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可转债周度追踪:8月十大转债-2023年8月-20250803
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 12:48
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In August, the liability side of pure bonds is likely to stabilize, and the medium - to long - term upward trend of the equity market remains unchanged. The convertible bond market is expected to present a state of "coexistence of opportunities and risks". It is recommended to explore opportunities from three aspects: anti - involution, underlying stock elasticity, and dividend allocation [1][2][12] - In the past week, the equity market adjusted, and convertible bonds adjusted more significantly. The adjustment of the convertible bond market was partly driven by profit - taking of some funds, and the increased volatility of the pure bond market also led to instability in the liability side of convertible bonds [2][7] - In July, absolute - return funds partially took profits, while public funds and other institutions increased their holdings. The inflow of funds supported the valuation expansion of the convertible bond market in July [2][7] - The valuation expansion of convertible bonds in July reflected the inflow of funds and market recognition, and the option value of convertible bonds was re - priced during the continuous breakthrough of the equity market [2][7] - The hot market sentiment can be seen from the performance of new bonds. In July, 9 convertible bonds were listed, the highest number since 2025. The market efficiently digested the large - scale circulation of Guanghe Convertible Bonds, indicating high demand from investors for new bonds [2][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The equity market adjusted in the past week, with convertible bonds adjusting more. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 3600 to around 3550. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.92% last week, and the convertible bond underlying stock equal - weighted index fell 0.51% [2][7] - Absolute - return funds partially took profits in July, while public funds, fund special accounts, and securities asset management significantly increased their holdings of convertible bonds. The proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds, fund special accounts, and securities assets exceeded 40%, supporting the valuation expansion of the convertible bond market in July [2][7] - The valuation expansion of convertible bonds in July reflected the inflow of funds and market recognition, and the option value of convertible bonds was re - priced. The performance of new bonds also showed the hot market sentiment [2][7] - Looking ahead to August, the convertible bond market will face a relatively mild stock - bond market, presenting a state of "coexistence of opportunities and risks". It is recommended to focus on three aspects: anti - involution industries, underlying stocks with high growth volatility and low - premium convertible bonds, and low - volatility bottom - position convertible bonds for dividend asset allocation. The top ten convertible bonds recommended for August are Ran 23 Convertible Bond, Hongcheng Convertible Bond, etc. [2][12] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The table shows the performance of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods, such as the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Material Index, etc. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index was - 3.11 in the past week, 1.50 in the past two weeks, etc. [15] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds No specific content provided other than the chart indication 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation No specific content provided other than the chart indication 2.4 Convertible Bond Price No specific content provided other than the chart indication
煤炭行业周报(8月第1周):神华拟收购集团资产,8月煤价有望上涨-20250803
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 11:22
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Shenhua plans to acquire group assets, and coal prices are expected to rise in August. Domestic power plants maintain daily coal consumption, leading to continued price increases. The coal association has advocated for controlling production and improving quality, while the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to environmental factors affecting capacity utilization, with supply and demand gradually balancing in the second half of the year [6][42]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector declined, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.81 percentage points, with a drop of 4.56% as of August 1, 2025. Among 37 stocks, Chengzhi Co. had the smallest decline at 0.89% [2]. - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 6.64 million tons from July 25 to July 31, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9% but a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The total coal inventory was 28.87 million tons, down 5.5% week-on-week and up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. Price Trends - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 665 CNY/ton, up 0.15% week-on-week. The price of imported thermal coal was 763 CNY/ton, up 0.13% week-on-week. Prices at various ports, including Qinhuangdao and Huanghua, also saw increases [3]. - For coking coal, the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was stable at 1,650 CNY/ton, while prices for metallurgical coke increased by 3.4% for first-grade and 3.94% for second-grade [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 146.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. Power and chemical industries saw coal consumption changes of -2.7% and +16.9% respectively [2][41]. - The chemical industry’s total coal consumption was reported at 21.39 million tons as of August 1, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and turnaround coking coal companies. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][42].
钢铁周报:不看深跌,看好金九银十旺季-20250803
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 10:58
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes optimism for the steel industry during the peak seasons of September and October, suggesting that the current price declines should not deter investment [1]. - The report highlights that the overall inventory levels for major steel products have shown a slight increase, which may impact future pricing dynamics [4]. - The report notes that the average daily production of molten iron is projected to remain stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The SW Steel Index has decreased by 2.2% week-on-week but has increased by 16.4% year-to-date [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is currently at 3,350 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.9% and a year-to-date decrease of 1.8% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of the five major steel products stands at 941,000 tons, with a year-to-date increase of 2% [4]. - The total inventory at steel mills is reported at 410,000 tons, which has increased by 16.9% year-to-date [4]. Supply and Demand - The report indicates that the average daily production of major steel products is expected to remain consistent, supporting stable market conditions [8]. - The report also mentions that the iron ore price index is currently at 99 USD per ton, down by 3.5% week-on-week [3].
