| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 玉米现货报价偏强运行，周末东北玉米价格偏强运行为主，东北深加工玉米收购 价格上涨对行情仍有一定的支撑，基层农户惜售情绪较为明显。 周末山东玉米 供应市场，短期市场情绪看涨预期较强，预计随着本地粮源供应量逐渐增加，华 | 震荡上涨 | | | 周一，玉米近月 2601 和 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价当日下探后尾盘收复部分失地。 | | | | 价格整体维持稳定，部分企业玉米价格有涨有跌，调整范围有限。东北粮源持续 | | | | 北玉米供应紧张的局面有望得到缓解。 周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口 | | | | 贸易商报价保持高位，但市场整体购销活跃度一般，高价成交偏少。下游饲料厂 | | | | 观望心态为主，维持 30-40 天安全头寸滚动补库。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强 | | | | 势表现，期价震荡调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动 | | | | 态止盈。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收跌，因市场关注出口销售数据。USDA 检验报告显示，美豆 口销售报告显示，截至 10 月 2 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约 2605 合约涨 0.56%至 96940 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价 上涨 600 元/吨至 94350 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 600 元/吨至 91900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化 锂（粗颗粒）上涨 400 元/吨至 82480 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 2781 吨至 8222 吨。 2. 消息面，江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿非油气采矿权变更登记(含续期)进入受理阶段。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比减少 265 吨至 21865 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 20 吨至 13364 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 50 吨至 3021 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 400 吨至 3225 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 65 吨至 2245 吨；据 SMM 数据，12 月预计供应环比增加 3%至 9.8 万吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比 增加 259 吨至 19261 吨，库存环比增加 71 吨至 1936 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, with rumors of Fed chair changes and large fluctuations in the US dollar index. The fundamentals have both long and short factors, and the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile. In the domestic market, the recent strong trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures is driven by macro - level good news, stable cotton demand, and limited annual supply - demand pressure. Although there is a large short - term supply pressure, it will gradually weaken, and the cotton price center may move up slightly in December. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options on the 05 contract with a lower degree of out - of - the - money [2]. - For sugar, after the release of Thailand's lower - than - expected sugarcane purchase price, the futures price has been deeply adjusted. The northern hemisphere's production is not expected to change significantly, and the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil provides support. The sugar price is expected to be in a volatile bottom - building phase. In the domestic market, with 39 sugar mills in Guangxi starting production, the supply has increased, and the spot price continues to be under pressure. The January contract is expected to be volatile, and the May contract will be under medium - term pressure [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.11% to 64.64 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.44% to 13,765 yuan per ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 1,675 lots to 546,900 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,570 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan per ton from the previous day [2]. - **Sugar**: Thailand announced the 2025/26 national unified sugarcane benchmark price. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi is 5,480 - 5,650 yuan per ton, with some prices down 30 - 100 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, it is 5,320 - 5,480 yuan per ton, down 10 - 20 yuan per ton; the mainstream price of processed sugar is 5,750 - 5,900 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 40 yuan with no change, the main contract basis is 1,171 yuan with no change. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,763 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,936 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 70 yuan, down 6 yuan; the main contract basis is 160 yuan, down 35 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,470 yuan per ton with no change, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,565 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On December 1, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,403, 5 less than the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 2,147. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,763 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,950 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,982 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,122 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.1, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.2, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.7, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.3, up 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On December 1, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,470 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,565 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and relevant price indices, with data sources from Wind and the research institute of Everbright Futures [7][15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply is at a high level with the daily output of 19.9 million tons on December 1st, a daily decrease of 0.44 million tons. Demand shows regional differences, with sales - to - production ratios ranging from 70% - 95% to 120% - 150% in different areas. The start - up rate of gas - based enterprises and demand will continue to compete, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of gas - based enterprises, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. - The soda ash market is expected to have a bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is gradually recovering with the industry's start - up rate reaching 80.65% on December 1st, a daily increase of 5 percentage points. Demand is mixed, with some downstream having low - price restocking needs, but the declining capacity of float glass is not conducive to rigid demand. The market needs more drivers for a trend change, and attention should be paid to production levels, product - output rhythm from Alxa, downstream purchasing rhythm, and related market trends [1]. - The glass market is expected to have a short - term bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is decreasing with the daily output dropping to 15.5 million tons on December 1st, and there are still plans for cold - repair of production lines. Demand remains positive