碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约跌 2.11%至 66960 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 950 元/ 吨至 68850 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂跌 950 元/吨至 67100 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 250 元/吨至 67910 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 250 元/吨至 73055 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓 单库存增加 1052 吨至 32847 吨。 2. 供应端，前期价格连续下挫，低价压力下， 上游陆续有停减产动作，周度产量环比减少 488 吨至 16900 吨，5 月预计整体供应量环比下降，但是需要注意仍然有新增项目投产，且矿山/一体化项目 成本有降幅明显。需求端，需要考虑几个因素，第一，关税问题下市场对后市需求普遍担忧，而同 样 5 月需求环比环比或持平（mysteel）；第二，从下游库存来看，有一定逢低补库动作，下游库存达 到 smm 统计以来的历史最高水平及 4.28 万吨，即便后续需求仍然增长，实 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - On April 28, the US imposed sanctions on three vessels suspected of transporting refined oil to the Houthi armed forces, and large - scale power outages in Europe affected crude oil processing. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, oil price volatility is expected to be high [1] - In May, the reduction of East - West arbitrage arrivals will support the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still exert pressure [2] - In May, asphalt refinery production is expected to increase, and the northern market demand is gradually releasing, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and there is room for further improvement in demand [2] - Near the May Day holiday, the downstream polyester yarn sales have a phased increase, and the polyester start - up load remains high before the holiday. However, there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the PTA and ethylene glycol markets show different trends [2][3][4] - As of April 27, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased. The supply of rubber is advancing, and the downstream holiday days during the May Day holiday are more than last year, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - In May, the supply of methanol is expected to increase, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - In May, the demand for polyolefins is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by import tariffs, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The real - estate construction is entering the off - season, which affects the demand for PVC downstream products. The export may decline, and the PVC price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the basis weakening [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of crude oil futures declined. The US sanctions and European power outages affected the market. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, investors are advised to pay attention to risks and hold light positions [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures rose on Monday. The low - sulfur market is supported by the reduction of arbitrage arrivals, and the high - sulfur market is affected by power generation demand and raw material procurement [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Monday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually releasing but still has room for improvement [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester - related futures rose on Monday. The downstream sales had a phased increase, but there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the inventory and supply of different products vary [2][3][4] - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber - related futures showed different trends on Monday. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, but the downstream holiday days increased, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin futures are in a volatile state. In May, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, and the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by tariffs [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed small changes. The real - estate off - season affects downstream demand, and the export may decline, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on April 29, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - Barclays Bank lowered its 2025 crude oil price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel and set the 2026 forecast at $62 per barrel, citing trade tensions and OPEC+ production strategy adjustments [10] - The US Treasury Department raised the estimate of the net borrowing scale for the second quarter to $514 billion, higher than the February estimate, due to the failure to raise the federal debt ceiling [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1主力合约价格**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2主力合约基差**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, from 2021 - 2025 [24][26][30] - **4.3跨期合约价差**: The report provides the price difference charts between different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [37][39][43] - **4.4跨品种价差**: The report shows the price difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external market, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [55][57][59] - **4.5生产利润**: The report presents the cash - flow and production - profit charts of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [69][70][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market had a slight correction on April 29, 2025, with the Wind All A closing down 0.61% and a trading volume of 1.08 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 300 Indices fell 1.05%, 0.51%, and 0.14% respectively. The market's focus shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not announce significantly unexpected policies, still emphasizing fiscal measures to boost domestic demand. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year-on-year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with China's Q1 GDP (5.4%) and PPI (-2.5% year-on-year). It's necessary to verify the recovery of Q1 economic data by comparing the year-on-year revenue growth of A-share listed companies with these figures. Overseas, the US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long-term impact on the A-share market. China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumption promotion policy more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes related to domestic substitution and high capital expenditure can be monitored [1]. - For treasury bond futures, on April 29, 2025, the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts rose 0.30%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5-year main contract fell 0.06%. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan. In April, the bond market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk aversion sentiment increased due to tariff impacts, causing the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities to decline by about 15 basis points. After the risk aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, and the economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, so there is little need for an immediate interest rate cut. Without an interest rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue rising and will likely maintain a sideways volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On April 29, 2025, the A-share market had a slight correction. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 300 Indices fell 1.05%, 0.51%, and 0.14% respectively. The banking and infrastructure sectors strengthened, while the real estate, automobile, and consumer sectors weakened. The market's focus shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not announce significantly unexpected policies, still emphasizing fiscal measures to boost domestic demand. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year-on-year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with China's Q1 GDP (5.4%) and PPI (-2.5% year-on-year). It's necessary to verify the recovery of Q1 economic data by comparing the year-on-year revenue growth of A-share listed companies with these figures. Overseas, the US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long-term impact on the A-share market. China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumption promotion policy more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes related to domestic substitution and high capital expenditure can be monitored. The overall view on the stock index futures market is that it will remain volatile [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On April 29, 2025, the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose 0.30%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5-year main contract fell 0.06%. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the DR001 rate decreased by 1.96 basis points to 1.5888%, and the DR007 rate increased by 3.59 basis points to 1.7489%. In the exchange repurchase market, the GC001 rate increased by 21.50 basis points to 1.8950%, and the GC007 rate increased by 7 basis points to 1.8450%. In April, the bond market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk aversion sentiment increased due to tariff impacts, causing the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities to decline by about 15 basis points. After the risk aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, and the economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, so there is little need for an immediate interest rate cut. Without an interest rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue rising and will likely maintain a sideways volatile trend [3]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, on April 29, 2025, compared with April 25, 2025, the IH remained unchanged, the IF fell 0.23%, the IC fell 0.50%, and the IM fell 1.00%. For stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, the SSE 300 Index fell 0.14%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.51%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.05%. For treasury bond futures, the TS rose 0.04%, the TF fell 0.02%, the T rose 0.06%, and the TL rose 0.35%. For treasury bond yields, the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields decreased by 0.01, 0.6, 0.9, and 1 basis points respectively [4]. Market News - On April 28, 2025, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Zhao Chenxin, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China will introduce a series of measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development. These measures cover five aspects: supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment. The policies are targeted and operable, aiming to enhance the sense of gain of enterprises and the public, and will be introduced one by one as they mature [5]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of the IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as their respective basis trends, to help analyze the performance of stock index futures [7][8][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates to assist in the analysis of the treasury bond futures market [14][16][18][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and the euro against the Chinese yuan, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies to analyze the exchange rate market [23][24][25][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate may continue to be weak on both sides. If there is no large - scale production halt or reduction, the price outlook remains pessimistic. The supply may decline month - on - month in May due to previous price drops leading to upstream production cuts, but new projects are coming on - stream, and the cost of mines/integrated projects has decreased significantly in the past two quarters. On the demand side, factors such as tariff concerns, high downstream inventory, and the fact that the increase in battery - end demand mainly digests positive electrode inventory rather than drives new production all limit demand growth [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped by 2.8%. Lithium ore and lithium salt prices declined, while cathode material prices showed a mixed trend. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 70,180 yuan/ton to 68,180 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped from 808 dollars/ton to 793 dollars/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Inventory - The weekly lithium carbonate inventory increased by 259 tons to 131,864 tons. Upstream inventory increased by 270 tons to 52,400 tons, inventory in other links decreased by 1,100 tons to 36,641 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,089 tons to 42,823 tons [6][14]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - The document presents charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and other related profits, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [20][21]. 3.4 Production 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - The import volume charts of lithium concentrate from different countries (Brazil, Canada, Australia, etc.) are presented, and the production data of Chinese sample mica + spodumene (LCE) are also shown. For example, in March 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) was 13,420 tons (in lithium carbonate equivalent), and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines was 3,420 tons (in lithium carbonate equivalent) [22][24][26]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 488 tons to 16,900 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 390 tons to 8,743 tons, lithium extraction from lithium mica decreased by 100 tons to 3,527 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 20 tons to 2,923 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling decreased by 18 tons to 1,707 tons [4][6][29]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts of lithium hydroxide production by process, capacity, and import - export are presented, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [43][44]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts of lithium hexafluorophosphate production, export, and monthly operating rate are presented, but no specific numerical summaries are provided [45][46][47]. 3.4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts of waste lithium - battery recycling volume are presented, showing the recycling volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste [51][52]. 3.5 Ternary Precursor and Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 263 tons to 14,195 tons. Charts of production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary precursors and ternary materials are presented [6][56][57]. 3.6 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 3,000 tons to 94,110 tons. Charts of lithium iron phosphate operating rate, capacity, production, and cost are presented [6][59]. 3.7 Other Materials - Charts of the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide are presented [60][61]. 3.8 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells increased by 7.9% to 24.98 GWh. Among them, lithium iron - based cells increased by 10.7% to 17.37 GWh, and ternary cells increased by 1.9% to 7.61 GWh [6][63]. 3.9 Lithium Batteries - Charts of lithium battery production, installation volume, and inventory by type (iron - lithium, ternary, etc.) are presented [66][67][69][71]. 3.10 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From April 1 - 20, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles from manufacturers was 530,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.378 million units, a year - on - year increase of 39% [4][6][72]. 3.11 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts of the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors are presented [75][80][82]. 3.12 Options - Charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes of lithium carbonate are presented [85][88][89].

