Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market rose rapidly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.56% and a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The conflict between Iran and Israel has limited direct impact on the A-share market. Given the current credit contraction and insufficient demand, the index is unlikely to break through the central level and rise significantly. However, with the improvement in corporate earnings in H1 2025 compared to 2024 and the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not experience a sharp decline in the short term. It is expected that the index will mainly fluctuate in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, the 10-year main contract down 0.11%, the 5-year main contract down 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2092 billion yuan. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly and is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a significant upward trend, with multiple sectors rising. The conflict between Iran and Israel had limited direct impact on the A-share market. The domestic economy faces challenges such as credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings have improved, leading to an expected volatile trend for the index [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open market operations led to a slight tightening of the capital market. Given the economic resilience and the approaching half-year end, the bond market is likely to remain range-bound [1][2]. Price Changes in Futures Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 24, 2025, IH rose 1.10%, IF rose 1.45%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 2.46% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.20%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.62%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.30% [3]. Market News - An event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War will be held on September 3, including a military parade, and President Xi Jinping will deliver an important speech [4]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, providing a visual reference for the performance of stock index futures [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, helping to analyze the treasury bond futures market [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and other currency pairs, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, offering insights into the foreign exchange market [20][21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term market will mainly be in low - level consolidation. The iron ore, coking coal, and coke markets are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner in the short term [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research View - **Steel**: The rebar futures market showed a strong - side volatile trend yesterday. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased. The inventory change was not significant, and the steel billet exports increased significantly, alleviating the domestic supply pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore futures rose yesterday. The port spot price declined. The global iron ore shipments increased slightly, the demand side continued to increase, and the inventory of 47 ports decreased while the steel mills' inventory increased. It is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose yesterday. The spot price in some areas decreased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong with light trading. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was rigid. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose yesterday. The spot price at the port declined, the fourth round of price reduction was implemented, and the coking enterprises' production - cut expectation increased. The demand was in a good state. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner on Monday. The spot price in some areas increased. The weekly output was at a low level but rising, the demand improved slightly but was still low year - on - year, and the cost support was limited. It is expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner on Monday. The spot price was basically flat. The weekly output increased, the demand improved slightly, and the cost support was weak. It is expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being 4.0, down 3.0; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 9.0, up 2.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also had different changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 95.0, down 3.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 42.8, down 5.2 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different regions and varieties showed different trends, like the Shanghai rebar price remaining unchanged at 3090.0 yuan/ton, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port dropping to 708.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties changed, such as the rebar's disk profit being 94.6, down 2.2; the coil - rebar spread being 117.0, down 7.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 - 2025, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the inter - period contract spread trend charts of different varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [25][27][31][33][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It provides the inter - variety contract spread trend charts of main contracts, like the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc [39][40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit trend charts of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [50]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The current director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal industry [50]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish with a focus on spreads and long - side approach [1] - Oils: Bullish [1] - Eggs: Bearish [1] - Pigs: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are supported by the purchase price increase of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China, but the market is waiting for news of imported corn auctions. Technically, it is advisable to participate in short - term long positions with a light position [1]. - The decline in soybean meal prices is due to the drop in import costs and increased domestic supply pressure. It is recommended to hold long spreads and maintain a long - side single - position strategy [1]. - Palm oil prices are affected by factors such as strong crude oil prices and a weakening Malaysian ringgit. For oils, a strategy of long futures and selling out - of - the - money call options, along with buying September and selling January contracts for soybean oil and palm oil, is suggested [1]. - Egg prices are under pressure from supply and the negative impact of the rainy season on demand. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to farmers' culling intentions and market sentiment [1]. - Pig prices are rising, with the spot price rebound supporting the futures price. It is recommended to hold long positions and observe [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Israel is continuing to attack Iran's military infrastructure while seeking to end the war as soon as possible [3]. - From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 2.67% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.5% month - on - month [3]. - India's soybean oil imports in June are expected to decline by 18% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in four months [3]. - China calls on the international community to promote conflict de - escalation to prevent the regional situation from affecting the global economy [3]. - Iran's Revolutionary Guard has launched the 21st round of the "True Commitment - 3" operation, targeting military and logistics support centers across Israel [3]. - China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation plans to hold a competitive procurement session for 14,000 tons of sunflower oil on June 26 [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][7][8][12] - The report also shows various contract basis, such as those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [14][18][19][25]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. ICE US cotton rose 1.29% to 67.56 cents/pound on Monday, while CF509 fell 0.3% to 13,465 yuan/ton. Macro - level disturbances persist internationally, and the domestic market is affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The current low inventory of domestic old cotton supports prices, but demand - side drivers are weak, and new cotton is expected to have a good harvest. The overall cotton demand remains but is difficult to improve significantly [1] - The sugar market is also expected to continue its oscillatory trend. Pakistan's decision to import 750,000 tons of sugar has pushed up domestic sugar prices. International regional conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have boosted raw sugar prices. The short - term fundamentals lack news guidance, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and the basis are currently strong supports for the futures price [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by geopolitical news and the movement of the US dollar index, while the domestic market is influenced by crude oil prices. The low inventory of old cotton supports prices, but demand is weak, and new cotton is expected to be abundant. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [1] - **Sugar**: Pakistan's import decision has affected domestic prices. International conflicts and crude oil price fluctuations have an impact on raw sugar. The short - term fundamentals lack news, and the medium - term outlook is for a good harvest. The stable domestic spot price and basis support the futures price [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 35, down 15; the main basis is 1429, up 45. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,780 yuan/ton, up 16, and the national spot price is 14,894 yuan/ton, up 15 [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 144, up 10; the main basis is 334, down 1. The Nanning spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,493, down 39 from the previous trading day, with 300 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.2 to 53.4, and the yarn comprehensive inventory increased by 0.6 to 27.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 49.1, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 33.1 [3] - **Sugar**: On June 23, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6050 yuan/ton, up 20, and the Liuzhou price was 6055 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis, contract spreads, the difference between domestic and foreign prices under a 1% tariff quota, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [6][8][9] - **Sugar**: The report includes charts on the closing price of the main sugar contract, the basis, contract spreads, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17] 5. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda - ash glass, and cotton, respectively. They have rich experience and many honors in the industry [19][20][21]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.35%至 9694.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.15%至 | | | 78450 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度加大。宏观方面，美国 6 月 Markit | | | 综合 PMI 初值 52.8，高于预期 52.1，低于前值 53，创两个月新低，数据显示经济仍 | | | 在扩张之势，减缓了市场的担忧，但制造业和服务业都面临显著的价格上涨，通胀压 | | | 力逐渐显现。欧元区综合 PMI 从 5 月份的 52.2 降至 50.8，触及五个月低点，疲软的 | | | 欧元区经济与美经济韧性形成对比，或有利于美元的企稳。库存方面，LME 库存下降 | | | 3325 吨至 95875 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 1132 吨至 182524 吨；SMM 周一统计全国主 | | | 流地区铜库存环比上周五下降 1.63 万吨至 12.96 万吨，相比上周四库存的变化，全国 | | 铜 | 各地区的库存均是下降的。伊以 ...

1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 6 月 2 4 日 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 660. ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点评 23 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2508 收于 30615 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.3%，持 仓增仓 52026 手至 78183 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 3885 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2509 收于 7420 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.2%，持仓减仓 2437 手至 30.3 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水扩至 170 元/吨。西南复产增速进入瓶颈期，下游稍有排产放量，需求 短期回暖，硅厂重拾封盘不报策略，工业硅止跌但反弹难及前高位置，以 区间高抛低吸为主。6 月多晶硅北减南增，西南复产增量更为明确，终端 需求大幅转弱，自下而上压价态延续，多晶硅仍以偏空思路对待。月内双 硅边际或有短暂分歧，持续关注双硅复产动向和比价关系，PS-SI 价差收 敛机会。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES ...

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光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...