2025 年 10 月 09 日 工业硅：预计高开低走，建议逢高布空思路 多晶硅：预计高开低走 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,640 228,120 | 30 -164,582 | -285 -190,560 | 250 -110,854 | | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 174,398 | -32,579 | -99,298 | -118,017 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,360 | 80 | 1,100 | - | | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 163,314 | 5,202 | -132,794 | - | | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 87,359 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - During the National Day holiday, domestic cotton spot prices showed different trends, with the price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang decreasing, while the 3128B index slightly increased; the domestic cotton yarn market had general trading atmosphere, with some manufacturers reducing prices for promotion due to insufficient downstream demand [1][2] - During the long - holiday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated downward, hitting a new low this year. The new U.S. cotton harvest was large, but exports were poor and the global cotton consumption outlook was uncertain, putting pressure on ICE cotton. The suspension of important USDA reports also made the market lack clear fundamental guidance [2] - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On October 9, 2025, CF2601 closed at 13,215 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.01%, and its trading volume was 412,826 lots, an increase of 91,338 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 745,181 lots, an increase of 12,757 lots; CY2511 closed at 19,410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.44%, and its trading volume was 0 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 0 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots; ICE cotton 12 closed at 64.94 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.78% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,081, a decrease of 92 compared with the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2, unchanged; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, unchanged [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang 3128 was 14,492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous day; in southern Xinjiang 3128, it was 14,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94%; in Shandong, it was 14,817 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%; in Hebei, it was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The 3128B index was 14,759 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.07 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.19%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, and the arrival price was 21,392 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan compared with the previous day; the spread between machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang 3128 and CF601 was 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: During the National Day holiday, machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was being harvested, with the seed cotton price above 6.03 yuan/kg, and the price of high - quality seed cotton around 6.2 yuan/kg. In southern Xinjiang, cotton was sporadically on the market, with the price of machine - picked seed cotton ranging from 5.9 to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked seed cotton in Kashgar and Aksu ranging from 6.75 to 7.12 yuan/kg [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was general. Affected by the decline in cotton prices, some manufacturers reduced prices for promotion, but downstream demand was insufficient, and new orders were few, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [2] - **U.S. Cotton**: During the long - holiday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated downward, hitting a new low of 64.16 cents/pound this year. As of October 9, it closed at 64.94 cents/pound, with a cumulative decline of 0.7%. The large harvest of new U.S. cotton, poor exports, and unclear global cotton consumption prospects put pressure on ICE cotton. The suspension of important USDA reports also made the market lack clear guidance [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend strength value ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: B50 road test is advanced, maintain low - long and range - bound operations [2][4] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebounded during the holiday, and soybean oil followed the upward opening of oils and fats [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybean prices rose during the holiday, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound after the holiday [2][11] - Soybean: Pay attention to the soybean market atmosphere, may rebound and fluctuate [2][11] - Corn: Fluctuate weakly [2][14] - Sugar: Fluctuate strongly [2][17] - Eggs: Spot prices continue to decline [2][21] - Pigs: Spot price decline increased during the holiday, it's a basis - narrowing market [2][23] - Peanuts: Fluctuate weakly [2][26] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Malaysian palm oil main contract closed at 4,546 ringgit/ton (up 1.65% during the day, 4,560 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.33%); CBOT soybean oil main contract closed at 51.29 cents/pound (up 0.49%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 168 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 310 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year, which requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters [5][6] - SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month [7] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,927 yuan/ton (down 0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton (down 0.31%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1029.75 cents/bushel (up 0.86%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 278.1 dollars/short - ton (up 0.51%) [11] - Spot: Shandong soybean meal (43%) was 2,940 - 2,980 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - On October 8, CBOT soybean futures continued to rise due to possible downward adjustment of US soybean production and improved prospects of China - US trade negotiations [11][13] Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: C2511 closed at 2,143 yuan/ton (down 1.29%); C2601 closed at 2,130 yuan/ton (down 0.33%) [15] - Spot: Jinzhou平仓 price was 2,280 yuan/ton (unchanged); Guangdong Shekou price was 2,440 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - During the National Day holiday, Northeast corn prices declined, and North Port prices rose slightly on October 6; North China corn prices fluctuated with an overall downward trend [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Main contract price was 5,493 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) [17] - Spot: Mainstream spot price was 5,830 yuan/ton (unchanged) [17] - **Macro and Industry News** - Typhoon "Madam" affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and floods occurred in Guangxi; Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year [17] - Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [17] Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Egg 2510 closed at 2,909 yuan/500 kilograms (down 0.65%); Egg 2601 closed at 3,360 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.36%) [21] - Spot: Liaoning spot price was 3.40 yuan/jin (unchanged); Hebei spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin (down 0.11 yuan/jin) [21] Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Pig 2511 closed at 12,355 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton); Pig 2601 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) [23] - Spot: Henan spot price was 12,480 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: PK510 closed at 7,602 yuan/ton (down 2.54%); PK511 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) [26] - Spot: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton); Henan Baisha general peanuts were 8,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [26] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were slightly weaker than the previous day; in Shandong, prices were stable or slightly weak [27]

