1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Strong - side oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Limited upside space [1] - Ferrosilicon: Some support [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with slightly accumulated inventory but still at a low level, and there are insufficient market contradictions and drivers. The iron ore market has a strong - side support from high - level hot metal production, despite a small increase in port inventory. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as production resumption, policy, and environmental protection, and are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are driven by market sentiment, but the fundamentals have limited driving force for price increases [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, and the spot price also increased slightly with rising trading volume. The production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand dropped significantly. It is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures price continued to rise, and the port spot price was strong. Supply decreased slightly last week, and demand increased with the rise in hot metal production. It is expected to continue the strong - side oscillation [1]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price rose, and the spot price in the Mongolian coal market was strong. Domestic coal mines are resuming production, and Indonesia plans to levy an export tax. Demand is weak, but it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price rose, and the spot price at ports remained stable. The first price increase of coke enterprises was implemented, and some regions had production restrictions. Demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price strengthened, and the spot price was basically stable. Steel tenders are ongoing, and the supply is increasing while demand is slightly decreasing. The price has some support but limited upside space [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price strengthened, and the spot price was basically stable. Market sentiment improved, supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The price has some support, but the upside space is not large [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread changes, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety's contracts also changed, for example, the basis of rebar 10 - contract decreased by 7 yuan [4]. - **Profit and spreads**: The profit of rebar on the futures market decreased by 5.9, and there were also changes in other profit indicators and spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and coke - coal ratio [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: The document provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - **Main contract basis**: It shows basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc., with different time - series bases presented [19][20]. - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts for different contracts of various varieties, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [27]. - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: It includes spread trend charts for different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread and rebar - iron ore ratio [41]. - **Rebar profit**: There are profit trend charts for rebar, including the futures market profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black - metal research field [52][53].

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 现货市场方面，进口玉米持续拍卖，进口供应增加，玉米市场供应压力加大。周 强运行，深加工玉米价格普遍上调 10-30 元/吨。价格持续下跌后，贸易商出货 | | | | 周四，玉米 9 月合约多空增持，主力合约期价在 2280 元的价格低位企稳上行。 | | | | 五进口玉米继续拍卖 22.89 万吨，进口玉米持续拍卖对市场的气氛有一定的不利 | | | | 影响，贸易商随行出货，东北玉米整体购销气氛较为清淡。华北地区玉米价格偏 | | | | | 下跌 | | | 积极性明显减弱，到货量维持低位。 销区市场玉米价格暂稳运行。经过短期的 | | | | 价格下调，市场逐步恢复平稳，港口贸易商报价暂稳，下游饲料厂仍执行前期订 | | | | 单为主，对于跌价的玉米观望为主。技术上，玉米 9 月合约期价围绕 2300 元整 | | | | 数关口波动，短线关注 2300 关口新增头寸对价格的提振性影响，中期价格延续 | | | | 偏弱表现。 | | | | 周四，C ...

Index Trends - On July 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3516.83 points with a trading volume of 609.791 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to close at 10873.62 points with a trading volume of 929.578 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% with a trading volume of 325.984 billion yuan, opening at 6458.41, closing at 6535.67, with a high of 6535.67 and a low of 6451.15 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% with a trading volume of 235.043 billion yuan, opening at 6013.71, closing at 6082.46, with a high of 6082.46 and a low of 6013.04 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.68% with a trading volume of 325.517 billion yuan, opening at 4005.07, closing at 4034.49, with a high of 4034.59 and a low of 4005.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.12% with a trading volume of 74.646 billion yuan, opening at 2737.35, closing at 2744.26, with a high of 2744.74 and a low of 2732.35 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 73.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Electronics, and Machinery having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 65.27 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Electronics, Medicine & Biology, and National Defense & Military Industry having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 27.29 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Electronics, Communication, and Medicine & Biology having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 3.36 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Food & Beverage, Medicine & Biology, and National Defense & Military Industry having a significant upward pull, while sectors such as Transportation, Communication, and Banking had a downward pull [3]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -8.13, IM01 -75.98, IM02 -151.1, and IM03 -336.78 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -1.49, IC01 -54.76, IC02 -108.14, and IC03 -235.3 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -3.57, IF01 -15.25, IF02 -27.9, and IF03 -63.8 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -2.73, IH01 -5.16, IH02 -5.96, and IH03 -4.36 [14]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are presented in detailed tables [25][26][27][28].

