1. Index Movements - On June 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 3381.58 points, with a turnover of 442.789 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.43% to close at 10048.39 points, with a turnover of 679.817 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.31% with a turnover of 239.995 billion yuan, opening at 5966.5, closing at 6078.22, with a daily high of 6083.53 and a low of 5965.66 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.61% with a turnover of 146.035 billion yuan, opening at 5613.28, closing at 5674.17, with a daily high of 5684.4 and a low of 5613.28 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.41% with a turnover of 72.036 billion yuan, opening at 2664.64, closing at 2684.78, with a daily high of 2692.91 and a low of 2656.68 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% with a turnover of 232.482 billion yuan, opening at 3831.17, closing at 3857.9, with a daily high of 3867.59 and a low of 3827.08 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 78.63 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 34.66 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and national defense and military industry significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 300 rose 11.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as communication and food and beverage pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 11.06 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - bank finance, and coal significantly pulling the index up, while the food and beverage sector pulled the index down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 66.55, IM01 was - 141.01, IM02 was - 217.17, and IM03 was - 390.88 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 46.1, IC01 was - 97.95, IC02 was - 149.85, and IC03 was - 271.17 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 35.08, IF01 was - 50.58, IF02 was - 63.57, and IF03 was - 92.48 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was - 33.35, IH01 was - 35.67, IH02 was - 34.33, and IH03 was - 36.34 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][25][26]. - For IC, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [21][27]. - For IF, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [22]. - For IH, specific roll - over point differences and corresponding 15 - minute average data are provided at different times, along with the corresponding annualized costs [23][24].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 6 月 2 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 654.0 | 652.5 | 1.5 | I05-I09 | -44.0 | -43.0 | -1.0 | | I09 | 698.0 | 695.5 | 2.5 | I09-I01 | 26.0 | 25.0 | 1.0 | | I01 | 672.0 | 670.5 | 1.5 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 0 ...

一、研究观点 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四尿素期货价格继续上涨受阻，主力合约全天偏弱震荡，收盘价1780元/吨，微 幅下跌0.22%。现货市场走势分化，局部地区仍有小幅上涨，另有部分地区稳定或 | | | | 小幅回落。山东、河南地区市场价格昨日分别继续上涨至1840元/吨、1830元/吨， | | | | 江苏地区市场价格小幅回落10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平继续回落，昨日 | | | 尿素 | 行业日产量20万吨，日环比下降0.13万吨。需求端跟进力度进一步放缓，昨日主流 | 震荡 | | | 地区产销率回落至低位，多数位于5%~70%区间波动。另外，国际市场对国内情绪 | | | | 扰动力度逐渐减弱，尿素期货市场情绪逐渐回归理性。考虑到国内仍有追肥及出口 | | | | 作为支撑，短线盘面下跌空间或有限，建议以震荡思路对待。继续关注全球局势及 | | | | 国际尿素价格、国内需求跟进力度。 | | | | 周四纯碱期货价格坚挺震荡，主力09合约收盘价117 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 19, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.17% to 60,060 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 60,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 58,850 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 250 yuan/ton to 59,170 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 250 yuan/ton to 64,320 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 10 tons to 29,957 tons [4]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 335 tons to 18,462 tons, with the increase mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene. Lithium extraction from lepidolite and salt lakes increased slightly, while lithium extraction from recycling decreased slightly. The supply in June showed a significant month - on - month growth rate. On the demand side, the actual consumption of lithium carbonate increased slightly month - on - month. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 1,352 tons to 134,901 tons, with upstream inventory increasing by 972 tons to 58,265 tons, downstream inventory decreasing by 320 tons to 40,366 tons, and intermediate inventory increasing by 700 tons to 35,910 tons. Currently, there are no new production suspension or reduction actions at the mine end, and the oversupply situation will expand in June. Also, the price of lithium ore lags behind. If the price of lithium salt rises rapidly, production and hedging incentives will emerge again, putting pressure on prices [4]. - The current price is basically at the stage - bottom range. The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the price may be affected by capital fluctuations, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from June 18 to June 19, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc. For example, the main contract closing price of futures increased by 180 yuan/ton to 60,060 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 52,150 yuan/ton [6]. - It also shows price differences such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate. For instance, the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 250 yuan/ton to - 1,280 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lepidolite (with different Li₂O contents), and lithiophilite (with different Li₂O contents) from 2024 to 2025 [7][9]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [13][15][17]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [20][22]. 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][27][30]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [38][40]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [42]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience and many awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on aluminum and silicon research and has made contributions to risk management for listed companies [47]. - Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on lithium and nickel research and the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [47].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 点评 19 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 32720 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.55%，持 仓减仓 2822 手至 27613 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 1780 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7490 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.47%，持仓减仓 7406 手至 31 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 125 元/吨。随着硅煤电极等成本重心下调，西南电价优惠落地， 复产陆续推进，工业硅结束超跌修复、重归下行节奏。多晶硅增减产并 行，大部分厂家大规模减产，仍有西南少量厂家有增产计划。拉晶端即用 即采且倾向于低品混包硅料，压价态度坚决。晶硅库存周转延至 1 个半 月，降库重压下持续降价态势难以避免，现货升水稳步收敛。因企业大量 交仓盘面多头挤仓逻辑结束，反弹动力不再，延续弱势震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.32%至 9619.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.27%至 | | | | 78280 元/吨；国内现货进口仍维系较大亏损。宏观方面，美联储在 6 月议息会议上维 | | | | 持利率不变后，特朗普再度喊话美联储要求其降息。关税谈判方面，欧盟正寻求与美 | | | | 国达成英国式贸易协议。中东局势仍是短期焦点，美方有意介入伊以冲突，特朗普已 | | | | 批准攻击计划但暂缓执行，各方也在呼吁伊以停止冲突，局势已在逐步升温。库存方 | | | 铜 | 面，LME 库存下降 4025 吨至 103325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1400 吨至 18.14 万吨； | | | | SMM 周四统计全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨，较上周四上 | | | | 升 0.11 万吨。需求方面，淡季来临下，下游消费转弱。伊以冲突升温后铜价表现不 | | | | 佳，佐证投资者相比供给，更 ...

