Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with demand entering a seasonal lull. The political bureau meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for orderly competition in key industries, shifting focus from price increases to rational competition and profit improvement [3][4]. - Short-term steel demand is expected to decline seasonally, leading to potential price corrections. However, long-term capacity governance remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability in steel companies as supply dynamics optimize [3][4]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in steel production and inventory levels, with total steel production rising to 8.67 million tons, while social inventory increased by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 1, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,350 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY), hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton (down 120 CNY), and cold-rolled steel at 3,860 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY) [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.67 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 9,000 tons to 2.11 million tons. Social inventory rose by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons, indicating a mixed inventory situation [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profitability showed fluctuations, with long-process rebar and hot-rolled steel margins changing by +20 CNY/ton and -14 CNY/ton respectively. Short-process electric arc furnace steel margins increased by +38 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas, and New Natural Gas [5]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and economic concerns are driving significant fluctuations in oil prices, with recent U.S. sanctions on Iran and potential tariffs on countries trading with Russia impacting market sentiment [1][9]. - The report highlights that Russia's oil exports are projected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, with U.S. sanctions potentially disrupting global oil supply [2][10]. - The report notes an increase in the U.S. dollar index and rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures settling at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a 1.80% increase week-on-week [3][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong risk resilience and resource advantages, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, which are expected to benefit from stable oil prices and high dividend yields [14]. Oil Price Performance - As of August 1, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $69.67 per barrel, up 1.80% from the previous week, while WTI futures settled at $67.33 per barrel, up 3.33% [38][39]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.31 million barrels per day, while refinery throughput decreased to 16.91 million barrels per day, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [11][12]. - The report indicates that U.S. crude oil inventories rose, with strategic reserves at 402.74 million barrels, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 240,000 barrels [13]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with China National Petroleum Corporation expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan in 2024, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and Zhongmei Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will rebound to the "8" range due to dual support from supply and demand, with a price center expected to maintain around 700 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity demand, with total power generation growth reaching 8.57% year-on-year, and thermal power growth at 5.48% [2][7]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to production checks and adverse weather conditions, leading to a structural shortage of coal [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are on an upward trend, driven by supply constraints and increased electricity demand [2][7]. - It mentions that the daily coal consumption of power plants has risen to over 6 million tons, with further upward potential [2][7]. 2. Market Performance - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 4.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report details the performance of various coal companies, with Jin Control Coal Industry experiencing the largest decline of 11.94% [17][20]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the tightening supply in the coal market, with significant drops in railway shipments and port inventories [2][9]. - It highlights the expected recovery in production capacity in mid-August, which may influence price dynamics [2][7]. 4. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, stable performance, and growth potential, such as Lu'an Huanneng, Jin Control Coal Industry, and others [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, driven significantly by AI demand for optical device products, with a revenue of 993 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 121.