Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increase, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and slight inventory accumulation under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weak demand except for agricultural film. The cost side has fluctuating crude oil and strong coal, and PDH profits continue to weaken [2]. Crude Oil - The US proposed a new plan to restart the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation, causing geopolitical premiums to decline and oil prices to fall. OPEC+ is continuously increasing production, and US crude oil production is at a new high, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern and significant pressure on oil prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to find support at $60 per barrel [3]. Natural Rubber - Supply: Domestic production areas are entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and rainfall in overseas areas keeps raw material prices high. However, the arrival of overseas ships is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on digesting channel inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The market is in an overall surplus situation. Supply is high, and downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is recommended to wait for rebounds to short [7]. - Glass: Recently, prices have been falling, and low prices have driven better sales. However, there are still production line restarts in the future, which will increase supply pressure. In the short term, there is some rigid demand support, but in the long term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand situation is under pressure. The main downstream, alumina, has reduced purchasing enthusiasm. Although there is some supply reduction in the East China region, the long - term supply - demand pressure remains large, and prices are expected to be weak [8]. - PVC: The spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply is still at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The export situation is not optimistic, and the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with prices expected to remain at the bottom [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, but supply remains high. Demand is weak, and although there are some supporting factors, the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - PTA: After the maintenance of some devices, the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively balanced in November and more relaxed from December to the first quarter. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply remains high, and overseas shipments will be concentrated in November, leading to inventory accumulation and a weak basis. It is under pressure above, and corresponding option and spread strategies are recommended [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price drive is limited, and processing fees are expected to be compressed [9]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply changes little, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal accumulation period. The processing fee will follow the raw material cost [9]. Methanol - In the inland market, production will continue to increase, and marginal devices are in a loss state. In the port market, Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, resulting in high inventory and weak prices. The core contradiction is high port inventory, and the "weak reality" logic will continue [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Although there are maintenance expectations for some devices, imports are expected to be high, and overall supply may be relatively loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is large, and the short - term BZ2603 contract is recommended to be observed [13]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation has improved, with export expectations and falling port inventory. However, profit recovery may lead to delayed maintenance and new device trials, and downstream EPS demand is expected to weaken, so the upside space is limited [13]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have different price changes, and there are also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01. Spot prices of PP and LLDPE in some regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased to varying degrees. PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 also show different trends [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices have declined, and there are also changes in spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent. Product oil prices and spreads have also changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of various natural rubber products have changed, and there are also changes in monthly spreads such as 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in September in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China has changed. Tire production, export, and import data in October have also changed, as well as开工率 data [5]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory have increased, while some出库 and入库 rates have changed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and basis has also changed [7]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate and weekly output have decreased slightly, and glass melting volume has remained stable [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory have increased, while soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory has decreased [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and there are also changes in spreads [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chlor - alkali开工率 and industry profits have changed, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC has also changed. Inventory has decreased to some extent [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have remained stable, and cash flows have changed [9]. - **PX - related**: PX prices and spreads have changed, and开工率 has decreased [9]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices, basis, and processing fees have changed, and开工率 has decreased slightly [9]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and开工率 has changed slightly [9]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices have changed, and basis and regional spreads have also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have decreased [10]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol have changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of pure benzene and related spreads have changed, and import profits have also changed [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and cash flows have also changed [13]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories have changed, and产业链开工率 has also changed [13].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross -品种 ratios on November 21, 2025 [1]. Key Points - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is - 2.66, the H futures - spot spread is 3.66, the IC futures - spot spread is - 61.95, and the IM futures - spot spread is - 76.81 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the spread between the next - month and the current - month contracts for different futures varieties, like - 18.80 for a certain spread [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 300 is 1.5470, and the ratio of IC to IF is 1.5421 [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - It shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and the percentile since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on November 21, 2025 [2]. Key Points - **Basis**: The basis of TS is 1.4600, TF is 1.3725, T is 1.4375, and TL is 1.1301 [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For example, the spread between the current - quarter and the next - quarter contracts for different treasury bond futures [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Such as the spread between TS and TF is - 3.4730 [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core View - The report provides the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on November 21, 2025 [3]. Key Points - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 932.56, and the COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4076.70 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is - 2.56, and the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 is - 20 [3]. - **Ratios**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver is 80.96 [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.10, and the US dollar index is 100.22 [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 90426 kilograms, and the position of SPDR gold ETF is 1039 [3]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core View - It offers information on