动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0023682 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 日期： 2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 动力煤观点：短期市场弱调整，关注异常天气影响 ◼ 基本面： （1）供应：目前煤矿正常生产，供应平稳，后续随着春节临近部分煤矿陆续放假、供应存收缩预期。截至1月14日本周160家煤矿产能利用率为 90.32%（前值88.24%），产量为1645.7万吨（前值1607万吨）。预计随着我国煤炭供需形势的转变，叠加市场对于"减量保价"共识的达成， 2026年煤炭产能增量或收窄。2025年11月份，全国原煤产量42679.3万吨，同比-0.5%，环比+4.93%；1-11月全国原煤产量累计440164.7万吨， 同比 1.4%；1-11月进口煤及褐煤43168万吨，同比增长-12%。 （2）需求：未来10天我国冷空气势力增强，日耗或得到提振。本周电厂日耗回落，市场仅维持零星采购，目前电厂库存偏高，关注节前下游采 购补库 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures market showed a slight recovery this week, with the TL contract facing pressure above the MA20. In the medium term, due to reasons such as the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, changes in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and the inability to falsify the 15th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view remains that of a sideways and slightly bearish trend. The short - term is resilient, and the long - term may see a slight recovery recently, but the TL contract has pressure above the 20 - day moving average. It is recommended to conduct 30 - 10 spread compression trading and long substitution in the short term, and continue to recommend hedging on rallies, long - term spread trading, and cash - and - carry arbitrage in the medium term [1][4][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the Treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of oscillating downward, recovered on Thursday, and closed down overall after wide - range oscillations during Friday's session. On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. The central bank may have considered the relatively small spillover depreciation pressure on CNY, the limited need to stimulate exports through full - scale interest rate cuts, and the need to support the real economy and reduce bank interest - paying costs. After the structural interest rate cut, the market sentiment fluctuated briefly, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield rebounded after a short - term decline of about 2BP. It is expected that there may be 1 - 2 full - scale interest rate cuts in 2026, each with a 10BP reduction, and a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut if the RMB exchange rate stabilizes. The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term, and the A - share market is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in 2026 [3][4] - The market showed a differentiated pattern this week, with the short - term resilience strengthening and the long - term recovery momentum being weak. Policy expectations and capital - level fluctuations dominated the market sentiment [6] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided 3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 2.62%, foreign capital increased by 0.77%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 0.46%. In terms of the weekly change, private funds increased by 5.53%, foreign capital increased by 7.13%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 4.85% [11]

GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：地缘风险或有反复， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 暂时观望 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 观点综述 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2026年1月18日 2 01 本周原油观点：地缘风险或有反复，暂 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17000-17600元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 | 【行情回顾】 | | | | | 【期现价差变化】 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上周收盘价 | 周涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | 上周五 | 上上周五 | 变 动 | | 沪铅主力 | 17475 | 0 69% . | 17230 | -1 40% . | LME铅升贴水 | -44 18 . | -44 05 . | -0 13 . | | LmeS-铅3 | 2005 5 . | -2 00% . | - | - | 保税区铅溢价 | 90 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the marginal changes in the fundamentals were relatively small [18] Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 760 yuan/cubic meter, a 30 yuan/cubic meter increase from the previous week. The price difference between the two regions was -20 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4] Supply - As of January 11, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in January, all of which were headed to mainland China. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in January and 0 in February, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in January [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 16, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 20,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and at Taicang Port was 13,800 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.7493 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [6][12] Market Trends - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The monthly spread (negative value) narrowed slightly this week. The 03-05 monthly spread was -11.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03-07 monthly spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05-07 monthly spread was -11 yuan/cubic meter [18] Other - As of the week of January 17, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 1,532.00 points, a decrease of 152 points (-9.24%) from the previous week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was recorded at 589 points, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,647.39 points [6][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 6.966, a 0.54% decrease from the previous week, while the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.54% to 1.741 [6][55]

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月18日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：美联储降息预期减弱和库存增加施压价格，但长期基本面良好 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：96000-110000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 COMEX和LME价差稍有回升至90美元/吨左右 2 全球主要地区铜库存增加 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bullish sentiment in the market first soared and then declined. The price of Shanghai aluminum strengthened and then fell, driving the price of casting aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level, once reaching a high of 23,940 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, during the Spring Festival stockpiling period of recycled aluminum enterprises, the demand for scrap aluminum increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials remained tight. However, the high price motivated traders to increase their shipment enthusiasm, leading to an increase in market liquidity. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry this week was stable at 58%. Due to repeated regional environmental protection restrictions and the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices, the subsequent operating rate may continue to weaken. In terms of demand, downstream die - casting enterprises showed strong fear of high prices, and enterprise orders declined significantly. Overall, with high raw material prices and the maintenance of the seasonal off - peak demand, the price of casting aluminum alloy may maintain high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the overall sentiment changes in the non - ferrous market [6]. - As of January 16, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.32 million tons from the previous week to 12.95 million tons, with a high level of visible inventory. From January 1 to 11, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a 42% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. The central economic work conference in 2026 will optimize the "two new" policies, with a more precise subsidy method and different subsidy intensities for different price - range models, benefiting mid - to - high - end cars more [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction End - Volume and Price - Showed the price difference curves of AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03, as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest trends of casting aluminum alloy [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2601.shf and AD2602.shf contracts on January 16, 2026, the spread was 100 yuan/ton. The fixed cost was 16.05 yuan/ton, mainly including the value - added tax of the spread. The floating cost was 90.47 yuan/ton, including storage fees and capital costs. The total cost was 107 yuan/ton [12] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual market spot price fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking January 16, 2026 as an example, the spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton. After calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost was 23,652 yuan/ton [14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][21] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and the output and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also presented, along with their regional proportion data [32][37][42] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss state. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the social inventory has slightly increased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy has opened [48][53][58] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - In the terminal consumption market, fuel - powered vehicles have entered the year - end sales rush stage, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption market. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances are also provided, along with the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [65][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The volatility of zinc has increased, and the bullish sentiment has risen and then fallen, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Supply - side disturbances have increased. Geopolitical risks in Iran and heavy rain in Australia have affected the stability of zinc ore supply. The TC upward space this year may be lower than last year, and zinc prices have a certain upward elasticity. In the short - term, if the capital rotation trading of non - ferrous metals ends, zinc prices may have a phased adjustment, but the downside space is relatively limited. Pay attention to mid - term opportunities to try long on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,750, with a weekly increase of 3.25%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,405, with a night - session decline of 1.39%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,207.5, with a weekly increase of 1.86% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 368,615, an increase of 225,388 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 142,274, an increase of 65,641. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,389, an increase of 5,157, and the open interest was 228,263, a decrease of 5,388 [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 5,316 to 33,558, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,459 to 76,311, social inventory decreased by 100 to 118,400, LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 to 106,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have increased, while zinc ingot visible inventories have remained stable [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical low. Mine enterprise profits have recovered and are at a historical high, smelting profits have recovered but are still at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable and are at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The smelting operating rate has continued to decline, and the downstream operating rate is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate, refined zinc, galvanized, die - cast zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have all declined [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium has fluctuated and declined. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with Singapore's remaining stable, Antwerp's rising, and LME CASH - 3M falling from a high and turning to a C structure [18][23]. - **Price Spread**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [25]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, the total LME inventory has remained relatively stable, the注销仓单 ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low, the bonded area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [30][36][38]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period in history [39]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has remained stable. The arrival volume of zinc ore is at a medium level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has increased [42][43]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter's finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [49][50]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the waste steel consumption of 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide is provided [53][54][55][56]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly downstream operating rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history [63]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [74]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Information on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, power prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries is provided [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term EB will experience high - level fluctuations. There is a situation of weak pure benzene and strong styrene, with the price difference remaining at a high level. The short - term styrene export has continuously exceeded expectations, and the downstream restocking cycle has begun, leading to a rapid market rebound, which will mainly be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [3][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Pure benzene domestic supply - In December, 110,000 tons of pure benzene production capacity were under maintenance, and the maintenance in January remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Major plants with large - scale maintenance include Sinochem Quanzhou, LIDONG, and Zhejiang Petrochemical. Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production loads after solving quota issues to make up for part of the production losses. Attention should be paid to the new pure benzene output brought by the new production of BASF Zhanjiang in January [3][68]. Pure benzene import supply - Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume has decreased. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff still exists, but the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, which is estimated to affect 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [3][68]. Demand Styrene demand - In December, 85,000 tons of styrene production capacity were under maintenance, and in January, 65,000 tons were under maintenance. After December, the plant operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the incremental output brought by the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant. The demand for the downstream 3S of styrene exceeded expectations. After the market rose rapidly last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle, and home appliance factories are preparing for the post - Spring Festival boom, stimulating the restocking process of the industrial chain [3][68]. Caprolactam demand - The negative feedback of CPL has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. It is estimated that 40,000 tons of production capacity were under maintenance in December, and 60,000 tons will be under maintenance in January, mainly at Fujian Yongrong, Tianchen, Hualu Hengsheng, and Xuyang Cangzhou. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plants [3][68]. Phenol demand - The operation rate of phenol is gradually rising. In December, 30,000 tons of production capacity were under maintenance, and in January, 10,000 tons were under maintenance. The commissioning of the new Shandong Ruilin plant may be postponed [3][68]. Aniline demand - In December, 70,000 tons of aniline production capacity were under maintenance, mainly at Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai Covestro, and Chongqing BASF, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation rate in January may be lower than expected [3][68]. Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton. EB processing fee: The profit will expand in the short term [3][68]. Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling BZ on rallies. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the reverse spread of EB02 - 03. - Inter - variety: Take short - term profit in PX - BZ [3][68].