光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货金融期货日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 自 6 月以来，国内资产表现为股债双强，上周前几个交易日，A 股仍延续此 | 震荡 | | | 前一周走势，表现偏强，市场情绪升温，指数期权隐含波动率底部企稳， | | | | 1000IV 收于 21.98%，300IV 收于 16.5%；融资余额自 6 月以来连续 2 周回升 | | | | 196 亿元，上周增加 94 亿元。在上周后半段，受到海外局部冲突影响，全球 | | | | 权益市场大幅回调，黄金冲高，A 股也受到影响。但总体来看，A 股预期层 | | | | 面仍在不断改善，海外方面，中美谈判加速，未来将逐步进入细节落地期； | | | | 国内方面，长效促销费政策开始受到市场讨论，下半年财政发力方向值得关 | | | | 注。 | | | 国债 | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约涨 0.05%，10 年期主力合约涨 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 点评 12 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 33585 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.39%，持 仓增仓 1499 手至 61698 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 36000 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36000 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2415 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7455 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.27%，持仓减仓 25532 手至 12.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 120 元/吨。西南丰水电价全面下调，叠加硅煤和电极不断下移， 工业硅成本重心持续回调，硅厂丰水季开工水平压产到极限，需求端变量 不多，工业硅超跌修复结束，回归弱势震荡。新一轮签单落地，量级有限 且现货交易角度引导低品相对高品更抗跌。多晶硅需求坍塌压力下，边际 累库压力加剧，多晶硅延续回调。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.18% on Thursday, closing at 67.53 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.26% to 13,520 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 4,767 lots to 541,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang rose to 14,702 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B grade rose to 14,784 yuan per ton. In the international market, the focus is on the macro - level. With U.S. inflation data lower than expected and the U.S. dollar index moving down, U.S. cotton has no obvious support. The U.S. cotton planting progress and budding rate are slightly slower than usual, with the good - quality rate flat and the poor - seedling rate slightly down. In the domestic market, the increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has slowed down. The downstream yarn comprehensive operating load has slightly increased, and demand has improved slightly, but the inventory of textile enterprises is accumulating. The raw material inventory of fabric mills is at a low level, and there may be restocking actions. Overall, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the upward movement of cotton prices requires macro - resonance. The short - term upward space of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices may be limited. The view on cotton is "oscillation" [1]. - **Sugar**: The agricultural ministry expects a slight increase in next season's sugar production. Precipitation in Guangxi since May has alleviated the drought, and rainfall in Yunnan is above normal, which is beneficial for sugarcane growth. In Inner Mongolia, sugar beet sowing was delayed by low temperatures but has recovered. In Xinjiang, sugar beet growth is generally good. The spot price of sugar has been adjusted down. The production increase expectation is still pressuring sugar prices, and the futures price has reached a new low. In the domestic market, the spot price was lowered by 20 yuan per ton, and the group continues the strategy of selling at a reasonable price. With the decline of imported sugar prices and the appearance of import profits, it continues to pressure the market. The terminal continues the strategy of purchasing as needed. The view on sugar is "oscillation - biased weak", and previous short positions can be held, but it is not advisable to chase low prices [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 contract spread is - 230, unchanged from the previous day. The main - contract basis is 1,332, an increase of 88. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,792 yuan per ton, up 90 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,852 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 contract spread is 122, an increase of 11. The main - contract basis is 443, an increase of 1. The Nanning spot price is 6,035 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,090 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 25 to 10,769, with 364 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are: 14,792 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,914 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,852 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,081 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 54.5, up 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.6, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.5, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.6, up 0.2 [3]. - **Sugar**: On June 12, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6,035 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 6,090 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 29,116, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing prices, contract spreads, basis, warehouse receipts, and price indices of cotton and sugar futures over different time periods from 2021 - 2025. The data sources are Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][12][14][16]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The director of the resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, specializing in the sugar industry. She has participated in many important projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the China Futures Association, and has won many analyst awards [19]. - **Zhang Linglu**: A resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has participated in many large - scale projects and won many awards [20]. - **Sun Chengzhen**: A resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has participated in relevant Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange projects and won the title of senior analyst in textile products [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. It is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a volatile trend [1]. - The coking coal market has a slightly tightened supply and weak demand. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will operate in a volatile manner [1]. - The coke market has weak terminal demand and high inventory pressure on coke enterprises. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will operate in a volatile manner [1]. - The manganese silicon market has a relatively loose supply - demand structure and weak cost support. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon price will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. - The silicon iron market has limited overall driving forces, but the supply is gradually decreasing. It is expected that the short - term silicon iron price will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - Rebar futures prices fell yesterday. The spot price also declined, and the trading volume decreased. The production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar all decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract fell yesterday. The port spot price also declined. The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the iron ore inventory increased. It is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price fell yesterday. The spot market is weak, with some coal mines shutting down and downstream procurement being cautious. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. Coke - The coke futures price fell yesterday. The spot price is stable. Due to strict environmental inspections, the overall operating rate has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price weakened yesterday. The mainstream steel procurement has new progress. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures price weakened yesterday. The mainstream steel procurement has new progress. The supply is decreasing slightly, the demand is weak, and the cost is relatively stable. It is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron, as well as profit and spread data between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts, such as the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the spread of inter - period contracts, the spread of inter - variety contracts, and the profit of rebar, to show the historical price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][7][17][25][38][43]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [49][50].

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格延续弱势状态，主力09合约收盘价1646元/吨，跌幅1.67%。现货 | 偏弱 | | | 市场继续下调，主流地区市场价格昨日继续下降10~20元/吨，部分厂家低端出场价 | | | | 格已逐步向1600元/吨靠近。本周尿素企业库存增幅高达13.69%，尿素厂家仍有出 | | | | 货压力。供应来看，近期尿素日产水平 现增量 势，昨日20.74万吨，日环比增0. | | | | 11万吨。需求端跟进力度依旧不足，部分低端价格成交略有好转，昨日国内主流地 | | | | 区平均产销率小幅提升至38%，区域间产销率仍维持7%-67%区间波动。目前国内麦 | | | | 收进度超70%，麦收后尿素农需及出口需求仍有跟进预期，但尿素价格目前未见到 | | | | 反转动能。整体来看，尿素供需层面驱动不足，产业心态持续走弱，期现负反馈状 | | | | 态短期或继续维持。后期关注需求释放力度、出口相关政策动态等逻辑能否给盘面 | | | | 带来止跌企稳迹象。 | | | 纯碱 | 周四纯碱期货价格 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约跌 1.56%至 60440 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/ 吨至 60650 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/吨至 59050 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 350 元/吨至 60550 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 350 元/吨至 65700 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存减少 454 吨至 32383 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格有止跌迹象。供应端，周度产量环比增加 656 吨至 18127 吨，增量主要是锂辉 石提锂，锂云母提锂次之，6 月产量供应环比增速明显。需求端，据各家初步排产数据来看增量不 显。库存端，周度库存重回增加，周度环比增加 1117 吨至 133549 吨。综合来看，需要考虑的是， 一方面，当前矿山端并未有新的停减产动作，同时，从国内排产来看，6 月过剩格局将进一步扩大； 另一方面，锂矿的价格表现相对滞后，如果锂盐价格快速走强，生产和套保动 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 镍 格暂时表现坚挺，国内镍铁成交价格有小幅反弹迹象，但大厂招标价格维持 940 元/镍 点。不锈钢方面来看，原料价格持稳，供应端国内及印尼方面均有减产，但全国主流市 场不锈钢 89 仓库口径社会总库存 114.55 万吨，周环比上升 2.07%，需求疲软压制，供 应调节供需平衡仍需时间。新能源方面，品种价格表现平稳，6 月需求排产难有大量新 增。一级镍方面，6 月供应环比延续下降，国内周度库存去化。综合来看，原料成本坚 挺为托底，一级镍去库，但向上受到下游需求制约，整体仍篇震荡运行，关注镍矿升水 和一级镍库存表现。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 仓减仓 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 3259 元/吨。铝锭现货升 | | 721 至 10141 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水扩至 元/吨，对无锡 200 | 90 | 元/吨。佛山 | ...

光期研究 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 650.5 | 653.0 | -2.5 | I05-I09 | -53.5 | -54.0 | 0.5 | | I09 | 704.0 | 707.0 | -3.0 | I09-I01 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 | | I01 | 671.0 | 674.0 | -3.0 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 21.0 | -0.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 ...

