1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: High-level oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight rebound [1] - Cast aluminium alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminium [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After Trump lifted the tariff threat, the European Parliament plans to unfreeze the review of the EU-US trade agreement, and the Prime Minister of Greenland reiterated the bottom line. Initial voting on the EU-US agreement in the parliament may take place in the next few days [3]. - Nordic pension funds are accelerating their exit from the US market. Sweden's Alecta has sold most of its approximately $11 billion holdings, Denmark's AkademikerPension plans to liquidate its holdings by the end of January, and Greenland's SISA Pension is considering withdrawing half of its approximately $110 million in US stock investments [3]. - The trend strength of aluminium is 1, alumina is -1, and aluminium alloy is 1 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Aluminium - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 24,055, down 100 from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 355,802, a decrease of 112,454 from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME Aluminium 3M closing price was 3,138, up 20 from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,717, up 45 from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 192,481, a decrease of 54,805 from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminium Alloy - The closing price of the aluminium alloy main contract was 22,855, down 40 from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume of the aluminium alloy main contract was 8,386, a decrease of 2,374 from the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Aluminium - The domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots was 189,000 tons, an increase of 768,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - The LME aluminium ingot inventory was 509,300 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2,657, down 14 from the previous trading day [1]. - The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was $329 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminium Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 142, an increase of 764 from the previous trading day [1]. - The three - place inventory total of aluminium alloy was 42,520, a decrease of 291 from the previous trading day [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report indicates that egg spot prices are strong before the festival [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The closing price of egg2602 is 3,094 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 2.55%, and a trading volume change of 6,582 and a position change of -6,104 [1]. - The closing price of egg2603 is 3,095 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 1.71%, and a trading volume change of 56,249 and a position change of 4,823 [1]. - The egg 2 - 3 spread is -1 (latest day) compared to -14 (previous day), and the egg 3 - 9 spread is -865 (latest day) compared to -904 (previous day) [1]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.70 yuan/jin, 3.44 yuan/jin, 3.80 yuan/jin, and 3.67 yuan/jin respectively, showing an increase in Liaoning, Hebei, and Shanxi compared to the previous day [1]. 3.3 Industry Chain Data - The latest spot prices of corn and soybean meal are 2,370 yuan/ton and 3,080 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The latest price of live pigs in Henan is 13.23 yuan/kg, up from 13.13 yuan/kg the previous day [1]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral view [2].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The impact of the US stock market on A-shares is short-lived, and A-shares are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2026 has been allocated to support equipment renewal projects, driving total investment of over 4600 billion yuan [6] Group 2: Index Futures Data Tracking Index Futures Price and Trading Volume - On January 22, the closing prices and price changes of the four major index futures contracts varied. IF decreased by 0.18%, IH by 0.53%, IC increased by 0.54%, and IM by 0.87% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, with IF, IH, IC, and IM decreasing by 5611, 1888, 33485, and 41927 lots respectively. In terms of positions, IF and IH increased by 2744 and 1408 lots respectively, while IC and IM decreased by 432 and 9411 lots respectively [1][2] Index Futures Basis and Member Positions - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures showed different trends [1][4] - The changes in the long and short positions of the top 20 members of index futures varied among contracts [5] Group 3: Stock Market Performance A-share Market - A-shares showed a narrow consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14% to 4122.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.5%, the ChiNext Index rising 1.01%, etc. The full-day trading volume was 2.72 trillion yuan, higher than the previous day's 2.62 trillion yuan [6] - Commercial space concept stocks were active, the photovoltaic industry chain was active, building materials stocks soared in the afternoon, the petroleum industry chain strengthened, and coal stocks rose in the afternoon. However, semiconductor and computing power industry chains opened high and closed low, and gold stocks declined [6] Hong Kong Stock Market - Hong Kong stocks showed a narrow consolidation, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.17% to 26629.96 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.28%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling 0.09%. The market trading volume was 2348.60 billion Hong Kong dollars, a decrease from the previous day [7] US and European Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.63%, the S&P 500 Index rising 0.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 0.91%. European stocks also closed higher, with the German DAX Index rising 1.2%, the French CAC40 Index rising 0.99%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rising 0.12% [8]

