Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has short - term upside risks and medium - term downside pressures, suggesting holding a combination of short positions at high prices and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Precious metals are strong, with market focus on the Fed meeting's rate - cut amplitude and Powell's speech [2] - Copper, aluminum, and related alloys show different trends. For example, copper may see short - term price increases, while aluminum awaits demand feedback in the peak season [3][4][5] - Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as zinc having potential cross - market arbitrage opportunities [7] Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical premiums support the oil market, but medium - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, with surpluses of 164万桶/天 in 2025 and 267万桶/天 in 2026 [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year, and tonight's US retail sales data is to be watched [2] - **Copper**: Driven by Sino - US consultations and precious metal trends, short - term Shanghai copper may rise to 8.2 - 8.25 million yuan, and long positions can take profits [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream start - up is seasonally increasing, and short - term resistance at the March high is to be tested [4] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand situations, such as zinc's tight overseas spot and potential cross - market arbitrage, and lead's supply reduction and resistance at 17,300 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 2: Industrial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Different industrial products like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc. have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by supply - demand, policies, and cost [12][13] Summary by Category - **Industrial Silicon**: Boosted by coal - related news, but fundamental improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract fluctuates between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and news from this week's industry self - discipline meeting is to be watched [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by cost and market sentiment, but demand improvement needs attention [14] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by supply increase and demand support from high - level molten iron [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are affected by "anti - involution" policies, with high volatility in the short term [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies. For example, some products' prices are expected to be stable or fluctuate, while others may face supply or demand pressures [20][21] Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has declined, and high - sulfur may be stronger than low - sulfur in the short term due to geopolitical risks [20] - **Asphalt**: Expected to have short - term slowdown in shipments, but demand has room for improvement, and inventory is decreasing [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market is strong, and the short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong [22] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as urea's supply - demand balance and PVC's high - supply, low - demand situation [23][28] Group 4: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors like supply - demand, policies, and international trade. For example, soybean and related products' prices are affected by the Sino - US trade negotiation [35] Summary by Category - **Soybean and Related Products**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may cause soybean meal to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for domestic soybean meal [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: Consider buying soybean and palm oils at low prices in the long term, but pay attention to risk control [36] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own supply - demand and price trends, such as corn's price differentiation and egg's potential long - term opportunities [39][41] Group 5: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Financial products like stock index futures and treasury bond futures have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by macro - economic factors and policies [47][48] Summary by Category - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference is expected to continue, and it is recommended to allocate positions to different styles and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price increase is expanding, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the average prices, price changes, and spot premium/discounts of various non - ferrous metals on September 15, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium [1]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80,940 with a rise of 185, and SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 50 with a fall of 15 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,950 with a fall of 70, and SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is - 50 with a fall of 10; Alumina (Shanxi) price is 3,045 with a fall of 5, and Australian alumina FOB average price is 340 with no change [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 with a rise of 175, and SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 70 with no change; Recycled refined lead average price is 16,900 with a rise of 150, and the refined - scrap price difference is 50 with a rise of 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,230 with no change, and SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 15 with a fall of 5 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 273,300 with a fall of 600, and SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 300 with a rise of 200; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 261,300 with a fall of 600, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.61% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 122,150 with a rise of 100, and 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 300 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 124,150 with a rise of 150, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,300 with a rise of 50 [1]. Silicon - The average price of Tongyang 553 (Xinjiang) plus 800, considering regional discount + 200 and quality impurity removal, is 9,650 with a rise of 50, and 553 spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 950 with a rise of 1,050; 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,650, polycrystalline silicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polycrystalline silicon material average price is 51.55 [1]. Lithium - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,450 with no change, and battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 190 with a fall of 1,340; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,200, and the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 with no change [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as new device commissioning, seasonal demand, and inventory changes [2][3][5]. - In the short - term, market sentiment is mixed, with some products having potential for improvement and others being under pressure. Long - term trends are also influenced by factors like overseas policies and new capacity additions [6][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose with market lacking news guidance and downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and enterprise shipment differentiation suppressing prices [2]. - Polyolefin futures fell. PE downstream has a peak season for agricultural film, with increased purchasing, but other industries have limited demand. PP supply may decrease due to maintenance, but downstream procurement is restricted by poor profits and low confidence [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated around 6000 yuan/ton. Supply and demand may improve in Q3, but currently downstream profitability, import expectations, and