Research Ratings for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures market declined yesterday. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume decreased. Although the current supply - demand situation of rebar has improved, the impact of tariff policies on steel exports will gradually emerge, and the decline in cold - rolled demand may spread to hot - rolled products. There are also rumors about crude steel production cuts, which affect market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract declined yesterday. Supply has increased significantly, while demand, represented by hot metal production, has also risen. With the increase in port and steel mill inventories, and under the influence of long - and short - term factors, the iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to information related to crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market declined yesterday. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation for the May Day holiday has been completed. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and spot purchases are scarce. Although the operating enthusiasm of coking enterprises has slightly increased, their coking coal inventory is sufficient. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more support policies may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market declined yesterday. The production of coking enterprises in the main production areas is normal, and the supply is relatively loose. The steel billet price has dropped, which has put pressure on raw material prices. Although steel mills have a good demand for coke, their profit margins are limited, so they are cautious about coke prices. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more policy support may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore has remained stable recently. It is expected that the silicon manganese futures price will be weak and fluctuate in the short term [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The production profit is still in the red, and the production decline has narrowed. The downstream steel procurement price is falling, and the demand support is limited. The cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 15,300 lots in positions. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The current supply - demand situation has improved, but there are potential negative factors such as tariff policies and production cut rumors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 was 709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 3,000 lots in positions. The supply has increased, and the demand has also risen. The inventory at ports and steel mills has increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 932 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 4,849 lots in positions. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation is completed. Traders are on the sidelines [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. The production of coking enterprises is normal, and the supply is loose. Steel mills are cautious about prices [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The main silicon manganese futures contract was reported at 5758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous day, with an increase of 15,565 lots in positions to 405,400 lots. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The main silicon iron futures contract was reported at 5608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day, with a decrease of 15,383 lots in positions. The production profit is negative, and the demand support is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 28.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was 49.0, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 120.0, an increase of 9.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 99.2, a decrease of 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3220.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 762.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar futures profit was 110.7, a decrease of 22.0 from the previous day; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 110.0, an increase of 2.0 from the previous day [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report provides historical price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][9][10][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][22]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [24][25][29][31][32][34][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It includes the historical spread charts of the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, and silicon manganese and silicon iron [38][39][41][43]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: It provides the historical profit charts of rebar futures, long - process calculation, and short - process calculation [42][44][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Currently serves as the assistant director of the Research Institute of Everbright Futures and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Currently serves as the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Liu Xi**: A master of science, currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [51].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 1.47%，报收 66.56 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 1%，报收 12840 元/ | | | | 吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 2557 手至 57.3 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13982 元 | | | | /吨，较前一日下降 16 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14244 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日增加 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期驱动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数重心上 | 震荡偏 | | | 移，美棉价格震荡走弱，基本面变化有限，持续关注宏观数据。国内市场方面，近 | | | | 期郑棉期价重心小幅下移，基本面支撑稍显不足，但我们认为短期下方空间有限。 | 弱 | | | 一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新棉种植期，国内棉花种植面积 | | | | 较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是对未来国内宏观政策的 | | | | 预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉底部有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of energy - chemical commodities on April 30, 2025, showed price fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For example, oil prices declined significantly due to factors such as increased US crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s potential acceleration of production increases. Other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester also had their own price movements and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On April 30, WTI June contract closed down $1.63 to $60.42 per barrel, a 2.63% decline; Brent June contract closed down $1.61 to $64.25 per barrel, a 2.44% decline; SC2506 closed at 478.0 yuan per barrel, down 10.1 yuan per barrel, a 2.07% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth. OPEC + members may propose to accelerate production increases in June, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. The market priced in the negative impact of accelerated production increases in advance, causing oil prices to fall. The market is expected to be volatile during the May Day holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On April 30, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.26% at 2,969 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2506 