Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows mixed trends with rising thread demand and production but falling hot-rolled coil demand and production, while inventory accumulates in both. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by "anti-involution" policies with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets also follow the "anti-involution" policy expectations and face pressure near previous highs [2][3][4] By Commodity Type Steel - Thread's apparent demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate; hot-rolled coil's apparent demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory also continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined slightly but remained high. Downstream industries showed weak domestic demand, while steel exports remained relatively high. Market sentiment was supported by factors such as narrowed PPI decline and marginal relaxation of the Beijing property market [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated recently. Global shipments decreased slightly this period, with a large drop in Australian shipments and increases in Brazilian and non-mainstream country shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased this period but were slightly higher than last year. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills had high profit ratios and limited motivation for active production cuts. The market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward. The sixth round of price increases improved profits, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory continued to decline, and traders had good purchasing intentions. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream iron water remained at a high level during the off-season. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward. Market sentiment was high regarding coal overproduction inspections. Mine production decreased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory remained flat. Total inventory decreased, and production-side inventory continued to decline significantly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly. Iron water production remained above 240. Weekly production continued to increase but at a slower rate than expected, providing some support to the price. Manganese ore prices rose slightly this week, and it was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Supply increased significantly, market trading was average, and on-balance-sheet inventory increased slightly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the domestic stock market. The internal and external environments continue to improve, with some broad - based index valuations still low, economic stimulus policies taking effect, the approaching Fed rate cut, and the RMB exchange rate remaining strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Overview - Last week, the domestic stock market fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly pulled back and then continuously rose, staying above 3600 points. All major broad - based indices closed higher, with the CSI 1000 leading the gains at 2.51%, and the rest rising about 1% [1]. - Externally, due to the significant downward revision of US employment data, the market's pricing of the probability of a September rate cut increased, and the US government intended to guide the market's loose liquidity expectations, leading to the continuous strengthening of the stock market. Domestically, the market expected the extension of the Sino - US low - tariff period, risk appetite recovered, and the index strengthened [1]. - In July, the CPI data increased by 0.4% month - on - month, better than market expectations. The market expected that the anti - involution policy was effective, and the economic recovery accelerated, driving the consumer sectors such as food and beverage to strengthen on Monday [1]. Option Market - As the market stopped falling and stabilized, the implied volatility (IV) of financial options decreased slightly. Currently, the IV of financial options is at a relatively moderate level. The IV of 50 and 300 options is around 12%, and the IV of CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index options is around 17% - 20%. The option position PCR is at a moderately high level [2]. Strategy Outlook - With the index stopping falling and stabilizing and the option IV being relatively moderate, favorable factors continue to gather. One can continue to hold indices with relatively low valuations, such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index [3]. - After the continuous rise of the index, market risk appetite has increased, margin trading data has continued to rise, and leveraged funds have continuously entered the market. If the stock position is relatively large or some call options have been held, one can consider buying near - month out - of - the - money put options for short - term hedging [3]. - The long - term view remains optimistic. One can continue to hold long - term SSE 50, CSI 300, or ChiNext Index call options, or sell near - month SSE 50 ETF put options to reduce the holding cost [3]. - Although the long - term futures discount of the CSI 1000 has narrowed to some extent, the absolute value is still large. The covered call strategy of going long on futures with a large discount and selling at - the - money or out - of - the - money call options still has some room [3]. Market Overview - From August 1st to August 8th, 2025, all major underlying assets showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the SSE 50 ETF rose 1.18%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.27%, the CSI 300 ETF (Shanghai) rose 1.21%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.51% [4]. - The IV of most underlying assets decreased, except for the CSI 1000, whose IV increased by 0.34%. The position PCR of most underlying assets increased [4].

