Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Information - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads on November 25, 2025 [1]. Key Points - **Price Spreads**: The current - spot price spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 3.29, -41.37, 6.04, and -61.21 respectively, with changes of -6.16, 54.00%, 54.00%, and 27.31 [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF is -15.80, with a change of 37.00 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as IC/IF are 1.5394, with a change of 0.0106 [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Information - The report shows the IRR, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures on November 25, 2025, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Key Points - **IRR and Basis**: The IRR and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented, such as the TS basis being -0.0835 with a change of -0.0869 and a 32.60% percentile [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For TS, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is -0.0120, with a change of -0.0160 and a 19.10% percentile [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF are -0.1170 [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Information - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on November 25, 2025 [3]. Key Points - **Prices**: Domestic AU2602 and AG2602 contracts closed at 930.32 and 11808 respectively, with increases of 3.38 and 128 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is -4.57, with a change of -0.31 and a 10.80% one - year historical quantile [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 90426 kg, while silver inventory increased by 13028 to 532299 [3]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Information - The report includes container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on November 25, 2025 [5]. Key Points - **Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) index is 1639.37, up 281.7 or 20.75% from November 17 [5]. - **Futures Prices**: The EC2602 (main contract) is 1568.6, up 12.5 or 0.80% from November 21 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3343.24 million TEU, with a negligible change [5].

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月25日 | | | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | WWE | 削值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3220 | 20 | 151 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | 121 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3290 | 20 | 221 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3118 | 3098 | 20 | 122 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3167 | 3142 | ડેરે | 73 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3089 | 3057 | 32 | 151 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3270 | 20 | -2 | 7G/ 中 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3200 | 20 | -15 | | | 热卷现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, and Dalian palm oil futures are likely to continue to weaken. [1] - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a rebound after over - selling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high import costs but has a pattern of sufficient supply and weak demand. [1] Meal - U.S. soybeans face supply - demand pressure, and South American new - crop soybeans have good planting progress, so the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate widely. [2] Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures market is strong, but subsequent selling pressure may limit the gains. [5] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held. [10] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern this week. [13] Cotton - Globally, the cotton supply is loose. Domestically, cotton prices may oscillate in a range in the short - term. [14] Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. [17] Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with November 21, soybean oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan, and the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. Palm oil's spot price in Guangdong decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan, and the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. Rapeseed oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan, and the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan. [1] Meal - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, soybean meal's spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, the futures price (M2601) decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. Rapeseed meal's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan, and the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan. [2] Corn - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan, the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. [5] Live Pigs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan to - 525 yuan. The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 11550 yuan. [10] Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan, the Nanning spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5450 yuan, and the Nanning basis decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan. [13] Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan to - 50 yuan, and the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 3 yuan to 14574 yuan. [14] Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the price of the egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty, and the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500KG. [17]

聚烯烃周报 广发期货有限公司 研究所 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 2025年11月22日 张晓珍 从业资格：F0288167 投资咨询资格：Z0003135 PE周度 核心变化与策略 ◼ 本周聚乙烯市场供需双弱，价格震荡下跌，下游刚需拿货，上游库存累积较多 供应端 1. 国产：本周聚乙烯产量为67.03万吨（-0.35万吨） 产能利用率为82.71%（-0.43%）；预计下期产量预计68.29万吨（+1.26万吨）。本期产量因新增万华化学、 吉林石化、中英石化等装置检修而减少；下期因中英石化、镇海炼化、中天合创等装置计划重启而增加。 2. 新装置情况：埃肯森美孚LD50万吨临停。 3. 进口：外商年底最后一轮报盘，外商报盘行为稍有放缓，中东资源船期延后，美国库存压力减轻，报价减少，市场观望情绪浓厚。 需求端 1. 下游开工：PE下游各行业整体开工率在44.69%（+0.20%） 2. 棚膜需求正由北向南转移，部分企业仍处于生产旺季，但受需求减弱影响，订单以短期小单为主；地膜市场已进入需求淡季。包装膜市场交易环境改善有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be loose with new capacity and restarted plants, and the demand support is limited due to some downstream loss - making products cutting production. The cost - end support is weak, and the rebound space is restricted, with a possible short - term adjustment under the drag of oil prices [5][8]. - For styrene, the supply is limited with some plants increasing load and some under maintenance. The demand support is limited due to high inventory and profit pressure of some downstream products. Although the short - term supply - demand expectation improves, the rebound space is restricted due to profit repair, weakening demand expectation, and weak cost - end support [9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Cost - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. With more negative factors in the crude oil market recently, such as the US promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement negotiation and the increasing uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation next month, oil prices are under pressure. Short - term Brent crude oil is concerned about the $60/barrel support, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical dynamics [4]. Supply and Demand - Supply: There are plant restarts and new capacity included recently. Although some plants reduced their loads, the supply remains loose. The output of petroleum benzene this cycle is 44.67 tons (- 0.76 tons), and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67% (- 1.31%). The benzene hydrogenation plant operating rate is 57.75% (+ 3.2%), with an output of 7.58 tons (+ 0.42 tons) [5]. - Demand: The downstream operating rates show mixed trends. The styrene operating rate is 68.95% (- 0.3%), the phenol operating rate is 79% (+ 11.4%), the caprolactam operating rate is 88.24% (+ 2.2%), and the aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.5%) [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, treat BZ2603 as short - biased on rallies. - Arbitrage: The EB03 - BZ03 spread is around 1122 (+ 28), and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. Valuation - Neutral to low. Due to the repeated speculation of gasoline - blending demand, the pure benzene price rebounded slightly, but the weak fundamental expectation and weak oil - price expectation limited the increase. The BZN has been repaired to some extent, expanding from 100 yuan/ton last week to around 112 yuan/ton [8]. 2025 Production Plan - Multiple enterprises in different provinces have pure benzene and its downstream production plans in 2025, including enterprises like Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil, etc. The planned new capacity of pure benzene is 128 tons/year, and the new capacity of downstream products is about 238 tons/year [13][14]. October - December 2025 Device Dynamics - Many plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance from October to December 2025, with a total planned shutdown capacity of 212 tons. The net supply of domestic pure benzene产业链 devices decreases by about 11.4 tons, and the net demand decreases by about 17.2 tons, showing inventory accumulation [16][17]. Styrene Supply - With the repair of industry profits, some plants increased their loads. Last week, the overall styrene output was 34.29 tons (- 0.15 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.95% (- 0.3%). This week, one plant in East China restarted, and one plant each in Northeast, East, and South China adjusted their loads, resulting in a slight output decrease [9]. Demand - The consumption of styrene by the three major downstream products is 26.69 tons (+ 0.9 tons). The capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS all increased. As of November 20, the EPS capacity utilization rate is 56.27% (month - on - month + 4.64%), the PS capacity utilization rate is 55.9% (month - on - month + 0.5%), and the ABS capacity utilization rate is 72.4% (month - on - month + 0.6%) [9][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: Treat EB01 as range - bound. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines for now [10]. Valuation - Neutral to low. The supply - demand situation of styrene has improved. Driven by overseas gasoline - blending speculation and exports, styrene first rose and then fell, and the industry cash flow has been slightly repaired. The non - integrated cash flow has rebounded from around - 106 yuan/ton last week to around 9 yuan/ton [11]. Import and Export - Under the expectation of overseas plant maintenance, styrene exports are expected to increase in November. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene in the past five years to a net exporter [63][67]. Inventory - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The downstream 3S high inventory reflects the large demand resistance in further transmission to the terminal and also restricts the increase of loads [68][86]. Downstream - The weekly operating rate of downstream products has generally increased slightly, but the downstream profits have been compressed, and the downstream inventory is at a relatively high level on a month - on - month basis [73][78][83]. Terminal - Domestic demand support is limited, as shown by the data of domestic and export sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of further loose monetary policy is not strong, and the bond market lacks short - term drivers [2]. - The money market was tight at the beginning of last week and then loosened. The weighted money interest rate increased marginally. Next week, there will be a large maturity of reverse repurchase in the open market, 90 billion yuan of MLF will mature, and government bond payments may reach 20 - 30 billion yuan. The central bank is likely to increase reverse repurchase and renew MLF in time, but the money interest rate may fluctuate at the end of the month [5]. - Overseas, the trading of the US interest - rate cut expectation has changed. The expectation of a December interest - rate cut has declined. After