Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on June 12, 2025, including index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and points differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs. 3. Summary by Sections Index Trends - On June 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3402.66 points with a trading volume of 5016.25 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10234.33 points with a trading volume of 7701.44 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.09% with a trading volume of 2508.24 billion yuan, opening at 6171.56, closing at 6192.22, with a high of 6202.73 and a low of 6151.04 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.12% with a trading volume of 1653.94 billion yuan, opening at 5780.97, closing at 5799.93, with a high of 5808.8 and a low of 5766.52 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.03% with a trading volume of 700.97 billion yuan, opening at 2689.68, closing at 2691.28, with a high of 2696.78 and a low of 2674.31 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index fell 0.06% with a trading volume of 2602.4 billion yuan, opening at 3885.52, closing at 3892.2, with a high of 3900.04 and a low of 3870.38 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 5.71 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, non - ferrous metals, and media had a positive impact, while machinery, defense, and electronics had a negative impact [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 6.98 points compared to the previous close. Pharmaceuticals, media, and automobiles had a positive impact, while computer, defense, and electronics had a negative impact [3]. - The SSE 300 fell 2.43 points compared to the previous close. Non - ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and banks had a positive impact, while coal, automobiles, and food and beverage had a negative impact [3]. - The SSE 50 fell 0.86 points compared to the previous close. Non - ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had a positive impact, while coal, communication, and food and beverage had a negative impact [3]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 36.81, IM01 of - 133.6, IM02 of - 299.01, and IM03 of - 475.67 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 24.33, IC01 of - 101.69, IC02 of - 211.25, and IC03 of - 337.24 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 12.04, IF01 of - 54.27, IF02 of - 81.3, and IF03 of - 110.93 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 10.7, IH01 of - 44.84, IH02 of - 49.74, and IH03 of - 50.17 [13]. Points Differences in Contract Roll - over and Their Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on points differences and annualized costs for various contract roll - over combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02) at different times (09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided [22]. - Similar data for IC, IF, and IH contracts are also presented, showing points differences and annualized costs for different contract roll - over scenarios at multiple time points [25][27]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

Research Views Corn - The corn main contract increased in price with reduced positions on Wednesday. The July contract encountered resistance at the previous high. Spot prices in the Northeast continued to rise by 20 - 40 yuan/ton in the past two days. Deep - processing enterprises in the production area and North China also raised purchase prices. Shandong's deep - processing arrivals remained low, and prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hebei's prices went up by 15 - 30 yuan/ton, while Henan's were basically stable. Prices in the sales area rose widely, but high - price corn had limited transactions, and wheat substitution continued. Technically, short - position holders in the near - month contract reduced their positions, leading to a rapid increase in futures prices. The July contract might face a phased adjustment due to profit - taking [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans declined on Wednesday. Market participants focused on the favorable weather in the US. The USDA's May estimate of the US 2024/25 soybean ending stocks was 3.51 billion bushels, and for 2025/26 it was 2.98 billion bushels. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks were estimated at 1.2454 billion tons. Domestically, protein meal continued to increase with more positions. There were differences between long and short positions. The operation suggestion was to hold long spreads for soybean meal 91 and 15 contracts and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil dropped to a two - week low on Wednesday, affected by weak international oil prices and increased May - end inventory. Malaysian palm oil production in May was 177 million tons, 5% higher than expected. High - frequency data showed that exports from June 1 - 10 increased by 8.1% - 32.7% month - on - month, while production decreased by 17.24%. In Canada, canola prices rose due to dry weather, but upcoming precipitation was beneficial for crop growth. International crude oil prices increased by 4%. Domestically, oils were weak, with palm oil falling below 8000 yuan. The operation suggestion was short - term participation and buying September and selling January for soybean oil and palm oil [1][2]. Eggs - The main egg 2508 contract fluctuated at a low level on Wednesday, rising 0.06% to 3515 yuan/500 kilograms, while the 2509 contract continued to decline, falling 0.47%. Spot prices decreased. Terminal demand was weak, and supply was expected to increase before August. It was recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in culling intention and feed raw material prices [2]. Pigs - The pig 9 - month contract fluctuated and formed a doji on Wednesday. Spot prices were stable. Due to insufficient terminal demand and farmers' resistance to selling, the market was in a supply - demand game. Technically, it was recommended to focus on the 13500 - yuan support level of the 9 - month contract and maintain a short - term long mindset [2]. Market Information - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% after the release of good CPI data [3]. - China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the leaders' phone call and Geneva talks [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 10, 2025 decreased by 17.24% [3]. - EU and UK's 2025/26 rapeseed production was estimated to remain at 20.4 million tons, but there was a drought risk in Poland [3]. - Indonesia was expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovery and stable international demand [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - Included spreads of contracts like corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific spread data was provided [5][6][8] Contract Basis - Included basis of contracts such as corn, corn starch, etc., but no specific basis data was provided [13][14][18]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.01%，报收 67.7 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.33%，报收 13540 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 7234 手至 54.58 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14702 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 58 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14784 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 41 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期美棉整体驱动有限，市场关注点更多在于 | | | | 宏观层面，美国 CPI 数据公布，略低于预期，美元指数震荡走弱。