商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 30 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，SMM，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，国家发改委：新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000 亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金，支持民营 企业等深度参与"人工智能+"行动。（华尔街见闻） 投资者担心政府关门可能会推迟关键经济数据，尤其是周五的非农就业报告的发布，而这些数据是美联 储决定未来降息路径的关键。（华尔街见闻） 产业方面，自由港宣布印尼 Grasberg 矿遭遇不可抗力，对于 2025 年第三季度，自由港的综合销售预 铜：美元回落，推升价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 82,370 | -0.12% | 83680 | 1.59% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,429 | 2.19% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持 ...

Report Core View - The report suggests a light - position strategy for eggs during the holiday [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Egg2510 closed at 2,918, with a daily decline of 1.15%, trading volume decreased by 1,203, and open interest decreased by 18,679 [1] - Egg2601 closed at 3,352, with a daily decline of 0.24%, trading volume increased by 1,842, and open interest decreased by 3,186 [1] Spread Data - The Egg10 - 12 spread was - 262 on the latest day, compared to - 233 the previous day [1] - The Egg10 - 1 spread was - 434 on the latest day, compared to - 414 the previous day [1] Spot Price Data - Liaoning's spot price remained at 3.40 yuan/jin [1] - Hebei's spot price dropped from 3.11 to 3.07 yuan/jin [1] - Shanxi's spot price remained at 3.15 yuan/jin [1] - Hubei's spot price dropped from 3.69 to 3.60 yuan/jin [1] Industry Chain Data - The corn spot price dropped from 2,317 to 2,300 yuan/ton [1] - The soybean meal spot price remained at 2,940 yuan/ton [1] - The Henan pig price dropped from 12.58 to 12.43 yuan/kg [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [1]

资料来源：Bloomberg，同花顺 iFinD，SMM，SHMET，国泰君安期货研究 【新闻】 2025 年 09 月 30 日 铅：库存下降，限制价格回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16855 | -1.49% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2001.5 | -0.37% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 76219 | 26944 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4919 | -1765 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 48797 | -11865 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 163630 | 1394 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -41 | -0.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The open interest decreased by 34,937 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined slightly. The basis and inter - contract spreads showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%) and 41 yuan (-1.23%) respectively. Open interest and trading volume data are provided, and spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple industry data were released, including profit data of large - scale industrial enterprises, steel production, inventory, and import - export data. For example, from January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7749.0 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [9][10]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia declined. Various spreads such as basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - product spreads are provided [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and production data in some areas are provided [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 were 1154 yuan/ton and 1647 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (-3.6%) and 45.5 yuan (-2.7%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and basis and inter - contract spreads changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it has never issued or authorized any notices or initiatives regarding "mandatory production cuts" or "joint price increases" [16]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [16]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is 0 [20].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on September 30, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to changes in mining certificates, and light - position operations are recommended before the holiday [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Supply and demand are weakening [2][14] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy expectations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 280 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 97,757 lots, down 65,749 lots from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,760 yuan, down 80 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 275,456 lots, up 13,269 lots from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel production is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target. Some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month. There are also issues such as illegal mining crackdowns and forestry violations in nickel mines [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73,920 yuan, up 1,040 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 465,591 lots, down 15,429 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2511 basis was - 370 yuan, down 1,090 yuan from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,456 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Zimbabwe is building a lithium sulfate plant [12][13] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,610 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 392,702 lots, down 77,321 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2511 contract was 51,280 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - On September 25, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises to discuss policies for high - quality development [15] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]

Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound height is limited, recommend light - position trading during the holiday [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upside space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating, recommend avoiding risks during the long holiday [2][13]. - Soybean: Oscillating [2][12]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2][15]. - Sugar: Narrow - range consolidation [2][20]. - Cotton: Both domestic and international cotton futures are weak [2][25]. - Eggs: Light - position trading during the holiday [2][29]. - Pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared [2][31]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,234 yuan/ton (-0.02%), and night - session was 9,214 yuan/ton (-0.22%); soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,150 yuan/ton (-0.15%), and night - session was 8,120 yuan/ton (-0.37%) [5]. - **News**: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline to about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports. MPOB urges the government to increase the 2026 appropriation for oil palm replanting to 280 million ringgit [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both - 1 [10]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE Soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3938 yuan/ton (-0.05%), and night - session was 3926 yuan/ton (-0.13%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 2933 yuan/ton (-0.54%), and night - session was 2931 yuan/ton (-0.20%) [12]. - **News**: On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to expected high yields in the US and insufficient Chinese demand [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean and soybean meal trend intensities are both 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton (-0.78%), and night - session was 2,151 yuan/ton (-0.37%); C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,135 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,128 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [15]. - **News**: Northern corn port - collection prices are 2220 - 2240 yuan/ton, and container port - collection prices for new grain are 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price is 15.92 cents/pound (0.09), mainstream spot price is 5830 yuan/ton (-10), and futures main - contract price is 5479 yuan/ton (1) [20]. - **News**: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,350 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and night - session was 13245 yuan/ton (-0.79%); ICE US cotton 12 was 65.4 cents/pound (-1.40%) [25]. - **News**: The new - cotton pre - sale quotes in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase, and the cotton yarn market's trading atmosphere is average [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 2,918 yuan/500 kg (-1.15%), and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,352 yuan/500 kg (-0.24%) [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price is 12430 yuan/ton (-150), Sichuan's is 11900 yuan/ton (-200), and Guangdong's is 12710 yuan/ton (-200) [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts is 8,600 yuan/ton (+100), PK510's closing price is 7,800 yuan/ton (0.21%), and PK511's is 7,822 yuan/ton (0.49%) [36]. - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions are generally stable, affected by weather and supply [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [40].

2025 年 9 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：开工厂库双回落 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,466 | 0.46% | 3,433 | -0.95% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,418 | 0.18% | 3,386 | -0.94% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 152,121 | (57,958) | 132,865 | (25,763) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 54,909 | (14,617) | 91,697 | (435) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 50650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 ...

2025 年 9 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 燃料油趋势强度：0；低硫燃料油趋势强度：0 燃料油：夜盘冲高回跌，价格重心维持高位 低硫燃料油：短线转弱，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2. 994 | -0. 20% | | 3.025 | 1. 14% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 3. 031 | 1. 14% | | 3.057 | 1.83% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3, 450 | 0. 00% | | 3, 450 | 0.00% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3. 480 | 0. 00% | | 3.482 | 0. 35% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached as of September 30, 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,430 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 12,710 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live - hog 2511 is 12,295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2601 is 12,785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2603 is 12,450 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2511 is 58,720 lots, an increase of 19,978 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 75,453 lots, a decrease of 9,566 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 37,054 lots, an increase of 10,127 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 76,421 lots, an increase of 4,799 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2603 is 14,327 lots, an increase of 6,995 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 52,605 lots, an increase of 1,743 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2511 is 135 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2601 is - 355 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2603 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 11 - 1 is - 490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 1 - 3 is 335 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

2025年09月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，推升价格 | 4 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 6 | | 铅：库存下降，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续偏弱 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 品 研 究 期货研究 商 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：震荡调整 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数 ...