1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Report's Core View Polyolefin - In September, the polyolefin market shows a phased characteristic of "decreased supply and increased demand", with inventory being reduced and overall market pressure under control. It is recommended to continue holding the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is strong in the short - term. After the parade, there may be an increase in orders from other provinces, and some caustic soda plants may raise prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [4]. PVC - The PVC market continues to be in a situation of oversupply. Although it is the traditional demand peak season in September, demand remains sluggish. It is expected to continue weak and volatile [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The supply side supports buying, while the demand side is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent OPEC+ meetings. In the short - term, wait and see, use a positive arbitrage strategy, and look for opportunities to expand options after the volatility increases [7]. Methanol - The methanol supply is expected to increase, while the traditional downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the restart of MTO devices at ports and the inventory digestion rhythm. The 01 contract can consider the possibility of a decline in imports due to gas restrictions in Iran [17]. Urea - The urea futures price rebounded slightly, driven by supply - side maintenance and Indian tender news. However, weak demand limits the upside space [21]. PX - PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance in September. PX11 can focus on the area around 6800 [25]. PTA - PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the absolute price is supported in the short - term. [26] Ethylene Glycol - In September, domestic ethylene glycol supply is high, imports are revised down, and port inventories are low. Consider going long EG2601 or selling put options EG2601 - P - 4300 [26]. Short - fiber - In September, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction is limited. The price fluctuates mainly with raw materials [26]. Bottle Chip - In September, bottle chip manufacturers maintain a 20% production cut. Demand declines slightly, and the upside space is limited [26]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, demand support is weak, and the absolute price is under short - term pressure. However, the strong oil price restricts the downward space. For BZ2603, focus on the area around 5800 - 6000 [34]. Styrene - Short - term styrene supply is high, and the driver is weak. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the future, and the downward space is limited. Consider going long lightly below 7000 and focus on the support around 6900, and then mainly short on rebounds [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 closing prices all decreased slightly. The basis of North China LL and the spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 14.92%, and social inventory increased by 0.99%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.91%, and trader inventory decreased by 1.81% [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.72%. PP device operating rate increased by 2.6%, and powder operating rate increased by 4.1% [2]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Export Profit**: FOB price of caustic soda in East China remained unchanged, and export profit decreased. PVC's CFR Southeast Asia price decreased, and export profit increased [4]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate and PVC total operating rate decreased. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC and Northwest integrated PVC decreased [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC's pre - sales volume decreased [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China decreased, while that in Shandong increased. PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased [4]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all rose. The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, etc. changed significantly [7]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of some refined oil products and their spreads changed, and the cracking spreads of some refined oil products also changed [7]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased. The basis of Taicang and regional spreads changed [17]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased, while that of overseas enterprises increased. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices increased [17]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some urea products and their spreads changed [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased, and factory and port inventories increased [21]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX**: PX futures prices decreased, and spreads such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha decreased [24][25]. - **PTA**: PTA spot and futures prices changed slightly, and the processing fee increased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol decreased, and the basis increased [25]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, etc. changed, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [32]. - **Benzene and Styrene Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis and import profit changed [32]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [33]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. The operating rates of some industries in the industrial chain changed [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, prices have fallen from their highs, with significant declines in steel profits. There are expectations of seasonal demand improvement from September to October, but high production levels still pose a challenge to the demand - absorbing capacity during the peak season. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 after the September 3rd parade and steel demand during the peak season. Investment strategies include selling out - of - the - money put options and considering long positions in the steel - iron ore ratio [1]. - Regarding the iron ore industry, the current fundamentals lack a strong upward driver. Although the iron water output may decline slightly around the parade, it will remain at a relatively high level in September. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain. The strategy is to view it as a range - bound market, with the range reference of 750 - 810, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [3][4]. - In the coke industry, the futures market has shown volatile and downward trends. The supply will gradually become looser after the end of short - term production restrictions, and there is a possibility of price decline in the future. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [5]. - For the coking coal industry, the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand situation has eased, and prices may continue to fall in September. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Most steel prices have declined, with the exception of some contracts and regions where prices remained unchanged. For example, the spot price of rebar in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of the rebar 10 - contract increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production has generally decreased, while profits have declined significantly. