Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and there will be a style switch and partial withdrawal in the short - term [3]. - There is no strong incremental negative news, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may reach a high in the range of 1.8 - 1.83%. Without strong positive news, the short - term downward space of the interest rate is limited, and there may be resistance around 1.75% [3]. - Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. However, with the approaching end of the month, the expiration of derivative contracts brings greater volatility risks [3]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate. The decline in iron ore shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand support the strong operation of iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of crude oil shows marginal increase concerns, and the future trend needs to pay attention to the evolution of geopolitical issues [3]. - The high supply pressure of urea continues, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs to be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: As the long holiday approaches, the capital market becomes less active. There will be a style switch in the short - term, with blue - chip indexes remaining firm. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The open - market operation turns to net withdrawal, weakening the bond market sentiment. The Treasury bond futures generally decline. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy, and try to go long with a light position when the market sentiment stabilizes at the low level, but pay attention to taking profits in time. For the basis - trading strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can participate in the basis narrowing strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. It is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by emergencies, but the sentiment fades quickly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to try short - term long positions on pullbacks and narrow the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures contracts for January [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline in shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand, iron ore prices are supported to run strongly. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the production area is stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by the downstream restocking demand, the futures market has an upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - **Coke**: After the second round of price cuts for coke is implemented, some coke enterprises start to raise prices, and the futures market has a rebound expectation in advance. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The market fluctuates and consolidates, and spot transactions are good below 80,000 yuan. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The price breaks below 2900 yuan, and the downward space is limited due to cost support. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price drops, and trading volume picks up slightly. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday restocking demand provides short - term support for the spot price. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan [3]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory decreases during the peak season. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. The main contract is expected to trade between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [3]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore remains at a low level in August, and the fundamentals provide support. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [3]. - **Nickel**: The market maintains a weak shock, and the fundamentals change little. The main contract is expected to trade between 119,000 - 124,000 yuan [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market maintains a narrow - range shock. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of downstream enterprises. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the marginal increase in supply have eased. The future trend needs to pay attention to geopolitical issues. It is recommended to operate in a band for the unilateral strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. Wait for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [3]. - **Urea**: The high - supply pressure continues. Attention should be paid to the order - taking progress of urea factories before the National Day. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a short - term support level at 1610 - 1630 yuan/ton. On the option side, after the implied volatility rises, it is recommended to narrow the spread at high levels [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is positive, but the cost side is strong. PX may be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on the PX11 contract in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation improves, but it is still weak in the medium - term, with limited driving force. It is recommended to go long on TA in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short. Treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse spread [3]. - **Short - fiber**: There is no obvious driving force in the short - term, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1100 yuan, with limited upward and downward driving forces [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The demand for bottle chips improves periodically, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the upward space of the processing margin is limited. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The expectation of new device commissioning and the weak terminal market put pressure on MEG. It is recommended to sell call options on EG2601 - C - 4400 at high levels and use the EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: As the long holiday approaches, middle - stream enterprises adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the market drops significantly. Hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The enthusiasm for spot procurement is average, and the market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation weakens, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 will follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices in the short - term [3]. - **Styrene**: The oil price is expected to be weak, putting pressure on the absolute price of styrene. It is recommended to go short on the absolute price rebound of EB10 and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost and supply - demand driving forces of BR are limited, and it may follow the fluctuations of natural rubber and commodities. Pay attention to the support around 11,400 yuan for BR2511 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens, and the trading volume is fair. The upward and downward space is limited. Wait and see near the previous low [3]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance increases, and the trading volume improves. In the short - term, the high - maintenance situation continues, supply decreases, demand increases, and inventory decreases. Wait and see in the short - term [3]. - **Methanol**: The inventory at the port continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. The downward space is currently limited. Wait and see [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: Argentina cancels the export tax, putting pressure on the two - meal market again. It will have a short - term weak adjustment [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure is large, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the National Day. Exit the reverse spread strategy and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: Under the bearish expectation, the market fluctuates weakly [3]. - **Oil**: Argentina cancels the grain export tax, causing the market to plunge. Pay attention to the support at 9000 yuan for the main contract of P in the short - term [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad. Exit short positions and take profits [3]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing the supply pressure. Go short in the short - term [3]. - **Egg**: The domestic sales in some local markets still support the demand to a certain extent, but the long - term trend is bearish. Control the position of short positions [3]. - **Apple**: Early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is fair. The main contract is expected to trade around 8300 yuan [3]. - **Jujube**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures market fluctuates. It is bearish in the medium - and long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus situation is difficult to reverse, and the market of soda ash weakens. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales weaken, and the market drops. Wait and see [3]. - **Rubber**: Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price fluctuates strongly in the short - term. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment weakens, and the price of industrial silicon drops. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: Suppressed by fundamental sentiment, the price of polysilicon drops significantly. Wait and see for the time being [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The driving force weakens, and the market fluctuates mainly. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin - LLDPE and PP: Recently, PP production has declined due to significant losses in PDH and externally - sourced propylene routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and decreased inventory. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually rising. This week, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased, and there are more import offers from North America. Currently, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure on the 01 contract, which limits the upside space [2]. Methanol - The market is trading high inventory and fast loading in Iran. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, market sentiment has deteriorated, prices have weakened, and the basis has slightly weakened. In terms of supply and demand, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports prices. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, demand is weak. Port arrivals are still high, inventory accumulation is significant, and trading has weakened. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are neutral, MTO profits are strengthening, and traditional downstream profits are slightly strengthening, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating inventory significantly, and the import volume in September remains high. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expected overseas gas restriction in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Recently, some pure benzene devices have restarted or produced products, and some maintenance plans have been postponed, so the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are still in a loss state, and some second - tier downstream products have high inventory. In September and October, both planned and unplanned production cuts in downstream styrene devices have reduced the demand support. The supply - demand expectation for pure benzene in September is still relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors. - Styrene: Driven by the peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, the overall demand for styrene downstream is okay, but the increase is limited. On the supply side, under the pressure of inventory and industry profits, more devices have shut down or reduced production. Some devices have reduced production due to accidents, and the export expectation of styrene has increased due to overseas device maintenance, so the supply is expected to decrease. Port inventory has accumulated, which may put pressure on the styrene price. In the short term, styrene may be affected by the oil price, geopolitical situation, and the alleviation of concerns about marginal supply increase [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that the market's concerns about the current supply surplus have eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has resurfaced. Specifically, the oil export agreement of the Iraqi Kurds has reached a deadlock, eliminating about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, which is the key trigger for the rebound after the previous continuous decline in oil prices and also provides support for the near - month spread. At the same time, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and the tough stance of NATO have magnified the supply interruption risk of refined oil products, pushed up the cracking spread, and affected the oil price from the sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although the IEA report and other macro - factors still point to a supply surplus, in the short term, geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential inventory increase. In the short term, oil prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to mainly conduct high - selling and low - buying operations, with the operating range of WTI at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after the volatility increases [21][22]. Urea - The urea futures price has been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains at a high level of over 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing the supply pressure. At the same time, agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate. Although there are some export port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. The lack of market confidence and continuous inventory accumulation further suppress the futures price, and there is a lack of substantial positive driving factors [25]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX: Recently, the short - process capacity utilization at home and abroad has increased, and the maintenance of some domestic PX devices has been postponed. In addition, multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The supply - demand expectation for PX in the fourth quarter is further weakened. However, it may be supported by oil prices in the short term. - PTA: Due to the continuously low processing fees of PTA, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The spot basis has been continuously weak. In terms of absolute price, it is affected by the situation in Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening. In the short term, the import expectation in September is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand expectation for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, mainly due to the start - up of new devices and the seasonal decline in demand in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, the