1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, due to unplanned production cuts in some styrene plants and maintenance plans from September to October, the supply of styrene has shrunk. Driven by peak - season demand in the downstream EPS/PS industries, overall operations have slightly improved, raw material procurement has followed up, and demand support has strengthened. However, although port inventories continue the downward trend from high levels, the current inventory level may still limit the upside potential of prices. Additionally, attention should be paid to the potential impact of macro - policies and geopolitical factors on the commodity market. The strategy is to take a short - term low - buying approach for EB10, and pay attention to the pressure around 7200; widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [2]. - Recently, the restart of some pure benzene plants has led to a month - on - month increase in production, and the supply side remains at a relatively high level. The demand side is sluggish, with unplanned production cuts in some styrene plants and a general weakening of the operating rates in other downstream industries. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains loose, and the pre - holiday stocking demand has not been significantly released, resulting in weak overall market drivers. In the short term, price trends may be easily affected by geopolitical and macro factors. The strategy is for BZ2603 to fluctuate in tandem with styrene [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (November) on September 17 was $67.95, down $0.52 (-0.8%) from September 16; WTI crude oil (October) was $64.05, down $0.47 (-0.7%); CFR Japan naphtha was $600, up $4 (0.7%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $850, unchanged; CFR China pure benzene was $742, up $1 (0.1%); the spread between pure benzene and naphtha was 133, down 3 (-2.2%); the spread between ethylene and naphtha was 241, down 4 (-1.6%); the listed price of pure benzene by Sinopec East China was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5980 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.1%); BZ futures 2603 was 6057 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.3%); the BZ basis (03) was -77, up 21 (-21.4%); the import profit of pure benzene was -90 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (2.2%); the exchange rate (RMB central parity rate) was 7.1013, down 0.0014 (0.0%) [2]. 3.2 Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China on September 17 was 7180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.1%); EB futures 2510 was 7138 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-0.3%); EB futures 2511 was 7152 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (-0.3%); the EB basis (10) was 42, up 10 (31.3%); EB10 - EB11 was -14, up 4 (-22.2%); the non - integrated EB cash flow was -142 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (10.6%); the integrated EB cash flow was -334 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan (16.5%); the EB - BZ spot spread was 1200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-1.2%); EB03 - BZ03 was 1169 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan (5.2%); EB10 - BZ03 was 1081 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (-0.4%); CFR China styrene was $888/ton, down $1 (-0.1%); the EB import profit was -168 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.2%) [2]. 3.3 Cash Flows of Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream - The cash flow of phenol on September 17 was -392 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan (-12.2%); the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) was -1830 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (4.6%); the cash flow of aniline was 220 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan (26.3%); the Eb2 cash flow was 70 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (16.7%); the PS cash flow was -180 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (-21.7%); another cash flow was -201 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (-6.1%); no information was provided for ABS cash flow [2]. 3.4 Inventories of Pure Benzene and Styrene (Weekly, Longzhong) - On September 15, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.40 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (-6.9%) from September 8; the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.90 million tons, down 1.75 million tons (-9.9%) [2]. 3.5 Changes in the Operating Rates of the Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain (Weekly, Longzhong, Huarui) - The Asian pure benzene operating rate (Huarui) on September 11 was 79.0%, up 1.1% (1.4%) from September 4; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, down 0.1% (-0.1%); the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 54.6%, up 4.8% (9.6%); the phenol operating rate was 68.9%, down 6.3% (-8.4%); the caprolactam operating rate was 86.3%, down 4.2% (-4.6%); the aniline operating rate was 65.5%, down 2.5% (-3.7%); the styrene operating rate was 75.0%, down 4.7% (-5.9%); the downstream PS operating rate was 61.9%, up 0.9% (1.5%); the downstream EPS operating rate was 61.0%, up 8.5% (16.2%); the downstream ABS operating rate was 70.0%, up 1.0% (1.4%) [2].