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 217 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1712.0% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 214 million yuan, up 12667.4% [1] - The company is increasing its R&D investment to strengthen its positioning in advanced fields, with notable progress in high-end products [3] - The acquisition of a majority stake in Fokexima, a leading MT connector supplier, is expected to enhance the company's control over core raw materials and reduce overall product costs [4] - The company forecasts significant profit growth for 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 452 million, 661 million, and 855 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 56, 39, and 30 [4] Revenue Structure Summary - In the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown includes: - Optical chips and devices: 700 million yuan, up 190.9% - Indoor optical cables: 150 million yuan, up 52.9% - Cable polymer materials: 126 million yuan, up 23.4% [2] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 37.38%, a significant increase from 26.33% in 2024 [2] R&D Investment Summary - R&D expenses for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 were 96 million, 103 million, and 61 million yuan respectively, indicating a commitment to innovation [3] - The company has developed new products suitable for high-capacity optical modules and is making progress in client validation [3] Financial Forecast Summary - The projected financial metrics for 2024 to 2027 include: - Revenue: 1,075 million (2024), 2,070 million (2025), 2,832 million (2026), 3,544 million (2027) - Net profit: 65 million (2024), 452 million (2025), 661 million (2026), 855 million (2027) [5][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate at the 4.25-4.50% range, consistent with market expectations [3] - Economic growth has shifted from a "solid pace" to a "moderate" pace, with consumer spending weakening and the housing market remaining sluggish. The Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is reported at 3.0%, primarily driven by a decrease in net imports [4] - Inflation data has shown marginal strengthening, with the June PCE price index increasing by 2.6%, surpassing expectations of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The core PCE price index also rose by 2.8%, indicating uncertainty in the inflation trajectory [5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the potential for a rate cut in September hinges on upcoming data, particularly focusing on core PCE price index trends and unemployment rates. The FOMC will closely monitor these indicators to assess economic balance [5] - There is a noted division among FOMC voting members, with two members voting against maintaining the current rate, highlighting a rare occurrence of dissent within the board. This indicates a split in perspectives among the FOMC members [6]

Group 1 - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-bank financial sector [2][43]. - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the current market sentiment is recovering, supported by a series of policy implementations, which may lead to further increases in trading volume and index rebounds [43][44]. - The report highlights that the brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is still at historical low levels, indicating potential for growth [44]. Group 2 - The report reviews the performance of the brokerage sector from 2003 to 2025, noting that the sector has experienced significant excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index during various market cycles [5][9]. - It identifies that the brokerage sector's beta has shown a slight recovery in 2025, currently at 1.66, indicating higher volatility compared to the market [5][6]. - The report points out that the current trading volume in the brokerage sector is positively correlated with the index performance, suggesting that increased trading activity often leads to higher index values [23][41]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the H-share brokerage stocks have shown stronger elasticity in the current market cycle, outperforming their A-share counterparts significantly [12][16]. - It notes that the average daily trading volume of the H-share brokerage sector has reached historical highs, with a peak of 15.3% of the total Hong Kong market trading volume [41]. - The report recommends specific brokerage firms such as GF Securities, East Money, CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Hong Kong Exchanges for investment consideration [44].

城投债投资框架之一 城投债定价模型综述 2025 年 08 月 01 日 ➢ 城投债定价策略模型综述：城投债定价策略模型需要同时考虑城投平台自身 资质、平台所在区域基本面以及国家政策边际变化，结合短中长期的期限时间来 进行最终定价。 ➢ 城投债定价策略模型：主要包括五大部分，分别是城投平台层级、融资能力， 市场情绪及投资主体，政府信用及债务管控以及区域实力与竞争力，同时还需要 考虑一些特殊变量因素。 ➢ 不同视角看城投平台的考量因素：从短期视角（期限 0-1 年）来看，城投平 台层级、融资能力、市场情绪、投资主体是主要考量因素。从中期视角（期限 1- 3 年）来看，政府信用、区域经济基本面与债务管控机制是影响定价策略的重要 因素。而从长期视角（期限 3 年以上）来看，区域实力、省市竞争力是最大影响 因素，决定了城投债定价的底层逻辑。 ➢ 部分变量因素也会影响城投债定价策略：部分变量因素也正在时时影响城投 债的发行票面利率与二级市场估值，也能在中长期影响城投平台所在区域的产业 基本面与发展竞争力，因而需要给予一定程度重视。从短期来看，每年全国"两 会"正式公布的"赤字率"及"广义财政赤字"，当年的新增地方一般债 ...

