1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the crude palm oil futures have adjusted at a high level. Supported by potential positive factors such as slow - down or decline in production due to rainstorms and continuous improvement in exports, the crude palm oil futures may return above 4,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market is in high - level shock adjustment, and there is a risk of a rapid downward break in prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The biofuel blending obligation redistribution proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency lacks a clear mechanism for small refinery exemptions, leading to short - selling of CBOT soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and consumption is increasing. The market is concerned about the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market supply and demand are slightly loose, the futures price fluctuates weakly, but there is strong support around 2,150. In the medium term, the situation remains weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. 2.3 Meal - The bio - diesel blending policy has high uncertainty, the demand prospect of US soybeans is unclear, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The domestic concern about supply in the fourth quarter is gradually alleviated, but there are many short - term negative factors, suppressing soybean meal, yet there is a basis for subsequent rebound [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - The slaughter of the breeding end increases, and the spot pressure is continuously realized. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. The Ministry of Agriculture intends to strengthen production capacity regulation, the spot price lacks support, and the near - month contracts are in weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [6][7]. 2.5 Sugar - The supply pressure causes the raw sugar price to drop significantly. The import volume increases, the actual transaction price of processed sugar falls below 6,000, and the domestic sales data in August is poor. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak pattern [10]. 2.6 Cotton - In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range. In the long term, it will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [11]. 2.7 Eggs - Recently, the increase in demand may drive up the egg price, which is expected to reach the annual high. However, the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On September 18, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,284 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The basis of Y2601 was 256 yuan/ton, down 20.99% [1]. - **Palm oil**: On September 18, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, down 1.90%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,304 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The basis of P2601 was - 34 yuan/ton, down 230.77% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On September 18, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,060 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the futures price of Ol601 was 9,984 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The basis of Ol601 was 76 yuan/ton, down 31.53% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On September 18, the futures price of corn 2511 was 2,177 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the basis was 103 yuan/ton, down 20.16% [2]. - **Corn starch**: On September 18, the futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2,471 yuan/ton, up 0.73%; the basis was 89 yuan/ton, down 16.82% [2]. 3.3 Meal - **Soybean meal**: On September 18, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2,950 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; the futures price of M2601 was 2,993 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The basis of M2601 was - 43 yuan/ton, down 95.45% [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On September 18, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,470 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The basis of RM2601 was 100 yuan/ton, down 9.09% [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - On September 18, the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 12,830 yuan/ton, down 1.31%; the spot price in Henan was 12,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Sugar - On September 18, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 0.99%; the spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 0.51% [10]. 3.6 Cotton - On September 18, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 13,725 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. 3.7 Eggs - On September 18, the futures price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,132 yuan/500KG, up 0.51%; the egg - producing area price was 3.73 yuan/jin, down 0.91% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the reports regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping industry. They provide detailed data on price differences, price changes, and historical percentile rankings, which can help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in these sectors. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **IF Contracts**: The IF spot - futures price difference is -10.91, with a change of -13.09 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 40.50%. Different IF inter - period price differences also show various values and changes, such as the next - month minus current - month being -11.20 with a change of 0.20 and a historical 1 - year percentile of 34.80% [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The IH spot - futures price difference is -2.03, with a change of -5.45, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 46.40%. IH inter - period price differences have their own values and percentile rankings [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The IC spot - futures price difference is -28.28, with a change of -20.65, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 57.50%. IC inter - period price differences show different characteristics [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The IM spot - futures price difference is -21.60, with a change of -13.79, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 75.00%. IM inter - period price differences are also presented [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as IC/IF, ICMH, IF/IH, and IM/IF are provided, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: The TS basis is 1.5173, with a change of -0.0347, and the percentile since listing is 22.10%. TF, T, and TL bases also have their own values, changes, and percentile rankings [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are given, including values, changes, and percentile rankings since listing [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, etc. are presented with their values, changes, and percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metals - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices of gold and silver are reported, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 824.10 yuan/gram on September 18, down 10.98 yuan or -1.31% from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of gold and silver in different markets are provided, including London, Shanghai