1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term negative factors for the index have been exhausted, and it has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETFs have also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly. Core assets are expected to rise. Before the festival, there may be capital withdrawals, and there will be short - term fluctuations [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market has recovered, but the overall market sentiment is fragile and sensitive to negative factors. In the short term, with unclear positive factors, the bond market may maintain a volatile trend [3]. - For precious metals, the market sentiment needs time to recover after the sharp fall in the gold market due to rapid capital outflows. The "irrational" upward trend of silver is expected to end, bringing volatility reduction [3]. - The steel market is in a state of production reduction and inventory reduction, and the price maintains a range - bound trend [3]. - The new energy market has different trends. For example, the industrial silicon futures have rebounded in a volatile manner, while the lithium carbonate market has seen significant adjustments due to the profit - taking of risk - averse funds before the festival [3]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Futures Variety Views - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: The copper price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. It is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high. The main contract focuses on the support level of 95,500 - 96,000 [3]. - Aluminum: The spot discount has widened to a high value this year. Long positions can take short - term profits when the price is high. The main contract operates in the range of 21,800 - 22,800, and long positions can be arranged after the price correction [3]. - Zinc: The decline in TC supports the price, and the spot performance is average. The main contract refers to the range of 22,800 - 23,800, with a low - buying strategy in the range, and the cross - market reverse arbitrage should be continued to hold [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - PX: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between PX2605 and PX2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - PTA: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between TA2605 and TA2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has risen significantly. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread of the 05 contract [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Corn: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has fallen after rising. It is in a weakly volatile state [3]. - Cotton: The supply - demand outlook is optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream enterprises. It is in a strongly volatile state [3]. - Apple: The demand is weak, and the price is falling. It is recommended to close long positions at an appropriate time [3]. 3.2 Futures Variety Operation Suggestions - **Stock Index Futures**: It is recommended to continue to hold the bull spread portfolio and match it with a small amount of short - selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and the central bank's bond - buying situation. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of the first - quarter economic start and the stock market trend. The unilateral strategy is to wait and see for the time being, continue to pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and still tend to steepen the yield curve in the curve strategy [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is recommended to be purchased at a low price after the Spring Festival. For silver, before the New Year's Day, it is recommended to close or lock the positions and wait for a suitable allocation window after the festival [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of various commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Indonesia's plan to cut nickel production in 2026 has boosted market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains uncertain. The short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited, with the main contract reference range of 126,000 - 135,000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanex's production interruption in Chile has led to a price increase. The port is facing inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to shift to destocking in the first quarter of the next year. The price in the inland area is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is in the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term, with attention paid to the changes in farmers' selling mentality and policy releases [4]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market shows a structural theme market, with the index oscillating at a high level. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a bull spread combination and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [5][7]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but it is still fragile. It is expected to be in a volatile situation in the short term. After the New Year, attention should be paid to the capital flow, central bank's bond - buying, and other factors [8][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The Fed's December meeting minutes have a neutral impact. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium - to - long - term, investors can consider bargain - hunting after the New Year [11][13]. 3.4 Shipping (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is overestimated. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [16][19]. - **Alumina**: Policy incentives are difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The TC decline supports the price. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to import profitability, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [27][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has subsided, and the price has fallen sharply. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the macro situation and supply - side recovery [30][35]. - **Nickel**: Driven by news and technical factors, the price has broken through the previous high. The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with attention paid to nickel ore news and steel mill production cuts [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The end - of - year news has increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [42][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. In January, there is pressure to cut production due to weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [47][49]. 3.6 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is in a volatile trend. The production cut and inventory reduction support the price, but the weak demand limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is facing the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a short - term long - position attempt [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price has peaked and declined. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [55][59]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts has been launched. The supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [60][64]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [65][68]. - **Silicomanganese**: The manganese ore supports the price, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to be volatile, with interval operations recommended [69][71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean harvest expectation suppresses the market. The domestic spot is loose. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [72][74]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [75][76]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term [77][79]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. The domestic supply pressure restricts the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [80][82]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are in a bottom - level oscillation. The domestic price has reached a new high for the year. The short - term price may correct, and the medium - to - long - term trend is relatively optimistic [83][85]. - **Egg**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [86][87]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil has a short - term upward trend, but the overall oils should not be over - bullish. Different oils have different price trends and risks [88][90]. - **Jujube**: The cost supports the price, but the consumption improvement is limited. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 01 contract and the Spring Festival stocking [91][92]. - **Apple**: The demand is weak, and the price is declining. The short - term market is in a game between scarce delivery fruits and high - inventory ordinary fruits [93]. 3.8 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The valuation has increased significantly, and the downstream negative feedback is prominent. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [94][95]. - **PTA**: The processing fee has recovered, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [96][97]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [98]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply expectation increases. The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply is expected to shrink, but the near - month inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread on EG5 - 9 at high prices [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is limited. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [103][104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short above 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [105][106]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the transaction is neutral. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [107]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the PDH profit expansion [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the MTO05 spread contraction [108][109]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the现货 price has declined steadily. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [109][110]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the high - price transaction is light. The price is expected to weaken after a rebound [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The production rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: Supported by production line cold - repair and improved sales rate, the price is expected to be in a bottom - level oscillation and strengthen [113][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to hold short positions [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, and the price follows the commodity trend. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation between 11,200 - 12,000 [118][119].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The 03 contract's fundamentals have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upside potential. The market is expected to trade in a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On December 30th, the log 2601 contract was at 756.0, down 4.5 (-0.59%) from the previous day; the log 2603 contract remained flat at 776.0; the log 2605 contract was at 787.5, up 2.5 (0.32%) [2]. - The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on December 30th compared to the previous day. The latest round of FOB quotes for radiata pine 4m medium A was 112 USD/JAS m³, and for spruce 11.8m was 126 EUR/JAS m³, both unchanged [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 29th, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.008, up 0.01 from the previous day, with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 from the previous day, with a 0% change [2]. Supply: Monthly - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million m³, down 12.1 million m³ (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 254 million m³, down 6 million m³ (-2.31%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 185.2 million m³, up 2.15%. In Jiangsu, it was 52.1 million m³, down 9.4 million m³ (-15.30%) [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 5.89 million m³, down 0.49 million m³ (-8%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million m³, down 0.55 million m³ (-16%). In Jiangsu, it was 2.44 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (-3%) [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 New Zealand softwood log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million m³, an increase of 20.45 million m³ from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [3].

Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report on all varieties dated December 31, 2025, with investment consulting business qualification (Certificate No. [2011] 1292) [2] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Futures price is 5750, the spot price is 5678, the basis is -72, the basis rate is -1.29%, and the historical quantile is 48.60% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Futures price is 5942, the basis is -0.37%, and the historical quantile is 21.60% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price is 3134, the spot price is 3300, the basis is 166, the basis rate is 5.30%, and the historical quantile is 66.60% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Futures price is 3282, the basis is 17.70%, and the historical quantile is not provided [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Futures price is 870, the spot price is 789, the basis is -81, the basis rate is -10.22%, and the historical quantile is 61.00% [1] - **Coke (J2605)**: Futures price is 1715, the spot price is 1713, the basis is -2, the basis rate is -0.14%, and the historical quantile is 63.40% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Futures price is 1156, the spot price is 1120, the basis is 37, the basis rate is 3.26%, and the historical quantile is 36.70% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2602)**: Futures price is 97620, the spot price is 98090, the basis is -470, the basis rate is -0.48%, and the historical quantile is 14.37% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: Futures price is 22180, the spot price is 22565, the basis is -385, the basis rate is -1.71%, and the historical quantile is 0.41% [1] - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Futures price is 2701, the spot price is 2751, the basis is -50, the basis rate is -1.82%, and the historical quantile is 17.62% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: Futures price is 23230, the spot price is 23380, the basis is -150, the basis rate is -0.64%, and the historical quantile is 23.95% [1] - **Tin (SN2602)**: Futures price is 323500, the spot price is 326330, the basis is -2830, the basis rate is -0.87%, and the historical quantile is 8.95% [1] - **Nickel (NI2602)**: Futures price is 129300, the spot price is 132390, the basis is -3090, the basis rate is 0.62%, and the historical quantile is 400 (not clear if this is correct format) [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: Futures price is 13090, the spot price is 13320, the basis is 230, the basis rate is 1.76%, and the historical quantile is 42.91% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Futures price is 118000, the spot price is 121580, the basis is -3580, the basis rate is -2.94%, and the historical quantile is 13.21% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SIS605)**: Futures price is 335, the spot price is 9250, the basis is 8915, the basis rate is 19.96%, and the historical quantile is not provided [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Futures price is 982.2, the spot price is 984.8, the basis is -2.6, the basis rate is -0.27%, and the historical quantile is 29.40% [1] - **Silver (AG2604)**: Futures price is 18119.0, the spot price is 18140.0, the basis is -21.0, the basis rate is -0.12%, and the historical quantile is 49.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M5605)**: Futures price is 2778.0, the spot price is 3060, the basis is 282.0, the basis rate is 10.15%, and the historical quantile is 67.90% [1] - **Soybean Oil (A5e02)**: Futures price is 7878.0, the spot price is 8300, the basis is 422.0, the basis rate is 5.36%, and the historical quantile is 73.30% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Futures price is 8620, the spot price is 8658.0, the basis is -38.0, the basis rate is -0.44%, and the historical quantile is 15.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Futures price is 2403.0, the spot price is 2550, the basis is 147.0, the basis rate is 6.12%, and the historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Futures price is 9086.0, the spot price is 9820, the basis is 734.0, the basis rate is 8.08%, and the historical quantile is 94.60% [1] - **Corn (C2603)**: Futures price is 2230.0, the spot price is 2330, the basis is 100.0, the basis rate is 4.48%, and the historical quantile is 88.70% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Futures price is 2526.0, the spot price is 2620, the basis is 94.0, the basis rate is 3.72%, and the historical quantile is 42.90% [1] - **Live Hogs (H2603)**: Futures price is 11790.0, the spot price is 12500, the basis is 710.0, the basis rate is 6.02%, and the historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **Eggs (JD2602)**: Futures price is 2910, the spot price is 2938.0, the basis is -28.0, the basis rate is -0.99%, and the historical quantile is 36.80% [1] - **Cotton (CF605)**: Futures price is 14560.0, the spot price is 15384, the basis is 824.0, the basis rate is 5.66%, and the historical quantile is 34.80% [1] - **Sugar (SR605)**: Futures price is 5258.0, the spot price is 5420, the basis is 162.0, the basis rate is 3.08%, and the historical quantile is 0.00% [1] - **Apples (AP605)**: Futures price is 9200, the spot price is 9200, the basis is 0.0, the basis rate is 23.70%, and the historical quantile is not provided [1] - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: Futures price is 8300, the spot price is 9020.0, the basis is -720.0, the basis rate is -7.98%, and the historical quantile is 58.30% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX603)**: Futures price is 7316.0, the spot price is 7203.0, the basis is -113.0, the basis rate is -1.54%, and the historical quantile is 9.20% [1] - **PTA (TA605)**: Futures price is 5144.0, the spot price is 5100.0, the basis is 44.0, the basis rate is -0.80%, and the historical quantile is 40.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Futures price is 3847.0, the spot price is 3710.0, the basis is -137.0, the basis rate is -3.56%, and the historical quantile is 9.60% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Futures price is 6564.0, the spot price is 6540.0, the basis is -24.0, the basis rate is -0.37%, and the historical quantile is 34.90% [1] - **Styrene (EB2602)**: Futures price is 6860.0, the spot price is 6781.0, the basis is 79.0, the basis rate is 1.17%, and the historical quantile is 46.50% [1] - **Methanol (MA605)**: Futures price is 2219.0, the spot price is 2182.0, the basis is -37.0, the basis rate is -1.67%, and the historical quantile is 15.60% [1] - **Urea (UR605)**: Futures price is 1743.0, the spot price is 1710.0, the basis is -33.0, the basis rate is -1.89%, and the historical quantile is 7.80% [1] - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Futures price is 6461.0, the spot price is 6365.0, the basis is -96.0, the basis rate is -1.49%, and the historical quantile is 3.90% [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: Futures price is 6321.0, the spot price is 6275.0, the basis is -46.0, the basis rate is -0.73%, and the historical quantile is 14.40% [1] - **PVC (V2605)**: Futures price is 4810.0, the spot price is 4500.0, the basis is -310.0, the basis rate is -6.44%, and the historical quantile is 5.80% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Futures price is 2196.9, the spot price is 2273.0, the basis is -76.1, the basis rate is -3.35%, and the historical quantile is 31.80% [1] - **LPG (PG2602)**: Futures price is 4528.0, the spot price is 4097.0, the basis is 431.0, the basis rate is 10.52%, and the historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2602)**: Futures price is 3038.0, the spot price is 2940.0, the basis is -98.0, the basis rate is -3.23%, and the historical quantile is 30.50% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: Futures price is 11565.0, the spot price is 11500.0, the basis is -65.0, the basis rate is -0.56%, and the historical quantile is 22.80% [1] - **Float Glass (FG605)**: Futures price is 896.0, the spot price is 1051.0, the basis is -155.0, the basis rate is -17.30%, and the historical quantile is 8.19% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Futures price is 1122.0, the spot price is 1181.0, the basis is -59.0, the basis rate is -5.26%, and the historical quantile is 18.69% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Futures price is 15300.0, the spot price is 15670.0, the basis is -370.0, the basis rate is -2.42%, and the historical quantile is 74.89% [1] Financial Futures - **IF2603.CFF**: Futures price is 4651.3, the spot price is 4622.2, the basis is 29.1, the basis rate is 0.63%, and the historical quantile is 14.20% [1] - **IH2603.CFE**: Futures price is 3036.6, the spot price is 3035.4, the basis is 1.2, the basis rate is 0.04%, and