- The report constructs a bottom-up framework for forecasting social financing (社融) by analyzing sub-items based on economic logic, high-frequency data, and seasonal characteristics[1][8][9] - The framework includes predictive models for various sub-items such as enterprise loans, resident short-term loans, government bonds, and corporate bonds, using specific economic indicators like PMI, housing sales data, and high-frequency issuance data[9] - For enterprise loans and resident short-term loans, the model employs rolling regression with PMI and Tangshan steel plant capacity utilization rate as independent variables[9] - Resident medium-to-long-term loans are forecasted based on housing mortgage data and three-stage characteristics of housing sales[9] - Enterprise bill financing is modeled using a rolling regression with a 5-year window, taking discount rates as exogenous variables[9] - Government bonds are tracked using high-frequency issuance and maturity data, with adjustments for discrepancies in reporting standards[9] - Corporate bonds are forecasted using a 5-year rolling regression to reallocate weights, effectively reducing reporting discrepancies[9] - Foreign currency loans are predicted using a 3-month average, considering correlations with RMB exchange rates and US-China bond yield spreads[9] - Trust loans and entrusted loans are forecasted by tracking issuance and maturity disclosures, with additional judgment for infrastructure-related increments[9] - Non-discounted bank acceptance bills are estimated using a 3-year average due to the cessation of high-frequency data publication[9] - Non-financial enterprise domestic stock financing is forecasted by deducting financial enterprise portions from monthly net equity financing data[9] - Loan write-offs are predicted using values from the same period last year, considering significant seasonal effects[9] - Asset-backed securities (ABS) issued by deposit-taking financial institutions are tracked using high-frequency ABS net financing data[9] - The July 2025 forecast predicts new social financing of approximately 1.53 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 760 billion RMB, with a TTM month-on-month growth rate of 2.05% and a stock growth rate of 9.11%[8][9][18] - Structural predictions for July 2025 include government bonds net financing at 1.18 trillion RMB, corporate bonds net financing at 390 billion RMB, and resident medium-to-long-term loans at 5 billion RMB[9][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan aimed at enhancing long-term growth, covering up to 258 core technical and managerial personnel, with a total of no more than 1.8 million shares, representing 0.30% of the current total share capital [1][2] - The employee stock plan is priced at 24.97 CNY per share, which is a 47.03% discount compared to the current price, indicating a significant incentive to attract and retain talent [2] - The company is advancing in smart and electric vehicle technologies, becoming the first domestic supplier to mass-produce line control braking systems and EPB, with plans to expand production capacity significantly [3] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including a 45% stake in Wanda, enhancing its product offerings and operational efficiency, with plans to establish a new suspension technology company [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 130.75 billion CNY, 170.89 billion CNY, and 220.44 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 15.94 billion CNY, 21.04 billion CNY, and 27.93 billion CNY [4][5] - The expected EPS for the same period is 2.63 CNY, 3.47 CNY, and 4.60 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 14, and 10 [5][4] - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of approximately 31.6% in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 31.9% [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global printer market, with its brand BenQ continuously enhancing its competitive edge and solidifying its market leadership [3]. - The semiconductor segment, particularly in automotive and industrial applications, is expanding, creating new growth opportunities for the company [3]. Summary by Sections Printer Business - The company has established itself as a global leader in the printer industry, with a sales network spanning over 110 countries and regions. It has developed a comprehensive supply chain covering key components, printers, and printing management services [10][13]. - BenQ's market share in the global printer market reached 2.9% in Q4 2024, up from 2.6% in Q3 2024, and is projected to increase to 3.1% in Q1 2025 [13]. - The company has a strong R&D team of over 2,000 people and holds more than 6,200 patents, showcasing its technological capabilities [19]. - The A3 printer segment saw a remarkable sales increase of 131.44% year-on-year in 2024, with a quarterly growth of 401.41% in Q4 [23]. - The introduction of AI features and smart printing solutions has further strengthened its position in the consumer market [24]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor division has been active for over 20 years, with significant investments leading to accelerated growth. The company has established itself as a key player in the semiconductor industry, particularly in automotive electronics [2][49]. - The company has successfully launched several chips for automotive applications, including the GURC01 ultrasonic sensor, which has been adopted by major automotive manufacturers [2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix in the semiconductor field, including high-performance microcontrollers and automotive-grade chips [62]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 3.93 billion, 13.56 billion, and 19.06 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 85X, 25X, and 18X [3]. - The report highlights the potential for significant profit growth, especially after the divestiture of Lexmark, which is expected to enhance the company's focus on its core printing business [48].