Gold Exchange, etc., along with their price changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis values for gold and silver, such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., are given, along with their changes and historical 1 - year percentile rankings [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver,上期所金/银, and interest rates (10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, etc.) and exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) are presented with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory and position data for gold and silver in different markets are provided, including上期所黄金库存,上期所白银库存, COMEX gold inventory, etc., along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, MAERSK's price on September 19 was 1570 dollars/FEU, up 18 dollars or 1.16% from the previous day [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes such as SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US West route), and Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI) are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Fundamental data including global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators in Shanghai, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current pricing of steel is affected by weak steel demand and the expected contraction of coal supply. With the impact of the contraction in coking coal supply and restocking before the National Day, the downside space is expected to be limited, and the price will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3399 to 3367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased from 173 to 168 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), while the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7 (0.3%) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 (0.8%), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 (6.0%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for multiple varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder decreased from 80.1 to 40.3 (- 49.7%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 (29.6%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3 (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 (0.6%) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 22 to 1657 (1.3%). The price of the coking coal 01 - contract decreased by 30 to 1204 (- 2.4%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 (5.1%). The output of raw coal in main producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: Short - term expected to be volatile and weak. PX11 to be treated as oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Short - term to oscillate between 4600 - 4800; TA1 - 5 to be rolled in reverse arbitrage. Mid - term supply - demand is weak [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: 9 - month outlook is positive, but Q4 is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. EG to be observed unilaterally; EG1 - 5 for reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Low - level support exists, but rebound drive is weak. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; processing fees to oscillate between 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: PR to follow cost, with limited upside for processing fees. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; main - contract processing fees to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures are weakly operating. Supply is rising while demand lacks growth. Policy intervention on coal prices cannot reverse the surplus. Short - term, the futures are expected to be weak [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decline due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, but overall, it may continue to be weak in the short - term. Spot prices may stabilize [11]. - **PVC**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decrease due to maintenance, and demand is slightly improving. Cost support is at the bottom. It can be short - sold at high levels [11]. Methanol Industry - Supply is at a high level, and inventory is relatively healthy. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Valuation is neutral. The market is wavering between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations. Follow - up focus on inventory inflection points [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. Short - term price is affected by geopolitics and macro factors. BZ2603 to follow styrene oscillations [60]. - **Styrene**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. Port inventory is declining, but still restricts price increases. EB10 to be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 - BZ11 to be widened at low levels [60]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating. The refined oil market provides support, but macro - economic concerns limit the upside. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Unilateral observation is recommended [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: PP has more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, with a weak basis. PE has more maintenance, a rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand orders are poor. Focus on pre - holiday restocking [68]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) decreased by 0.8% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% to 6680 yuan/ton; DTY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7960 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased; PX - crude decreased by 1% to 397 dollars/ton [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2% to 4630 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 1% to 4712 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory decreased by 460,000 tons to 9.4 million tons; EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% to 4297 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices**: Urea 01 contract decreased by 0.65% to 1670 yuan/ton; methanol main - contract decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: Shandong (small - particle) decreased by 0.61% to 1640 yuan/ton; FOB China: small - particle remained unchanged at 424 dollars/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82% to 195,600 tons; enterprise inventory increased by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.4% to 2500 yuan/ton; V2509 decreased by 0.7% to 5347 yuan/ton [11]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port increased by 1.3% to 395 dollars/ton; export profit increased by 120.2% to 5.8 yuan/ton [11]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 3% to 650 dollars/ton; export profit decreased by 77.2% to 13.5 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PVC total operating rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%; alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5% to 82.8% [11]. Methanol Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2601 decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia north - line spot decreased by 0.95% to 2090 yuan/ton [55]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%; methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% to 1.558 million tons [55]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%; downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08% [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5% to 