1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment, the summer consumption peak season ends, US inventories accumulate, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthens. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating performance [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an overall increase in global crude oil production. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid production to be 10,553 million barrels per day, up 2.34 million barrels per day from 2024. In August, OPEC countries' crude oil production increased compared to July according to different reports [3] - **Demand (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all have neutral to slightly positive views on demand. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid demand to be 10,381 million barrels per day, up 0.9 million barrels per day from 2024 [3] - **Inventory (Short term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ending September 5, with various refined oil inventories also showing different changes [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - long term)**: OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in October 2025, with a daily increase of about 137,000 barrels. Some OPEC+ countries need to compensate for excess production [3] - **Geopolitics (Short term)**: The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate, and Trump's statement about possible new tariffs on Asian and Indian buyers of Russian oil add geopolitical premium to oil prices [3] - **Macro - finance (Short term)**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut rising from 8% to 11.9% and a 25 - basis - point cut at 88.1% [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show an oscillating performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances led to a halt in the decline and an oscillating trend of international oil prices. As of September 12, WTI crude oil rose by $0.63 per barrel (+1.02%), Brent crude oil rose by $1.21 per barrel (+1.84%), and SC crude oil fell by 6.7 yuan per barrel (-1.39%) [8] - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [11] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [27] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In August, OPEC production increased, non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and the US weekly crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day. However, the US production showed a decline in exports and an increase in domestic production [45][55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories increased by 393,900 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels, Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased significantly, and refinery operating rates fluctuated slightly. In China, refinery capacity utilization rebounded slightly [107][116] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [138] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [147]

2012 31 2025-9-15 分析师：方富强 F3043701 Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 F3040017 Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 F03131200 ITG国贸期货 目录 01 有色及新能源价格监测 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 03 碳酸锂 (LC) 01 PART ONE 有色及新能源价格监测 | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | 年涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | | 美元指数 | 1973年3月 =100 | 97 6178 . | 0 09% . | -0 . | 12% | -10 01% . | 工业硅 | 元/吨 | 8745 | 0 06% . | -0 85% . | -20 39% . | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储议息会议临近，有色板块能否维持强势？ 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-9-15 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the glass and soda ash industries is bearish [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the glass and soda ash industries are poor, and prices are under pressure. The glass industry has increasing supply, potential demand improvement in the peak season, and high inventory. The soda ash industry has high supply, neutral demand, and weakened cost support [3][4] - The overall market sentiment is not good due to the "anti - involution" logic and weak reality. The trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Glass**: Supply is slightly increasing with a daily output of 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th), an industry start - up rate of 76.01% (unchanged), and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). Demand may improve marginally in the peak season. Inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy suggests a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). Demand is neutral with stable short - term direct demand but poor terminal demand. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Glass**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1180 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1072 (+16). The basis fluctuated, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased [6][20] - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1290 (+25), and the Shahe spot price was 1197 (+5). The basis and the 01 - 05 spread both fluctuated [11][20] Part Three: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Glass Supply**: Production increased steadily. The daily output was 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th). The start - up rate was 76.01% (unchanged), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). The production profit fluctuated [23] - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders were weak, and the real - estate completion data was poor. However, inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases [28] - **Soda Ash Supply**: Production reached a high level again, with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). The alkali plant profit fluctuated [31] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Demand was neutral. Short - term direct demand was stable, but terminal demand was poor. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and it is expected to be mainly bullish, with no obvious driving factors [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side is bearish as crude oil prices fall, domestic PTA device supply gradually returns, and the PTA basis weakens [4]. - The demand side is bullish as the downstream load of polyester maintains around 91%, and the inventory performance of polyester factories is optimistic [4]. - The inventory situation is neutral as the port inventory of PTA decreased by 10,000 tons this week and continues to decline [4]. - The basis is bearish as the PTA basis weakens slightly, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - The profit is bearish as the spread between PX and naphtha is at $230, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan and has shrunk [4]. - The valuation is neutral as the PTA price is at a moderately low level, and the supply of aromatics has increased [4]. - The macro - policy is neutral as the Ministry of Finance continues to implement a package of debt - resolution measures [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. Crude oil price decline, increased supply from Huizhou PTA in China, and weakening PTA basis [4]. - Demand: Bullish. Polyester downstream load around 91%, optimistic inventory, and increased load in bottle - chip varieties [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. PTA port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons this week [4]. - Basis: Bearish. Slightly weakened PTA basis and low profit [4]. - Profit: Bearish. PX - naphtha spread at $230, and PTA processing fee around 200 yuan with contraction [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. PTA price at a moderately low level, increased aromatics supply [4]. - Macro - policy: Neutral. Ministry of Finance's debt - resolution measures [4]. - Investment view: Oscillation, expected to be mainly bullish [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral - wait and see, pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Oil Product Fundamental Overview - Gasoline: Peak - season destocking but approaching off - season. Refinery operating rate decreased from 94.6% to 94.3%, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and demand is expected to enter the off - season [25]. 