2025 年 10 月 9 日 沥青：华南独累库，美委再生波 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,424 | -1.21% | 3,424 | 0.00% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,373 | -1.32% | 3,373 | 0.00% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 126,540 | (25,581) | 111,919 | (20,946) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 47,488 | (7,421) | 84,959 | (6,738) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 44430 | -6220 | | | | | | | 昨日价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each metal: - Gold: Trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [7]. - Silver: Trend intensity of 1, suggesting a moderately positive view [7]. - Copper: Trend intensity of 2, the strongest positive signal [11]. - Zinc: Trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [13]. - Lead: Trend intensity of 0, also neutral [17]. - Tin: Trend intensity of 1, a moderately positive outlook [22]. - Aluminum: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Alumina: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Nickel: Trend intensity of +1, moderately positive [34]. - Stainless Steel: Trend intensity of +1, moderately positive [34]. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Expected to continue reaching new highs. The trend intensity of 1 shows a positive but not extremely strong upward trend [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Copper**: Supply disruptions are expected to drive up prices, with a strong positive trend intensity of 2 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: The market has certain support factors, but the trend intensity of 0 indicates a neutral market situation [12][13]. - **Lead**: Lacks clear driving forces, and prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity of 0 [16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to move within a specific range, with a moderately positive trend intensity of 1 [19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Maintains a bullish outlook, although the trend intensity is 0, suggesting a more cautious bullish stance [24]. - **Alumina**: There are differences in market views, and the trend intensity of 0 reflects a neutral situation [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a neutral trend intensity of 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and investors should be vigilant about news - related disturbances, with a moderately positive trend intensity of +1 [28][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: In the short - term, there is a game between supply - demand and cost factors, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with a moderately positive trend intensity of +1 [28][34]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closed at 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session price reached 870.42 with a 1.02% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3862.90 with a 1.93% increase [5]. - **Market News**: Fed minutes suggest that most officials believe continued easing this year may be appropriate, and the US government shutdown continues, among other factors affecting the gold market [5][8]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closed at 10912 with a 3.07% daily increase, and the night - session price was 10907.00 with a 0.66% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 47.110 with a 1.61% increase [5]. - **Market News**: Similar macro - news as gold also impacts the silver market [5][8]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 83,110 with a 0.90% daily increase, and the night - session price reached 83680 with a 0.69% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic - disk price increased by 3.93% to 10,701 [9]. - **Market News**: Freeport declared force majeure at the Indonesian Grasberg mine, and Chile's copper production in August decreased by 9.9%, among other supply - side factors driving up prices [9][11]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 21825 with a 0.11% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk price increased by 1.25% to 3042 [12]. - **Market News**: Fed officials have differences in views on interest - rate cuts, and the government shutdown affects economic data release, which impacts the zinc market [13]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16940 with a 0.50% increase, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk price increased by 0.07% to 2005 [16]. - **Market News**: Fed officials' concerns about inflation and employment, as well as the US government shutdown, are the main influencing factors [17]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 272,410 with a 0.61% decrease, but the night - session price increased by 2.62% to 279,670. The LME Tin 3M electronic - disk price increased by 3.05% to 35,465 [20]. - **Market News**: Global macro - events such as the US government shutdown, Fed policies, and geopolitical situations affect the tin market [20][23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20680, and the LME Aluminum 3M price was 2687. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2868, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20210 [24]. - **Market News**: The US government shutdown, budget deficits, and other macro - factors impact the market. There are also differences in views on alumina [24][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,900, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,730 [28]. - **Market News**: Indonesian mining policies, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting plants, and other factors affect the market. There is a game between smelting inventory and ore - end expectations in the nickel market, and a game between supply - demand and cost in the stainless - steel market [28][30][34].

陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 9 日 LPG：节中外盘弱势运行 丙烯：节中现货止跌反弹 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,237 | -1.30% | #N/A | #N/A | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,159 | -1.14% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2601 | 6,320 | -0.71% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2602 | 6,374 | -0.25% | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 74,352 | 12604 | 64,900 | -5947 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2512 ...

2025年10月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：基本面与宏观情绪博弈，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：基本面与宏观情绪博弈，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 780. 5 | -3.5 | -0. 45% | | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 9 日 原油：季节性累库开启，暂时震荡市 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收涨 0.82 美元/桶，涨幅 1.33%，报 62.55 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收涨 0.80 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%，报 66.25 美元/桶。 1、USGC 原油套利 | 原油品种 | 状态 | 价值 | 市场供需情况分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arab Extra Light vs WTI | Closed | -6.16 | 轻质原油竞争激烈：中东轻质原油相对于美国 本土原油无经济性，表明美国轻质原油供应充 | | MEH | | | | | | | | 足，炼厂偏好本地低成本原料 | | | | | 大西洋盆地供应充足：安哥拉原油无法与美国 | | Nemba vs WTI MEH | Closed | -5.55 | 本土原油竞争，反映大西洋盆地中等含硫原油 | | | | | 供应过剩，价差需要扩大才能刺激进口 | | | | | 北海 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：印尼影响锡价上涨 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：270000-285000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01-03 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-08 03-19 03-31 04-12 04-23 05-07 05-19 05-29 06-11 06-24 07-07 07-17 07-29 08-09 08-20 09-01 09-11 09-23 10-11 10-22 11-03 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-17 12-30 吨 全球锡总库存 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01-14 01-26 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：国庆间突破4000；白银：金银比继续回落 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：850-900元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升4.01%，伦敦银回落4.93%。金银比从前周的83.5回落至82.2，10年期TIPS回落至1.79%，10年期名义利率回落至4.14%（2 年期3.57%），美元指数录得98.58.。 ◆ 假期间外盘黄金价格继续上涨，COMEX黄金于10月7日冲破4000美金大关，涨幅超过3%。假期间海外事件扰动不断，首先是美国政府关门事 件，由于两党法案没能达成一致导致美国政府出现7年来首次被迫关门。截至目前美国政府关门近一周 ...