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron water output decreased by 0.7 tons (- 0.3%), while the output of five major steel products increased by 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.9%, with the rebar inventory rising by 2.7% [1]. Market Analysis - In August, the supply - demand gap widened, and inventory accumulation was obvious. Entering September - October, there are expectations of seasonal demand improvement. However, high production levels still test the demand - absorbing capacity during the peak season [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of most iron ore varieties has increased significantly, and the 5 - 9 spread has widened. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 32.2 yuan/ton (351.5%) [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 7.3% week - on - week, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 5.5%. The demand side saw a decline in iron water output and a decrease in the average daily port clearance volume [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 0.1%, while the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% [3]. Market Analysis - The fundamentals currently lack a strong upward driver. Although the iron water output may decline slightly around the parade, it will remain at a relatively high level in September. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal prices have shown different trends. Coke futures prices have fluctuated and declined, while coking coal futures prices have oscillated weakly. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [5]. Profit - Coking profits and sample coal mine profits have both decreased. The weekly coking profit decreased by 11, and the weekly sample coal mine profit decreased by 4 [5]. Supply and Demand - Coke supply has decreased due to production restrictions, and demand has also declined with the decrease in iron water output. Coking coal supply has been affected by mine accidents and production suspension, and demand has decreased due to steel and coking production restrictions [5]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories have shown different trends. Coke inventories have increased slightly overall, while coking coal inventories have decreased slightly in some sectors and increased in others [5]. Market Analysis - Coke supply will gradually become looser after the end of short - term production restrictions, and there is a possibility of price decline. Coking coal supply - demand has eased, and prices may continue to fall in September [5].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月3日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月2日 | 9月1日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8570 | 8570 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8390 | 32 | 0.38% | | 墓差 | | Y2601 | 148 | 180 | -32 | -17.78% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏9月 | 01+220 | 01+220 | 0 | 1 | | 仓单 | | | 15760 | 15760 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月2日 | 9月1日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 9330 | 9280 | 50 | 0.54% | | 期价 | | P260 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月3日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1090 | 1090 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1240 | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1238 | 1274 | -36 | -2.83% | | | 玻璃2509 | 943 | વેવે | -53 | -5.32% | | | 05基差 | -d8 | -134 | 36 | 26.87% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily basis difference report for all varieties dated September 3, 2025, covering black, non - ferrous, precious metal, agricultural, energy - chemical, and financial sectors [1][3] Black Series - **Iron Alloys**: For silicon iron (SF511), the spot price is 5628, the futures price is 5628, the basis rate is 69.40%, and the historical quantile is 69.40%. For silicon manganese (SM601), the spot price is 5950, the futures price is 5744, the basis rate is 3.5998%, and the historical quantile is 60.40% [1] - **Steel and Raw Materials**: The spot price of rebar (RB2601) is 3240, the futures price is 3117, the basis rate is 3.95%, and the historical quantile is 56.30%. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (HC2601) is 3350, the futures price is 3298, the basis rate is 1.58%, and the historical quantile is 40.20%. The spot price of iron ore (I2601) is 826, the futures price is 772, the basis rate is 7.00%, and the historical quantile is 45.30% [1] - **Coking Products**: The spot price of coke (J2601) is 1603, the futures price is 1597, the basis rate is 0.38%, and the historical quantile is 59.46%. The spot price of coking coal (JM2601) is 1114, the futures price is 1113, the basis rate is 0.13%, and the historical quantile is 24.50% [1] Non - Ferrous Series - **Copper**: The spot price of copper (CU2510) is 80160, the futures price is 79660, the basis rate is 0.63%, and the historical quantile is 88.12% [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The spot price of aluminum (AL2510) is 20710, the futures price is 20720, the basis rate is - 0.05%, and the historical quantile is 52.08%. The spot price of alumina (AQ2601) is 3196, the futures price is 3022, the basis rate is 5.74%, and the historical quantile is 73.56% [1] - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, and TVG+ also have their respective spot and futures prices, basis rates, and historical quantiles provided [1] Precious Metal Series - **Gold and Silver**: The spot price of gold (AU2510) is 799.8, the futures price is 804.3, the basis rate is - 0.5696%, and the historical quantile is 7.30%. The spot price of silver (AG2510) is 9800.0, the futures price is 9824.0, the basis rate is - 0.24%, and the historical quantile is 35.70% [1] Agricultural Series - **Oilseeds and Oils**: For soybean meal (M2601), the spot price is 3000, the futures price is 3050.0, the basis rate is - 1.64%, and the historical quantile is 26.70%. For soybean oil (Y2601), the spot price is 8500, the futures price is 0.9568, the basis rate is 1.72%, and the historical quantile is 26.70%. Other agricultural products such as palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, etc. also have relevant data presented [1] Energy - Chemical Series - **Petrochemicals**: For paraxylene (PX511), the spot price is 6931.9, the futures price is 6834.0, the basis rate is 1.43%, and the historical quantile is 17.30%. For PTA (TA601), the spot price is 4720.0, the futures price is 4756.0, the basis rate is - 0.76%, and the historical quantile is 39.40%. Other energy - chemical products' spot and futures data are also provided [1] Financial Series - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2509 CEE, the spot price is 4490.5, the futures price is 4481.2, the basis rate is - 0.21%, and the historical quantile is 37.80%. For IH2509 CFE, IC2509 CFE, and IM2509 CFE, relevant basis and historical quantile data are given [1] - **Bond Futures**: For 2 - year bond (TS2512), 5 - year bond (TF2512), 10 - year bond (T2512), and 30 - year bond (TL2512), their spot and futures prices, basis, and historical quantiles are presented, with conversion factors provided for calculation [1][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may continue to rise due to potential limited inventory growth at the end of August and export data increases. In China, the long - term view on palm oil futures is bullish, but it needs to break through and hold above 9,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil futures are under pressure in the short - term due to the expected soybean harvest in the US. In China, soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the spot basis may rise after fluctuations [1]. Sugar - The upward movement of raw sugar is difficult due to increased supply expectations, but the potential downward revision of Brazil's sugar production provides some support. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with the 01 contract expected to fluctuate around 5,500 - 5,700 yuan/ton [3]. Cotton - The supply of new cotton is yet to be verified. Before the new cotton is on the market, the inventory is relatively tight. The demand has marginally improved since August, but the downstream improvement is not obvious. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Eggs - In September, the number of newly - laid hens may decrease slightly. Egg demand may be lower than in previous years. Egg prices may rebound in the first half of September, but the upward space is limited, and a bearish view is maintained [7]. Corn - The short - term corn futures are in a rebound and consolidation phase due to the tight supply of old - crop corn, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. Consider shorting on rallies [10]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has strengthened slightly. Short - term supply has tightened, which boosts the spot price, but the sustainable space is limited. It is recommended to operate with caution, with support levels at 13,500 for the 11 - contract and 13,800 for the 01 - contract [15]. Meal - The high expected yield and good condition of US soybeans suppress the market. The supply of domestic meal is currently loose, but the cost provides support. The domestic meal is expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to go long at the 3,000 - 3,050 range after stabilization [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 2, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,570 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,422 yuan, up 0.38%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,330 yuan, up 0.54%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,380 yuan, up 0.54%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,830 yuan, down 0.51%; the futures price of OI601 was 9,950 yuan, up 0.20% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 66, up 57.14%; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was - 42, up 22.22%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 184, up 42.64%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760, down 7.04% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 2, the futures price of sugar 2601 was down 0.18%, and the futures price of sugar 2605 was down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was down 1.22%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 0.70%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.73% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,900 yuan, down 0.17%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,850 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was unchanged, and the Kunming basis increased by 3.57% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 15.76% year - on - year. The national industrial inventory decreased by 10.44% year - on - year [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 2, the futures price of cotton 2605 was up 0.21%, and the futures price of cotton 2601 was up 0.14%. The ICE US cotton main contract was down 0.72%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 1.35%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.99% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,324 yuan, down 0.44%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15,412 yuan, down 0.43% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 16.9% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory increased by 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 66.7% month - on - month [4]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot**: On September 2, the futures price of the egg 11 - contract was up 1.68%, and the futures price of the egg 10 - contract was up 1.30%. The egg - producing area price was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.18% [6]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.00 yuan/feather, down 6.25%; the price of culled hens was 4.83 yuan/jin, down 4.36%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.50, up 2.88%; the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 20.84% [6]. Corn - **Corn**: On September 2, the futures price of corn 2511 was 2,200 yuan, up 0.32%. The Jinzhou Port FAS price was 2,280 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 80, down 8.05% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2511 was up 0.20%. The Changchun spot price was 2,660 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price was 2,900 yuan, unchanged [10]. Pigs - **Futures**: On September 2, the futures price of the pig 2511 - contract was 13,595 yuan, down 0.22%; the futures price of the pig 2601 - contract was 13,860 yuan, up 0.14%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2.75% [15]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 14,150 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,100 yuan, down 100 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 13,800 yuan, up 200 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 0.12%. The weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 5.04%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 2.23% [15]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: On September 2, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,050 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3,050 yuan, down 0.13%. The basis was 0, up 100.00%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 38, up 100.0% [17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,500 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis was 100, up 14.94% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the soybean No.1 main contract was 3,970 yuan, up 0.13%. The basis was 10, down 33.33% [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 2, 2025, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased significantly, with notable changes in the positions of the top 20 seats [1][4][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 2, the total position of the IF variety increased by 21,717 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 8,725 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 49,293 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 6,344 lots, while Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 658 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 53,976 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 6,179 lots, while Zhongtai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 386 lots [7]. IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 2, the total position of the IH variety increased by 12,783 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 9,442 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,734 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,480 lots, while Baocheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 100 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 16,300 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,807 lots, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 66 lots [11]. IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 2, the total