| 硅铁(SF51) | 54.60% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5728 | -38 | -0.65% | 5766 | 10 | 0.17% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰(SM601) | 6000 | 5990 | 26.60% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 92 | 3260 | 2.90% | 47.10% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3168 | 30 | 30.20% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3420 | 3390 | 0.88% | 热卷(HC2601) | | | | | | 5.02% | 845 | 40 | 34.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 805 | -5 74% | 1735 | -100 | 163 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, and analyzes the changes in total positions, positions of the main contracts, and the important changes of the top 20 seats for each type of futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 17, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 2,680 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 17,674 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,643 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,395 lots during the day, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,435 lots [6]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 49,763 lots. SDIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,478 lots during the day, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,143 lots [8]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 17, the total position of the IH variety increased by 4,021 lots, while the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 4,903 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,853 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,361 lots during the day, while Bank of China Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 421 lots [12]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 19,255 lots. CITIC Futures also had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,802 lots during the day, while Orient Securities Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 366 lots [13]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 17, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 10,820 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 20,158 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,305 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 383 lots during the day, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,750 lots [18]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,800 lots. SDIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 347 lots during the day, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,335 lots [20]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 17, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 579 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 23,457 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 51,301 lots. Huawen Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 679 lots during the day, while Orient Securities Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 873 lots [24]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 75,901 lots. Huawen Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,042 lots during the day, while Guotai Junan Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 2,302 lots [26].

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and industrial products have stabilized and rebounded. Soda ash is driven by macro - sentiment, but its fundamental surplus problem persists. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then go short. - Glass is sensitive to macro - atmosphere fluctuations, and the spot market has good transactions. However, the mid - term inventory in some areas is high, and the industry needs capacity clearance in the long - term. Short - term sentiment drives the market, and the follow - up should focus on policy implementation and peak - season demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Price and Spread**: - Glass: Prices in East China and Central China increased, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts rising slightly. The 05 - contract basis decreased. - Soda ash: Most regional spot prices remained unchanged, the 2505 contract fell slightly, and the 2509 contract rose. The 05 - contract basis increased [1]. - **Supply**: - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output increased. - Glass: The float - glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: - Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory decreased while the delivery - warehouse inventory increased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: - New construction area increased slightly, construction area decreased, completion area decreased slightly, and sales area decreased significantly [1]. Report 2: Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The supply of natural rubber is stable with overseas raw materials rising and inventory decreasing. Demand has some changes with different tire enterprises' policies. The price is expected to be affected by macro factors in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw - material output in the peak - season and the impact of La Nina [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, while the cup - rubber price increased. The basis of whole - latex rubber and non - standard price difference increased [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: - The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: - Production: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July had different changes. - Tire: The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased, and domestic tire production increased in July, but tire exports decreased to zero. - Import: The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased in July [2]. - **Inventory**: - The bonded - area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the warehouse - entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [2]. Report 3: Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The log price is currently stable supported by cost. The arrival volume is low, and the inventory is low, providing strong price support. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the peak - season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - Log futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of some contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: - The port shipment volume and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory in major Chinese ports increased, with increases in Shandong and Jiangsu [4]. - **Demand**: - The daily average outbound volume increased slightly in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu [4]. Report 4: Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View In the short - term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the price is likely to rise. In September, the supply reduction is not obvious, and there may be a slight inventory accumulation. The price is more affected by policy expectations, and the risk is high. Attention should be paid to the self - discipline meeting of polysilicon enterprises [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: - The average price of N - type poly - feedstock increased slightly, and the N - type material basis increased significantly [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: - The main - contract price decreased, and the spreads between different contracts had different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: - Weekly: Silicon wafer and polysilicon production increased. - Monthly: Polysilicon production, import, and export increased, and the net export decreased. Silicon wafer production, export, and net export increased, and the demand increased slightly [5]. - **Inventory**: - Polysilicon inventory increased, silicon wafer inventory decreased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased [5]. Report 5: Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there is news of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship was in tight balance in August, and the supply pressure may decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices, but pay attention to inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: - The price of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon increased, and the basis of some grades changed [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: - The spreads between different contracts had different changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: - Production: National and regional industrial silicon production increased, as well as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon production. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. - Operating Rate: National and regional operating rates increased. - Export: Industrial silicon export volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: - Inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and the social inventory increased slightly, and the contract and non - contract inventories also had small increases [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. In the absence of a clear recession forecast in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly under the loose background. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The short - term aluminum price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If the subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, the aluminum price still faces the risk of falling after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term suppression of base metal prices by the Fed's interest rate cut is expected. The cost of scrap aluminum provides strong support for prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is difficult to open. Short - term prices may be boosted by macro factors, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The short - term price may fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. It is expected that the tin price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [9]. Nickel - The macro environment is improving, but the industrial fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, and the cost support is strengthening, but the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply side has increased news disturbances, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 [14][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,600 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous value. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous value. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous value [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,160 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous value. The import loss was 3,610 yuan/ton, down 315.79 yuan/ton from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin was 272,000 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous value. The import loss was 14,781.16 yuan/ton, down 3.90% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,181 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value. The spot - futures spread was 385 yuan/ton, down 3.75% from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.834% month - on - month; the import volume was 73,000 tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous value. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread was - 120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [14].

