| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 मोहि | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 1150 华北报价 | | 1150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 1230 | | 1230 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 1140 | | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 1240 | | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 玻璃2505 | 1312 | 1329 | -17 | -1.28% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1389 | 1398 | -d | -0.64% | | | 05基米 | -162 | -179 | 17 | 9.50% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 张联幅 | 单位 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Recent PP production decline due to losses in PDH and external propylene routes, leading to unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction. PE maintenance has reached a peak, with increasing开工 and de - stocking of mid - upstream inventory this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and future supply rhythm and import offers need attention. Currently, the 01 contract faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, limiting upward space [2]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, weakening market sentiment and prices, with a slight weakening of the basis. On the supply - demand side, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. Port arrivals are still high, with large inventory accumulation and weakening transactions. Overall valuation is neutral. The market is oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [4]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: Recently, some plants have restarted or produced products, and maintenance plans have been postponed, keeping supply at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There are planned and unplanned production cuts in styrene plants from September to October, weakening demand support. The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in September remains loose, with weak price drivers. In the short term, price trends are affected by geopolitical and macro factors. - Styrene: Driven by peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, overall demand is okay but with limited growth. On the supply side, due to inventory and profit pressure, more plants have stopped or reduced production, and some have cut production due to accidents. With overseas plant maintenance, styrene export expectations have increased, reducing supply expectations. Port inventory has accumulated, pressuring styrene prices. In the short term, styrene may be affected by oil - price geopolitical situations and reduced concerns about supply increments. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for EB11 and widening the EB11 - BZ11 spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that market concerns about immediate supply surplus have eased, and geopolitical risk premiums have resurfaced. Specifically, the deadlock in the oil - export agreement in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has dispelled the expectation of about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, triggering a key rebound after the previous oil - price decline and supporting the near - month spread. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and NATO's tough stance have increased the risk of supply disruption of Russian refined products such as diesel, pushing up the crack spread and supporting crude oil from both sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although macro - level reports such as those from the International Energy Agency still point to a loose supply situation, short - term geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential increases in US crude - oil inventory. In the short term, oil prices are expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to conduct band - trading on a single - side basis, with the WTI trading range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after volatility increases [32]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices have been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains above 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing supply pressure. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in compound - fertilizer plant开工. Although there are some export - port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. Market confidence is lacking, and continuous inventory accumulation further suppresses the futures price, lacking substantial positive drivers [37]. Polyester Industry - PX: Recent increases in PX supply are obvious due to the capacity increase from short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of maintenance of some domestic PX plants. On the demand side, due to low PTA processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken further, with an expected compression of the PXN spread. In terms of absolute price, the attack on Russian oil - distribution facilities by Ukraine has boosted short - term oil prices, which may support PX in the short term. Strategies include short - term long - positions on PX11 or short - selling on price rebounds. - PTA: Due to low processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans, reducing supply expectations. However, the peak - season performance of downstream industries is average, and the spot basis of PTA has been weakly running. In terms of absolute price, short - term oil - price increases may support PTA. Strategies include short - term long - positions or short - selling on price rebounds for TA, and a rolling reverse - spread strategy for TA1 - 5. - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, ethylene - glycol imports in September are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decrease this month, keeping port inventory at a low level. However, the terminal market is currently weak, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, as the Yulong Petrochemical plant has increased its load to 60% - 70%, the Satellite Petrochemical plant will restart in October, and demand will decline seasonally in the fourth quarter. Ethylene glycol will enter an inventory - accumulation phase, facing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of plant commissioning and restart. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 on price increases and a reverse - spread strategy for EG1 - 5. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, short - fiber supply has remained high. On the demand side, although it is the peak - season of "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream industries have restocking demand before the National Day, new orders for gray fabrics are limited, and this year's peak - season performance is average. Short - fiber prices are supported at low levels, but the upward - rebound driving force is weak, and the price movement follows raw - material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Recently, some bottle - grade polyester chip plants have restarted while others have stopped production, with overall production capacity remaining basically unchanged. As the price has dropped to the lowest level of the year and there is rigid restocking demand before the National Day, downstream industries and traders are replenishing inventory at low prices, supporting the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips and reducing inventory. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose. PR prices follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the upward space of the processing fee is limited. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more production cuts in bottle - grade polyester chip plants and the downstream follow - up situation. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee of the PR main - contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [40][41]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. Supply has increased this week, and the开工 rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, recent continuous declines in domestic and overseas alumina prices have narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and cautious downstream purchasing, inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, enterprises with maintenance and load - reduction devices have not yet resumed, resulting in tight supply. Non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid need, and inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, it will take time to release short - term local caustic - soda inventory. With the current high - level supply and poor sales in the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. Previously, short - selling was recommended, and short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many plants will end maintenance next week, with expected production increases. On the demand side, the开工 rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed inventory replenishment, being resistant to high prices and having average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw - material calcium carbide has been rising, and the ethylene price has remained stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined on September 23 compared to September 22. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, while that of PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as a 0.28% decline in the price of North China LDPE film stock [2]. - **开工 and Inventory**: PE plant开工 rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 tons. PP plant开工 rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, while PP powder开工 rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%. Downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 tons, and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 tons [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, MA2601 futures price decreased by 0.21%, and MA2509 increased by 0.17%. The MA91 spread decreased by 60.00%. Spot prices of different regions showed different changes, such as a 0.73% increase in the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot and a 0.44% decrease in the price of Taicang port spot [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048 tons, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8 tons [4]. - **开工 Rates**: The domestic upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 72.66%, and the overseas upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%. The downstream external - MTO device开工 rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08%, while the fatty - acid开工 rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3% [4]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6%, and WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2%. CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4%, while CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%. The pure - benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.6%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The latest styrene spot price in East China decreased by 1.0%. EB2510, EB2511 futures prices also declined. The EB basis (10) increased by 33.3%, and the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 112.5%. EB non - integrated and integrated cash flows both decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 tons from September 15 to September 22, while styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 tons [12]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian pure - benzene开工 rate remained unchanged at 79.0%. The domestic pure - benzene开工 rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, while the domestic hydrogenated - benzene开工 rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%. The styrene开工 rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4% [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, Brent increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI decreased by 0.54% to 63.15 dollars/barrel, and SC decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82%, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65%, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% [32]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars/ton. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94%, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40%, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% [32]. - **Refined - Product Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined products showed different changes. For example, the US gasoline crack spread increased by 1.10%, while the European diesel crack spread decreased by 0.90% [32]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, the 01 - contract futures price of urea decreased by 0.12%, and the 05 - contract remained unchanged. The price difference between the 01 - contract and 05 - contract decreased by 3.77% [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic daily urea production increased by 1.82% to 19.56 tons on September 19 compared to September 18. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 2.36% to 133.00 tons, and the weekly domestic urea plant - inventory increased by 2.88% to 113.27 tons [37]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 23, the prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products changed. POY150/48 cash flow increased by 134.9%, while FDY150/96 cash flow decreased by 19.3% [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6% on September 23. The PX basis (11) decreased by 57.7%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3.3% [40]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian PX开工 rate decreased by 0.8% to 78.2%, the Chinese PX开工 rate decreased by 1.5% to 86.3%, and the PTA开工 rate remained unchanged at 76.8% [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic - Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 23, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged, while Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 2.4%. The market price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.8% [45]. - **Caustic - Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of East China ports increased by 1.3% to 400 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit increased by 3723.4% to 223.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price remained unchanged at 650 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit decreased by 266.4% to - 22.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **Supply:

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 | | | | 十六按 | Z0019938 | | 田 | | | | | | | | | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8620 | 8620 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8366 | 8328 | 38 | 0.46% | | 基差 | Y2601 | 254 | 292 | -38 | -13.01% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+220 | 01+210 | 10 | ﺗ | | 仓单 | | 25644 | 25644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9270 | 9300 | -30 | -0.32% | | 期价 | P2601 | 9360 | 9316 | 44 | 0.47% ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The temporary exemption of grain export tariffs in Argentina, combined with the disappointment from the China-US talks and the expected decline in high-frequency palm oil exports, has a strong short - term impact on the market, causing a significant correction in the domestic futures market. In the long - term, it is difficult to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental variables need to be focused on [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Reaction - Argentina's decision to cancel export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products from September 22nd to October 31st to ease the shortage of US dollar supply has led to a decline in the Chicago soybean oil futures to the lowest level since mid - June. The main contracts of domestic soybean and palm oil futures once fell to 8018 and 8946 points, with declines of 3.91% and 4.06% respectively [1]. Driving Factors - **Argentina's Export Tax Adjustment**: Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third - largest soybean producer. The cancellation of export taxes intensifies competition in the international soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal markets. Throughout 2025, different export tax adjustments in Argentina have had various impacts on the market. For example, on January 27th, the market expected an export surge and potential increase in soybean production, but the domestic market rose due to other factors. On July 26th, the permanent tax reduction led to a slight downturn in the market [4][5]. - **China - US Talks**: The much - anticipated phone call between the US and Chinese leaders did not bring new information on agricultural product trade. China, as the world's largest soybean importer and the main export destination for US soybeans, has not purchased any new - season US soybeans. The seasonal harvest pressure in the US and the China - US trade dispute have put pressure on the market and accelerated the decline [5]. Market Outlook - In the short - term, there is a resonance in the domestic oil market. In the long - term, since the domestic soybean market mainly imports from Brazil, and Argentina's direct impact on domestic soybean import costs is low, the temporary exemption of export tariffs in Argentina is unlikely to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental changes need to be closely monitored [7].

Report Overview - The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles of various commodities and financial futures on September 23, 2025 [1]. Commodity Details Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: Spot price is 5728, futures price is 5648, basis is 80, basis rate is 1.42%, and historical quantile is 66.50% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 6000, futures price is 5870, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.21%, and historical quantile is 49.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3185, futures price is 3135, basis is 50, basis rate is 1.59%, and historical quantile is 39.90% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3430, futures price is 3380, basis is 50, basis rate is 1.48% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price is 808, futures price is 747, basis is 61, basis rate is 8.17%, and historical quantile is 29.33% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: Data on spot price, futures price, etc., is incomplete [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price is 1218, futures price is 1140, basis is 78, basis rate is 6.84%, and historical quantile is 12.20% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: Spot price is 80225, futures price is 80160, basis is 65, basis rate is 0.08%, and historical quantile is 50.41% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Spot price is 20750, futures price is 20745, basis is 5, basis rate is 0.02%, and historical quantile is 58.75% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 3033, futures price is 2934, basis is 99, basis rate is 3.37%, and historical quantile is 56.16% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price is 21880, futures price is 22090, basis is - 210, basis rate is - 0.95%, and historical quantile is 10.20% [1]. - **Tin (SN2510)**: Spot price is 272000, futures price is 272510, basis is - 510, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 32.08% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2510)**: Spot price is 121850, futures price is 121400, basis is 450, basis rate is 0.37%, and historical quantile is 79.79% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Spot price is 13270, futures price is 12910, basis is 360, basis rate is 2.79%, and historical quantile is 73.17% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price is 73850, futures price