but with a slightly weakened amplitude, and the sales - to - production ratio is in the range of 90% - 100%. Attention should be paid to the decline in supply, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On December 1st, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 7,937, an increase of 350 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 762 [4]. - On December 1st, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to the same period last year. The start - up rate was 82.28%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase compared to 81.61% in the same period last year [4]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of small - particle urea in different regions were: Shandong 1,690 yuan/ton (+20), Henan 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton (+30), Anhui 1,680 yuan/ton (+30), Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), and Shanxi 1,550 yuan/ton (+20) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 1st, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,529, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,018. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided, such as North China (light 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy 1,300 yuan/ton), Central China (light 1,150 yuan/ton, heavy 1,250 yuan/ton), etc. [6]. - On December 1st, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.65%, compared to 75.27% on the previous working day [7]. - On December 1st, the average price of the float glass market was 1,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 15.5 million tons, a daily decrease of 0.22 million tons [7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and between different commodities such as urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][10][18][19] Research Team Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [22]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties like cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant titles [22].

黑色商品日报 二、日度数据监测 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3134 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 24 元/吨，涨幅为 0.77%，持仓减少 8.97 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 30 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 12.5 万吨。 | | | | 据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 4.23%至 436.45 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.01%至 231.98 万吨，建材库存 | | | | 降幅扩大，热卷库存由降转增。生态环境部通报中央第三生态环境保护督察组督察河北省发现，唐山市违 | | | | 规上马钢铁项目、新增钢铁产能，部分企业违法排污问题突出，大气污染防治存在短板。受此影响，市场 | | | | 对于钢铁、焦化供应端收缩预期增强，对价格走势形成一定提振。不过当前市场已转入消费淡季，市场对 ...

Index Trends - On December 1st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to close at 3914.01 points, with a trading volume of 785.658 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.25% to close at 13146.72 points, with a trading volume of 1088.279 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.72%, with a trading volume of 392.32 billion yuan, opening at 7356.51, closing at 7386.68, with a daily high of 7388.62 and a low of 7342.6 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.0%, with a trading volume of 308.534 billion yuan, opening at 7053.85, closing at 7101.83, with a daily high of 7101.83 and a low of 7040.8 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.81%, with a trading volume of 112.813 billion yuan, opening at 2975.27, closing at 2993.68, with a daily high of 2994.45 and a low of 2972.79 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.1%, with a trading volume of 463.862 billion yuan, opening at 4539.19, closing at 4576.49, with a daily high of 4576.97 and a low of 4531.29 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 52.47 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 70.28 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 49.83 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - ferrous metals, and communication sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 24.06 points from the previous close, with non - ferrous metals, electronics, and banking sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 80.52, IM01 was - 155.83, IM02 was - 313.92, and IM03 was - 554.48 [13]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 57.52, IC01 was - 113.43, IC02 was - 230.5, and IC03 was - 439.6 [13]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 19.24, IF01 was - 34.79, IF02 was - 54.29, and IF03 was - 102.8 [13]. - IH00 average daily basis was - 8.15, IH01 was - 12.89, IH02 was - 14.48, and IH03 was - 25.92 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC, data such as IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, IC00 - 03, IC01 - 02, IC01 - 03, and IC02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000905.SH index [22]. - For IF, data such as IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, IF00 - 03, IF01 - 02, IF01 - 03, and IF02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000300.SH index [22]. - For IH, data such as IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, IH00 - 03, IH01 - 02, IH01 - 03, and IH02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000016.SH index [24]. - For IM, data such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, IM00 - 03, IM01 - 02, IM01 - 03, and IM02 - 03 point differences and their corresponding annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, along with the value of the 000852.SH index [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices were strong, hitting record highs. The US manufacturing PMI in November was below expectations, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in December, which could affect global liquidity. Domestically, the estimated copper production in December is expected to increase, but demand has slowed due to high prices. With the Fed's December rate - cut fully priced in, there is uncertainty about whether the macro - environment can remain optimistic, and the price's continued rise is also uncertain [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. The expected environmental restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and复产 increased. High - price aluminum led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and inventory decreased. However, with the end of new energy vehicle purchase tax promotions and the completion of State Grid orders, the possibility of aluminum prices hitting new highs this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices fell slightly, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain was weak. In the new energy industry chain, raw materials were tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, one can consider buying at low prices, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was weak, and the BOJ's potential rate - hike may impact liquidity. Domestic production is expected to increase in December, but demand is sluggish. Inventory changes vary in different markets. The sustainability of price increases is uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures prices trended strongly, while spot prices had mixed performance. The non - occurrence of environmental restrictions and new production affected supply expectations. Demand was released in the short - term, but future growth is limited [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Futures prices rose, and inventory pressure increased. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry was weak, and the new energy industry faced a decline in precursor output. Consider buying at low prices with caution [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 89,195 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan from November 28. LME inventory remained unchanged, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE total inventory decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased [8]. - **Tin**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 2.1%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [8]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [10][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metals research and have won many industry awards [52][53].

Report Information - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Futures Contract Prices**: I05 closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 752.5 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; I01 closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan [3]. - **Contract Spreads**: The I05 - I09 spread was 25.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was -48.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [3]. 2. Basis Data - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of Carajás fines increased by 3 yuan to 48 yuan/ton, while the basis of BRBF decreased by 7 yuan to 55 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Policy Adjustments - **Increased Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties were added, including Bengang concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton starting from the I2202 contract [11]. - **Adjusted Brand Premiums**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton [11]. - **Modified Quality Premiums**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium and discount rules for quality differences were also detailed [11]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Spread Changes**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties also changed. For example, the spread between Carajás fines and Newman fines increased by 5 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, while the spread between PB fines and BRBF decreased by 4 yuan to 31 yuan/ton [13]. Research Team - **Team Members**: The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shifted focus to fundamental logic after the liquidity-driven rally since June. New productive forces led by AI, especially the upstream hardware manufacturing in the technology sector, have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, but the relevant themes have seen large gains since June and are in a volatile phase approaching the year - end. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume and volatility are decreasing, and risk appetite is falling, so the index is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - The central bank's operations have led to a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market shows a "good news exhausted" situation, with treasury bond yields rising slightly and the yield curve steepening. In December, with loose funds but weak expectations of interest - rate cuts, a marginally weakening but resilient economy, and mild inflation recovery, the treasury bond market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market trended upward on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3,900 points. Stocks generally rose, and trading volume was close to 1.89 trillion yuan. After the liquidity rally since June, the market focuses on fundamentals. AI - related themes have optimistic growth expectations but are in a volatile state due to lack of catalysts. Traditional sectors are in a slow recovery. The index is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.08%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.12%, 0.1%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market shows a "good news exhausted" situation, and is expected to fluctuate narrowly in December [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From November 28 to December 1, 2025, IH rose 23.2 points (0.78%), IF rose 49.6 points (1.10%), IC rose 57.4 points (0.82%), and IM rose 29.2 points (0.40%) [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 rose 24.1 points (0.81%), the CSI 300 rose 49.8 points (1.10%), the CSI 500 rose 70.3 points (1.00%), and the CSI 1000 rose 52.5 points (0.72%) [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.034 points (0.03%), TF rose 0.095 points (0.09%), T rose 0.1 points (0.09%), and TL fell 0.12 points (- 0.10%) [3] Market News - **Model Release**: DeepSeek announced the release of two official models, DeepSeek - V3.2 and DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale. DeepSeek - V3.2 is suitable for daily use, while DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale aims to maximize reasoning ability [5] - **Housing Price**: In November, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, up 0.37% month - on - month and 2.68% year - on - year. Prices in first - tier cities rose 0.75% month - on - month and 6.66% year - on - year, in second - tier cities rose 0.36% month - on - month and 1.89% year - on - year, and in third - and fourth - tier cities fell 0.18% month - on - month and 1.55% year - on - year [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The section includes charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The section contains charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][14][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The section presents charts of the central parity rates, forward exchange rates, and currency indices of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB [21][22][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall driving force