证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 [Table_Title] PMI 不弱，政策不急 6 月 30 日， 统计局发布 6 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.7%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.5%，前值 50.3%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，二季度综合 PMI 平均值较一季度放缓。6 月综合 PMI 反弹 0.3 个百分点至 50.7%，二季度的平均值 为 50.4%，低于一季度的平均值 50.9%，也低于去年二季度的平均值 51.1%，不过要好于去年三季度的平均值 50.2%。综合 PMI 反映制造业和非制造业的生产情况环比走势，与生产法 GDP 环比存在较强的相关性。按照综 合 PMI 环比推算同比，二季度现价 GDP 同比增速可能较今年一季度出现放缓，不过二季度不变价 GDP 同比仍 可能达到 5.0%或略高的水平。 第二，订单和价格指向供需匹配情况改善。价格方面，制造业、建筑业和服务业价格分项分别反弹 1.5、 0.8 和 1.6 个百分点，制造业原材料购进价也反弹 1.5 个百分点，不过四者介于 46-49%区间，仍 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - In the life insurance sector, the premium growth rate continued to expand in May 2025, with original premium income for the first five months reaching 227.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The life insurance segment saw a significant monthly increase of 24.1% in May [1][2] - The property insurance sector reported a steady growth in auto insurance premiums, driven by new car sales, with total original premium income for the first five months at 78.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 3,842.39 billion yuan by the end of May 2025, reflecting a 7.0% increase from the end of 2024, primarily due to premium income growth and investment asset appreciation [3] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - Original premium income for life insurance in May was 26.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. The total for the first five months was 187.35 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year [1] - The new investment contributions from policyholders in the first five months were 34.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with May showing a slight increase of 1.2% [1] Property Insurance - The auto insurance segment's original premium income for the first five months was 37.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while non-auto insurance premiums reached 40.85 billion yuan, up 6.0% [2] - In May, the total original premium income for property insurance was 13.20 billion yuan, with auto insurance contributing 7.53 billion yuan and non-auto insurance 5.66 billion yuan [2] Asset Management - By the end of May 2025, the total assets of life insurance companies were 3,366.27 billion yuan, a 6.7% increase from the end of 2024, while property insurance companies had total assets of 307.76 billion yuan, up 6.1% [3] - The net assets of the insurance industry totaled 360.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the end of 2024 [3] Investment Recommendations - Recent regulatory measures are expected to lower liability costs for life insurance companies, benefiting leading firms in the sector. The current yield on ten-year government bonds is fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%, with anticipated adjustments in preset rates [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Lao Xiang Ji has initiated a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for its Hong Kong listing, aiming to become the "first stock of Chinese fast food" with over 1,400 stores nationwide [1][8] - The company, LXJ International Holdings Limited, submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January, with a targeted transaction scale of approximately 150 million USD [1][8] - According to Zhaoshang Consulting, Lao Xiang Ji ranks first in the Chinese fast food industry by total transaction volume in 2023, focusing on high-quality home-style dishes and convenient service [1][8] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, proposing 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity, including encouraging financial institutions to issue loans to key service sectors [2][10] - The guidelines include a 500 billion CNY quota for loans aimed at service consumption and elderly care, as well as support for cultural, tourism, and education sectors to issue bonds [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support in stimulating supply and demand in the service and goods consumption sectors, aiming for a long-term positive impact on consumption [12] Group 3 - JD's food delivery service has surpassed 25 million daily orders within four months of launch, while combined daily orders for Ele.me and Taobao Flash Purchase have exceeded 60 million [3][4] - The report notes that Alibaba has merged Ele.me into its Chinese e-commerce business group to accelerate the development of instant retail [4][13] - Meituan has announced a comprehensive expansion of its instant retail business, including the enhancement of its Xiaoxiang Supermarket and the upgrade of its Meituan Preferred service [4][16]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 国泰君安国际获批虚拟资产交易资格；险资 长期股票投资试点加速推进 [Table_Title2] 非银金融周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周（2025. 6.22-2025. 6.28）A 股日均交易额 14,8 67 亿元，环比增加 22.4%，同比增加 1 22.8%。2025 年二季度至 今日均成交额 12,5 81 亿元,较 2024 年二季度日均交易额增加 52.0%。202 5 年至今日均成交额 13,88 2 亿元,较 2024 年日均 交易额增加 59.5 %。投行：本周发行新股 1 家，募集资金 25.0 亿元；本周上市新股 1 家，募集资金 2.3 亿元。2025 年 至今，A 股 IPO 上市 51 家，募集金额 373.6 亿元。2024 年， A 股 IPO 上市 1 00 家，募集金额 673 .5 亿元。