Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The raw material prices are strong, overseas ship arrivals are few, and inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals remain strong with expected upward potential. The 01 contract is expected to trade between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Monitor the raw material output during the peak - production season in the main producing areas and consider shorting at high levels if raw material supply increases smoothly [1]. Logs - The recent decline in log futures prices is due to the weakening cost support from lower foreign quotes and low acceptance of delivery products in the 09 contract. However, the fundamentals are still good with low arrivals, low inventory, and stable demand. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. Consider buying the 2601 contract at low levels [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash market has a slight rebound after a period of weakness, following the logic of fundamental oversupply. Although inventory decreased on Monday, it was just a transfer to the mid - and downstream. In the medium term, after the second - quarter PV glass installation rush, the growth of PV glass production capacity has slowed, and the float glass production capacity is flat with supply - demand pressure. Soda ash demand has no growth expectation, and inventory may face further pressure without actual capacity reduction. Track policy implementation and alkali plant load adjustments [4]. Polysilicon - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit at 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low levels and using put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [5]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are weakly volatile. The cost is expected to rise due to increasing raw material prices and higher electricity prices in the southwest during the dry season. Although production has increased, there are signs of capacity reduction. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. Consider buying at low levels, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai on September 3 was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 870 yuan/ton, down 4.02% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread on September 3 was - 952 yuan/ton, up 1.60% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20% from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in June was 421,600 tons, up 1.61% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - On September 3, the price of log 2511 was 798.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 12 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [3]. Supply - In July, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from the previous month. The main port inventory in New Zealand was 470,000 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. Demand - As of August 29, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 62,000 cubic meters, down 4% from the previous week [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quote on August 29 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The glass 2505 contract price was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quote on August 29 was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,357 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate on August 29 was 82.47%, down 6.79% from the previous week. The weekly soda ash output was 719,000 tons, down 6.79% [4]. Inventory - As of August 29, the glass factory inventory was 62.566 million weight boxes, down 1.64% from the previous week. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.8675 million tons, down 2.26% [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock on September 3 was 51,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type polysilicon feedstock basis was - 660 yuan/ton, down 76% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price on September 3 was 52,160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was 30 yuan/ton, up 100% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, up 6.53% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output was 131,700 tons, up 23.31% [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon on September 3 was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 610 yuan/ton, down 3.17% [6]. Monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread on September 3 was - 8,475 yuan/ton, down 21,287.50% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in August was 385,700 tons, up 14.01% from the previous month. The national industrial silicon production rate was 55.87%, up 6.20% [6]. Inventory Changes - As of September 3, the Xinjiang inventory was 119,100 tons, down 0.83% from the previous day. The social inventory was 541,000 tons, down 0.37% [6].

