知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月13日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3110 | -20 | 128 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | 238 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2967 | 2989 | -22 | 123 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2968 | 2991 | -23 | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2962 | 2985 | -23 | 128 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3180 | 3200 | -20 | 101 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3 ...

1. Report Date - The report is dated June 13, 2025 [4] 2. Data Sources - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Research Institute of GF Futures [5] 3. Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: The basis is 262, the basis rate is 5.07%, and the historical quantile is 87.10%. The spot price is 5428, and the futures price is 5166 [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: The basis is 244, the basis rate is 4.50%, and the historical quantile is 62.80%. The spot price is 5670, and the futures price is 5426 [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The basis is 122, the basis rate is 4.11%, and the historical quantile is 55.70%. The spot price is 3090, and the futures price is 2968 [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The basis is 100, the basis rate is 3.25%, and the historical quantile is 56.30%. The spot price is 3180, and the futures price is 3080 [1] - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: The basis is 29, the basis rate is 7.79%, and the historical quantile is 45.10%. The spot price is 759, and the futures price is 704 [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: The basis is 28, the basis rate is 2.16%, and the historical quantile is 60.09%. The spot price is 1357, and the futures price is 1329 [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: The basis is 61, the basis rate is 8.02%, and the historical quantile is 38.00%. The spot price is 828, and the futures price is 767 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2507)**: The basis is 465, the basis rate is 0.59%, and the historical quantile is 81.45%. The spot price is 78610, and the futures price is 79075 [1] - **Aluminum (AL2507)**: The basis is 255, the basis rate is 1.25%, and the historical quantile is 92.29%. The spot price is 20395, and the futures price is 20650 [1] - **Alumina (AO2509)**: The basis is 365, the basis rate is 12.61%, and the historical quantile is 89.42%. The spot price is 3260, and the futures price is 2895 [1] - **Zinc (ZN2507)**: The basis is 155, the basis rate is 0.70%, and the historical quantile is 69.37%. The spot price is 22240, and the futures price is 22085 [1] - **Tin (SN2507)**: The basis is 150, the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 51.45%. The spot price is 265300, and the futures price is 265150 [1] - **Nickel (NI2507)**: The basis is 1000, the basis rate is 0.83%, and the historical quantile is 82.29%. The spot price is 121000, and the futures price is 120000 [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2508)**: The basis is 385, the basis rate is 3.06%, and the historical quantile is 78.75%. The spot price is 12970, and the futures price is 12585 [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2507)**: The basis is 210, the basis rate is 0.35%, and the historical quantile is 49.55%. The spot price is 60650, and the futures price is 60440 [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2507)**: The basis is - 695, the basis rate is - 9.32%, and the historical quantile is 48.48%. The spot price is 7455, and the futures price is 8150 [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2508)**: The basis is - 4.8, the basis rate is - 0.61%, and the historical quantile is 5.00%. The spot price is 785.2, and the futures price is 780.4 [1] - **Silver (AG2508)**: The basis is - 49, the basis rate is - 0.56%, and the historical quantile is 6.10%. The spot price is 8819, and the futures price is 8770 [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The basis is - 219, the basis rate is - 7.18%, and the historical quantile is 0.10%. The spot price is 2830, and the futures price is 3049 [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: The basis is 182, the basis rate is 2.37%, and the historical quantile is 23.70%. The spot price is 7870, and the futures price is 7688 [1] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: The basis is 330, the basis rate is 4.12%, and the historical quantile is 64.10%. The spot price is 8340, and the futures price is 8010 [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: The basis is - 134, the basis rate is - 5.01%, and the historical quantile is 10.30%. The spot price is 2540, and the futures price is 2674 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: The basis is 172, the basis rate is 1.87%, and