食饮行业周报(2025年7月第4期):白酒关注中秋国庆表现,重视新消费回调机会-20250803
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 09:59
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day performance for the liquor industry, recommending strong brand leaders in the liquor sector, particularly in the white liquor category [1][10] - The new consumption trend is expected to continue despite a short-term adjustment, with opportunities for investment in brands that align with rational quality consumption and emotional value [2][24] - The white liquor sector is advised to focus on potential policy catalysts and low-level rebounds, with a cautious assumption of profit bottoms for leading companies [10] Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - Recommended brands include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on strong brand momentum and high ROE, dividends, and share buybacks [1][10] - The white liquor sector experienced a decline of 2.40% during the trading period from July 28 to August 1, with specific companies like Zhenjiu Lidu and Gujing Gongjiu facing significant drops [3][30] Consumer Goods Sector - The new consumption sector is undergoing a structural adjustment but remains a key area for investment, with recommended stocks including Weidong Meishi, Wancheng Group, and Yili Group [2][24] - The consumer goods sector saw a mixed performance, with meat products gaining slightly while non-dairy beverages and white liquor faced declines [11][30] Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai is expanding its market presence through partnerships with platforms like Meituan, indicating a strategic move to enhance distribution channels [5] - Jinshiyuan is focusing on national expansion, with a clear three-step plan to establish itself as a leading brand in the high-end liquor market [6][7] Market Data - The report notes that the white liquor price for Moutai remains stable at 1860 RMB per bottle, with similar stability observed in other leading brands [9][47] - The overall valuation for the food and beverage industry is reported at 20.66 times, with the white liquor sector showing a valuation of 18.06 times [35]
绿色算力投资手册(上):低碳化与数字化双引擎驱动,绿色算力多维度创新发展
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 04:49
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the green computing industry Core Insights - Green computing is driven by the dual engines of "decarbonization" and "digitalization," making it a crucial component of new productive forces in the AI era [2][3] - The global computing power is projected to grow at a rate exceeding 50% over the next five years, with China's computing power reaching 230 EFLOPS, averaging a growth rate of nearly 30% over the past five years [2] - The energy consumption of AI data centers is expected to rise significantly, with IT energy consumption reaching 77.7 TWh in 2025 and 146.2 TWh by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 44.8% from 2022 to 2027 [2] - Green computing encompasses three main areas: indirect carbon emissions from energy sourcing, algorithm selection and data center operations, and enabling industry transformation for carbon reduction [4][5] Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - Green computing is an inevitable choice in the AI era, serving as a key driver for the development of new productive forces [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of balancing efficient supply and sustainable development in the computing power industry [3] Mid-level Analysis - The carbon footprint of green computing includes indirect emissions from energy sourcing, lifecycle emissions from infrastructure, and direct emissions from operations [4] - The ECCI framework emphasizes efficient computing, energy conservation, clean collaboration, and inclusive usage [5][36] Micro-level Practices - Leading tech companies are implementing innovative green computing practices, such as Amazon's AWS migration reducing carbon emissions by 99%, Google's 24/7 carbon-free energy operations, and Microsoft's circular centers achieving a 90.9% server remanufacturing rate [7][8] - Tencent's deployment of renewable energy facilities and Alibaba Cloud's immersion cooling technology are notable examples of green computing initiatives in China [8]
A股市场运行周报第52期:短线调整中线无碍,先观望、再择机-20250802
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-02 11:17
Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a short-term adjustment phase due to the significant rise of the US dollar and the pullback of leading sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, but the overall upward trend remains intact [1][4][55] - The adjustment is expected to last approximately two weeks, with key technical supports at the 20-day moving average, lower gaps, and the upward trend line for the Shanghai Composite Index [1][4][55] - Even if the trend line is breached, the 60-day moving average will serve as a reliable medium-term support, indicating that the overall market outlook remains positive for a "slow bull" market [1][4][55] Market Overview - The market experienced an overall adjustment this week, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 declining by 0.94%, 1.48%, and 1.75% respectively [11][53] - The technology growth sector showed relative strength, while cyclical sectors experienced significant pullbacks, with materials and coal down by 4.69% and 4.56% respectively [12][54] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 17.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline in market sentiment [19] Industry Configuration - The recommended industry allocation strategy is a balanced approach of "1+1+X," focusing on large financials (banks and brokerages) alongside technology growth sectors such as military, computing, media, electronics, and new energy [1][4][56] - There is an emphasis on identifying low-position stocks above the annual line within sectors to optimize "high-low cut" operations [1][4][56] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend as long as the key technical supports hold, with potential short-term buying opportunities if the index maintains the upward trend line and the US dollar against the offshore RMB begins to decline [1][4][55] - Historical patterns suggest that the Shanghai Composite Index may aim to surpass its previous high of 3674 points, with reliable short-term supports identified at recent gaps and moving averages [4][52][55]
创世纪(300083):深度报告:3C设备龙头,消费电子周期复苏、新领域拓展促增长
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 13:28
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the 3C equipment sector, benefiting from the recovery in the consumer electronics cycle and expansion into new fields [2][7]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is approximately 404 million, 548 million, and 659 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 70%, 36%, and 20% respectively [2][8]. - The company is expected to leverage its competitive advantages in R&D and scale to benefit from the upcoming innovation cycle in the consumer electronics sector and the rapid development of humanoid robots and low-altitude economy [7][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is forecasted to reach 46.05 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [3][30]. - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24, 0.33, and 0.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34, 25, and 21 [3][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5% in 2025 to 10% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [3][36]. Industry Overview - The global machine tool market is projected to grow from approximately 1292 billion dollars in 2025 to 2304.2 billion dollars by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.5% [7][39]. - The machine tool industry is experiencing a recovery driven by the replacement cycle and the resurgence of the manufacturing sector, with a significant increase in demand for high-precision CNC machine tools [7][39]. - The consumer electronics sector is entering a new innovation cycle, which is expected to drive demand for upstream equipment beyond initial expectations [7][10]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive product line and strong competitive positioning, which enhances customer loyalty through its direct sales model [7][10]. - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, which is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities and improve overall profitability [10][27]. Growth Catalysts - Key growth drivers include the recovery of the 3C market, the resurgence of the manufacturing sector, and exceeding expectations in orders from general and emerging fields [11][10].