closed down 0.86% at 3,456 yuan per ton. It is expected that the reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power - generation demand, but weak procurement demand in April and the arrival of Middle - East supplies at the end of April will put pressure on the market. It is recommended to mainly go long on crack spreads [1]. - **Asphalt**: On April 30, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.53% at 3,430 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, refinery production in May is expected to increase month - on - month as processing profits recover, especially for local refineries. In terms of demand, the northern market demand is gradually being released, and pre - holiday stockpiling is good, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and the sales volume of modified plants has not increased significantly. The short - term absolute price of BU is expected to remain stable, and the previous crack - spread repair strategy can continue to be held, but attention should be paid to the pressure from increased supply [2]. - **Polyester**: On April 30, TA509 closed at 4,440 yuan per ton, down 0.89%; EG2509 closed at 4,187 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. PTA social inventories have been continuously decreasing, and planned maintenance in May is increasing, providing some price support. Ethylene glycol inventories have slightly increased, and due to factors such as postponed maintenance of oil - based units and concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in April, the monthly de - stocking has narrowed. Downstream demand has some support in the short term, but there is a holiday expectation after the May Day holiday, so the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile [2]. - **Rubber**: On April 30, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14,635 yuan per ton; the main 20 - number rubber contract NR closed down 35 yuan per ton to 12,235 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 135 yuan per ton to 11,225 yuan per ton. As of the week ending April 27, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 383,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from the previous week, a 1.30% increase; the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 94,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous period, a 0.85% increase. The total inventory increased by 5,700 tons. Rubber supply is progressing well due to good weather, and downstream enterprises will have more holiday days during the May Day holiday than last year, so the fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [3][4]. - **Methanol**: On April 30, the spot price in Taicang was 2,437 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,155 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $259 - 263 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $337 - 342 per ton. In terms of supply, domestic supply will be stable in the future, and imports will gradually increase, with an expected increase in overall supply. In terms of demand, the maintenance of MTO units has been postponed, and traditional downstream demand changes are relatively limited. It is expected that the total demand in May will remain relatively stable. Overall, supply is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decrease, and the support for spot prices will weaken, with the basis expected to decline [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On April 30, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was between 7,200 - 7,340 yuan per ton. In terms of profits, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 54.14 yuan per ton, the gross profit of coal - based PP production was 795.6 yuan per ton, the gross profit of methanol - based PP production was 936.67 yuan per ton, the gross profit of propane - dehydrogenated PP production was - 868.35 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was - 99.67 yuan per ton. For polyethylene, the mainstream price of HDPE was 7,864 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 8,387 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,828 yuan per ton. The gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was - 125 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,158 yuan per ton. May is the off - season for demand, and downstream enterprise start - up rates will slow down. The light - hydrocarbon production route is greatly affected by import tariffs, and production is expected to decline to some extent. Downstream inventory levels are not high, and rigid demand provides some price support, but due to the high supply level in the past five years, the price increase space is limited, and polyolefin futures are expected to remain narrowly volatile [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On April 30, the market price of PVC in East - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,720 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. The market price in North - China was weakly adjusted, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,740 - 4,820 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,950 - 5,150 yuan per ton. The market price in South - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,830 - 4,950 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,050 yuan per ton. Real - estate construction will enter the off - season, which will reduce the demand for PVC downstream pipes and profiles, and the start - up rate will decline slightly. Exports may also decline as India's BIS certification implementation time approaches. Overall, the PVC fundamentals will be loose in May, inventory pressure will increase, the spot price will be relatively weak, and although the main contract V2509 has peak - season expectations, its upward space is limited due to weak spot prices, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile, with the basis weakening [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on April 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate, as well as the price changes of spot and futures prices and basis changes [7]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth [9]. - OPEC + sources revealed that multiple members may propose to accelerate production increases in June. Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. Analysts believe that OPEC +'s proposal to increase production is a bad timing choice in the current weak market demand environment [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., to show the price trends of these varieties over the years [11]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [25]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including spreads between different contract months, to help analyze the price differences between different contracts [37]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical commodities, such as the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, etc., to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of some energy - chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc., to reflect the profitability of these varieties [63]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research. She is a master from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analysts awards from the Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, serves many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises, and has obtained the senior analyst qualification from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. She is also a regular commentator for media such as First Financial and Futures Daily [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She holds a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy - Chemical Analyst Awards from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst titles from the Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022. She has in - depth research on the energy industry chain and is often interviewed by media such as CCTV Finance and 21st Century Business Herald [70]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She is a master in finance. She has won the "New - Star Analyst" award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from the Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy - Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from the Futures Daily in 2024. She is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. He holds a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), is an intermediate economist, has many years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, and has passed the CFA Level III exam [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, the current market focus has shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not introduce significantly unexpected policies, and fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand remains the main approach. In Q1 2025, China's general public - budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while expenditure increased by 4.2% year - on - year, with the issuance progress of ordinary national bonds reaching 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with previously released GDP and PPI data. Attention should be paid to whether the year - on - year revenue growth rate in A - share listed companies' financial reports matches these data to verify the economic recovery in Q1. The US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long - term impact on the A - share market. In the future, China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the logic of central fiscal promotion of consumption more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be relatively dominant for a long time this year, and for technology themes, sub - sectors such as domestic substitution and high - capital expenditure can be focused on. The view on the stock index is "volatile" [1]. - For national bonds, on the day of the report, the 30 - year main contract of national bond futures rose 0.69%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.23%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120 billion yuan. The money market was balanced, with the DR001 rate falling 5bp to 1.54% and the DR007 rate rising 3bp to 1.78%. The bond market in April first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk - aversion sentiment increased under the influence of tariffs, and the yields of national bonds of all maturities declined rapidly by about 15BP. After the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, and there is little need for an immediate interest - rate cut. Without an interest - rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue strengthening and will continue its current sideways and volatile trend. The view on national bonds is "volatile" [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, IH was at 2,621.2, down 6.8 (-0.26%) from the previous day; IF was at 3,724.8, down 5.8 (-0.16%); IC was at 5,487.2, up 16.2 (0.30%); IM was at 5,773.6, up 44.6 (0.78%) [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On April 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,645.5, down 5.7 (-0.22%) from the previous day; the CSI 300 was at 3,775.1, down 6.5 (-0.17%); the CSI 500 was at 5,604.9, up 6.6 (0.12%); the CSI 1000 was at 5,903.4, up 26.3 (0.45%) [3]. - **National Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, TS was at 102.33, up 0.012 (0.01%) from the previous day; TF was at 106.07, up 0.155 (0.15%); T was at 109.12, up 0.28 (0.26%); TL was at 120.98, up 0.8 (0.67%) [3]. 3.2 Market News - On April 29, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during an inspection in Shanghai that Shanghai should take on the historical mission of building an international science and technology innovation center, seize opportunities, serve national strategies, enhance the source function of scientific and technological innovation and the leading function of high - end industries, and accelerate the construction of a globally influential science and technology innovation high - ground [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. 3.3.2 National Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of national bond futures main contracts, national bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [12][14][16]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the middle rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, as well as the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [19][23][24].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下跌 1.8%，报收 67.56 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.46%，报收 12950 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 1706 手至 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14244 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普消息不断且变向较快， | | | | 美元指数重心先升后降，美棉价格承压下行，持续关注宏观层面变化。国内市场方 | | | | 面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势。展望未来，我们认为短期郑棉下方有一定支 | | | | 撑，原因有以下几点：一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新棉种植 | | | | 期，国内棉花种植面积较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是 | | | | 对未来国内宏观政策的预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.49%至 9405.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.34%至 77630 元/吨；国 内现货进口亏损。宏观方面，美国 4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数-35.8，大幅低于预期 | | | | | | | | 14.1 和前值-16.3，美政府关税引起的动荡在当地制造业开始显现。美国财政部目前预 计，4 月至 6 月期间的净借款将达到 5140 亿美元，高于今年 2 月时预测的 1230 亿美 | | | | | | | | 元，但剔除债务上限影响后不增反降，这或表明美国融资需求实际上正在下降。库存方 | | | | | | | 铜 | 万吨；Comex 库存增加 2873.99 吨至 12.26 万 | | | 面来看，LME 库存下降 650 吨至 20.28 | | | | | | 吨；SMM 全国主流地区铜库存环比上周五下降 2.66 万吨至 15.51 万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the performance of major stock indices on April 28, including their price movements, trading volumes, and the impact of sector fluctuations on these indices. It also provides data on the basis and cost of futures contracts, as well as the points difference and cost of futures contract roll - overs [1][4][13][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On April 28, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3288.41 points, down 0.2%, with a trading volume of 441.916 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9855.2 points, down 0.62%, with a trading volume of 614.393 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 5877.06 points, down 1.05%, with a trading volume of 221.938 billion yuan. The CSI 500 Index closed at 5598.3 points, down 0.51%, with a trading volume of 167.616 billion yuan [1]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2651.23 points, up 0.09%, with a trading volume of 57.671 billion yuan. The SSE 300 Index closed at 3781.62 points, down 0.14%, with a trading volume of 210.635 