| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3120 | -30 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 245 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3230 | -30 | 295 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2910 | 2973 | -63 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2928 | 2961 | -33 | 162 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2905 | 2967 | -62 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 125 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3140 | -40 | ਵੇਂ | | | 热卷现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity futures, including indices, bonds, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, price movements, and potential trading opportunities for each category [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Indices**: The indices have stable support below but face significant upward pressure. Affected by ongoing tariff negotiations, they are volatile in the short - term and are expected to remain neutrally oscillating after the volatility subsides. It is recommended to wait and see, with a suggested long - position attempt on the CSI 1000 index in the 5800 - 5900 range [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year rate between 1.8% - 1.95%. Short - term treasury bond futures may show a range - bound oscillation. A range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: After the "black swan" event overseas during the Dragon Boat Festival, the market has returned to rationality, and precious metals have declined. Gold is expected to oscillate, and a double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is advised to sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: With a high opening in July's quotes and the market bottoming out and rebounding, it is advisable to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Industrial steel demand and inventory are deteriorating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider a long - steel and short - raw - material arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is falling from a high level. It is expected to oscillate in the 700 - 745 range [3]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may be further reduced, and coking coal prices are weak. It is recommended to stop the loss on short positions for J2509 and JM2509 [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: With the resumption of production in large factories in Ningxia and the recovery of shipments from Groote Eylandt, it is advisable to short at high prices, with resistance levels at around 5500 for silicon iron and 5900 for manganese silicon [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, and Tin**: Copper has weak driving forces; zinc prices are supported by lower - than - expected supply; nickel is in narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel is weakly operating; and tin prices are continuing to decline. Specific price ranges and trading suggestions are provided for each [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Short - term upward support is provided by North American supply disruptions, but the long - term depends on OPEC production policies. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider an options straddle strategy [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Ethanol, Styrene, Caustic Soda, PVC, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, and Methanol**: Different products have different market conditions, such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and price trends. Specific trading strategies are recommended for each [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Meal, Live Hogs, Corn, Oils, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Apples, Jujubes, Peanuts, and Soda Ash**: Market conditions vary among different agricultural products. For example, live hog prices are under pressure after the festival, and sugar supply is expected to be loose overseas. Appropriate trading strategies are provided for each [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass, Rubber, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, and Lithium Carbonate**: Glass market sentiment is weakening; rubber prices are declining; industrial silicon is weakly oscillating; polysilicon futures have fallen significantly; and lithium carbonate is weakly stable. Specific trading suggestions are given for each [3].

本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可缔的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的 品种买卖的出价或询价 投资者据此投资 区 街所有,未经广发胡倍书面 给自相,本报告旨在发送给广发明创特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 授权 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发 | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 250400 | 251500 | -1100 | -0.44% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 1250 | 1250 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 250900 | 252000 | -1100 | -0.44% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -107.00 | -78.00 | -2 ...