738 dollars/ton; pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 4.5% to 130 dollars/ton [60]. - **Styrene - related Prices**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7100 yuan/ton; EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% to 7062 yuan/ton [60]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9% to 134,000 tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% to 159,000 tons [60]. - **Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 79.096%; domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 5.9% to 75% [60]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; SC decreased by 1.27% to 490 yuan/barrel [63]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13% to 201.4 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% to 702.5 dollars/ton [63]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: European gasoline decreased by 2.44% to 19.03 dollars/barrel; US diesel decreased by 2.48% to 34.45 dollars/barrel [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2601 decreased by 0.79% to 7188 yuan/ton; PP2601 decreased by 0.8% to 6926 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP raffia decreased by 0.59% to 6760 yuan/ton; North China LDPE film decreased by 0.56% to 7120 yuan/ton [68]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 451,000 tons; PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 582,000 tons [68]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%; PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. The Fed's interest rate cuts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries all play important roles in determining the market trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, the A - share market shows a trend of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon after overseas interest rate cuts; in the bond market, the situation is still intertwined with multiple factors; and in the commodity market, different commodities have different supply - demand and price trends [2][6][17]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the major A - share indexes rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, and most sectors and stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell, and the 09 contracts are about to expire with the basis close to neutral [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and inflation is still relatively high [3]. - **Funding**: On September 18, the A - share trading volume increased significantly, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching holiday, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [4]. Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan, but the tightness of the inter - bank market funds did not change significantly. The influence of the tax period has not completely subsided, and the central bank's hedging efforts at the end of the quarter need to be concerned [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range, and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Trump proposed to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the US Supreme Court temporarily froze a relevant ruling. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, and limited long - term bond sales [7]. - **Market Performance**: The market digested the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, the risk appetite increased, the US stocks strengthened, and gold continued to decline slightly. The international silver price rebounded and rose [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy path has dual characteristics, which may suppress the US dollar index. Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices below 3600 US dollars. Silver is expected to be boosted by various factors, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9][11]. - **Funding**: The positions of gold and silver ETFs remain high, but some institutions have taken profits [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 18, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next 6 weeks are provided by different shipping companies [12]. - **Index**: As of September 15, the SCFIS European Line Index fell by 8.06%, and the US West Line Index rose by 37.67%. As of September 12, the SCFI Composite Index fell by 3.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased by 7.5% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [12]. - **Logic**: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the spot inflection point is expected to appear in mid - to - late October. It is possible to pay attention to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts in November [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is bearish, and it is possible to consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 19, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement volume increased with improved spot trading [13]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the previous loose trading may end. Attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading [14]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September due to factors such as maintenance and supply shortage [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the copper price callback, but the downstream terminal demand for copper prices above 80,000 yuan is weak [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic**: After the FOMC meeting, the copper price oscillated. The previous loose trading may end, and the market may switch to recovery trading. The supply - demand situation is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides support, and in the short - term, the copper price may be strongly oscillated [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 18, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed with a downward trend in prices [18]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly in September. However, some enterprises were affected by factors such as production restrictions and maintenance [19]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory decreased, and the registered quantity of warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Logic**: The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply in Guinea has more disturbing factors, which provides short - term support, but the overall supply is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 2900 - 3200 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 yuan [20]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the trading activity increased with a rising trend in the premium [21]. - **Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased, reflecting the consumption resilience [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream is in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season, and the operating rates of some industries have recovered [22]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased [23]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the aluminum price. The domestic economic recovery provides support for aluminum demand, but the upward push of macro - factors has weakened. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, and the demand improvement needs to be further observed. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [24]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [25]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly in September [25]. - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, and it showed a marginal improvement in September [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the social inventory increased, and some areas were close to full capacity [26]. - **Logic**: The cast aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and fell. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price. The terminal orders are slightly improving, and the pre - holiday stocking demand will support the spot price. It is expected that the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, it is possible to consider the long - AD short - AL spread arbitrage when the spread is above 500 [28]. Zinc - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was light [28]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate increased, and the production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production will decrease slightly in September [29]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries generally increased in the peak season, but the procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the domestic spot premium was at a low level [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [31]. - **Logic**: The zinc price is affected by the expectation of loose supply. The demand in the peak season is fair, and the domestic and foreign markets show differentiation. The upward space is limited, and the downward space is also restricted by factors such as low inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. Tin - **Spot**: On September 18, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot market trading improved slightly [33]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore imports in July decreased, and the supply from Africa and Myanmar decreased. The tin ingot imports increased [33][34]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a state of "weak supply and demand". Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden September and Silver October" [34]. - **Inventory**: As of September 17, the LME inventory remained unchanged, the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory increased [35]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the tin price. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 18, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased [37]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly [37]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is general, the demand for alloys is good, and the price of nickel sulfate has risen strongly in the short - term but may face pressure in the medium - term [37]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is at a relatively high level, the domestic social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory decreased [38]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the macro - environment is weak. The supply of nickel ore is generally stable, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [40]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions decreased [40]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The cost of chromium ore provides support, and the price of chromium iron has risen [40]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to increase in September, mainly in the 300 - series [41]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [41]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price oscillated narrowly. The macro - environment is improving, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized. The cost provides support, and the inventory pressure has eased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of September 18, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the market was relatively calm [43]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased in August and continued to increase in the week of September 18. The supply is affected by new projects, lithium feldspar processing, and imports [44]. - **Demand**: The demand is relatively optimistic, and the seasonal performance is not obvious. The orders of battery cells are generally good, and the demand in September and October is expected to increase [44][45]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased in the previous week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [45]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the domestic policy has been digested. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference price range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar converged [47]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply recovery expectations. The profit of steel products has declined significantly since August, and the current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements from January to August increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the first nine months. The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained high [47]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of the five major steel products from January to August was basically flat year - on - year, and the demand in August - September decreased seasonally. The supply of rebar decreased and the demand increased, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased [47]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products has increased since August, mainly due to the increase in rebar inventory. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [48]. - **View**: The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan for rebar and 3300 - 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand [49]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 18, the price of mainstream iron ore powders changed slightly [50]. - **Futures**: The 2601 and 2605 contracts of iron ore decreased slightly [50]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [51]. - **Demand**: As of September 18, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [52]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased significantly last week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The monthly import volume increased [53]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [53]. - **View**: The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced situation. The supply is expected to change, and the demand is supported by the relatively high pig iron output. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to go long on the 26