container shipping indexes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on November 22, 2025 [5]. Key Points - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) is 1357.67, and the SCFI comprehensive index is 1495.10 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 (主力) contract is 1631.0, and the basis (主力) is - 273.3 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3342.31 million TEU, and the port on - time rate in Shanghai is 49.08% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 20, 2025, the total positions of IF and IC significantly increased, while those of IH slightly increased and IM slightly decreased [3][9][15][21]. - The top 20 seats of IF mainly added positions, those of IH had mixed position - adding and reducing, and for IC, Guojun added nearly 2,000 hands on both long and short positions, while for IM, CITIC reduced long positions and Haitong reduced short positions by over 1,000 hands each [3][9][15][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 20, the total position of the IF variety increased by 5,717 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 8,865 hands [3]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 41,959 hands. Haitong Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,818 hands, while Zheshang Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 473 hands [4]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 44,722 hands. Dongzheng Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 1,632 hands, while GF Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 73 hands [6]. IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 20, the total position of the IH variety increased by 2,538 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 3,075 hands [9]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 13,027 hands. CITIC Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 479 hands, while Haitong Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 230 hands [10]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 13,835 hands. Dongzheng Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 723 hands, while UBS Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 122 hands [11]. IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 20, the total position of the IC variety increased by 7,467 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 12,102 hands [15]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 38,974 hands. Guotai Junan Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 1,876 hands, while Huatai Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 225 hands [16]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 41,201 hands. Guotai Junan Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 2,025 hands, while Guotou Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 265 hands [18]. IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 20, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 2,194 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 4,785 hands [21]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 51,352 hands. Everbright Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 415 hands, while CITIC Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 1,745 hands [21]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 72,970 hands. Guotai Junan Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 403 hands, while Haitong Futures reduced the most, with an intraday decrease of 1,570 hands [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][5][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market showed a weakening trend with a decline in prices and a decrease in demand. It's recommended to take a bearish approach in trading [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile at a high level. It's advised to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Both the coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a bearish and volatile trend. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines, with reference ranges of 1600 - 1700 for coke and 1100 - 1200 for coking coal [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Prices of most steel products decreased, such as the 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar stopped falling and rebounded to 215 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billet and slab remained unchanged, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in most regions decreased, and the profit of rebar in some regions changed [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, but the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.6%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also decreased [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.7%, with rebar inventory down 2.8%, and hot - rolled coil inventory basically unchanged [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased [5] Supply - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 14.6%, but the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 17.2%. The monthly national import volume increased by 10.6% [5] Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 1.9%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The steel - linked coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased [8] Supply - The weekly coke output of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9%, and the daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The weekly output of raw coal and clean coal of sample coal mines increased [8] Demand - The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the coke output of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills changed [8] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports decreased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly [8] Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased, indicating a more unbalanced supply - demand relationship [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Instead, it offers investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index shows resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with short - term fluctuations and limited downside risks. [2] - The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield facing resistance around 1.8%. [2] - Precious metals are expected to find support at certain levels, with a suggestion to buy on dips. [2] - Different commodities in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors have different price trends and corresponding investment strategies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it is recommended to wait and see. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged. [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.9 - 116.7, and an interval operation strategy is recommended. [2] Precious Metals - **Gold**: It is expected to find support around $4000 (925 yuan). A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested. [2] - **Silver**: It follows the trend of gold and is expected to find support around $49 (11,800 yuan). A light - position trial long strategy on dips is recommended. [2] Black Commodities - **Steel**: The volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to increase, and the spread between them is expected to widen. Rebar and hot - rolled coil should respectively focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200. [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1100 - 1200. [2] - **Coke**: It is also viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1600 - 1700. [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 85,500 - 87,500. [2] - **Aluminum**: Different aluminum - related contracts have different expected price ranges. Some may have short - term downward space. [2] - **Zinc**: Supported by supply reduction expectations, with a reference range of 22,200 - 22,800, and long positions should be held. [2] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong, and long positions should be held. [2] Energy - Chemical Commodities - **PX**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [2] - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. A rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 is recommended. [2] - **Short - fiber**: Similar to PTA, with a focus on reducing processing fees on rallies. [2] - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand pattern in November remains loose, and it follows the cost - end trend. [2] - **Ethanol**: There is short - term rigid demand support, but supply is high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [2] - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] - **Styrene**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] - **LLDPE**: The price changes little, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **PP**: Due to unexpected maintenance, the downward space is limited, and short - position stop - profit is recommended. [2] - **Methanol**: The port market continues to weaken, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing MTO in the 05 contract. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and a bearish strategy is recommended. [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. [2] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by overseas raw materials, the price is rising, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to face pressure at the upper level, and a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with attention to the pressure around 10,800. [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000. [2] - **Pig**: There are signs of stabilization in the spot market, and a 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy should be held. [2] - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200. [2] - **Edible Oils**: The price is rising, and the P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. [2] - **Sugar**: Under the pressure of production increase, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Cotton**: With a global bumper harvest and weak domestic downstream trading, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Egg**: The supply is still loose, and short - position stop - profit should be gradually carried out on dips for the 2512 contract. [2] - **Apple**: It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short term. [2] - **Jujube**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 9000. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with most sectors expected to experience fluctuating trends in the short - term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices showed mixed trends with reduced trading volume. The pro - cyclical sectors supported the market, while TMT sectors declined. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spreads fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and consider bearish option bull spreads in case of a significant decline [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly rose. The bond market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term, and a range - bound operation strategy is recommended [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The Fed's October meeting minutes dampened the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, and the risk of Japanese government bond sales affected the precious metals market. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, market volatility may increase. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a double - selling strategy for gold out - of - the - money options [7][9] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined. The futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and copper prices are fluctuating. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the range of 85500 - 87500 [13][15][17] - **Alumina**: The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are adjusting downward after a previous rise. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up changes and inventory reduction [20][22] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market follows the adjustment of aluminum prices. The cost is strongly supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The short - term price is expected to be relatively strong [23][24] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is expected to decrease, and the spot trading has improved. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate, and the export of zinc may boost the domestic price [25][27][28] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the guidance of NVIDIA's quarterly report exceeded expectations, so the tin price is running strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [28][29][32] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is under macro - pressure, and the fundamental improvement is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [32][33][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has weak policy and macro - drive, and the supply - demand structure has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37][38] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong capital sentiment, and the price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be high - volatility intraday market conditions later [39][41][42] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to pay attention to the spot price support [43][44] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices or use hedging strategies [44][47] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market has a low demand expectation, and the difference between hot - rolled and rebar spreads is expanding. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to go long [47][48][50] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is showing a weak decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for restocking is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][60] - **Coke**: The coke market continues to decline. The fourth - round price increase has been fully implemented, but the supply and demand are under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [61][66][67] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to pay attention to the dynamics of state - reserved soybeans [68][70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Categories Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: For silicon - manganese (SM601), the futures price is 5870, the spot price is 5642, with a change of 150 and a rate of 4.89%, and a historical quantile of 63.10%. For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the futures price is 3280, with a change rate of 19.10% and a historical quantile of 64. Other ferrous metals like iron ore, coke, and coking coal also have their corresponding price, change, and quantile data [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper (CU2601) has a futures price of 86080, a spot price of 86115, with a historical quantile of 49.58%. Aluminum (AL2601) has a futures price of 21570, a spot price of 21550, with a historical quantile of 52.91%. Other non - ferrous metals such as zinc, tin, and nickel also have detailed price and quantile information [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512) has a futures price of 937.0, a spot price of 934.3, with a historical quantile of 26.40%. Silver (AG2602) has a futures price of 12150.0, a spot price of 12148.0, with a historical quantile of 89.80% [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans, the futures price of soybean meal (M2601) is 2980, and the spot price of common protein soybean meal in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 3022.0, with a historical quantile of 32.00%. For oils, the futures price of soybean oil (Y2601) is 8356.0, and the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 8560, with a historical quantile of 41.60%. Other agricultural products like palm oil, rapeseed meal, and corn also have relevant price and quantile data [1]. Energy and Chemicals - For petrochemicals, the futures price of paraxylene (PX601) is 6818.0, and the spot price of paraxylene at China's main port is 6870.0, with a historical quantile of 17.10%. For plastics, the futures price of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) (L2601) is 6833.0, and the spot price in Shandong is 6855.0, with a historical quantile of 28.90%. Other energy and chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and PVC also have their price and quantile details [1]. Financial Futures - For stock index futures, IF2512.CFE has a futures price of 4555.0, with a historical quantile of 32.30%. For bond futures, 2 - year bond (TS2512) has a futures price of 102.46, with a historical quantile of 23.20%. Other financial futures like 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds also have corresponding data [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of logs has been weak recently, with a downward adjustment. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support in terms of import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. There is an expectation of a downward adjustment in foreign quotes. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Price Changes**: On November 19, compared with November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 all declined, with decreases of 9.5 yuan (-1.21%), 2.5 yuan (-0.31%), and 3.5 yuan (-0.43%) respectively. The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 7.0, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 6.0. The basis of the 03 contract increased by 2.5, and the basis of the 01 contract increased by 9.5 [2]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 19 compared with November 18. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost Changes**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 19 was 7.111 yuan, a decrease of 0.002 yuan compared with November 18. The import theoretical cost was 810.73 yuan, a decrease of 0.26 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters (13.99%) compared with September. The number of ships arriving at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, an increase of 8 (17.39%) [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters (0.68%) compared with November 7. The inventory in Shandong was 195.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters (2.04%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.2 million cubic meters (1.46%) [2][3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Average Daily Outbound Volume**: As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters (-1%) compared with November 7. In Shandong, it was 3.67 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.12 million cubic meters (-3%), and in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.16 million cubic meters (7%) [3]. 3.4 Forecast of Arriving Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships (30%) compared with last week. The total arrival volume is about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters (48%) compared with last week [3]

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a weakening trend with falling prices and mixed production and inventory changes. The iron ore supply chain has a negative feedback basis, and it is not recommended to go long. For steel, with the decline in apparent demand and unsold inventory, a short - side attempt can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - **Threaded Steel**: Spot prices in different regions (East, North, South) are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0 - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Futures contract prices also decreased, with the 05 contract down 23 yuan, the 10 contract down 18 yuan, and the 01 contract down 20 yuan [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in different regions are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 - 10 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices decreased, with the 05 contract down 14 yuan, the 10 contract down 16 yuan, and the 01 contract down 9 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Steel billet price is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and slab price is 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel is 3254 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel is 3189 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Profit**: East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 77 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 147 yuan/ton (unchanged); East China threaded steel profit is - 127 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; South China threaded steel profit is 43 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Production - **Daily Average Hot - Metal Output**: It is 236.8 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% [1]. - **Output of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 834.4 tons, down 22.4 tons or - 2.6%. Threaded steel output is 200.0 tons, down 8.5 tons or - 4.1%, including a 1.2 - ton or - 4.0% decrease in electric - furnace output and a 7.4 - ton or - 4.1% decrease in converter output. Hot - rolled coil output is 313.7 tons, down 4.5 tons or - 1.4% [1]. Inventory - **Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 1477.4 tons, down 26.2 tons or - 1.7%. Threaded steel inventory is 576.2 tons, down 16.4 tons or - 2.8%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, with a negligible change [1]. Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It is 9.2 tons, down 0.4 tons or - 4.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 860.6 tons, down 6.3 tons or - 0.7%. The apparent demand for threaded steel is 216.4 tons, down 2.2 tons or - 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 313.6 tons, down 0.7 tons or - 0.2% [1]. Report on the Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures oscillated. Although the hot - metal output rebounded this week, there is limited room for further increase. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged [5]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the basis of Carol powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%, PB powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0%, Brazilian Blend powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.8%, and Jinbuba powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0% [5]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is 25.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 6.4%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 61.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan or - 6.0%; the 1 - 5 spread is 36.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan or 5.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - **Spot Prices at Rizhao Port**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 104.5 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1%, and the Platts 62% Fe is 105.2 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1% [5]. Supply - **Arrival Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 2268.9 tons, down 472.3 tons or - 17.2%. - **Global Shipment Volume (Weekly)**: It is 3516.4 tons, up 447.4 tons or 14.6%. - **National Monthly Import Volume**: It is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons or 10.6% [5]. Demand - **Daily Average Hot - Metal of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Daily Average Out - Port Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 327.0 tons, up 6.0 tons or 1.9%. - **National Monthly Pig Iron Output**: It is 6554.9 tons, down 49.7 tons or - 0.8%. - **National Monthly Crude Steel Output**: It is 7199.7 tons, down 149.3 tons or - 2.0% [5]. Inventory Change - **Inventory at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 15114.45 tons, down 15.3 tons or - 0.1%. - **Imported Ore Inventory of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 9076.0 tons, up 66.1 tons or 0.7%. - **Inventory Availability Days of 64 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 21.0 days, unchanged [5]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Coke futures continued to decline, and the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking enterprises has been fully implemented. Coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. For both coke and coking coal, a short - side oscillation is expected, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot and Futures**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract is 1639 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 0.6%, and the 05 contract is 1796 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.0% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 157 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) is - 54 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot and Futures**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1264 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or - 2.1%. The coking coal 01 contract is 1140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 1.7%, and the 05 contract is 1211 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.7% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [8]. - **Sample Coal Mine Profit**: The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 569 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 4.2% [8]. Supply - **Coke Production (Weekly)**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.0 tons, down 0.6 tons or - 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.2 tons, up 0.1 tons or 0.2% [8]. - **Coking Coal Production (Weekly)**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.8 tons, up 5.4 tons or 0.6%, and the clean coal output is 435.7 tons, up 2.7 tons or 0.6% [8]. Demand - **Hot - Metal Production (Weekly)**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Coke Demand (Weekly)**: Reflected in the coke production requirements, with the change of coking plant and steel mill production [8]. Inventory Change - **Coke Inventory (Weekly)**: The total coke inventory is 879.4 tons, down 7.7 tons or - 0.9%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [8]. - **Coking Coal Inventory (Weekly)**: The clean coal inventory of some coal mines is 87.6 tons, up 7.2 tons or 9.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports has different changes, with an overall median increase [8]. Supply - Demand Gap - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap (Weekly)**: It is - 5.5 tons, down 1.8 tons or - 32.5% [8].