Z00J9556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月3日 | 5月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 765.0 | 765.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2509 | 786.0 | 788.0 | -2.0 | -0.25% | | | 原木2511 | 791.0 | 793.0 | -2.0 | -0.25% | | | 7-9价差 | -21.0 | -23.0 | 2.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -26.0 | -28.0 | 2.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -15.0 | -15.0 | 0.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -36.0 | -38.0 | 2.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -41.0 | -43.0 | 2.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 720.0 | 720.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3120 | -30 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 245 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3230 | -30 | 295 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2910 | 2973 | -63 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2928 | 2961 | -33 | 162 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2905 | 2967 | -62 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 125 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3140 | -40 | ਵੇਂ | | | 热卷现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - International oil prices rose, mainly driven by macro and supply - side factors boosting market risk appetite. In the short - term, the upward trend of the market is due to supply expectation adjustments and macro - geopolitical impacts on market sentiment. In the long - term, the balance sheet may continue to loosen. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The expected price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Options can consider buying straddle structures [2]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant inventory accumulation pressure. The 09 contract is mainly priced based on the oversupply situation in the inland area. The market will continue to force production cuts. The price will continue to decline in an oscillatory manner, with short - term resistance around 2270 and a medium - term target of 2050 - 2100 [5]. Styrene - Although OPEC+ has a strong production increase expectation, geopolitical risks and seasonal factors support oil prices in the short - term. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and the cost support for styrene is weak. With the improvement of styrene industry profits, supply is expected to increase while demand is weak, so styrene prices are under pressure. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [9]. Polyolefins - In the plastics market, the supply of PE may see inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports, while the supply pressure of PP will increase as maintenance ends. The demand lacks sustainability. It is recommended to short - sell PP on rallies and consider expanding the LP spread [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, the supply - side contradiction is limited in June, and some enterprises want to support prices. The demand from the alumina industry provides strong support for the spot price. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between the near - month and 09 contracts. For PVC, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term supply pressure will increase. It is recommended to short - sell PVC on rallies, with an expected price range of 4500 - 5000 [38]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in the continuous impact of high supply and weak demand. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. After the Dragon Boat Festival, if agricultural fertilizer procurement fails to start effectively and the export volume is low, the price may decline [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing, and demand may weaken. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6500 - 6900, and consider reverse spreads for PX9 - 1 and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, but short - term support is strong. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900, and consider reverse spreads for TA9 - 1. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 around 4200 and positive spreads for EG9 - 1. - Short - fiber: The driving force is weaker than the raw material end. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trading, and expand the processing fee at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 4, Brent rose 1.00 to 65.63, WTI fell 0.18 to 63.23. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased significantly [2]. - **Supply Factors**: Canadian wildfires led to a supply interruption of about 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2509 rose 17 to 2225. The MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 61 to 6 [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 5.64%, and port inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased significantly [5]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The styrene East - China spot price fell 330 to 7430. The EB07 - EB08 spread decreased by 24 to 78 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and styrene supply may increase while demand is weak [9]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 increased by 4 to - 28, and PP2505 - 2509 increased by 19 to - 39 [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the开工 rates of some devices changed [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: For caustic soda, FOB East - China port price rose to 410. For PVC, V2505 fell 58 to 4905 [33][34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda has many maintenance plans in June, and PVC supply is expected to increase in the short - term [38]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 contract fell 12 to 1761. The 05 contract - 09 contract spread increased by 13 to - 43 [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production reached 207,000 tons, and enterprise inventory increased by 6.9%. Demand is in the off - season [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: PX prices fell, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 31 to 366. PTA prices decreased, and the PTA spot processing fee increased by 66 to 444 [44]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of some devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as a 2.6% increase in the Asian PX开工率 [44].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 品种 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | -27.21 | 15.20% | IF期现价差 | -9.38 | 20.00% | H期现价差 | -18.70 | -7.20 | 15.50% | 9.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -13.17 | 13.90% | -56.44 | 15.80% | IM期现价差 | -72.04 | 15.10% | -11.48 | 80.00% | 4.90% | 8.40% | 次月-3月 | -37.20 | -0.40 | | | 7.30% | 13.30% ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王泽辉 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | | Z0019938 | | | 原 | | | | | | 6月3日 | | | 5月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 江苏一级 8050 | 现价 | | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | Y2509 7428 | 期价 | | 7422 | 6 | 0.08% | | Y2509 622 | 基差 | | 628 | -6 | -0.96% | | 江苏6月 09 + 300 | 现货墓差报价 | | 09 + 300 | 0 | - | | 17152 | 仓单 | | 17152 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | 6月3日 | | | 5月30日 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 广东24度 8750 | 现价 | | 8630 | 120 | 1.39% | | P2509 8016 | 期价 | | 7934 | 82 | 1.03% ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | 2025年6月4日 | | | | 将诗语 Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | | | 张庆 涨跌幅 单位 | | 华北报价 | | | | | 1160 | 1180 | | | -20 -1.69% | | 华东报价 | | | | | 1290 | 1300 | | | -10 -0.77% | | 1110 | | | | | 华中报价 1110 | | | | 0 0.00% | | 华南报价 | | | | | 1320 | 1320 | | | 0 0.00% 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | | | | | 1069 | 1096 | | | -27 -2.46% | | 玻璃2509 | | | | | ਰੇਟੇ ਕੇ | 982 | ...

| 硅铁 (SF507) | 5628 | 5196 | 432 | 8.31% | 94.90% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5422 | 248 | 4.57% | 62.70% | 5670 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 162 | 5.53% | 3090 | 2928 | 66.40% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3170 | 118 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3052 | 3.87% | 61.30% | | | | | | 70 | 765 | 54.00% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 696 | 10.04% | 焦炭 (J2509) | 58 | 13 ...