is 73420, basis is 430, basis rate is 0.59%, and historical quantile is 61.23% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price is 9500, futures price is 8950, basis is 550, basis rate is 6.15%, and historical quantile is 37.61% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price is 846.5, futures price is 839.9, basis is 6.6, basis rate is 0.78%, and historical quantile is 0.20% [1]. - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price is 10317, futures price is 10243, basis is 74, basis rate is 0.72%, and historical quantile is 0.40% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price is 3034, futures price is 2950, basis is 84, basis rate is 2.85%, and historical quantile is 23.30% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price is 8500, futures price is 8366, basis is 134, basis rate is 1.60%, and historical quantile is 25.00% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price is 9360, futures price is 9300, basis is 60, basis rate is 0.64%, and historical quantile is 7.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price is 2630, futures price is 2528, basis is 102, basis rate is 4.03%, and historical quantile is 64.10% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price is 10370, futures price is 10143, basis is 227, basis rate is 2.24%, and historical quantile is 73.70% [1]. - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price is 2300, futures price is 2147, basis is 153, basis rate is 7.13%, and historical quantile is 96.80% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price is 2431, futures price is 2600, basis is - 169, basis rate is - 6.95%, and historical quantile is 79.60% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2511)**: Spot price is 12700, futures price is 12795, basis is - 95, basis rate is - 0.74%, and historical quantile is 39.20% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price is 3530, futures price is 3075, basis is 455, basis rate is 14.80%, and historical quantile is 65.10% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 15146, futures price is 13610, basis is 1536, basis rate is 11.29%, and historical quantile is 94.70% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price is 5900, futures price is 5452, basis is 448, basis rate is 8.22%, and historical quantile is 80.90% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price is 9500, futures price is 8600, basis is 900, basis rate is 10.47%, and historical quantile is - 11.50% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 10735, futures price is 9500, basis is 1235, basis rate is 13.00%, and historical quantile is 64.00% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Spot price is 6622.1, futures price is 6592, basis is 30.1, basis rate is 0.46%, and historical quantile is 32.40% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4586, futures price is 4510, basis is 76, basis rate is 1.66%, and historical quantile is 24.30% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 4335, futures price is 4240, basis is 95, basis rate is 2.24%, and historical quantile is 89.80% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Spot price is 6425, futures price is 6274, basis is 151, basis rate is 2.41%, and historical quantile is 78.10% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price is 6970, futures price is 6928, basis is 42, basis rate is 0.61%, and historical quantile is 36.50% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2348, futures price is 2250, basis is 98, basis rate is 4.17%, and historical quantile is 13.80% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1660, futures price is 1620, basis is 40, basis rate is 2.41%, and historical quantile is 4.60% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 7175, futures price is 7130, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.63%, and historical quantile is 35.00% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 6873, futures price is 6838, basis is 35, basis rate is 0.51%, and historical quantile is 16.20% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 4938, futures price is 4780, basis is 158, basis rate is 3.20%, and historical quantile is 36.90% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price is 2604, futures price is 2500, basis is 104, basis rate is 4.17%, and historical quantile is 32.80% [1]. - **LPG (PG2511)**: Spot price is 4548, futures price is 4274, basis is 274, basis rate is 6.41%, and historical quantile is 48.50% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price is 3510, futures price is 3401, basis is 109, basis rate is 3.20%, and historical quantile is 73.40% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Spot price is 11700, futures price is 11505, basis is 195, basis rate is 1.69%, and historical quantile is 49.40% [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 1293, futures price is 1203, basis is 90, basis rate is 7.48%, and historical quantile is 20.92% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1293, futures price is 1203, basis is 90, basis rate is 7.48%, and historical quantile is 10.04% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price is 15615, futures price is 14700, basis is 915, basis rate is 6.22%, and historical quantile is 34.51% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price is 4522.6, futures price is 4484, basis is - 38.6, basis rate is - 0.86%, and historical quantile is 61.40% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2923, futures price is 2922.2, basis is 0.8, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 7.90% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 7225.1, futures price is 7013.2, basis is - 211.9, basis rate is - 3.02%, and historical quantile is 0.00% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 7489.5, futures price is 7230.2, basis is - 259.3, basis rate is - 3.59%, and historical quantile is 0.10% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price is 102.4, futures price is 99.94, basis is - 0.05, basis rate is - 0.05%, and historical quantile is 14.90% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price is 105.76, futures price is 99.41, basis is - 0.05, basis rate is - 0.05%, and historical quantile is 20.20% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price is 107.95, futures price is 100.02, basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, and historical quantile is 17.30% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price is 115.09, futures price is 102.4, basis is 0.62, basis rate is 0.94%, and historical quantile is 85.30% [1].

