工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 点评 2 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8975 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.18%，持仓 减仓 15932 手至 18.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 10 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 56315 元/吨，日内涨跌幅 2.7%，持 仓减仓 12837 手至 12.93 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 5250 元/ 吨。供给延续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工 业硅重心有成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步 下滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂 坚持减产不降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，淡化近月挤仓情 绪，晶硅回调修正，仓单不足情况下近月暂无深跌空间。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 | ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力合约收盘价1687元/吨，微幅上涨0.3%。现货市场稳中 幅 波动运行，主流地区现货价格波动幅 -10 +20元/吨。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均为 | | | | 1680元/吨，日环比分别下调10元/吨、维持稳定。基本面来看，近期部分气头企业开 降负荷 | | | | ，尿素供应水平 步回 ，昨日行业日产量19.56万吨，日环比下降0.34万吨。需求端跟进情绪 | | | 尿素 | 在价格 续上涨后明 转弱，昨日主流地区现货产销率回 至5% 90%区间，仅个别地区产销 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 率超过100%。短期现货市场情绪回 但企业 行 单为主，出货压力 时不大。后续尿素刚 | | | | 需及储备需求仍存，需求支撑仍在。整体来看，近期尿素基本面多 因素均有，上下游产业 | | | | 也在气头企业开工下降与需求之间持续博弈。预计尿素期货盘面延续宽幅震荡 势，关注主 | | | | 力合约 仓 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The market anticipates that if the dovish Hassert is elected as the new Fed Chair, it will strengthen the market's dovish bets, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation poses challenges. Domestically, attention is on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In December, the estimated domestic electrolytic copper production is 1168800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. There are uncertainties about whether the price can continue to rebound as the off - season approaches and there is no sign of a rapid release of demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur; instead, there were new investments and复产 rhythms, leading to a significant correction in the futures market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand is gradually being fulfilled in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the matching of State Grid orders concludes, it is less likely for aluminum prices to reach a new high this year, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory of primary nickel is under pressure, and the production in December is expected to increase month - on - month. Considering the cost support of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110000 yuan/ton, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors' impact on maintaining an optimistic mood is uncertain. Microscopically, the shortage of concentrates supports copper's high valuation, but the lack of rapid demand release in the off - season makes price recovery uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: The non - occurrence of expected environmental production restrictions and new investments/复产 have led to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have support, but the possibility of reaching a new high is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain is weak, while the new energy industry chain has tight raw materials. One can consider bottom - fishing with cost support but beware of risks [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 610 yuan/ton, and the inventory in some exchanges changed. For example, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased slightly, and the total inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8439 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 225 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price decreased by 3500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][16]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [52]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, tracking the new energy industry chain and providing policy interpretations [53].

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转移，期价延续震荡表 待涨的情绪较为明显。华北地区深加工企业玉米价格偏弱运行，特别是山东地区， | 震荡 | | | 现。今日东北玉米价格表现仍偏强，粮点低价难上量，目前走货情况也显一般， | | | | 产区贸易商及烘干塔收购积极性一般；基层农户目前售粮积极性一般，基层惜售 | | | 玉米 | 深加工企业到货车辆维持高位，多数企业下调 6-20 元/吨，基层粮点玉米价格整 | | | | 体维持稳定。河南个别深加工上调。河北维持稳定。当前基层农户惜售情绪依然 | | | | 存在，基层收购量未有明显增加，终端需求刚性采购为主，随着气温降低，深加 | | | | 工企业建库意愿或会有所增加。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强势表现，期价震荡 | | | | 调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动态止盈。 | | | | 周二，CBOT 大豆收跌，因缺乏支持性消息，且预期南美大豆将丰收。周二美国 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报 | 率震荡小幅上行，收益率曲线陡峭化。展望 12 月，资金宽松但降息预期较 | | --- | | 弱，经济边际走弱但整体保持韧性，通胀延续温和回升态势，预计年内延续 | | 窄幅震荡走势。 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 03 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日市场全天震荡调整，三大指数集体下挫。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 3700 股飘绿，成交超 1.6 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.42%，深成指跌 0.68%，创 | | | | 业板指跌 0.69%。随着 6 月以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本 | | | | 面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平存在 | | | | 乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显， | | | | 中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏 | | ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘下跌 0.68 美元至 58.64 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.15%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘下跌 0.72 美元至 62.45 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.14%。SC2601 以 449.9 元/桶收盘，下跌 3.4 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 0.75%。地缘方面，俄总统普京和美国特使威特科夫举 | | | | 行会晤。此前，美乌代表团围绕美方提出的俄乌"和平计划"在 | | | | 美国佛罗里达州举行会谈。美国国务卿表示，双方在日内瓦会谈 | | | | 基础上又取得一些进展，但"有更多工作要做"。