oil prices are dragging down the price [3]. - Styrene futures fell. Supply pressure eased as the operating rate declined, and downstream demand was strong. Port inventory decreased with an upward - moving spot price [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices were in a cross - star pattern. PTA was driven by raw materials, with inventory decreasing but processing margins and basis weakening. Terminal demand was improving, but polyester yarn inventory was high and profit was poor [5]. - Ethylene glycol was pressured by new device news. Domestic production decreased slightly, and port inventory continued to decline [5]. - Short fiber supply and demand were stable, with prices following costs. It was recommended to go long on the near - month contract before the National Day [5]. - Bottle chip downstream had rigid demand, with basis and processing margins rebounding slightly, but long - term over - capacity was a pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rebounded. Coastal demand increased, and domestic device operating rates decreased. However, high inventory limited the market's upside potential, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [6]. - Urea futures rebounded. Supply was sufficient, and demand from both industry and agriculture improved. The market remained in a supply - demand - loose situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC was slightly stronger. It had a high - supply, low - demand, and high - inventory pattern, and new production in September increased supply pressure [7]. - Caustic soda fluctuated. The industry's inventory decreased, but supply pressure remained due to high profits, and prices were expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was slightly stronger. Inventory decreased, and supply was high. In the short - term, it was at a low valuation, and long - term supply was in surplus [8]. - Glass was stronger. Inventory decreased, and processing orders improved. It was at a low valuation and expected to follow macro - sentiment [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is experiencing oscillations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, and the prospect of a cease - fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is fading. US inflation data is in line with market expectations, and the combination of moderate inflation and a cooling labor market has strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The international gold price has confirmed a breakthrough of the upper limit of the four - month oscillation range, and silver has also opened up upward space. It is recommended to maintain long - position participation. However, if the interest rate cut meets expectations, be vigilant against a phased adjustment [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Geopolitical Situation - Israel conducted an air strike on the capital of Qatar last week, targeting senior Hamas leaders, and the Middle East geopolitical situation remains tense. Trump reiterated his willingness to impose sanctions on Russia and urged other countries to follow suit, making the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement seem more distant. Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel regarding a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [1][2] Economic Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.7%. The month - on - month increase was 0.4%, slightly higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%. The core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with expectations and the previous value. After the non - farm payrolls showed a cooling labor market, the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years [1] Market Expectations - The combination of moderate inflation and a cooling labor market has further strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The market has almost fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts within the year. This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude and Powell's speech for guidance on the future path. If the interest rate cut meets expectations, beware of a phased "buy the rumor, sell the news" adjustment [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as economic indicators, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation. Spot copper rose to 80,940 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong on the last trading day being 80 and 20 yuan respectively. The refined - scrap price difference widened to 2,000 yuan. SMM copper social inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 154,200 tons over the weekend. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium fluctuations of the call option with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected today, with the spot discount widening in various regions. The downstream start - up continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with oversupply and falling prices [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 50,500 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $30.17 per ton. London zinc rebounded to the high - level range at the beginning of the year. Shanghai zinc is still dragged down by weak fundamentals and fluctuates narrowly above 22,000 yuan. The import loss of zinc compared to the spot exceeds 3,300 yuan per ton, and the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening [3] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a low level. The short - covering retreat was triggered by the speculation of interest - rate cut expectations. The upstream price support of nickel has rebounded slightly, and the price level of the nickel industry chain has been pushed up. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons [6] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a positive line oscillation, with the spot tin price dropping to 273,300 yuan. Overseas, although the positions are still relatively concentrated, the position - volume risk has decreased. Domestic leading production capacity is under maintenance. Technically, there is resistance at 275,000 yuan for the domestic market and $35,000 for the overseas market. It is not recommended to chase long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. The price of lithium carbonate has a low - level support, and a short - term bullish view is taken [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was boosted by coal - related news, reaching 9,000 yuan per ton during the day and then falling back to close at 8,800 yuan per ton. In September, the supply - side output is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, while the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are expected to have a slight decline in output. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile operation [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon closed slightly down at 53,500 yuan per ton. Only a few enterprises have implemented production cuts, and the reduction range is limited. The main contract of polysilicon can be expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan per ton [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending on September 12, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.08%, -0.33%, and 0.02% respectively. The public - fund market showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds, with enhanced strategy indices performing strongly, and precious - metal ETFs having rising returns while energy - chemical ETFs' returns declined [3]. - All the five - style indices of CITIC rose last week, with the growth style leading in returns. The financial style declined in relative strength, while the stability and growth styles had large increases in indicator momentum. Financial - style funds had better excess performance, and the deviation of products from growth and financial styles increased marginally [3]. - The overall market congestion decreased slightly this week, and the consumer style remained in a historically high - congestion range. In the neutral