美棉种植进度及 | | | | 现蕾率均略慢于往年同期，优良率环比持平，差苗率环比微降，估产方面影响不 | | | | 大，预计短期 ICE 美棉仍震荡运行为主。国内市场方面，据人民日报，中美原则 | | | | 上达成协议框架，关注后续细节公布。基本面来看，近期下游纱线端综合开机负荷 | | | | 小幅回升，需求好转对棉价有一 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜下跌 0.8%至 9647 美元/吨；SHFE 0.77%至 78570 | | 铜主力下跌 | 元/吨；国内 | | | | 现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月 CPI 同比上涨 | | 表现超预期降温，CPI | 2.4%， | | | | 略低于预期的 2.5%，但高于前值 2.3%；核心 CPI 2.8%，低于预期 数据显示，美国消费者尚未感受到关税政策带来的价格上涨压力，这也减轻了美联储 | | 同比持平于 | 2.9%。 | | | | 下半年降息的压力，数据公布后市场再度聚焦美联储政策的判断，CME 利率观察工 具显示，市场对月降息的可能性一度升至 60%附近。库存方面，LME 铜下降 950 | | | | 吨至 | | 铜 | 119450 吨；Comex 铜增加 1044 吨至 174259 铜仓单下降 373 吨至 33373 | | 吨；SHFE | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 11, 2025, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.68% to 61,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 58,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 60,900 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 66,050 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 110 tons to 32,837 tons [3]. - Lithium ore prices show signs of stopping decline. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June is significant. On the demand side, the preliminary production schedules of various companies show little increase. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Considering that currently, there are no new production cuts at the mine end, and from the domestic production schedule, the oversupply situation will expand further in June. Also, the price performance of lithium ore is relatively lagging. If the price of lithium salt strengthens rapidly, the motivation for production and hedging will reappear, putting further pressure on prices. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - Market rumors led to a rebound in futures prices. The current price is basically at the bottom of the stage, with intensified long-short games. Prices may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 61,680 yuan/ton, up 920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 630 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5%-2.0%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0%-2.5%) was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the prices of lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 6%-7%) and lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 7%-8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery-grade/domestic) was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero-grade/domestic) was 58,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 66,050 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 54,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 8.2 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan to 400 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased by 280 yuan to -2,011.7 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased slightly, while the prices of some remained unchanged. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 40 yuan to 30,445 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) increased by 30 yuan to 28,950 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 40 yuan to 26,650 yuan/ton [5]. - Batteries: The prices of most battery products remained unchanged, while the price of cobalt - acid lithium battery cells decreased by 0.02 yuan/Ah to 5.53 yuan/Ah [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%), lithium mica (2.0%-2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate (6%-7%, 7%-8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: Charts show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][28]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 2024 to June 2025 [36][37][38]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿,外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]

| 市呈现小幅牛陡走势。短期来看，资金面紧张预期走弱，债市有望偏强震荡。 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 自 | 点评 6 月以来，中国资产表现偏强，股债齐升，计价 6 月可能存在的政策变化。 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 其一，中美沟通进度超市场预期。6 月 9 日，中美将在伦敦开展新一轮贸易 | | | | 谈判，具体内容可能超过市场预期；其二，长效消费刺激政策受到市场关注， | | | | 消费促进政策思路可能出现变化；其三，6 月中下旬陆家尊论坛可能包含深 | | | | 化资本市场改革的进一步举措。近期公布的 PPI 数据显示，我国经济通胀水 | | | | 平仍处于低位，二季度基本面可能转化为"弱现实、强预期"，市场风格中消 | | | | 费和科技可能仍然占优。财报方面，一季度，A 股上市公司全市场营收增速 | | | | 跌幅连续 3 个季度收窄，但仍低于政策利率，净利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including "volatile and bullish" and "volatile" for various energy and chemical products [1][2][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East are the main reason for the rapid rise in oil prices. The short - term trend of Brent crude oil is expected to be volatile and bullish after breaking through the $70 integer mark [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the tight supply in June and the cost - side rebound, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be volatile and bullish. Considering the summer demand peak, a long - spread strategy can be considered when the spread is low [2] - **Asphalt**: Although there is short - term bottom support for asphalt prices due to low supply in North China and expected supply reduction in Shandong, the upward space is limited due to increased rainfall in the South. The overall trend is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium term [2] - **Polyester**: PX follows the cost trend and is in a de - stocking pattern. TA is under price pressure due to weak fundamentals, and EG shows a volatile trend with weak demand support [4] - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support from raw material prices, the high inventory of downstream tires limits the rebound space of rubber prices [4] - **Methanol**: Despite the increase in port and inland inventories, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive methanol prices up [6] - **Polyolefins**: With the fading of tariff impacts and the arrival of the off - season, the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. The sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to push polyolefin prices up [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Although the fundamentals are under pressure as the downstream enters the off - season, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive PVC prices to rebound [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI July contract rose $3.17 to $68.15/barrel, a 4.88% increase; Brent August contract rose $2.90 to $69.77/barrel, a 4.34% increase; SC2507 closed at 497.4 yuan/barrel, up 16.2 yuan/barrel, a 3.37% increase. Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories are the main factors driving the price increase [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2507 fell 0.74% to 2939 yuan/ton, and LU2508 rose 0.17% to 3563 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market is relatively stable [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2509 fell 1.06% to 3461 yuan/ton. The total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The supply in North China is low, and there is an expected reduction in Shandong [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 0.17% to 4620 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 0.37% to 4285 yuan/ton, and PX futures rose 0.4% to 6528 yuan/ton. TA's fundamentals are weak, and EG's inventory is increasing [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2509 rose 85 yuan/ton to 13890 yuan/ton, NR rose 60 yuan/ton to 12215 yuan/ton, and BR fell 5 yuan/ton to 11225 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen slightly, but downstream demand is weak [4] - **Methanol**: The MTO device operating rate remains high, and port and inland inventories are increasing. The price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyolefins**: The profit margins of different production methods vary. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but the price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The domestic real estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season. The price is expected to rebound due to the increase in crude oil prices [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and basis rate quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - China and the US held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London, reaching a consensus on some economic and trade issues [11] - The US EIA reported a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories last week, with an increase in refinery utilization rate [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents price trend charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows basis trend charts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, including the basis between different benchmarks and the basis of main contracts [29][30][31] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides spread trend charts for different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and ethylene glycol [43][44][45] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It shows spread trend charts between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, and the spread between fuel oil and asphalt [59][60][61] 4.5 Production Profits - The report presents production profit trend charts for products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose slightly yesterday. Spot prices also increased, with trading volume picking up. However, construction steel production continued to decline, inventory reduction slowed, and apparent demand continued to fall, showing signs of a seasonal slow - down in market demand. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism reached a principle agreement on the measure framework, which boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures price will remain in a low - level consolidation [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore futures rose yesterday. Port spot prices also increased. On the supply side, Australian shipments increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly, resulting in an overall increase in global iron ore shipments. On the demand side, the blast furnace operating rate increased, but molten iron output continued to decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports and steel mills continued to decline. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, the iron ore futures price is expected to show a volatile trend [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell yesterday. On the supply side, some mines in the production areas stopped production, and overall supply tightened slightly. In the face of the market's downward trend, downstream procurement was cautious, and most enterprises were still waiting and watching. On the demand side, after the third round of coke price cuts, coke enterprises' profits were squeezed, and the price of raw coal continued to fall, lacking cost support. The market sentiment was mostly pessimistic, and the procurement of raw coal was relatively cautious. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures price will fluctuate [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose yesterday, while the spot price at the port remained stable. On the supply side, environmental protection inspection teams entered multiple northern provinces, and coking enterprises implemented certain production reduction measures. The price of coking coal, the raw material, continued to fall, and the overall operating load remained relatively high. On the demand side, during the traditional off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills is expected to decline further, and the rigid demand for coke is under continuous pressure. Steel mills maintain low - inventory operations and are cautious in purchasing raw materials. It is expected that the short - term coke futures price will fluctuate [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: On Wednesday, the silicon manganese futures price weakened in a volatile manner. The main factor affecting the price recently is the weakening cost support. Overseas miners' quotations for manganese ore in July decreased month - on - month, and the port manganese ore inventory continued to rise, with the price center of gravity moving down slightly. In terms of supply and demand, although the current weekly output of silicon manganese is still at a relatively low level in recent years, it has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. The steel procurement is ongoing. Overall, there is insufficient upward momentum for the silicon manganese price in the near term, but with the price at an absolute low and no significant new negative factors, it is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1] - **Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the silicon iron futures price rose slightly. Recently, the number of silicon iron production enterprises reducing or suspending production has increased, which has supported the price to some extent. The steel procurement is still ongoing, but the support and driving force are relatively limited. The inventory of 60 silicon iron sample enterprises across the country decreased week - on - week but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Overall, the driving force is limited, and it is expected