两融：截至 2025 年 6 月 26 日，两市两融余额 18,384.78 亿元，环比增加 0.97%，较 20 24 年日均水平增加 17 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1,109.13 points, down 1.38% weekly, ending seven consecutive weeks of gains since April 30, 2025. The CSI REITs (Closing) Index closed at 880.90 points, down 1.46% weekly. After the listing of two new projects, the total market capitalization of the REITs market still decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, and all asset - class sectors pulled back [1][8]. - From the perspective of major asset classes, REITs fell across the board this week, while the equity market and convertible bonds rose, and gold performed poorly [1][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price: All categories pulled back, and the transportation sector declined for two consecutive weeks - All seven REITs sectors fell this week. The transportation facilities sector led the decline with a 2.22% drop after a 1.1% decline last week. Only CICC Shandong Expressway REIT recorded a positive growth of 0.47%, and the road asset operation situation still showed obvious differentiation. The energy sector had the smallest decline, mainly driven by the rise of CITIC Construction Investment State Power Investment New Energy and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT [2][15]. - At the individual bond level, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT and CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT, which were officially listed on June 26 and 27, 2025, respectively, both had a 30% increase on the first day, and Yizhuang Industrial Park also hit the 10% daily limit on the next day. Other REITs with price increases this week were Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT, Huaxia Huarun Commercial REIT, etc., and the relevant original equity holders all had strong asset operation capabilities [20]. 3.1.2 Liquidity: The turnover rates of municipal environmental protection and rental housing still led - The overall market trading this week showed no significant change compared with last week. The average daily trading volume was 579 million yuan, the average daily trading volume was 120 million shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.61%, with month - on - month increases of 1.80%, 1.41%, and 0 pct respectively [2][24]. - By sector, the sectors with the highest average daily turnover rates this week were municipal environmental protection (1.16%), rental housing (0.88%), and energy facilities (0.64%). At the individual bond level, the top three in trading activity this week were CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, and Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT [27][29]. - Five projects will be unblocked in July. The impact of the large - scale transaction method on prices remains to be observed [2][32]. 3.1.3 Valuation: After the pull - back, the ChinaBond valuation yields of all projects increased - The across - the - board decline of REITs this week led to a valuation adjustment of the sector. From the perspective of ChinaBond valuation yields, the transportation (5.38%), warehousing and logistics (4.96%), and industrial park (4.90%) sectors were at the forefront, and the project valuations showed obvious differentiation, with individual bonds having room for exploration [2][36]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Initial Offering: China Overseas Land & Investment applied for a consumer REIT - On June 24, 2025, the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" pointed out that financial products and financing models suitable for the characteristics of capital demand should be explored and innovated around key areas of consumer infrastructure construction, and support the issuance of REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure [44]. - On June 26, China Overseas Land & Investment announced that it planned to independently list the "China Overseas Foshan Nanhai Yingyue Lake Ringyu City" shopping center project on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the form of a public REIT, with a planned fundraising of 1.355 billion yuan, and China Overseas Land & Investment would subscribe for about 20% of the fund shares [3][44]. - As of June 27, 2025, there were about 12 - 15 potential issuance projects this year, with an expected total issuance scale of over 20 billion yuan, and the market total scale was expected to exceed 220 billion yuan [44]. 3.2.2 Other Key News This Week - Ping An Ningbo Transportation Investment REIT plans to hold an investor open - day event from 10:00 - 16:00 on July 3, 2025 [54]. - On June 24, the Guojin Asset Management - Happy Valley Hold - type Real Estate Asset - Backed Special Plan was approved, with a proposed issuance scale of 670 million yuan. Happy Valley is a retail business of China Resources Vanguard [3][54].

[Table_Title] 7 月理财或迎万亿增量 [Table_Summary] ►本轮理财季末回表压力或弱于季节性规律 本周（6 月 23-27 日）理财回表压力或达到阶段性高点，存续规模显 著承压。不过由于数据源受限（目前仅 52%产品正常披露），当周实际录 得规模环比下降 2864 亿元，存续规模降至 31.33 万亿元。近两年二季度 同期规模降幅均在 1.1 万亿元以上。 不过我们倾向于，今年理财资金季末回表压力可能弱于季节性规律。 这一判断可从两方面得到侧面印证，一方面季末理财在二级市场仍维持大 额净买入。6 月中旬（6 月 16-27 日）以来，理财用于流动性管理的存单 类资产日均买入量为129亿元，高于2022-24年同期14亿元的平均水平， 同时也高于今年一季度同期的 13 亿元。另一方面，本轮季末银行融出维 持年内相对高位，存单发行价格也持续向下，或反映季末银行各项指标压 力可控，母行的回表诉求可能不高。 往后看，7 月理财规模通常呈季节性扩张特征，且增幅往往高于前月 回表幅度，历史上 7 月增幅普遍维持在 1.4-2.2 万亿元区间，6月降幅基本 分布在 0.8-1.5 万亿元。跨季后， ...