Research Views Corn - Corn futures showed a short - term adjustment after a rapid rise. The spot price in the Northeast was rising, and the auction price provided support. In North China, the price remained strong, with Shandong's purchase price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price in the sales area rose 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The near - month contract led the rise, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts widened. The 9 - month contract's performance should be watched, and short - term long positions can be considered [1]. Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were weak on Thursday due to rainfall in the US产区 and limited highlights in the USDA June supply - demand report. Domestic protein meal declined following the external market. There are differences between long and short positions. The long - term logic is based on profit repair and supply uncertainty in the fourth quarter, while the short - term logic is related to improved US weather, weak domestic spot, and good Sino - US relations. Hold long positions in the 91 and 15 spreads of soybean meal and adopt a long - only strategy [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil rose and then fell, affected by supply pressure and inventory increase. High - frequency data showed an increase in exports and a decrease in production in early June. The domestic oil market was weak, with soybean oil falling more than palm oil. Both are in the inventory - building stage, and the price center has shifted down. Short - term participation is recommended, and buy the 9 - month contract and sell the 1 - month contract for soybean oil and palm oil [1]. Eggs - Egg futures declined on Thursday, with the 2508 contract down 0.74% and the 2509 contract down 0.38%. The spot price decreased slightly. The supply will continue to increase before August. Although the plum - rain season has a negative impact on egg prices, the downside is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in farmers' culling intentions and feed prices [1][2]. Pigs - The September contract of live pigs led the rise, and the near - month contracts followed. The spot price was weak, with the average price in Henan at 14.00 yuan/kg. The market is in a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to adjust slightly. Technically, the September contract has rebounded, supported by raw material costs and policies. A long - only strategy is recommended [2]. Market Information - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed and implemented the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and the Geneva talks, making new progress in addressing each other's concerns. China opposes unilateral tariff increases [3]. - The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution stating that Iran failed to comply with its nuclear safeguards obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years [3]. - Trump is preparing to sign a key part of the US - UK trade agreement, which will reduce tariffs on UK cars exported to the US in exchange for US beef and ethanol producers' access to the UK market. UK officials hope to sign the agreement this weekend [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is provided [4][5][7][8][11]. Contract Basis - The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [12][13][17][19][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a leader of the top ten research teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times [28]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title and her team has won many awards [28]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Her team has won awards at DCE [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Wind All A index rising 0.13% and a trading volume of 1.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.09%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.12%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes fell 0.03% and 0.06% respectively. The market volatility declined after sharp fluctuations at the beginning of the week, with the non-ferrous and TMT sectors performing strongly and the home appliance, coal, and food and beverage sectors weakening. Since June, Chinese assets have shown strong performance, with both stocks and bonds rising, pricing in potential policy changes in June. The market expects positive progress in Sino-US communication, changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and further capital market reform measures at the Lujiazui Forum in mid-to-late June. The PPI data indicates that China's economic inflation remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may shift to a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with consumption and technology likely to dominate the market style. In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow for three consecutive quarters but remained below the policy rate, while the net profit increased by about 4% year-on-year, and the ROE was still in the bottoming-out and stabilizing stage [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30-year main contract rose 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rose 0.4bp to 1.37%, and that of DR007 rose 1bp to 1.54%. In June, the bond market's focus returned to changes in the capital market. Due to the large maturity pressure of interbank certificates of deposit and the continued increase in government bond issuance, concerns about a temporary tightening of the capital market in June increased. However, the central bank's early announcement of a 50 billion yuan net injection of 3-month outright reverse repurchase operations significantly alleviated market concerns, and the bond market showed a slight bullish steepening trend. In the short term, the expectation of capital market tightness has weakened, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed mixed performance, with different indexes having different trends. The market volatility declined, and certain sectors performed strongly while others weakened. Since June, Chinese assets have performed well, pricing in potential policy changes. The economic inflation remains low, and the market style may be dominated by consumption and technology. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow, but the net profit increased, and the ROE was in the bottoming-out stage [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities of treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank market interest rates rose. In June, the bond market focused on capital market changes, and concerns about tightening increased initially but were alleviated later. In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract fell 0.01%, the IF contract rose 0.12%, the IC contract rose 0.33%, and the IM contract rose 0.21%. Among the stock indexes, the SSE 50 fell 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell 0.06%, the CSI 500 rose 0.12%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.09% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract fell 0.01%, the TF contract fell 0.06%, the T contract fell 0.05%, and the TL contract rose 0.04% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed and reached consensus on implementing the leaders' phone call on June 5 and the Geneva talks framework, making new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. China opposes unilateral tariff increases and urges the US to abide by WTO rules and jointly promote the stable and sustainable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical basis trends of each contract [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical yields of treasury bonds, the historical basis trends of different maturities of treasury bond futures, the historical inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the historical trends of capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the historical trends of the US dollar against the RMB central parity rate, the euro against the RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates of different tenors, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [21][22][25][26].