1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.61% to $9,707.5/ton, SHFE copper up 0.58% to 78,570 yuan/ton. US trade deficit in April narrowed 55.5%, but jobless claims rose. LME copper stocks fell, Comex increased, and SHFE declined. Demand slowed due to the off - season. Sino - US trade conflict eased, and LME de - stocking supported prices. Copper prices face a directional choice, with resistance at 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, AO2509 down 1.17% to 2,953 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum was strong, AL2507 up 0.1% to 20,075 yuan/ton. Spot alumina prices fell, and upstream costs eased. Alumina production resumed, and the supply shortage improved. Aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the US tariff hike provided short - term support [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.75% to $15,445/ton, Shanghai nickel up 0.28% to 122,060 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE stocks decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel demand was weak, and new - energy demand was also sluggish. The market was in a short - term oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On June 5, 2025, the price of flat - water copper dropped 85 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 55 yuan/ton. LME stocks fell 3,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 246 tons, and social inventory increased 1.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead rose 70 yuan/ton, and LME stocks increased 1,100 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 1,928 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On June 5, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes declined. LME stocks fell 2,025 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 16,856 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On June 5, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel dropped 375 yuan/ton. LME stocks decreased 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell 48 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price dropped 0.2%, LME stocks increased 875 tons, and social inventory decreased 0.09 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose 1.5%, LME stocks decreased 160 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased 338 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, Senior Precious Metals Researcher, Intermediate Gold Investment Analyst, Excellent Metal Analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Best Industrial Futures Analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With over a decade of commodity research experience, he has published many articles and been interviewed by multiple media. His team won industry awards [50]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance with most indices closing higher. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. The internal policy drive is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. Various policy measures are expected to help companies repair their balance sheets, promote stable economic development, and gradually increase stock market valuations. The overall view is that the stock index will be in a volatile state [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures showed different trends, with some contracts rising and others falling. The central bank's operations affected the bond market, and after macro - disturbances, the bond market followed changes in the capital market and economic fundamentals. The bond market is expected to remain in a sideways volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On June 5, 2025, most A-share market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A index rose 0.42% with a trading volume of 1.32 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.72%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%. The TMT sector recovered while the consumer sector declined. April economic data showed a slight decline compared to March but remained resilient. Social retail sales increased by 5.1% year - on - year, supported by the "trade - in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with a cumulative new RMB loan of 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 growth of 8% year - on - year. The Sino - US joint statement and domestic policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On June 5, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.16%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04%. The central bank conducted 1265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1395 billion yuan. The capital market was generally loose. The central bank's upcoming 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation led to a slight decline in Treasury bond yields. After adjustments, the bond market is in a sideways volatile pattern [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 5, 2025, compared with June 4, IH rose 0.01%, IF rose 0.25%, IC rose 0.61%, and IM rose 0.79% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.05%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.23%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.54%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.72% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.03%, TF remained unchanged, T fell 0.04%, and TL remained unchanged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 1.45bp, - 0.46bp, 0.59bp, and 0.7bp respectively [3]. 3.3 Market News - The central bank announced that on June 6, 2025, it will conduct a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term using a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning method [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the corresponding basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts display the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [21][22][25].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. Internationally, the macro - level is the main influencing factor. After the release of the US ADP employment data, which was significantly lower than expected, concerns about the US economy are rising, the US dollar index is oscillating weakly, and the price of US cotton has declined. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton has been in a range - bound trend, lacking directional drivers. In the future, macro and weather may be variables. Without new disturbances in the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The sugar market is also expected to oscillate. Future production expectations still suppress the performance of sugar prices, and the raw sugar price remains at a low level. The sugar sales data in Guangxi basically met expectations, with the spot sales progressing well, firm quotes, and a strong basis providing some support for futures prices. In the short term, the price is expected to hover around the current level. Attention should be paid to the national sugar sales data and import data in the medium term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE US cotton dropped 1.51% to 65.05 cents per pound. CF509 closed flat at 13,265 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 13,757 lots to 525,400 lots. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 14,431 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14 yuan per ton from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,544 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton from the previous day [2]. - **Sugar**: As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 0.5371 million tons year - on - year. The sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 510,000 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons year - on - year. The monthly industrial inventory was 1.8197 million tons, a decrease of 253,500 tons year - on - year. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups were 6,090 - 6,180 yuan per ton, and those of Yunnan sugar - making groups were 5,860 - 5,910 yuan per ton, with only Nanhua Group reducing the price by 10 yuan per ton [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was - 220, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 1,279, a decrease of 14. The arrival price of cotton in Xinjiang was 14,431 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14 yuan per ton, and the national price was 14,544 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton [3]. - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 contract spread was 125, an increase of 3. The main contract basis was 397, a decrease of 16. The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,145 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 4, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,977, a decrease of 85 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 374. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,431 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,565 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,558 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,773 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 55.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 24.9, an increase of 0.2. The comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 50.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 31.3, an increase of 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On June 4, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,090 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,145 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 30,300, a decrease of 431 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 0 [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing prices of the main contracts, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price indices, with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [7][14]. 5. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, glass, cotton, etc., respectively, and have rich industry experience and many honors [19][20][21].

1. Index Trends - On June 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to close at 3376.2 points with a trading volume of 446.845 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87% to close at 10144.58 points with a trading volume of 706.203 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.88% with a trading volume of 232.04 billion yuan, opening at 6067.83, closing at 6123.17, with a daily high of 6124.7 and a low of 6067.83 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 150.315 billion yuan, opening at 5696.57, closing at 5739.01, with a daily high of 5744.45 and a low of 5696.57 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.13% with a trading volume of 51.109 billion yuan, opening at 2688.74, closing at 2690.82, with a daily high of 2699.67 and a low of 2687.3 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.43% with a trading volume of 211.736 billion yuan, opening at 3855.49, closing at 3868.74, with a daily high of 3875.86 and a low of 3855.49 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 53.13 points from the previous close, with sectors such as power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 44.17 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, pharmaceutical and biological, and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 16.73 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, non - bank finance, and communication significantly pulling the index up, while transportation sectors pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 3.52 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical and biological pulling the index up, while sectors like banks, utilities, and transportation pulled it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 64.19, IM01 of - 156.68, IM02 of - 321.86, and IM03 of - 501.29 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 45.82, IC01 of - 115.92, IC02 of - 233.59, and IC03 of - 363.47 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 23.62, IF01 of - 61.74, IF02 of - 96.86, and IF03 of - 135.77 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 16.54, IH01 of - 46.96, IH02 of - 52.85, and IH03 of - 53.34 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the 15 - minute average roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH are provided, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc. [22][24][25][27]

碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 碳酸锂日报 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 2.55%至 61080 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 50 元/ 吨至 60250 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 50 元/吨至 58650 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 400 元/吨至 62420 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 400 元/吨至 67565 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库增加 64 吨至 33461 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格延续下跌。供应端，周度产量环比增加 487 吨至 16580 吨，需要注意的是部分 企业此前经过检修拟在 6 月复产，6 月预计产量仍环比有增加。需求端，正极排产数据来看表现一 般，但正极库存连续消化，特别是磷酸铁锂库存周转天数已经明显下降，电芯端延续放缓，但终端 销售仍然亮眼，渗透率维持高位。库存端，周度库存环比下降 208 吨至 131571 吨，下游库存小幅增 加，上游和中间环节减少。 3. 整体来看基本面没有发生实质好转，当前价格水平之下需要注意博弈加剧。 碳酸锂日报 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation phase. The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar have not changed significantly, and the market still anticipates a weakening of supply - demand in the future [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend. Although the futures price has risen, the supply has increased, and the iron - making output has declined, resulting in a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to fluctuate. For coking coal, there are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, while the demand side has a downward expectation; for coke, steel mills continue to propose price cuts, but there may be some support on the futures price [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector. Their price increases are mainly driven by market sentiment and cost support, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rebounded, with the 2510 contract closing at 2974 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.57%. Spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. This week, the national building materials production decreased by 3.83 tons to 421.93 tons, social inventory decreased by 14.84 tons to 550.47 tons, factory inventory decreased by 3.03 tons to 326.15 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.89 tons to 439.8 tons. It is expected to be in a weak consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price of the main contract i2509 rose to 704.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 1.3%. Port spot prices increased. Australian shipments declined from the high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments rebounded from the low level. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased to 241.91 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 122.25 tons and 171.15 tons respectively. It is expected to be volatile and weak [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 768 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton or 6.82%. The spot price of some coal types decreased. There are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, and the spot trading link has cooled down. The coke market has a downward expectation, and the demand for coking coal is weak. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 1367.5 yuan/ton, up 68.5 yuan/ton or 5.27%. The spot price of port coke increased. Steel mills continued to propose a third - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, the downstream procurement enthusiasm declined, and some coking enterprises' inventory accumulated. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5502 yuan/ton, up 2.12%. The increase was driven by the overall strength of the black sector and the rise in coking coal prices, which boosted market sentiment and increased cost support. The production has begun to rebound week - on - week, and it is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5258 yuan/ton, up 1.19%. The rise was driven by the strength of the black sector and the increase in coking coal prices. The production continued to decline, but there are signs of复产 in some areas. It is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar is 4.0, a decrease of 19.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is 7.0, unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 38.5, an increase of 1.5, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 136.0, a decrease of 26.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 103.0, a decrease of 15.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore is 70.7, a decrease of 2.4, etc. [4]. - **Spot Price**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3110.0, an increase of 20.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3200.0, an increase of 30.0; the spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 732.0, an increase of 6.0, etc. [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar futures profit is 84.8, a decrease of 3.1; the long - process profit is 32.4, an increase of 9.2; the short - process profit is - 116.8, an increase of 30.0; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 123.0, a decrease of 1.0, etc. [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][29][31][33][34][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [39][40][41][43]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides profit trend charts of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [51][52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On June 4, polysilicon showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 35,055 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.44%, and the open interest decreased by 3,727 lots to 67,873 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium to the main contract narrowed to 1,445 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and upward trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 7,280 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.9%, and the open interest decreased by 19,865 lots to 180,300 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 425 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region during the wet season has led to the resumption of production, and large northwest factories will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large Xinjiang factories, and the upper pressure stems from high inventories and increased supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas [2]. - In the short term, the market has slightly recovered with the macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, a strategy of shorting on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news and be vigilant against significant volatility risks [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3 to 7,175 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of most 553 and 421 silicon products decreased, with the price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropping from 7,650 yuan/ton to 7,600 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed from 575 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 887 to 61,803, and the weekly inventories in various ports and factories also decreased [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 695 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polysilicon, dense material, and cauliflower material remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,140 yuan/ton to 1,445 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 350 to 1,920, and the weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 90,000 tons to 141,000 tons, while the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers remained stable, while the price of M10 single - crystal battery cells decreased by 0.01 yuan/watt [3]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories, inventory changes, DMC weekly inventories, and polysilicon weekly inventories [19][21][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [27][30][33].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，走势先抑后扬。截至收盘主力09合约报1774元/吨，日 | 震荡 | | | 环比收平。现货市场多数稳定，个别地区小幅波动，山东、河南地区市场价格分别 | | | | 稳定在1870元/吨、1850元/吨。近期尿素供应水平高位波动，昨日行业日产量20.47 | | | | 万吨，日环比下 0.16万吨。需求端跟进仍较为谨慎，农业产区麦收，对农资采购 | | | | 动分散。昨日主流地区尿素产销率徘徊在20%~50%区间，仅个别地区能达到产销 | | | | 平衡。另外，近期部分下游开工下滑，对尿素刚需也有所减弱。本周尿素企业库存 | | | | 提升5.59%，部分企业为缓解出货压力出现低端价格松动现象。整体来看，麦收结束 | | | | 后尿素需求及出口仍有放量预期，但尿素价格上方限制依旧明显。尿素期货价格同 | | | | 时受商品市场整体情绪波动而波动，但期价上方也仍有明显限制。预计短期尿素期 | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper was oscillating strongly, up 0.11% to $9,649/ton, while SHFE copper主力 declined 0.08% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained closed. US economic data was weak, and the probability of a June interest rate cut was low. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. Due to the off - season and high prices, downstream procurement was cautious. The weak dollar and potential US tariffs on copper provided some support. The copper price was facing a directional choice, and if it effectively broke through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it might rise further [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum were oscillating strongly. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the cost of the ore end provided short - term support. Electrolytic aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the increase in US import aluminum tariffs supported the aluminum price [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.94%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.29%. Nickel ore prices were stable. The stainless - steel industry chain had weak demand, and the supply side had production cuts. The new energy sector had weak supply and demand. The market was mainly in a short - term oscillating state, lacking new driving factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed price trends, macro - economic data, inventory changes, demand situations, and factors affecting prices, and gave price resistance range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Analyzed price trends, supply - demand relationships of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and factors supporting the price [2]. - **Nickel**: Analyzed price trends, inventory changes, and the supply - demand situation of the stainless - steel and new energy industries, and judged the market state [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data of copper in different markets and time points, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [3]. - **Aluminum**: Presented price, inventory, and other data of aluminum, such as changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data of nickel, including changes in electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and nickel ore prices, and inventory levels [4]. - **Zinc**: Showed price, inventory, and other data of zinc, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. - **Tin**: Displayed price, inventory, and other data of tin, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Included charts of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Had charts of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Included charts of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Contained charts of social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Included charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][45]. 4. Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional qualifications, and achievements [48][49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in April declined to some extent compared with March but remained resilient under the background of the tariff war. The year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, which was significantly supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak. The cumulative new RMB loans in April reached 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 in April was 8%. The joint statement issued by China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the three departments held a joint press conference. The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy to reduce the cost of the liability side of enterprises. The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized that it would vigorously promote the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market and support, stabilize and activate the capital market through a quasi - flat fund. The CSRC said it would optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The internal policy drive is the main line for the stock index in 2025. In terms of financial reports, in the first quarter, the decline rate of the full - market revenue growth of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but was still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets and promoting the stable development of the real economy, leading to a stable increase in stock market valuations. The stock index is expected to fluctuate [1]. - On the day of the bond futures closing, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04%. The capital market remained loose, with DR007 rising 1BP to 1.56%. In June, it is difficult for the bond market to have a trending market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate following the capital market and economic fundamentals again. After the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the capital market is unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the short term, the expectation of incremental policies in the short term has cooled, and the economic resilience remains. The bond market shows a sideways shock pattern again after adjustment [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate. The internal policy drive is the main line in 2025. The measures are conducive to the stable development of the real economy and the stable increase of stock market valuations [1]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate. In June, it is difficult to have a trending market. After adjustment, it shows a sideways shock pattern [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes | Variety | 2025 - 06 - 04 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH (Stock Index Futures) | 2,673.6 | 2,668.6 | 5.0 | 0.19% | | IF (Stock Index Futures) | 3,842.4 | 3,824.8 | 17.6 | 0.46% | | IC (Stock Index Futures) | 5,688.8 | 5,638.4 | 50.4 | 0.89% | | IM (Stock Index Futures) | 6,054.0 | 5,998.0 | 56.0 | 0.93% | | Shanghai Composite 50 (Stock Index) | 2,690.8 | 2,687.3 | 3.5 | 0.13% | | CSI 300 (Stock Index) | 3,868.7 | 3,852.0 | 16.7 | 0.43% | | CSI 500 (Stock Index) | 5,739.0 | 5,694.8 | 44.2 | 0.78% | | CSI 1000 (Stock Index) | 6,123.2 | 6,070.0 | 53.1 | 0.88% | | TS (Bond Futures) | 102.40 | 102.35 | 0.044 | 0.04% | | TF (Bond Futures) | 106.04 | 105.96 | 0.075 | 0.07% | | T (Bond Futures) | 108.77 | 108.69 | 0.08 | 0.07% | | TL (Bond Futures) | 119.57 | 119.45 | 0.12 | 0.10% | [3] 3.3 Market News - On June 4, local time, the results of the South Korean presidential election were announced. Lee Jae - myung of the Democratic Party was elected president with a vote - share of 49.42% (17.2875 million votes). His term officially began at 6:21 am on June 4, and his inauguration ceremony was held at the National Assembly at 11 am on the same day [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, IM [6][7][10][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24][25].