the historical quantile is 56.40%. The spot price is 9350, and the futures price is 9178 [1] - **Corn (C2507)**: The basis is 18, the basis rate is 0.76%, and the historical quantile is 57.20%. The spot price is 2390, and the futures price is 2372 [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2507)**: The basis is - 10, the basis rate is - 0.37%, and the historical quantile is 9.60%. The spot price is 2710, and the futures price is 2700 [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: The basis is 300, the basis rate is 2.18%, and the historical quantile is 49.10%. The spot price is 14050, and the futures price is 13750 [1] - **Eggs (JD2508)**: The basis is - 959, the basis rate is - 27.49%, and the historical quantile is 0.10%. The spot price is 2530, and the futures price is 3489 [1] - **Cotton (CF509)**: The basis is 1272, the basis rate is 9.41%, and the historical quantile is 88.30%. The spot price is 14792, and the futures price is 13520 [1] - **Sugar (SR509)**: The basis is 483, the basis rate is 8.55%, and the historical quantile is 85.70%. The spot price is 6130, and the futures price is 5647 [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: The basis is 1024, the basis rate is 13.52%, and the historical quantile is 72.50%. The spot price is 8600, and the futures price is 7576 [1] - **Red Dates (CJ509)**: The basis is - 615, the basis rate is - 6.90%, and the historical quantile is 68.90%. The spot price is 8915, and the futures price is 8300 [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: The basis is 172.7, the basis rate is 2.64%, and the historical quantile is 77.80%. The spot price is 6708.7, and the futures price is 6536 [1] - **PTA (TA509)**: The basis is 230, the basis rate is 4.98%, and the historical quantile is 83.40%. The spot price is 4850, and the futures price is 4620 [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: The basis is 136, the basis rate is 3.21%, and the historical quantile is 92.80%. The spot price is 4370, and the futures price is 4234 [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF507)**: The basis is 148, the basis rate is 2.33%, and the historical quantile is 78.30%. The spot price is 6510, and the futures price is 6362 [1] - **Styrene (EB2507)**: The basis is 407, the basis rate is 5.54%, and the historical quantile is 84.80%. The spot price is 7760, and the futures price is 7353 [1] - **Methanol (MA509)**: The basis is 92, the basis rate is 4.02%, and the historical quantile is 74.20%. The spot price is 2382, and the futures price is 2290 [1] - **Urea (UR509)**: The basis is 94, the basis rate is 5.71%, and the historical quantile is 40.60%. The spot price is 1740, and the futures price is 1646 [1] - **LLDPE (L2509)**: The basis is 58, the basis rate is 0.81%, and the historical quantile is 34.20%. The spot price is 7175, and the futures price is 7117 [1] - **PP (PP2509)**: The basis is 161, the basis rate is 2.31%, and the historical quantile is 62.20%. The spot price is 7130, and the futures price is 6969 [1] - **PVC (V2509)**: The basis is - 106, the basis rate is - 2.20%, and the historical quantile is 51.60%. The spot price is 4826, and the futures price is 4720 [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: The basis is 417.8, the basis rate is 18.16%, and the historical quantile is 87.50%. The spot price is 2718.8, and the futures price is 2301 [1] - **LPG (PG2507)**: The basis is 457, the basis rate is 11.04%, and the historical quantile is 63.60%. The spot price is 4598, and the futures price is 4141 [1] - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: The basis is 193, the basis rate is 5.47%, and the historical quantile is 82.90%. The spot price is 3720, and the futures price is 3527 [1] - **BR (BR2507)**: The basis is 565, the basis rate is 5.12%, and the historical quantile is 82.40%. The spot price is 11600, and the futures price is 11035 [1] - **Glass (FG509)**: The basis is 981, the basis rate is 4.94%, and the historical quantile is 80.67%. The spot price is 1032, and the futures price is 981 [1] - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: The basis is 45, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile is 44.74%. The spot price is 1220, and the futures price is 1175 [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: The basis is 265, the basis rate is 1.91%, and the historical quantile is 99.58%. The spot price is 13850, and the futures price is 13585 [1] Financial Futures - **CSI 300 Index Futures (IF2506)**: The basis is - 8.6, the basis rate is - 0.22%, and the historical quantile is 38.10%. The spot price is 3892.2, and the futures price is 3883.6 [1] - **SSE 50 Index Futures (IH2506)**: The basis is - 9.1, the basis rate is - 0.34%, and the historical quantile is 24.60%. The spot price is 2691.3, and the futures price is 2682.2 [1] - **CSI 500 Index Futures (IC2506)**: The basis is - 