, which will support copper prices. The main contract is expected to find support between 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.18% to 281200 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.05% to - 130.01 dollars/ton [2]. - **Internal - External Ratios and Import Profits/Losses**: Import losses decreased by 8.72% to - 13986.17 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.92 [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5.71% to - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: August tin ore imports decreased by 0.11%, and September SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5879 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.32% to 7786 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy production rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54% [3]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 2.84% to 5.48 tons [3]. Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.14% to 20950 yuan/ton, and alumina prices in some regions decreased [4]. - **Ratios and Profits/Losses**: Import losses decreased by 107.2 yuan/ton to - 2253 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.59 [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: September alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.39% to 62.70 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.73% [4]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.12% to 122150 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased by 2.60% to - 206 dollars/ton [5]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Costs**: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP decreased by 0.62% to 116448 yuan/ton [5]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.25% to 28550 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.75% to 29575 tons [5]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.78% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 8.82% to 315 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.48% to 938 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 tons, and stainless steel imports increased by 60.48% to 11.72 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.56% to 50.18 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% to 8.32 tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 792.86% to - 1940 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 decreased by 1060 yuan/ton to - 1120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: September lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [10]. - **Inventory**: September lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 0.38% to 64539 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 32930 tons [10]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.07% to 85175 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Fundamental Data**: September electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 tons [12][14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 6.73% to 17.75 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 15.42% to 10.97 tons [12][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,322.04 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty [1][2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a store of value and a hedge against inflation [2][18] - The rapid increase in gold prices may lead to potential adjustments and increased volatility in the market [2][18] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and high smelting output, despite the smelting profits being at breakeven levels [2][19] - Investment in electric grids continues to grow, while other sectors like real estate show weakness, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [2][19] - The recent mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a supply gap in the global copper market, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19] Group 3: Oil - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with recent geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, influencing market sentiment [3][12] - OPEC projects a significant increase in global oil demand, with an expected rise of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year [3][12] - Short-term oil prices may face downward pressure despite the anticipated demand growth [3][12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential extension of tariff exemptions on China if strict rare earth export controls are lifted, signaling ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade issues, highlighting the importance of mutual respect [7] - Domestic industrial enterprises are accelerating equipment upgrades, with a notable increase in machinery procurement, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply disruptions, low processing fees, and high prices suppressing downstream demand. The overall view is to buy on dips cautiously [2][7][8]. - The alumina market has a static surplus, and prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of enterprises [11][15][16]. - The aluminum market's mid - term upward trend remains unchanged. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and consumption shows resilience [18][19][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is less affected by the US tariff policy. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices, and the short - term view is to buy on dips [26][28][29]. - The zinc market has an oversupply situation. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [31][34][36]. - The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with supply being weaker. There is a risk of price decline in the second half of the month, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [38][39][40]. - The nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is advisable [42][44][45]. - The stainless steel market has high inventory and low prices. The price is still under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [49][50][52]. - The tin market has tight supply at the mine end, slow demand recovery, and prices are expected to be volatile at high levels. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [55][59][60]. - The industrial silicon market is under short - term price pressure, but there is a possibility of balance sheet repair in November. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [62][63][64]. - The polysilicon market may experience a short - term correction, but the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Buying on dips is recommended [69][70][71]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and short - term price strength. The view is to be bullish on the short - term trend [75][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,050 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced positions by 10,111 lots to 546,200 lots. Shanghai spot premiums stabilized, while Guangdong's inventory ended a 5 - day increase, and North China's procurement was weak [2]. - **Important Information**: Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 242,740 tons. From January to August 2025, it was about 1.81 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year. As of October 16, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 177,500 tons compared to Monday. Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the decline in copper processing and refining fees [3][4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroscopically, the US employment market is cooling, and Powell may support interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, supply disruptions at the copper mine end increase, and processing fees are expected to decline. Consumption is weak, but there may be an increase in demand after price corrections [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips cautiously. Hold long - term cross - market arbitrage positions, and start cross - period arbitrage after domestic inventory decline. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 9 yuan to 2,790 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [10]. - **Related Information**: On October 15, some aluminum plants made purchases. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. Some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan were in a loss situation, and an enterprise in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The static surplus of alumina is absorbed by downstream stocking, but the surplus trend remains. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and more production cuts may occur in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,975 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Related Information**: China's September economic data showed some improvements. The US tariff policy on China was uncertain, and on October 15, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 12,000 tons [18]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum prices is expected to be less severe than in April. After the price correction, downstream stocking drives inventory reduction, and the mid - term upward trend remains unchanged [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 90 yuan to 20,490 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [26]. - **Related Information**: The US tariff policy was uncertain, and on October 15, the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased slightly, while the warehouse receipts decreased [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The impact of the US tariff policy on aluminum alloy prices is limited. The shortage of scrap aluminum and seasonal demand support prices [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract decreased by 0.32% to 21,965 yuan/ton. The spot market had low trading volume, and downstream purchasing was weak [31][33]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 162,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of zinc in 2025 and 2026 [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: At the mine end, domestic production may decrease, and imported zinc concentrate is in a loss situation. At the smelting end, production is expected to increase. Consumption is expected to weaken. The domestic market is under pressure, while the overseas market is strong [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold short positions and add short positions on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Lead - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Lead 2512 contract increased by 0.26% to 17,130 yuan/ton. The spot market had average trading volume [38]. - **Related Information**: As of October 16, the SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory was 37,700 tons. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted an oversupply of lead in 2025 and 2026 [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was low. After the National Day, inventory decreased. In the second half of October, supply may increase, and prices may decline [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to decline from high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 250 to 121,270 yuan/ton. Spot premiums showed an upward trend [42]. - **Related Information**: In August 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The global nickel market is expected to be oversupplied until 2030. LME nickel inventory is increasing [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global nickel market is in a long - term oversupply situation. LME inventory increase indicates high export enthusiasm of domestic enterprises, and prices are under pressure [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [45][46][47]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 increased by 60 to 12,615 yuan/ton. Spot prices were weak and stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The EU's policies may increase the cost of stainless steel imports. The national stainless steel inventory decreased slightly [50][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are rising, but 300 - series cold - rolled inventory is increasing, and prices are under pressure. The current price is lower than the factory cost, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - **Market Review**: On October 16, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,350 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan/ton or 0.34%. The spot price decreased slightly [55]. - **Related Information**: Peru's tin production increased in August. In August 2025, the global refined tin supply was in short supply. Indonesia's tin production is expected to recover in 2026 [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US may cut interest rates. The supply at the tin mine end is tight, and the processing fee is low. Demand is recovering slowly. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be volatile at high levels. Wait and see for options [60][61]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: On October 11, an environmental impact assessment of a silicon project was announced [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors of polysilicon production cuts are negative for industrial silicon demand. In the short term, there is a slight surplus, and prices are under pressure. In November, there may be production cuts, and the balance sheet may be repaired [63]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, expect prices to be weak in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64][65][66]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The rumor of the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform is false [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term rise was due to false rumors, and prices may correct. But capacity integration is progressing, and production is expected to decrease in November and December, with a possible slight inventory reduction [70]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy on dips after a short - term correction. Hold a reverse arbitrage position for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Adjust the previous double - buying strategy [71][72][73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 16, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 1,880 to 75,080 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable [75]. - **Important Information**: The government issued a plan for electric vehicle charging facilities. Hainan Mining shipped lithium concentrate [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production increased, inventory decreased, demand was strong, and prices were supported. Market funds returned, and volatility may increase [76][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be bullish on the short - term trend. Wait and see for arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2601 contract [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]

材料：供需和价格展望 - 向光而行、问道周期 20251015 摘要 全球铜矿供应因埃芬豪卡库拉项目停产和自由港产量削减，预计减少近 50 万吨，占全球总供应量约 2%，加剧市场紧张。 国内铜需求虽整体较差，但电力、家电、汽车三大领域需求占比 70%， 电力领域预计四季度恢复，家电环比改善，新能源汽车保持良好增速， AI 新兴领域亦有显著拉动。 黄金价格今年已上涨 50%，超出预期，主要受美元走弱、通胀压力和地 缘政治风险驱动，未来仍保持乐观。 全球央行持续增持黄金，但 2025 年上半年增持量放缓，黄金 ETF 近期 显著增持，推动金价上涨。 2025 年初基建投资快速增长，但 5 月后放缓，1-8 月累计同比增长 5.4%。预计第四季度将受益于施工旺季、重大项目冲刺和专项债发行， 景气度有望提升。 水泥行业产量收缩，需求偏弱，但基建端景气度提升有望带动水泥用量 增长，反内卷政策和冬季停窑安排或将收缩供给。 钢铁行业面临环保成本倒逼和碳排放总额控制，可能促使高成本钢厂退 出，推动产品结构升级和行业集中度提升，四季度需关注超产核查和安 全生产检查。 Q&A 铜价未来的走势如何？有哪些主要因素影响铜价？ 铜价未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US officially imposed restrictions such as port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposed this and announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., highlighting China's determination to counter in key areas [7]. - For LPG, the price of domestic propane at the cost of arrival (tax - included) is basically below 4,000 yuan/ton. The demand has increased significantly, but it has not rebounded under speculative demand. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign is clear, which is bullish for the long - short spread on the futures market, but the impact of Sino - US trade disputes and crude oil price trends should be noted [9][10]. - For cotton, the short - term trend is stable. Before mid - November, attention should be paid to the development of international economic and trade situations. The short - term trend of cotton futures is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it will be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in shipping capacity in November. The recent sharp rise was affected by China's counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean, but it has no substantial impact on the European line. The fundamentals show that most shipping companies are expected to be fully loaded in week 43, and the no - show rate needs further observation [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs. The Fed Chairman Powell hinted at another interest rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing the end, which is favorable for gold prices [21]. - **Silver**: The contradiction in the spot market has eased, and the price has risen and then fallen [21]. - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is volatile. The production of Codelco in Chile has decreased, and China's copper imports in September have shown different trends [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The trend is weakly volatile. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates affects the market, and inventory and price data show certain changes [28]. - **Lead**: The inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The Fed's interest - rate policy also has an impact on the lead market [31]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The price of tin has declined, and inventory and price differences have changed [34]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within a certain interval. Alumina's price center moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [38]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the nickel price is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel is under pressure from both the macro - environment and the actual situation, but the cost limits the downward space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is improving, and the warehouse receipts are being cleared. The short - term trend is relatively strong [44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is weak [47]. - **Polysilicon**: Meetings are being held this week, and the futures market is expected to rise [48]. 3.2 Building Materials and Energy - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed, and relevant policies have an impact on the market [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current situation is weak, and the expectation has also weakened. Steel prices may decline slightly [54]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The quotations in the main production areas are unstable, and the prices fluctuate widely. The prices of manganese ore at ports have moved down [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and the prices fluctuate widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [61][62]. - **Log**: The price oscillates repeatedly [64]. 3.3 Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: The medium - term trend remains weak [17]. - **MEG**: The spread between January and May contracts is in a reverse - arbitrage situation [17]. - **Rubber**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trend is weak [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price has declined following the oil price [17]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The trends are weak [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not short in the short term [17]. - **Pulp**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of raw glass is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: The price is under pressure and oscillates [17]. - **Urea**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [17]. - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has not changed much [17]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The driving force from the origin is limited. Attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves within a certain range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The trade concerns have resurfaced, and the prices may rebound and oscillate [20]. - **Corn**: The price has rebounded [20]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates within a certain range [20]. - **Egg**: The price oscillates [20]. - **Live Pig**: The bottom of the spot price has not been reached [20]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].