position of the IC variety increased by 18,794 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 11,825 lots [15]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,897 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 6,153 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 95 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,595 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 4,975 lots, while UBS Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 254 lots [17]. IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On September 2, the total position of the IM variety increased by 26,043 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 12,533 lots [21]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 55,091 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 6,799 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 964 lots [21]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 80,632 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 6,468 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,402 lots [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, prices have fallen from their highs, and profit margins have declined significantly. In the future, attention should be paid to coal mine复产 after the September 3rd parade and the demand for steel during the peak season. There are expectations of seasonal strengthening in demand from September to October, but high production levels will still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. Unilateral short - selling space is limited, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money put options and going long on the ratio of steel to ore can be considered [1]. - For the iron ore industry, the global shipment volume has increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. The demand side is affected by production restrictions during the parade, and iron water production has declined from its high. The fundamentals lack a strong upward driving force, but steel mills' profitability remains high, so iron water production in September will still be at a relatively high level. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain. A neutral view is taken on unilateral trading, with an expected trading range of 750 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [3]. - For the coke industry, futures prices have fluctuated sharply, with spot prices rising and then stabilizing. Supply has been affected by production restrictions, and demand has declined due to steel production restrictions. Inventory is at a medium level, and there is a possibility of price decline in the future. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. - For the coking coal industry, futures prices have trended weakly, and spot prices have been generally weak and stable. Supply has been affected by mine accidents and production suspension for rectification, and demand has declined due to production restrictions in the steel and coking industries. Inventory has decreased slightly, and coal prices may continue to fall in September. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production has generally decreased, such as the cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreasing by 36 yuan/ton. However, the profit margins of steel products have declined significantly, with the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreasing by 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production decreased by 0.7 to 240.1, a decline of 0.3%. The production of five major steel products increased by 6.5 to 884.6, an increase of 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 26.8 to 1467.9, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot and futures have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 32.2 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 351.5% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume of iron ore increased by 241.0 to 3556.8 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 7.3%. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 132.7 to 2526.0 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 5.5%. The demand side was affected by production restrictions, with the daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills decreasing by 0.6 to 240.1, a decline of 0.2% [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13776.51 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 0.1%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.3 to 9007.2 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures have fluctuated. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The profit margins of the coking and coal - mining industries have declined [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of coke and coking coal has been affected by production restrictions. The daily average production of coke in all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 to 64.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 1.4%. The demand for coke and coking coal has also decreased due to steel production restrictions [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke and coking coal has shown different trends. The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.1 to 887.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.1%. The coking coal inventory in some areas has decreased, while in others, it has increased slightly [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily data of various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, without explicitly stating a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differences**: The latest values and changes of F, IH, IC, and IM futures price differences are provided, along with their historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, such as the spreads between the next month and the current month, the far month and the current month, etc., are presented, including their changes and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios of various futures varieties, such as the ratio of IC to IF, IC to IH, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: The implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures are provided, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, such as the spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter, are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads between different bond futures, such as the spread between TS and TF, are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, as well as spot prices, are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of precious metals, such as the difference between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, is presented, along with its changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios of gold to silver, interest rates of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories and positions of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes, Shanghai export container freight rates, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping futures and their basis are given, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone's CPI, US manufacturing PMI, etc., are presented, along with their release times and data sources [7]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Economic indicators and financial events in China, such as manganese ore inventory, port inventory, etc., are provided, along with their release times and data sources [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].