1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Africa's rubber production and harvested area increased rapidly from 2016 - 2023, with total production rising from 691,800 tons to 1,986,500 tons, accounting for 13.46% of the world's total in 2023 [1][6]. - Cote d'Ivoire is the largest rubber - producing country in Africa, with a production of 1,548,000 tons in 2023, accounting for 78% of Africa's total. Its production CAGR from 2018 - 2023 was +19.92% [1][8]. - It is expected that the inflection point of Cote d'Ivoire's rubber production capacity growth rate will appear before 2030 [2][36]. - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export bottleneck has been basically resolved, and its export growth rate is expected to recover [2]. - African rubber faces challenges from the high relative returns of other cash crops, but also has opportunities due to its price advantage [2]. - In the short term, potential zero - tariff shocks and continued capacity growth will put downward pressure on African rubber prices, but the supply pressure is expected to ease after around 2030 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 African Natural Rubber Main Distribution and Producing Areas 3.1.1 African Rubber Planting History and Main Producing Countries - Rubber trees were introduced to Africa in the early 20th century. From 2016 - 2023, Africa's rubber production and harvested area increased rapidly due to high prices around 2010 [1][6]. - Cote d'Ivoire is the largest rubber - producing country in Africa. Its rubber production was mainly contributed by industrial plantations initially, and then by rural plantations [11][12]. - Ghana's rubber production in 2023 was 126,400 tons, with a CAGR of +25.07% from 2018 - 2023, ranking second in Africa [16]. - Liberia's rubber industry is foreign - capital - dominated, with a production of 120,300 tons in 2023 [16]. - Nigeria was the largest rubber - producing country in Africa from 1961 - 1966, but its production was surpassed by Cote d'Ivoire later [17]. [6][16][17] 3.1.2 African Producing Areas' Planting Characteristics and Bottlenecks - African rubber producing areas are mainly in West Africa. Climate conditions, low tapping returns leading to labor shortages, and insufficient infrastructure for rubber transportation are the development bottlenecks [18][21]. - Cote d'Ivoire has a tropical rain - forest climate in the south and a tropical savanna climate in the north, with distinct rainy and dry seasons [19]. 3.1.3 How Long Can Cote d'Ivoire's High - Growth Rate of Production Be Maintained? - Due to the lack of key planting area data, it is difficult to directly infer the production capacity trend. Indirect speculation shows that the new planting area in Cote d'Ivoire probably started to decline around 2014, was at a low level from 2016 - 2021, and began to recover in 2022 [25][27]. - It is expected that the inflection point of Cote d'Ivoire's production capacity growth rate will appear before 2030, but the actual decline may occur earlier due to non - standard tapping and other factors [36]. 3.2 African Natural Rubber Export Situation and International Share 3.2.1 African Rubber Export Types and Trade Flows - In 2023, Cote d'Ivoire exported 1,930,400 tons of natural rubber, with a five - year CAGR of +22.95%. Its export volume accounted for 11.95% of the global total in 2024 [38]. - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports are mainly standard rubber. The government has restricted raw material exports and increased processing capacity. Its export growth rate is expected to recover [42][43][47]. - Ghana and Liberia's export growth from 2013 - 2023 was not obvious. Their export rubber types are mainly standard rubber, latex, and other forms of natural rubber [50]. 3.2.2 Introduction to Major African Rubber Companies - Halcyon Agri is an international company with a long - standing business history, operating in multiple countries and having two major business segments: Halcyon Rubber Company and Corrie MacColl [56]. - Socfin Group is an international agricultural industrial enterprise focusing on oil palm and rubber plantations, with businesses in multiple African and Southeast Asian countries [57]. - SIFCA is a Cote d'Ivoire agricultural - industrial group covering the entire natural rubber value chain, aiming to produce 2 million tons of natural rubber by 2030 [59]. 3.3 Challenges and Opportunities in the African Rubber Market 3.3.1 Substitution by Other Crops such as Cocoa, Coffee, and Cassava - Farmers in Cote d'Ivoire may switch from rubber to cocoa if cocoa prices remain high due to factors like aging cocoa trees [61]. 3.3.2 African Rubber Price Competitiveness and Development Potential - African rubber may not have significant performance defects. Due to different downstream usage habits, it has not been widely used in China, but some tire companies are starting to try it [63]. - If the zero - tariff scope for African rubber is further broadened, its price advantage will be prominent, helping it enter the Chinese rubber consumption market [64].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday trading activity in the carbon market declined, and the main targets continued to decline. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [2]. - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may be a real support for the reversal of carbon prices. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted in October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3 [2][3]. - From September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified quotas, and the accelerated release of mandatory circulation quotas may put pressure on carbon prices. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation quotas nears the end, the upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - **Trading Volume**: The total volume of listed CEA was 58.5 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions was 116.5 tons. Among different years' CEAs, CEA23 had a total trading volume of 48.85 tons, and CEA24 had a total trading volume of 126.16 tons [2][5]. - **Price**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 65.00 yuan/ton, 59.