1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The Fed's "preventive" interest rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out, and the previous loose trading of copper may end. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper price will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse this pattern in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market has a certain double - festival stocking demand, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the de - stocking inflection point has not yet arrived. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and the main contract reference range is 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of recycled aluminum is still tight, and the cost support is significant. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking demand provides phased support for the spot price. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward rush of Shanghai zinc. The upward continuous rebound requires the demand side to improve beyond expectations and the non - recession interest rate cut expectation to continue to improve. The downward breakthrough requires the TC to strengthen beyond expectations and the refined zinc to continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [6]. Tin - The supply side is relatively strong, which supports the tin price. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [8]. Nickel - The macro - atmosphere is weak, the mine - end disturbances increase but the actual impact is limited, and the cost still has support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. The medium - term supply is still loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term main contract reference range is 120000 - 125000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The macro - expectation has been digested, and the trading has returned to the fundamentals. The raw material price is firm, and the cost support still exists, but the peak - season demand of the downstream has not been realized as expected. The short - term disk is mainly in shock adjustment, and the main contract reference range is 12800 - 13200 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the news is calm. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate and sort out, and the main price center reference range is 70000 - 75000 [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80225 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the spot premium has decreased. The refined - scrap price difference has increased by 6.85% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.59% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20750 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss is - 1784 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.74 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions have increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21950 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss is - 3292 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 272000 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The import loss is - 12395.82 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 177 dollars/ton [9]. - **Cost of Electric Deposited Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electric deposited nickel is 117171 yuan/ton, down 1.15% month - on - month [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 171.33 tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 860 dollars/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided in the given reports. Core Views Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The downstream component inventory is high and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national policies, actual production rates of polysilicon enterprises, and inventory digestion and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and prices may turn to oscillation, with the main price range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter production reduction rhythm of silicon material and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market is weak. There is still an over - supply problem. In the medium term, demand will remain at the previous rigid level. The market can be shorted on rebounds. - Glass: The market is also weak. The spot market transaction is sluggish, and the industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term sentiment may drive the market, and mid - term demand in the peak season should be monitored [4]. Rubber - Affected by typhoon weather, short - term rubber prices are strongly oscillating, with the 01 contract in the range of 15000 - 16500. Future attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season and the possible impact of La Nina on supply [5]. Logs - In the current "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, with the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves. The strategy is to go long on dips when the price is below 800 yuan [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - N - type re -投料 average price remained at 52650 yuan on September 22. N - type granular silicon average price was 49500 yuan/ton. N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420% to 1660 yuan [1]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract decreased by 3.24% to 50990 yuan on September 22. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 37.50% [1]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - Silicon wafer production increased by 0.29% to 13.92 GW, and polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 tons [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - Polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 tons, imports decreased by 9.63% to 0.10 tons, exports increased by 40.12% to 0.30 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis of Main Contracts - The price of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon increased by 1.60% to 8500 yuan on September 22. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 1122.22% [2]. Inter - month Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 60.00% to - 20 [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 tons. The national start - up rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87 [2]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 tons on a weekly basis, and social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North - China glass quote remained at 1150 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 decreased by 1.04% to 1329 yuan [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North - China soda ash quote remained at 1300 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 1.63% to 1384 yuan [4]. Supply - Soda ash start - up rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and weekly production decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 tons [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80 ten - thousand standard boxes, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 tons [4]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year for the Current Month) - New construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, and construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05% [4]. Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14700 yuan on September 22. The whole - latex basis decreased by 9.58% to - 915 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 33.33% to 10 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 600.00% to 30 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in July increased by 1.61% to 421.60 tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 12.09% to 197.50 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.95% to 286639 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.07% to 44553 tons [5]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter on September 22, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main standard delivery spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.114 on September 22, and the import theoretical cost was 797.43 yuan [7]. Port Shipping Volume and Departure Ship Numbers - Port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea decreased by 3.87% to 173.3 million/cubic meters in August [7]. Main Port Inventory - As of September 19, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 292 million cubic meters, a decrease of 100,000 cubic meters from the previous week [7]. Daily Outbound Volume - As of September 12, the daily outbound volume of logs was 5.98 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31 million cubic meters from the previous week [7].