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力09合约收盘价1743元/吨，日环比涨0.52%。现货 市场涨跌互现，山东临沂地区市场价格小幅提升至1800元/吨，河南、河北地区价 | | | | 格小幅回落。基本面来看，尿素日产继续 幅 动，昨日行业日产量19.42万吨， | | | 尿素 | 日环比降0.05万吨。需求端跟进力度依旧分化， 部地区高价回落后收单有所 好 | 震荡 | | | ，河北、华东地区产销明 好转。尿素企业已积 少量 发 单，支撑厂家挺价心 | | | | 态。整体来看，当前尿素市场驱动有限，预计尿素期货价格 续震荡 势，关注日 | | | | 产 平、现货成交情况及商品市场整体情绪。 | | | | 周四纯碱现货价格维持稳定， 易商报价继续跟 盘面 动。昨日 河地区重碱 易自提价格1215元/吨，日环比涨17元/吨。基本面来看，本周纯碱行业开工率提 | | | | 升2.78个百分点，纯碱产量增幅3.42%，企业库存提升2.26%，中上 供应压力均有 | | | 纯碱 | 提升。需求相对分化，下游光 玻璃 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, the current fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery. With the continued decline of PPI in June, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions. Although corporate profits improved in H1 2025 compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index is expected to fluctuate in the future [1]. - For treasury bonds, the treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The economic data in Q2 and June were resilient, but with the monetary policy support, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of funds, and the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen further and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose from 2,730.4 to 2,741.4, an increase of 11.0 or 0.40% [3]. - IF rose from 3,971.0 to 4,011.8, an increase of 40.8 or 1.03% [3]. - IC rose from 5,895.2 to 5,978.0, an increase of 82.8 or 1.40% [3]. - IM rose from 6,298.0 to 6,390.4, an increase of 92.4 or 1.47% [3]. Stock Indices - The Shanghai Composite 50 rose from 2,740.9 to 2,744.3, an increase of 3.4 or 0.12% [3]. - The CSI 300 rose from 4,007.2 to 4,034.5, an increase of 27.3 or 0.68% [3]. - The CSI 500 rose from 6,017.2 to 6,082.5, an increase of 65.3 or 1.08% [3]. - The CSI 1000 rose from 6,462.1 to 6,535.7, an increase of 73.6 or 1.14% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS rose from 102.42 to 102.44, an increase of 0.016 or 0.02% [3]. - TF rose from 106.00 to 106.05, an increase of 0.045 or 0.04% [3]. - T rose from 108.84 to 108.89, an increase of 0.05 or 0.05% [3]. - TL rose from 120.71 to 120.73, an increase of 0.02 or 0.02% [3]. Group 4: Market News - This year, the national summer grain output was 299.48 billion jin, the second-highest in history after last year, laying a solid foundation for the stable annual grain production [4]. Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury bond futures, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][15][17]. Exchange Rates - Charts show the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [20][21][24]. Group 6: Team Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master in economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [27]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, including macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market fund tracking [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][3][4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall volatility of oil prices has decreased, lacking market drivers, and oil prices are oscillating repeatedly. Most energy and chemical products' markets have unclear unilateral drivers and generally follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rebounded. WTI August contract rose $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel (1.75% increase), Brent September contract rose $1.00 to $69.52 per barrel (1.46% increase), and SC2508 closed at 524.1 yuan per barrel, up 10.5 yuan (2.04% increase). Last week, US crude oil inventories declined, and Iraq's crude oil production decreased by about 200,000 barrels per day. Chevron's production in the largest US oil field is approaching a plateau. Entering the hurricane - prone season, its impact on oil prices needs attention. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX light - sweet crude oil futures decreased by 10.8% [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan per ton. As of the week ending July 14, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventories decreased by 1323000 barrels (5.35%) week - on - week, and Fujairah's fuel oil inventories decreased by 682000 barrels (6.65%) week - on - week. The short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil for range - bound oscillations [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.3% at 3,628 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 26.18%, down 0.82% week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.34%, down 0.14% week - on - week; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 33.72%, down 0.88% week - on - week. The short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% yesterday; EG2509 closed at 4,372 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. As of July 17, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% (up 1.37% from the previous period), and the PTA load reached 79.7%. Polyester prices are oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro environment and crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 14,665 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 95 yuan per ton to 12,585 yuan per ton. In June 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 703000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The price has returned to an oscillating trend. Iran's plant operating load has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has increased to a relatively high level, with limited subsequent increments. Downstream profits have recovered, and subsequent operations will remain stable [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and there is little room for further decline. The agricultural film market will strengthen seasonally, and the market is expected to gradually trade on demand recovery, with prices expected to fluctuate narrowly [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price in the East China PVC market changed little on Thursday. The overall supply has decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further. The upside rebound space is limited [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of multiple energy and chemical products on July 17 and 16, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. It also explains the calculation methods and data sources [9] 3.3 Market News - Signs of tightness in the crude oil spot market supported oil prices. Last week, US crude oil inventories declined, and Iraq's crude oil production decreased due to drone attacks. Chevron's production in the largest US oil field is approaching a plateau. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers warned that Trump's preference for Fed interest - rate setting may lead to a surge in inflation expectations and higher long - term borrowing costs [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Presents the historical closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: Displays the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32] - **Inter - term Contract Spreads**: Shows the historical spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [40][42][45] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Illustrates the historical spreads and ratios between different products, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][61][62] - **Production Profits**: Presents the historical production profit trends of products like ethylene - glycol, polypropylene, etc. [66][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [71] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry and many achievements [72] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical abilities, and has won many awards [73] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [74]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoint The report provides a daily data tracking of stock index futures on July 16, 2025, including index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and points differences and annualized costs during contract rollovers. Summaries by Section Index Trends - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78 points, with a trading volume of 572.419 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 10720.81 points, with a trading volume of 869.619 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.3%, with a trading volume of 306.083 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.03%, with a trading volume of 213.065 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23%, with a trading volume of 68.142 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.3%, with a trading volume of 300.657 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index rose 19.23 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as pharmaceutical and biological, machinery, and automotive had a significant upward pull, while non - ferrous metals had a downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 Index rose - 1.57 points compared to the previous close. Sectors like pharmaceutical and biological, automotive, and power equipment had an upward pull, while banking, steel, and electronics had a downward pull [2]. - The CSI 300 Index rose - 11.86 points compared to the previous close. Sectors such as power equipment, non - banking finance, and banking had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index rose - 6.33 points compared to the previous close. The electronics sector had an upward pull, while pharmaceutical and biological, banking, and non - banking finance had a downward pull [2]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 9.55, IM01 was - 79.03, IM02 was - 151.94, and IM03 was - 331.89 [13]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 4.06, IC01 was - 60.43, IC02 was - 114.57, and IC03 was - 237.99 [13]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 5.2, IF01 was - 19.39, IF02 was - 32.13, and IF03 was - 65.16 [13]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was - 5.62, IH01 was - 7.61, IH02 was - 9.27, and IH03 was - 7.49 [13]. Points Differences and Annualized Costs during Contract Rollovers - The report presents the points differences and annualized costs during contract rollovers for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts, with 15 - minute average data provided for each contract combination such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. [21][23][24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to remain volatile. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization, the current main contradictions are credit contraction and insufficient demand, making it difficult for the index to break through the center and rise significantly. On the other hand, the A - share index will not decline significantly in the short term due to the improvement in corporate profitability in the first half of 2025 and the support of allocation funds [1]. - The bond market is also expected to show a volatile trend. The economic data in June was resilient, but under the care of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital side, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low in the short term. After the bullish factors have been fully interpreted, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 16, the A - share market fluctuated flat, with the Wind All - A rising 0.06% and a turnover of 1.46 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.3%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. The auto and pharmaceutical sectors recovered, while the steel and banking sectors fell. The second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year. However, demand disturbances still exist, and investment continues to decline. The central government emphasizes the construction of a unified national market, but the impact of the "anti - involution" policy needs to consider the transfer mode and scale of central government fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small - cap indices has weakened [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 16, the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 444.6 billion yuan. As of July 16, the weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 in the inter - bank market declined. The export growth rate in June exceeded expectations, and the financial data was strong. However, under the care of monetary policy, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 16, IH decreased by 0.14%, IF decreased by 0.24%, IC decreased by 1.88%, and IM increased by 0.33% [4]. - **Stock Indices**: On July 16, the SSE 50 decreased by 0.23%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.30%, the CSI 500 decreased by 0.03%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 0.30% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 16, TS increased by 0.01%, TF decreased by 0.02%, T decreased by 0.05%, and TL remained unchanged [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On July 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed to varying degrees [4]. 3.3 Market News - The State Council executive meeting listened to the report on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the industry by strengthening cost investigation, price monitoring, and product consistency supervision, and establishing a long - term mechanism for standardizing competition. The meeting also reviewed and approved the draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [6]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures Charts**: The report presents the historical trends of the main contracts of IH, IF, IM, and IC, as well as their basis trends [8][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Charts**: It shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][17][18][19]. - **Exchange Rate Charts**: The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. EIA data showed an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories and a decrease in crude oil inventories. Refinery开工率 was high, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. With the ongoing tariff war and lower - than - expected demand, prices are