short - fiber supply has remained at a high level. On the demand side, although it is the peak season, new orders are limited, and the peak season this year is not very prosperous. The short - fiber price has support at the low level, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - chip: Recently, some bottle - chip devices have restarted while some have shut down, and the overall production reduction intensity remains basically unchanged. With the downstream's low - price replenishment demand, the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - chip are supported, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction of bottle - chip devices will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation [28]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic Soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. This week, the supply has increased, and the start - up rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, the continuous decline in domestic and overseas alumina prices has continuously narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, and the support for the spot price is weak. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious downstream purchasing, the inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, the enterprises under maintenance and load - reduction have not resumed, the supply is tight, and the non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid demand, so the inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the short - term local caustic soda inventory needs time to be released. With the current high supply and the poor unloading of the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. It was previously recommended to take short positions, and the short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many enterprises will end their maintenance next week, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the start - up rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices and have average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw material calcium carbide continues to rise, and the ethylene price remains stable, providing bottom - line support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [36]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, L2601 and L2509 closed down 0.35% and 0.50% respectively; PP2601 and PP2509 closed down 0.45% and 0.35% respectively. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, and the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. The spot price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.44%, and the spot price of North China LDPE film decreased by 0.28% [2]. - **Start - up Rates**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. The PP device start - up rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, the PP powder start - up rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 (unit not specified), and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 (unit not specified), and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, MA2601 closed down 0.21%, MA2509 closed up 0.17%, the MA91 spread increased by 60.00%, the太仓 basis decreased by 16.37%, the spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 0.73%, the spot price of Luoyang, Henan decreased by 0.22%, and the spot price of Taicang port decreased by 0.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8% [4]. - **Start - up Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%, the overseas enterprise start - up rate in Shanghai decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 13.46% to 116%, the downstream acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3%, and the downstream MTBE start - up rate increased by 1.37% to 63.8% [4][5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2% to 63.41 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4% to 596 dollars/ton, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged at 845 dollars/ton, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7% to 723 dollars/ton, the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased by 5.6% to 125 dollars/ton, and the spread between ethylene and naphtha decreased by 1.0% to 247 dollars/ton [9]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 1.0% to 6860 dollars/ton, EB2511 futures decreased by 0.8% to 6870 dollars/ton, the EB basis (10) increased by 33.3% to 24 dollars/ton, the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 112.5% to - 34 dollars/ton, the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 20.3% to - 337 dollars/ton, and the EB cash flow (integrated) decreased by 19.0% to - 552 dollars/ton [9]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol decreased by 7.6% to - 272 dollars/ton, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) decreased by 4.7% to - 1885 dollars/ton, the cash flow of aniline increased by 14.0% to 514 dollars/ton, the EPS cash flow decreased by 13.6% to 190 dollars/ton, the PS cash flow decreased by 100.0% to - 60 dollars/ton, and the ABS cash flow increased by 247.8% to 34 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 million tons [10]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rates**: The domestic pure benzene start - up rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%, the phenol start - up rate increased by 3.0% to 71.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 2.8% to 88.7%, the aniline start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 72.0%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 1.1% to 61.2%, the downstream EPS start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 61.7%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 69.8% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, compared with September 23, Brent crude oil increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.54% to 63.75 dollars/barrel, SC crude oil decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 dollars/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82% to 1.37 dollars, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65% to 0.72 dollars, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% to 1.80 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 dollars, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 dollars, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars, the RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94% to 7.61 dollars, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40% to - 0.76 dollars, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% to 15.00 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spread of US gasoline increased by 1.10% to 20.59 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of European gasoline increased by 1.15% to 18.86 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore gasoline increased by 6.11% to 11.12 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US diesel increased by 0.14% to 33.19 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore diesel increased by 0.86% to 18.74 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US jet fuel decreased by 8.80% to 24.13 dollars/barrel, and the cracking spread of Singapore jet fuel increased by 0.85% to 17.74 dollars/barrel [21]. Urea - **Prices**: The synthetic ammonia (Shandong) price increased by 0.91% to 2220 dollars/ton. The spot prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, and 0.56% respectively [25]. - **Spreads**: The Shandong - Henan spread decreased by 10 dollars to - 10 dollars/ton, the Guangdong - Henan spread decreased by 6% to 160 dollars/ton, the Shandong basis decreased by 20.00% to - 48 dollars/ton [25]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine (Shandong), compound fertilizer