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the TMT sector is booming, but the overall market volume is shrinking. The bond market is affected by factors such as central bank policies and market sentiment, showing a mixed situation. The precious metals market is driven by overseas political turmoil and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes, with prices reaching new highs. The shipping index shows a volatile trend, and the commodity futures market, including non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products, also presents different supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8][11]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - shares strengthened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.55%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted. The consumer electronics sector led the rise, while the consumer - related sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: Domestic news includes a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry. Overseas, there are differences between South Korea and the US on a $350 billion investment [3][4]. - **Funding**: On September 18, the trading volume of A - shares decreased. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market turned to shock. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 to collect premiums when the index pulls back [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds continued to improve [6]. - **Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy is supportive, and it will ensure liquidity and promote the decline of social financing costs [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still mixed. It is recommended to operate within the range, and consider the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to the political turmoil in Argentina and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rate cuts, the precious metals market was driven by risk - aversion sentiment, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs [8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is above $41 [10]. - **Funding**: The Fed's loose monetary policy stimulates institutional investors to increase their holdings of ETFs [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 22, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies are in different ranges [11]. - **Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index decreased by 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9%, the Shanghai - US West freight rate increased by 31%, and the Shanghai - US East freight rate decreased by 23% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.35% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile. It is expected that the spot inflection point will appear in mid - to - late October, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is bearish, and it is advisable to consider the spread arbitrage between the 12 - month and 10 - month contracts [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the market procurement sentiment weakened when the price returned to around 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the future interest rate cut path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data [13][14]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the price correction, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME and domestic social inventories decreased, while COMEX inventory increased [16]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak. The market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides support for the price [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply pattern was gradually loosening [17]. - **Supply**: In August, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected to continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [18]. - **Logic**: The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the market trading activity increased [19]. - **Supply**: In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries were in the process of recovery [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [20]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is generally positive, but the inventory is still in the accumulation stage. It is expected to fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase slightly in September [22]. - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it is expected to recover moderately in September [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the cost support is significant. The demand is gradually recovering, and the spot price is expected to remain firm in the short term [23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased slightly, and some downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [23][24]. - **Supply**: The import TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease slightly in September but increase year - on - year [24]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased in the peak season, and the inventory of raw materials increased [25]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [25]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On September 22, the price of 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The trading activity decreased after the price increase [26][27]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore import volume in August was at a low level, and the tin ingot import volume decreased [28]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a tight - balance situation [29]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the social inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply side provides support for the price. Attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased slightly [30]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is weak, while the demand for alloys is relatively good. The price of nickel sulfate has increased recently but may face pressure in the medium term [31]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is at a high level and increased, while the domestic social inventory increased slightly and the bonded area inventory decreased [31]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 120,000 and 125,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is firm, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of chromium ore is rising [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August and September increased [34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of narrow - range fluctuation. The cost support is significant, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: The production in August increased, and it continued to increase in September. The supply is affected by new projects and imports [37][38]. - **Demand**: The demand is stable and optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. The demand in September and October is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [38]. - **Logic**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton in the short term [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [39]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply - demand relationships. The profit of steel products has declined [40]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased in the first eight months, and the production of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [40]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat in the first eight months. The export of steel products supported the valuation [40]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to go long lightly and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or increased slightly [44]. - **Futures**: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly [44]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increased, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. The spot auction price showed signs of stabilization and rebound [47][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mines in the main production areas continued to resume production, and the import coal price followed the futures price [49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron production continued to increase, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal market is moving towards a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures fluctuated and declined. Some coking enterprises started to raise prices [50][52]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [50]. - **Supply**: The coking enterprises in the north have high enthusiasm for resuming production [52]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the demand for coke was supported [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with the coking plant inventory decreasing and the steel mill and port inventories increasing [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke spot price is expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot prices of soybean meal increased on September 22, and the trading volume increased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [53]. - **Fundamentals**: Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The US is expected to increase soybean planting next year, and the soybean planting in Brazil has started [53][54]. - **Market Outlook**: The cancellation of the export tax in Argentina put pressure on the US soybean and domestic oil - meal markets. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [56]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated weakly, with prices in various regions decreasing [57]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm for slaughtering by farmers and second - fattening increased [57]. - **Market Outlook**: The pressure on live pig slaughter is high, and the spot price is difficult to improve before the National Day. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between different contracts [58].

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report presents the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the IF futures - spot spread is - 37.52, with a change of - 26.61 compared to the previous day, and it is at the 16.30% historical 1 - year percentile and 8.40% full - history percentile [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads such as quarterly - monthly, far - monthly - quarterly, etc. for IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, along with their changes and percentiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are reported, including their current values, changes, and percentiles [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads, including IRR, basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads [3]. Summary by Category - **IRR and Basis**: For instance, the TF basis on 2025 - 09 - 19 is 1.2731, with a change of 0.0265 compared to the previous day, and it is at the 30.80% percentile since listing [3]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Spreads between different delivery months for TS, TF, T, and TL are given, along with their changes and percentiles [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented, including their values, changes, and percentiles [3]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver) [5]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic AU2512 and AG2512 contracts, and foreign COMEX gold and silver contracts' closing prices, along with their changes and percentage changes, are reported. Spot prices of London gold and silver, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + D contracts are also given [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values between different spot and futures prices, and ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver are presented, including their changes [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventory and positions of precious metals are reported, along with their changes [5]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report offers spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [7]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, etc., are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: Settlement price indices such as SCFIS (European and US West routes) and Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) are reported, including their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port performance in Shanghai, monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (e.g., Eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI), and OECD leading indicators are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel demand is in the off - season, with weak reality and expectations due to declines in domestic real estate, infrastructure investment, and a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth. However, coal supply interference expectations remain, and raw materials like coking coal and iron ore are relatively strong. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar between 3100 - 3350 yuan and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. Suggest light - position long - entry attempts and short the January hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - Last week, iron ore futures trended strongly. Supply - side global shipments rebounded significantly while 45 - port arrivals decreased. Demand - side saw increased steel mill restocking demand despite a slight decline in profit margins. The market is in a balanced and tight state, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 iron ore contract at low prices and engage in an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Last week, coke and coking coal futures both trended upwards. For coke, after two rounds of price cuts, there is still profit in coking, and downstream demand has support. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the market has stabilized, and downstream restocking demand has increased. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract at low prices and engage in an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China and North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in South China it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Futures prices for all contracts rose. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China and South China it decreased by 10 and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices also generally rose [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of some steel products decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit which decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1] Production, Inventory, and Demand - Daily average pig iron production increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Building materials trading volume increased by 2.6 to 11.4, a 29.6% increase [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port increased slightly, with a 0.9 - 1.0% increase. Futures contract spreads such as 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 changed, with the 5 - 9 spread increasing by 2.5 to 22.0, a 12.8% increase [4] Supply and Demand - Global iron ore shipments increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a 29.6% increase, and 45 - port arrivals decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a 3.5% decrease. 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron production increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [4] Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 3.3 to 13801.08, a 0.0% decrease. 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase [4] Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices generally rose. For example, the coke 01 contract increased by 30 to 1739, a 1.7% increase, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 29 to 1232, a 2.4% increase [6] Supply and Demand - Coke production was relatively stable, with the full - sample coking plant's daily average production decreasing by 0.0 to 66.7, a 0.1% decrease. Coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 11.4 to 872.5, a 1.3% increase [6] Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. Coking coal inventory also showed an overall increase, with the full - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increasing by 56.9 to 940.4, a 6.4% increase [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - This week, the caustic soda futures market stopped falling and stabilized, with a significant rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises have been continuously narrowing due to the ongoing decline in alumina prices both at home and abroad. The spot price support is weak. In the North China region, inventory has increased due to the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream buyers. In the East China region, the supply is tight as the maintenance and production - reduction devices of enterprises have not yet resumed, and the inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand from non - aluminum sectors. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut as the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda needs time to be released, and the current supply is at a high level while the main downstream is facing difficulties in unloading [2]. 2.2 PVC - This week, the PVC futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the macro - environment. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. Next week, many enterprises will end their maintenance, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the improvement in the operating rate of downstream products is limited, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, while the ethylene price is stable, providing bottom - line support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Market Trends - The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost. For example, the price accelerated its decline when the macro was weak, the operating rate was high, and there were concerns about future supply. It also had rebounds under the influence of positive policies and increased demand [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 85.44%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week's 86.73%. The operating rate in Shandong was 85.11%, a decrease of 2.24%. The inventory in the East China region increased by 0.70% from September 10th to September 17th, and the inventory in Shandong increased by 8.28% and 7.46% respectively for different sample enterprises. The overall operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is still relatively high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - The alumina industry, the main downstream of caustic soda, has a large number of new production capacity plans from the end of 2024 to 2025. It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a concentrated demand of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. 3.1.4 Other Related Industries - The price of bauxite is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw material inventory has increased significantly. The production of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the in - plant inventory is decreasing. The non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, textiles, and papermaking have different trends. The printing and dyeing operating rate is seasonally rising, and the textile industry is gradually entering the peak season [39][45][50]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - environment, and cost. It has experienced continuous declines and rebounds. For instance, it fell when there was no positive supply - demand drive and the commodity atmosphere was poor, and rebounded when the macro - sentiment improved and there were some supply - demand contradictions [62]. 3.2.2 Supply - This week, the operating rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased, the weekly maintenance loss increased, and the number of temporarily shut - down devices increased. The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.43%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points compared with the previous week. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 76.91%, a decrease of 3.38 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 72%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points [84]. 3.2.3 Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," still has a negative impact on demand. According to the data from Xuande samples, the downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. It is expected that there will be no positive driving force for the PVC downstream [92]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The PVC inventory continues to rise, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period. The social inventory in the East China and South China regions, as well as the total social inventory and factory inventory, have all shown an upward trend [100]. 3.2.5 Foreign Market - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with an average import price of $712 per ton. The cumulative import from January to July was 148,800 tons. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month, 46.98% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 6.03% year - on - year. The export volume in July was 330,600 tons, with an average export price of $606 per ton. The cumulative export from January to July was 2.291 million tons. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month, 112.82% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The domestic trade price has adjusted, and the export windows to Southeast Asia and India have opened, with relatively good weekly export transactions [118]. 3.3 Futures and Options Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Caustic Soda - Futures strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 01 contract [4]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3.2 PVC - Futures strategy: Expect the 01 contract to fluctuate in the range of 4,800 - 5,000 [5]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In the short term, industrial silicon lacks upward driving force, and silicon prices may shift to a volatile pattern. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of polysilicon enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot and Futures Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the price of East China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,350 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of East China Si4210 was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis - In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production was 2.597 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. In September, production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month [3][21]. - Xinjiang's weekly production was 33,610 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 69%, showing an increase. Northwest's weekly production was 10,950 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 77%, remaining stable. Yunnan's weekly production was 7,565 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 65%, remaining flat. Sichuan's weekly production was 6,035 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 52%, showing a decrease [25]. - There are many planned industrial silicon production capacity projects in 2025, with a potential production capacity of over 1 million tons. However, the industry needs to consider capacity clearance due to over - supply and inventory pressure [31]. 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis - Polysilicon: The price index this week was 52.35 yuan/kg, with a slight upward shift in the price center. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production. In August, domestic polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, and in September, production is expected to decline month - on - month [34]. - Organic silicon: The operating rate was stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remained stable. In August, production was 223,100 tons, a 11.67% month - on - month increase [48]. - Aluminum - silicon alloy: The operating rate showed a slight increasing trend, and the traditional "Golden September" effect was gradually emerging [3]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - Raw material prices: Information on the prices of silica, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal is provided, but no specific price trends are detailed [89][91][95][96]. - Electricity prices in major production areas: In August, the electricity price during the flood season decreased, and the overall electricity price center shifted downward, but it is still at a medium - high level in the past 10 years [99]. - Profit: With the recent price rebound of industrial silicon, profits have been quickly restored [108]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - As of September 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 543,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 423,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [115].