19.9, the basis rate is - 0.34%, and the historical quantile is 53.90%. The spot price is 5799.9, and the futures price is 5780 [1] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM2506)**: The basis is - 35.4, the basis rate is - 0.58%, and the historical quantile is 36.80%. The spot price is 6192.2, and the futures price is 6156.8 [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TS2509)**: The basis is - 0.06, the basis rate is - 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 12.30%. The spot price is 102.44, and the futures price is 100.29 [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TF2509)**: The basis is - 0.01, the basis rate is - 0.01%, and the historical quantile is 25.50%. The spot price is 101.05, and the futures price is 106.14 [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T2509)**: The basis is 0.21, the basis rate is 0.19%, and the historical quantile is 42.00%. The spot price is 109, and the futures price is 107.64 [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL2509)**: The basis is 0.4, the basis rate is 0.33%, and the historical quantile is 57.10%. The spot price is 136.28, and the futures price is 120.47 [1]

交产业期规则目报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 色素吉明 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13850 | 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | ટ્ટર | -140 | 405 | 289.29% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13600 | 13850 | -250 | -1.81% | | | 非标价差 | 15 | -40 | રેર | 137.50% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.55 | 46.65 | -0.10 | -0.21% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.50 | 0.25 | 0.44% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | ...

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| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2055年6月13日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | F期现价差 | -8.60 | 7.23 | 38.10% | 38.1096 | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -9.08 | 24.60% | 0.66 | 27.00% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -19.93 | 11.81 | 59.40% | 53.90% | IM期现价差 | 7.09 | -35.42 | 90.00% | 34.90% | | 次月-当月 | -42.00 | -2.60 | 0.40% | 6.40% | 李月-当月 | -7 ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

聚酯产业链日报 2025年6月13日 Gasoil月差结构(美元/吨) 50 15 40 10 30 20 5 10 0 0 -5 -10 -20 -10 -30 -15 707505 20506 20250 202505 7075/06 nsson 202505 - M1-M3 - - M1-M6 - 41-M2 MI-M6 M1-M9 M1-M2 - - M1-M9 M1-M3 321裂解价差(美元/桶) 532裂解价差 (美元/桶) 70.00 70.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 000 0.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 - 2021 - -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, and analyzes the changes in total positions, main - contract positions, and the positions of the top 20 long and short seats for each type of futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 15,578 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 12,832 lots [3]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,709 lots. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 455 lots, while Haitong Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 3,060 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,979 lots. CICC Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 1,186 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 3,658 lots [6]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 1,138 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 1,641 lots [9]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 8,204 lots. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 439 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 746 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,143 lots. CICC Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 553 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 941 lots [11]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 2,651 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 5,216 lots [15]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,438 lots. Huatai Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 318 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 939 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,911 lots. CICC Wealth had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 441 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,788 lots [17]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IM variety increased by 2,007 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 1,939 lots [22]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,872 lots. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 1,133 lots, while Everbright Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 550 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 57,160 lots. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 947 lots, while Huatai Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 535 lots [25].

库存:主要港口库存 (周度) 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 期货和现货价格 品种 6月12日 6月11日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 原木2507 765.0 0.0 765.0 0.00% 原木2509 783.5 784.5 -1.0 -0.13% -2.0 -0.25% 原木2511 788.0 790.0 7-9价差 -18.5 -19.5 1.0 9-11价差 -4.5 -5.5 1.0 2.0 7-11价差 -25.0 -23.0 07合约基差 -25.0 -10.0 -15.0 09合约基差 -43.5 -34.5 -9.0 元/立方米 11合约基差 -40.0 -8.0 -48.0 -10 日照港3.9A小辐射松 720.0 -1.39% 710.0 日照港3.9A中辐射松 740 750 -10 -1.33% 日照港3.9A大辐射松 830 0 0.00% 830 -1.35% 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 730 -10 740 -1.30% 太仓港 4A 中辐射松 760 770 -10 太仓港 4A 大辐射松 0 0.00% 800 800 日照港云杉11.8 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has reached a framework consensus, but there is no incremental information. The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. The increase in US inflation is less than expected, supporting the Fed to cut interest rates earlier, and the Middle East geopolitical tensions drive up the price of gold. The container shipping index is in a shock consolidation. The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation. The coking coal and coke market expectations are improving. The prices of various energy - chemical and agricultural products show different trends [2] Summary by Variety Financial - **Stock Index**: The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. In the short - term, it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. If there is no sudden change in the trade negotiation this week, Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate strongly. Currently, 1.6% is the downward resistance level of the 10 - year bond interest rate [2] - **Precious Metal**: Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. Do the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value. Consider going long on the main contract on dips. Be cautious about the flow of speculative funds in silver and the "killing decline" caused by long - position profit - taking [2] Black - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on finished products and short on raw materials [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2] - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the coal mine start - up has declined from a high level, and the spot has signs of stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on JM2509 on dips [2] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. The futures price has a rebound expectation. It is recommended to go long on J2509 on dips [2] - **Silicon Iron**: It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure still exists. It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The domestic spot trading has weakened, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract reference range is 77000 - 80000 [2] - **Zinc**: The mine - end resumption of production provides incremental supply, and the zinc price oscillates weakly [2] - **Nickel**: The afternoon sentiment improved, and the price rose slightly. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: After the price limit was partially restored, the price turned red, but the fundamental contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract reference range is 12400 - 13000 [2] - **Tin**: Due to the slow recovery of supply and the warming of macro - sentiment, the tin price continues to rise. It is recommended to adopt a short - term long - bias strategy [2] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are rising. The short - term oil price is likely to continue the strong - bias oscillation trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of monthly spread expansion [2] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has not improved. The downward pressure on the price remains. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1620 - 1640. Consider the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [2] - **PX**: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand situation is good. It has support at 6400 - 6500 in the short - term. Do short - term long operations; mainly do short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2] - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. It is in a stalemate oscillation. Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term; mainly do reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2] - **Short - fiber**: Under the expectation of factory production cuts, the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; expand the processing fee on the PF disk when it is low [2] - **Bottle Chip**: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle chips, and the processing fee is bottom - seeking. It follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA. The processing fee on the main PF disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2] - **Ethanol**: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. Oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 for EG09 in the short - term; pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 on dips [2] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The short - term raw materials and benzene ethylene destocking support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term contradiction. Wait and see in the short - term, and consider high - short operations in the medium - term when there is a raw material resonance opportunity [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand expectation is not good, the spot price has回调, and the near - month support is insufficient. Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage. Wait and see for unilateral operations [2] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and the macro - disturbance has increased. The price is in a low - level consolidation. Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a high - short strategy for medium - and long - term participation [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2] - **LLDPE**: The spot price and basis change little, and the trading volume is moderate [2] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Oscillate weakly and go short on rallies [2] - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it oscillates [2] Agricultural - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: During the Sino - US trade negotiation, the price runs strongly [2] - **Pig**: The demand is weak due to the hot weather, but the rising feed price boosts the price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2] - **Corn**: The upward momentum weakens, and it oscillates at a high level. Oscillate around 2380 in the short - term [2] - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the concern about production, it falls inertia - ally. It may test the support at 7800 in the short - term [2] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. Do short - selling on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. Do short - selling on rebounds [2] - **Egg**: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Do short - selling on the rebound of the 07 contract and hold the short position [2] - **Apple**: The price in the sales area is stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7500 [2] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short - term [2] - **Peanut**: The market price oscillates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The over - supply logic continues. Maintain the high - short strategy on rebounds. Hold the high - level short position and do the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: Affected by the cold - repair news, the price fluctuates repeatedly. Wait and see in the short - term [2] - **Rubber**: The driving force is limited, and the rubber price oscillates. Adopt a high - short strategy when it rebounds above 14000 [2] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rises, and the futures - spot price gradually converges. The polysilicon futures price stabilizes and rebounds. Hold the short position cautiously or close the position first [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the news, the price rises, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. Observe the performance around 62,000 first [2]