软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，美国马丁路德金日，ICE 美棉休市，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.65%，报收 14545 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 21592 手至 80.10 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 3.7%。 | 震荡 | | | 15440 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨。国内市场方面，近日郑棉期价重心缓慢下 | | | | 移，关于 2026 年新疆地区种植面积调整的预期交易逐渐降温，市场关注重心回归 | | | 棉花 | 基本面。12 月零售数据公布，12 月社零同比增长 0.9%，全年累计同比增长 | | | | 12 月服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类零售额当月值同比上涨 0.6%，全年累计同比增加 3.2%， | | | | 增速均略慢于社零。出口方面，本年度服装出口同比下降 5%。中游纺织企业方面， | | | | 原料成本上涨后，企业开工意愿受到一定影响，目前大中小型纺织企业原料库存 | | | | 储备差异相对较大，关注节前纺企补货动作。综合来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate in a range. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all forecasted to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4]. - Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran, the confrontation over Greenland, and the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs are significant drivers of price fluctuations in the energy and chemical markets [1]. - The supply and demand dynamics of each product also play a crucial role in price movements. For instance, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while the demand for asphalt is weak in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, Brent March contract closed down $0.19 to $63.94 per barrel, a 0.30% decline. SC2603 closed at 440.3 yuan/barrel, down 2.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.52% decline. The end of the unrest in Iran reduces the risk of supply disruptions. Market attention has shifted to the Greenland issue, and the US Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs also adds uncertainty. In 2025, China's industrial crude oil production was 216.05 million tons, a 1.5% year - on - year increase, and the processing volume was 737.59 million tons, a 4.1% year - on - year increase. Currently, the market demand is divided, and the prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE showed slight increases. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, but the demand has some support. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, but the inflow of Venezuelan resources may be negative. The prices of FU and LU are likely to follow the trend of crude oil, with FU having higher volatility [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up 0.29% at 3142 yuan/ton. Concerns about raw materials have eased slightly. The price is mainly driven by the impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil. The demand will further shrink due to bad weather, and the market is in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation" [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.24% at 5030 yuan/ton, while EG2605 closed down 1.08% at 3755 yuan/ton. PX prices have some support due to supply contractions. The polyester and terminal industries are expected to reduce their production loads. TA prices are expected to follow raw material prices, and EG prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE declined. In 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased in both volume and value. The inventory in Qingdao has increased seasonally, and the prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the overseas supply from Iran remains low. The demand has weakened due to the shutdown of some MTO plants. The port de - stocking is still under pressure, and the prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The production margins of various polyolefin production methods are mostly negative. The supply will decrease slightly in January, and the demand will decline as the Spring Festival approaches. The prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market prices in East, North, and South China have adjusted. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The 05 contract has a large premium, and the prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes on January 19th and January 16th, as well as the historical quantiles of the latest basis rates [9]. 3.3 Market News - The end of the unrest in Iran reduces the risk of supply disruptions. The market is concerned about the confrontation over Greenland, where the US may impose tariffs on EU countries, and the EU is prepared to retaliate [11]. - The US Supreme Court may rule on tariffs in the coming weeks, which is a major test of the president's power [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for various products are provided, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][33][37][38][41][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spread charts between different contracts for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][54][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The spread and ratio charts between different varieties are presented, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [60][64][65][66]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The production profit and processing fee charts for various products are provided, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [68][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to be volatile. The market showed a pattern of rising and then falling throughout the day, with the three major indexes showing mixed performance. The central bank's interest rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boost the valuation of these sectors, and increase corporate profits. However, the market has entered a high - level volatile mode, and short - term fluctuations have increased. In the long - term, the risk of a significant decline in the index is relatively low [1]. - The bond market is expected to continue its bearish trend. The central bank's structural interest rate cut boosts the financing demand in relevant fields and is conducive to enhancing market risk appetite. The current economy maintains resilience and accelerates high - quality transformation, and the central bank emphasizes the reasonable recovery of prices, which is expected to lead to a bearish bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Stock Index**: The market had a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The central bank's decision to cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25BP is expected to support specific sectors. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading may increase the risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The current market is in a high - level volatile mode, and short - term fluctuations are large. The long - term upward trend of the market is driven by technological innovation and geopolitical factors [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 19, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 7.22 billion yuan. The central bank announced a series of policies including interest rate cuts, tool optimization, and quota expansion on January 15. The structural interest rate cut is expected to boost market risk appetite, but the bond market is expected to continue its bearish trend [2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From January 16 to January 19, 2026, the IH contract decreased by 0.22%, the IF contract increased by 0.11%, the IC contract increased by 0.68%, and the IM contract increased by 0.09% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: During the same period, the Shanghai Composite 50 index decreased by 0.12%, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.05%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.40% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract remained basically stable, the TF contract decreased by 0.02%, the T contract decreased by 0.02%, and the TL contract decreased by 0.22% [3]. Market News - In 2025, China's GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5%, and the GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 4.5% [4]. - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry showed good momentum, with the 3D printing equipment increasing by 52.5% throughout the year [4]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales dropped to 0.9%, with pressure on home appliance and building decoration retail [5]. - In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with the mining investment increasing by 2.5% and the manufacturing investment increasing by 0.6% [6]. - In 2025, China's real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%, and the real estate development climate index continued to decline [7]. - In December 2025, the housing prices in first, second, and third - tier cities in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened [8]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the basis trends of these contracts [10][11][12][13][14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The charts include the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [17][18][19][20][21][24]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [26][27][28][30][31].

Group 1: Index Trends - On January 19th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 4114.0 points, with a trading volume of 1190.138 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% to close at 14294.05 points, with a trading volume of 1518.211 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.4%, with a trading volume of 581.676 billion yuan, opening at 8204.63, closing at 8265.65, with a daily high of 8298.48 and a low of 8187.94 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.67%, with a trading volume of 560.926 billion yuan, opening at 8199.5, closing at 8287.95, with a daily high of 8318.37 and a low of 8195.09 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose by 0.05%, with a trading volume of 655.149 billion yuan, opening at 4720.19, closing at 4734.46, with a daily high of 4761.63 and a low of 4715.09 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell by 0.12%, with a trading volume of 166.18 billion yuan, opening at 3077.81, closing at 3075.94, with a daily high of 3094.97 and a low of 3065.94 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 32.92 points from the previous close. Sectors such as power equipment, basic chemicals, and machinery had a significant upward pull on the index, while media, communication, and computer sectors had a downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 55.28 points from the previous close. Power equipment, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals sectors had a significant upward pull on the index, while computer and electronics sectors had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 2.59 points from the previous close. Power equipment, national defense and military industry, and basic chemicals sectors had a significant upward pull on the index, while electronics, computer, and banking sectors had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 fell 3.82 points from the previous close. Basic chemicals, commerce and retail, and national defense and military industry sectors had an upward pull on the index, while pharmaceutical biology, banking, and non - ferrous metals sectors had a downward pull [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 6.83, IM01 had - 42.72, IM02 had - 237.19, and IM03 had - 411.27 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of 9.91, IC01 had - 0.61, IC02 had - 132.47, and IC03 had - 262.6 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of 2.38, IF01 had - 1.53, IF02 had - 43.71, and IF03 had - 101.76 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 3.41, IH01 had 5.84, IH02 had 2.15, and IH03 had - 27.93 [13].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 1 9 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 812.0 | 813.0 | -1.0 | I05-I09 | 18.5 | 19.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 793.5 | 794.0 | -0.5 | I09-I01 | -13.0 | -38.5 | 25.5 | | I01 | 806.5 | 832.5 | -26.0 | I01-I05 | -5.5 | 19.5 | -25.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 15, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 1.31% to 163,220 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 4,000 yuan/ton to 155,500 yuan/ton. The battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 3,500 yuan/ton to 150,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 47 tons to 27,205 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons. The production from spodumene increased by 165 tons to 14,124 tons, while the production from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,936 tons, the production from salt lake decreased by 40 tons to 3,145 tons, and the production from recycled materials decreased by 35 tons to 2,400 tons. The lithium carbonate production in January 2026 is expected to decline by 1.2% to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in January 2026 is expected to decline by 5% to 78,180 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 10% to 363,400 tons; the production of ternary power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decline by 6.15% to 28.7 GWh, the lithium iron power batteries are expected to decline by 9.77% to 90.01 GWh, and the lithium iron energy storage is expected to increase by 0.99% to 63.15 GWh. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons to 109,679 tons, with the downstream inventory decreasing by 888 tons to 35,652 tons, the inventory in other links decreasing by 720 tons to 54,300 tons, and the upstream inventory increasing by 1,345 tons to 19,727 tons [3]. - Considering the export tax - rebate adjustment, strong terminal expectations, anti - involution of battery manufacturers, and the upward revision of production schedules by cathode materials manufacturers, even though the significant increase in raw material prices may suppress terminal demand, it is difficult to disprove this in the short term. Under the trading logic of low downstream inventory and long - term bullishness on lithium prices, there will still be stocking demand and speculative demand from funds even if the price drops. Therefore, without the demand being disproven, the overall price trend is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 163,220 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 161,900 yuan/ton, down 4,440 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,060 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,935 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 16,250 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 17,850 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 150,500 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 154,850 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 143,900 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 16 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 155,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 