交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月27日 现货价格及基差 品种 5月26日 5月23日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14300 14700 -400 -2.72% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -100 165 -265 -160.61% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 14350 14400 -50 -0.35% 非标价差 -50 -135 85 62.96% 品种 5月26日 5月23日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 52.80 53.95 -1.15 -2.13% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.75 62.75 0.00 0.00% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12800 13500 -700 -5.19% 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13800 -700 -5.07% 13100 元/吨 13500 -400 原料：市场主流价：海南 13100 -2.96% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月26日 5月23日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 9-1价差 ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 3000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 总持仓下降 | 国君多空头各减仓 1000 手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓下降 | 国君空头减仓逾 3000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头减仓 4000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -13,830.0 -4,732.0 -7,539.0 -12,511.0 -15,518.0 -5,141.0 -7,072.0 -17,166.0 -20,000 -18,000 -16,000 -14,000 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,00 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 27 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market continues to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. The main demand, the photovoltaic industry chain, remains weak, but the organic silicon industry chain shows some signs of improvement. With expected supply growth, weak demand, declining raw material costs, and expected production increases, the fundamentals are bearish, and prices remain under pressure [1]. Polysilicon - Demand is weak, but prices have fallen to the cash - flow range of polysilicon production. The long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease, and spot prices are gradually stabilizing. The polysilicon industry's fundamentals have an expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are expected to improve, but the futures price may still be under pressure technically [2]. Natural Rubber - Supply is affected by the delayed Thai tapping season and increased rainfall disturbing the tapping work, resulting in low raw material output and high raw material prices. Demand is weak as tire factories' inventories continue to accumulate. The rubber price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, with an operating range of 14,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to sell high within the range [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Despite the potential negative impact of Lianyungang Alkali Industry's production, the current production loss due to maintenance is significant, and the market has strong maintenance expectations in June. The short - term inventory is likely to remain stable. In the long - term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance. It is recommended to track maintenance implementation in May - June, and consider short - term high - selling operations for far - month contracts and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - **Glass**: The spot market is weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The spot price has further declined this week. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor due to the upcoming summer rainy season. The glass price is expected to remain under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged from May 22. The basis of these varieties decreased, with the largest decline of - 4.55% for the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507 decreased by 50.00%, while the spreads of 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, and 2509 - 2510 increased by 25.00%, 16.67%, and 50.00% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, with Xinjiang's production dropping by 20.55%. Yunnan and Sichuan's production increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and Xinjiang's开工 rates decreased, while Yunnan's decreased slightly, and Sichuan's increased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while the industrial silicon export volume increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 6.95%, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.26%, Sichuan's decreased by 0.44%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.84%. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.41%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6.73% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged from May 22. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower material decreased slightly [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The price of PS2506 increased by 0.03%. The spread of PS2506 - PS2507 decreased by 88.62%, while other spreads remained unchanged [2]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly**: Silicon wafer production increased by 7.09%, and polysilicon production increased by 0.47%. - **Monthly**: In April, polysilicon production decreased by 0.73%, imports decreased by 69.49%, exports decreased by 37.06%, and net exports increased by 127.44%. Silicon wafer production increased by 14.95%, imports increased by 46.90%, exports increased by 7.13%, and net exports increased by 2.64%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 14.36% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00%, silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.17% [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 23, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 0.68%, the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 1.03%, and the basis of whole latex increased by 1750.00%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.50% [3]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.63%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.55%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.11% [3]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production decreased by 56.93%, Indonesia's increased by 5.92%, India's decreased by 28.38%, and China's production started from zero. The weekly tire factory operating rates decreased slightly. In April, domestic tire production decreased by 5.07%, and tire exports decreased by 7.87%. In March, natural rubber imports increased by 18.07%, and in April, imports of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 9.21%. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber changed slightly [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory increased by 0.73%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 38.02%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China decreased by 0.88%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased by 0.80% and 1.77% respectively [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased by 1.22% and 2.51% respectively [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.04%, and the weekly production decreased by 2.05%. The float glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged. The price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% [5]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.82%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [5]. Real Estate Data - The new - construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Consider the supply - side is gradually recovering and the demand outlook is pessimistic. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies for tin prices. Try short positions lightly in the range of 265,000 - 270,000 and focus on the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [1]. Copper - In the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, and the weak macro - expectation limits the upside space. The price will mainly fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to whether the strong - reality fundamentals continue after May and the US economic fundamentals, with the main reference range of 78,000 - 79,000 [2]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the mine - end growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, if tariff policies lead to insufficient terminal consumption, the center of zinc prices may move down. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, focus on the zinc ore production growth rate and downstream demand marginal changes, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory depletion and tight spot supply are the core supports for the futures price. The short - term support level is expected to be around 2,900 - 3,000. If the Guinea event further intensifies, the upside space is expected to be around 3,400 - 3,500. For aluminum, the current low inventory supports the price, but there is no macro - level super - expected positive factor to push up the price, and the demand - side off - season pressure limits the upside space. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a sideways shock, with the operating range of 19,500 - 21,000 [7]. Stainless Steel - After the digestion of the previous macro - sentiment, the trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The ore end supports the price to some extent, the raw material ferronickel price is weakly stable, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. Expect the price to fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 [9]. Nickel - After the digestion of the macro - sentiment, the trading returns to the fundamentals. The market sentiment is temporarily stable. The ore end is relatively firm, the ferronickel price is weakly stable, and the overseas inventory remains high while the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. Expect the price to fluctuate and adjust, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have no obvious changes. The upstream supply is still sufficient, the demand is generally stable, and the inventory is still high, which exerts pressure on the price. Expect the price to remain weak, with the short - term main reference range of 580,000 - 630,000, and mainly focus on upstream dynamics [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price remains unchanged at 265,400, SMM 1 tin premium drops 6.67% to 700, and LME 0 - 3 premium rises 3.57% to - 135 [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - Import loss increases 4.96% to - 9,130.99, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops to 8.13 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 rises 36.84% to - 120, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 drops 32% to 170 [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - April tin ore imports rise 18.48% to 9,861, SMM refined tin production in April drops 0.52% to 15,200, and Indonesia's refined tin exports in April drop 15.79% to 4,800 [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory rises 0.33% to 8,445, and social inventory rises 3.76% to 10,333 [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price drops 0.06% to 78,035, and SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium rises 30 to 165 [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 drops 430 to 0 [2]. Fundamental Data - April electrolytic copper production rises 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and April electrolytic copper imports drop 19.06% to 25 million tons [2]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rises 0.26% to 22,710, and the premium drops 5 [4]. Fundamental Data - April refined zinc production rises 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory drops 6.84% to 8.04 million tons [4]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rises 0.05% to 20,370, and the average price of alumina in Shandong rises 2.42% to 3,175 [7]. Fundamental Data - April alumina production drops 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and April electrolytic aluminum production drops 2.91% to 360.60 million tons [7]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 13,150, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rises 0.21% to 676 [9]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April rises 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) drops 5.48% to 53.10 million tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price drops 0.26% to 124,175, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rises 2.38% to 2,150 [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production rises 6.08% to 36,300, and refined nickel imports drop 68.84% to 8,164 [11]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remains unchanged at 63,050, and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price drops 0.34% to 64,720 [13]. Fundamental Data - April lithium carbonate production drops 6.65% to 73,810, and April lithium carbonate demand rises 3.02% to 89,627 [13].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年5月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 原田 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌幅 | 旅鉄 | | | | | | | | | 8170 | 8120 | 50 | 0.62% | 江苏一级 | 现价 | Y2509 | 7570 | 7586 | -0.21% | 期价 | -16 | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 600 | ୧୧ | 12.36% | 534 | 现货墓差报价 | 09 + 300 | 09+280 | 20 | 江苏5月 | - | | 15802 | 8.22% | 仓单 | 14602 | 1200 | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | 8600 | 0.58% | 广东24度 | 85 ...