in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are mainly oscillating following the cost - end crude oil. The LU - FU spread has widened, but there is medium - term supply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil, and short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the adjustment of fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policies is not yet apparent. Short - term supply will decrease, and the market will oscillate narrowly following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The production and sales of polyester yarn are weak, and some devices are starting up or shutting down. The demand - side inventory pressure is significant, and some products are in a loss state [2][4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased in the first half of 2025. The domestic natural rubber inventory increased slightly, and the production increase is being realized [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian devices has recovered, and the arrival volume has increased. Downstream profits have improved, and prices have returned to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The enterprise's operating rate has decreased, demand has not improved significantly, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 8 - month contract closed at $66.38/barrel, down $0.14 or 0.21%. Brent 9 - month contract closed at $68.52/barrel, down $0.19 or 0.28%. SC2508 closed at 517.20 yuan/barrel. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased, while crude oil inventories decreased. The market was disappointed with demand, and prices oscillated weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.45% to 2880 yuan/ton, and the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.47% to 3630 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The market oscillated following crude oil, and short positions can be considered for the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt fell 0.22% to 3623 yuan/ton. The supply will decrease in the short term, and the market will oscillate following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4706 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. EG2509 closed at 4351 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The production and sales of polyester yarn were weak, and prices oscillated weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 105 yuan/ton to 14500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 110 yuan/ton to 12490 yuan/ton. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased, and domestic inventory increased slightly. Rubber prices oscillated weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2382 yuan/ton. Iranian device load recovered, and prices oscillated [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawing was 7020 - 7160 yuan/ton. Supply changes were limited, and prices oscillated narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the upward rebound space was limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA data showed that last week, US gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, and crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels [9]. - Refineries were operating at a high rate, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. After the July 4th holiday, gasoline demand decreased, and the supply of gasoline products decreased by 670,000 barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [11][13][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][34][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][65] - **Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [76]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [78]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the short - term price may have some upward space with large amplitude, but the sustainability of the upward trend is not strong in the medium - to - long term. The new - year high - yield expectation is strong, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. The current fundamental driving factors are limited, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term.密切关注持仓变化 [1] - For sugar, the Indian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 15% compared to the previous season. The domestic spot price is slightly down, and the market is waiting for the June import data and the 9, 1 contract reverse - spread opportunity [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE cotton fell 0.04% to 68.56 cents/pound, CF509 rose 1.16% to 13,990 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions increased by 21,677 lots to 588,400 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang decreased by 71 yuan/ton to 15,215 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 15,272 yuan/ton. The US PPI was flat month - on - month and up 2.3% year - on - year. The new - year high - yield expectation is strong, and the supply - demand is loose. The domestic cotton price has some support but limited new driving factors. The 2025 domestic new - cotton output may exceed 7 million tons, and the demand improvement is difficult in the short term [1] - **Sugar**: The Indian investment and credit rating agency ICRA expects the 2025/26 season sugar production to reach 34 million tons, up 15% from the previous season. The domestic spot quotations are slightly down, and the market is waiting for the June import data and the 9, 1 contract reverse - spread opportunity [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 125 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis is 1,282 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,215 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton; the national spot price is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 166 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis is 272 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The Nanning spot price is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] 3. Market Information - On July 16, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 73 to 9,643, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are: Xinjiang 15,215 yuan/ton, Henan 15,323 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,226 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,508 yuan/ton [3] - On July 16, the yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.3 to 49.9, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained flat at 30.2, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 48.1, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory remained flat at 33.8 [3] - On July 16, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 6,050 yuan/ton and 6,080 yuan/ton respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 313 to 22,289, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts on cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][15] 5. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for sugar, urea, glass, and cotton research respectively, and have rich experience and many honors [20][21][22]