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, 53.61 yuan/ton, and 55.33 yuan/ton respectively. The price of CEA23 decreased by 4.06%, and that of CEA24 decreased by 1.02% [5]. China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - **Trading Volume and Price**: The volume of listed CCER agreements was 1.89 tons, with a transaction average price of 76.23 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The transaction amount was 143.87 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 318.41 tons [2][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on September 30, 2025, including股指期货 (IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512) to be strong - oscillating, 黄金期货 (AU2512) to be strong - oscillating and hit a new high, and 原油期货 (SC2511) to be weak - oscillating, etc. [2] - The report also provides an overview of macro - economic news, such as the Chinese government's macro - policy adjustments, international trade frictions, and the performance of different industries in China and abroad [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 29, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on September 30, they will be strong - oscillating. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4640 and 4690 points and support levels at 4600 and 4571 points [13][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 29, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. It is predicted that on September 30, the ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2512 will be wide - oscillating, and the thirty - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 will be weak - wide - oscillating [36][38]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to be strong - oscillating on September 30, with gold futures likely to hit a new high. For example, AU2512 will attack resistance levels at 875.0 and 880.0 yuan/gram [41][43]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin futures are expected to have different trends. For example, copper futures (CU2511) will be strong - wide - oscillating on September 30, attacking resistance levels at 84000 and 85000 yuan/ton [52]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil and fuel oil futures are expected to be weak - oscillating on September 30. For example, SC2511 will test support levels at 475 and 471 yuan/barrel [102]. - **Other Futures**: Industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and natural rubber futures also have their respective predicted trends on September 30 [73][79][84] 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Chinese government is formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, and 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments are expected to leverage about 6 trillion yuan of investment [7]. - The US and Japanese governments have introduced export control policies, which have been strongly opposed by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce [8]. - The tourism industry in China has recovered rapidly after the pandemic, and the scale of water conservancy infrastructure construction has reached a new high [8]. - From January to August, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2%, and the total profit was 2.79 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.7% [9]. - From January to August, the national social logistics total reached 229.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [9].

航 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 张 and and the see and the see and the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seen and the seen and the seen a 2025 年 09 月 30 日 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价(元/吨) Si2511成交量(手) | 8.610 392. 702 | -350 77, 321 | -340 -193, 985 | 40 99, 509 | | | | Si2511持仓量(手) | 206. 977 | -34. 235 | -78. 513 | -66.777 | | | | PS2511收盘价(元/吨) | 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans (DCE bean - 1) is "shock" [2] - The investment rating for soybean meal is "shock, avoid risks during the long holiday" [3] Core Viewpoints - On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to the expected high - yield of US soybeans and insufficient demand from China. The warm and dry weather in the US Corn Belt accelerated the autumn grain harvest, and the weather is expected to remain similar this week. Analysts predict that the US soybean inventory as of September 1 will be 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decrease from the previous year, and lower than the USDA's September forecast. As of September 28, the US soybean harvest was 19% complete. Brazil, the world's largest oilseed exporter, has started soybean planting, with 3.2% of the sowing completed as of last Thursday, higher than 2% in the same period last year [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - DCE bean - 1 2511: The daytime closing price was 3938 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.05%); the night - time closing price was 3926 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.13%) [2] - DCE soybean meal 2601: The daytime closing price was 2933 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.54%); the night - time closing price was 2931 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (-0.20%) [2] - CBOT soybean 11: The price was 1009.25 cents/bushel, down 4.75 cents (-0.47%) [2] - CBOT soybean meal 12: The price was 275 dollars/short ton, up 0.1 dollars (+0.04%) [2] Spot Data - Shandong: The price of 43% soybean meal was 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton, flat. The spot basis was M2601 + 0/+30, with different basis levels for different months [2] - East China: The price in Taizhou Huifu was 2920 yuan/ton, flat. Different trading companies had different basis levels for different months, and some basis levels increased compared to the previous day [2] - South China: The price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, flat. With different basis levels for different months [2] Main Industry Data - Trading volume: The trading volume of soybean meal was 12.04 million tons/day on the previous trading day, compared to 8.05 million tons/day two trading days ago [2] - Inventory: The inventory data was not available, and the inventory two trading days ago was 117.04 million tons/week [2] Macro and Industry News - On September 29, CBOT soybean futures declined due to the expected high - yield of US soybeans and insufficient demand from China. The US autumn grain harvest accelerated, and the weather is expected to remain warm and dry. Analysts predict a year - on - year decrease in US soybean inventory as of September 1. The US soybean harvest progress was in line with market expectations, and Brazil has started soybean planting with a higher sowing progress than last year [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans (DCE bean - 1) is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract in the daytime on the report day [4]