3.3 Part Three: Aromatics Fundamental Overview - Some devices plan maintenance, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply increases [33]. - Asian naphtha price is firm, gasoline cracking spread rebounds slightly, and the spread between regular gasoline and naphtha cracking widens [44]. - The profit of selective disproportionation of aromatics decreases slightly [49]. - MX cross - regional arbitrage is marginally feasible, and the spread between the US and South Korea is around $187 [54]. - Asian MX spot price weakens, and the spread between MX and naphtha narrows to $88/ton [61]. - The gasoline reforming and aromatics reforming are both acceptable, but PTA performs weakly due to falling crude oil prices and weakening basis [72]. 3.4 Part Four: Polyester Fundamental Overview - Ethylene glycol: Supply returns, and the price is weak. The port inventory in East China is 459,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline [86]. - Gasoline: The load of major refineries increases [88]. - Polyester: The load maintains at a high level, and the production increases, waiting for downstream feedback [95][107].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 机构抛压导致债期进一步走弱 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2025-9-15 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 本周市场前四个交易日再度走低，周五市场小幅回暖。债期调整的压力主要来自于基金赎回费和基金取消免税的担忧，基金成为砸盘主力，有传闻称大行巨额赎回，并暂停了申 赎明细外发。虽然机构行为仍偏利空，但赎回结束后，债基资金重回自营后，仍是债券市场的配置力量。前半周市场调整较快，情绪极度脆弱，抢跑砸盘压力较大，市场承接力 不足，导致现券收益率十年期站上1.8%上方，三十年期站上2%。周四周五市场情绪边际好转，有以下增量消息：一是传闻财政部对收益率上行不满，认为对债券发行产生负面 影响，找央行沟通了，二是传闻大行，财政部金融司，央行讨论重启国债购买，主要向大行买5-10年的国债，三是央行买断式回购操作6000亿元，月内有3000亿MLF和3000亿 买断式回购到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the provided content. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Summarized PVC main weekly data including price, production, inventory, and profit information [4] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Showed PVC price ranges and price trends of futures contracts and basis [6][7] PART THREE: PVC Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Presented various historical data related to PVC supply and demand such as production, price, and inventory over multiple years [16][18][20]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold and silver continued their strong upward trend, with silver showing a more robust performance. The weakening employment and consumer confidence in the US, along with limited inflation recovery, strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting precious metal prices. Silver also showed a significant catch - up effect. [2] - In the short term, with the almost certain rate cut in September, precious metal prices are expected to remain high and strong. However, the recent rise may have fully priced in the September rate - cut expectation, so there is a risk of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," and short - term market volatility may intensify. [4] - In the long term, gold prices still have upward potential due to factors such as the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, global geopolitical instability, intensifying anti - globalization, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, which support central banks' net gold purchases. [4] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price Movements**: Last week, London spot gold broke through the $3650/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold futures' main contract exceeded 840 yuan/kg, both hitting new highs. London silver broke through the $42/ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract exceeded 10,000 yuan/kg, reaching a high since the end of December 2012. [2] - **Data Metrics**: For gold, London spot gold rose 1.58% week - on - week, and Shanghai gold's main contract rose 2.28%. For silver, London spot silver rose 2.91% week - on - week, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 2.27%. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ETF holdings, and inventory. [3] PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **US Economic Indicators** - **GDP**: The US second - degree GDP growth was strong, but consumer confidence declined again. Manufacturing and service PMI both dropped, and retail sales data showed mixed trends. [55][56] - **Employment**: The employment market cooled significantly. The August non - farm payrolls were weak, the unemployment rate rose, job vacancies decreased, labor participation increased, and wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year. [62][66] - **Inflation**: There was a rising pressure on inflation. Core commodity inflation increased, while core service inflation decreased. Consumer inflation expectations also rose significantly. [68][71] - **European Economic Indicators** - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered, while the service PMI declined. GDP showed a bottom - up trend, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented. [75][77] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 10 consecutive months. As of the end of August, China's gold reserves were about 2302.279 tons, with a month - on - month increase of about 1.87 tons. [85] - Global central banks maintained net gold purchases in 2025. In the first half of 2025, they net - purchased 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4%. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - environment of the market has improved, and the main methanol futures have shown a relatively strong trend. The news of the malfunction and shutdown of the Iranian device has increased market expectations, driving up the coastal basis and improving the overall trading atmosphere. The inland market has also trended strongly. Some olefin plants in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have continued to purchase externally, increasing the demand of the main downstream. There is also an expectation of pre - National Day restocking among downstream enterprises, and the traditional downstream has actively followed up. Methanol enterprises have smoothly sold their products, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices. However, due to the poor overall profit of the traditional downstream, the cost pressure has restricted the increase in methanol prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The domestic methanol supply this week shows a situation of "decreased domestic production, reduced imports, but increased inventory at ports". The total production capacity utilization rate is 84.58%, and the weekly output is 1.9193 million tons, both showing a month - on - month decline because the output of the production capacity involved in maintenance and production reduction is more than the loss of the production capacity involved in recovery. The import volume has shrunk, with this week's import volume at 432,500 tons, a decrease of 3.87%. It is expected that the arrival volume next week will be 348,500 - 350,000 tons, a decrease of 23.24%. The 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran has malfunctioned and shut down [2] Demand - This week, the domestic methanol demand shows a situation of "pressure on the main downstream and differentiation in the traditional downstream", and the overall demand lacks resilience. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants is 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally is 69.06%, a significant month - on - month decrease of 9.75%. The shutdown of some MTO plants in the northwest is the main drag. The traditional downstream is differentiated: the formaldehyde industry is driven by the increase in the device load in North and Central China; the acetic acid industry has a slight increase in operation due to the restart of Anhui Huayi's device and the recovery of Nanjing Celanese's load; downstream industries such as dimethyl ether and MTBE are weak [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory shows a situation of "accelerated inventory accumulation at ports and a slight increase inland", and the supply - demand mismatch has increased market pressure. The increase in inventory is mainly due to the concentrated arrival at the supply end and weak demand. At ports, the arrival of foreign vessels has remained at a high level, Iranian goods have been unloaded intensively, and the previously delayed arrival of goods has been concentrated in storage. The supply at ports has been continuously abundant. However, the demand - side support is insufficient, the overall load of MTO plants is at a relatively low level, and enterprises such as Xingxing have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slowdown in the port pick - up speed and weak inventory digestion. Overall, the port inventory is close to the historical high. Inland, the inventory pressure in the inland market is relatively mild, with a month - on - month slight increase of 2.31%, mainly because the operation in the main production areas in the northwest has slightly declined, and the improvement of short - distance transportation in some areas has alleviated the inventory accumulation rhythm. The malfunction and shutdown of the 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran have a certain positive impact on the port inventory accumulation [2] Profit - This week, the overall methanol profit has improved, with different processes showing differentiation. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.97%; the full - cost profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest is 126.74 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 55.55%); the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei is 303 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 3.41%); the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest has narrowed by 48 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in methanol prices, the profits of industries such as MTO in the downstream are mostly under pressure [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - On September 10, sources said that when Trump talked with EU officials, he clearly proposed, as part of the pressure on Russia, to urge the EU to impose a "secondary tariff" of up to 100% on China and encourage the EU to take similar measures against India. The Houthi armed forces confirmed a ballistic missile attack on Israel [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see; Arbitrage: MA1 - 5 positive spread. Areas of risk concern include downstream demand, olefin external procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Palm Oil (medium to long term), Other Oils (fourth quarter) [1] - **Bearish**: Anti -内卷 products, Black metals, Coke, Coking coal, Benzene ethylene [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury bonds, Silver, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial silicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Shanghai rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Big - three products, PE, PVC, LPG [1] Core Views - Short - term stock index futures discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments; asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, and the price may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices for copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals, but factors such as inventory accumulation may put pressure on some metal prices [1] - For agricultural products, although short - term factors may cause price fluctuations, the long - term bullish logic for some oils remains unchanged [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as production resumption, production increase plans, and changes in supply and demand affect product prices, with some products facing downward pressure and others showing short - term adjustment risks [1] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Gold**: The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support, and it may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - **Copper**: U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed rate - cut expectations and the approaching consumption peak season are favorable, but high inventory may put pressure on prices [1] - **Alumina**: Output and inventory are increasing, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment improvement supports the non - ferrous sector, but continuous inventory accumulation pressures zinc prices, with a narrow rebound [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term supply concerns and approaching stainless - steel peak season may lead to a short - term strong - side shock, but long - term primary nickel surplus pressure remains [1] - **Stainless steel**: Raw material price increases and inventory reduction, with short - term strong - side shock operation [1] - **Tin**: With improved macro sentiment and expected demand improvement in the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in shock [1] Black metals - **Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore**: Valuation returns to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and warm macro drivers, showing a sideways trend [1] - **Anti -内卷 products**: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - **Coke, Coking coal**: Supply - demand imbalance, with supply surplus pressure and price under pressure [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: MPOB report shows slight inventory accumulation, with short - term callback risk and long - term bullish logic [1] - **Other oils**: USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the fourth - quarter bullish logic remains unchanged [1] - **Cotton**: New - crop cotton has a high - yield expectation, with short - term supply tightness and acquisition game as the focus [1] - **Sugar**: New - sugar pre - sale price is lower, with limited short - term downward space and expected sideways - weak trend [1] - **Soybeans**: 9 - month USDA report is bearish, but the U.S. market is strong, with limited downward space for the domestic market and short - term sideways movement [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist, with a loose fundamental situation [1] - **Shanghai rubber**: Raw material cost support is strong, but inventory reduction is slow and short - term market sentiment is weak [1] - **BR rubber**: Attention should be paid to inventory reduction progress and autumn device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Domestic production recovers, the basis declines rapidly, and downstream polyester starts to operate at a high load [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The basis strengthens, but new device production and increased hedging pressure the market [1] - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Supply increases significantly, and domestic import pressure rises [1] - **Big - three products**: Limited upward space due to weak domestic demand, with cost - end support [1] - **PE, PVC**: Sideways - weak trend due to factors such as limited maintenance support and supply pressure [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase and other factors suppress upward movement [1]