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, such as price differences, basis, ratios, and related fundamental data, but do not explicitly state a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences and Percentiles**: On September 24, 2025, the F and H futures-spot price differences were 35.98 and 5.49 respectively, with changes of 2.63 and 4.66 from the previous day. The IC and IM futures-spot price differences were -240.11 and -281.07, with changes of -28.19 and -21.79 [1]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are various inter - period price differences for IF, H, IC, and IM, such as the "next month - current month" price differences and "far month - current month" price differences, with different historical percentile rankings and changes from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: There are multiple cross - variety ratios, like the ratios of IC/IH, IF/IH, and IM/IF, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: On September 23, 2025, the IRR for TS basis was 1.4835, TF basis was 1.4550, T basis was 1.4427, and TL basis was 1.2299, with corresponding changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are different inter - period price differences for TS, TF, T, and TL, such as "current quarter - next quarter" and "next quarter - far quarter", with historical percentile rankings and changes [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Cross - variety price differences like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are provided, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous day. The AG2512 contract closed at 10349 yuan/kg, up 0.31%. The COMEX gold and silver futures also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis values of gold and silver, such as "gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract" and "silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract", are provided, along with historical percentile rankings. Ratios like COMEX gold/silver and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver are also given [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Information on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate is provided. Inventory data for gold and silver in domestic and foreign exchanges, as well as ETF holdings, are also presented [5]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The SCFI (US East) and SCFI (US West) had significant price drops. The futures prices of various EC contracts also changed, with the basis of the main contract increasing significantly [9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased, while the number of port calls increased. Some overseas economic indicators, such as the eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI, showed positive changes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the documents regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash futures markets continued to weaken yesterday. The soda ash market has an oversupply problem, and the inventory has transferred to the mid - downstream. There is no significant increase in downstream demand in the medium term. It is recommended to hold short positions. The glass spot market trading has become dull, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Track policies and the inventory - building performance of mid - downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. Natural Rubber - Future supply increase expectations have weakened raw material prices, and the cost support has changed from strong to weak. The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically completed, and the de - stocking rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. Some enterprises may control production flexibly. Pay attention to the impact of typhoon weather on domestic production areas, and the 01 contract range is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material output in the main production areas during the peak season [3]. Logs - The log futures market fluctuated and closed flat. The inventory has decreased significantly, the demand has declined, and the supply is expected to increase. The market is in a volatile pattern. As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, pay attention to whether the shipment volume improves significantly during the seasonal peak season. It is recommended to go long at low prices [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market continued to decline. Substantial support policies have not been implemented, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The downstream component inventory is high, and prices are loosening. Follow national policies, the actual production start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the market balance is gradually turning to looseness. The expected supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase in the dry season in the southwest has boosted market sentiment. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. Glass 2505 decreased by 1.28% to 1312, and Glass 2509 decreased by 0.64% to 1389. The 05 basis increased by 9.50% to - 162. Soda ash prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 1.66% to 1361, and Soda ash 2509 decreased by 1.08% to 1423. The 05 basis increased by 27.38% to - 61 [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly output decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 tons. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80 (unit not clear), the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 tons. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [1]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09% (improved from - 0.19%), the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [1]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber remained unchanged at 14,700 yuan/ton, the full - latex basis increased by 9.84% to - 855 yuan/ton, the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.34% to 14,800 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference increased by 5.23% to - 725 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 150.00% to 15 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 40 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 44.44% to - 25 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 tons, Indonesia's production increased by 12.09% to 197.50 tons, India's production decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 tons, and China's production decreased by 1.27% to 101.30 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.20% to 73.66%, and the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 0.07% to 65.66%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces, and tire exports decreased by 5.46% to 6,301.00 [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95% to 286,639 (unit not clear), the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3.07% to 44,553, the dry - rubber bonded warehouse inbound rate in Qingdao increased to 2.47, and the outbound rate decreased to 6.44 [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2511 remained unchanged at 805 yuan/cubic meter, Log 2601 increased by 