2026 年 01 月 23 日 锌：具备向上弹性 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24400 | 0.21% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3175 | 0.00% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 131273 | -14813 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10031 | -1448 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118558 | -3135 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 228807 | -649 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 55 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -40.12 | 3.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The trading center of platinum is moving up, and palladium is following the upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 633.85 with a 0.85% increase; gold - exchange platinum closed at 624.40 with a - 0.50% decrease. New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was at 2627.10 with a 5.98% increase. London spot platinum (previous day) was at 2633.10 with a 6.39% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 483.75 with a - 0.42% decrease. RMB spot palladium was at 437.00 with a - 1.35% decrease. New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was at 1945.50 with a 3.79% increase. London spot palladium (previous day) was at 1904.00 with a 3.42% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 18,206 kg, a decrease of 10,045 kg compared to the previous day. Its position was 36,352 kg, a decrease of 1,071 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 52,818 kg, a decrease of 14,081 kg, and its position was 103,299 kg, a decrease of 230 kg. Guangdong palladium trading volume was 6,548 kg, a decrease of 1,384 kg, and its position was 13,918 kg, a decrease of 5 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 12,295 kg, a decrease of 2,099 kg, and its position was 55,980 kg, a decrease of 124 kg [2]. - **ETF Position**: Platinum ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 3,242,354 with no change. Palladium ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 1,192,934 with no change [2]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 675,766, an increase of 11,373. NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 216,266, a decrease of 398 [2]. - **Spread**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 9.45, a decrease of 8.51 compared to the previous day. The spread between Guangdong platinum 2606 contract and 2610 contract was 2.20, a decrease of 0.95. The cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 cross - period arbitrage was 7.78, an increase of 0.06. The spread between Guangdong platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was - 32.31, a decrease of 34.90. The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 46.75, a decrease of 3.95. The spread between Guangdong palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was - 5.65, an increase of 7.55 [2]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.34, a decrease of 0.71%. The US dollar against RMB (CNY spot) was 6.96, an increase of 0.04%. The US dollar against offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.96, an increase of 0.08%. The US dollar against RMB (6M forward) was 6.88, a decrease of 0.05% [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Trump administration is seeking to "promote regime change in Cuba" by the end of the year. - US media reported that the US is considering a full withdrawal from Syria, potentially ending its more than a decade - long military operation there. - Trump signed documents with representatives of more than a dozen countries and regions in Davos to launch a "Peace Committee". - Trump said that the measure of imposing a 25% tariff on any country having (trade) relations with Iran will take effect soon. - The US House of Representatives passed a package of bills to prevent the government from shutting down at the end of this month, which will be sent to the Senate for review. - Trump said his meeting with Zelensky was "very good". Zelensky said that a tri - lateral meeting among Ukraine, the US, and Russia will be held in the UAE on the 23rd. - The US November core PCE price index met expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 17 was 200,000, compared to an expected 210,000. - SpaceX has reached an agreement with four banks to prepare for a "super IPO". - The People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations with a one - year term on January 23 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 1; Palladium trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

2026 年 01 月 23 日 短纤：短期趋势偏强 20260123 瓶片：短期趋势偏强 20260123 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | ୧୧38 | ୧486 | 152 | PF02-03 | -2 | -10 | 8 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6640 | 6496 | 144 | PF03-04 | -48 | -40 | -8 | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧୫୫ | ୧୧3୧ | 152 | PF主力基差 | -100 | -16 | -84 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 185407 | 112708 | 72699 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.540 | 6.480 | 60 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190745 | 190842 | -97 | 短纤产销率 | 118% | 78% | ...

2026 年 1 月 23 日 生猪：腊八将至，关注预期印证 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 13230 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12800 | | -50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 13560 | | -250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11470 | | -80 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11820 | | -75 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12450 | | -105 | ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 甲醇：跟随化工板块上行 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,260 | 2,209 | 5 1 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,232 | 2,215 | 1 7 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 1,076,253 | 1,195,172 | -118919 | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 817,171 | 848,962 | -31791 | | 期货市场 | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,675 | 8,075 | -400 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 2,402,542 | 2,646, ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium: De-stocking Pattern Continues, Stronger Sideways Movement" and dated January 23, 2026 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Shao Wanyi (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015722, email: shaowanyi@gtht.com) and Liu Hongru (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0023466, email: liuhongru@gtht.com) [1] Group 3: Fundamental Data Tracking - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 168,780, with a change of 2,040 from T - 1, 5,560 from T - 5, etc.; the trading volume is 464,397, with corresponding changes; the open - interest is 436,686, also with corresponding changes. Similar data is provided for the 2607 contract [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 28,886, with a change of 230 from T - 1 [2] - Various basis data such as spot - 2605, spot - 2607, 2605 - 2607, etc. are presented, including their changes over different time intervals [2] - Raw material prices like lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at 2,130, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) at 4,975, and different lithium salt prices (battery - grade carbonate lithium at 164,500, etc.) are given along with their price changes [2] - Prices and price changes of various products in the lithium industry chain such as different types of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes are provided [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 164,857 yuan/ton, up 5,222 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Battery - grade carbonate lithium is in the range of 16.1 - 16.8 million yuan/ton, with an average of 16.45 million yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade carbonate lithium is in the range of 15.8 - 16.4 million yuan/ton, with an average of 16.1 million yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan/ton [3] - This week's carbonate lithium production is 22,217 tons, a decrease of 388 tons from last week, and the industry inventory is 108,896 tons, with a de - stocking of 783 tons from last week [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 12 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 1、美国 Q3 实际 GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyu ...