1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold existing long - positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - end changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc Industry - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, and domestic zinc prices may be stronger than LME zinc prices. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes [4]. Copper Industry - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price center [6]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The market's ability to rebound depends on the actual scale of enterprise production cuts and inventory changes. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after reaching high levels [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. If prices fall to the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. Hold existing long - positions if available [9]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at high levels, but the probability of a decline to converge with spot prices is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the time being [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term. Pay attention to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11][12]. Nickel Industry - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term. Pay attention to steel mills' implementation of production cuts and raw material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 314,000 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; SMM 1 tin premium remains unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Yangtze 1 tin price is 314,500 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; LME 0 - 3 premium remains unchanged at 70 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - Import loss is 15,329.05 yuan/ton, with a 7.76% increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.91 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 350 yuan/ton, up 36.36% from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% month - on - month [1]. - Refined tin exports in October were 1,480 tons, down 15.33% month - on - month; Indonesian refined tin exports in October were 2,600 tons, down 45.83% month - on - month [1]. - SMM refined tin average operating rate in October was 66.81%, up 53.23% month - on - month; SMM solder enterprise operating rate in November was 73.80%, up 0.96% from the previous value [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory is 6,865 tons, up 1.96% from the previous value; social inventory is 8,012 tons, up 2.39% from the previous value [1]. Zinc Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remains unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton; the premium is 70 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss is 4,330 yuan/ton, with a 549.10 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.45 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - Refined zinc production in November was 59.52 tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; refined zinc imports in October were 1.88 tons, down 16.94% month - on - month [4]. - Refined zinc exports in October were 0.85 tons, up 243.79% month - on - month; galvanizing operating rate is 58.20%, up 1.66% week - on - week [4]. Inventory Changes - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots is 13.60 tons, down 5.75% week - on - week; LME inventory is 5.8 tons, up 4.29% week - on - week [4]. Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 0.78% from the previous value; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - Electrolytic copper production in November was 110.31 tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; electrolytic copper imports in October were 28.21 tons, down 15.61% month - on - month [6]. Inventory Changes - Domestic social inventory is 16.03 tons, up 0.82% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory is 7.75 tons, down 12.82% week - on - week [6]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,920 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Electrolytic aluminum import loss is 1,856 yuan/ton, with a 103 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.64 [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts AL 2512 - 2601 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Fundamental Data - Alumina production in November was 743.94 tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic aluminum production in November was 363.66 tons, down 2.82% month - on - month [8]. Inventory Changes - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 59.50 tons, down 0.17% week - on - week; LME inventory is 52.6 tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 8,300 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous value; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous value [9]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 8,675 yuan/ton, down 5,696.77% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production is 40.17 tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 23.76 tons, up 0.83% month - on - month [9]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang inventory is 12.38 tons, up 2.82% from the previous value; social inventory is 55.80 tons, up 1.45% week - on - week [9]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remains unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remains unchanged at 50,000 yuan/kg [10]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spread - The main contract price is 54,545 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from the previous value; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 16.51% from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Polysilicon production is 2.58 tons, up 7.50% week - on - week; polysilicon production in the month is 11.46 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month [10]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory is 29.10 tons, up 3.56% from the previous value; silicon wafer inventory is 21.30 tons, up 9.23% from the previous value [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,600 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous value; the scrap - to - new price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,761 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from the previous value [11]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 68.20 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 30.27 tons, up 5.84% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Changes - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 5.53 tons, down 0.54% from the previous value; the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan is 35,326 tons, down 0.48% from the previous value [11]. Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,200 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous value; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 4,950 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous value [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [13]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% month - on - month; refined nickel imports are 9,741 tons, down 65.66% month - on - month [13]. Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory is 42,508 tons, up 4.23% week - on - week; social inventory is 26,848 tons, up 2.71% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous value [14]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 115 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) is 178.70 tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) is 42.35 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 49.20 tons, down 2.06% week - on - week; 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 29.82 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,750 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 90,350 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 80 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - Lithium carbonate production in November was 23,500 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month; lithium carbonate demand in November was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% month - on - month [17]. Inventory Changes - Lithium carbonate total inventory in November was 64,560 tons, down 23.36% month - on - month; lithium carbonate downstream inventory in November was 42,030 tons, down 21.13% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, treasury bond futures spreads, precious metal spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures, along with their changes compared to previous periods and historical percentile rankings [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF, IH, IC, IM Spreads**: The reports provide data on the current spreads (such as spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads) of IF, IH, IC, and IM, their changes from the previous day, and historical percentile rankings. For example, the IC spot - futures spread is 28.37, up 13.73 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 70.00% [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Data on cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., are presented, including their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.5519, up 0.0037 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 75.00% [1] Treasury Bond Futures Spreads - **Basis**: The basis data of TS, TF, T, and TL are given, along with their changes from the previous trading day and the percentile rankings since listing. For example, the TS basis is 1.5385, down 0.0283 from the previous day, with a percentile ranking of 23.60% [3] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (such as current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - far quarter) of TS, TF, T, and TL are provided, including their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [3] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented, along with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [3] Precious Metal Spot - Futures - **Domestic and Overseas Futures Closing Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and overseas precious metal futures contracts (such as AU2602, COMEX gold, etc.) on different dates are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of precious metals (such as London gold, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D, etc.) on different dates are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5] - **Basis**: The basis data of precious metals (such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, London gold - COMEX gold, etc.) are presented, including their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [5] - **Price Ratios**: Price ratios of precious metals (such as COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, etc.) are provided, along with their values, changes, and percentage changes [5] - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Data on interest rates (such as 10 - year US Treasury bond yield), exchange rates (such as US dollar index), inventory (such as Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory), and positions (such as SPDR gold ETF holdings) are presented, along with their values, changes, and percentage changes [5] Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes of SCFIS (European and US West routes) and Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) are provided, including their values on different dates, price changes, and percentage changes [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC contracts (such as EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are presented, along with their values on different dates, price changes, and percentage changes [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping industry fundamentals such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (Shanghai port on - time rate, port call situation), monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (eurozone composite PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, OECD composite leading indicators) are provided, along with their values, changes, and percentage changes [7]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 # 泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月9日 | | | | 臣沿 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8600 8600 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8230 8266 | -36 | -0.44% | | Y2601 墓差 370 334 | 36 | 10.78% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+260 01+260 | 0 | ﺗ | | 仓单 22994 22769 | 225 | 0.99% | | 棕榈油 | | | | 12月8日 12月5日 流跌 | | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8690 8740 | -50 | -0.57% | | 期价 P2601 8706 8770 | -64 | -0.73% | | 星差 P2601 -16 -30 | 14 | 46.67% | | 现货墓差报价 0 广东1月 01+50 01+50 | | - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have significantly declined, and the basis has strengthened during the period. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend, while steel mill profits have converged. The decline in steel prices is mainly affected by the fall in raw material prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction, with weak downward momentum. However, the total demand is average, and the decline in hot - metal production suppresses raw material prices. Currently, steel prices are falling, and attention should be paid to the support near the lower limit of the range. The 5 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils should pay attention to the support levels of 3100 and 3200 respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the spread convergence arbitrage can be continued. Considering the decline in hot - metal production, which suppresses iron ore prices, the long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage of the January contract can be continued [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot - metal output decreased, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of five major steel products, steel output decreased, inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand seasonally decreased. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, and the port clearance volume decreased, while the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking forward, this week, hot - metal output decreased, steel prices showed signs of bottom - rebounding, market expectations began to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a large decline in hot - metal output, which supports iron ore demand. Iron ore has support from downstream restocking on one hand and a need for basis repair on the other hand. Considering the high price level, iron ore futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to sell short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 750 - 820. The 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [6]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the first round of coke price cuts started to be implemented at 0:00 on December 1st, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coking coal varieties have continued to decline. Coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, coking profits have been repaired to some extent, and the operating rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, steel prices have fluctuated and rebounded, and steel mill profits have been repaired to some extent, with a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level, and the coke supply - demand situation has weakened. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - exploring stage. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to decline, Mongolian coal quotes fell, and the recent auction failure rate has fluctuated between 30 - 50%. Traders are cautious and the thermal coal market has continued to decline. The coal spot market has once again shifted to a loose situation. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to unsold products, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures price down, and the recent customs clearance has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, the coking profit has recovered, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The market's restocking demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking enterprises and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and ports have increased inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term contract coal supply for power plants remains the main tone, and the over - capacity pattern continues. In terms of strategy, coking coal spot prices have continued to fall, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the main contract has shifted to the Coking Coal 2605 contract. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have all declined. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils has shown different changes. For example, the basis of rebar in the East China region is 163, and the basis of hot - rolled coils in the East China region is - 10. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have decreased by 40 to 2950, and plate billet prices remain unchanged at 3730. The costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar have both decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coils in the East China, North China, and South China regions, as well as the profits of rebar in different regions, have shown different changes, with some profits narrowing [2]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products has decreased by 26.8 to 829.0, a decline of 3.1%. The rebar output has decreased by 16.8 to 189.3, a decline of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output has decreased by 4.7 to 314.3, a decline of 1.5% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 35.2 to 1365.6, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory has decreased from 531.5 to 503.8, and hot - rolled coil inventory has slightly decreased from 400.9 to 400.4 [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume has decreased by 1.3 to 10.2, a decline of 15.1%. The apparent demand of five major steel products has decreased by 23.8 to 864.2, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar has decreased by 11.0 to 217.0, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 5.4 to 314.9, a decline of 1.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines have all decreased. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore varieties has increased to varying degrees. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.5 to 23.5, a decline of 6.0%, the 9 - 1 spread remains unchanged at - 41.5, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 1.5 to 18.0, an increase of 9.1% [6]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 218.8 to 2480.5, a decline of 8.1%, and the global shipment volume (weekly) has increased by 45.4 to 3368.6, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume has decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9, a decline of 4.3% [6]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 8.5 to 318.5, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron output has decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel output has decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7, a decline of 2.0% [6]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (compared with Monday, weekly) has increased by 63.4 to 15300.81, an increase of 0.4%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) has increased by 42.3 to 8984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) have decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a decline of 5.0% [6]. Coke Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The prices of the 01 and 05 coke contracts have declined. The coking profit (weekly) has decreased from - 43 to - 54 [10]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has increased by 0.8 to 64.5, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.3 to 46.6, an increase of 0.6% [10]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0% [10]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has decreased slightly from 884.7 to 883.0. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants has increased from 71.8 to 76.4, an increase of 6.5%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased from 187.4 to 181.3, a decline of 3.3% [10]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has changed from - 1.3 to 2.2, an increase of 3.6 [10]. Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) have declined. The prices of the 01 and 05 coking coal contracts have declined. The coking coal profit (weekly) of sample coal mines has decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [10]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines has decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output has decreased by 0.6 to 438.2, a decline of 0.1% [10]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the production situation of coke. As the coking profit recovers, the operating rate of coking plants has slightly increased, but the overall demand has weakened due to the decline in hot - metal output [10]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines has increased from 107.6 to 127.6, an increase of 18.7%. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants has slightly decreased from 1010.3 to 1009.2, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased from 801.3 to 798.3, a decline of 0.4%, and the port inventory has increased [10].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位减仓为主 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君中信均明显减仓 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多空头均减仓 4000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -10,475.0 -3,888.0 -14,425.0 -20,556.0 -4,343.0 -3,064.0 -11,667.0 -20,325.0 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as the December Fed FOMC meeting, employment data, and the Politburo meeting. Different varieties in the futures market show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - With the likely scenario of continued interest - rate cuts due to weak employment data and a positive Politburo meeting, A - share major indices have stabilized. After confirming the stage bottom, low volatility is expected to be followed by an increase in volatility. It's difficult to conduct short - term unilateral futures long operations, and one can lightly and gradually lay out bull spreads of CSI 1000 put options on pullbacks [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year treasury bond faces resistance near 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may find support around 107.6. The 30 - 10Y spread has reached a high this year, but unfavorable factors in ultra - long - term varieties are hard to reverse in the short term. One can lightly test long positions in varieties within 10 years if sentiment improves and avoid 30 - year varieties. It's recommended to wait and see on the unilateral strategy and prefer varieties within 10 years when market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may still tend to steepen [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating around $4200, and one can use the strategy of selling out - of - the - money option straddles to earn time value. Silver has weak physical delivery demand and limited upward momentum. Platinum and palladium price fluctuations have narrowed, and an intraday short - term high - selling and low - buying operation