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report presents the performance of various commodities during different periods of the Fed's interest rate cuts, including COMEX gold, COMEX silver, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI crude, INE crude, etc., showing the percentage changes of each commodity in different time - frames [1] Group 2: Commodity Performance Summary Precious Metals - COMEX gold had percentage changes ranging from - 11.39% to 36.80% in different Fed interest - rate cut periods, with a 0.28% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - COMEX silver's changes were between - 24.98% and 10.73%, and it had a - 5.72% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Energy - ICE Brent's percentage changes were from - 39.88% to 22.16%, with a - 0.07% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - NYMEX WTI crude's changes were between - 45.66% and 18.86%, and it had a - 5.24% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - INE crude had a 5.38% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Base Metals - LME copper's percentage changes were from - 59.75% to 1.49%, with a 0.31% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - LME aluminum had a - 1.84% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - SHFE aluminum's changes varied, and one of the SHFE aluminum had a 3.96% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Agricultural Products - CBOT soybeans' percentage changes were from - 11.45% to 18.77%, with a - 0.98% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CBOT wheat's changes were between - 29.63% and 17.72%, and it had a - 2.37% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CBOT corn's changes were from - 5.53% to 25.35%, with a - 1.39% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] Others - CRB industrial spot's percentage changes were from - 36.13% to 1.06%, with a - 2.14% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - CRB composite spot's changes were between - 27.20% and 11.97%, and it had a 0.82% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1] - Nanhua Commodity Index had a 2.69% change from September 19, 2024, to December 19, 2024 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The report presents the performance of various commodities during different Fed rate - cut periods from 1990 to 2024, showing the percentage changes of each commodity over specific time intervals [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - COMEX Gold: Percentage changes during different periods were - 11.39%, 6.05%, - 0.67%, 36.80%, 16.44%, 3.97%, - 7.74%, 0.28% respectively [1]. - COMEX Silver: Percentage changes were - 9.35%, 6.44%, - 8.01%, 7.60%, - 17.18%, 10.73%, - 24.98%, - 5.72% respectively [1]. Crude Oil - ICE Brent: Percentage changes were 1.98%, - 21.77%, 22.16%, - 39.88%, - 2.54%, - 39.07%, - 0.07% respectively [1]. - NYMEX WTI Crude Oil: Percentage changes were - 19.16%, 2.13%, - 20.03%, 18.86%, - 45.66%, - 0.64%, - 38.43%, - 5.24% respectively [1]. - INE Crude Oil: Percentage changes were 1.45%, - 34.08%, 5.38% respectively [1]. Base Metals - LME Copper: Percentage changes were 1.49%, - 14.66%, - 4.45%, - 2.59%, - 59.75%, - 1.01%, - 6.63%, 0.31% respectively [1]. - LME Aluminum: Percentage changes were - 38.40%, - 1.01%, - 2.72%, - 1.84% respectively [1]. - SHFE Aluminum: Different SHFE Aluminum data showed various percentage changes such as - 16.44%, - 5.34%, - 3.28%, - 62.48%, 1.52%, - 6.80%, - 2.66%, - 18.00%, 7.92%, - 5.72%, - 45.97%, - 0.11%, - 3.46%, 3.96% [1]. Agricultural Products - CBOT Soybean: Percentage changes were 18.77%, 10.38%, 12.28%, - 11.45%, 7.84%, - 8.69%, - 0.98% respectively [1]. - CBOT Wheat: Percentage changes were 17.72%, 4.12%, 12.43%, - 29.63%, 6.04%, - 5.73%, - 2.37% respectively [1]. - CBOT Corn: Percentage changes were - 5.53%, 29.29%, 3.50%, 2.35%, 25.35%, - 3.65%, - 6.44%, - 1.39% respectively [1]. - DCE E -: Percentage changes were 6.11%, - 26.77%, 0.47%, 1.56%, 2.53% respectively [1]. - DCE Corn: Percentage changes were - 11.57%, - 5.64%, 2.99%, - 4.96% respectively [1]. - ICE 11 -号 Sugar: Percentage changes were 16.38%, 12.75%, - 22.09%, 21.33%, 2.47%, - 19.43%, - 6.05% respectively [1]. - ICE 2 -号 Cotton: Percentage changes were 9.77%, - 13.32%, - 17.47%, - 32.04%, 3.37%, - 6.07%, 8.56% respectively [1]. - CZCE White Sugar: Percentage changes were - 22.03%, 6.90%, - 4.04%, - 10.48% respectively [1]. - CZCE Cotton: Percentage changes were - 21.74%, 0.96%, - 8.67%, 0.14% respectively [1]. Other Commodities - SHFE Rebar: Percentage changes were - 12.45%, 3.86%, - 6.86% respectively [1]. - DCE Iron Ore: Percentage changes were - 16.99%, 2.64%, - 12.20% respectively [1]. - SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil: Percentage changes were - 11.37%, 1.42%, - 7.12% respectively [1]. - DCE Polypropylene: Percentage changes were - 4.23%, - 5.35%, 1.41% respectively [1]. - CRB Industrial Spot: Percentage changes were - 7.25%, - 6.54%, - 5.22%, 1.06%, - 36.13%, - 2.09%, - 4.13%, - 2.14% respectively [1]. - CRB Composite Spot: Percentage changes were - 6.81%, - 4.11%, - 6.63%, 11.97%, - 27.20%, - 3.12%, - 4.62%, 0.82% respectively [1]. - Nanhua Commodity Index: Percentage changes were - 36.96%, - 1.20%, - 6.22%, 2.69% respectively [1].

Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to maintain strong consolidation around 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the domestic supply is abundant, and the spot basis quote may rise as soybean supply decreases [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Oil**: On September 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,690 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,366 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 33.88%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by about 10,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. The basis of P2601 increased by 131.71%. The import cost increased by 1.03%, and the import profit decreased by 79.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade - 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The futures price of O1601 was down 0.54%. The basis of O1601 increased by 1485.71% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased. The soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread showed different trends [1]. Group 2: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price may fluctuate weakly, with strong support around 2,150 yuan/ton. In the medium - term, it will remain weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased, and the basis decreased by 10.42%. The 11 - 3 spread decreased by 150.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 51.28%, and the import profit increased by 0.82% [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.41%. The basis decreased by 8.55%. The starch - corn spread increased by 5.42% [2]. Group 3: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market has现货 pressure, and the futures price may stabilize around 5,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 2.33%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 17.39%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 0.67%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 2.48% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Guosan and Kunming decreased. The Nanning basis decreased by 1.64%, and the Kunming basis increased by 2.64%. The import prices of Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar in the country increased year - on - year. The production and cumulative sales rate in Guangxi also increased, while the monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased. The industrial inventory in the country increased, and the import volume increased significantly [6]. Group 4: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and they will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.72%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%. The position of the主力 contract decreased by 0.27%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 3.03% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly. The difference between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 