Report on Stock Index Futures Price Spread Core Data - **Price Spread of Stock Index Futures**: IF spot - futures spread is -25.58, with a change of 0.0096 from the previous day; IC spot - futures spread is -211.93, with a change of 0.40%; IM spot - futures spread is -259.28, with a change of -11.89 and a historical 1 - year quantile of 0.10%. Different contracts' inter - term spreads also show various values and changes [1]. Summary - The report presents detailed data on the price spreads of different stock index futures contracts, including spot - futures spreads and inter - term spreads, as well as their historical quantiles, which helps investors understand the current price relationships and trends in the stock index futures market [1]. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Price Spread Core Data - **Basis and Inter - term Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, TS basis is -0.0467, TF basis is 1.6521, T basis is 1.6415, and TL basis is 0.6767. Different contracts' inter - term spreads and their changes and historical quantiles are also provided, such as TS inter - term spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter is 0.0660 with a change of -0.0080 and a historical quantile of 38.60%) [2]. Summary - The report offers comprehensive information on the basis and inter - term spreads of treasury bond futures, enabling investors to analyze the price differences and trends in the treasury bond futures market [2]. Report on Precious Metals Spot - Futures Core Data - **Prices and Changes**: On September 22, 2025, the domestic AU2512 contract price is 846.50 yuan/gram, up 1.92% from September 19; the AG2512 contract price is 10317 yuan/kilogram, up 3.47%. The international COMEX gold and silver contracts also show price increases. Spot prices of London gold and silver, as well as domestic gold and silver T + D, also rise. The basis, ratio, interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and holdings data are also presented [4]. Summary - The report provides a detailed overview of the price changes, basis, ratio, and related market data of precious metals in both domestic and international markets, which is useful for investors to assess the precious metals market [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Core Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the spot freight rates of different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route show different changes. The settlement price indices of shipping routes, such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US - West route), decline. Futures contract prices of container shipping, like EC2602 and EC2604, increase. The basis of the main contract changes significantly. Fundamental data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export volume, and overseas economic data are also provided [6]. Summary - The report presents a comprehensive picture of the container shipping industry, including spot and futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, helping investors understand the industry's market conditions and trends [6].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The reports provide daily updates on various futures markets including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals futures, and container shipping futures. They present data on price differences (spreads), current prices, historical percentiles, and changes compared to previous days or periods, which can help investors analyze market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: Presents data on IF, IH, IC, and IM futures including current price spreads (e.g., spot - futures, inter - month spreads), changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Provides information on IRR, basis for TS, TF, T, and TL futures, including the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Details inter - month spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) for different treasury bond futures and their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Shows cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., and their changes and percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Futures - **Prices**: Compares domestic futures closing prices, foreign futures closing prices, and spot prices of gold and silver on September 22 and September 19, along with price changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Presents basis data (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold futures) and ratio data (e.g., COMEX gold/silver), including their current values, previous values, changes, and historical percentiles [4]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Provides information on interest rates (e.g., 10 - year US Treasury yield), exchange rates (e.g., US dollar index), and the latest values, changes, and percentage changes of inventory and positions in the precious metals market [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Lists spot quotes for container shipping routes from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies on September 22 and September 21, along with price changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Compares the settlement price indexes of SCFIS (European and US West routes) on September 22 and September 15, and the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index on September 19 and September 12, including price changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices of different contracts on September 22 and September 19, their price changes and percentage changes, and the basis of the main contract and its changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Presents fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, overseas economic indicators (e.g., eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI), and OECD leading indicators, including their values and changes [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3350 yuan, and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Short the January spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continues to converge [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increase, and the costs of different steelmaking processes change. The profits of various steel products show a downward trend [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases slightly, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, rebar output decreases significantly, and hot - rolled coil output increases slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases slightly, rebar inventory decreases seasonally, and hot - rolled coil inventory increases [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products increase slightly, rebar apparent demand increases significantly, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreases [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with the range referring to 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore when the price is low and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different iron ore varieties' 01 contracts decreases significantly, and the spreads between different contracts change [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreases week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increases. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases slightly, the daily average port clearance volume increases, and the monthly output of pig iron and crude steel decreases [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreases slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increases, and the number of days of available inventory of 64 steel mills increases [4]. Group 3: Coal Industry (Coke and Coking Coal) Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke when the price is low, with the range referring to 1650 - 1800, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal when the price is low, with the range referring to 1150 - 1300, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Due to previous price increases, coking profits are still available after two rounds of price cuts, and northern coke enterprises have high enthusiasm for resuming production [7]. - **Demand**: Steel mills continue to resume production, and iron water output continues to rise slightly, providing support for downstream demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Coking plants reduce inventory, while steel mills and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - **Supply**: Main - producing area coal mines resume production, logistics recovers, and sales improve after price cuts. Imported coal prices follow futures fluctuations [7]. - **Demand**: Iron water output continues to rise, coking operations remain stable, and downstream replenishment demand increases [7]. - **Inventory**: Coal mines, ports, and steel mills reduce inventory, while coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to gradually rise due to positive fundamentals, with Dalian palm oil futures potentially following suit and starting an upward trend [1]. - Soybean oil is under pressure from seasonal harvest and Sino - US trade disputes, but the expected decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may provide long - term support [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to oversupply, while domestic sugar is likely to continue its weak performance [3][4]. Grains and Oilseeds - US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic oilseed meal is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating rhythm due to sufficient supply [6]. Cotton - Medium - term domestic cotton prices may face pressure due to weak demand and high hedging pressure [9]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with attention on new grain purchase rhythms and opening prices [10]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate within a bottom - range due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand [15]. Pigs - The pig market has a clear supply recovery pattern, with near - month contracts maintaining weak adjustments, and attention on 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8620 yuan/ton, palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.32% to 9270 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.29% to 10210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The three - oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 4.35% to 288 yuan/ton, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.98% to 206 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.00% to 505 yuan/ton [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of SR2601 decreased by 0.16% to 5452 yuan/ton, and the price of SR2605 decreased by 0.26% to 5432 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.51% to 5800 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.43% to 5820 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year to 1116.21 million tons, and national sugar sales increased by 12.87% year - on - year to 1000 million tons [3]. Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3980 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 10.53% to 252 yuan/ton, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 14.81% to 155 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal 2601 spread increased by 2.85% to 506 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of CF2605 decreased by 0.66% to 13812 yuan/ton, and the price of CF2601 decreased by 0.80% to 13610 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.34% to 15146 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.39% to 15224 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Warehouse inventory decreased by 20.6% month - on - month to 117.59 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 3.4% month - on - month to 86.21 million tons [9]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of C2511 decreased by 0.97% to 2147 yuan/ton, and the price of CS2511 decreased by 1.30% to 2431 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.88% to 2300 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn starch in Changchun remained unchanged at 2560 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spreads**: The C11 - 3 spread decreased by 200.00% to - 1 yuan/ton, and the CS11 - 3 spread decreased by 45.00% to - 29 yuan/ton [10]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the price of the JD11 contract decreased by 1.19% to 3075 yuan/500KG, and the price of the JD10 contract decreased by 1.42% to 2982 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95% to 2.85, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% to 3.20 yuan/feather [14]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of LH2511 decreased by 0.23% to 12795 yuan/ton, and the price of LH2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13345 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The sample slaughterhouse daily volume decreased by 0.24% to 153248, and the self - breeding profit per week decreased by 245.13% to - 24 yuan/head [17].