38,397.6 yuan/ton, up 3,410 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 119,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 105,350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 98,600 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 119,250 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 192,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 182,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 188,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 205,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 55,715 yuan/ton, down 875 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) was 54,167.5 yuan/ton, down 917.5 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 50,585 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 56,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 404,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.525 yuan/Wh, up 0.017 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.54 yuan/Wh, up 0.01 yuan; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.85 yuan/piece, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.356 yuan/Wh, up 0.004 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.47 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.75 yuan/Ah, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.306 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Ore prices**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 - 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and lithium salt prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 - 2026 [12][14][17]. - **Price differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 - 2026 [19][20][21]. - **Precursor and cathode materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2026 [25][27][30]. - **Lithium battery prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2026 [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 29, 2025, to January 15, 2026 [38][40]. - **Production cost**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, 外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 - 2026 [43][44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may have some divergence at the current position and operate in a range, but in the long - term, there are still things to look forward to on the policy side, and there may still be some room for the cotton price to rise [1] - For sugar, the domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with much speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is also significant hedging pressure above the 5300 integer mark. As the holiday approaches, it should be treated with a range - bound and weak outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.57% to 64.62 cents per pound, and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased 0.61% to 14,675 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 6,537 lots to 835,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,550 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical situation is volatile, and the U.S. is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating strongly above 99. The USDA January report slightly reduced the expected output of U.S. cotton in the 2025/26 season, supporting the U.S. cotton price. In the domestic market, the amplitude of Zhengzhou cotton has narrowed recently. The USDA January report slightly increased the expected output and consumption of Chinese cotton in the 2025/26 season, in line with market expectations. The year - on - year clothing exports this year have declined. The raw material inventory reserves of textile enterprises vary greatly, and attention should be paid to their replenishment actions before the festival [1] - **Sugar**: The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups range from 5320 to 5380 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5190 - 5230 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures price is under pressure due to the decline in energy prices and the significant increase in India's production year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India. The domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is significant hedging pressure above 5300 [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is - 15, down 5; the main basis is 1297, up 137. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,727, up 10, and the national spot price is 15,972, up 2 [2] - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 3, up 3; the main basis is 100, up 29. The spot price in Nanning is 5360, down 10, and in Liuzhou is 5380, up 10 [2] 3. Market Information - On January 15, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9329, an increase of 493 from the previous trading day, with 1209 valid forecasts [3] - On January 15, the cotton arrival prices in various domestic regions were: 15,727 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,968 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,060 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,168 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On January 15, the comprehensive yarn load was 49, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.5, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 32.7, down 0.1 from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5360 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5380 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14126, an increase of 4387 from the previous trading day, with 755 valid forecasts [4] 4. Chart Analysis - There are various charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][12][14][16] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry research, and has won many awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant awards [21] Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [24]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 1 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 813.0 | 821.0 | -8.0 | I05-I09 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 | | I09 | 794.0 | 799.0 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -38.5 | -33.5 | -5.0 | | I01 | 832.5 | 832.5 | 0.0 | I01-I05 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices initially declined and then rebounded, with losses in domestic refined copper imports persisting. The US labor market remains resilient, and a Fed official said there's no reason to cut interest rates. China's central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons, Comex inventories increased by 4,653 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and BC copper increased by 2,098 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream procurement became more cautious, and the export window is gradually opening. Trump said he would not impose tariffs on key minerals like copper. The high - level instability of copper prices is evident, and there is a divergence between foreign capital's bullish sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Spot alumina prices fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina producers have high ore reserves, and costs are under pressure. With the end of environmental controls and increased production, along with imports, inventories are accumulating. The processing end of the photovoltaic industry may maintain resilience, and the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has eased slightly. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount is narrowing [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.04% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.24%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce its nickel ore production target in 2026, which may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap and stimulate nickel price increases. The first - level nickel production has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. Short - term, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US labor market data is strong, and China's central bank cut interest rates. Inventory changes vary in different markets. High copper prices make downstream procurement cautious, and the export window is opening. Trump's statement on tariffs and external risks affect copper prices, with a divergence between market sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures and spot prices of aluminum - related products are weak. Alumina costs are under pressure, inventories are accumulating, and the processing end may maintain resilience, with aluminum prices remaining high and the discount narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight, inventories increased. Indonesia's production cut plan may drive up prices, while increased production and hedging demand pose challenges [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 15, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventories decreased by 500 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 1,070 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 3,800 tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 2,107 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 470 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 2,000 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 14,010 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased by 16,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,350 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased by 624 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 1,700 tons, and social inventories increased by 2,126 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 6,230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.8%. LME inventories decreased by 25 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 793 tons, and social inventories decreased by 5,000 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 8.3%. LME inventories decreased by 5 tons, SHFE inventories decreased by 1,001 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [12]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [18]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [30]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [37]. Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience and many honors; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both with significant achievements and media exposure [44][45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Urea**: The urea futures price showed a firm oscillation on Thursday, with the main 05 - contract closing at 1801 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase. The supply is expected to rise with the potential resumption of gas - based enterprises. Demand sentiment has slightly declined, but there is still support from winter - storage fertilizers, industrial downstream demand, and pre - spring plowing demand. The price may continue to be strong at high levels, but the high price may suppress market purchasing sentiment. The final result of the Indian tender this week will affect the domestic market. It is recommended to take a high - level and strong approach in the short term, and pay attention to the previous high - point pressure level of the main contract [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price weakened on Thursday, with the main 05 - contract closing at 1193 yuan/ton, a 2.05% decrease. The industry's operating rate and weekly output have increased, and the supply is continuously recovering. Demand follow - up is average, and the reduction in downstream float and photovoltaic capacity suppresses the rigid demand for soda ash. The inventory has increased slightly, and the supply pressure remains high. The futures price will continue to have a wide - range oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking intensity of mid - and downstream enterprises [2]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price showed a weak oscillation on Thursday, with the main 05 - contract closing at 1086 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease. The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand follow - up has slightly slowed down. After this round of restocking, the demand support will be limited. The inventory has decreased, but the rigid demand is insufficient, and the inventory reduction is mainly due to the transfer of goods to the mid - and downstream. The futures price will have a wide - range oscillation, and the market will be under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Urea** - On January 15, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 13,355, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 100 [5]. - On January 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 202,800 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous working day and 16,500 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 86.14%, a 2.96 - percentage - point increase from 83.18% in the same period last year [5]. - On January 14, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased, such as Shandong at 1,760 yuan/ton (+20), and Henan at 1,760 yuan/ton (+10) [5]. - On January 14, the urea enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons (-3.53%) from the previous week [6]. - **Soda Ash & Glass** - On January 15, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,563, a decrease of 250 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,291. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,048, a decrease of 10 from the previous trading day [8]. - On January 15, the spot prices of soda ash varied by region. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton [8]. - As of the week of January 15, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.82%, a 2.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The output was 775,300 tons, a 21,700 - ton (+2.88%) increase from the previous week [8]. - On January 15, the soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1,575,000 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons (+0.66%) from Monday and 2,300 tons (+0.15%) from last Thursday [8]. - On January 14, the average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 150,700 tons per day, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - On January 15, the float glass enterprise inventory was 53.013 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes (-4.51%) from the previous week, and an increase of 20.89% from the same period last year. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous week [9]. Chart Analysis The report presents multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends and price differences of related products. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [11][14][23]. Team Introduction The resource product team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different research areas and have rich experience and many honors in the industry [26].