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Index - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 62.44 points, with sectors such as machinery, basic chemicals, and electronics significantly pulling the index down [4]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 28.88 points, with machinery, electronics, and non - bank finance sectors significantly pulling the index down [4]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 5.37 points. Sectors like banks, household appliances, and utilities pulled the index up, while real estate, non - bank finance, and automotive sectors pulled it down [4]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 2.42 points. Sectors like banks, electronics, and utilities pulled the index up, while coal, real estate, and food and beverage sectors pulled it down [4]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Cost - For the IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 58.89, IM01 was - 158.16, IM02 was - 316.67, and IM03 was - 442.49 [13]. - For the IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 47.14, IC01 was - 134.14, IC02 was - 260.58, and IC03 was - 354.58 [13]. - For the IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 19.19, IF01 was - 52.35, IF02 was - 109.54, and IF03 was - 135.66 [13]. - For the IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was - 5.89, IH01 was - 23.37, IH02 was - 56.54, and IH03 was - 61.01 [13]. Futures Contract Roll - over Points Difference and Annualized Cost - The report provides 15 - minute average data on the points difference and annualized cost of contract roll - overs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts [21][23].

| | 动，仍需减产缓解供需矛盾，预计短期锰硅价格仍低位震荡为主。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5648 元/吨，环比下跌 0.39%，持仓环比下降 12523 手至 | | | | 15.59 万手。昨日黑色板块走势稍有分化，多数商品走势偏弱，硅铁期价重心随之下移。目前硅铁缺乏强 | | | 硅铁 | 有力利好因素支撑，终端需求偏弱是主要影响因素之一，硅铁生产成本虽逐渐下降，但主产区即期生产利 | 低位震荡 | | | 润仍然为负，未来仍需减产缓解供需矛盾，预计短期硅铁期价仍低位震荡为主，关注后续主产区减停产情 | | | | 况。 | | 黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，整体仍有所上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3129 元/吨，较 | 低位整理 | | | 上一交易收盘价格上涨 28 元/吨，涨幅为 0.9%，持仓增加 4.62 万手。现货价格先涨后跌，成交回 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The urea futures market is expected to remain firm before the holiday, with increased market volatility. The supply of urea continues to rise, and the production rate on April 28 was 20.16 million tons, a daily increase of 0.65 million tons. Before the May Day holiday, urea manufacturers are in the process of reducing prices to attract orders, and the sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas has mostly increased to the range of 260% - 410%. However, due to the drought, the agricultural demand in North and Northeast China is progressing slowly, so the sustainability of spot transactions needs to be observed. It is recommended that previous long positions and call options be appropriately closed for profit due to high market uncertainties during the holiday [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market shows a phased rebound, but its sustainability may be tested. In the long - term, the loose pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and the general strategy is to short on rallies. Before the May Day holiday, the replenishment demand of the mid - and downstream has been released, driving the inventory of soda ash plants to decrease by 1.11% compared to last Thursday. The daily operating rate of the industry increased slightly to 89.8% on April 28, but more maintenance devices are expected after the holiday, which will strengthen the support of soda ash supply to the market [1]. - Glass: The trading logic of the glass market will shift from macro - policy expectations to fundamentals. In the short term, some supply - demand indicators of glass have slightly improved, but the industry sentiment remains cautious before more positive factors are realized. The futures market faces difficulties in breaking through upwards and may maintain a wide - range oscillation trend before the holiday. Multiple glass production lines have been shut down or cold - repaired since the weekend, reducing the daily melting volume to 15.72 million tons, which strengthens the support for the market. The demand shows differentiation, with the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe area declining, while those in Hubei, South China, and East China can still maintain around or above 100% [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - Zhengshang Institute data shows that on April 28, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 4,999, a decrease of 49 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 25 [4]. - Longzhong data indicates that on April 28, the daily output of the urea industry was 20.16 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous working day and 1.46 million tons from the same period last year; the industry's operating rate was 87.43%, a 1.07 - percentage - point increase from 86.36% in the same period last year [4]. - On April 28, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 1,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Anhui 1,810 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 1,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Zhengshang Institute data shows that on April 28, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,840, a decrease of 90 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast volume was 2,687; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,441, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On April 28, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: North China, light soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,500 yuan/ton; Central China, light soda ash 1,260 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton; East China, light soda ash 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,450 yuan/ton; South China, light soda ash 1,500 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,550 yuan/ton; Southwest, light soda ash 1,400 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,450 yuan/ton; Northwest, light soda ash 1,100 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash 1,100 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [6]. - Longzhong data shows that on April 28, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 89.8%, compared with 89.05% on the previous working day [7]. - On April 28, the average price of the float glass market was 1,276 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the industry's daily output was 15.72 million tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][12][13][14][17][18][19][20][21][22]. Research Team Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on the sugar industry. She has won many awards in analyst evaluations [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won multiple honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 4 月 2 9 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 2.1 基差：数据 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 763.0 | 760.5 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 52.5 | 51.5 | 1.0 | | I09 | 710.5 | 709.0 | 1.5 | I09-I01 | 26.5 | 26.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 684.0 | 683.0 | 1.0 | I01-I05 | -79.0 | -77.5 | -1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 ...