光期研究 2 0 2 5年5月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：检修损失量继续落实，终端放假情绪浓厚 p 2 | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：跟随原油价格震荡 | | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：关注装置检修落实情况 | | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：全球贸易担忧情绪浓厚 | | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游原料库存高位 | | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求表现不及预期 | | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | | p 3 1.1 价格： PX&PTA&MEG期货价格 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 2022/01/03 2023/01/03 2024/01/03 2025/01/03 ...

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, May 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Based on the logic of marginal oversupply and a downward - moving cost center, it is advisable to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption rhythm in the southwest on alumina inventory dynamics. The macro - risk pricing ratio remains relatively high due to the vacillating US attitude towards tariffs on China and the possible shift in Fed policies. Aluminum demand lacks resilience after a slow decline, and inventory may reach an inflection point for accumulation. Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with the spread between June and September having room to converge. Attention should be paid to the effects of domestic stimulus policies, tariff dynamics, and the resumption progress in Yunnan [3]. Summary by Directory Price - In April, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,846 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 3.1%. Shanghai aluminum also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20,030 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 2.2% [5]. Spread - In April, the alumina shifted from a premium of 146 yuan/ton to a premium of 26 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum shifted from par to a discount of 10 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in April, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina decreased to 8,288 tons, with a production of 7.17 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased to 4,390 tons, with a production of 3.57 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The molten aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73% [3][5]. Demand - As the peak season is approaching its end, the cable sector is showing a late - stage boost while other sectors are gradually weakening. In April, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25% compared to March. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 1.85% to 68.65%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 2.14% to 73.43%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.75% to 58.88%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 5.7% to 62.2%. The processing fees of aluminum rods increased across the board by 100 - 250 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of aluminum bars were stable with some increases, with Wuxi remaining stable and other regions increasing by 20 - 160 yuan/ton [3][5]. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory, in April, alumina inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 236,900 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 42,800 tons to 190,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 53,000 tons to 423,600 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 55,000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 169,000 tons to 658,000 tons; aluminum bar inventory decreased by 94,200 tons to 177,800 tons [3][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the delayed demand for urea is expected to be released, and the futures and spot prices have the potential to rebound further, but the upside of the futures price should not be overly optimistic. The long - term loose pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and the glass market needs more favorable drivers for a trend - upward movement [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - **Futures Prices**: As of April 25, the main contract of urea decreased by 4.51%, soda ash by 4.55%, and glass by 8.79% [11] - **Futures - related Varieties**: In April, the prices of related futures varieties showed a weak trend [16] - **Coal Prices**: The prices of some coal varieties such as Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal and Shaanxi Yulin bituminous coal decreased, while the price of Yangquan anthracite washed small pieces increased [17] - **LNG Prices**: The LNG ex - factory prices in some regions in China showed different degrees of change, with an increase in Inner Mongolia Sentai and a decrease in Shaanxi Hancheng [20] - **Raw Salt Prices**: In April, the prices of raw salt in most regions decreased slightly [22] - **Synthetic Ammonia Prices**: The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 5.69% in April [23] 3.2 Urea: Delayed Demand Expected to be Released in May, Focus on Realization Intensity - **Prices**: In April, the urea futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price declined after reaching a phased high. As of April 25, the main 09 - contract closed at 1757 yuan/ton, and the prices in Shandong and Henan were 1830 yuan/ton and 1820 yuan/ton respectively [5] - **Supply**: In April, the urea supply fluctuated at a high level. As of April 25, the daily output was 19.30 tons, a 1.13% decrease from the end of March. There is an expectation of increased supply in May [5] - **Inventory**: In April, the urea inventory rebounded from the bottom. As of April 24, the enterprise inventory was 106.5 tons, a 22.72% increase from the end of March [5] - **Demand**: In April, the urea demand was lower than expected. The delayed demand in April may be released in May. The production levels of some downstream industries such as compound fertilizers decreased [5] - **International Market and Exports**: In April, the international urea price increased, but China's exports were still restricted. The export data in March was only 0.23 tons, a 45% year - on - year decrease [5] 3.3 Soda Ash: Market Sentiment Recovered Temporarily, Long - term Loose Pattern Remains Unchanged - **Prices**: In April, the soda ash futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price was weakly adjusted. As of April 25, the main 09 - contract closed at 1365 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: Since late March, the soda ash supply has been increasing. As of the week of April 24, the industry's operating rate was 89.44%, and the production was 75.51 tons, a 9.4% increase from the end of March [6] - **Inventory**: In April, the soda ash enterprise inventory