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX supply is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and good short - process benefits. Demand has some support but limited upside. PX11 is under observation, with support around 6600 and attention on oil price trends [2]. - PTA supply - demand is near a tight balance in September. Although the device maintenance execution is not as expected, the low absolute price is supported, but the driving force is limited. TA is under observation, paying attention to the support around 4600 and oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol has a "strong reality, weak expectation" supply - demand pattern. Short - term futures have limited downside, but the fourth - quarter supply - demand is weak. Attention is paid to the support of EG2601 around 4300 [2]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve in September, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows raw material fluctuations, with the disk processing fee oscillating between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip supply and procurement may both decrease in September, with inventory expected to increase. PR follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee has limited upside [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices fell due to weak demand and high - supply pressure. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export demand is also under pressure. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may be under pressure. Attention is paid to the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [8]. Methanol Industry - Methanol supply is expected to increase with the return of inland maintenance devices and high - level imports in September. Traditional downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure due to significant inventory accumulation, and attention is paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [10][11][12]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about increased OPEC+ supply in the fourth quarter. The disk may run weakly, with support levels for WTI at [62, 63], Brent at [65, 66], and SC at [470, 480]. Options can wait for opportunities to expand after increased volatility [19]. Polyolefin Industry - PE supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term, and PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation. Downstream industry开工率 has increased, but new orders have limited support. In September, the market shows a "supply - decrease, demand - increase" pattern, and it is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda market is supported by rigid demand, with low inventory in Shandong. The spot price may remain firm, and the disk callback space is limited. Attention is paid to downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [48]. - PVC supply - demand remains oversupplied. Supply is expected to increase in September, while demand remains weak. It is expected to continue weak and volatile, with cost - end support [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, while demand support is weak. Short - term absolute price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not fall deeply [53]. - Styrene supply is high in the short - term, with weak driving force. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement later. EB10 can be lightly long at low positions, and mainly short on rebounds later [53]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, WTI crude oil (October) was at 63.97 dollars/barrel, down 1.62 dollars or 2.5% from the previous day. Various polyester product prices and spreads changed, such as PTA, MEG, and different polyester fiber prices [2]. - **Inventory and Expected Arrival**: MEG port inventory was 44.9 million tons on September 1, down 10.2% from August 25, and the expected arrival was 4.4 million tons, up 122.7% [2]. - **Industry开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 75.6% on August 29, down 0.7% from August 22; PTA开工率 was 70.4%, down 1.2% [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 3, the 01 - contract futures price was 1714 yuan/ton, down 1.83% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 18.80 million tons on September 5, down 0.93% from September 4. Factory inventory increased slightly, and order days decreased [8]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. There were also changes in various price spreads and regional price differences [10]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 34.1083%, up 2.31%; port inventory was 142.8 million tons, up 9.88% [11]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.19% on Thursday, down 1.12% from the previous value; downstream MTO device开工率 was 78.56%, up 2.13% [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at 67.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.31% from the previous day; WTI was at 63.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.34% [19]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB was at 200.90 cents/gallon on September 4, down 0.15% from the previous day. Refined oil cracking spreads had different changes [19]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. There were also changes in price spreads and basis [23]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory on Wednesday was 45.1 million tons, up 5.57%; PP装置开工率 on Thursday was 80.2%, up 2.6% [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. PVC prices and price spreads also had changes [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.4% on August 29, down 0.8% from August 22; PVC total开工率 was 73.3%, down 2.3% [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at 734 dollars/ton, up 0.8% from the previous day. Styrene - related prices and spreads also changed [53]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 1.10 million tons on September 1, up 8.0% from August 25; domestic pure benzene开工率 was 79.2% on August 29, up 0.2% from August 22 [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The fundamentals are generally bullish, with limited inventory growth at the end of August and potential export growth in September. Malaysian crude palm oil futures may rise, and domestic palm oil futures may also strengthen, potentially breaking new highs if they effectively break through and hold above 9,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: In the US, reduced industrial usage has less of a drag on the market, but weak demand prevents price increases. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, and with the postponement of Mid - Autumn Festival备货, soybean oil basis quotes will have limited fluctuations [1]. 2.2. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn is in the new - old crop transition period. The old - crop inventory is tight but trading is inactive. The market expects a new - crop increase and lower planting costs. As the new - crop harvest approaches, supply will increase, pressuring prices. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The short - term market will be volatile, and the medium - term trend is bearish [2]. 2.3. Pork - The supply of pigs for slaughter has recovered, causing the spot price to decline again. The supply - demand contradiction is not severe, and the price has limited room to fall further. Demand is slowly rising, but it's uncertain if it can absorb the supply. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. Short - term supply pressure is limited, and investors are advised to operate cautiously, paying attention to support levels at 13,500 for the November contract and 13,800 for the January contract [5]. 2.4. Meal - The US soybean market is bearish due to high yield expectations, high excellent - good rates, and falling crude oil prices. Brazil's soybean prices have support. In China, concerns about future supply have eased, and spot supply is loose. However, cost support is strong, and the decline in domestic meal prices is limited. In the fourth quarter, soybean supply will not be abundant, and cost support for meal is expected to remain strong. Investors can go long after the market stabilizes [8]. 2.5. Sugar - The expected increase in supply makes it difficult for raw sugar to rise, but there is a risk of a downward revision in Brazil's sugar production, which provides some support. Raw sugar is expected to trade in the 15 - 17 cents per pound range in the short term. The spot market's trading has slowed, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a narrow range between 5,500 - 5,700 yuan for the January contract [11]. 2.6. Cotton - The situation of new - cotton procurement is yet to be verified. Before the new - cotton harvest, inventory is relatively tight. Demand has improved marginally since August, but the downstream market has not improved significantly. The market is watching for seasonal orders in September, which will support cotton prices. Cotton prices are expected to remain in a high - level range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan per ton [12]. 2.7. Eggs - In September, the number of newly - laid hens may decrease slightly compared to August. Demand is supported by the Mid - Autumn Festival at the beginning of September but will weaken as the festival approaches and fall rapidly after the festival. Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the upside is limited, and a bearish outlook is maintained [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 3 was 8,640 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.82%) from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8,454 yuan, up 32 yuan (0.38%). The basis was 186 yuan, up 38 yuan (25.68%). The warehouse receipt decreased by 700 to 15,060 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong on September 3 was 9,400 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.75%). The futures price of P2601 was 9,346 yuan, down 34 yuan (- 0.36%). The basis was 54 yuan, up 104 yuan (208.00%). The import cost was 9,701.1 yuan, up 4.4 yuan (0.05%), and the import profit was - 355 yuan, down 38 yuan (- 12.13%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 3 was 9,870 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.41%). The futures price of OI601 was 9,900 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.50%). The basis was - 30 yuan, up 90 yuan (75.00%) [1]. 3.2. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On September 3, the price of the 2511 contract was 2,193 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 0.32%). The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2,290 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.44%). The basis was 97 yuan, up 17 yuan (21.25%). The 11 - 3 spread was - 2 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 200.00%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: The price of the 2511 contract was 2,487 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 0.72%). The Changchun spot price was 2,660 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 173 yuan, up 18 yuan (11.61%) [2]. 3.3. Pork - **Futures**: On September 3, the price of the 2511 contract was 13,550 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 0.33%); the 2601 contract was 13,915 yuan, up 55 yuan (0.40%). The 11 - 1 spread was - 365 yuan, down 100 yuan (- 37.74%) [5]. - **Spot**: The Henan price was 14,090 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Shandong price was 13,970 yuan, down 130 yuan; the Sichuan price was 13,800 yuan, unchanged; the Liaoning price was 13,590 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Guangdong price was 15,890 yuan, unchanged; the Hunan price was 13,790 yuan, down 70 yuan; the Hebei price was 13,830 yuan, down 170 yuan [5]. 3.4. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,050 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3,066 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.52%). The basis was - 16 yuan, down 16 yuan. The import profit for US Gulf shipments was 20 yuan, and for Brazilian October shipments, it was 52 yuan, up 14 yuan (36.8%) [8]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,521 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.84%). The basis was 79 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 21.00%). The import profit for Canadian November shipments was 733 yuan, down 46 yuan (- 5.91%) [8]. 3.5. Sugar - **Futures**: On September 3, the price of the 2601 contract was 5,562 yuan, down 37 yuan (- 0.66%); the 2605 contract was 5,532 yuan, down 28 yuan (- 0.50%). The ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.05 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents (- 0.56%) [11]. - **Spot**: The Guigang price was 5,900 yuan, unchanged; the Kunming price was 5,850 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 368 yuan, up 28 yuan (8.24%) [11]. 3.6. Cotton - **Futures**: On September 3, the price of the 2605 contract was 13,950 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 0.32%); the 2601 contract was 13,990 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.39%). The ICE US cotton主力 was 66.23 cents per pound, up 0.18 cents (0.27%) [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,373 yuan, up 49 yuan (0.32%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,465 yuan, up 53 yuan (0.34%) [12]. 3.7. Eggs - **Futures**: On September 3, the price of the 11 - contract was 3,090 yuan, up 55 yuan (1.81%); the 10 - contract was 3,011 yuan, up 52 yuan (1.76%) [14]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.22 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.28%) [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including the total position changes and the important changes of the top 20 seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM on September 3, 2025 [1][5][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - Total position of the IF variety decreased by 11,866 lots on September 3, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 9,043 lots [5]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IF variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 47,400 lots. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase (1,388 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease (3,950 lots) [6]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IF variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 49,527 lots. Guoxin Futures had the most short - position increase (832 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease (4,449 lots) [8]. IH (SSE 50) - Total position of the IH variety decreased by 7,211 lots on September 3, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 6,581 lots [11]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IH variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,882 lots. Bank of China Futures had the most long - position increase (694 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease (988 lots) [12]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IH variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 15,253 lots. Galaxy Futures had the most short - position increase (294 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease (1,047 lots) [13]. IC (CSI 500) - Total position of the IC variety decreased by 9,914 lots on September 3, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 8,216 lots [17]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,472 lots. China Merchants Futures had the most long - position increase (292 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease (2,425 lots) [18]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,164 lots. Everbright Futures had the most short - position increase (264 lots), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease (2,554 lots) [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - Total position of the IM variety decreased by 2,021 lots on September 3, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 2,519 lots [23]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the IM variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 54,196 lots. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase (2,565 lots), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease (895 lots) [24]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats of the IM variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 77,456 lots. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase (3,094 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease (3,176 lots) [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial derivatives market, A - shares are in a high - level shock pattern, and bonds are affected by multiple factors with limited adjustment expectations. Precious metals are driven by political instability in Europe and the United States and are expected to rise. The shipping market is expected to fluctuate, and the metal and agricultural product markets have different trends based on supply - demand and macro - factors [2][5][8][13][15][55] - In the commodity futures market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be affected by interest - rate cut expectations, while aluminum prices are affected by macro - expectations and fundamental improvements. Agricultural products such as soymeal and pork also have their own market characteristics [15][22][55] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45%. The four major stock index futures contracts mostly declined. Domestic and overseas news affected the market. A - share trading volume remained high, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, but the overall liquidity was stable. The bond market was weak due to multiple factors. It is recommended to observe the stock market trend and institutional behavior. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.8% [5][6][7] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high due to political instability in Europe and the United States, with a 1.65% increase. Silver prices also rose slightly. In the future, the price of gold is expected to rise above $3600, and silver may rise above $42, but there are risks [8][10][12] Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot prices are falling, and shipping indices show different trends. The global container capacity has increased, and the futures market rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [13][14] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price increased, and the macro - level interest - rate cut expectation improved. Supply was affected by various factors, and demand had certain resilience. The copper price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [15][17][19] - **Alumina**: The spot price decreased, supply increased, and inventory accumulated. The market is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [19][20][21] - **Aluminum**: The spot price increased, supply was at a high level, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a low level year - on - year. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price was stable, supply was affected by the off - season, demand was weak, and the price difference with aluminum was expected to narrow. It is expected to be in a shock - upward trend, with the main contract reference range of 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Zinc**: The spot price increased, supply was loose, demand was about to enter the peak season, and inventory showed different trends at home and abroad. It is expected to be in a shock, with the main contract reference range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [26][27][28] - **Tin**: The spot price increased, supply was tight, demand was weak, and inventory showed different trends. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30] - **Nickel**: The spot price was stable, supply was at a high level, demand was different in different fields, and inventory was at a high level overseas and decreased at home. It is expected to be in an interval adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price increased, raw material prices were firm, supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is expected to be in an interval shock, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton [34][35][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price decreased, supply was in a tight balance, demand was optimistic, and inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to be in a weak wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price showed signs of stabilizing. The cost support was expected to weaken, supply was at a high level, demand was in a seasonal decline and was expected to recover. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and do long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [40][41][44] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price increased, the futures price fluctuated, the supply increased, the demand was affected by steel production, and the inventory showed different trends. It is expected to be in a shock, with the reference range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to do long on iron ore and short on coking coal [47][48] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price was in a weak shock, supply was affected by mine accidents and production suspension, demand decreased due to production restrictions, and inventory was in a marginal decline. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and do long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49][50][51] - **Coke**: The seventh price increase was implemented, and the eighth one was blocked. Supply decreased due to production restrictions, demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and do long on iron ore and short on coke [52][53][54] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the market was affected by various news. In the long - term, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long at a low level when the price stabilizes in the range of 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton [55][56][57] - **Pig**: The spot price fluctuated, and the short - term supply contraction boosted the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm and be cautious in operation [58][59] - **Corn**: The spot price was stable in some areas and increased in ports. The inventory in Guangzhou Port showed different trends. The price rebounded and adjusted [60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macro方面,美联储表态偏鸽,市场预计9月降息概率提升,提振铜价,但后续降息幅度不确定,铜价上方空间仍面临压制 - 基本面呈现"弱现实+稳预期"状态,中长期供需矛盾提供底部支撑,铜价至少维持震荡,后续步入新的上行周期需等待铜的商品属性及金融属性共振,主力参考78500 - 81000 [1] Zinc - 上游海外矿企步入投产复产上行周期,矿端供应宽松逻辑逐步传导至冶炼端,7月国内精锌产量大增 - 需求端即将步入旺季,锌价重心下移后,现货成交好转,全球库存绝对值水平偏低给予价格支撑 - 供应端宽松预期仍存,对锌价持续上冲提供的弹性不足,短期锌价或仍以震荡运行为主,主力参考21500 - 23000 [4] Aluminum Alumina - 市场呈现"高供应、高库存、弱需求"格局,当前期价已逼近国内主流成本带,下方空间相对有限,上方驱动需等待几内亚供应扰动或情绪催化,主力合约参考区间2900 - 3200元/吨 [7] Aluminum - 宏观层面美联储降息预期升温对铝价形成外部支撑,基本面供应端产能高位但成本上升,需求端下游消费边际回暖,社会库存虽小幅累库但同比仍处低位 - 整体呈现宏观预期与基本面改善共振格局,但高价对下游采购有抑制,短期预计维持20400 - 21000元/吨区间震荡 [7] Aluminum Alloy - 供应端废铝市场供应趋紧,对成本形成支撑,近期多地税收政策调整使部分再生铝厂减产或停产 - 需求端终端消费仍偏弱,累库趋势延续,9月起市场将迎来淡旺季转换,部分压铸企业订单已出现边际回暖迹象 - 若进口比价维持,进口铝合金锭及废铝补充有限,预计现货价格保持坚挺,铝合金与铝价差有望进一步收敛,主力合约参考运行区间20000 - 20600元/吨 [8] Tin - 供应方面,现实锡矿供应维持紧张,7月国内锡矿进口环比下降,实际出矿预计延至四季度,关注缅甸锡矿恢复情况 - 需求方面,光伏抢装机结束后,部分地区订单和开工率下滑 - 受国家政策指引,市场对于国内Al需求预期向好,同时基本面延续强势,锡价偏强震荡,运行区间参考285000 - 265000 [10] Nickel - 宏观方面,美国宽松预期提振,国内反内卷背景下政策预期偏积极 - 产业层面,精炼镍现货成交尚可,矿价坚挺,镍铁价格偏强,不锈钢需求仍偏弱 - 情绪影响弱化,近期成本有一定支撑,基本面供需变动不大,价格下跌空间有限,中期供给宽松不改制约价格上方空间,短期预计盘面以区间调整为主,主力参考118000 - 126000 [11] Stainless Steel - 宏观方面,美联储降息预期升温,中美关税谈判结果落地出口压力阶段性缓和,国内政策态度偏积极 - 矿价坚挺,镍铁市场议价区间上移,钢厂生产利润修复,对于镍铁压价心态有所缓解 - 季节性和政策窗口之下需求预期改善,但目前终端需求疲软现实未改,不锈钢社会库存去化仍较慢 - 原料价格坚挺成本支撑强化,伴随旺季来临市场持谨慎乐观态度,库存压力放缓,但基本面仍受制于现货需求偏弱,短期盘面区间震荡为主,主力运行区间参考12600 - 13400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - 消息面上,关于大厂复产信息多有发酵,目前官方尚无公告 - 近期碳酸锂基本面维持紧平衡,供应收缩预期逐步兑现,需求表现稳健偏乐观,但材料产业链库存压力之下实际需求尚大幅提振仍需跟踪 - 近期利多出尽演化为情绪利空,期现共振整体交易氛围转弱,但9月底之前供应端消息尚未完全落地,基本面改善仍然为价格提供下方支撑,预计盘面价格中枢下移后宽幅震荡为主,主力区间参考7 - 7.5万 [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1电解铜现值80160元/吨,日涨260元,涨幅0.33% - 精废价差现值1852元/吨,日涨215元,涨幅13.13%等 [1] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值20元/吨,日涨30元 [1] Fundamental Data - 8月电解铜产量117.15万吨,月环比下降0.24% - 境内社会库存现值13.21万吨,周环比增长7.40%等 [1] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0锌锭现值22150元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.23% - 进口盈亏现值 - 2267元/吨,日跌64.32元 [4] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 45元/吨,日跌20元 [4] Fundamental Data - 8月精炼锌产量62.62万吨,月环比增长3.88% - 中国锌锭七地社会库存现值14.63万吨,周环比增长5.63%等 [4] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00铝现值20710元/吨,日涨90元,涨幅0.44% - 进口盈亏现值 - 1359元/吨,日跌35.7元 [7] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值15元/吨,日跌5元 [7] Fundamental Data - 8月氧化铝产量773.82万吨,月环比增长1.15% - 中国电解铝社会库存现值62.30万吨,周环比增长1.14%等 [7] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM铝合金ADC12现值20750元/吨,日涨幅0.00% - 佛山破碎生铝精废价差现值1608元/吨,日涨幅0.00% [8] Monthly Spread - 2511 - 2512现值 - 10元/吨,日涨5元 [8] Fundamental Data - 7月再生铝合金锭产量62.50万吨,月环比增长1.63% - 再生铝合金锭周度社会库存现值3.75万吨,周环比增长6.84%等 [8] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1锡现值273500元/吨,日涨1000元,涨幅0.37% - LME 0 - 3升贴水现值148美元/吨,日跌27美元,跌幅15.43% [10] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - 进口盈亏现值 - 20382.26元/吨,日跌5.53元,跌幅0.03% [10] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2510现值 - 320元/吨,日涨20元,涨幅5.88% [10] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - 7月锡矿进口10278吨,月环比下降13.71% - SMM精锡7月平均开工率66.19%,月涨幅0.00%等 [10] Inventory Changes - SHEF库存周报现值7566吨,周涨75吨,涨幅1.00% [10] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1电解镍现值124050元/吨,日跌250元,跌幅0.20% - 期货进口盈亏现值 - 1504元/吨,日跌1055元,涨幅234.97% [11] Electrolytic Nickel Cost - 一体化MHP生产电积镍成本现值118531元/吨,月跌3422元,跌幅2.81% [11] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 200元/吨,日跌70元 [11] Supply and Demand and Inventory - 中国精炼镍产量现值37800吨,月涨400吨,涨幅1.26% - SHFE库存现值26943吨,周跌19吨,跌幅0.07%等 [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (无锡宏旺2.0卷)现值13200元/吨,日涨50元,涨幅0.38% - 期现价差现值410元/吨,日涨40元,涨幅10.81% [13] Raw Material Price - 菲律宾红土镍矿1.5%(CIF)均价现值57美元/湿吨,日涨幅0.00% - 内蒙古高碳铬铁FeCrC1000均价现值8400元/50基吨,日涨100元,涨幅1.20% [13] Monthly Spread - 2510 - 2511现值 - 70元/吨,日跌10元 [13] Fundamental Data - 中国300系不锈钢粗钢产量(43家)现值171.33万吨,月环比下降3.83% - 300系社库(锡 + 佛)现值49.90万吨,周环比下降1.09%等 [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM电池级碳酸锂均价现值77500元/吨,日跌850元,跌幅1.08% - 锂辉石精矿CIF平均价现值887美元/吨,日跌11美元,跌幅1.22% [14] Monthly Spread - 2509 - 2511现值 - 20元/吨,日涨160元 [14] Fundamental Data - 8月碳酸锂产量85240吨,月环比增长4.55% - 碳酸锂总库存(8月)现值94177吨,月环比下降3.75%等 [14]

Report Summary of Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The glass and soda ash markets continue to weaken, following the logic of fundamental oversupply. For soda ash, the overall demand has no growth expectation, and the market pattern remains bearish. For glass, the market negative feedback persists, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma. Short positions can be held for both [1]. Detailed Summary Glass - **Prices and Spreads**:华北报价1140元/吨、华东报价1200元/吨、华中报价1090元/吨、华南报价1240元/吨均无变化；玻璃2505合约1238元/吨，较前值跌36元/吨，跌幅2.83%；玻璃2509合约943元/吨，较前值跌53元/吨，跌幅5.32%；05基差较前值涨36，涨幅26.87% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**:浮法日熔量15.96万吨无变化，光伏日熔量89290吨无变化；深加工订单偏弱，lowe开工率持续偏低，玻璃刚需端有一定压力 [1]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**:华北报价1300元/吨、华东报价1250元/吨、华中报价1250元/吨、西北报价1000元/吨均无变化；纯碱2505合约1349元/吨，较前值跌23元/吨，跌幅1.68%；纯碱2509合约1154元/吨，较前值跌26元/吨，跌幅1.90%；05基差较前值涨23，涨幅31.94% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**:纯碱开工率82.47%，较8月22日降6.79%；纯碱周产量71.90万吨，较8月22日降5.2万吨，跌幅6.79%；二季度光伏抢装过后光伏玻璃产能增长趋于滞缓，浮法产能走平，后市供需仍有压力 [1]. Report Summary of Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The log futures market is in a weak - balanced oscillation stage. With the expectation of marginal improvement in the fundamentals, lower - cost support, and low inventory, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 2601 contract at low prices [2]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - **Futures Prices**: The 2511 contract closed at 810.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 8 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous day. The 2509 contract rose 21 yuan/cubic meter to 797.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 2.70% increase; the 2601 contract fell 5 yuan/cubic meter to 825.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.60% decrease [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price was 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged [2]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The port shipment volume in July was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from June. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 297 million cubic meters as of August 29, showing a continuous de - stocking trend [2]. - **Demand**: As of August 29, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.20 million cubic meters, remaining above 6 million cubic meters last week [2]. Report Summary of Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The natural rubber market continues to de - stock, with strong fundamental positive drivers. It is expected to have upward space. The price range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and short at high prices if the raw material supply increases smoothly [3]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 50 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton, with a 0.33% increase; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber rose 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.34% increase [3]. - **Futures Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 940 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 2.59% increase; the 1 - 5 spread was - 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 17.65% decrease [3]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Seasonal climate disturbances affected the tapping in the main producing areas, overseas raw material prices continued to rise, and the arrival of overseas ships was low. The inventory continued to de - stock this week [3]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, market agents received orders, and most other channel merchants had regular sales. The demand for semi - steel tire replacement was negatively affected by the approaching school - opening, and the full - steel tire market in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region was affected by vehicle restrictions [3]. Report Summary of Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The polysilicon market will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The lower limit of the price fluctuation range will rise to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit will be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider shorting with put options at high prices when the volatility is low. Attention should be paid to the constraints on energy consumption and green - electricity ratio to promote the exit of backward production capacity [4]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - **Spot Prices**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material rose 2500 yuan/ton to 51,500 yuan/ton, with a 5.10% increase; the average price of N - type granular silicon rose 2500 yuan/ton to 48,500 yuan/ton, with a 5.43% increase [4]. - **Futures Spreads**: The main contract price was 51,875 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.78% decrease; the current - to - first - continuous spread increased by 100.81% [4]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly polysilicon production was 3.10 million tons, up 6.53% from the previous week; the monthly production was 13.17 million tons, up 23.31% from the previous month [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly silicon wafer production was 13.31 GW, up 8.30% from the previous week; the monthly production was 56.04 GW, up 6.24% from the previous month [4]. Report Summary of Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The industrial silicon price fluctuates weakly. The cost will rise in the future, and there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship in August was in a tight balance. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - **Spot Prices**: The price of East China oxygen - fed S15530 industrial silicon rose 20 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, with a 0.55% increase; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Futures Spreads**: The 2509 - 2510 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 50.00% decrease; the 2510 - 2511 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 33.33% decrease [5]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The national industrial silicon production in August was 38.57 million tons, up 14.01% from the previous month. There were news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down [5]. - **Demand**: The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy all increased in August, maintaining a tight - balance supply - demand relationship [5].

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月3日 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 设新值 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -9.25 | 3.86 | 40.10% | 37.80% | H期规价差 | -0.08 | 1.52 | 52.00% | 56.5096 | 期到价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -65,49 | 30.00 | 20.90% | 10.8096 | IM期现价差 | -65 48 | 58.07 | 50.00% | 24.80% | 次月-当月 | -5.60 | 2.00 | 45.40% | 45,90% | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macro aspect: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper price, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamental aspect: It shows "weak reality + stable expectation". Demand may weaken marginally, but supply elasticity is low. With improved rate - cut expectation and domestic stimulus, copper price may at least maintain a range - bound movement and enter an upward cycle when commodity and financial attributes resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 78,500 - 81,000 [1]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption. High TC encourages smelters, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the operating rates of primary processing industries is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, and the price may range - bound. Upward rebound needs better demand or non - recession rate - cut expectation, while downward breakthrough requires stronger TC or continuous inventory build - up. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum Alumina - Market situation: It presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply is under pressure from new capacity, while demand growth from electrolytic aluminum is limited. - Outlook: The price is approaching the cost range, with limited downside. Upside needs supply disruptions from Guinea or sentiment catalysts. The reference range for the main contract is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum - Macro and fundamental: Fed's rate - cut expectation and improved fundamentals support the price, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to range - bound between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve, the price may fall. Tracking inventory and policy implementation is necessary [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply: Seasonal demand weakness and import restrictions tighten the supply of scrap aluminum, supporting costs. Tax policy adjustments lead to production cuts in some regions. - Demand: Terminal consumption is weak, but there are signs of improvement in some die - casting orders. - Outlook: If imports are limited, the spot price may remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. Domestic tin ore imports are at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be delayed to the fourth quarter. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors has declined. - Outlook: With positive policy expectations, the price is in a strong - side range - bound movement. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it may remain high - side range - bound. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 [10]. Nickel - Macro: US easing expectation and positive domestic policy expectation. - Industry: Nickel price is stable, nickel ore price is firm, and nickel - iron price is strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. - Outlook: The price decline is limited by cost, and the price may range - bound. The reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectation and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and improve demand expectation. - Industry: Raw material prices are firm, nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, and there are supply - side disturbances in ferrochrome. Production may increase, but demand is still weak. - Outlook: Cost support is strong, but demand restricts the price. The price may range - bound, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market continued to fall. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state, with supply contraction and stable demand. - Outlook: After the price center moves down, it may range - bound widely. The reference range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,160 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 220 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,150 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [4]. - The premium in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [7]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium rose to - 20 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM Southwest ADC12 price rose to 20,800 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price rose to 273,500 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium rose to 650 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 124,050 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [11]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium dropped to 2,100 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price rose to 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 77,500 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 75,200 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [14]. Month - to - Month Spreads Copper - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to 20 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to 15 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - 2511 - 2512 spread rose to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to - 320 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 200 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 70 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - 2509 - 2511 spread rose to - 20 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% [1]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% [4]. - July refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% [4]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% [7]. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [7]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% [8]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% [8]. Tin - July tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% [10]. - SMM refined tin production in July was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% [10]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production was 37,800 tons, up 1.26% [11]. - Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, down 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% [13]. - Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 36.00 million tons, unchanged [13]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% [14]. - August lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% [14].