Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Group 2: Core Views - The decline of the US non - manufacturing PMI in July, concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have weakened the US dollar, causing international gold prices to test the resistance at the high of the operating range in the past three months. Amid the repeated market sentiment due to the continuous verification of the US economy, the idea of buying on dips is maintained in the precious metals' oscillating trend [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information US Economic Data - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The July ISM new orders index decreased from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders shrank for the fourth time in five months [1][2] - The US trade balance in June was -$60.2 billion, the smallest deficit since September 2023 [1] Tariff Information - Trump announced that drug and chip tariffs would be announced in the next week, with drug tariffs reaching up to 250%. Indian tariffs would be significantly increased within 24 hours, and a 35% tariff would be imposed if the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US [1] Political News - Trump believes that Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance. A new Fed chairman may be announced soon, with four candidates, and Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月06日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价继续回落，布伦特10合约跌1.46%，OPEC+9月增产决策及近期美国表现不佳的经济数 据仍令市场承压。昨日特朗普表示将在未来24小时大幅提升对印度进口关税以制裁其购买俄油的行 为，临近8月12日到期日中美对等关税延期的问题亦未最终落地，关注俄油制裁引发的油价上行风 险。上周美国API原油库存超预期下降423.3万桶,关注今晚EIA库存表现。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布7月非制造业PMI从50.8下滑至50.1低于预期的51.5。美联储独立性问题、美国经济前 景担忧以及降息预期升温令美元维持偏弱趋势，国际金价再度测试近三个月以来运行区间高位阻 力。美国经济的不断验证可能令市场情绪存在反复，贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走跌到MA60日均线下方，一方面伦铜库存单日大增，另一方面特朗普言论，尤其ISM服务 业指数零增长，再次凸显美国经济增长压力，铜价收跌。不过市场仍在评估Codelco地下矿场事故 可能对年度生产目标的影响，下半年供损率有提升风险。伦铜可能震荡下调到9500美元，空单持 有。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, with a slightly bullish/bearish trend and a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lead: Not explicitly rated in the content [5] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis indicating market trends [6] - Tin: ★☆☆, having a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, representing a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis on market trends [10] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on different metal characteristics [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Shanghai copper closed slightly up on Tuesday. The spot copper was reported at 78,615 yuan, with a premium of 130 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. LME copper inventories increased to over 150,000 tons. There is a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. The resistance of the copper price at the MA40 moving average is strong, and LME copper may decline to $9,500. Hold short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. The spot discount in East China was 40 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. There has been continuous inventory accumulation for two weeks, and the apparent consumption decline in the off - season is significant. The short - term may be under pressure to fluctuate, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short - term, the price fluctuates, and in the medium - term, it has certain resilience compared to the aluminum price. Recently, the operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. In the short - term, alumina fluctuates weakly, but the decline space is relatively limited due to the firm price of bauxite in the overseas rainy season [2] Zinc - The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. Funds continue to reduce positions, and short - selling sentiment is gradually released. Refineries have sufficient raw materials, and supply is expected to increase. The zinc concentrate TC still has room to rebound. The demand seasonality is obvious, and the support for prices is insufficient. However, as the 08 contract enters the delivery month and the 09 and 10 contracts expire during the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, policy changes need to be monitored. The support for Shanghai zinc is temporarily seen at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark. Wait and see for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Short - selling sentiment was gradually released, and Shanghai lead rebounded. The SMM1 lead average price was reported at 16,600 yuan/ton. The discount to the 08 contract narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. Lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and some primary lead refineries have regular maintenance plans from late August to early September. Consumption is the key to the rebound of Shanghai lead. The refined lead price remains flat, and the price advantage of recycled lead is almost gone. Downstream buyers prefer to purchase low - priced primary lead. Lead ingot inventories are decreasing, which supports Shanghai lead. In August, the traditional peak season, monitor social inventories to verify the peak - season effect. It is expected that Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme in the domestic market was severely hit, and the theme speculation cooled down rapidly. Nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of nickel - iron remained basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin rose during the session, and the current tin price was 267,000 yuan. The overseas tin market has low inventories, and is supported by the production decline of Indonesia's天马 in the first half of the year. Technically, both domestic and overseas tin prices should pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly, and market trading contracted. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods entered the market. Downstream inquiry activities were active, and spot market transactions improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the refinery inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The downstream increased replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest Australian ore quote was $745, which clearly followed the price decline. The weekly smelting output decreased by 8%. The lithium carbonate futures price has some support after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up with fluctuations, driven by the sentiment of relevant photovoltaic export policy expectations. In the spot market, the supply in major producing areas shows marginal increases, while the realization of the demand increase in polysilicon in August is still uncertain. The leading organic silicon monomer plants are still in the process of gradual resumption. The weekly inventory of industrial silicon shows a slight accumulation trend. Currently, the sentiment in the photovoltaic sector has not dissipated, and industrial silicon futures have corrected significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell at the end of the session, closing above 50,000 yuan/ton, highlighting the divergence between long and short positions. The driving force for the long side comes from the expectation of the adjustment of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic modules. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to slightly revise up their production schedules. The current market highly depends on the implementation rhythm of policies. Given the uncertainty of policy games, consider buying call options [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is in a volatile trend, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips. As geopolitical tensions ease and tariff policies are gradually implemented, market focus shifts to the US economy and interest - rate cut prospects. If stagflation or recession scenarios become clearer, the upside potential of gold may be reopened [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Economic Data - The US Q2 GDP annualized quarterly rate rebounded by 3% more than expected, and the weekly initial jobless claims remained low. However, the July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Trump claimed the non - farm employment data was manipulated [1] Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. Powell reiterated that future policies will be determined by economic data. After the significant decline in non - farm payrolls, traders fully priced in two interest - rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut rose to 90%. Fed's Daly said the time for rate cuts is approaching, and the number of rate cuts this year is more likely to be more than two [1][2] Tariff Policy - The EU will suspend trade countermeasures against the US for 6 months, waiting for Trump's action on auto tariffs and exemptions this week. Trump said he will significantly increase tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian oil, and India responded that the accusation is baseless. The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7 and is determined to make a more attractive proposal to the US [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the symbol implies a neutral state [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bearish trend with a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, indicating a bearish view with a relatively clear downward trend and the market is being affected [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The international oil price dropped overnight, and the SC09 contract declined by 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, pressuring the oil market in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week [2] - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The overnight international oil price fell, with the SC09 contract down 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, increasing the supply - demand pressure in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week. Also, attention should be paid to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited, especially the low - sulfur fuel oil with a decline of less than 1%. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4]

0 20 40 60 80 100 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 大豆播种率 大豆播种率5年平均 去年同期 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 大豆出苗率 大豆出苗率5年平均 去年同期 0 20 40 60 80 100 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 玉米播种率 玉米播种率5年平均 去年同期 0 20 40 60 80 100 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 玉米出苗率 玉米出苗率5年平均 去年同期 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2025年 2024年 2023年 2022年 2021年 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2025年 2024年 2023年 2022年 2021年 0 20 40 60 80 100 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1 大豆 ...

| | | 有色金属周度观点 国发期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国授期货 | 研究院有色全属团队 | 2025/8/5 | | 序号 | 品产 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | 衡向铜价震高下调。1) 情绪:美国浸防段232铜芙股征收对象大超预期,夹伦街老瑟利逻排破裂. 夹盘暴跌, 恰老目归到100美元:伦导沪 铜廷徐震荡。7月主要经济体制造业IIII萎缩为主:IIF表示受益关极不确定带来的进口图货需求,上调今年经济增速预期。25至35, 如预期"按兵不动",且然美国6月核心死后同比上激2.8%,创四个月新高,但英国过去两个月非袁就业人数大幅下滑,市场认为8月下调利 | | 1 | | 率为大概率事件,降息交易情绪升温。2)团内供藏:沪桐减仓明显,跌破460日均线后,在7.8万暂获支撑,市况仍属该季。周二观阴报 | | 월 | | 78615元,上科钢开水130元,广东贴水55元,周一胡风铜社库增加300吨至13.43万吨,因产货源与进口铜到货均有增加,消费相对一般, | | | | 原材报价仍紧。3》耗外。伦导体名和一13.95万吨，IDE0=3月贴水32类元。 智利Co ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with the corresponding升贴水 and their changes [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,615, with a price increase of 195; SMM flat - water copper升贴水 is 110, down 45 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,520, up 40; SMM A00 aluminum升贴水 is - 40, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,240, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 375 dollars, down 2 dollars [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,600, down 100; SMM 1 lead ingot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 30, up 20. Recycled refined lead average price is 16,600, down 125; the refined - scrap price difference is 0, up 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,300, up 130; SMM 0 zinc ingot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 35, up 20 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 267,000, up 1,200; SMM 1 tin升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 550, down 80. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 255,000, up 1,200; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.51% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 121,100, up 600; 1 imported nickel升贴水 to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 350, unchanged. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,000, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel升贴水 to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 2,250, down 100 [1]. Silicon - Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 is 9,550, down 250; 553 spot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,180, down 205. 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 10,000, polysilicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polysilicon material average price is 47 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,200, down 150; battery - grade lithium carbonate升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,560, down 350. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100, the battery - industrial carbon price difference is 2,100, with no change [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Roll: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, no clear definition provided in the given content [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Steel: Spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant. After adjustment, the market stabilizes with strong downside support. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [2] - Iron Ore: Expected to be in a short - term oscillating and slightly upward trend [3] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [4] - Coking Coal: Volatility is large in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [6] - Silicon Manganese: The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside space is gradually suppressed [7] - Ferrosilicon: The upside pressure on the price gradually increases [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread: In the off - season, building material demand is weak, with a decline in apparent demand and a slight drop in production. Inventory accumulates at a low level [2] - Hot Roll: Both demand and production increase, and inventory continues to accumulate slightly [2] - Overall: Iron - water production declines but remains high. The negative feedback pressure on the market is small under the low - inventory pattern. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain relatively high [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decline this period, with a seasonal rebound expected in August. Domestic arrivals increase but are lower than last year's level. Port inventory decreases significantly [3] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak due to weather. Blast - furnace iron - water decreases slightly, and steel mills have insufficient motivation for active production cuts [3] - Macro: Overseas trade uncertainty exists, and domestic anti - involution concerns cool down. Coking coal rebound drives bullish sentiment [3] Coke - Price: The price rises significantly during the day [4] - Production: The fifth round of price increases is implemented, and daily production decreases slightly [4] - Inventory: Overall inventory continues to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is good [4] Coking Coal - Price: The price hits the daily limit and then declines slightly, with high volatility [6] - Production: Coking coal mine production increases slightly, and the spot auction market improves [6] - Inventory: Total inventory decreases, and production - end inventory drops significantly [6] Silicon Manganese - Demand: Iron - water production remains above 240 [7] - Production: Weekly production continues to increase, but the rate is lower than expected [7] - Raw Materials: Manganese ore prices rise slightly this week, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - Demand: Iron - water production decreases slightly but remains above 240. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, and metal magnesium production decreases marginally [8] - Supply: Supply increases slightly, and market transactions are average. On - balance inventory accumulates slightly [8] - Cost: As the peak electricity - consumption period passes, electricity costs may decline [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 棕榈油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 莱粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 菜油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 玉米: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 生猪: 一颗星代表偏空，判断趋势有下跌的驱动，但盘面可操作性不强 [1][9] - 鸡蛋: 一颗星代表偏空，判断趋势有下跌的驱动，但盘面可操作性不强 [1][9] Core Views - 农产品各品种受多种因素影响，走势各异，需综合考虑天气、政策、供需等因素进行投资决策 [2][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 豆一 - 黑龙江和内蒙古大豆处于结荚时段，本周东北地区降水利于生长，豆一和豆二价差缩窄，豆一弱于进口大豆，进口大豆短期天气风险不大，价格止跌企稳，后续关注国产大豆产区天气及震荡指引 [2] 大豆&豆粕 - 截至8月3日当周，美国大豆优良率为69%，依旧处于历史同期高位，未来两周美豆主产区降雨略低于常值，温度先降后升，土壤湿度好于去年同期，国内油厂压榨率稳定，周度压榨量超200万吨，豆粕库存增至百万吨左右，中美贸易关税未公布最终方案，美豆或有早期丰产预期，延续弱势，关税问题明朗前，豆粕行情先以震荡对待 [2] 豆油&棕榈油 - 今日国内商品大部分上涨，豆棕油表现强势，均大幅增仓，豆油基差止跌反弹，国内豆油出口窗口打开，边际压力缓和，关税矛盾下远期豆油供应端有不确定性风险，四季度是需求旺季，需谨慎中期市场情绪发酵，美豆油长期需求受产能扩张和政策支持，价格底部有支撑，小型炼厂豁免问题未解决，影响价格波动和阶段需求，预计中期美豆油震荡中性或偏强，国内外豆油价差有向零值或负值波动的概率，今年内外价差收敛靠国内补涨概率大，对豆油棕榈油维持逢低多配思路，棕榈油中期面临四季度减产周期，需放大波动空间 [2] 菜粕&菜油 - 国内菜系今日均收涨，菜粕未摆脱窄区间震荡格局，菜油受植物油板块提振但走势最弱，加拿大菜籽主产区天气利于生长，优良率与单产预估较好，未来半月降雨预计较好，天气升水有望缩窄，加菜籽新作期价预计在700加元/吨以下波动，加拿大菜籽2025/26年度总供给下滑，但因欧盟下调进口需求、中加经贸关系存隐忧，加菜籽平衡表紧张与否取决于中加关系走向，中加菜系短期维持区间震荡，关注中加经贸关系前景 [4] 玉米 - 8月5日，中储粮进口玉米拍卖19.84万吨，成交率13%，截至目前共进行11次拍卖，共计约268.8万吨，粮源投放影响市场预期，大连玉米期货持续下跌，山东现货稳定供应，国内玉米市场未出现政策引导的供需结构性转变，关注流通环节阶段性供应情况，美玉米价格下行背景下，大连玉米期货或继续底部偏弱运行 [5] 生猪 - 生猪期货偏弱震荡回落，现货价格今日基本稳定，8月规模企业生猪计划出栏量环比增加6.6%，中期生猪供应量充足，政策驱动行情上周降温，生猪期货大概率已见顶，后期震荡回落概率加大，建议产业以逢高套期保值为主，关注行业出栏节奏、出栏体重及产能变化 [6] 鸡蛋 - 鸡蛋现货价格部分地区稳定，部分地区下跌，盘面09合约减仓下跌，其他合约不同程度反弹，7月在产存栏继续增加，有冷库蛋出库压力，盘面越远月合约越强、越抗跌，未来价格拐点取决于行业大量淘汰产能出清过剩产能的时间，26年之后的期货合约走势比25年下半年的期货合约强劲，预计在市场交易蛋价周期性反转前这一特征将持续存在，盘面仍以熊市周期未完结看待，套利建议反套思路 [7]