乌克兰总统泽 | | | | 连斯基表示，当天的谈判"具有建设性"，对所有议题都进行了 | | | 原油 | 坦诚讨论，以确保乌克兰主权和国家利益。俄罗斯黑海 Tuapse 港 | 震荡 | | | 的石油产品出口量预计在 12 月增至 112.3 万吨，较 11 月最初计 | | | | 划的 89.5 万吨/日增长 21.4%。与此同时，根据 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 玉米现货报价偏强运行，周末东北玉米价格偏强运行为主，东北深加工玉米收购 价格上涨对行情仍有一定的支撑，基层农户惜售情绪较为明显。 周末山东玉米 供应市场，短期市场情绪看涨预期较强，预计随着本地粮源供应量逐渐增加，华 | 震荡上涨 | | | 周一，玉米近月 2601 和 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价当日下探后尾盘收复部分失地。 | | | | 价格整体维持稳定，部分企业玉米价格有涨有跌，调整范围有限。东北粮源持续 | | | | 北玉米供应紧张的局面有望得到缓解。 周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口 | | | | 贸易商报价保持高位，但市场整体购销活跃度一般，高价成交偏少。下游饲料厂 | | | | 观望心态为主，维持 30-40 天安全头寸滚动补库。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强 | | | | 势表现，期价震荡调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动 | | | | 态止盈。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收跌，因市场关注出口销售数据。USDA 检验报告显示，美豆 口销售报告显示，截至 10 月 2 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约 2605 合约涨 0.56%至 96940 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价 上涨 600 元/吨至 94350 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 600 元/吨至 91900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化 锂（粗颗粒）上涨 400 元/吨至 82480 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 2781 吨至 8222 吨。 2. 消息面，江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿非油气采矿权变更登记(含续期)进入受理阶段。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比减少 265 吨至 21865 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 20 吨至 13364 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 50 吨至 3021 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 400 吨至 3225 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 65 吨至 2245 吨；据 SMM 数据，12 月预计供应环比增加 3%至 9.8 万吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比 增加 259 吨至 19261 吨，库存环比增加 71 吨至 1936 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 三、市场信息 1、12 月 1 日棉花期货仓单数量 2403 张，较上一交易日减少 5 张，有效预报 2147 张。 软商品日报 二、日度数据监测 | 品种 | 合约价差 | | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | | 1-5 | 40 | 0 | 1171 | 0 | 新疆 | 14763 | 40 | | | | | | | | | 全国 | 14936 | 40 | | 白糖 | | 1-5 | 70 | -6 | 160 | -35 | 南宁 | 5470 | 0 | | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5565 | -30 | 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 0.11%，报收 64.64 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.44%，报收 13765 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply is at a high level with the daily output of 19.9 million tons on December 1st, a daily decrease of 0.44 million tons. Demand shows regional differences, with sales - to - production ratios ranging from 70% - 95% to 120% - 150% in different areas. The start - up rate of gas - based enterprises and demand will continue to compete, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of gas - based enterprises, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. - The soda ash market is expected to have a bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is gradually recovering with the industry's start - up rate reaching 80.65% on December 1st, a daily increase of 5 percentage points. Demand is mixed, with some downstream having low - price restocking needs, but the declining capacity of float glass is not conducive to rigid demand. The market needs more drivers for a trend change, and attention should be paid to production levels, product - output rhythm from Alxa, downstream purchasing rhythm, and related market trends [1]. - The glass market is expected to have a short - term bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is decreasing with the daily output dropping to 15.5 million tons on December 1st, and there are still plans for cold - repair of production lines. Demand remains positive but with a slightly weakened amplitude, and the sales - to - production ratio is in the range of 90% - 100%. Attention should be paid to the decline in supply, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On December 1st, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 7,937, an increase of 350 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 762 [4]. - On December 1st, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to the same period last year. The start - up rate was 82.28%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase compared to 81.61% in the same period last year [4]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of small - particle urea in different regions were: Shandong 1,690 yuan/ton (+20), Henan 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton (+30), Anhui 1,680 yuan/ton (+30), Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), and Shanxi 1,550 yuan/ton (+20) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 1st, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,529, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,018. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided, such as North China (light 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy 1,300 yuan/ton), Central China (light 1,150 yuan/ton, heavy 1,250 yuan/ton), etc. [6]. - On December 1st, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.65%, compared to 75.27% on the previous working day [7]. - On December 1st, the average price of the float glass market was 1,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 15.5 million tons, a daily decrease of 0.22 million tons [7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and between different commodities such as urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][10][18][19] Research Team Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [22]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties like cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant titles [22].