is recommended [2]. Shipping Index Futures - The EC (European Line) main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Ferrous Metals - For steel, due to steel mill production cuts, a "long - rebar, short - iron ore" arbitrage is recommended, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar should be narrowed. Iron ore is expected to weaken from high - level oscillation as molten iron production drops and port inventories increase. For coking coal, with the expansion of price cuts in the origin and a decline in Mongolian coal prices, the futures price is in a weak downward trend. For coke, the first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trade price has led the decline. All are viewed with a bearish oscillation outlook [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper demand is weakening, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can take profits on rallies. Alumina is oscillating around the industry's cash - cost bottom, with limited short - term downside. Aluminum is affected by macro - disturbances, and short - term long positions can be taken on dips. For zinc, due to export - driven tight spot supply, zinc prices are oscillating at a high level, and cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities should be noted. Tin has a strong fundamental situation and is oscillating at a high level, with the idea of holding previous long positions and going long on pullbacks [2]. New Energy - Industrial silicon futures prices have rebounded after a decline, and existing long positions can be held. Polysilicon futures opened lower and closed higher after new delivery brands were added, and it's advisable to wait and see. Lithium carbonate has strengthened again, but there are still large market differences [2]. Chemicals - PX has a tight medium - term supply - demand outlook and strong support. PTA has a near - strong and far - weak supply - demand pattern, with limited rebound space. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and its processing fee is mainly compressed. Bottle - grade polyester chips continue to have a loose supply - demand pattern in December, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed. Ethanol is still searching for a bottom as port inventories continue to tighten and market sentiment is under pressure. Benzene is in a situation where the port is accumulating inventory, with near - term weakness and long - term strength [2]. Agricultural Products - Corn is under pressure as downstream receiving is sluggish. Palm oil is oscillating, and soybean oil has slightly declined following the external market. Sugar in the northern hemisphere's crushing season is progressing well. Cotton should be monitored according to the USDA supply - demand report. Eggs' production capacity is being reduced slowly. Apples' sales are slowing down. Red dates' supply pressure restricts the rebound of the futures price [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers detailed analyses and outlooks for various futures products, encompassing financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions for each product based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, market sentiment, and macro - economic policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in certain sectors is stable. A bullish stance on tin prices is recommended, with existing long positions to be held and additional long positions to be added on price pullbacks [2]. - **Corn**: The corn market is under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. The short - term outlook is for a downward trend, but the decline may be limited. Short - term trading is advised [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Port inventories are continuously increasing, and market sentiment is bearish. EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. A bearish view on coking coal is maintained, with a recommended trading range of 1000 - 1150. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is suggested [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market rallied on Monday, with most major indices rising. TMT sectors were particularly strong, while cyclical sectors corrected. - **News**: The Politburo meeting proposed a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026. Overseas, Trump ordered an investigation into the US food supply chain. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume increased by over 300 billion yuan, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the upcoming Fed meeting and the expected rate cut, it is recommended to lightly and gradually build a bullish spread on CSI 1000 put options on price pullbacks [6][7][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year contract declined, while the 10 - year contract rose slightly. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of improving the quality and effectiveness of policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to temporarily observe the market. If market sentiment improves, consider going long on Treasury bond futures with maturities of less than 10 years. A curve - steepening strategy is also suggested [9][10][12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation expectations were stable, and employment data improved. Japan's GDP contracted in Q3. The Fed's "shadow chairman" was less dovish than expected, leading to a stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields. Precious metals prices continued to fluctuate. - **Outlook**: Gold prices are expected to trade sideways around $4200. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides is recommended. Silver prices are also expected to be range - bound. Platinum prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term but may be affected by short - term fluctuations in gold and silver prices [13][14][15]. Shipping Index (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - **Index**: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and other related indices showed a downward trend. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's PMI was above 50, while the US manufacturing PMI was below 50. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term sideways movement [18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level and volatile. Supply concerns are growing, and demand has weakened at high prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long - term and take profits on short - term long positions when prices are high [19][20][23]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a weak downward trend, with high supply and inventory. It is expected to trade at the bottom, and short - term traders can consider going long on dips or selling out - of - the money put options [24][25][26]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback at high prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory changes [26][27][28]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to trade in a narrow range at a high level. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [29][30][31]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are at a high level and volatile. Export demand has tightened the spot market. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC inflection point and changes in refined zinc inventories [31][32][35]. - **Tin**: The fundamental outlook is strong, and prices are expected to remain strong. Existing long positions should be held, and additional long positions can be added on dips [35][37][38]. - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to macro - economic expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [38][39][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is expected to recover through oscillations. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production cuts and raw material price changes [41][42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is expected to trade in a wide range. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44][45][48]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to trade at a high level and may decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [49][50][51]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to trade at a low level and may decline slightly. If there are existing long positions, they can be held [52][53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are affected by falling raw material prices. A strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore is recommended [54][55][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to weaken. A strategy of shorting the 2605 contract on rallies is recommended [59][60]. - **Coke**: Coke prices are expected to decline. A bearish view is maintained, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is recommended [61][62][63]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic meal market is in a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report. The market is expected to be weak, but the basis may strengthen [64][65][68]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are showing signs of stabilization and rebound. The futures market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term [69][70]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. Short - term trading is advised [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a bearish situation, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly [74]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is at the bottom and trading sideways, and the domestic cotton price is expected to trade within a range [76][77]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be weak but with limited downside potential [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are expected to trade sideways, and soybean oil prices are expected to decline slightly [80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market is expected to trade in a low - level range, with limited upside potential [82]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are expected to remain stable with slow sales [83][84]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: PX prices are expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton in the short term, with a positive medium - term outlook [85][86]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to trade in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton in the short term. A TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread strategy is recommended [87][88][89]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber market is expected to see a compression of processing margins. A strategy similar to PTA is recommended [90]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips (PR)**: PR prices are expected to follow the cost trend, and processing margins are expected to be squeezed. A strategy of shorting processing margins is recommended [91][92]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [93][94]. - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term outlook for pure benzene is weak, and it may follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [95][96]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices are expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside potential is limited [97][99]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are expected to trade in the range of 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton [100]. - **PP**: The 01 contract of PP is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [101]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short term. A strategy of reducing 05MTO positions is recommended [101]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to decline. Short positions can be held [103][104]. - **PVC**: PVC prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [105]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices are expected to decline. Short positions can be held [106][107]. - **Glass**: Glass prices are expected to be bearish [106][108]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [108][109][110]. - **Synthetic Rubber (BR)**: BR prices are expected to face resistance at the upper level. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [111][112].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report presents the latest data on stock index futures spreads, including spot-futures spreads, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety ratios, along with their changes from the previous day and historical quantiles [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: IF spot - futures spread is - 10.14, up 5.83 from the previous day; IH is - 4.61, up 1.53; IC is - 14.64, up 14.97; IM is - 22.69, up 17.62 [1]. - **Inter - term Spreads**: There are various inter - term spreads for different contracts (e.g., IF, IH, IC, IM), showing different changes and historical quantiles. For example, IF's next - month minus current - month spread is - 17.40, up 1.00 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50 are presented, with their changes and historical quantiles. For instance, CSI 500/CSI 300 is 1.5482, up 0.0058 [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report provides data on treasury bond futures spreads, including basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads, along with their changes and historical percentiles since listing [3]. Summary by Directory - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.55551, down 0.0338; TF is 1.8272, down 0.1070; T is 1.3894, up 0.0905; TL is 1.7177, down 0.1261 [3]. - **Inter - term Spreads**: Different inter - term spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL are given, with corresponding changes and historical percentiles. For example, TS's current - quarter minus next - quarter spread is 0.0200, down 0.0340 [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T are presented, showing their changes and historical percentiles. For instance, TS - TF is - 3.3370, down 0.1100 [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report shows the latest prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions, along with their changes [5]. Summary by Directory - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2602 contract is 961.04 yuan/g, up 0.80%; AG2602 is 13687 yuan/kg, up 1.96% [5]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold is 4227.70, down 0.24%; COMEX silver is 58.80, up 2.21% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 4197.41, down 0.25%; London silver is 58.29, up 2.10% [5]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold is - 5.04, down 0.06; silver TD - Shanghai silver is - 48, down 49 [5]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 71.90, down 2.40%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 70.22, down 1.14% [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.14%, up 0.7%; US dollar index is 98.98, down 0.08% [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 91299 kg, up 0.47%; COMEX gold inventory is 36310675, up 0.17% [5]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report offers data on container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, including changes in shipping rates, capacity supply, and overseas economic indicators [7]. Summary by Directory - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) is 1483.65 points, down 9.50%; SCFIS (US West route) is 1948.77, up 75.91% [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 (main contract) is 1609.9, up 4.93%; basis (main contract) is - 126.3, down 149.75% [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container capacity supply is 3351.85 million TEU, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate is 49.08%, up 14.75% [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong throughout the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider buying on dips. Continuously monitor macroeconomic changes and supply - side dynamics [1] Nickel - The nickel market is temporarily stable. After the price valuation is restored, the upward driving force is weak. The decline of the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price and the accelerating inventory accumulation in China restrict the upside space of prices. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is temporarily stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season and the inventory reduction is difficult. In the short - term, the low valuation and improved market sentiment will lead to a certain price recovery, but the driving force is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800. Follow the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron transactions [5] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a weak short - term outlook. Although the fundamentals support prices in the short - term, there are limited new positive factors. Facing the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand, the upward driving force may gradually weaken. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 [7] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The price is mainly expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is likely to experience high - level fluctuations. Given the weak demand, the spot price has limited upward momentum, and the futures price is more likely to decline and converge with the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see, and hold existing short positions if any [11] Zinc - In the zinc market, the downward trend of TC eases the supply pressure, and the short - term price has limited downside space. The export of refined zinc tightens the spot market and boosts the domestic zinc price. In the short - term, the Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract reference range is 22,500 - 23,500 [13] Copper - In the copper market, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives the price up rapidly in the short - term, with increased price volatility. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price center. The main contract should focus on the support level of 90,000 - 91,000 [15] Alumina - The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation. The main contract reference range is lowered to 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton. The key to a rebound lies in the actual production cuts of enterprises and the inflection point of inventory [17] Aluminum - In the aluminum market, supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. However, high prices may suppress terminal consumption, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the price peaks. The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,700 - 22,500 yuan/ton next week. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic inventory reduction [17] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The strong cost support limits the downside space of the ADC12 price, while high inventory and high prices restrict the upside. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18] Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 314,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%; SMM 1 tin premium dropped to 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75% [1] - **Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss was 16,618.50 yuan/ton, a reduction of 4.56% [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.54% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [1] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96% to 6,865 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.39% to 8,012 tons [1] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% [3] - **Electrowinning Nickel Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowinning nickel increased to 111,026 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.19% [3] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped to 27,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts rose to - 160 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons, and refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9,741 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% to 42,508 tons [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [5] - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5%, CIF) remained unchanged at 57 US dollars/wet ton [5] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts rose to - 90 yuan/ton [5] - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel output decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [5] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 93,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% [7] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to - 80 yuan/ton [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95,350 tons, and demand increased by 5.11% to 133,451 tons [7] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton [9] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 210% [9] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.82% to 12.38 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.45% to 55.80 million tons [9] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [11] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price dropped to 55,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon output increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons, and monthly polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.23% to 21.30 GW [11] Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 23,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% [13] - **Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The import loss increased to 4,879 yuan/ton [13] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts rose to - 40 yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the galvanizing start - up rate increased to 58.20% [13] - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region social zinc ingot inventory decreased by 5.27% to 14.03 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 1.93% to 5.5 million tons [13] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 91,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% [15] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The refined - scrap price difference rose to 5,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.14% [15] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts dropped to - 60 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [15] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 8.41% to 15.89 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% to 8.89 million tons [15] Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum rose to 22,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% [17] - **Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased to 1,753 yuan/ton [17] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts dropped to - 15 yuan/ton [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [17] - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 59.60 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.49% to 52.8 million tons [17] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,700 yuan/ton [18] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum rose to 1,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.72% [18] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts rose to - 50 yuan/ton [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 6.93% to 59.71% [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [18]