Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall domestic demand in the steel industry remains weak, while exports stay at a relatively high level. The spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the "anti - involution" dominates the market trend. The market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with supply having seasonal recovery expectations in August and demand likely to keep iron - water production at a high level in the short term [3]. - Coke is expected to rise in the short term, with the fifth round of price increases implemented, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4]. - Coking coal prices have a relatively small downside space in the short term, with the market sentiment heating up due to coal over - production inspection expectations, and the price is also affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. - Silicomanganese prices are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with the price bottom gradually rising, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [7]. - Ferrosilicon follows the trend of silicomanganese, and its price is also greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The construction materials demand is weak in the off - season, with thread apparent demand declining and inventory accumulating at a low level. Hot - rolled coil demand has resilience, with production relatively high and inventory slightly accumulating. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the market negative feedback pressure is small. The downstream industries show weak domestic demand and high - level exports [2]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore decreased month - on - month, with a seasonal recovery expected in August. The domestic arrival volume increased month - on - month but was lower than last year. The port inventory stabilized, and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term. The terminal demand is weak, and the iron - water production is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. Coke - The fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with production slightly decreasing and inventory continuing to decline. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production remains high. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and is expected to rise in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month. The market sentiment is affected by coal over - production inspection expectations, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with a relatively small downside space in the short term [6]. Silicomanganese - The demand for silicomanganese is supported by high - level iron - water production. The weekly production has increased, but the rate is lower than expected. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [7]. Ferrosilicon - The iron - water production of ferrosilicon has slightly decreased but remains above 240. The export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand has slightly decreased. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It follows the trend of silicomanganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [8].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年08月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 籃硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 【焦炭】 日内价格上行。焦化第五轮提涨落地，提涨节奏加快，利润有所改善，焦化日产小幅下降。焦炭整体库存继续小幅下降，贸易 商采购意愿较好。整体来看，碳元素供应端是充裕的，下游铁水淡季仍保持较高水平，煤炭查超产确有落地，对实际生产略有 扰动。焦炭盘面升水，价格受"反内卷"政策预期扰动较大，短期内波动率仍然较 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]

Group 1: Production, Sales, and Shipping Volume - In Q2 2025, FMG's production was 83.6, a 23.6% increase from Q1 2025 and a 3.7% increase from Q2 2024; sales were 77.3, a 16.9% increase from Q1 2025 but a 3.1% decrease from Q2 2024 [7] - In Q2 2025, for another data set, production was 77.5, a 14.3% increase from Q1 2025 and a 0.9% increase from Q2 2024; sales were 76.7, a 14.8% increase from Q1 2025 and a 1.1% increase from Q2 2024 [7] - In Q2 2025, for yet another data set, production was 83.7, a 19.9% increase from Q1 2025 and a 5.3% increase from Q2 2024; shipping volume was 79.9, a 13.0% increase from Q1 2025 but a 0.5% decrease from Q2 2024; FMG's shipping volume was 55.2, a 19.7% increase from Q1 2025 and a 2.8% increase from Q2 2024 [7] Group 2: Product Data (PB and Others) - In Q2 2025, PB block was 11.2, with a -10% year - on - year change and a 14% quarter - on - quarter change; PB powder was 21.5, with a -13% year - on - year change and a 14% quarter - on - quarter change [15] - In Q2 2025, Robe River block was 1.4, with a 4% year - on - year change and a 20% quarter - on - quarter change; Robe River powder was 2.6, with a -15% year - on - year change and an 18% quarter - on - quarter change [15] - In Q2 2025, Yangdi powder was 10.6, with a -6% year - on - year change and a 14% quarter - on - quarter change; SP10 block was 8.3, with a 64% year - on - year change and a 3% quarter - on - quarter change; SP10 powder was 12.5, with a 52% year - on - year change and a 9% quarter - on - quarter change [15] Group 3: Other Product Data - In Q2 2025, Newman was 15.07, with a 5% year - on - year change and a 26% quarter - on - quarter change; Area C was 32.82, with a 13% year - on - year change and an 18% quarter - on - quarter change [22] - In Q2 2025, Yangdi was 3.85, with a -27% year - on - year change and a 1% quarter - on - quarter change; Jinbuba was 16.6, with a -14% year - on - year change and a 1% quarter - on - quarter change [22] Group 4: More Product Data - In Q2 2025, Tieqiao was 2.4, with a 300% year - on - year change and a 60% quarter - on - quarter change; Western Pilbara powder was 3.5, with a 192% year - on - year change and a 3% quarter - on - quarter change [25] - In Q2 2025, King powder was 3.5, with a 6% year - on - year change and a -13% quarter - on - quarter change; Mixed powder was 21.5, with a 4% year - on - year change and a 24% quarter - on - quarter change [25] - In Q2 2025, FMG block was 1.8, with no year - on - year change and a 0% quarter - on - quarter change; Super Special powder was 22.6, with a -19% year - on - year change and a 26% quarter - on - quarter change [25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, similar to sugar, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, with a bullish drive but limited market operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, bullish drive but weak market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report provides operation suggestions for various soft commodities, mainly including waiting and seeing for most products, and maintaining a long - biased idea for timber futures [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Today, Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable basis of inland cotton spot and average trading; pure cotton yarn prices fell, and downstream buyers purchased as needed [2] - After continuous decline, cotton prices stabilized. Low cotton inventory supported prices, but weak downstream orders dragged them down [2] - In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, processing profit was under pressure, and warehouse receipt digestion was slow [2] - There is a strong expectation of production increase in Xinjiang in the new year, with increased planting area and ideal weather [2] - Operation: wait and see for now; for spreads, maintain a positive spread strategy for September - November [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in the 25/26 season in the central - south is 72 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease, but the sugar production is expected to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio [3] - In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July in Guangxi, 355,500 tons of sugar were sold, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons; industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [3] - Domestic sugar remaining inventory is low, and inventory pressure is light. The decisive factor for the market is the national sugar production in the 25/26 season, and weather uncertainty exists [3] - Operation: wait and see [3] Apple - Apple prices fluctuated. As the production season nears the end, cold - storage remaining inventory is low, and traders are eager to sell, leading to weak prices [4] - The listing volume of early - maturing apples increased, with prices starting high and then falling. Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples is average, and the quantity of high - quality products is small [4] - As of August 1st, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, a 46.2% year - on - year decrease; last week's de - stocking volume was 72,000 tons, a 26.9% year - on - year decline [4] - The market focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. The western production area was affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, increasing the risk of fruit rust, but the impact on production is small. There are still differences in production estimates [4] - Operation: wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated. The domestic natural rubber spot price rose steadily, synthetic rubber prices were stable, the port price of external butadiene was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand generally increased [6] - Supply: global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, with heavy rainfall in major Southeast Asian producing areas; last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased further, some plants planned to overhaul or restart, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate slightly declined [6] - Demand: last week, the domestic all - steel tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continued to decline slightly due to plant maintenance or load reduction. Terminal market demand was weak, and tire finished - product inventory decreased [6] - Inventory: this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao dropped to 631,800 tons; last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,900 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory fell to 10,400 tons [6] - Strategy: wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian needles in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,180 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7] - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% month - on - month decline [7] - Currently, domestic import inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and it's the traditional off - season. The pulp fundamentals are still weak [7] - Prices may return to low - level fluctuations. Operation: wait and see [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable [8] - Supply: it's still the off - season for New Zealand timber shipments, and the domestic arrival volume of coniferous timber remains low. Although external prices have rebounded for two months, domestic spot prices are still weak, and traders face more pressure, so imports are unlikely to increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8] - Demand: after entering the off - season, the average daily port outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions [8] - Inventory: as of August 1, the total national port timber inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory pressure [8] - Fundamentals have improved, spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season approaches, timber inventory will gradually decrease, and short - term spot prices will rebound, and futures prices are expected to continue rising. Operation: maintain a long - biased idea [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a slight bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: No specific rating provided - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, production disruptions, policy expectations, and market sentiment. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on its specific situation [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated below the MA60 moving average and closed positive. The current copper price was 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 660 yuan. The market was evaluating the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper might oscillate down to $9,500, and short positions were recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots had been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak might appear in August. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price was raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor. In the medium term, it had certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Alumina was under pressure and oscillating, with limited downward space [2] Zinc - The rebound trend of "anti - involution" black varieties was difficult to disprove. Shanghai zinc short - sellers reduced positions on dips, and the price rebounded. The downstream had stocked up at low prices before and was less willing to buy at high prices, resulting in a light spot trading volume. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand still dominated the medium - term short - selling strategy. However, due to positive expectations of domestic fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, Shanghai zinc had a high probability of a phased rebound. Traders were advised to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down rapidly, and nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to its fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of ferronickel was basically stable at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. Traders were advised to pay attention to the end of the destocking process [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated during the session, and it was expected to be in an oscillating market. Overseas tin prices were supported by low visible inventory and a decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, attention was paid to the change in high social inventory due to the game between the major factory maintenance plan and weak consumption. Traders were advised to close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of goods entered the market. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons, and the smelter production decreased by 8% week - on - week. The price was expected to oscillate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed strongly. Xinjiang abolished the notice on the compliance capacity certification of industrial silicon, but it was clear that window guidance would still be implemented later. The spot price remained stable. In August, both supply and demand increased. The futures were expected to oscillate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon continued to rise, partly driven by the strength of coking coal. The SMM average price of polysilicon re - feed was 47,000 yuan/ton. The price was expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and traders were advised to pay attention to the sentiment transmission of coking coal and strengthen position risk control [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bearish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and provides corresponding investment ratings based on these factors [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated around the 5 - day moving average. Low prices, improved downstream product profits, and reduced supply due to unexpected shutdowns of local PDH plants supported the price [2] - Polyolefin futures had a narrow - range intraday fluctuation. Polyethylene's short - term production is expected to increase, with both supply and demand rising recently. Polypropylene's prices are stable, and some offers are tentatively raised, but downstream procurement is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, but port inventory decreased. There is an expected improvement in supply - demand in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - Styrene futures prices declined. The expected output of a new plant may have a negative impact, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak [3] Polyester - PTA prices rebounded. New plant production and increased output from existing plants pressured the supply, but production cuts may boost the market. PX may face demand decline if PTA production cuts increase [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded. Supply is expected to continue to rise, and there is an expected increase in demand [5] - Short fiber prices followed the raw materials and sales improved. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the industry [5] - Bottle chip's low - start operation led to stable inventory, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly. Coastal olefin plants have low operation rates, and ports are expected to accumulate inventory. In the long - term, the approaching peak - season demand should be monitored [6] - Urea market sentiment cooled. The Indian tender price boosted the spot market, but short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fluctuated strongly. Cost support increased, but supply increased and demand was weak, so short - term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated weakly. Comprehensive profit improved, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated. High - price resistance led to a downward shift. Supply is high, and the long - term market is weak, but prices are unlikely to fall below the previous low [8] - Glass prices fluctuated. Mid - stream sales led to a decline in spot prices, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal futures has risen significantly, and the report attempts to evaluate the sustainability of this increase by analyzing policy and market factors. While the long - term trend of coking coal valuation is upward, short - term sharp rises carry increasing risks of price correction [2][13][16] Summary by Directory Policy Specific Execution and Changes on the Basis of Supply Assurance - The National Energy Administration's notice on coal production verification is the focus of the current market. The verification covers 8 provinces (autonomous regions), requiring annual and monthly coal production not to exceed the announced capacity, and over - producing mines to be shut down for rectification. However, issues such as the definition of announced capacity and how to handle the coal mines with increased capacity after 2022 remain unclear [3][4] - Although the overall over - production situation in the first half of the year was rare, it may be difficult for some small and open - pit mines to strictly control monthly production within the limit. Currently, only a few mines are affected by this policy, but state - owned mines are expected to reduce production in some over - producing mines. The policy has a significant supply - limiting effect on state - owned mines [5] - The price of thermal coal has deviated from the lower limit of the reasonable range. Considering the supply - assurance pressure during the heating season, the impact of the policy on coal production may not be obvious until 2026, and its implementation needs further observation [7] Slow Supply Recovery and Manageable Coking Coal Stockpiling Pressure - Due to provincial self - inspections and production disruptions caused by heavy rain, domestic coking coal production has grown slowly since July. Imported coal is also affected by weather and equipment factors, making it difficult for the overall coking coal supply to recover significantly in the short term [9] - The rapid rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has stimulated arbitrage purchases by traders and inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises. Although the implicit inventory has increased, the total explicit inventory of carbon elements has declined. High steel mill profits have also supported the rapid increase in coke prices [11] Medium - to - Long - Term Inflection Point Established, but Risks of Price Decline are Rapidly Accumulating - The long - term trend of coking coal valuation has bottomed out and turned upward. However, in the short term, as production in some areas is expected to resume, downstream inventory replenishment space is limited, and the demand for carbon elements in the industry chain is approaching its peak, there is a possibility of over - consuming the winter storage market in the fourth quarter [13] - On the futures market, the large and rapid increase in positions in the coking coal 2601 contract has led to prominent capital contradictions and increased exchange attention. The spot price increase is showing signs of weakness, so the risk of a price decline in coking coal futures is rapidly increasing [16]

Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - International oil prices fell overnight, with the SC contract down 0.63%. OPEC+’s September production increase decision and poor US economic data pressured the market. There are risks of oil price increases due to Russian oil sanctions, and attention should be paid to the EIA inventory performance tonight [2] - Crude oil futures continued to fall, while fuel oil futures rose inversely. The low-sulfur fuel oil market is under short-term pressure, and the high-low sulfur fuel oil price difference has the power to shrink [2] - The asphalt supply increase space is currently neutral, demand has the expectation of repair, and the low inventory still supports the price [3] - The LPG market maintains a weak oscillation. The supply is relatively loose, and domestic demand has bottom support [4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with the SC contract down 0.63%. OPEC+’s September production increase decision and poor US economic data pressured the market [2] - Trump plans to significantly increase import tariffs on India in the next 24 hours to sanction its purchase of Russian oil. The issue of the extension of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US has not been finalized. Attention should be paid to the risk of oil price increases caused by Russian oil sanctions [2] - Last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels more than expected. Attention should be paid to the EIA inventory performance tonight [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil futures continued to fall, while fuel oil futures rose inversely. The increase of FU was stronger than that of LU [2] - In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly month-on-month. After the peak season of ship bunkering demand, there was a lack of phased support from export rush. Since June, the ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has weakened month-on-month [2] - The high-level decline trend of the Singapore diesel crack spread continued. The low-sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are weak, and with the recent weakening of costs, the short-term pressure pattern of LU is difficult to change [2] - As the deadline set by the US for Russia to reach an agreement approaches, high-sulfur resources are relatively supported, and the high-low sulfur fuel oil price difference has the power to shrink [2] Asphalt - Today, the main contract of asphalt switched to the 10 contract. The SC closed down, while the BU rose slightly in the opposite direction [3] - The production plan in August decreased month-on-month compared to July, but Sinopec's refineries have exceeded the production plan for two consecutive months, and the maintenance of Lanqiao Petrochemical has been postponed again [3] - The shipment volume of sample refineries increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase remained stable. The de-stocking of factory warehouses slowed down, and social warehouses slightly increased inventory. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month-on-month but was still at a relatively low level in recent years [3] - The asphalt supply increase space is currently neutral, and follow-up attention should be paid to the actual production release of major refiners. The demand has the expectation of repair, and the low inventory still supports the price [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount has shrunk. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of export surplus pressure under OPEC's production increase [4] - The chemical profit margin has stabilized due to the decline of the finished product end. The PDH operating rate will continue to rise, and domestic demand has bottom support [4] - In July, the arrival volume increased overall, the supply was relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline of import costs [4] - The LPG market maintains a weak oscillation. The current basis has risen to a relatively high level [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is still assessing the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper may decline to $9,500, and short positions should be held [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and there are opportunities in the price difference between the spot and AL. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating, with limited downside [3]. - The fundamental situation of zinc is supply increase and demand weakness, but there is a high probability of a phased rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7]. - Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. High - level short positions should be closed and wait and see [8]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [9]. - Industrial silicon futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [10]. - Polysilicon futures prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with strong pressure around 55,000 yuan/ton and obvious support around 48,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Metals Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated and closed up below the MA60 moving average. The current copper price is 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference has converged to 660 yuan. Pay attention to US trade data for June in the evening. The supply loss rate may increase in the second half of the year. LME copper may decline to $9,500, and short positions should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots have been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season has decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price has been raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating, with limited downside [3] Zinc - The rebound trend of zinc is difficult to falsify. The short - selling of Shanghai zinc should reduce positions on dips. The fundamental situation is supply increase and demand weakness, but there is a high probability of a phased rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme has cooled down, and nickel is returning to the fundamentals. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is still at a high level. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with position reduction during the session. It is expected to be in a volatile market. High - level short positions should be closed and wait and see [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak oscillation, and the market trading has shrunk. The total inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up strongly. The spot price is stable. In August, both supply and demand are increasing. The futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise. The average price of SMM polysilicon re - feeding material is 47,000 yuan/ton. The prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with strong pressure around 55,000 yuan/ton and obvious support around 48,000 yuan/ton [11]