strategy, the stock - index basis fluctuated and recovered, and the ETF premium - rate index rose and then fell. The latest signal indicated a short - term decline risk for the IF basis [3]. - The momentum - reversal factor had better return performance with a weekly excess return of 2.00%, and the leverage factor's excess return continued to decline. The valuation and profit factors strengthened month - on - month in terms of winning rate. The factor cross - section rotation speed increased month - on - month and was in the low - to - middle historical range [3]. - According to the latest score of the style - timing model, the consumer and growth styles rebounded slightly this week, and the current signal favored the stability style. The style - timing strategy's return last week was 1.44%, with an excess return of - 0.41% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - **Overall Market Index**: As of the week ending on September 12, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.08%, -0.33%, and 0.02% respectively [3]. - **Public - Fund Market**: The public - fund market showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds. Enhanced strategy indices performed strongly with a weekly return of 2.17%. Precious - metal ETFs' returns continued to rise (gold ETF net value increased by 2.31%), while energy - chemical ETFs' returns continued to decline [3]. Style Analysis - **CITIC Five - Style Indices**: All five - style indices rose last week, with the growth style leading in returns. The financial style declined in relative strength, and the stability and growth styles had large increases in indicator momentum [3]. - **Fund Style**: Financial - style funds had a weekly excess return of 0.77%. The deviation of products from growth and financial styles increased marginally. The overall market congestion decreased slightly this week, and the consumer style remained in a historically high - congestion range [3]. Neutral Strategy - **Stock - Index Basis**: The stock - index basis (futures - spot) fluctuated and recovered. Some contracts of IH and IF were slightly at a premium, and the basis was within one - standard - deviation range of the one - month average. The ETF premium - rate index rose and then fell to the middle - level range of the past month, and the latest signal indicated a short - term decline risk for the IF basis [3]. Barra Factor - **Factor Return**: The momentum - reversal factor had a weekly excess return of 2.00%, and the leverage factor's excess return continued to decline. The valuation and profit factors strengthened month - on - month in terms of winning rate [3]. - **Factor Rotation**: The factor cross - section rotation speed increased month - on - month and was in the low - to - middle historical range [3]. Style - Timing Model - **Style Score**: The consumer and growth styles rebounded slightly this week, and the current signal favored the stability style [3]. - **Strategy Return**: The style - timing strategy's return last week was 1.44%, with an excess return of - 0.41% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the commodity industry. Core Viewpoint - In the context of positive liquidity, the commodity market may operate stably in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances persist, but the expectation of loose liquidity and peak demand season provides support [1]. Market Review Overall Market - Last week, the rise - fall ratio of the commodity market was basically flat compared to the previous week. The precious metals sector led the gain with 2.34%, followed by the non - ferrous metals with 0.35%. The energy - chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors declined by 1.26%, 0.65%, and 0.01% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were gold, silver, and aluminum with increases of 2.28%, 2.27%, and 2.05% respectively. The top - losers were natural rubber, palm oil, and asphalt, dropping 3.09%, 2.41%, and 2.01% respectively [1][5]. - The decline of the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to narrow. Most sectors saw a decrease in volatility. The overall market scale increased, with most of the capital inflow coming from the precious metals sector, while the scale of the black and agricultural products sectors decreased slightly [1]. Sub - sectors - **Precious Metals**: The increase in weekly initial jobless claims and cooling inflation data led the market to fully price in three Fed rate cuts this year. However, the sector showed signs of fatigue after continuous rises. Geopolitical disturbances may amplify short - term fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: A weaker dollar and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season provided support. Although the inventory inflection point was not clear, downstream consumption in the automotive and power industries was strong, and the sector may operate stably in the short term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. Blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot metal output increased significantly. However, low steel mill profits may limit further复产. The raw material market was volatile, and the cost increase supported the industry chain, but price contradictions intensified after the cost rebound [2]. - **Energy**: The IEA's September oil market report showed that the upward adjustment of the supply forecast was greater than that of the demand, increasing the market surplus. Geopolitical factors supported oil prices in the short term, but the mid - term surplus limited the geopolitical premium [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester, terminal weaving orders increased, and the textile and dyeing industry's operating rate rose slightly. However, high inventory and poor profits of polyester filaments led to slow load increases. The industry chain's valuation may recover relative to oil prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's September supply - demand report was neutral to bearish. U.S. soybeans rebounded after a brief correction and may continue to be strong in the short term. Palm oil was supported by the mid - term seasonal production cut cycle, long - term biodiesel policies, and aging trees, providing a floor for the oil market [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.3%. The total scale of gold ETFs increased by 1.36%, and the total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 1.41%. However, the trading volume of most gold ETFs decreased [35]. - The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.42%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 0.96%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 0.88%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81% [35][36].

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market is still switching between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, with limited rebound space each time. For precious metals, after continuous rises, the volatility intensifies, and caution is needed when chasing high. For most commodities, market trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators [2][3] Summaries by Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices rebounded, with Brent's November contract up 1.84% and SC's October contract down 1.39%. The trading strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Last week, FU warehouse receipts decreased by 6800 tons in total, giving some support to FU. The LU - FU spread continued to shrink, from 710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 550 yuan/ton [22] - **Asphalt**: On Friday, asphalt warehouse receipts increased by 3800 tons. The slowdown in shipment volume in early September is expected to have a short - term impact. Factory and social inventories are both decreasing, and the strength of the bottom support of asphalt cracking needs to be observed [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by the rebound of import costs. It is expected to run strongly against oil in the short term, but the follow - up rise is limited under the pressure of high warehouse receipts on the futures market [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With the moderate rise of the US CPI and the appearance of weak employment signals, the market has fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Precious metals are running strongly, but caution is needed when chasing high after continuous rises [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Last Friday, copper prices rose and then gave back some gains. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium of selling call options on the 2510 contract with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is running strongly, breaking through the 21,000 - yuan mark. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and it is expected to test the resistance at the March high in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the overseas supply is tight. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, driving up the LME zinc price and pulling up the domestic market. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The supply pressure is weakening due to the co - existence of refinery overhauls and restarts. The short - term resistance is around 17,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The upstream price support has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to view it as a low - level shock [10] - **Tin**: Last Friday, the prices of tin both at home and abroad increased. It is not recommended to chase high, and it is advisable to take profits on previous long positions [11] Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: Last week, the urea futures contract continued to fall. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the weak market is expected to continue [25] - **Methanol**: The port inventory of methanol has been increasing significantly. The market is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price is oscillating around 6000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation in the third quarter may improve, but the current price is weak [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure of polypropylene increases, and the demand recovery is slow. The demand for polyethylene fails to meet expectations in the peak season [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating narrowly, with high supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices, the prices of PX and PTA are weakening. The demand for terminals is improving, and the relative valuation of PX/PTA to oil may rise before the National Day [31] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA September supply - demand report is neutral to bearish. The market may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [37] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The USDA report is neutral to bearish. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed harvest is in progress. The price of rapeseed futures may rise slightly [39] - **Corn**: It is expected to oscillate strongly before and after the new grain starts to be sold, and then the Dalian corn futures may run weakly at the bottom [41] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating strongly. The USDA September supply - demand report is neutral. The domestic cotton production in Xinjiang is likely to be a bumper harvest [44] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is oscillating. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45] - **Apple**: The futures price rebounds, but the supply side lacks positive drivers. The futures price is expected to continue to fall in the short term [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw a differentiated trend in the market. The M1 - M2 gap continued to repair, and market confidence was boosted. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are rising in an oscillating manner. The reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Egg (★★★) [1] - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★★★), Live Pig (★★★) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market trends of various agricultural products are mainly volatile, and different products have different driving factors. Market participants need to pay attention to policy, weather, trade results, and other information. For some products, a low - buying strategy can be considered, while for others, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main domestic soybean futures contract rebounded from a low, basically recovering the decline in the first half of the week. The domestic soybean auction on Friday had poor results, with all 36,112 tons up for sale at a base price of 4,100/4,150 yuan/ton failing to sell. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the market is concerned about future supply pressure due to the expected good harvest this year. Policy and new - crop yield performance should be continuously monitored [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 4, the net export sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 541,000 tons, down from 818,000 tons the previous week. As of September 9, about 22% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The USDA will release a September supply - demand report on the early morning of September 13. The market expects a reduction in soybean yield, which is bullish for US soybeans. The short - term market may continue to be volatile and bullish, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the market expects a decline in US soybean yield, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices are volatile. In the medium term, palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US support industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees may have a bottom - supporting effect on soybean and palm oils. A low - buying strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products declined slightly. The market is waiting for the US agricultural supply - demand report. Canadian rapeseed harvesting is underway, and there is no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. Ukraine's tariff on oilseed exports may affect its exports to the EU. Canadian and Australian rapeseed may expand into the EU market, potentially stabilizing global rapeseed prices. Domestic rapeseed product demand is suppressed, and inventory reduction is slow. The price center of rapeseed futures may move slightly upward [6] Corn - Corn futures were volatile and bearish today. CGC imported about 190,000 tons of corn for auction, with a 34% transaction rate. Shandong's spot supply remains loose, while the spot price at Northeast ports is strong. New - crop corn may be delayed due to heavy rainfall in the Northeast. Corn prices may be volatile and bullish before the new - crop harvest, and Dalian corn futures may be bearish at the bottom after the harvest enthusiasm fades [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures were volatile and adjusted, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were stable and slightly bullish. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is high due to the continuous realization of previous production capacity. The market is waiting for the results of the live pig production capacity regulation symposium on September 17. The current main - contract futures price has fallen close to the initial level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8] Egg - Egg spot prices continued to rise, while distant - month futures contracts declined significantly, and near - month contracts were supported by the rising spot price. The market is in a seasonal rebound window. The industry has a high inventory problem, and capacity reduction is still needed. The pressure of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of this round of production capacity is expected to be reached in the fourth quarter. A long - position strategy can be considered for distant - month contracts next year, and attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds from near - month contracts [9]