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On June 19th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.79% to close at 3362.11 points, with a trading volume of 473.259 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21% to 10051.97 points, trading 777.365 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.42%, with a trading volume of 270.827 billion yuan, opening at 6127.94 and closing at 6048.22 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by 1.2%, trading 162.658 billion yuan, opening at 5733.81 and closing at 5676.83 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.54%, with a trading volume of 64.021 billion yuan, opening at 2678.36 and closing at 2665.52 [1]. 2. Sector Impact on Index - The CSI 1000 dropped 87.17 points, with the Computer and Pharmaceutical Biology sectors significantly dragging it down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 69.04 points, affected by the Computer, Pharmaceutical Biology, and Non - Banking Finance sectors [2]. - The SSE 300 declined 31.88 points, pulled down by the Power Equipment and Non - Banking Finance sectors [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 14.4 points, influenced by the Non - Banking Finance and Non - Ferrous Metals sectors [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 7.72, IM01 of - 95.26, IM02 of - 258.62, and IM03 of - 437.34 [11]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 6.6, IC01 of - 72.5, IC02 of - 184.11, and IC03 of - 308.25 [11]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 5.07, IF01 of - 47.41, IF02 of - 77.64, and IF03 of - 107.61 [11]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 6.22, IH01 of - 43.57, IH02 of - 45.65, and IH03 of - 47.67 [11]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs were presented, such as IM00 - 01 having different values at different times [21]. - For IC contracts, similar roll - over point differences and annualized costs were provided, like IC00 - 01 with values changing over time [23]. - For IF contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs were detailed, e.g., IF00 - 01 at different time points [23]. - For IH contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs were given, such as IH00 - 01 at various times [25]. Core View The report presents the performance of major stock indices on June 19th, including their price changes, trading volumes, and the impact of different sectors on these indices. It also provides data on the basis and roll - over costs of various stock index futures contracts, offering a comprehensive view of the market situation on that day.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation, with low real - time demand in the off - season, but low production and continued inventory decline [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend, with a decrease in global shipments and an increase in demand and inventory changes [1]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with some coal mines suspending production, cautious procurement by downstream enterprises, and a decline in market sentiment [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with low production enthusiasm of coke enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The ferromanganese - silicon market is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, with no strong fundamental drivers and weak cost support [1][3]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited supply - demand drivers and stable raw material prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2986 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices and low transactions. This week, the national rebar production increased by 4.61 tons week - on - week to 212.18 tons, and inventories continued to decline. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 rose to 698 yuan/ton, with an increase in port spot prices. Global shipments decreased, while demand and some inventories increased. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 790.5 yuan/ton. Some coal mines suspended production, downstream procurement was cautious, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1374 yuan/ton, with a decline in spot prices. Coke enterprises had low production enthusiasm and weak downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The ferromanganese - silicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract at 5584 yuan/ton. The steel tender price was 5650 yuan/ton, with some new production and production cuts. It is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract at 5310 yuan/ton. Production increased week - on - week, demand was weak, and raw material prices were stable. It is expected to fluctuate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon were provided, along with their week - on - week changes [4]. - Profit data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, as well as cross - variety spreads like coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., were presented, along with their week - on - week changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][29][31][33][35][36][39]. - **3.3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of main contracts such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [41][43][45]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profit**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Introduced members of the black research team including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [52][53].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因六月节放假休市，CF509 下跌 0.15%，报收 13525 元/吨，主力合 | 震荡 | | | 约持仓环比下降 7510 手至 52.59 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14775 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 19 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14891 元/吨，较前一日上涨 34 | | | | 元/吨。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价整体维持震荡走势。基本面来看，当前国内 | | | | 陈棉库存处于近年来同期偏低水平，但短期也无库存短缺担忧，新棉丰产预期较 | | | | 强。下游需求表现相对偏弱，纺织企业开机负荷环比小幅下降，库存水平在持续累 | | | | 积，基本面驱动有限。综合来看，预计短期郑棉仍区间震荡运行为主，关注宏观与 | | | | 下游需求变化。 | | | 白糖 | 消息方面，印度乙醇汽油混合（EBP）计划中取得重大进展，2025 年 5 月的醇汽油 | 弱势震 | | | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米加权合约增仓上行，7 月合约主力资金向 9 月转移，9 月成为主力合 | | | | 约，期价围绕 2400 元关口波动，盘中价格突破上行。现货市场方面，小麦提价 | | | | 对玉米形成支撑。东北玉米价格表现较为坚挺，贸易商挺价较为明显，市场购销 | | | | 虽不活跃，但库存相对较少，并不影响贸易商的报价心态。华北地区玉米价格整 | | | | 体稳中偏强运行，但上涨幅度有限。山东深加工到货量维持低位，企业根据自身 | | | 玉米 | 情况窄幅调整，部分企业上调，只有个别企业价格窄幅下调，主流价格维持稳定。 | 上涨 | | | 河南深加工价格窄幅上调 10-20 元/吨。河北地区价格基本维持稳定。销区市场 | | | | 玉米价格整体稳定运行。近期市场关注进口玉米拍卖消息较多，涨价心态发生转 | | | | 变，市场高价成交一般，港口贸易商报价暂时稳定。技术上，玉米加权合约减仓 | | | | 调整结束后，周三开始持仓恢复增加。9 月合约关注主力多 ...