adjustment, there may still be trading opportunities [5]. - The bond market adjusted last week, especially the 30 - year variety. The short - term bond market is in a box - shock stage. The driving factors that may break the shock in the future include the implementation of the redemption fee new rule, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. Unilateral strategies suggest range operation, and short - position investors can speed up the position - shifting pace next week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract 2512 changed - 0.51% to 115.57, the 10 - year main contract 2512 changed 0.01% to 108.43, the 5 - year 2512 changed - 0.02% to 105.86, and the 2 - year 2512 changed 0.01% to 102.46 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Last week, the trading volume of each variety significantly recovered, and the progress of position - shifting and contract - changing accelerated. The open interest of each variety decreased. For example, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had 176,275 open interests, a change of - 3026 hands compared with last week [26]. - **Basis and Implied Spread**: As of November 21, the basis of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 were 0.14, 0.08, 0.02, 0.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0, - 0.03, 0.01, 0 compared with last week. The implied spreads were 0.33BP, 0.27BP, 0.89BP, 0.09BP respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.1BP, - 0.25BP, 0.58BP, 0.12BP compared with last week [30]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of TL, T, TF, TS contracts 2512 - 2603 were 0.2, 0.19, - 0.05, 0.05 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.03, - 0.04, - 0.05, - 0.01 compared with last week. The inter - period spreads are expected to narrow, and it is recommended that long - position investors shift positions earlier and short - position investors later [34]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The inter - period spreads of varieties within 10 years mostly narrowed last week, while the spreads between the 30 - year variety and the short - end widened, showing a differentiated feature [48]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **October PMI**: Slightly lower than expected. The manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decrease of 0.8 points month - on - month. The decline was slightly larger than the seasonal average. The construction industry PMI fell 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, but the new order and business activity expectation indexes rebounded. The service industry PMI rose 0.1 percentage points to 50.2% [52][60][64]. - **October Inflation Data**: Continued to improve, slightly higher than expected. CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.5 percentage points to 0.2%. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2% [72]. - **October Financial Data**: Weaker than expected. The new social financing scale was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The new loan scale was - 2.01 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 31.66 billion yuan [78]. - **October Export**: The year - on - year growth was - 1.1%, lower than the cumulative year - on - year of the first three quarters (6.1%) and the third - quarter year - on - year (6.6%). Exports to most regions slowed down, and the export of labor - intensive consumer goods declined [79][83]. - **October Industrial Added Value**: Declined. The month - on - month seasonally adjusted was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous value of 0.65%. The production of some products decreased, and the reasons may include the transfer of export decline, the limited impact of policy - based financial instruments on construction products, and the negative impact of "anti - involution" on new energy products [90][96]. - **October Consumption**: Most categories improved, but the growth rate of high - base durable goods declined. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased 4.0% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 3.2% [99]. - **October Fixed - Asset Investment**: Remained weak. The decline expanded, with the cumulative year - on - year changing from - 0.5% to - 1.7%, and the corresponding month - on - year was - 11.2% [111]. - **Consumption High - frequency Data**: Real - estate sales declined year - on - year, and automobile sales growth slowed down. Metro passenger volume and domestic flight numbers showed different trends [112]. - **Export High - frequency Data**: Although the export growth rate declined, it was resilient. The export container freight rate index rebounded in November, and the port throughput increased year - on - year [121][135]. 3.3. Policy - related Tracking - **15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions vs. 14th Five - Year Plan Suggestions**: The 15th Five - Year Plan pays more attention to total demand issues, emphasizes scientific and technological self - reliance, and has more specific goals in promoting consumption. It also has new requirements in industrial development, scientific and technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, system reform, opening - up, green development, and people's livelihood protection [145][146][147]. - **Recent Policy Meetings and Measures**: The State Council has made arrangements for the "two new" policies, and relevant departments have issued policies such as promoting urban high - quality development, increasing special bond issuance, and accelerating the investment of policy - based financial instruments [149]. - **Central Bank's Bond - trading Operations**: The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. The net investment of various monetary policy tools in the current period shows different situations [150][151]. - **Trade War Progress**: Since 2025, the trade war and tariff game have intensified. The United States has continuously increased tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has carried out counter - measures. There was a brief easing in May, but the US tariff policy has encountered domestic resistance [154][156].