of oil prices is limited, and they will continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are also expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [1][2][4][5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices moved higher. WTI January contract closed up $0.77 to $59.32 per barrel, a 1.32% increase; Brent February contract closed up $0.79 to $63.17 per barrel, a 1.27% increase; SC2601 closed at 453.6 yuan per barrel, up 0.2 yuan per barrel, a 0.04% increase. OPEC and 8 major non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the production plan set in early November and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The current global economic outlook is relatively stable, and the oil market fundamentals are sound. Overall, the driving force of oil prices is limited, and they will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.36% to 2495 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 0.89% to 3053 yuan per ton. The closure of the East - West arbitrage window is expected to reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory of blending raw materials for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel around Singapore is sufficient, and the inflow of low - sulfur fuel oil from Southeast Asia is increasing. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to face a situation of sufficient supply. The attitude towards oil prices in December is relatively pessimistic, and the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the overseas refined oil market on the relative strength of high - and low - sulfur markets [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.44% to 2990 yuan per ton. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. The total domestic asphalt supply was expected to be 2.53 million tons, a 15.2% month - on - month decrease, and the domestic downstream consumption was 2.74 million tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease. In December, the supply will further decrease, but the decline may be relatively limited. The demand in the northern region will drop to a low level, and the winter storage demand will gradually start. The current social inventory is slightly higher than the same period last year, with a certain inventory pressure. In the short term, the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4762 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 1.32%; EG2601 closed at 3882 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The inventory of the East China main port area for MEG on December 1 was about 753,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase from the previous period. The downstream demand at the end of the year is gradually weakening, but the polyester start - up still has resilience, and the high - level maintenance power is insufficient. The PX price is expected to be under pressure at the end of the year. The TA price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to adjust widely [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 160 yuan per ton to 15250 yuan per ton. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 10 months were 1.43 million tons, a 6% year - on - year increase, and exports to China were 336,000 tons, a 135% year - on - year increase. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 12,600 tons from the previous period. The rubber market has weak supply and demand fundamentals, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tapping in southern Thailand and the registration of new RU warehouse receipts [5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2118 yuan per ton. In December, the domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. The port inventory is expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year, driving the methanol price to rebound, but it is expected to have an upper limit, showing a short - term fluctuating and strengthening trend. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins [5][7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6320 - 6500 yuan per ton. In December, the number of newly - added maintenance enterprises will decrease, and the supply will further increase. The downstream demand will gradually weaken, and the market is expected to maintain rigid procurement. In December, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, but the futures price is expected to bottom - fluctuate if the crude oil price remains relatively stable [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market price in East China fluctuated and sorted out. In December, the enterprise maintenance is at a low ebb, and the production will continue to increase. The demand from the real - estate construction for PVC downstream pipes and profiles is limited, and the downstream start - up is expected to continue to decline. The PVC price may tend to bottom - fluctuate [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the daily data monitoring of various energy - chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC and 8 major non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to maintain the production plan set in early November and suspend production increases in Q1 2026 due to seasonal factors. The current global economic outlook is relatively stable, and the oil market fundamentals are sound [11]. - The remarks of US President Trump about closing Venezuela's airspace increased geopolitical uncertainties. Venezuela accused the US of attempting to control its oil reserves by force, which would pose a serious threat to the stability of the international energy market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [13][14][15][16][17][20][22][24][27][28][29][30] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of multiple products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [31][32][37][39][41][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents the spread charts between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50][53][55][57][59] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, including the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [62][64][66][74] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The production profit charts of LLDPE and PP are provided [71] 3.5 Team Members Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the analyst of crude oil, natural gas, etc. Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, honors, and professional qualifications introduced [76][77][78][79] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax number is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [81]