Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and the market situation is evolving) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products expected to be weak, some in a balanced state, and some showing potential investment opportunities. Each product's performance is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Categories Methanol - Intraday price oscillated with reduced positions. Coastal olefins increased load, raising methanol external procurement demand. Ports gradually accumulated inventory, and the basis remained strong. Inland device maintenance restarts increased, leading to higher load and weaker prices. Coal prices stopped falling, alleviating cost pressure. With the expectation of increased supply, the methanol market is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of Jiangsu Maritime's ship - age restrictions [2] Urea - Futures prices dropped sharply with increased positions, breaking through the low in late April. Agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest gap. With the end of summer high - nitrogen fertilizer production and clear export policies, market trading sentiment weakened, and producers' inventories continued to accumulate. Although exports are gradually liberalized, legal inspections are still restricted, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. A new Indian tender has little impact on the market. Device maintenance increased slightly, and the load decreased slightly but remained high. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the integer level [3] Polyolefins - Futures main contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, there are still many maintenance plans in June, providing some support on the supply side. However, it is the off - season for demand, and end - users mainly replenish inventory at low prices, providing limited support for spot prices. For polypropylene, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery is average. The market lacks clear signals, and market sentiment is cautious. The restart of previously maintained upstream devices and inventory accumulation during holidays have increased supply pressure, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify with the upcoming launch of new devices [4] Styrene - The main futures contract fluctuated narrowly, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. There is an expectation of increased supply, and producers' intention to sell is strong, suppressing downstream replenishment transactions. Producers are gradually reducing prices, and downstream users are using existing raw materials and purchasing on an as - needed basis, with weak market sentiment [6] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices declined first and then oscillated back, remaining weak overall. PX and PTA operating rates continued to increase, while polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and terminal weaving load decreased. The industry chain shows a situation of increased upstream production and decreased downstream load, and PX and PTA are expected to be under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and potential production cuts. Ethylene glycol prices rose rapidly due to the suspension of ethane shipments from the US but then oscillated back, and the monthly spread remained weak. With the commissioning of new plants and the restart of coal - chemical plants, port arrivals increased from a low level, and ports accumulated inventory. Coupled with possible weakening demand, market sentiment turned weak. Short - fiber prices were weakly volatile, with low processing margins. Terminal orders weakened, and supply - demand drivers were downward, mainly following raw material price fluctuations. Bottle - chip production is mainly for peak - season orders, and inventory is stable. As raw material prices weakened, the processing margin on the futures market rebounded from a low level, while the spot processing margin continued to weaken [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued its weak pattern. With less maintenance in June and the expected commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new plant, supply pressure increased. With the arrival of the Indian rainy season, exports are expected to weaken, and domestic demand is weak, so the PVC industry faces inventory accumulation pressure. The decline in calcium carbide prices has undermined cost support. In a weak supply - demand situation, futures prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda is operating weakly. The increase in liquid chlorine prices has improved the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.5%. Liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased but still faces pressure. The enthusiasm of non - aluminum downstream users and traders to take delivery is average. Downstream rigid demand has not improved significantly. With high - profit margins, supply is operating at a high level, and futures prices are under pressure at high levels [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass continued the pattern of inventory accumulation and price reduction, and futures prices were weak. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the enthusiasm of traders to purchase decreased, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, inventory is concentrated in upstream and mid - stream, with high pressure. With the upcoming rainy season, the industry faces shipment pressure. Coal production lines still have profits, with two new production lines and three ignition lines recently, slightly increasing capacity. Processing orders have not improved significantly month - on - month and are still weak year - on - year, and downstream payment collection is poor. With high inventory pressure, the driving force is still weak. At a low valuation, attention should be paid to cost - side changes, and operations should be cautious. Soda ash supply has rebounded to 700,000 tons, with high inventory pressure, and futures prices continued the weak pattern. There are few maintenance plans in June. After upstream price concessions, the industry still has profits, and supply will remain at a high level. Downstream users mainly make rigid purchases and have a weak willingness to replenish inventory. There is a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry, and the subsequent ignition speed will slow down or even cold - repair may occur. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations, and in the long term, supply pressure remains, so a high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [9]

不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | Millio | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | 黄金 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | な☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜黄金偏强震荡,白银波动有限。美国5月ADP就业人数新增3.7万人大幅低于预期和前值,非制造业PMI降 至49.9为2024年6月以来的最低,关税背景下经济承压,聚焦周五非农指引。美联储方面近期表态谨慎,特 朗普再次催促降息。贵金属处于震荡局面，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路。 ★关税-①传美加协议可能在下周达成，加总理：若谈判未能取得成功，准备对美国采取报复措施；②欧盟 贸易官员：与美谈判正在按正确的方向稳步推进;③英国首相:非常有信心能在非常短的时间内降低美国的 关税；④美商务部长：将在月底之前完成分析 ...

