Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced volatility this week due to potential changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a pullback in AI stocks across most markets [1][2] - The VIX index in the US stock market rose sharply, exceeding 23, indicating increased market uncertainty [2][11] - The current P/E ratios for major indices are high, with the TAMAMA Technology Index at 37.1, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 47.6, and the Nasdaq Index at 41, suggesting that tech stocks in the US are under valuation pressure [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw slight increases of 0.08% and 0.34% respectively, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 0.45% [2][11] - The healthcare sector within the S&P 500 had the highest increase of 3.87%, while the consumer discretionary sector saw the largest decline of 2.74% [11][15] - Concerns about an AI bubble and potential credit issues are prevalent among Wall Street institutions, leading to expectations of further adjustments in the tech sector [1][11] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 1.26%, 1.41%, and 3.01% [2][23] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a slight decline of 0.42% [23] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong showed significant growth, with a 7.18% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector faced a minor decline of 0.82% [27] Economic Data Insights - The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index fell to -7.4, down from -5.4, indicating a decline in investor sentiment [3][39] - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 25, up from 22.7, suggesting improved economic outlook among investors [39] - Japan's PPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.66%, down from 2.75%, reflecting potential inflationary pressures [37][39]

Group 1: Market Overview - The funding market experienced significant upward pressure on interest rates, with R001 and R007 averaging 1.47% and 1.50% respectively, increasing by 10 and 4 basis points week-on-week[1] - The average daily lending volume in the banking system dropped to below 4 trillion yuan, at 3.84 trillion yuan, down from 4.69 trillion yuan the previous week[1] - The pressure on local government bond payments increased, with weekly payment amounts exceeding 500 billion yuan[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The tax period from November 17-19 is expected to have limited impact, with an average tax collection of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan over the past three years[2] - Government bond net payments for the upcoming week are projected at 3629 billion yuan, still above the average level for the year[2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to conduct a net injection of 500 billion yuan during the tax period, mitigating overall payment pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - The PBOC will face a total of 12,420 billion yuan in maturities from November 17-21, with reverse repos accounting for 11,220 billion yuan[3] - The PBOC has announced an excess rollover of 8000 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos on the first day of the tax period[3] Group 4: Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.63%, an increase of 0.4 basis points from the previous week[6] - The upcoming week will see 9209 billion yuan in certificates of deposit maturing, up from 7265 billion yuan the previous week[6] Group 5: Government Bonds - Net payments for government bonds from November 17-21 are expected to be 3629 billion yuan, down from 5075 billion yuan the previous week[5] - The issuance scale for government bonds is projected to be lower, with planned issuance of 3717 billion yuan compared to 5944 billion yuan the previous week[5]

受去年"924"新政后销售放量形成的高基数影响，二手房和新房销售同比增速均承压。本周 15 城二手 房成交面积同比下降 21%，已连续第五周走弱（此前曾连续七周同比改善）；38 城新房成交面积同比跌幅为 34%，已连续第七周录得负增长。然而，若与 2023 年同期比较以剔除高基数扰动，本周成交表现有所改善。 15 城二手房成交面积较 23 年同期增长 14%，增速较上周（+4%）明显回升；38 城新房成交面积较 23 年同期 下跌 21%，降幅亦较上周（下跌 36%）显著收窄。 2）月度： 证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 一线城市二手房价领跌 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度： 二手房成交连续两周下滑后微增。本周（11 月 7-13 日），15 城二手房成交面积为 219 万平方米，环比增 长 3%，但仍处于过去四周（213–233 万平）区间的低位，约相当于年内高点的 74%。 新房亦自近期低点小幅回升。38城新房成交面积为 220 万平方米，环比小幅增长 2%，同样位于过去四周 ...