fluctuated narrowly. As of April 24, the inventory was 169.10 tons, a slight 0.33% increase from the end of March [6] - **Demand**: In April, the rigid demand for soda ash recovered. The downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass had changes in production capacity, and the weekly apparent consumption increased by 3.66% to 77.54 tons [6] - **Imports and Exports**: In March, the import volume of soda ash decreased by 41.71% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 28.34% month - on - month [6] 3.4 Glass: Fundamental Drivers Still Insufficient, Focus on Policy Intensity - **Prices**: In April, the glass futures price fluctuated downward, and the spot price rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom. As of April 25, the main 09 - contract closed at 1121 yuan/ton, and the domestic average price of float glass was 1280 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: In April, the glass supply fluctuated at a low level year - on - year. As of April 25, the daily melting volume was 15.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the end of March [8] - **Inventory**: In April, the glass enterprise inventory decreased slightly. As of the week of April 24, the inventory was 6547.3 million weight boxes, a 2.3% decrease from the end of March, still 9.25% higher year - on - year [8] - **Demand**: In April, the glass demand sentiment recovered temporarily. The downstream orders and operating rates continued to recover but at a slow pace [8] - **Terminal and Policy**: From January to March, the cumulative year - on - year decline of some real - estate indicators narrowed. Domestic real - estate and consumption - promotion policies are expected to support the glass market, but the implementation time and intensity need verification [9]

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 p 2 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 总 结 供应端：国内新棉播种进入尾声，预计种植面积同比小幅增加，但增幅或低于此前市场预期，美棉播种进度加速，目前看干旱影响未完全消失，预计新年度中美棉花产 量均同比下降。 1、USDA3月末种植意向报告显示，预计2025年美棉播种面积为986.7万英亩，同比下降近12%，基本符合市场预期，但由于弃种率预计下调，因此最终产量预计变化不 大。我们认为美棉产量高估。2、截止4月20日，美国棉花播种进度11%，持平往年同期水平。3、国内新棉播种中，新疆大部分地区已经播种完毕，东疆和南疆部分棉区 已经出苗。4、据中国棉花市场监测系统，2025年我国棉花意向种植面积4376.3万亩，同比增加1.5%，增幅较上次预测环比下降0.3个百分点；其中新疆地区棉花意向种 植面积3890.4万亩，同比增加2.6%。 需求端：国内纺织企业开 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Southwest's hydropower-rich season with lower electricity prices will drive production resumption, weakening the effect of northwest production cuts. Meanwhile, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is limited. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue to bottom out in May, with the lower support coming from the cash cost line of large Xinjiang manufacturers and the upper pressure from high inventory and marginal increments. - In May, the adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production is high, and the one - way decline space is limited. It will mainly show weak range - bound fluctuations, and opportunities for the convergence of near - and far - month price spreads can be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies are newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In April, polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 25th, the main contract 2506 closed at 39,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 11.67%. Industrial silicon futures also fluctuated weakly. As of the 25th, the main contract 2506 closed at 8,865 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.73% [5]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices continued to decline. The Baichuan reference price was 10,178 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 502 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 9,350 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, and 421 decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Price Spreads - In April, the price spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products remained stable, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 widened. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount to a premium of 2,110 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot discount narrowed to 65 yuan/ton [5][17]. 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, the estimated domestic industrial silicon production in April was 290,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%. The monthly number of open furnaces decreased by 15 to 219, and the furnace opening rate decreased by 1.88% to 27.48%. In the north, large manufacturers in Xinjiang started maintenance, with 9 new furnace shutdowns in Xinjiang, 2 in Gansu, and 3 in Inner Mongolia. In the southwest, there was no change in the operation in Yunnan, and 2 furnaces were ignited in Sichuan silicon plants. In other regions, one furnace was shut down each in Ningxia, Shaanxi, Henan, and Liaoning [3][5]. 3.5 Demand - In April, polysilicon production decreased by 6,000 tons to 96,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%. The production of DMC increased by 10,800 tons to 167,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% and a month - on - month increase of 6.9%. The monthly price of P - type polysilicon remained stable at 33,800 yuan/ton, while the N - type decreased by 20,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton. The terminal rush - to - install subsided, the component market cooled down rapidly, downstream surplus materials were abundant, order delivery periods were postponed, and the pre - May Day stocking volume was low. The monthly price of organic silicon decreased significantly by 2,500 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers maintained a wait - and - see attitude during the tariff turmoil, with weak purchasing power. New orders from monomer plants were still mainly for essential and small - volume needs, and the overall inventory pressure increased significantly. Subsequently, they may return to the state of shutdown and maintenance [3][5]. 3.6 Inventory - On the exchange side, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 435 tons to 348,400 tons in April, while polysilicon inventory increased to 300,000 tons. In the social inventory, industrial silicon inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 409,100 tons, among which factory inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 244,100 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 52,000 tons, Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 65,000 tons, and Kunming Port's inventory remained stable at 48,000 tons. Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3,800 tons to 26,770 tons [3][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].