6.75% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories decreased. The import volume increased, and the export volume of textile products showed different trends. The downstream finished product inventory was still decreasing, but the shipment slowed down [8]. Group 5: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The supply - demand situation of US soybeans is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The domestic supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be sufficient, but there is uncertainty in the supply from January to February next year. Attention should be paid to the support of the 01 contract around 3,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.65%, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 1.28%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 100.00%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in November increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.91%, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 2.30%. The basis of RM2601 increased by 7.84%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [10]. - **Soybeans**: The prices of domestic and imported soybeans were stable or decreased slightly. The bases of the first and second - grade soybean contracts increased [10]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The oil - meal ratio and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal showed different trends [10]. Group 6: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The spot price of pigs lacks support. The near - month futures contracts will maintain a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2511 and 2601 decreased. The 11 - 1 spread increased by 1.92%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 10.86% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.40%, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.65% [12]. - **Other Indicators**: The self - breeding profit decreased by 68.02%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 28.27%. The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [12][15]. Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 0.10%, and the price of the 10 - contract decreased by 1.00%. The 11 - 10 spread increased by 147.83% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 0.89% [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings decreased by 13.33%, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 0.22%. The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.88%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.84% [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved, with industrial products stabilizing and rebounding. Soda ash's fundamentals are weak, but it has been boosted by macro - sentiment. However, the supply - demand pattern remains bearish, and short - selling opportunities can be sought after rebounds [1]. - Glass is sensitive to macro - atmosphere fluctuations, and the spot market has seen good transactions. But mid - stream inventory in some areas is high. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance, and short - term sentiment drives the market, with attention on policy implementation and downstream stocking [1]. Rubber - The supply side of natural rubber shows stable fundamentals with overseas raw materials stopping decline and inventory decreasing. The demand side has mixed situations among tire enterprises. The price is expected to be affected by macro factors in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the main production areas [2]. Logs - Log futures closed up yesterday. The spot price of the main delivery product was unchanged. Inventory increased, demand slightly rose, and supply decreased. Log prices are currently stable with cost support, and a long - position strategy is recommended with attention on post - season sales [4]. Polysilicon - In the short - term, the market is trading on the expectation of September policy implementation, and the market is prone to rise and hard to fall. In September, the supply reduction is not obvious, and there may be a slight inventory build - up. The price is more influenced by policy expectations, and caution is advised [5]. Industrial Silicon - The cost of industrial silicon is rising, and there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand was in tight balance in August, and a long - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Prices in different regions had varying changes, with the 2505 and 2509 contracts slightly rising, and the 05 - contract basis slightly falling [1]. - Soda ash: Most regional prices were unchanged, the 2505 contract slightly fell, the 2509 contract slightly rose, and the 05 - contract basis slightly rose [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output increased, with a 1.24% increase in the operating rate and a 1.25% increase in weekly output [1]. - Glass: The float glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume had small changes, with a 0.38% increase in float glass daily melting volume [1]. Inventory - Glass: Factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [1]. - Soda ash: Factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [1]. Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, while the cup - lump price increased [2]. Fundamental Data - The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July had different changes. Tire production increased, but exports decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [2]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory and Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse inventory decreased [2]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices slightly rose, and the spot prices of main delivery products were unchanged [4]. Supply - Port shipments and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [4]. Inventory and Demand - National inventory increased, and the daily出库量 slightly rose [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type polysilicon slightly increased, and the N - type material basis increased [5]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract price slightly decreased, and inter - month spreads had different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production increased, and monthly import and export data also changed [5]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon slightly increased, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon had different changes [6]. Inter - month Spreads - Inter - month spreads had different changes [6]. Fundamental Data - National and regional industrial silicon production and operating rates increased, and the production of related downstream products also changed [6]. Inventory Changes - Regional and social inventories had small increases [6].

决议声明：本次会议大部分官员支持降息 25 个 BP，仅有总统特朗普提名刚宣誓就职的新理事——美 国白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰支持降息 50 个 BP。决议声明删除了劳动力市场稳健的说辞， 增加了就业增长放缓和失业率略升的表述，改为就业面临的下行风险加重，失业率略有上升但仍处于 低位，另外表述"通胀已上升，一定程度上仍处于高位"，同时声明增加"委员会关注其双重使命所 面临的风险，并判断就业下行风险已增加"的表达，表明降息的决定是"鉴于风险平衡已转变"。 点阵图预测及经济预测：会议公布最新点阵图预测显示超半数官员支持年内再降息两次以上，幅度较 6 月预测上调，但多数官员预计明后年仅各降息一次。经济预测上，美联储上调了今明后三年的 GDP 增长预期，下调明后两年的失业率预期、上调明后两年的 PCE 通胀以及核心 PCE 通胀预期，到 2028 年 通胀回落至联储的长期目标水平 2%。 主席新闻发布会：鲍威尔在发布会上表示本次降息属风险管理，降息 50 个 BP 未得到广泛支持。他表 示近期极为罕见的经济局势导致联储利率预测分歧大，特别是就业数据修正大主要源于调查回复率低， AI 可能冲击就业入门级岗位、尤 ...