0.06% to 819 yuan/cubic meter, and Log 2603 decreased by 0.18% to 823.5 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of main benchmark delivery spot goods remained unchanged [5]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.115, and the import theoretical cost increased by 0.10 to 797.53 [5]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87% to 166.6 million cubic meters, the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The inventory in China decreased by 3.31% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.50% to 176.60 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 5% to 5.98 million cubic meters, and the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 11% to 3.06 million cubic meters [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type multi - feedstock remained unchanged at 52,650 yuan/ton, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased by 43.98% to 2,390 yuan/ton [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 1.43% to 50,260, the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 127.27% to - 45, and the first - continuous - to - second - continuous spread increased by 5.99% to - 2355 [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer production increased by 0.29% to 13.92 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 tons. Monthly: The polysilicon production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 tons, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 9.63% to 0.10 tons, and the polysilicon export volume increased by 40.12% to 0.30 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8500 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.55% to 575, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 50.00% to - 25 [7]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 75.00% to - 35, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.27% to - 400, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 133.33% to 35 [7]. Fundamental Data - Monthly: The national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 tons, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 12.91% to 16.97 tons, and the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 41.19% to 5.81 tons. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%, the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 15.25% to 60.61%, and the Yunnan operating rate increased by 44.09% to 47.39% [7]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 tons, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 5.45% to 3.10 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 tons [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term drivers are weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated in a narrow range. Macroscopically, if the subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are expected to benefit. Fundamentally, it remains in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, with the main reference range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely at the bottom. The market is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse fundamentally in the short term. It is expected that the short - term main contract will oscillate in the range of 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected that the aluminum price will remain oscillating in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. The overall supply shortage pattern has not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the upside space is difficult to open under the expectation of loose supply. It is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market was weak. Macroscopically, there was no more - than - expected positive news after the Fed's interest - rate cut. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the short term, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. It is expected that the market will oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated in a narrow range. The downstream started to replenish goods moderately before the festival, but the market transaction was mainly based on rigid demand. The supply side has certain pressure, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. It is expected that the short - term market will adjust through oscillation, with the main operating range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market mainly oscillated. The fundamentals remained in a tight balance. The supply was supplemented by the increase in imports, and the demand was steadily optimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will oscillate and organize, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was priced at 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was priced at 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was priced at 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The price difference between scrap and refined aluminum in Foshan increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was priced at 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was - 3,145 yuan/ton, an improvement of 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 25,700 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was priced at 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was priced at 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 380 yuan/ton, up 5.56% [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 117,200 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, with the reference range for rebar oscillations at 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton and for hot - rolled coils at 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to converge, and shorting the January spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is advisable [1]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar spot in East China dropped from 3280 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract dropped from 3380 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions showed various changes, such as East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 16 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 855.5 tons, with rebar output dropping by 2.6% to 206.5 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 0.4% to 326.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3% to 1519.7 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.5% to 650.3 tons, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3% to 378.0 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8% to 850.3 tons, rebar apparent demand increased by 6.0% to 210.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 1.3% to 321.8 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a long - biased outlook in a single - side trading, with the reference range of 780 - 850 yuan/ton. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [4]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: The inventory cost of various iron ore powders and spot prices mostly declined. For example, the inventory cost of PB powder dropped from 848.0 yuan/ton to 842.5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased significantly, such as the 01 contract basis of PB powder dropping from 82.0 yuan/ton to 40.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 6.9% to 3324.8 tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 13.2% to 2675.0 tons. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 13930.