广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者:期市有风险 入市需谨慎! 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 #注微信公众号 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年9月18日 | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | 77.80% | F期现价差 | 2.18 | 8.71 | 69.40% | H期现价差 | 3.42 | 0.64 | 74.50% | 76.90% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | -7.64 | 72.50% | IC期现价差 | 18.16 | 86.40% | IM湖腳价差 | 90.0096 | -7.81 | 13.82 | 78.30% | 次月-当月 | -2. ...

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The demand side of steel remains weak in reality and expectation, but there is an expected contraction in the coal supply. The pricing is influenced by both weak steel demand and the expected contraction in coal supply. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the reference range for rebar being 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton and for hot-rolled coil being 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while futures contract prices mostly increased. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures contract prices mostly decreased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and slab price remained unchanged. - Costs of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar and converter rebar increased, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions mostly increased [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4%. Rebar output decreased by 6.8 to 211.9, a decrease of 3.1%, and hot-rolled coil output increased by 10.9 to 325.1, a rise of 3.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. Rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653, a rise of 2.2%, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.0 to 373.3, a decline of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 11.1, a decline of 6.0%. - The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9%. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 4.0 to 198.1, a decline of 2.0%, and hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 20.8 to 326.2, a rise of 6.8% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Unilaterally, it is considered to be in a slightly bullish trend, with the reference range being 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil [4]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed slight changes, and the basis of the 01 contract for various powders decreased significantly. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 19.0, a decline of 2.6%, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 22.0, a rise of 2.3% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron ore powders in Rizhao Port showed slight changes, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5%, and the global shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a decline of 1.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a decline of 2.9% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0, a decline of 4.8% [4]. Report on the Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View After two rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders are starting to replenish stocks in advance. The market generally expects limited downside, and there is a pre - National Day restocking demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips, with the reference range being 1650 - 1800, and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts mostly decreased. - The basis of coke and coking coal futures contracts showed some changes [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 43.8 to 817.3, a rise of 5.4%, and the clean coal output increasing by 23.3 to 442.5, a rise of 5.6% [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.14%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased, indicating an increase in coke demand [6]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the port inventory decreased. - Coking coal inventory in different sectors showed different changes, with the overall inventory at a medium level and slightly decreasing [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: With the slight increase in export data from September 1 - 15 announced by shipping agency ITS, and due to the co - existence of long and short factors in fundamentals, the crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a strong consolidation around 4500 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The NOPA report shows that the soybean oil inventory of member enterprises on August 31 decreased by 9.7% month - on - month, reaching an 8 - month low, which supports the US soybean oil supply. In the domestic market, due to sufficient soybean supply, factories maintain high operating rates. Last week, the operating rate rose to around 65%, increasing soybean oil production and inventory. Although the consumption during the stocking period this year is higher than the off - season, it is lower year - on - year. The speculation of limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter may lead to a possible increase in basis quotes [1]. Corn - In the supply side, the remaining grain in the Northeast is insufficient, but the new season's listing is slow, and the overall arrival volume is average, with some prices rising. In the North China region, the new season's corn is gradually listed, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants is large, with prices running weakly and having room to fall as more new grain is listed. In the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly replenishing their inventories, with no obvious highlights. In the short - term, the market supply and demand are loose, the futures price fluctuates weakly, but it has strong support around 2150. In the medium - term, it will remain weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is expected to bottom - out and rebound, with limited momentum to break below 15 cents per pound in the short - term. However, considering the oversupply of raw sugar, it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The import volume of sugar has increased, and processing sugar factories are fully operational. The actual transaction price of processed sugar has fallen below 6000, occupying the sales area market. The external transportation in Guangxi is blocked, and the domestic sales data in August is poor. As of the end of August, the national industrial inventory is 116.23 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons year - on - year, with still existing spot pressure. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short - term due to the rebound of raw sugar, but the overall rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended in the later stage [6][7]. Cotton - In the supply side, machine - picked seed cotton may gradually start being purchased this week, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. In the demand side, the inventory of downstream finished products is still decreasing, but the shipment has slowed down slightly, and the downstream has insufficient confidence in the traditional peak season, but the rigid demand may still provide support. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long - term [8]. Meal - According to the USDA September supply - demand report, the production increased month - on - month compared with last month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly. The good - quality rate of US soybeans remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand for US soybeans continues. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut meets market expectations, and the futures price lacks positive support, putting pressure on US soybeans. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the domestic cost. In the domestic market, the concern about the supply in the fourth quarter is gradually alleviated, the spot market is loose, oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and terminal users lack enthusiasm for stocking. The supply of soybeans in January - February next year is not loose, and the uncertainty mainly lies in the Sino - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the support of the 01 contract around 3000 [10]. Pork - The increase in slaughter by farmers has continuously realized the spot pressure. Currently, the demand is slowly recovering, but there is still a large uncertainty whether the demand can smoothly absorb the clearly recovering supply. The weight of retail farmers' pigs remains high, and there may be continuous slaughter pressure before the Double Festival. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting on September 16 revealed the intention to further strengthen production capacity regulation, and it is expected that the pressure on farmers to reduce production will increase, with the impact on slaughter mainly reflected after mid - next year. The spot price lacks support, and the futures price should be carefully speculated. The near - month contracts will maintain a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [12][13]. Eggs - Recently, the increase in procurement by traders may drive up the egg price, and it is expected to rise to the annual high. However, the high inventory and the outflow of cold - stored eggs from warehouses may limit the increase. After traders finish replenishing their stocks in the second half of next week, the demand may weaken, and there is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices in some areas [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 to 8690, with a 0.35% increase; the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 52 to 8366, a 0.62% decrease; the basis of Y2601 increased by 82 to 324, a 33.88% increase [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 to 9450, a 0.53% increase; the futures price of P2601 decreased by 28 to 9424, a 0.61% decrease; the basis of P2601 increased by 108 to 26, a 131.71% increase [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 50 to 10110, a 0.50% increase; the futures price of O1601 decreased by 54 to 9999, a 0.54% decrease; the basis of O1601 increased by 104 to 111, a 1485.71% increase [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 28 to 268, a 9.46% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil decreased by 18 to 212, a 7.83% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 1 to 466, a 0.21% decrease [1]. - The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 20 to - 760, a 2.70% decrease; the 2601 spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 6 to - 1058, a 0.56% increase [1]. - The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 20 to 1420, a 1.43% increase; the 2601 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 2 to 1633, a 0.12% decrease [1]. Corn - **Price Changes**: - The FOB price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 5 to 2161, a 0.23% decrease; the basis decreased by 15 to 129, a 10.42% decrease; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 3 to - 5, a 150.00% decrease [2]. - The spot price of corn starch 2511 increased by 10 to 2453, a 0.41% increase; the basis decreased by 10 to 107, an 8.55% decrease; the 11 - 3 spread remained unchanged at - 32 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the Northeast, the remaining grain is insufficient, and the new season's listing is slow. In North China, the new season's corn is gradually listed, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants is large. Deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly replenishing their inventories [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 to 5529, a 0.32% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 to 19, a 17.39% decrease; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 280 to 10988, a 2.48% decrease [6]. - **Spot Market**: The national average price decreased by 20 to 5870, a 0.34% decrease; the Nanning basis decreased by 6 to 360, a 1.64% decrease; the import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 28 to 4433, a 0.63% decrease [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 to 1116.21, a 12.03% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 114 to 1000, a 12.87% increase; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 28.36 to 646.50, a 4.59% increase [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 10 to 13850, a 0.07% decrease; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 2 to - 40, a 14.29% decrease; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 144 to 4615, a 3.03% decrease [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 12 to 15226, a 0.08% increase; the 3128B - 01 contract spread increased by 22 to 1376, a 1.62% increase [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 to 148.17, an 18.6% decrease; the industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 to 89.23, a 3.5% decrease; the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 9.86 to 53.46, a 22.6% increase [8]. Meal - **Price Changes**: - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 to 2980, a 1.65% decrease; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 30 to 3002, a 1.28% decrease; the basis of M2601 decreased by 11 to - 22, a 100.00% decrease [10]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 50 to 2570, a 1.91% decrease; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 58 to 2460, a 2.30% decrease; the basis of RM2601 increased by 8 to 110, a 7.84% increase [10]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 18 to 221, a 7.53% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 22 to 99, an 18.18% decrease; the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.058 to 2.92, a 2.03% increase [10]. Pork - **Futures Market**: The futures price of live hogs 2511 decreased by 160 to 13000, a 1.22% decrease; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 510, a 1.92% increase; the number of open positions increased by 9219 to 94076, a 10.86% increase [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan decreased by 250 to 12950; the daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 26 to 148608, a 0.40% decrease; the weekly white - striped pork price decreased by 0.1 to 19.97, a 0.65% decrease [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The futures price of egg 11 contract increased by 3 to 3116, a 0.10% increase; the 11 - 10 spread increased by 34 to 57, a 147.83% increase; the basis increased by 6 to 651, a 0.89% increase [17]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying chicken chick price decreased by 0.4 to 2.60, a 13.33% decrease; the egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.07 to 2.50, a 2.88% increase; the breeding profit increased by 4.71 to - 17.89, a 20.84% increase [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on September 17, with the main indexes rising, but individual stocks had a mixed trend. The export chain was active, while the consumer goods sector adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the Fed's interest rate cut had a certain impact on the market [2][3]. - The bond market sentiment improved, and the central bank's expected bond - buying supported the bond market. However, there were still uncertainties in the market, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6]. - The Fed's interest rate cut of 25BP was in line with market expectations, and the precious metals market showed a correction after the market digested the news. Gold was expected to enter a high - level shock, and silver was expected to fluctuate within a certain range [7][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, and other metals had different market performances and outlooks. The supply and demand fundamentals and macro - environment affected their prices [12][19]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices were affected by coal supply expectations and demand, and iron ore prices were supported by supply - demand and inventory factors. Coke and coking coal also had their own supply - demand and price trends [40][46][52]. - In the agricultural products sector, the outlook for soybean meal and rapeseed meal was affected by US soybean export expectations, and the pig and corn markets also had their own supply - demand and price characteristics [60][63][65]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On September 17, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 0.80% and 0.20% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.26% and 1.25% respectively [2][3]. - News: The State Council Information Office introduced policies to expand service consumption, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points [3]. - Capital: The A - share trading volume increased slightly, with a total turnover of 2.38 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1145 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to take profit on relevant option call positions after the macro - event is settled [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.31%, 0.13%, 0.10%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the tax - payment period was approaching its end, and the capital situation was expected to ease [5][6]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to conduct range - based operations and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's interpretation was neutral. Gold and silver prices showed corrections, with gold closing at $3659.55 per ounce, down 0.82%, and silver closing at $41.63 per ounce, down 2.09% [7][9]. - Outlook: Gold was expected to enter a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take profit on the option straddle double - buying strategy. Silver was expected to fluctuate between $40.5 - 42.5, and it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping to Europe No relevant information provided. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 18, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased. The consumption was still weak [12]. - Macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the previous easing trading might be basically over [15]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in September [13]. - Demand: The copper rod operating rate was weak in the peak season, and the downstream demand was suppressed [14]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [14]. - Logic: The previous easing trading might end, and the copper price was expected to be affected by the macro - market style shift and US economic data [15]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81500 [15]. Alumina - Spot: On September 17, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased [16]. - Supply: The domestic alumina production increased in August, and the operating capacity was expected to continue to increase slightly in September [17]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipt registration increased [17]. - Logic: The market was in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply - side disturbances in Guinea provided short - term support, but the overall supply was still excessive [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200, and it was recommended to pay attention to supply - side factors [18]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 17, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased in August, and the aluminum - water ratio increased [19]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate improved during the peak season [19]. - Inventory: The domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a mixed trend, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [20]. - Logic: The macro - level interest rate cut had a marginal weakening effect on the aluminum price. The supply was high, and the cost support weakened. The inventory reduction was still uncertain [21]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20600 - 21000 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 17, the spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased in August, and the operating rate was expected to increase slightly in September [22]. - Demand: The terminal orders improved slightly, but the inventory was still accumulating [22][23]. - Logic: The cost was strongly supported, and the demand was expected to improve during the peak season. The price was expected to remain firm [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20600, and it was recommended to consider the arbitrage strategy [23]. Zinc - Spot: On September 17, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the downstream orders