宏观视角解读国债等利息收入增值税恢复征收:恢复征收国债等利息增值税影响趋于中性
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 13:25
Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025[1] - Interest income from bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity[1] - The VAT rate for bond interest income is set at 6%, with an additional 12% VAT surcharge, leading to a total effective tax rate of 6.34% on taxable amounts[2] Market Impact - The policy change is expected to have a limited impact due to the continued VAT exemption for pre-2025 bonds, potentially leading to short-term institutional buying[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low expectations for large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1] Taxation Details - The taxable amount for bond investments includes both interest income and transfer price differences, with the latter subject to VAT as well[2][3] - Corporate bond investors face a corporate income tax rate of 29.76% after accounting for VAT and income tax exemptions on certain bonds[4] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with fiscal policy implementation not meeting expectations and potential unexpected adjustments to tax incentives[6]
思摩尔国际(06969):大客户英美烟草发布25H1业绩,GloHilo日本销售反馈乐观
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 12:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The new tobacco products from British American Tobacco (BAT) contributed significantly to profits in the first half of 2025, with revenues of £1.651 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and an adjusted gross profit of £1.006 billion, up 6.8% [1] - BAT expects accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, projecting a mid-single-digit revenue growth for the full year [1] - The Glo Hilo product received positive feedback from its trial in Sendai, Japan, and there are plans for further promotion in Europe [2] - The heated tobacco segment saw a slight revenue increase of 0.8% in the first half of 2025, although market share declined due to increased competition [2] - The vaping segment faced challenges, with Vuse sales down 12.9% and revenues down 15.3% due to the proliferation of illegal products [3] - The oral tobacco segment, particularly Velo, experienced significant growth, with sales up 42.2% and revenues up 38.1% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is optimistic about the future growth of Glo Hilo and the oral tobacco segment, while the vaping segment may recover due to regulatory actions against illegal products [5] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are £13.161 billion, £15.590 billion, and £18.633 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.55%, 18.45%, and 19.52% respectively [5] - Projected net profits for the same period are £1.311 billion, £2.040 billion, and £2.763 billion, with growth rates of 0.57%, 55.68%, and 35.40% respectively [5] - The current market capitalization is approximately HK$131.19 billion [6]
小商品城(600415):新市场招商火热,携手阿里加速AI外贸场景落地
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-01 12:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant growth due to upcoming developments and market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The company has completed a leadership transition with a new chairman appointed in July 2025, which is expected to bring fresh strategic direction [1]. - The ongoing recruitment efforts in the overseas and payment sectors have successfully brought in high-caliber international talent, enhancing the company's operational capabilities [3]. - The launch of the global digital trade center is set to open in October 2025, with strong demand leading to increased prices and a growing concentration of businesses in the area [2]. - The partnership with Alibaba to initiate AI model testing marks a significant step in the company's digital transformation, with AI tools already showing substantial user engagement and efficiency improvements [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 indicate a robust growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 201 billion, 250 billion, and 290 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 25%, and 16% [4]. Summary by Sections Leadership Changes - The company completed a board leadership change in July 2025, with Chen Dezhan taking over as chairman and leading the strategic and ESG committee [1]. Market Development - The global digital trade center, covering 562 acres and with a total investment of 8.32 billion, is set to enhance market presence and operational capacity [2]. Talent Acquisition - The company has successfully onboarded high-end international talent in its overseas and payment sectors, with plans to continue attracting experienced professionals [3]. Digital Transformation - The collaboration with Alibaba on AI tools has resulted in over 1 billion uses of AI features on the Chinagoods platform, significantly improving operational efficiency for users [4]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates achieving revenues of 201 billion, 250 billion, and 290 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 43.53 billion, 61.42 billion, and 66.68 billion, indicating strong growth potential [4].