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The Malaysian crude palm oil futures market is oscillating narrowly. With potential positive factors like slowing production growth and increasing exports, there's a chance for it to strengthen. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit if they can effectively stay above the moving average. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, a new upward space may open, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The negative impact of the US EPA's proposal is almost digested. If the upcoming China - US summit mentions China's purchase of US soybeans, CBOT soybeans will rise, boosting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic consumption is good during the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, and soybean oil export news also supports the market. The Q4 increase in soybean supply may drag down forward contracts, while the rise in CBOT soybeans may boost near - term contracts [1]. Sugar - The Brazilian sugar production in late August exceeded market expectations, causing the raw sugar price to decline significantly. The domestic sugar market is under pressure due to increased imports in August, weakening raw sugar prices, weakening processed sugar quotes, restricted sugar transportation in Guangxi, and a slowdown in spot purchases as the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking nears the end. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [3]. Cotton - On the supply side, there is little willingness to rush to buy seed cotton, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, resulting in significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than in previous years. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [4]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will remain at a low level or may have a slight rebound due to the influence of the rhythm of corn supply and price support. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - purchasing rhythm and weather conditions [6]. Eggs - With the egg - laying hen inventory at a high level and the egg - laying rate and egg weight increasing after the weather cools down, the egg supply is sufficient. As the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival approach, cold - storage eggs are being released, increasing supply pressure. Recently, egg prices have declined, reducing traders' purchasing intentions. However, as the festivals approach, supermarkets and e - commerce may increase their egg purchases for promotions. It is expected that egg prices will oscillate within a bottom - range [10]. Meal - The uncertainty of the biodiesel blending policy and the unclear demand outlook for US soybeans suppress US soybean oil and soybeans. The US soybean supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues. Although the concern about the Q4 supply in China is gradually alleviated, the spot market is loose, and the terminal lacks stocking enthusiasm. There are many short - term negative factors for meal, but there is also a basis for a subsequent rebound [13]. Pigs - The supply pressure from farmers' increased slaughter is being realized. Although demand is slowly recovering, it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. The weight of retail pigs is still high, and there is continuous slaughter pressure before the double festivals. After the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting showed an intention to strengthen production capacity regulation, the slaughter pressure on farmers may increase, mainly affecting the market after mid - next year. In the short term, although there is state purchasing, the spot price lacks support, and near - term contracts will maintain a weak adjustment [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 19, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,620 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.94%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,328 yuan, up 44 yuan (0.53%). The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,300 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.32%); the futures price of P2601 was 9,316 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.13%). The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,180 yuan, up 120 yuan (1.19%); the futures price of OI601 was 10,068 yuan, up 84 yuan (0.84%) [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 680 yuan, up 50 yuan (6.85%); the 2601 contract spread was - 1,062 yuan, up 24 yuan (2.21%). The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1,560 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.63%); the 2601 contract spread was 1,740 yuan, up 40 yuan (2.35%) [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,461 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.24%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5,446 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.18%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.18 cents/pound, up 0.05 cents (0.31%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); in Kunming, it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.09%) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1,000 million tons, up 114 million tons (12.87%) [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of cotton 2605 was 13,705 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.15%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13,720 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (- 0.33%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.30 cents/pound, down 0.62 cents (- 0.93%) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,198 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan (- 0.33%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,283 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (- 0.24%) [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons (- 18.6%); the industrial inventory was 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons (- 3.5%) [4]. Corn - **Corn**: On September 22, the price of corn 2511 was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.41%); the basis was 112 yuan, up 9 yuan (8.74%) [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,463 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.32%); the basis was 97 yuan, up 8 yuan (8.99%) [6]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,112 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan (- 0.64%); the price of the egg 10 - contract was 3,025 yuan/500KG, down 18 yuan (- 0.59%) [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled hen price was 4.67 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan (1.30%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.50, up 0.07 (2.88%); the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan (20.84%) [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,014 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.70%); the basis was - 64 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 48.84%) [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan, up 30 yuan (1.17%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2,522 yuan, up 52 yuan (2.11%); the basis was 78 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 22.00%) [13]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No.1 main contract was 3,904 yuan, unchanged [13]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13,350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.15%) [15]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 12,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong, it was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 12,370 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 149,450 heads, up 842 heads (0.57%); the weekly white - striped pig price was 0.00 yuan, down 19.97 yuan (- 100.00%); the weekly piglet price was 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.03%); the weekly slaughter weight was 128.45 kg, up 0.13 kg (0.10%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 24 yuan/head, down 41.3 yuan (- 245.13%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 199 yuan/head, down 37.4 yuan (- 23.08%); the monthly fertile sow inventory was 4,042 million heads, down 1 million heads (- 0.02%) [15].