Market Overview - From June 23 to 27, the equity market experienced a significant rise, with the Wind All A Index closing at 5268.17, up 3.56% from June 20, while the China Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%[1][10] - The increase was driven by stabilizing funds and a fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors, although the rally faced resistance starting Thursday due to limited potential buying power[1][19] Overseas Insights - The easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions led to a drop in the US Dollar Index, which fell below 97 on June 26, marking its lowest point since February 2022[2][31] - The market is currently desensitized to tariff impacts, focusing instead on the potential effects of the Section 232 investigation on specific industries, particularly copper futures[2][34] Strategy and Opportunities - Historical analysis suggests that after significant rallies, markets often enter a consolidation phase. The report highlights two types of past market behaviors: one driven by volatility expectations and another supported by stabilizing funds[3][35] - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods (supported by policy), technology (low crowding and ongoing narratives), and dividend stocks (potentially benefiting from risk-averse sentiment)[3][44] Convertible Bond Valuation - As of June 27, convertible bond valuations have stretched across various price levels, with the valuation center for an 80 CNY parity bond rising to 48.23%, a 1.25 percentage point increase from June 20[4][26] - The report notes that while convertible bond valuations are elevated, they remain below extreme levels, indicating potential for further growth[4][28] Risk Factors - The report warns of potential rapid style rotation in the equity market and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules, which could impact investor sentiment and market stability[5][50]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - In June, the number of game approvals reached a recent high, with 158 games approved, including 147 domestic and 11 imported games. This reflects the regulatory support for the healthy development of the industry, injecting new momentum into the market [2][25] - The stability of policies significantly enhances the predictability of domestic manufacturers' R&D and distribution plans, promoting resources towards high-quality and long-term development [2][25] - The expansion of import licenses demonstrates an inclusive and innovative attitude, indicating a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development in the industry [2][25] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption promotion and employment stability; 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see demand growth driven by policy incentives and technological empowerment; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, which will benefit from consumption policies that stimulate cinema recovery [3][26] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Sauce Garden Case" with 97.046 million yuan (27.0% market share), "Detective Conan: The Lone Eye's Remnant" with 95.633 million yuan (26.6%), and "How to Train Your Dragon" with 42.064 million yuan (11.7%) [28][29] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Endless Winter." The top three Android games by popularity are "Heartbeat Town," "Sword and Wand Legend," and "My Leisure Time" [31][32] TV Series Industry - The top TV series by broadcast index are "Lingjiang Xian" and "Book Scroll Dream" (both tied for first), followed by "The Lychee of Chang'an" and "In the Name of Law" [34][35] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Ha Ha Ha Ha Season 5," followed by "Infinite Overcoming Class Season 3" and "Singer 2025." The top animation is "Cang Yuan Tu: Meng Chuan's Counterattack" with a viewership index of 308 [36][38]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In July 2025, the production of major home appliances showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with domestic production outperforming exports. The domestic air conditioning market was affected by terminal market conditions, leading to a downward adjustment in production [9][10] - The third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods will be disbursed in July, aimed at stimulating demand in the consumer goods sector [11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: July Production Data - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July 2025 indicated that domestic production was better than exports. The year-on-year growth rates for domestic air conditioning production from July to September are projected to be +8.1%, -19.2%, and -7.8% respectively, while export growth rates are expected to be -16.3%, -8.3%, and -16.6% [9] - Refrigerator production is also affected by U.S. tariff policies, with domestic production growth rates of +3.2%, -5.5%, and -3.5% for the same period, and export growth rates of -4.9%, -7.9%, and -4.1% [9] - The washing machine market is in a seasonal downturn, with domestic production growth rates of -4.6%, -6.9%, and -3.6%, while exports show growth rates of -3.8%, +1.2%, and +11.3% [10] 2. Company Key Announcements - Sanhua Intelligent Controls announced an expected net profit of 1.893 to 2.272 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% due to strong market demand in the refrigeration and automotive parts sectors [15] - Stone Technology submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [15] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - As of June 27, 2025, LME copper prices increased by 1.1% and LME aluminum prices rose by 2.14% compared to the previous week [16] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index increased by 2.00% as of June 27, 2025, while the USD to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.20% [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - From January to May 2025, the sales area of commercial housing, completed housing area, and new housing starts showed year-on-year declines of -2.9%, -17.3%, and -22.8% respectively [26]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 固态电池全产业链扩散，1-5 月电网工程投资同比 增长 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 机器人产业布局加快 随着国内外企业布局&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落地 时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替 代需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深 度受益。 2.新能源汽车 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 小米 YU7 正式发布 我们认为，新能源汽车进入深度渗透的阶段，高性价比车型为 销售者带来更好的体验感，是扩大销售规模的核心推动力。新 车型的发布，短期有望推动关键环节排产上升以及国内销量增 长，中长期有助于新能源汽车行业稳健发展，看好核心供应商 相应机遇。 3.新能源 三北光伏治沙规划获批，2030 年新增装机达 253GW 我国沙戈荒地区蕴含着丰富的资源禀赋，为光伏治沙提供了广 阔的装机空间，国家林草局荒漠化防治司二级巡视员潘红星指 出，"在'沙戈荒'地区划定了对生态影响小、光伏电站建设 成本低的适建区域 1 ...