Report Title - 2025 Q4 Lithium Carbonate Strategy Report [1] Report Date - September 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the first three quarters of this year, the lithium carbonate futures price bottomed out and stabilized. After reaching a low of 58,000 yuan/ton in late June, the price strengthened due to supply-side disturbances. The supply of lithium carbonate increased by over 40% year-on-year, while downstream demand showed rapid growth, especially in the output of lithium iron phosphate. The total inventory turnover days have decreased, but downstream inventory has increased significantly. As the National Day approaches, the pre-holiday restocking momentum will gradually weaken. The issue of lithium mine mining license changes in Jiangxi after the holiday remains uncertain, which affects market sentiment. The price center hovers around 73,000 yuan/ton, with increased volatility. If the projects in Jiangxi resume production without issues, the bullish logic will be further weakened, and the price trend will depend more on demand. If production cannot resume as scheduled or other projects shut down, the price center will continue to rise. Considering that 2026 is expected to be the last major year of supply capacity expansion in this cycle, the supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year. A new cycle will require further demand growth [7]. - The price range is expected to be between 60,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory 1 Price, Spread, and Positioning - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 2 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import-Export Profit - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 3 Inventory - As of the end of September, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was about 137,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the peak of 143,000 tons in July. The total inventory turnover days decreased to 39 days [6][30] 4 Supply 4.1 Global Lithium Resource Supply and Cost - In 2025, the global lithium resource supply (including recycling) is expected to be 1.651 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.022 million tons. The 80th percentile of the含税 cash cost of lithium resources is about 60,000 yuan/ton, and the 90th percentile is 65,000 yuan/ton [10][36] 4.2 Lithium Ore Production, Import, and Chilean Shipment - From January to August 2025, the domestic lithium ore production increased by 44% month-on-month to 145,000 tons, with a significant increase in spodumene and lepidolite. The cumulative import of lithium concentrate in China from January to August 2025 was 3.85 million tons, unchanged year-on-year. Imports from Canada increased significantly, those from Australia increased slightly, and those from Zimbabwe decreased significantly. From January to August 2025, Chile's shipment of lithium sulfate to China increased by 127% year-on-year to 60,000 tons [10][45][48] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium carbonate production increased by 41.6% year-on-year to 683,100 tons, with a significant increase in lithium extraction from spodumene. From January to August, the cumulative import increased by 4% year-on-year to 150,000 tons [10][58] 4.4 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hydroxide production decreased by 21% year-on-year to 214,000 tons [10][70] 4.5 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased by 40% year-on-year to 176,000 tons [10][73] 4.6 Waste Recycling - From January to August 2025, waste recycling increased by 8% year-on-year to 180,000 tons [10][76] 5 Demand 5.1 Total Demand - From January to September 2025, the two major cathode materials consumed a total of 697,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 51%. All demand consumed 826,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 44% [10][83] 5.2 Specific Materials - From January to September 2025, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year-on-year at 620,000 tons. The production of ternary materials increased by 11% year-on-year to 567,000 tons. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 66% year-on-year to 2.513 million tons. The production of cobalt acid lithium increased by 30% year-on-year to 86,000 tons, and the production of manganese acid lithium increased by 25% year-on-year to 105,000 tons [10][88][91][94][97] 5.3 Battery Production - From January to August 2025, the battery cell production increased by 50% year-on-year to 1,050 GWh, with power battery cells increasing by 47% and accounting for about 71%, and lithium iron phosphate power battery cells accounting for 70%. Energy storage battery cells increased by 59%. The lithium battery production increased by 48% year-on-year to 1,105 GWh, with lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 65%. The lithium battery installation increased by 43% year-on-year to 418 GWh, with LFP increasing by 65% to 340.5 GWh and NCM decreasing by 10% to 77.3 GWh [10][12][101][103][105] 5.4 Terminal Demand - **China's New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 7.556 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a retail penetration rate of 51% and an export volume of 2.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 58% for the first time. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, new energy vehicles will enjoy a 50% reduction in vehicle purchase tax [10][12][109] - **US New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, US automobile sales remained at 10.55 million year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 5% to 1.03 million, with a penetration rate increase of 0.4 pcts to 9.8%. The US House of Representatives passed a tax and expenditure reform bill, and the federal tax credit for new electric vehicles ($7,500) and used electric vehicles ($4,000) will end on September 30 [10][12][111] - **European New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, European automobile sales increased by 0.4 to 8.69 million, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% to 2.32 million, with a penetration rate increase of 4 pcts to 27% [10][12][117] - **Energy Storage**: From January to August 2025, the shipment of energy storage battery cells in China increased by 71% year-on-year to 307.45 GWh, and the global energy storage market is booming [10][12][119] 6 Supply-Demand Balance - Supply disturbances have raised the bottom price, and the next cycle will be driven by demand. The supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year [7][12][132]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stabilization and recovery of fixed - asset investment growth require the central government to increase fiscal leverage, as real - estate storage and infrastructure funds face challenges [2][8]. - China is undergoing an economic re - balance from investment to consumption. The government's assessment method may shift from GDP to increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP. Future policies may reform the social security system to release consumption potential [2][25]. - A moderate recovery of inflation is a prerequisite for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery will drive corporate profit improvement, increase residents' income, and then achieve consumption recovery. Future inflation is expected to stabilize and rebound [2][52]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Investment: Central Fiscal Leverage Expected to Increase - **Real - estate**: The downward inertia is large, policy support is gradually increasing, but demand - side stimulus policies have under - performed expectations. The progress of real - estate storage is accelerating, and central fiscal funds are crucial for breaking the "impossible triangle" among storage parties, sellers, and commercial banks [9][10][11]. - **Infrastructure**: The growth rate of infrastructure investment is declining. As of September 14, the proportion of new special bonds invested in land reserves is 14.3%. If the scale of land - reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the funds for traditional infrastructure may be less than in 2024. The infrastructure investment structure will continue to be divided, with central - government - led projects stronger and local - government - led projects weaker. The estimated overall infrastructure growth rate in 2025 is about 2.6% [14][18][20]. - **Manufacturing**: "Anti - involution" in emerging industries mainly restricts capital expenditure and capacity expansion, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth [22]. 3.2 Consumption: Structural Reform of Economic Re - balance - **Policy Support**: A series of consumption - related policies have been introduced, including measures to expand service consumption, financial support for consumption, and special action plans to boost consumption. These policies address both the supply and demand sides of consumption [25]. - **Problems in Consumption**: China's consumption rate is relatively low, mainly due to low household consumption rates. Factors include income polarization, large urban - rural income gaps, an imperfect social security system, and a low proportion of service consumption [28][33][37]. - **Solutions**: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses key consumption issues from multiple aspects such as income increase, consumption capacity support, service supply improvement, and policy support. Future consumption policies may focus more on service consumption [41][42][50]. 3.3 Inflation: An Important Tool to Stabilize Expectations and Promote Consumption - **Relationship with Consumption**: A moderate recovery of inflation is necessary for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery drives corporate profit improvement, increases residents' income, and promotes consumption recovery [52]. - **CPI Differentiation**: There are two significant differentiations in CPI. The core CPI and CPI are diverging, and service consumption and commodity consumption within the core CPI are also diverging. Future consumption policies may shift towards service consumption [55]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Considering the central bank's stance and the expected increase in "anti - involution" policies, future inflation will stabilize and rebound. Although inflation is in a state of "weak reality and strong expectation" in the second half of the year, the data recovery may occur in the first half of next year [58].

2 0 2 5年四季度聚酯策略报告 2 0 2 5 年 9 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 聚酯：原料投产在即，供需宽松格局 p 2 | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：成本端原油价格承压 | | | 2、PX：新增装置产能有限 | | | 3、PTA：新装置投产落地，供需宽松 | | | 4、MEG：煤制利润好，装置重启积极，累库预期增强 | | | 5、聚酯需求情况：需求前置，四季度需求偏弱 | | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | | p 3 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel，光大期货研究所 p 4 1.1 价格：聚酯产业链各品种涨跌幅 石脑油-原油 （美元/吨） MX-石脑油 （美元/吨） PXN （美元/吨） PX-MX （美元/吨） PTA加工费 （元/吨） 石脑油制MEG现金流 （美元/吨） POY现金流 （元/吨） FDY现金流 （元/吨） DTY现金流 （元/吨） 煤制MEG现金流 （元/吨） 2025/9/23 105.3 60.5 2 ...