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5% to 9309.4 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% to 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the Coke 2601 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices showed different trends. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the Coking Coal 05 contract increased by 0.6% to 1314 yuan/ton. The basis of both decreased [6]. - **Supply**: Coke production remained stable, and the output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to increase, the coking plant operation remained stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory**: For coke, coking plants' inventory decreased, while steel mills' and ports' inventory increased. For coking coal, coal mines', ports', and steel mills' inventory decreased, while coal - washing plants', coking plants', and ports' inventory increased [6]. - **Profit**: The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton, and the sample coal mine profit increased by 4.2% to 404 yuan/ton [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to converge [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar 05 contract decreased from 3244 to 3212 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased from 3380 to 3340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of billets and slabs remained unchanged. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions and the profit of rebar in different regions showed various changes, such as the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increasing by 16 [1]. - **Output**: The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 855.5 tons, with rebar output decreasing by 2.6% to 206.5 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 0.4% to 326.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3% to 1519.7 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.5% to 650.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3% to 378.0 tons [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8% to 11.5 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8% to 850.3 tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0% to 210.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.3% to 321.8 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Iron ore is currently in a tight - balance pattern. It is recommended to view it as oscillating upward. The reference range is 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreasing from 848.0 to 842.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various powders decreased significantly, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 82.0 to 40.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 13.2% to 2675.0 tons, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 6.9% to 3324.8 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 0.6% to 10522.5 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7736.9 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 0.9% to 13930.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5% to 9309.4 tons, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% to 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: For coke, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke decreased by 1.3%. For coking coal, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal increased by 3.3%, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal increased by 2.6% [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly coke output remained unchanged at 762 tons. The daily average output of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 1.3% to 872.5 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 1.8% to 450.6 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly molten iron output increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, and the weekly coke output remained unchanged at 762 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.0% to 915.2 tons. The coke inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 2.1% to 66.4 tons, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.8% to 644.7 tons. The coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants increased by 6.4% to 940.4 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 790.3 tons [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 6.5% to - 3.3 tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Data - **Futures-Spot Spread**: F futures-spot spread was 35.98, up 2.63 from the previous day, at the 9.10% historical percentile; H futures-spot spread was 5.49, up 4.66, at the 82.70% historical percentile. IC futures-spot spread was -240.11, down 28.19, at the 0.40% historical percentile; IM futures-spot spread was -281.07, down 21.79, at the 5.00% historical percentile [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For IF, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was -14.80, down 1.80. For other spreads like far - month minus next - month, there were various values and changes [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, and IC/IH had different values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Data - **IRR and Basis**: On September 23, 2025, TS basis had an IRR of 1.4835, down 0.0248 from the previous day, at the 20.60% percentile since listing; TF basis had an IRR of 1.4550, down 0.0067, at the 36.50% percentile; T basis had an IRR of 1.4427, up 0.0779, at the 49.80% percentile; TL basis had an IRR of 1.2299, up 0.4924, at the 33.60% percentile [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For TS, the spread between current - quarter and next - quarter was 0.0760, up 0.0100, at the 41.30% percentile. Similar data were provided for other contracts and spreads [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T had specific values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 8.94 yuan or 1.06% from the previous day; the AG2512 contract closed at 10349 yuan/kg, up 32 yuan or 0.31%. COMEX gold and silver futures also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures was -5.86, up 0.71 from the previous day, at the 1.60% historical percentile; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver futures was -74, unchanged, at the 0.40% historical percentile [5]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and上期所 gold/silver had changes. Interest rates like the 10 - year US Treasury yield and exchange rates like the US dollar index also had fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 2.76% to 59013 kg; the inventory of COMEX silver increased by 0.45% to 526748211 [5]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Data - **Freight Rates**: SCFI (US West) was 1636, down 734.0 or -30.97% from the previous period; SCFI (US East) was 2557, down 750.0 or -22.68% [9][10]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Contracts like EC2602, EC2604, etc., had price declines. The basis of the main contract (EC2510) was -166.4, down 152.1 from the previous day, with a huge percentage change of 1066.76% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3309.29 FTEU on September 24. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased from 32.58 in July to 18.31 in August, a decline of 43.80% [9]. Report 5: Spot Quotes for Container Shipping Core Data - **Shanghai - Europe Future 6 - Week Freight Rates**: On September 22, MAERSK's freight rate was 1576 US dollars/FEU, up 40 US dollars or 2.60% from the previous day; CMA CGM's rate had a 5.98% increase; MSC's rate remained unchanged [12].