Report Overview - Title: Manganese Silicon: Sector Sentiment Resonance, Weak and Oscillatory - Date: September 30, 2025 - Analysts: Yafei Li, Yuanyuan Jin (Contact) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The manganese silicon market shows a pattern of sector sentiment resonance with a weak and oscillatory trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Industry News - On September 29, 2025, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (-100), in Qinghai 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton (-50), and in Inner Mongolia 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton; the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, in Gansu 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 6100 - 6150 yuan/ton (cash含税自然块出厂, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton (tax included). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (cash出厂含税报价) [1] - In September 2025, there were a total of 6 silicon - manganese producers in Sichuan - Chongqing and other southern regions, with 16 furnaces in operation. A 6517 silicon - manganese plant in Sichuan and a 6517 plant in Chongqing shut down, while a 6014 plant in Hunan resumed production. The output of 6517 silicon - manganese in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hunan and other southern regions in September was about 59,600 tons [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is -1, and that of manganese silicon is -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 3.3 Futures and Spot Price Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of SF2511 was 5610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 342,390 and an open interest of 133,285; the closing price of SF2601 was 5576 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan, with a trading volume of 137,007 and an open interest of 104,899; the closing price of SM2511 was 5802 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan, with a trading volume of 137,727 and an open interest of 43,582; the closing price of SM2601 was 5820 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan, with a trading volume of 286,763 and an open interest of 344,083 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of ferrosilicon (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of silicomanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the spot and SF2511 was -310 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spread between the spot and SM2601 was -140 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spread between SF2511 and SF2601 was 34 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2511 and SM2601 was -18 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2511 and SF2511 was 192 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2601 and SF2601 was 244 yuan/ton [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to changes in mining certificates and recommends light - position operations before the holiday for lithium carbonate [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2511 contract's closing price was 73,920, with a change of 1,040 compared to T - 1; volume was 465,591, down 15,429 from T - 1; and open interest was 251,749, up 3,109 from T - 1. The 2601 contract's closing price was 73,900, up 1,080 from T - 1; volume was 130,921, up 20,909 from T - 1; and open interest was 174,714, up 720 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Basis**: The warehouse receipt volume was 41,119, up 790 from T - 1. The basis of spot - 2511 was - 370, and spot - 2601 was - 350 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858, up 1 from T - 1; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550, down 50 from T - 1; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300, down 50 from T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,456 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Zimbabwe is investing $400 million to build a lithium sulfate processing plant, which is in the final construction phase and will be completed before the Zimbabwean government's lithium concentrate export ban in January 2027 [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

2025 年 09 月 30 日 短纤：短期震荡，趋势有压力，轻仓过节 瓶片：短期震荡，趋势有压力，轻仓过节 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2510 | 6314 | 6326 | -12 | PF10-11 | -22 | 0 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2511 | 6336 | 6326 | 10 | PF11-12 | 40 | -8 | 48 | | | 短纤2512 | 6296 | 6334 | -38 | PF基差 | 99 | 114 | -15 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 194058 | 194228 | -170 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 435 | 6.440 | -5 | | | 短纤 ...

所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 30 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：继续偏弱 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20730 | -15 | -15 | 140 | 325 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20770 | ー | l | ー | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2671 | 22 | 1 ୧ | 78 | 154 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 132925 | 17745 | 14208 | 8402 | -23151 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 203858 | -8862 | -32209 | -30044 | -44 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on iron ore, stating that its expectations are fluctuating and it is in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the 12601 iron ore futures was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton or - 0.76%. The yesterday's position was 473,992 hands, with a decrease of 34,937 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Imported ores like 65% Carajás fines dropped from 920.0 to 915.0 yuan/ton, 61.5% PB fines from 785.0 to 780.0 yuan/ton, 61% Jimbobara from 755.0 to 750.0 yuan/ton, and 56.5% Super Special from 713.0 to 710.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ores such as 66% Youbang and 65% Laiwu remained unchanged at 952.0 and 870.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 140.2 yuan/ton, while the basis of 12601 against Jimbobara decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 47.7 yuan/ton. The spread of 12509 - 12601 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to - 41.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 12601 - 12605 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 21.5 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB spread remained at 135.0 yuan/ton, the PB - Jimbobara spread at 30.0 yuan/ton, and the PB - Super Special spread decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 70.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [1].