the historical quantile is 49.70% [1] - **IC2603.CFE**: Futures price is 7458.9, the spot price is 7381.0, the basis is 77.9, the basis rate is 1.06%, and the historical quantile is 6.80% [1] - **IM2603.CFE**: Futures price is 7459.2, the spot price is 7597.3, the basis is -138.1, the basis rate is 1.85%, and the historical quantile is 10.60% [1] - **2 - Year Bond (152603)**: Futures price is 100.13, the spot price is 102.48, the basis is -2.35 (calculated), the basis rate is -1.85%, and the historical quantile is 17.80% [1] - **5 - Year Bond (TF2603)**: Futures price is 105.81, the spot price is 99.51, the basis is -6.3 (calculated), the basis rate is 0.07%, and the historical quantile is 17.90% [1] - **10 - Year Bond (T2603)**: Futures price is 107.94, the spot price is 100.31, the basis is -7.63 (calculated), the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 22.70% [1] - **30 - Year Bond (TL2603)**: Futures price is 126.22, the spot price is 111.80, the basis is -14.42 (calculated), the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile is 42.50% [1]

| と期現日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 Z0019938 2025年12月31日 王涛辉 | | 田和 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8410 8390 20 0.24% | | 期价 Y2605 7878 7818 ୧୦ 0.77% | | 基差 Y2605 532 572 -40 -6.99% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 + 520 0 - | | 仓单 28264 28264 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌幅 涨跌 | | 8590 100 现价 广东24度 8490 1.18% | | 期价 P2605 8658 8512 146 1.72% | | 星差 P2605 -68 -22 -46 -209.09% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05 + 120 05 + 120 0 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港5月 9099.8 9051.2 48.6 0.54% | | 盘面进口利润 广州港5月 -442 -539 97 18.07% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin Industry - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, with a steady increase in imports in November and a significant increase in Indonesia's exports in November. The trading volume of the exchange in December also remained at a relatively high level. - In the demand aspect, tin solder enterprises in South China showed certain resilience, while those in East China were more obviously affected. - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, and the tin price has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended to be cautious in operation and pay attention to the macro and supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy of encouraging mergers and reorganizations is more of an emotional drive, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended that pre - existing long positions be closed at high prices [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum prices and the market trading became light. The cost is strongly supported, but the demand is weak. The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [5]. Zinc Industry - The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, but the opening of the zinc ore import window may ease the short - term supply pressure. The increase in refined zinc production is limited, while the demand side is better, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. - In the future, the price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventories [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. The price is expected to enter a shock adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the support level [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a slight decline, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the intensity of production reduction [13]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon futures further reduced positions and rebounded. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industrial chain by raising prices, but the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [14]. Nickel Industry - The Indonesian government's plan to cut nickel production has driven up market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains to be seen. The short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market was driven by raw material nickel, and the market sentiment improved. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. It is expected to maintain a strong shock adjustment in the short term [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a large amplitude. The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The price is supported by fundamentals, but the new driving force is limited. The market is affected by market sentiment, and the disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock before the New Year's Day [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 5.82% to 323,500 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 12.50% to 350 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 26.92% to 95.00 dollars/ton [2]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 7.19% to - 13,988.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained at 7.87 [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 70.73%, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 18.06% [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, the output of refined tin decreased by 0.81%, the import volume of refined tin increased by 127.19%, and the export volume increased by 31.62%. - The average operating rate of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.76%, and the operating rate of SMM solder enterprises increased by 0.96% [2]. Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, social inventory increased by 2.02%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68%, and LME inventory increased by 3.60% [2]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.38% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - The prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged [4]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 34.3 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 1.1 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread of AL 2601 - 2602 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of AL 2602 - 2603 remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of alumina decreased by 4.44%, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas output decreased by 3.50%. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83%, and the export volume increased by 116.23%. - The operating rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory of various types increased to varying degrees [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - The prices of various types of SMM ADC12 decreased by 0.45%. - The refined - scrap price differences of various types of aluminum increased to varying degrees [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 25.0 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. - The import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.19%, and the export volume decreased by 0.97%. - The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.06% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.60% to 23,300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 175.63 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 10.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of refined zinc decreased by 3.56%, the import volume decreased by 3.22%, and the export volume increased by 402.59%. - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased to varying degrees. - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 10.12%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 3.10% to 97,620 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 90.00 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 33.11% [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 1.05%, and the import volume decreased by 3.90%. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 27.55% [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of some types changed to varying degrees [13]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees, such as the spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 16.67% [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national output of industrial silicon decreased by 11.17%, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. - The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, and the output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 21.78% [13]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 2.33%, the social inventory increased by 0.36%, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5.09% [13]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 37.45% [14]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 4.16%, and the spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees [14]. Fundamental Data - The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 3.19%, and the monthly output decreased by 10.35%. - The monthly output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%, the import volume decreased by 27.05%, and the export volume increased by 108.68% [14]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.65% to 132,550 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.55% to 136,150 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 decreased by 14.82% to - 170 dollars/ton [15]. Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP increased by 0.19%, and the cost from integrated high - grade nickel matte decreased by 3.60% [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2604 - 2605 increased by 100 yuan/ton [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The output of refined nickel in China decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.85% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.77%. - The prices of some raw materials remained unchanged, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.27% [18]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, and 2604 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [18]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the output in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 9.68%, and the export volume increased by 13.18%. - The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.50% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. - The price of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.68% [20]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, and 2601 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume decreased by 7.64%, and the export volume increased by 208.75%. - The total inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [20].

广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者：期市有风险 入市需谨慎！ ax 2017-0 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 集运产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月31日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 集运指数 | | | | | | | 结算价指数 | 12月29日 | 12月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | SCFIS (欧洲航线) | 1742.64 | 1589.20 | 153.4 | 9.66% | 点 | | SCFIS (美西航线) | 1301.41 | 952.10 | 349.3 | 36.69% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 12月26日 | 12月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFI综合指数 | 1552.92 | 1506.46 | 46.5 | 3.08% | 点 | | SCFI (欧洲) | 1690 | 1533 | 157.0 | ...

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2 0 11】1292号 2025年12月31日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 12月30日 | 12月29日 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 位 | | AU2602合约 | 984.84 | 1007.18 | -22.34 | -2.22% | 元/克 | | AG2602合约 | 18140 | 18205 | -65 | -0.36% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 589.85 | 634.35 | -44.50 | -7.02% | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 447.45 | 494.10 | -46.65 | -9.44% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 12月30日 | 12月29日 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4352.30 | 4350.20 | 2.10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including the total positions and the changes in the positions of the top 20 long and short seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties [1]. Summary by Directory IF - Total positions significantly increased, with a rise of 5274 lots on December 30, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 4446 lots [1][3]. - Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 46789 lots. Guotou Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1932 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 1010 lots [4]. - Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 39390 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 2129 lots, while Haitong Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 1180 lots [6]. IH - Total positions slightly increased, with a rise of 1165 lots on December 30, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 687 lots [1][9]. - Among the top 20 long seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 10587 lots. Guoxin Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 380 lots, while CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 586 lots [10]. - Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 12846 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 314 lots, while CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 517 lots [11]. IC - Total positions significantly increased, with a rise of 13084 lots on December 30, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 7012 lots [1][15]. - Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 48908 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 2200 lots, and Guotou Futures was the only one with a long - position decrease, reducing 20 lots [16]. - Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 50397 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 3052 lots, and Bank of China Futures was the only one with a short - position decrease, reducing 37 lots [18]. IM - Total positions significantly increased, with a rise of 11019 lots on December 30, and the position of the main contract 2603 increased by 7365 lots [1][21]. - Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 57820 lots. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 2397 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 263 lots [21]. - Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 77518 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 3964 lots, while Everbright Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 237 lots [22].