Report Information - Report Title: "2025 August Naphtha Shipping Schedule Monthly Report" [2] - Release Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Group: Chemical Group of Guotou Futures Research Institute [2] - Researchers: Pang Chunyan (Z0011355), Wang Xueyi (F03125010) [2] Market Overview - In August, Russia's shipment volume was 4.8346 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 45.54%; the Middle East's shipment volume was 39.3065 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 18.78%; the US loading volume was 2.7235 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%. The total shipment volume decreased by 13.0841 million barrels compared to the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 21.83% [3]. - The region with the highest total arrival volume among major regions was Northeast Asia, with an arrival volume of 35.1026 million barrels. China's naphtha arrival volume last month was 13.743 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.6575 million barrels. The import from the Middle East accounted for the highest proportion at 40.06%, with a slight month - on - month increase. The import proportions from Northeast Asia and Russia also increased, while the imports from North America, South Asia, the Mediterranean, and North Africa decreased [3]. Shipment and Arrival Data | Region | July 2025 | August 2025 | Jan - Aug Cumulative | Jan - Aug Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Russia Shipment | 8.877 million | 4.8346 million | 79.641 million | - 32.17% | | Middle East Shipment | 48.3929 million | 39.3065 million | 344.3975 million | - 6.75% | | US Shipment | 2.6788 million | 2.7235 million | 35.9367 million | - 35.07% | | Northeast Asia - China | 1.311 million | 1.4226 million | 10.4891 million | - 5.03% | | Middle East - China | 4.8728 million | 5.5048 million | 36.6762 million | 21.93% | | Russia - China | 0.9709 million | 3.0558 million | 11.0898 million | - 36.09% | | South Asia - China | 3.971 million | 2.4323 million | 12.8518 million | 335.77% | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week, with the intensity of black and energy - chemical factors declining and the differentiation between non - ferrous and black sectors expanding. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are precious metals and non - ferrous metals, while the weak sectors are energy and black sectors [2]. - The comprehensive signals of strategies for methanol, float glass, iron ore, lead, and aluminum are neutral this week, except for iron ore which is bearish [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week, with the intensity of black and energy - chemical factors falling and the differentiation between non - ferrous and black sectors widening. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals are strong, while energy and black sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum rebounded significantly, but the internal difference between gold and silver continued to expand. The position factor of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, with copper being strong. In the black sector, the momentum factor increased marginally, and iron ore was stronger than rebar in the term structure. In the energy - chemical sector, cross - sectional momentum was differentiated, with chemicals weaker than energy, and soda ash being weak. In the agricultural products sector, the positions of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while that of soybean meal increased, and one can short the oil - meal ratio [2]. Methanol - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.09%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.11%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol decreased (bullish on the supply side); the average start - up of traditional downstream industries continued to decline, but the start - up of the olefin industry rebounded (neutral on the demand side); ports continued to accumulate inventory significantly (bearish on the inventory side); overseas methanol spot market prices and import profits released bearish signals, and the bullish strength of the spread side weakened and turned neutral [3]. Float Glass - Last week, the returns of major category factors were flat month - on - month, and this week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral. Fundamentally, the start - up load of float glass was flat compared with last week (neutral on the supply side); the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities decreased slightly (neutral on the demand side); the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased (slightly bullish on the inventory side); the profit of pipeline - gas - made float glass declined, and the bullish strength of the profit side weakened and remained neutral; the spread factor in the Shenyang - Shahe area released a bearish signal (slightly bearish on the spread side) [6]. Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.21%, the spread factor decreased by 0.25%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.16%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains bearish. Fundamentally, the import volume in August increased, and the shipment volume from Brazil rose (bearish on the supply side); the consumption of sintering ore powder by steel mills increased, and the bullish feedback on the demand side strengthened, but the signal remained neutral; the inventory of major port iron ore continued to accumulate, and the bearish feedback on the inventory side strengthened, with the signal remaining neutral; the freight rate decreased, but the spot price increased, and the bearish feedback on the spread side weakened, with the signal remaining bearish [9]. Lead - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.27%, the inventory factor increased by 0.04%, the spread factor decreased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned neutral. Fundamentally, the profit of SMM recycled lead was repaired, and the supply - side signal turned from bearish to neutral; LME lead registered warehouses and inventory continued to reduce, and the inventory - side signal remained neutral; the LME near - far - month spread widened, and the spread - side signal turned from neutral to bullish [9]. Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened, and the spread factor decreased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. Fundamentally, the recovery speed of the supply side slowed down, and the supply - side signal turned from bearish to neutral [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, similar to pulp, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited market operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, representing a clear long - term trend and good investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★, also indicating a distinct long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose slightly today, while cotton spot sales were poor and mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a rush for purchasing by ginning mills, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginning mills. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macroeconomically, details of Sino - US trade negotiations should be watched. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices will likely remain volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices were weak. In the short term, Brazilian sugar production decreased year - on - year, reducing supply pressure. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio, although down significantly, remains at the upper end of the historical range, suggesting a potentially high sugar - making ratio in Brazil next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices declined. This year's sugar sales were fast, with lower inventory and less spot pressure. The market's focus has shifted to imports and the next season's production estimate. Syrup imports decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the 25/26 season's production is uncertain due to potential weather impacts [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and spot market expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October were high. However, the estimated apple production in the 25/26 quarter will change little year - on - year, lacking bullish drivers on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers are more optimistic, and the expected cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. Short - term futures prices are expected to decline, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR prices fluctuated sharply. The futures market sentiment was positive. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber price increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production season, with excessive rainfall in most Southeast Asian regions. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to rise. The domestic tire operating rate increased significantly last week, with a slight decrease in all - steel tire inventory and a slight increase in semi - steel tire inventory. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 586,600 tons, while the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose to 134,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory dropped to 256,000 tons. Overall, demand has recovered, with an increase in natural rubber supply and a decrease in inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber supply and an increase in inventory. Cost support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the Fed's interest - rate decision [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was adjusted upward, while the price of broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline. The inventory is still at a high level year - on - year. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. Macroeconomically, the CCPI in August was - 0.4% year - on - year and flat month - on - month, indicating weak inflation this year. The PPI showed marginal improvement, but the over - capacity in the mid - and downstream sectors hindered the price transmission. Currently, the domestic port inventory is high, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price remained stable. Last week, the timber arrival volume decreased significantly. The New Zealand radiata pine price in September dropped by $2. The domestic spot price is weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The high foreign price also makes it difficult for the domestic price to improve, increasing traders' pressure, and imports are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. Demand is entering the peak season, but the export volume has not increased significantly. During the off - season, the daily出库 volume exceeded 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth. The total log inventory is low, with less inventory pressure. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand has not yet started, and short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The trend is bearish in the medium term, with a short - term potential for supply fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, but the upside space is limited. The strategy of combining high - level short positions and call options can be continued [2]. - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil when the spread is low [3]. - Asphalt: The overall inventory level has decreased, and the futures price has bottom - support [4]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5]. Core Viewpoints - With the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory accumulation has accelerated. Considering the return of OPEC+ supply and the end of the summer peak season for oil demand, the market is expected to face greater loosening pressure in the fourth quarter, with the most oversupplied period in the first quarter of next year. The oversupply may reach 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly. The increase and subsequent decrease of warehouse receipts in East China are conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The overseas LPG market remains strong. Affected by typhoons in South China, imported goods have decreased, and high - level refinery operating rates can be maintained due to good chemical profit margins [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of the gasoline consumption peak season, global refined oil inventory has increased by 4.7% and crude oil inventory has decreased by 0.9% since the second half of the year, with an overall increase of 1.2% in total oil inventory, continuing the inventory - building speed in the second quarter [2]. - Considering the supply return of OPEC+ and the end of the oil demand peak season, the market's