广发期货研究所 化工组 金果实 从业资格：F3083706 投资咨询资格：Z0019144 氯碱周报 S H ：氧化铝采 买价提涨支撑， 盘 面反复 关 注 现货及仓单 V ： 近 端现货显 疲 弱 ， 驱动不足盘 面再度转跌 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 烧碱主要观点：短期看烧碱检修集中阶段供应压力有限，需求端，氧化铝伴随近期利润好转部分存复产预期，叠加新产线支撑需求。山东主流厂采买价上近期连续四次提涨， 当前已涨至800元/湿吨，支撑现货价格。且当前看仓单较少或反映当前供需面仍强，但非铝端压力增加以及烧碱成本下降后估值逐步走高形成风险。单边维持观望；6-9正套尝试。 PVC主要观点：PVC近期的反弹主要基于中美关税缓和带来的宏观刺激、BIS政策延期至6月下后出口维持积极以及PVC自身检修集中及库存同比压力有限的供需面支撑。但中长 线PVC在地产难见有效提振下仍表现出明显的过剩压力，而印度BIS及反倾销税始终作为潜在利空存在。且伴随期现反弹，本周现货市场反映偏淡，当前盘面已有震荡回落势头，中 线维持高空思路对待，09上方阻力位一线看5100附近。 周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe)**: The supply - demand contradiction of SiFe has been significantly alleviated, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen. In the short term, the demand side lacks support, but there is a need to be vigilant against supply - demand mismatch situations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate. The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5800, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5900 [4][8]. - **Silicon Manganese (SiMn)**: Affected by the news, the volatility of SiMn increased significantly in the last two trading days of this week. In the short term, there is still supply pressure, but there are more news disturbances. With the expectation that future hot metal production will remain at a high level, SiMn will generally maintain a bottom - range fluctuation, lacking the logical support for a trending upward movement. It is recommended to try short - selling at high levels, with the bottom support temporarily at around 5400. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5700 - 6000 [5][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe) Valuation - The main SiFe contract decreased by 3.37% this week, closing at 5512 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and among manufacturers and trading locations [8]. Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent SiFe enterprises was 30.42%, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous period. The daily output was 12,700 tons, a decrease of 665 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 88,900 tons [8][30]. Cost and Profit - The immediate production costs in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia were 5518 yuan/ton, 5708 yuan/ton, and 5469 yuan/ton respectively. The immediate profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were - 118 yuan/ton and - 119 yuan/ton respectively [8]. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable overall. The operating rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 41.51%, a 1.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily output was 155,300 tons, a 62,000 - ton increase from the previous period. The lanthanum coke inventory was 412,700 tons, a 98,000 - ton increase from the previous period, and the raw coal inventory was 1,220,500 tons, a 375,000 - ton increase from the previous period [8][51]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiFe in five major steel types was 20,700 tons, a 1.66% increase from the previous week. The non - steel demand, such as for magnesium metal, was stable, but the downstream demand was limited [8]. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of 60 independent SiFe enterprises was 75,100 tons, a 1.90% increase from the previous period [8]. Silicon Manganese (SiMn) Futures and Spot - The main SiMn contract decreased by 2.39% this week, closing at 5718 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading locations [113]. Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent SiMn enterprises was 34.18%, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The daily output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons, and the weekly output was 165,200 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [113][225]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5768 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi it was 6309 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 188 yuan/ton [113]. Manganese Ore Supply - The global manganese ore shipments recovered this week. The future arrivals of manganese ore will remain at a high level. The supply recovery of South32's Australian mine will further increase the global manganese ore supply, and the manganese ore price will still face pressure [5][113]. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of May 16, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.18 million tons, a 232,000 - ton increase from the previous period [113]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiMn in five major steel types was 126,590 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week. The daily hot metal output decreased by 11,700 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.44 percentage points, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.43 percentage points [113][246]. Inventory - As of May 22, the national SiMn inventory was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous period [113].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The expected increase in production by OPEC+ has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the center of gravity of the aromatic hydrocarbon system from the valuation side. The recent rebound of styrene was mainly driven by tariff relaxation and the strengthening of spot goods under low inventory. However, this week, the spot market has shown some weakness, with prices starting to fall. Fundamentally, the high inventory of styrene's downstream 3S products may indicate an unsmooth transmission to the end - market. Coupled with ongoing profit challenges and the lack of a significant increase in orders during the export rush, there is a negative feedback expectation for high - priced styrene in the future. Additionally, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene, a raw material, has not improved significantly. With the return of domestic maintenance and increased supply from South Korea, there is significant pressure to reduce inventory, and the price center of pure benzene may decline. Therefore, styrene is expected to be bearish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 for the near - term contract. In terms of arbitrage, opportunities for the widening of the EB - BZ spread can be explored [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies in different provinces have plans to put new capacity into production for pure benzene, its downstream products (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong plans to add 100 tons of pure benzene production capacity from 2024Q4 - 2025 using multiple processes [7]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many companies' pure benzene - related devices have planned maintenance or production stops during May - July 2025. As of now, it is estimated that the planned new capacity for pure benzene from May - July is 1.33 million tons/year, with about 400,000 tons/year of new downstream capacity. The planned shutdown of pure benzene involves 4.46 million tons/year of capacity, and the downstream shutdown capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. Overall, the net supply of pure benzene will decrease by about 239,000 tons, and the net demand will decrease by about 341,000 tons, resulting in inventory accumulation [9][10]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Spreads**: The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low, and various spreads such as the ethylene - naphtha spread, pure benzene - naphtha spread, etc., show different trends over time [16]. - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The price of pure benzene in East China and its international quotes show different trends. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level. Although there are more maintenance activities, high production and imports have led to inventory accumulation. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene's downstream has recently declined slightly, and except for styrene, the profits of other downstream products are still weak [21][27][32]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: The styrene spot price and its basis, monthly spreads, and registered warehouse receipts show different trends over time [54]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene's monthly and weekly production, operating rate, non - integrated and integrated profits, and the styrene - pure benzene spread are presented. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene to a net exporter, and it has maintained export performance from April - May [59][71]. - **Styrene Inventory**: The port inventory of styrene is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, while the factory inventory is accelerating inventory reduction but is still high compared to the same period [72]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) have high production capacity growth rates, which have intensified industry competition. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have changed. The estimated weekly consumption of styrene converted from 3S production has slightly decreased. The prices of 3S products have weakened, and their profits are under pressure. High production has led to relatively high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. In the terminal market, exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy incentives [77][80][90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The decline in asphalt production at major refineries combined with further improvement in demand makes short - term bullish oscillations more likely. The recent bullish oscillations in the asphalt market are mainly supported by the continuous improvement of the supply - demand situation. In the short term, the supply has significantly contracted, and the factory inventory has decreased, which further supports the spot price. The improvement in weather conditions has also led to an expectation of improved rigid demand for asphalt. Overall, the short - term market is likely to continue its bullish oscillations, but the upward and downward spaces are limited. The future key variables include refinery restart progress, the end time of the southern rainy season and the availability of project funds in the north, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - The strategy is to take a long - position approach on dips in the unilateral market and consider widening the asphalt crack spread after it retraces. The fluctuation range of BU is given as [3300, 3700] [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 9.4% to 52.9 million tons, mainly due to some refineries switching to producing residual oil or halting production. The capacity utilization rate dropped to 31.7% (a 3.3% decrease from the previous period). The import volume increased by 6.7% in April, with resources from Southeast Asia and South Korea arriving at ports in South and East China. The maintenance loss of equipment increased by 5.1% to 75.8 million tons, with refineries in the northwest, north, and Shandong regions undergoing concentrated maintenance [4]. - From January to December 2025, the asphalt supply shows fluctuations. The total supply in May is 234 million tons, with an 8.27% decrease from the previous month and a 14.82% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - According to different statistical calibers, the theoretical profits of asphalt production in various types of refineries this week have declined. Next week, asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate slightly, and the operating range of crude oil may move downward, with potential for improved asphalt production efficiency [69]. - As of May 22, 2025, the theoretical processing profit of Shandong local refineries' delayed coking units was 141.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.83 yuan/ton (+61.61%) and a year - on - year decrease of 165.01 yuan/ton (-53.89%) [70]. Demand - The continuous rainfall in the south has suppressed the rigid demand for asphalt, and road construction has been hindered, resulting in a week - on - week decline in demand in the south. In the north, due to tight project funds, the construction progress is slow, and only low - priced resources have achieved decent sales. The refinery's shipment volume increased by 10.9% week - on - week, but the demand side lacks continuous support [4]. - The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 43.5 million tons, a 10.9% increase from the previous period. The stable production of major refineries in the east and south regions, with shipments mainly by ship, has driven the increase in regional shipment volume. In Shandong, the shutdown of Lanqiao Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in shipment volume this week [83]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale of new local government special bonds nationwide reached 960.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 326.1 billion yuan (+51.4%). The issuance scale accounts for 21.8% of the annual special bond quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating that fiscal policy continues the characteristic of "front - loaded efforts" [90]. Inventory - The factory inventory decreased by 3.6%, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China as refineries fulfilled contract shipments. The social inventory increased by 0.9% due to the concentrated arrival of ships in East China and insufficient terminal consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. - The total domestic asphalt social inventory was 185.9 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from May 15. During the statistical period, the social inventory continued to decline, with significant inventory reduction in Shandong and East China [92]. Price Difference - In the Shandong region, the basis fluctuated widely during the week and finally dropped by 14 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. In the East China region, the basis weakened oscillatingly, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4 yuan. In the South China region, the basis stabilized weakly, and the weekly discount narrowed by 14 yuan. In the Southwest region, the basis rebounded in a V - shape, with a cumulative weekly slight decline of 4 yuan but still remaining at a high level [11]. - The M1 - M3 spread narrowed from 52 points to 50 points, and the M1 - M6 spread shrank from 251 points to 230 points, indicating a weakening of the forward discount structure. The M1 - M9 spread fluctuated within a range of 34 points (255 - 289) during the week [19]. - The spot prices of asphalt in North and South China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The reduction in the market circulation volume in some regions has supported the spot price of asphalt. Although the crude oil price continued to move within a range, the tight market circulation volume of asphalt in some regions recently has provided positive support for the domestic average asphalt price, which has continued to rise [27]. - The import spread of foreign - sourced asphalt further weakened [36].