所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-13 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025-10-13 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 万斯称"特朗普愿意与中国进行理性谈判" 观点分享： 10 月 12 日晚间，美国副总统万斯在接受采访时表示，特朗普愿意与中国进行理性谈 判。"万斯说，总统"珍视他与中方建立的友谊"，但他说："我们拥有很多筹码。我的希 望——我也知道总统的希望——是我们不必动用这些筹码。""接下来的几周，我们会看到 很多迹象。"与之相对应的是，12 日，中国商务部表示，动辄以高额关税进行威胁，不是与 中方相处的正确之道。对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打。我们 认为，从上述情况及今晨美股期指、加密货币的走势等判断，市场预期"TACO"交易再次 上演的可能性较大。而从交易来说，一方面我们固然要依据各种蛛丝马迹通过逻辑分析做出 策略判断，另一方面，由于此类政治事件的高度不确定性，我们也有必要对小概率事件作出 心理预设和防控性策略。 | | | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 期指 | ★★★★ | 期指：风险暂歇，也无风雨也无晴。周一，美方再释缓和信 ...

宏 观 经 济 研 究 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年 10 月 13 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-10-13 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 由于民主党和共和党的拨款法案在参议院第七次未能通过，美国联邦政府部分停摆仍在持续。这也让原 本应该公布的多项数据被推迟。未来一周可能推迟的其他报告包括普查局的零售销售、住房开工和企业库 存。美国经济分析局已暂停运作，原定于 10 月 30 日发布第三季度 GDP 初值也可能受到影响。 美东时间 10 月 10 日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征 100%关税， 并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。美方以高额关税进行威胁，关税战 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 PTA：中期仍偏弱 MEG：1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6480 | 4534 | 4100 | 6200 | 461.9 | | 涨跌 | -82 | -50 | -58 | -92 | -9.1 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.25% | -1.09% | -1.39% | -1.46% | -1.93% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -42 | -52 | -85 | -52 | -2 | | 前日收盘价 | -24 | -48 | -77 | -42 | -2 | | 涨跌 | -18 | -4 | -8 | -10 | 0 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 铜：宏观情绪扰动，价格下跌 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 85,910 | -0.97% | 83030 | -3.35% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,374 | -3.73% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 212,468 | 74,652 | 216,115 | -5,600 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 41,097 | -3,685 | 322,000 | 3,981 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 29,964 | 261 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 139,400 | -75 | 5.99% | -0.05% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 10 月 10 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中美贸易担忧，大豆下跌。北京德润林 2025 年 10 月 11 日消息：周 五，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，原因是中国宣布的贸易限制措施以及美国总统唐纳 德·特朗普不断升级的言辞，浇灭了人们对解决华盛顿与北京之间僵局的希望。这场僵局已导致中国暂停 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕：中美贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温，预计反弹 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 豆一：贸易摩擦忧虑，预计反弹 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | 涨 跌 | （元/吨） | -7（-0.18%） | -13（-0.33%） | DCE豆一2511 | 3953 | 3945 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Overview - Date: October 13, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Industry: Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment has turned bearish, leading to low - level oscillations in nickel prices [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The combination of macro factors and market reality exerts downward pressure, but the cost floor limits the downside potential [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Anticipated tariff hikes are suppressing demand, which may cause lithium prices to face downward pressure [2][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream production is resuming, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on price rallies [2][10]. - **Polysilicon**: With a weekend meeting held, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on price dips [2][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180 yuan, down 2,300 yuan from the previous day. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,780 yuan, down 80 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a nickel mine due to license violations, potentially affecting monthly production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued new regulations on mining business plans [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both nickel and stainless steel is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,740 yuan, down 600 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, and various price spreads in the lithium carbonate market [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. Tibetan Mining received new mining rights. Ford postponed lithium purchases and adjusted its electric - vehicle tax - credit plan [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, suggesting a bearish view [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,685 yuan/ton. There were detailed data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, spot prices, and profit margins for industrial silicon and polysilicon [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on metal silicon imports from Angola starting October 1 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for industrial silicon is - 1 (bearish), and for polysilicon, it is 0 (neutral) [13].

2025 年 10 月 13 日 铝：风险点聚焦流动性及衰退主题 氧化铝：重心下移 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美国 9 月 CPI 报告发布时间定于 10 月 24 日，比原定晚 9 天。根据美国劳工统计局，重磅的美国 9 月 CPI 报告将于 10 月 24 日美国东部时间上午 8 点 30 分发布，比原定时间推迟了 9 天。最新的 9 月 CPI 发 布时间，也赶在了美联储 10 月 28 日至 29 日的 FOMC 政策会议前发布。（华尔街见闻） 2. 官方报告未公布，高盛预计美国首申失业金人数升至 23.5 万。高盛经济学家 Jan Hatzius 等人在最新 的研报中表示，截至 10 月 4 日当周，美国首次申请失业金人数增加到了 23.5 万，高盛估算的前周首申失业 金人数约为 22.4 万。（华尔街见闻） | | | T | T-1 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年10月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：弱势震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 10 | | PP：趋势仍偏弱 | 11 | | 烧碱：短期不追空 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 16 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：空单止盈 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期偏弱运行 | 22 | | 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 | 22 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油：继续下跌，短期弱势难以摆脱 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：短期或弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短线延续弱势，回调找买点 | 27 | | 短纤：预期驱动下跌，加工 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - **Trend strength**: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and industry news**: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - **Trend strength**: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - **Trend strength**: -1 [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are facing a combination of weak current situations and weakening expectations, and steel prices may experience a slight correction [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Rebar futures (RB2601) closed at 3,103 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.52%. The trading volume was 1,039,362 lots, and the open interest was 1,926,153 lots, an increase of 18,024 lots [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures (HC2601) closed at 3,285 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.37%. The trading volume was 414,002 lots, and the open interest was 1,397,651 lots, an increase of 23,065 lots [1] 3.1.2 Spot Price Data - Rebar spot prices in Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,300 yuan/ton, 3,250 yuan/ton, 3,180 yuan/ton, and 3,310 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [1] - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,350 yuan/ton, 3,380 yuan/ton, 3,290 yuan/ton, and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Shanghai and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of RB2601 was 147 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The basis of HC2601 was 65 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was -56 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was 110 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 182 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2605 and RB2605 was 133 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 3 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 10, 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff and implementing export controls on all key software [1][3] - In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% month-on-month decrease. The export average price was 698.0 US dollars/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. From January to August, China's cumulative steel exports reached 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year-on-year increase, and the export average price was 699.1 US dollars/ton, a 10.1% year-on-year decrease [3] - In August 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% month-on-month increase, the first increase since May this year. The import average price was 1,653.0 US dollars/ton, a 8.4% month-on-month decrease. From January to August, China's cumulative steel imports reached 397,700 tons, a 14.1% year-on-year decrease, and the import average price was 1,697.7 US dollars/ton, a 1.5% year-on-year increase [3] - According to the weekly data from SteelUnion on October 8, in terms of production, rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total production of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar inventory increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar apparent demand decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and the trend intensity of hot-rolled coil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3]