loosening pressure will increase marginally in the fourth quarter, and the most oversupplied period will be in the first quarter of next year, with oversupply of 1.64 million barrels per day this year and 2.67 million barrels per day next year [2]. - The medium - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, the upside space for price rebounds is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Since Russian refineries have been frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increase in domestic local refinery operating rates is beneficial to fuel oil feedstock demand [3]. - The increase in bunker fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuel, with an 11.6% year - on - year increase in high - sulfur bunker fuel loading volume in August and a 6% year - on - year increase in cumulative loading volume [3]. - FU and LU are expected to follow the crude oil trend, with short - term rebound risks and medium - term downward pressure. The low - sulfur supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to compress further [3]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that asphalt plant inventory has decreased slightly, and social inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons weekly, with the overall inventory level decreasing month - on - month [4]. - Warehouse receipts in East China increased by 4,000 tons last Friday and decreased by 2,700 tons in the first two trading days of this week, which is conducive to alleviating the downward pressure on spot prices in East China [4]. - The asphalt futures price has bottom - support [4]. LPG - The overseas LPG market remains strong, and the overall sentiment is positive due to strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks [5]. - Affected by typhoons in South China, imported LPG has decreased. Good chemical profit margins allow high - level refinery operating rates to be maintained [5]. - The short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the peak - season stocking market, and the near - month contract on the futures market is relatively strong [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bullish or bearish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. Core View of the Report - Overall, the market sentiment has improved due to the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept, and the cost side provides strong support for prices. Different products in the steel and related industries show different trends and investment opportunities, with short - term rebounds expected in some products and high - level oscillations in others [1]. Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand and production of rebar both declined, while inventories continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils significantly improved, production increased, and inventories slightly decreased. The rapid resumption of blast furnaces led to a substantial increase in molten iron production, alleviating the negative feedback pressure. However, poor profit per ton of steel restricts further resumption of production. From August data, domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports remain high. The steel futures market is expected to continue the rebound in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market showed a strong oscillation today. On the supply side, global shipments increased significantly month - on - month, and domestic arrivals decreased slightly to near the annual average level, with port inventories increasing slightly recently. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded slightly, molten iron production returned to a high level, and steel mills have pre - holiday inventory replenishment needs. With a warm domestic policy environment and strong expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas, the market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. Coke - Coke prices continued to rise during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, with decent profits and an increase in daily coking production. Coke inventories increased overall, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Due to high expectations of coking coal over - production inspections and "anti - involution", there are expectations of cost increases for coke. The coke futures market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term callback buying opportunities are recommended [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to rise during the day. Due to high expectations of over - production inspections and "anti - involution", prices quickly rebounded above 1200. Coking coal mine production slightly increased, spot auction transactions weakened, and terminal inventories slightly decreased. Total coking coal inventories increased month - on - month, and production - end inventories slightly increased. Coking coal production disruptions have basically recovered, with little impact on inventories. Buying on dips is recommended in the short term [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly during the day. On the demand side, molten iron production quickly recovered to over 240, with little impact from previous shutdowns. Weekly silicomanganese production continued to increase, and inventories did not accumulate. Manganese ore forward quotes increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted. Manganese ore inventories increased slowly. The silicomanganese futures market is expected to follow the rebound of the black - series products, but the upside is limited by fundamentals [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly during the day. On the demand side, molten iron production quickly recovered to over 240, with little impact from previous shutdowns. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month. Overall demand is acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, and market spot and futures demand was good, with on - balance - sheet inventories slightly decreasing. The ferrosilicon futures market is expected to follow the rebound of the black - series products, but the upside is limited by fundamentals [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals and market trends of various chemical products including olefins, pure benzene, polyester, coal - chemical, chlor - alkali, and soda ash - glass sectors, and provides insights on supply, demand, and price trends for each product [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main contract of propylene futures fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as some PDH units may restart, and demand may weaken as downstream units face cost pressure and some may stop production [2] - **Polyolefins**: The main contract of polyethylene futures rose and then fell. Polyethylene's demand from the agricultural film industry is strong, while other downstream industries have limited demand growth. Polypropylene's supply may decrease slightly due to increased maintenance, but downstream demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session price rebounded and then fell slightly in the morning. Supply and demand may improve in the third quarter, and the price has reached a low level [3] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene futures rose with a slow upward - moving center of gravity. Supply pressure has eased, and demand is supported by good downstream profits and increased downstream开工 [3] Polyester - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded at night and fell in the morning. PX production growth is limited, and PTA is de - stocking, but its price is driven by raw materials. Terminal demand is improving, but polyester filament inventory is high and profit is poor [5] - **Ethylene Glycol**: New device news is pressuring the far - month contract. Domestic production has decreased slightly, and port inventory is at a low level [5] - **Short Fiber**: Supply and demand are stable, and prices fluctuate with costs. There is a positive outlook before the National Day [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Downstream demand is for rigid needs, and the basis has rebounded, but long - term over - capacity is a pressure [5] Coal - chemical - **Methanol**: The near - month contract is weak. Short - term supply - demand gap may narrow, but high inventory is a long - term pressure [6] - **Urea**: The main contract lacks continuous upward momentum. Supply is sufficient, and demand is improving, but the market remains in a loose supply - demand situation [6] Chlor - alkali - **PVC**: Driven by macro expectations, it is running strongly. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high [7] - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating. Supply is fluctuating, and demand has different situations in different downstream industries, with a wide - range oscillation expected [7] Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: It is running strongly. Inventory has decreased, and short - term it may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations, with long - term over - supply [8] - **Glass**: It is running strongly. Inventory has decreased, and downstream replenishment sentiment has increased [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Egg (Far - month Contracts) [1][9] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Wait - and - See)**: Soybean, Corn, Pork, Egg (Near - month Contracts) [1][2][7][8][9] - **Rebound Potential**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1][4] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors affecting different agricultural products, including weather, trade relations, supply - demand dynamics, and policies. Short - term trends are often influenced by new product listings, policy guidance, and short - term weather changes, while long - term trends are related to supply - demand fundamentals and industrial policies [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in a low - level oscillation, waiting for new soybeans to enter the market. Market expects a good harvest. Imported soybeans' supply is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. Short - term focus is on new soybeans' policy and market performance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 14, US soybean's good - excellent rate was 63%, harvest rate was 5%, both in line with expectations, and the good - excellent rate continued to decline slightly. Future two - week weather in major US soybean - producing areas has less rain and higher temperature. Sino - US agricultural trade has not resumed. Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising, and soybean imports from July to November are over 10 million tons per month, with sufficient supply in Q4. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil continued to rebound. Domestically, traditional manufacturing upgrading makes industrial products strong; overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. In Malaysia, excessive rainfall in Sarawak may affect production, but export demand is weak, leading to high inventory. Overseas palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in Q4, and domestic demand is strong in Q4. Long - term biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US support prices, so consider buying on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil is strong while rapeseed meal is weak. As of September 12, coastal rapeseed inventory dropped to 74,000 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory also declined. Canadian statistics will release production data. Rapeseed futures prices are expected to oscillate with a slow upward trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to decline slightly after a week of decline. Spot prices are differentiated before the new corn harvest. US corn's good - excellent rate was 67% as of September 14, higher than expected, and harvest rate was 7%, lower than expected. Corn may oscillate before and after the new grain starts trading, and may be weak at the bottom after the new grain purchase enthusiasm fades [7] Pork - Pork spot prices hit a new low this year, and the futures market is weak. Supply pressure is high in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals are weak. Monitor the meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on pork production capacity regulation and currently adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] Egg - Egg futures increased in positions and declined, with far - month contracts being stronger. Spot prices are rising in the seasonal rebound window. The industry needs to further reduce production capacity. Newly - hatched chickens' pressure may decrease by the end of the year, and the production capacity is expected to reach its peak in Q4. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for H1 next year and focus on short - position funds' exit in near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: ななな - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: な☆☆ - Nickel: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: 立☆☆ - Tin: な☆☆ - Lithium Carbonate: な女女 - Industrial Silicon: ななな - Polysilicon: な女女 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides an analysis of the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and offers corresponding investment suggestions such as taking profit, short - term observation, and waiting for key position breakthroughs [2][3][4] Summaries by Metal Categories Copper - The intraday gain of Shanghai copper was recovered on Tuesday, and the spot copper price was raised to 81,120 yuan. After the contract change, the premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong were 75 yuan and 40 yuan respectively. To see further price increases, focus on capital interest. Currently, the trading volume and open interest are average. It is recommended to take profit on long positions opportunistically [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today, and the spot discounts in various regions remained stable, with a 50 - yuan discount in East China. Downstream开工 continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain at a low level this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday. Pay attention to the demand feedback during the peak season. Shanghai aluminum will test the resistance at the March high in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy slightly declined following Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remained at 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax policy will increase enterprise costs. There is room for the cross - variety price difference between spot and Shanghai aluminum to further narrow. The operating capacity of alumina has exceeded 97 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory has continued to rise, with warehouse receipts exceeding 150,000 tons. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot prices in various regions have continued to decline. The tender price of Xinjiang aluminum plants, converted to the northern ex - factory price, is lower than 2,950 yuan. The cash cost of production capacity in Shanxi and Henan still has a profit, and the support level for alumina is temporarily seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [3] Zinc - The characteristics of the consumption peak season are not obvious. The spot price continues to be at a discount to the futures price. Holders are active in delivering goods to warehouses, and downstream buyers only make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The SMM social inventory of zinc has risen to 160,600 tons, and Shanghai zinc is under pressure due to oversupply. The rebound was blocked at the 40 - day moving average. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 50,200 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium was $26.76 per ton. The overseas spot market is tight, and the fundamentals at home and abroad are highly differentiated. The Shanghai - London ratio is moving towards the direction of opening exports. The overseas market provides support for the domestic market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate narrowly above 22,000 yuan/ton. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The speculation of interest - rate cut expectations led to the reduction of short positions. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support has rebounded slightly, and the political situation turmoil has been further hyped up, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Shanghai nickel is affected by interest - rate cut expectations and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in open interest and closed lower. The spot tin price was reduced by 900 yuan to 272,400 yuan. Overnight, the LME 0 - 3 month spot discount widened to $132. The risk of overseas trading volume and open interest has decreased. The focus of the tin market has shifted to the domestic market. Wait for specific import and export data related to tin this week, and focus on tracking the import of concentrates and whether refined tin will turn into a net export in a single month. After taking profit on a small number of long positions earlier, temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. After the rapid price decline, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The middle - stream sector has become cautious. The transfer of cargo rights is mainly due to upstream producers selling to downstream buyers. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $810. The ore - end quotation has slightly adjusted, matching the lithium price fluctuation. The futures price of lithium carbonate shows support at a low level. Since the selling actions in the industry chain are basically completed, adopt a short - term bullish view. Subsequently, pay attention to the medium - and long - term directional guidance brought by external changes [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed higher with a decrease in open interest, approaching the resistance level of 9,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the price increase was partly driven by the rising coking coal price. From a policy perspective, the expectations of clearing out high - energy - consumption and inefficient production capacity and adjusting energy - consumption standards are continuously rising, but the actual implementation effect remains to be seen. Fundamentally, the spot price of industrial silicon was raised by 100 yuan/ton. The supply in September is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, and the production schedules of downstream silicone and polysilicon are expected to be slightly reduced month - on - month. The latest weekly social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly month - on - month. In summary, policy expectations provide some support to the market, but the room for fundamental improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the resistance at 9,000 yuan/ton [10] Polysilicon - The intraday high of polysilicon was 55,900 yuan/ton, and it closed at 53,600 yuan/ton, mainly because a polysilicon leading company announced a plan to raise funds for supply - side structural reform. On