were general [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee was stable, and the global zinc mine production increased. The domestic refined zinc production was expected to decline in September [24]. - Demand: The primary processing industry's operating rate increased during the peak season, but the market was still in a wait - and - see mood [25]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [26]. - Logic: The domestic zinc price was suppressed by the supply expectation, while the LME zinc price was strong. The zinc price was expected to fluctuate [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 17, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot market trading was cold [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports had different trends, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand: The solder operating rate increased in August, but the overall demand was still weak [29]. - Inventory: The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased, and the social inventory increased [29]. - Logic: The supply was tight, and the tin price was expected to remain high and fluctuate. It was recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery [30]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 265000 - 285000 [30]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 17, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30]. - Supply: The refined nickel production was at a high level, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [31]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and stainless steel was general, while the demand from ternary materials for nickel sulfate improved [31]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, the domestic social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory decreased [31]. - Logic: The macro - environment was positive, but the supply was expected to be loose in the medium - term. The nickel price was expected to fluctuate within a range [32]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 125000 [32]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 17, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased slightly [33]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chromium - iron price increased [33]. - Supply: The domestic stainless steel production was expected to increase in September [34]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt decreased [34]. - Logic: The macro - environment improved, but the downstream demand in the peak season was not as expected. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate between 12800 - 13400 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 17, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [36]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production increased in August, and the supply was affected by previous production cuts and imports [37]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the orders in September were expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [38]. - Logic: The policy was favorable, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. The price was expected to be strong and fluctuate [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract was expected to fluctuate around 70000 - 75000 [40]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The steel price decreased slightly, and the basis of rebar was 48 yuan [40]. - Cost and profit: The cost was affected by production restrictions, and the steel profit decreased [40][41]. - Supply: The iron element production increased in the first 8 months, and the steel production showed different trends this week [42]. - Demand: The five - major steel products' apparent demand was basically flat year - on - year, and the export growth was limited [43]. - Inventory: The five - major steel products' inventory increased, mainly due to rebar [44]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was expected to fluctuate within a range, affected by weak demand and coal supply expectations [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 17, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were mixed [46]. - Futures: The iron ore 2601 contract rose slightly [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was different [47]. - Demand: The steel mill's iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, and the profit margin decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival decreased [49]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's inventory increased [50]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market was in a tight - balance situation, and the price was expected to be bullish. It was recommended to go long on the 2601 contract [51]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: The coking coal futures fluctuated and fell, and the spot price showed signs of stabilization [52]. - Supply: The coal mine production increased, and the import coal price fluctuated with the futures [56]. - Demand: The iron - making and coking production increased, and the demand was supported [54]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [55]. - Viewpoint: The coking coal market was expected to rebound, and it was recommended to go long on the 2601 contract [56]. Coke - Spot and futures: The coke futures fluctuated and fell, and the second - round price cut by steel mills was implemented [57]. - Supply: The coking production increased due to previous profit increases [59]. - Demand: The steel mill's production increased, and the demand for coke was supported [58]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [59]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was expected to bottom out and rebound, and it was recommended to go long on the 2601 contract [59]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was mixed [60]. - Fundamental news: Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts were adjusted, and the US soybean production was uncertain [61]. - Market outlook: The domestic soybean meal market was under pressure, and the support at 3000 for the 01 contract should be noted [62]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The live pig price decreased slightly [63]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased [63][64]. - Market outlook: The supply pressure was high, and the near - month contract was expected to be weak. The 1 - 5 spread arbitrage opportunity should be noted [64]. Corn - Spot price: The corn price in Northeast China was stable, while that in North China decreased [65]. - Fundamental news: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port changed, with corn inventory decreasing [66]. - Market outlook: The short - term corn market was in a loose supply - demand situation, and the price was expected to be weak. The support at 2150 should be noted [67].