报告说明 关 迪 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/30 | | 2025/5/26 | 至 | 2025/5/30 | | | 棕榈油 | 8060.00 | 棕榈油 | | | 0.67% | | | 生猪 | 13605.00 | 生猪 | | | 0.67% | | | 豆粕 | 2968.00 | 豆粕 | | | 0.54% | | | 玉米 | 2336.00 | 玉米 | | | 0.39% | | | 铜 | 77600.00 | 铜 | | -0.24% | | | | PTA | 4700.00 | PTA | | -0.34% | | | | 铝 | 20070.00 | 铝 | | -0.42% | | | | 白银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: なな女 な女女 [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper main contract closed up above 78,000 yuan. Today, spot copper price adjusted to 78,415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium narrowed to 90 yuan, and Guangdong copper was at a discount of 15 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,200 tons to 148,800 tons this week. Suggest to short on rebounds or actively roll over contracts [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined today. East China spot premium slightly dropped to 90 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons. Demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction. Shanghai aluminum has resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Guinea mining area incident has temporarily subsided. Alumina has an over - supply situation in the long - term. Suggest to short on highs for both aluminum and alumina [3] Zinc - Overseas mines are expected to increase output in Q2 compared to Q1. Domestic CZSPT's Q3 2025 import ore TC guidance price is 80 - 100 dollars/dry ton. Zinc social inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level, but total supply of zinc ingots and zinc alloys will increase. Consumption off - season is emerging. Suggest to short on rebounds [4] Lead - Thursday, SMM 1 lead average price rose by 75 yuan to 16,500 yuan/ton. High spot - futures price difference promotes warehousing. Lead - acid battery consumption is in the off - season. SMM lead social inventory increased to 53,900 tons. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures price oscillated downwards. Trade conflicts have spread to the steel sector. Stainless steel supply remains high, and consumption peak season is ending. Philippines nickel ore supply is expected to increase. Suggest to short on rebounds [7] Tin - Shanghai tin weighted price oscillated below the annual line. Today, spot tin price increased by 4,100 yuan to 259,600 yuan. Low - grade tin复产 may be more difficult than expected. Suggest to hold previous high - level short positions and roll over contracts on rebounds [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. Total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 131,600 tons, downstream inventory increased by 800 tons, and smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. Mid - stream production increased by 3% month - on - month. Suggest to participate in the oscillatory rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures slightly declined. Supply is increasing while demand growth in photovoltaic and organic silicon slows down. High inventory persists. Although there are signs of oversold, the downward trend remains. Suggest to maintain a bearish view [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures decreased with reduced positions. Domestic distributed demand declined. June downstream production plans are tightened, while polysilicon production is expected to increase. Inventory pressure rises slightly. Price tends to oscillate weakly [11]

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货成交一般,基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱纺企顺价走货，市场信心不足，节后价格暂变化不大。近期下 游开机缓慢走低,成品库存有所增加,压力有所增加,反观棉花现货价格坚挺，优质资源逐渐减少,基差持续偏强,市场对于 后期库存有偏紧的预期。宏观方面，中美谈判情况并不顺利，继续关注后续情况。美棉种植进度偏慢，天 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | 女女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面下探回升。本周螺纹表需环比大幅下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上 升,库存开始累积。铁水产量逐步回落,整体仍处于相对高位,负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看,基建 改善幅度有限,制造业景气度放缓,地产销售复苏缺乏持续性,新开工、施工继续大幅下滑,美国继续提高关 税冲击钢材出 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans and related products is not explicitly stated, but for soybeans and soybean meal, it is short - term bearish; for soybean oil and palm oil, it is expected to be range - bound; for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is short - term bearish; for corn, it is expected to be weakly bearish in a volatile pattern; for live pigs, it is short - term bearish; for eggs, it is cautious and wait - and - see. The ratings for each product are as follows: - Soybeans: Not explicitly rated, but short - term bearish for soybeans and soybean meal [3] - Soybean oil and palm oil: Range - bound [4] - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: Short - term bearish [6] - Corn: Weakly bearish in a volatile pattern [7] - Live pigs: Short - term bearish [8] - Eggs: Cautious and wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and trade policies. Supply is generally abundant in the short - term, and demand is relatively weak. Weather will be a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term [2][3][4][6] - For different agricultural products, there are specific influencing factors. For example, the supply of imported soybeans is increasing, the demand for terminal feed is weak, and the trade between China and the US is uncertain; the relationship between China and Canada affects the rapeseed market; new wheat affects the corn market; the supply of live pigs is increasing, and the egg market is affected by previous chicken - chick replenishment and the off - season of demand [3][6][7][8][9] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are hovering at a low level. A bidding procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be noted. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is suitable for the growth of soybeans. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant due to a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports. The price of US soybeans in the medium - term will be affected by weather and is expected to be volatile and bullish. Weather will also be the main factor driving the price of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Soybean meal futures continue to rise with reduced positions, while the domestic spot price continues to fall. The national mainstream price has dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, and the decline has been significant since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive at ports in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. The supply is becoming more abundant but the increase rate is narrowing. Oil mills are operating at a high rate, and the soybean meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. The terminal feed demand is weak. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and it is short - term bearish. Pay attention to the upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are in a correction state, and the oil - meal ratio is correcting. The crushing profit of domestic soybeans in the near - month shipping schedule is poor. The short - term weather in the US is generally beneficial to soybean crops. In the medium - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and the domestic oil - meal futures will follow the US soybean market. The domestic soybean spot market will face the pressure of a large number of arrivals. The arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in a production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. It is expected that soybean and palm oil will maintain a range - bound trend [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector has stabilized today, reversing the decline in the past two days. The communication between China and Canada during the Paris meeting is considered a possible warming of bilateral economic and trade relations, but whether there will be a turning point remains to be seen. If the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will be more abundant, and rapeseed oil may face more pressure due to seasonal demand differences. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the bio - diesel policy of the US and Canada and the weather in the new - crop production area. It is expected that the domestic rapeseed futures price will be under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade expectations and overseas weather [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise with reduced positions. The spot price of corn in Northeast China remains stable, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. The price difference between new wheat and corn is gradually narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - price corn areas are starting to replace corn with wheat. The overall demand is weak, the acceptance capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. With the listing of new wheat, the supply of corn in circulation will increase. It is recommended that investors be cautious when going long, and in a volatile pattern, the weak - demand situation is expected to be weakly bearish [7] Live Pigs - The live - pig futures are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the spot price is generally declining. The inventory of breeding sows in the sample continued to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the planned slaughter volume in June will increase by 1% month - on - month, with the average daily slaughter volume expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. Due to the continuous recovery of the number of newborn piglets, the supply of live pigs will generally increase in the future. Group pig enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter, which will further increase the supply pressure. The spot price may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the policy aims to stabilize pig prices, and the supply pressure in the long - term will be reduced through measures such as reducing the weight of pigs, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing the sow capacity. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce the weight of pigs [8] Eggs - The egg futures are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the far - month contracts are showing a weak downward trend. The spot price of eggs is stable today. Although the current spot price of eggs has entered a low - valuation range, compared with the historical bottom of egg prices, there is still room for decline. The future pressure comes from the increasing production capacity due to the large - scale replenishment of chicken chicks and the off - season of demand during the plum - rain season. It is necessary to continue to observe the loss of egg - farmers and the process of culling old hens [9]