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.45, with a historical average of 26.03, indicating a significant undervaluation[7] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.37, while the CSI 300 is at 13.45, both below historical averages[9] - The contribution of earnings and valuation changes to index performance shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has a current value change rate of 16.64%[13] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 12.05, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[64] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 22.47, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other sectors[64] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 28.67, with a historical maximum of 41.99 and a minimum of 11.21, suggesting a premium valuation[86] - The NASDAQ Index currently stands at a PE of 41.09, reflecting a high growth expectation in the tech sector[86] Sector-Specific Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels, while sectors like computing and automotive are at high PE levels[24] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has a median PE of 52.91, indicating strong growth expectations[75] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, corporate earnings not meeting forecasts, and significant market volatility[107]

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, the lowest since September of the previous year, down from 6.5% in the previous month[1] - Retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year in October, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking a new low for the year[2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with the decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Sector Analysis - Infrastructure investment fell to -0.1%, marking the first negative growth since September 2020, while manufacturing investment slowed to 2.7%[3] - Real estate sales in October saw a year-on-year decline of 24.3% in sales value and 18.8% in sales area, with declines widening by 12.5 and 8.2 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[4] - The industrial and service sector production index showed a weighted year-on-year growth of 4.7%, while demand-side indicators only grew by -3.5%, marking the largest gap since March 2020[5] Future Outlook - For November and December, industrial added value and service production indices need to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year to offset the slowdown observed in October, aiming to achieve the annual growth target of 5%[6] - The impact of the holiday misalignment on industrial production is expected to diminish in November, although the additional boost to retail will also fade[6] - The upcoming PMI data in November will be crucial for assessing whether counter-cyclical policies need to be intensified, with potential for monetary easing measures[7]