that the silicon iron price will fluctuate in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2991 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 0.1 million hands. The spot price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan rose 20 yuan/ton to 2920 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhongtian rebar in the Hangzhou market rose 30 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton. The national construction steel trading volume was 104,600 tons. This week, the national construction steel production decreased by 81,600 tons to 4.1377 million tons, social inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 5.5224 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 129,700 tons to 3.1318 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 65,600 tons to 2.3252 million tons [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day, with trading volume of 350,000 lots and an increase in positions of 8,000 lots. The port spot prices increased, with PB powder at Rizhao Port rising 5 yuan/ton to 724 yuan/ton, Carajas fines rising 4 yuan/ton to 819 yuan/ton, and Super Special fines rising 4 yuan/ton to 619 yuan/ton [1] - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 783.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 10,814 lots. The ex - factory price of main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 27 yuan to 1073 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market fluctuated, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising 7 yuan to 718 yuan/ton and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal falling 4 yuan to 810 yuan/ton, and market trading was light [1] - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 1227 lots. The spot price of coke at the port was stable, with the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port remaining at 1180 yuan/ton [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: On Wednesday, the silicon manganese futures price closed at 5486 yuan/ton, down 1.22% month - on - month, with an increase in positions of 12,713 lots to 448,900 lots. The market price of 6517 silicon manganese was 5380 - 5540 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the silicon iron futures price closed at 5184 yuan/ton, up 0.35% month - on - month, with a decrease in positions of 1061 lots to 217,000 lots. The spot price of 72 - grade silicon iron in major production areas was about 5000 - 5100 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread, Basis, and Spot Price**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, along with their month - on - month changes [4] - **Profit and Spread**: It also presents data on the latest profits (such as rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc.) for these commodities and their month - on - month changes [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report includes line charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][11][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: There are line charts depicting the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [17][18][21][23] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Line charts are provided to show the spreads of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [25][27][28][32][33][35][37] - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report contains line charts presenting the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, coke to iron ore ratio, coking coal to coke ratio, and silicon manganese to silicon iron spread [40][42][44] - **Rebar Profit**: Line charts show the futures profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Currently the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry's spot trading, research, and consulting. He has won many industry awards [51] - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Currently the director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards in the industry [51] - **Liu Xi**: A master of science, currently a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51] - **Zhang Chunjie**: Currently a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has worked in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level II exam, and is good at thinking from the perspectives of investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 11, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,560 yuan/ton and an intraday increase of 2.23% [2]. - With the full - scale reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region and the continuous decline of silicon coal and electrodes, the cost center of industrial silicon has been continuously adjusted downwards. The operating level of silicon plants during the wet season has been reduced to the limit, and there are few variables on the demand side, so industrial silicon has stopped falling in the short term. Polysilicon has continued to reduce its load comprehensively, and there is still a possibility of expanding the production - restriction quota through industry self - discipline in the future. A new round of order signing has been completed, but the volume is limited, and from the perspective of spot trading, low - grade products are more resistant to price drops than high - grade products. Polysilicon remains weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, up 0.72% intraday, with a position reduction of 2,509 lots to 60,199 lots. The SMM N - type polysilicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest - delivery N - type polysilicon material remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,245 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 7,560 yuan/ton, up 2.23% intraday, with a position reduction of 8,591 lots to 147,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,750 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The price of the lowest - delivery 553 grade dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 7,395 yuan/ton on June 10 to 7,475 yuan/ton on June 11, up 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract also increased by 80 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable. The spot premium narrowed from 205 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 578 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 13,400 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 33,955 yuan/ton on June 10 to 34,255 yuan/ton on June 11, up 300 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,545 yuan/ton to 2,245 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 120 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 100 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][15][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and total social inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [19][23][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][26][28]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [35].