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Coking Coal: Rebound or Reversal?" [2] - Analyst: Cao Ying, Chief Analyst of Ferrous Metals at Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: June 4, 2025 [3] Report Core View - The fundamental situation of coking coal has not undergone a fundamental reversal, facing concerns about downstream production cuts, rejection of restocking at all links, and a continued oversupply situation at the production and import ends, which is continuously verified by the inventory accumulation trend. However, there are indeed some marginal changes, with the market most concerned about the subsequent impact of the dismissal of the Mongolian Prime Minister [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Current Market: Invariance vs. Change - The fundamentals of coking coal remain unchanged with downstream demand concerns, rejection of restocking, and oversupply, but there are marginal changes such as the Mongolian Prime Minister dismissal event [6]. - There is a reduction in domestic coking coal supply. Some private mines have minor production cuts, and during the June safety production month, state - owned large mines have some top - bin production cuts, and some mines are shut down for rectification due to accidents [9]. Impact of Other Factors - The strong momentum of export growth has weakened [12]. - Thermal coal is about to enter the demand peak season. The 5500K port price of thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - end decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blended coking coal [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market situation of various soft commodities is complex, with different influencing factors for each. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, while for some, there are specific trading opportunities such as the potential for pulp to go long on significant dips and the possibility of a rebound in rubber [2][3][6][7] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with overall commodity rebound in the afternoon. Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable and slightly stronger. Pure - cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, and market confidence was insufficient. Downstream startup declined slowly, and finished - product inventory increased. Cotton spot prices were firm, and high - quality resources decreased, leading to an expected tight inventory. The Sino - US negotiation was not smooth. US cotton planting progress was slow, with a planting rate of 66% as of June 1, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The focus of the international market is on Brazilian sugar production, with a relatively bearish supply expectation. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Thailand in the third quarter is beneficial for sugarcane growth. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Due to the continuous decline of US sugar, the sugar import profit rebounded, and the import volume is expected to increase. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, which was beneficial for prices, and the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly. However, the downward trend of US sugar limited the upside of Zhengzhou sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. In Shandong, market sales were slow, and merchants were cautious in purchasing. In Shaanxi, there was little remaining inventory in cold storage, mainly in northern Shaanxi. Cold - storage owners were more willing to sell, and transactions increased slightly. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. The western production areas were affected by high temperatures and windy weather during the flowering period, which may affect fruit - setting rate and quality. However, the overall flower quantity was sufficient, and there were different estimates of the output. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Rubber (RU&NR&BR) fluctuated strongly today. The domestic new - energy vehicle countryside campaign improved market sentiment. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the external butadiene export price was stable. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period, and major domestic and foreign production areas were fully tapped. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance or reduced load, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate rebounded slightly. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded slightly. Tire inventory decreased, and some tire enterprises had holidays during the Dragon Boat Festival. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao dropped to 610,000 tons, and the domestic butadiene port inventory increased slightly to 285,000 tons. The downstream demand weakened, natural rubber supply increased, synthetic rubber supply decreased, spot inventory increased, cost support strengthened, and there were favorable policies. The strategy is to bet on a rebound after over - selling [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly today. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Hebei U - needle and B - needle was 5,320 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was 4,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.161 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and pulp demand was still weak. The import volume may decline. Pulp valuation was low, and there was strong support near the previous low. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. Regarding supply, the external price of radiata pine continued to decline, and the production willingness of external suppliers increased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume of radiata pine in June will be low. In terms of demand, the daily average outbound volume of ports remained above 60,000 cubic meters after entering the off - season, showing relatively good demand. As of May 30, the total national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.79 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. The national log inventory continued to be destocked. The radiata pine log inventory also started to be destocked last week, reducing inventory pressure. Overall, due to poor profits, the shipping volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, which is beneficial for the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]