Report Investment Ratings - Wood, 20 - rubber, Butadiene rubber: Bullish with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Natural rubber: No clear short - term trend, with poor market operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Views - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For some commodities, supply and demand, inventory, and weather conditions are key factors affecting prices. Specific trading strategies vary according to different commodity conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose, and the spot sales basis was stable with average trading. After continuous decline, prices stabilized. Low inventory supported prices, but weak downstream orders dragged them down. In July, inventory digestion was good, and it's expected to improve in August. There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. It's recommended to wait and see and maintain a positive spread strategy for the 9 - 11 contract [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated last week. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. Production speeded up due to less rainfall in July, but the overall progress was still slow, and some institutions lowered the annual production forecast. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. Sales were fast, inventory was down year - on - year, and import volume in June increased year - on - year but the cumulative import volume was still low. The market focus shifted to imports and next season's production estimate, and the 25/26 season's production is uncertain [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated upward. Market demand was poor, cold - storage shipment was slow, and spot prices were weak. Cold - storage remaining inventory was low, and storage merchants were eager to sell. Early - maturing apples had high prices but average quality. As of August 7, national cold - storage inventory was 512,000 tons, down 48.1% year - on - year. The market focus shifted to new - season production estimate, and there are differences in production forecasts [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - RU, NR, and BR prices moved down. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices rose, while the external butadiene port price fell. Global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates changed. Domestic tire operating rates declined slowly, and terminal demand was weak. Rubber inventories decreased, market sentiment improved, and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates. The strategy is to wait and see for RU and be bullish for NR and BR [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose. Spot prices in Shandong and other regions were stable or increased. As of August 7, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports decreased. In July, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Currently, port inventory is high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. In August, demand may be boosted. It's recommended to wait and see or try to go long at low prices [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices at Taicang Port increased. Last week, the arrival volume increased, but due to rising external prices and small domestic price increases, importers faced pressure, and domestic supply may remain low. In the off - season, the daily outbound volume at the port was good. As of August 8, national port log inventory decreased. With improving supply - demand and low inventory, spot prices are expected to rebound, and futures prices are expected to rise. A bullish strategy is recommended [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure, and the balance sheet shows that the supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is about twice that of the first three quarters. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money options on SC2510 when the price drops [2]. - The decline in crude oil leads to a continued weakness in fuel - related futures. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure in the short term, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread is expected to continue to narrow [3]. - The asphalt supply pressure is currently limited, demand has room for recovery, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong in the near term [4]. - The LPG price has stabilized slightly. The refinery gas price has room for further decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially pricing in the negative expectations [5]. Summaries by Related Categories Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double compared to the previous three quarters. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. Attention should be paid to the US - Russia leaders' meeting this Friday, and a double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options on SC2510 is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in crude oil causes the fuel - related futures to remain weak. In August, the Asian fuel oil market has abundant arrivals and weak ship - bunkering demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory remains high, and the diesel crack spread has dropped by $7 per barrel since mid - July. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread is expected to narrow [3]. Asphalt - Today, oil product futures generally declined, with BU having the smallest decline. The August production plan decreased significantly compared to July, but some refineries exceeded the production plan. The demand recovery in South China is delayed, and the northern demand is weak. The refinery shipments are flat compared to last week, with the cumulative year - on - year increase rising by 1 percentage point. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years. The supply pressure is limited, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong [4]. LPG - The overseas LPG export market remains loose, but the increase in East Asian chemical procurement provides support. The import volume increased at the beginning of August, and the refinery gas price has room for further decline. The chemical profit margin and the ratio to naphtha are at a good level. After the high - operating - rate period, the sustainability of the good chemical profit margin should be monitored. The futures - spot spread has reached a high level, and the market is in a low - level oscillation after initially pricing in the negative expectations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending August 8, stock index futures rose, with IH2508 up 1.07%, IF2508 up 1.31%, IC2508 up 2.04%, and IM2508 up 2.79%. The current capital situation and bullish sentiment remain strong. Even if there is a short - term correction due to a marginal weakening of the driving force, the correction space is often limited [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose 0.42% last week, with profits coming from going long on IC on Monday and shorting T on Wednesday. In the long - term, inflation has little difference from expectations but suppresses treasury bond futures, with PPI slightly lower than expected. In the short - term, the exchange - rate pressure from the US dollar still exists, the capital situation remains relatively loose, the margin balance has increased, and the overall market risk appetite remains high [1]. - In terms of positions, IF and IH have a marginal decline, while IC and IM remain neutral. The overall comprehensive signal is neutral and oscillating. For treasury bond futures, there was a slight rebound in the capital situation at the beginning of the month, but with the recovery of market risk appetite, the stock - bond seesaw rotation is obvious, the position factor weakens marginally, and institutions are still cautious about allocation behavior, with the comprehensive signal being neutral and oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - **Economic Kinetic Energy**: The blast furnace operating rate, PTA operating rate, and Shandong refinery operating rate increased by 1.35%, 1.35%, and 7.06% respectively, while the operating rate of automobile tires and polyester filament downstream looms decreased by 6.95% and 5.93%. The stock index score is 8, and the treasury bond score is 0 [2]. - **Inflation Indicators**: Some inflation indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index and coking coal index rose, while others like the 1 electrolytic copper price and styrene index fell. The stock index score is 7, and the treasury bond score is 8 [3]. - **Liquidity**: DR007 increased by 0.06%, while DR001, GC001, GC007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week decreased. The stock index score is 9 [4]. - **Index Valuation**: The price - earnings ratio, price - sales ratio, and price - cash - flow ratio increased, while the dividend yield decreased. The stock index score is 10 [5]. - **Market Sentiment - Stock Index**: The margin balance increased by 1.48%, and the short - selling balance increased by 4.19%. The stock index score is 9 [6]. - **Market Sentiment - Bond**: The yield of 10 - year CDB bonds increased by 0.91%, and the S&P 500 volatility index decreased by 25.66%. The treasury bond score is 8 [7]. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital situation, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. - The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by the signals of three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top 2 comprehensive signal strengths greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom 2 less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Position data within 7 days before delivery is shielded [18]. Last Week's Situation - For the IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF main contracts, the trading signals on different days from August 4 to August 8 are shown in the table, with some days having long, short, or no trading signals [20]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into level, slope, and curvature. Signals are divided into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread change trend or oscillation), and '-1' (large spread may increase). The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In actual operation, a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 is used to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [21]. - For the TF and T main contracts from August 4 to August 8, the N - S model signals and trend regression model signals are shown in the table, with some days having different signals [24].

Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for the CITIC five-style - Cycle is ★☆☆ [4] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 1.94%, 0.03%, and -0.36% respectively. In the public fund market, index enhancement strategies led in returns with a weekly increase of 1.65%. In the equity product segment, market neutral strategies generally had more gains than losses. For bonds, convertible bond returns rebounded, but the growth of short - and medium - to long - term pure bond funds slowed compared to the previous week. Among commodity funds, energy and chemical ETFs remained weak, while precious metals saw a rebound in returns, with the net value of silver ETFs rising significantly by 3.84% [4] - In the CITIC five - style, the style index closed up last Friday, with the cycle style leading in returns, rising 3.49%. The style rotation chart showed a slight recovery in the relative strength of the financial and cycle styles, and all five styles strengthened in terms of indicator momentum. Among the public fund pools, the excess returns of consumer - style funds recovered in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 1.06%, while the average return of cycle - style funds did not outperform the benchmark. From the trend of fund style coefficients, some consumer - style funds shifted towards the growth style. Currently, the market congestion is in the historically high - congestion range [4] - In terms of Barra factors, the ALPHA factor had a better return performance in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 0.34%. The returns of the valuation and residual volatility factors weakened. In terms of win - rate, the reversal - type factors strengthened marginally, while the profitability and liquidity factors declined slightly. This week, the cross - sectional rotation speed of factors increased compared to the previous week and is currently in the historically low - quantile range [4] - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the cycle and financial styles recovered this week, while the consumer style declined. The current signal favors the cycle style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.77%, with an excess return of - 1.02% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fund Market Review - In the public fund market, index enhancement strategies led in returns with a weekly increase of 1.65%. Market neutral strategies in equity products generally had more gains than losses. Convertible bond returns rebounded, but the growth of short - and medium - to long - term pure bond funds slowed compared to the previous week. Energy and chemical ETFs remained weak, while precious metals saw a rebound in returns, with the net value of silver ETFs rising significantly by 3.84% [4] Equity Market Style - The CITIC five - style index closed up last Friday, with the cycle style leading in returns, rising 3.49%. The relative strength of the financial and cycle styles slightly recovered, and all five styles strengthened in terms of indicator momentum. The excess returns of consumer - style funds recovered in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 1.06%, while the average return of cycle - style funds did not outperform the benchmark. Some consumer - style funds shifted towards the growth style, and the market congestion is in the historically high - congestion range [4] Barra Factors - The ALPHA factor had a better return performance in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 0.34%. The returns of the valuation and residual volatility factors weakened. The reversal - type factors strengthened marginally, while the profitability and liquidity factors declined slightly. The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors increased compared to the previous week and is currently in the historically low - quantile range [4] Style Timing Model - The cycle and financial styles recovered this week, while the consumer style declined. The current signal favors the cycle style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.77%, with an excess return of - 1.02% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - From August 4th to August 8th, the new round of "reciprocal tariffs" in the US officially took effect, and the meeting time and location between the Russian and US leaders were confirmed. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities declined. In China, stocks and bonds closed higher, and commodities were volatile and weak. Overall, stocks > bonds > commodities [3][6][20]. - The meeting between the Russian and US leaders will have a certain impact on short - term large - scale asset prices. Attention should be paid to the specific progress of this meeting [3][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall - **Global Stock Market**: From August 4th to August 8th, market risk appetite recovered, and global major stock markets generally closed higher. European stocks led the gains, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index dropped significantly. For example, MSCI in the Asia - Pacific region rose 2.25% in a week, and the German DAX rose 3.15% [8][11][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Trump planned to nominate Stephen Milan as a Fed governor. If the nomination succeeds, the divergence on monetary policy within the Fed may increase. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds rose, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 4BP to 4.27%. The bond market rose, and globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [12]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: The expectation of a September US dollar interest rate cut increased, and the US dollar index dropped 0.43% in a week. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [13]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The Russia - US talks reduced geopolitical risk premiums, and international oil prices closed lower. Most major agricultural product prices fell, while non - ferrous metals and precious metals prices rose [18]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities are Volatile and Weak - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market sentiment was positive, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. The growth style was more prominent. In terms of sectors, non - ferrous metals and machinery led the gains, while the pharmaceutical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11% in a week [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 53.65 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market rose. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [25]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market declined slightly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, and the energy sector performed poorly [27]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The meeting between the Russian and US leaders will affect short - term large - scale asset prices. Attention should be paid to the specific progress of this meeting [3][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals declined. A suspected乌龙 event last week caused the US - session gold to hit a record high briefly, with a large premium over London gold. Later, the premium declined after a White House official called relevant reports "false information" [1] - The official implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, some countries' tariff increases, concerns about the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed the international gold price to test the important resistance at the upper end of the trading range in the past three months [1] - Interest rate futures are pricing in a Fed rate cut in September, with 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. Some Fed officials believe it's time to cut rates [1] - Market sentiment may fluctuate as the US economy is continuously verified. If the scenario of significant economic weakness becomes clearer, the upside space for gold may reopen; if the economy lands relatively smoothly, be cautious at high levels [1] - Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the precious metals' oscillating trend. This week, focus on changes in China - US trade policies, the meeting between US and Russian leaders, and the release of US inflation data [1] Other Key Points - Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15. Trump mentioned "territory exchange" in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, but Zelensky refused territorial concessions. The White House is considering inviting Zelensky to Alaska. US Vice - President Vance said efforts are being made to determine the date of a Putin - Zelensky meeting, but a Russia - Ukraine leaders' meeting before the "Trump - Putin meeting" is not constructive [2] - Fed Governor Bowman supports starting rate cuts in September and cutting rates three times within the year [2] - Netanyahu said Israel "has no choice" but to complete the task and defeat Hamas. The next - stage military operations of the Israeli army will focus on two locations still under Hamas control. European members of the UN Security Council strongly condemned Israel's decision to further expand military operations, and Israeli hard - line Finance Minister Smotrich also criticized it as a "stupid" compromise measure [2]

单位：万吨 本期数据 周环比 单位：万吨 本期数据 周环比 全球发货量 3046.7 -15.1 RT发运量 630.6 14.3 巴西19港发运量 847.4 104.7 BHP发运量 542.5 -30.0 澳洲19港发运量 1580.3 -140.9 FMG发运量 311.3 -49.9 澳洲发往中国量 1365.6 -122.8 Vale发运量 566.6 -27.0 四大矿山总发运量 2051 -92.6 国内45港到港量 2381.9 -125.9 2025/8/11 研究院 韩倞 Z0016553 本期铁矿全球发运环比小幅下降，同比强于去年同期，其中澳洲发运下降幅度较大，巴西和非主流国家发运增 加。国内到港量本期环比回落，略高于去年同期水平。整体来看，铁矿供应相对平稳，未来存在季节性回升预 期。 《铁矿发运到港周周递》 市场总览 【免责申明】 数据来源：Mysteel，国投期货整理 1600.00 2100.00 2600.00 3100.00 3600.00 4100.00 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2021 2022 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear guiding thread, with some underground copper mines in Chile resuming operations and waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. - The aluminum market shows narrow fluctuations, with the social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increasing. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the aluminum oxide market is in a state of surplus [3]. - The zinc market is pulled up by the external market due to continuous inventory reduction in LME zinc and increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound [4]. - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions [7]. - The tin market is in a volatile state, and it is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a daily limit on Monday. The shutdown of a mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL has affected the market, and the downstream is actively restocking [9]. - The industrial silicon market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks [10]. - The polysilicon market has a limited upward push in spot prices, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Monday, Shanghai copper continued its upward trend in the session, with spot copper at 79,150 yuan and flat - water copper at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. Some underground copper mines in Chile resumed operations, and the market is waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the East China spot at a discount of 50 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 23,000 tons and aluminum bars by 4,000 tons. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with a stable spot price of 19,800 yuan. Alumina is in a state of surplus, with limited downward space [3]. Zinc - LME zinc continued to reduce inventory, and the external market pulled up the domestic market. The term structure of zinc has flattened, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions, with funds mainly reducing positions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the social inventory continues to decline. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the maintenance rhythm of primary lead smelters in late August [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The upstream price support has weakened significantly. The inventory situation is complex, and it is recommended to enter short positions as the market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up, with spot tin at 268,000 yuan and a premium of 600 yuan to the delivery month. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. It is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price had a daily limit on Monday. A mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL shut down, and the downstream actively restocked. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and the price structure shows a weak near - month trend [9]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon rose slightly, with stable spot prices. The market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks as the expected increase in downstream demand is less than that of industrial silicon [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded after reaching above 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price increase was limited. The downstream component price decreased, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11].