the spot side, the quotation of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was stable at 49,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. The production schedule in September decreased only slightly compared with last month. In late August, crystal - pulling factories made concentrated purchases due to the expected polysilicon production cut. Currently, the trading volume has slowed down, and the polysilicon inventory continues to rise. In summary, policy expectations provide a bottom - line support, and the capital flow rhythm changes rapidly. To break through the key resistance level, incremental policy news is still required. The short - term trend will remain volatile [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a slightly bullish trend but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals maintained their strength. The market is pricing in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Trump stated that Powell must cut interest rates more than expected. International gold prices have continuously hit new highs, and silver has also broken through the upside, with the upward trend expected to continue. It is recommended to hold long positions. This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate cut幅度 and Powell's speech for guidance on the future path. If the rate cut meets expectations, beware of a short - term "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment [1] Other Summaries Fed - related Events - On Monday, a US appeals court rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook can temporarily stay on the Fed during the interest - rate meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Trump administration is expected to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Also on Monday, Trump - nominated Fed governor candidate Milan received enough votes for confirmation in the US Senate and will participate in the Fed's interest - rate decision this week [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 4.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by October is 23.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 73.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.1% [2] Sino - US Trade Talks - Chinese Commerce Ministry official Li Chenggang said on the 15th that in the past two days, China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. The two sides actively implemented the consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state, gave full play to the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and had frank, in - depth and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [2]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with Brent 11 contract rising by 0.88%. Geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential US sanctions on Russia are increasing, providing short-term support to the oil market [1] - However, medium-term supply-demand pressures are expected to increase, with projected global oil market surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The most significant surplus pressure is anticipated in the first quarter of next year [1] - Global oil inventories have increased by 1.2% since the beginning of the second half of the year, confirming ongoing expectations of a loose balance sheet [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals maintained strength overnight, with market pricing indicating that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year. Focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's guidance on future paths [2] Copper Industry - Copper prices reached a new high for the year, driven by technical breakthroughs and active trading in LME special warehouses, supported by new US-China negotiations and rising precious metal prices [3] - Domestic industrial value added continued to slow down, with SMM copper social inventory increasing to 154,200 tons [3] Aluminum Industry - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation, with downstream operations continuing to seasonally recover, although aluminum ingot inventories remain low [4] - The market is closely monitoring seasonal demand feedback as the short-term price is expected to test resistance at the March high [4] Zinc Industry - LME zinc inventories are at a low of 50,000 tons, with tight overseas spot markets and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts driving a rebound in zinc prices [7] - Domestic zinc prices are under pressure from weak fundamentals, with a narrow fluctuation above 22,000 [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded with general trading activity, as total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, while downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons [11] - The market is cautiously optimistic about short-term price support, but attention is needed on external changes for long-term direction [11] Steel Industry - Steel prices continued to rebound, with rebar demand and production both declining, while hot-rolled demand significantly improved [14] - High furnace production has alleviated negative feedback pressure, but overall demand remains weak, with steel exports maintaining high levels [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose overnight, with global shipments significantly increasing, reaching a new weekly high for the year [15] - Domestic port arrivals slightly decreased, but terminal demand showed a slight recovery, supporting iron ore demand [15] Fertilizer Industry - Urea production has slightly increased due to the recovery of previously shut down facilities, maintaining a sufficient supply [23] - Industrial demand is recovering, with agricultural downstream showing signs of replenishment, particularly in the Northeast market [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations as US-China trade negotiations continue, with USDA's September supply and demand report showing a slight decrease in yield but an increase in ending stocks [35] - Domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to 1.1362 million tons, indicating ample supply [35] Cotton Industry - US cotton prices showed a slight increase, with the USDA's September report indicating an upward adjustment in both production and consumption [42] - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with attention on the upcoming new cotton harvest and its impact on market dynamics [42]