Credit Demand Trends - In October, new social financing (社融) increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5,970 billion yuan, falling short of the market expectation of 1,528.4 billion yuan[1] - New loan issuance (金融机构口径) was 220 billion yuan, down 2,800 billion yuan year-on-year, also below the expected 460 billion yuan[1] - Both new social financing and loan data have shown negative year-on-year growth for three consecutive months, with significant deviations from expectations in October[1] Government Debt and Financing - The new government bond issuance in October was only 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan, nearly matching the overall decline in new social financing[2] - The slowdown in government bond issuance is attributed to local government arrangements rather than quota issues, with potential for increased issuance in November[2] Loan and Financing Structure - New loans under the social financing category were negative at -20.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 3,166 billion yuan[3] - New entrusted loans and corporate bond financing were relatively strong, at 165.3 billion yuan and 246.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 187.2 billion yuan and 148.2 billion yuan[3] Consumer Loan Trends - New household loans were significantly below seasonal levels at -360.4 billion yuan, compared to a ten-year average of 290.8 billion yuan for the same period[4] - Short-term consumer loans saw a decrease of 2,866 billion yuan, indicating a decline in consumer spending willingness[5] Corporate Financing Dynamics - New corporate short-term loans were -190 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans were 30 billion yuan, both at seasonal lows[6] - Overall corporate financing demand was 558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 445.2 billion yuan, driven by various financing tools[6] Deposit Trends - New deposit growth was 610 billion yuan, with significant declines in both household and corporate deposits, at -1,340 billion yuan and -1,085.3 billion yuan respectively[7] - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, indicating a trend of "disintermediation" as funds flow back to banks through non-bank channels[7] Monetary Supply Changes - M1 growth rate fell from 7.2% to 6.2%, while M2 slightly decreased from 8.4% to 8.2%, indicating a widening gap in monetary supply metrics[8] - The decline in M1 is attributed to a significant drop in both household and corporate deposits, suggesting a potential liquidity issue[8] Market Outlook - The persistent weakness in credit demand may lead to a shift in monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated by year-end or early next year[9] - The bond market signals are becoming clearer, suggesting a more favorable environment for bond investments as monetary conditions may ease[9]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：一鼓作气 | | | 资金试图"推举"新能源成为主线，接力 AI 算力成为新动能。就储能而言，9-10 月市场对其逻辑的关注，主 要集中于商业模式独立化和欧美需求扩张。时至当下，资金已将储能与 AIDC 用电需求相联系，逻辑进一步强化。 同时，资金深度挖掘锂电相关题材，例如在储能需求扩张的背景下，电解质添加剂六氟磷酸锂、VC（碳酸亚乙烯 酯）存在供给偏紧的涨价逻辑，推动化工行情显著走强。 值得注意的是，储能板块拥挤度再次来到 2022 年高位附近。根据 Wind 储能指数，储能板块拥挤度（指数成 交额/万得全 A 成交额）为 6.45%，处于 2020 年以来 99.7%分位数。从历史行情来看，2022年 7 月这一数值曾达 到 7%以上，而储能行情在 1 个月后开始走弱。今年 9 月初，储能板块拥挤度再度突破 7%，而在随后的 10 月， 储能行情遭遇大幅调整。从这些经验来看，拥挤度来到高位，并不意味着行情将立即调整，而是指向行情对上涨 逻辑的要求变高。如果行情继续上涨，则是市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company has shown an accelerating revenue trend, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 226 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same quarter was 49 million yuan, up 81.46% year-on-year, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2]. - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international strategy, expand overseas business, and improve overall competitiveness [3]. - The company is a leading supplier of recombinant proteins for industrial clients and is expected to benefit from ongoing domestic and international customer expansion, leading to continued upward performance in the future [3]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the revenue forecast has been adjusted from 841 million yuan to 854 million yuan, with net profit per share (EPS) revised from 1.09 yuan to 1.16 yuan. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 are projected at 54 times [3]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue growth of 32.4% in 2025, with a net profit growth of 57.5% [8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 91% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit margins improving from 19.2% in 2024 to 24.1% in 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company continues to experience rapid growth, with its cell culture media business contributing significantly to performance resilience. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 272 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69 million yuan, up 75.66% year-on-year [2][3] - The cell culture media business saw a revenue of 83 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 48%, driven by product development and market expansion both domestically and internationally. In contrast, the CDMO business experienced a revenue decline of 35% in the same quarter due to demand fluctuations [2] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic culture media market, benefiting from the robust growth of the domestic biopharmaceutical market and domestic substitution trends. The strategic alignment between the CDMO and culture media businesses is expected to support continued high growth in the coming years [3] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of 374 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 69 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 230.1% year-on-year [4][8] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 55% in 2025, improving to 59.5% by 2027. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.61 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.29 yuan by 2027 [4][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 95.83 for 2025, 64.98 for 2026, and 45.21 for 2027, indicating a decreasing trend as earnings grow [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to perform better in Q4 compared to Q3, with the main business of inflatable mattresses experiencing a turning point in inventory reduction, alongside new customer orders contributing to growth. However, the business in Cambodia remains under pressure due to tariff impacts [5] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards, reflecting a more cautious outlook, but maintains a "Buy" rating based on projected earnings growth [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 133 million, 37 million, and 8 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 30.38%, 40.63%, and 68.23% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 818 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, and net profit attributable to the parent of 182 million yuan, up 12.06% [2] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q3 2025 were 28.23% and 27.80%, down 1.07 and 4.80 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory and Receivables - As of Q3 2025, the company's inventory was 231 million yuan, an increase of 11.31% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days rising to 130 days [4] - Accounts receivable decreased by 3.24% year-on-year to 158 million yuan, with turnover days increasing to 56 days [4] Future Outlook - Short-term prospects for Q4 are positive, with expectations of double-digit growth in the inflatable mattress segment and continued strong performance in water sports products, supported by the new manufacturing base in Vietnam [5] - Long-term growth is anticipated in the new materials sector, with a focus on TPU penetration and expansion in overseas outdoor equipment markets [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1,155 million, 1,314 million, and 1,476 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 13.8%, and 12.3% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent is projected to be 213 million, 254 million, and 286 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.0%, 19.3%, and 12.5% [8]