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the view on natural rubber is that it will fluctuate weakly. Overseas raw material prices have briefly corrected, weakening cost support and dampening the market's bullish sentiment. The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of natural rubber remains unchanged, and the downstream production - sales pressure persists. With the commodity market under pressure, rubber prices may decline further in the short term. However, the amount of warehouse receipts may be relatively small this year, limiting the downside space. [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached new historical highs, ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles exceeded 16 million units, and the domestic market share of new - energy vehicles exceeded 50%. The export of automobiles exceeded 7 million units, with new - energy vehicle exports reaching 2.615 million units, doubling year - on - year. In 2026, China's automobile industry will continue to pursue high - quality development. [5] - In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 16.7% year - on - year to 8.525 million tons. [6] - In 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 12.3% year - on - year to 343,762 tons, but domestic latex consumption increased by 146% to 124,231 tons. [7] 3.2 Market Trends - This week, most domestic and foreign rubber futures prices declined, with NR leading the decline and Japanese rubber rising. On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,835 yuan/ton, 12,830 yuan/ton, 181.90 cents/kg, and 349.10 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 1.22%, - 1.46%, - 1.03%, and 1.01% respectively. [9][11] 3.3 Price Spreads - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: On January 16, 2026, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 28.79% and a year - on - year increase of 69.08%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20.00% and a year - on - year increase of 115.79%. [15] - **Other Spreads**: Spreads such as RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased, while the spread of RU - BR increased. The import rubber market price fluctuated this week, and the spot price declined following the futures market at the end of the week. The spreads of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber and 3L to Thai mixed rubber widened. [16][19][21] - **Substitute Prices**: This week, the price of butadiene continued to rise. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate remained high, and the supply pressure restricted the upward movement of the negotiation price center. The mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. The spot price gradually rose, but the trading performance was poor. [26] 3.4 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of both RU and NR decreased. On January 16, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 21.50 and 20.35 respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5.33% and 2.76% respectively. The settled funds of RU and NR were 6.642 billion yuan and 2.675 billion yuan respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 3.64% and 6.23% respectively. [29][31] 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - **Weather in Producing Areas**: The rainy seasons in southern and northeastern Thailand, as well as in Hainan and Yunnan in China, have basically ended. [34][36] - **Raw Material Prices**: As the domestic producing areas enter the end of the tapping season, raw material prices rose due to restocking by overseas factories and improved EU orders but declined at the end of the week. [38] - **Raw Material Spreads**: The spread between Thai glue and cup lump widened. The domestic producing areas have basically stopped tapping, and price updates have been suspended. [43] - **Upstream Processing Profits**: The processing profits of Thai rubber were divided. The processing profit of standard rubber increased, while the profits of smoked sheet rubber and concentrated latex decreased. [44] - **Export Data**: In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with latex exports increasing slightly. In December 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month, but the exports to China decreased significantly. In November 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month. In December 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased month - on - month, and the exports to China increased significantly. [54][60][66][68] - **Rubber Imports**: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76%. [72] 3.5.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: This week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the output increased significantly compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to the increase in foreign trade orders, while some all - steel tire enterprises controlled production to limit inventory growth, restricting the increase in all - steel tire capacity utilization. Both all - steel and semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory. [75] - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In November 2025, tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. In December 2025, passenger - car sales decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. [82] - **Highway Freight Turnover**: In November 2025, the highway freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month. [83] 3.5.3 Inventory - **Spot Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate. The dark - colored rubber inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate. On January 9, 2026, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 835,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.55%; the light - colored rubber inventory was 421,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%; and the total social inventory was 1.2568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.97%. [89][90] - **Futures Inventory**: On January 16, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.73%; the futures - spot inventory was 122,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%. The futures inventory of 20 - rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 56,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the futures - spot inventory was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. [92] 3.6 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: As of Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 58 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons or 1.9%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 835,000 tons, an increase of 2.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 421,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. Overseas raw material prices showed a downward trend, weakening cost support. [95] - **Demand**: Recently, the operation of enterprise equipment has varied. Some all - steel tire enterprises have increased shipment pressure and controlled production to manage inventory. Some semi - steel tire enterprises, supported by foreign trade orders, have increased their production to a high level. Currently, enterprises are in the inventory - building stage, and inventory continues to increase. [95] - **Viewpoint**: The short - term correction of overseas raw material prices has weakened cost support and dampened the market's bullish sentiment. The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of natural rubber remains unchanged, and the downstream production - sales pressure persists. With the commodity market under pressure, rubber prices may decline further in the short term. However, the amount of warehouse receipts may be relatively small this year, limiting the downside space. [95] - **Valuation**: On Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,090 yuan/ton, a week - on - week contraction of 55 yuan/ton. The spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 905 yuan/ton, a week - on - week contraction of 90 yuan/ton. [95] - **Strategy**: 1) For unilateral trading, adopt a range - trading approach. The market may fluctuate weakly, but the downside space is limited. 2) For inter - delivery spread trading, observe. 3) For inter - commodity spread trading, go long on RU and short on NR, which may differ from the seasonal spread trend in previous years. [95]