2 0 2 5年四季度涤纶短纤策略报告 涤纶短纤：成本端承压，短纤基本面尚可 p 2 | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | | 1、涤纶短纤价格：跟随原油价格震荡 | | | 2、涤纶短纤成本端：关注装置新投产落地情况 | | | 3、涤纶短纤供应端：开工持续高位 | | | 4、涤纶短纤需求端：订单恢复一般 | | | 5、涤纶短纤终端需求：终端需求预期收缩 | | | 6、涤纶短纤持仓情况 | | 2 0 2 5 年 9 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S p 3 1.1 价格：涤纶短纤期货、现货、基差 资料来源：iFind，光大期货研究所 | 单位 ：元/吨 | PF主力收盘价 | 1 4D直纺涤短 . | 基 差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/24 | 6296 | 6460 | 164 | | 2025/6/30 | 6542 | 6805 | 263 | | 变化值 | -246 | -345 | -99 | | 涨跌幅 | -3 8% . | -5 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - **Domestic Weather Impact**: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - **Global Output**: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - **La Nina Probability**: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - **Overseas Exports**: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - **EUDR Delay**: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - **Other Supply Factors**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - **Automobile Industry Policy**: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - **Tire Market**: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 9 月 2 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 785.5 | 783.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 21.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 765.0 | 762.0 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | -40.5 | -41.5 | 1.0 | | I01 | 805.5 | 803.5 | 2.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 22 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外盘铜价震荡偏弱，未能进一步延续涨势，国内现货进口处于亏损态势。宏观方 | | | | 面，美国二季度实际 GDP 年化季环比终值 3.8%，高于预期和前值 3.3%；美国二季度 | | | | PCE 物价指数年化季环比终值 2.6%，略高于预期和前值 2.5%。该数据表明美国经济 | | | | 韧性和通胀顽固性同在。美国首申失业金人数为 21.8 万人，较前周下降 1.4 万人，为 | | | | 七月以来最低水平，劳动力市场放缓担忧减缓。昨晚美联储理事米兰表示应每次降息 | | | | 50 个基点，通过"短暂且大幅"降息快速达到中性利率。库存方面，LME 库存下降 350 | | | | 吨至 144425 吨；Comex 库存增加 2564 吨至 291260 吨；SMM 周四统计国内铜社会库 | | | 铜 | 存较周一下降 0.44 万吨至 14.01 万吨。需求方面，长假到来，下游采购相对谨慎。美 | | | | Freeport M ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.93% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 71,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 40,309 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 120 tons to 12,989 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,840 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 18 tons to 2,763 tons, and lithium recycling increased by 35 tons to 1,924 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking. Downstream inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 60,893 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,440 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 964 tons to 33,492 tons [3]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and the firm price of lithium ore still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. It is necessary to manage positions well [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,740 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 856 US dollars/ton. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton and 1,875 yuan/ton respectively. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased by 70 yuan to 6,150 yuan/ton, and the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased by 75 yuan to 7,285 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.05 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price increased by 250 yuan to 58,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 230 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 494 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells increased slightly, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, different grades of lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - **Spreads**: Charts 11 - 22 show the trends of various spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][22]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].

黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3167 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 3 元/吨，涨幅为 0.09%，持仓减少 1.18 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交小幅回升，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 3030 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.82 万吨。据 | | | | 我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 0.01 万吨至 206.46 万吨，同比增加 1 万吨；社库环比回落 13.32 | | | | 万吨至 471.89 万吨，同比增加 184.56 万吨；厂库环比回落 0.66 万吨至 164.41 万吨，同比增加 36.28 万吨； | | | | 螺纹表需增加 10.41 万吨至 220.44 吨，同比减少 35.02 万吨。螺纹产量基本持平，库存连续第二周下降， | | | | 表需回升，供需数据有所改善。目前螺纹供需仍有一定压力，但当前价格估值不高，后期反 ...