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply and demand of BR are not strongly supported, and the cost side is difficult to maintain an upward trend. It is expected that the upside of BR will face pressure. Specific strategies include maintaining a short-selling mindset for BR2601 near 10,800 and implementing a strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on BR2601 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory BR Weekly - **Market Overview**: The price of butadiene, the cost side, rebounded after falling to the lowest level of the year. Some buyers entered the market, and the short - term upward trend attracted some downstream "bottom - fishing" behavior. However, the decline of natural rubber and commodities in the second half of the week dragged down BR, causing it to rise first and then fall [5]. - **Cost Side - Supply**: Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its maintenance, while Zhenhua New Materials' butadiene rubber plant restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [5]. - **Cost Side - Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [6]. - **Cost Side - Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory changed slightly. As of November 19, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [7]. - **Cost Side - Valuation**: The production profit of butadiene rubber rebounded. The average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton. The average price difference between butadiene rubber and Thai mixed rubber was - 4,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 176 yuan/ton [9]. Butadiene - **Production**: In 2025, from January to October, the domestic butadiene production increased by 15.5% year - on - year. In the current week, the production was 115,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons (+1.76%) from the previous period. The increase was mainly due to the new production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical [10][14]. - **Price**: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward. After the price fell to the lowest level of the year, some buyers entered the market. The cost pressure of butadiene decreased slightly, and the profit of the C4 extraction process increased. In the Asian market, the price fell and then stabilized [20]. - **Import and Export**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene imports increased by 39.1% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 80.6% year - on - year [22]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of domestic butadiene increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. As of November 20, the port inventory was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous period [28]. Butadiene Rubber - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production increased by 27% year - on - year. Zhenhua New Materials' plant restarted, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [31][34]. - **Price**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose first and then fell, with a price range of 10,000 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The production profit rebounded, and the average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton [38]. - **Import and Export**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber imports increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and exports increased by 33.5% year - on - year [40]. - **Inventory**: The domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous period (+2.24%). As of November 19, the in - factory inventory was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [47]. Tires - **Production**: In October 2025, the production of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.16%. The production of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.48% and a year - on - year increase of 17.84%. The tire exports in October decreased by 8.2% year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased this week. As of November 20, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days and a year - on - year increase of 7.69 days. The average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.57 days [49]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [51]. Automobiles - **EU Market**: In September 2025, the sales of EU passenger cars increased by 10% year - on - year to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles increased, and the share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased [56]. - **Chinese Market - Overall**: In October 2025, the production and sales of Chinese automobiles increased by more than 10% year - on - year. The production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October, the production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4% [59]. - **Chinese Market - Segments**: In October, the production and sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle sales penetration rate reached 51.6% in October and 46.7% from January to October [63]. - **Chinese Market - Heavy Trucks**: In October 2025, the sales of heavy trucks exceeded 100,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 60%. The consecutive growth trend extended to "seven consecutive increases" [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspect: NFCSF estimates that India's total new - sugar production will be 35 million tons in the new season, with 3.5 million tons used for ethanol production. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, and the supply is in a loose pattern. The previous negative factors have been fully priced in, and the raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents per pound for some time [4]. - Domestic aspect: With the listing of new sugar in Guangxi, the market price is mainly based on the previously pre - sold basis sugar sources, with prices significantly lower than old sugar, leading to a weakening of futures prices. The futures price remains weak, and the basis sugar price drops, creating a weak market sentiment. Traders are more likely to wait and see, and procurement is mainly based on demand. The market is expected to remain in a weak and fluctuating pattern next week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - ICE raw sugar futures: The weakening of the Brazilian real put pressure on raw sugar prices. As the Brazilian harvest season is ending and the northern hemisphere's pressing progress is accelerating, the supply outlook of major producing countries in the 25/26 season is good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest has put pressure on sugar prices. The expected increase in the supply surplus and the weakening of energy prices, along with good weather in major producing areas, also affected the price [11]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures: The strong trend of raw sugar and lower - than - expected sugar production in Guangxi initially supported the price. Later, the loose overseas supply outlook in the 25/26 season led to a decline in raw sugar prices, increasing the expectation of domestic imports. After that, raw sugar stopped falling and stabilized, domestic negative factors were digested, and the overall bulk commodity atmosphere was strong. Finally, the weak trend of raw sugar and the suppression of beet warrants led to a price decline. The price approaching the sugar - making cost, lower - than - expected domestic sugar production increase, and faster clearance of old sugar stocks also influenced the price [14]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Analysis - **Brazil**: - In the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons (0.3%). The ATR of sugarcane was 158.78 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.54 kg/ton. Ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 240 million liters (1.17%). Sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (1.25%). The cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 318,000 tons (0.89%) [22]. - The sugar - making ratio in the first half of October was 48.24%, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84%. The current price of hydrous ethanol in the central - southern region of Brazil converted to sugar is 16.5 cents per pound, and the spot price of raw sugar is 14.8 cents per pound, with the price difference between sugar and ethanol narrowing [27]. - As of the week of November 12, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 69, down from 81 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.6571 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 402,700 tons (13.16%), including 2.3995 million tons of high - grade raw sugar (VHP). Brazil exported 1.5582 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 155,800 tons, a 13% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 178,400 tons in November last year [33]. - **India**: The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates that the net sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season will be 30.95 million tons. The total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) is expected to be 34.35 million tons, and after deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to reach 30.95 million tons [40]. - **Thailand**: In 2024, the price of sugarcane remained high, while the price of cassava was at a multi - year low, which may lead more cassava growers to switch to sugarcane cultivation. In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area in Thailand is expected to expand by about 3%. Institutions estimate that the sugarcane harvest in Thailand in the 2025/26 season will be about 105 - 110 million tons, a 14% - 19% increase compared to last year's 92.2 million tons. The remaining increase in production comes from the improvement of yield. With better rainfall in 2025 compared to 2024, Thailand's sugar production is expected to reach about 11.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10% [48]. - **Domestic situation**: - As of the end of September 2025, the total sugar production in the current sugar - making season in China was 11.162 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons (12%), including 9.597 million tons of cane sugar and 1.565 million tons of beet sugar. The cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 870,000 tons (9.1%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%. Among them, 8.94 million tons of cane sugar were sold, with a sales rate of 93.1%, and 1.54 million tons of beet sugar were sold, with a sales rate of 98.4% [53]. - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 473,700 tons (13.8%) [86]. - In the period from November 13 to November 20, the price in the Guangxi production area was maintained in the range of 5,430 - 5,500 yuan/ton, the price in the Yunnan production area was maintained in the range of 5,400 - 5,590 yuan/ton, the port price was about 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of processed sugar was about 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton [5].

鸡蛋期货周报 供应压力稍缓解，但需求一般 作者：刘珂 投资咨询资格证：Z0016336 联系方式：020-88818026 广发期货APP 微信公众号 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025/11/22 品种观点 | 品种 | 主要观点 供应方面：当前蛋鸡养殖亏损持续扩大，叠加老母鸡价格下行，加剧市场对 | 本周策略 | 上周策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 后市的悲观预期，养殖端出栏意愿明显增强； 从前期鸡苗销量推断，新开产 蛋鸡数量维持低位，致使中小码蛋供应呈现偏紧格局； 综合来看，在产蛋鸡 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 存栏量预计延续缓降态势， 但部分养殖户惜售心理，导致当前库存水平仍处 | | | | | 于相对高位。 | 低位震荡，关注前低附近 | 市场短期大跌空间有限， | | | 需求方面：当前商超及电商平台普遍采取低价补货策略，采购积极性有限， | | | | | 同时，随着气温持续下降，餐饮行业进入冬季传统淡季，需求支撑减弱， 食 | 支撑力度 | 2512，2601合约空单 | | | 品加工企业则因自身产品销售情况，采购 ...

| | | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月24日 | 股资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | F期现价差 | -25.21 | 0.54 | 36.80% | 18.00% | | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -9.45 | -3.76 | 27.40% | 22.40% | | | | IC期现价差 | -47.41 | 14.54 | 47.90% | 22.00% | | | | IM期现价差 | -49.50 | 12.20 | 95.0096 | 38.60% | | | | 次月-当月 | -52.80 | -34.00 | 0.40% | 4.60% | | | | 李月-当月 | -83.80 | -32.00 | 6.90% | 10.30% | | | | 远月-当月 | -131.00 | -34.00 ...