1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Bullish (One Star) - Propylene, Polyolefin, Plastic, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 1.2 Bearish (Three Stars) - Ethylene Glycol [1] 1.3 Neutral (White Stars) - Styrene, PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Glass, Soda Ash [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures of various chemical products show different trends. Some are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and international oil prices, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Different product sectors have different influencing factors, including upstream raw material prices, downstream demand changes, and overseas supply uncertainties [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate widely around the 5 - day moving average. Low enterprise inventory supports prices, but downstream cost pressure and low international oil prices may drag down sentiment [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures have narrow - range fluctuations. For polyethylene, cost support weakens, supply pressure is high, and demand is limited, so prices will be weak. For polypropylene, inventory is transferred to the middle - link, but downstream demand is poor, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [2] 3.2 Polyester - Falling oil prices but firm PX support PTA prices. PTA has increased device maintenance due to poor efficiency, and terminal demand is weakening. For ethylene glycol, supply pressure is high, and the market is expected to be bearish. Short fiber has no new investment pressure but demand is expected to weaken, and bottle chip demand is declining with over - capacity as a long - term issue [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The narrowing of the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread makes the market focus on Asian aromatic hydrocarbon outflows. Pure benzene prices rebound strongly, but the sustainability of exports to the US is to be observed. Styrene futures rise, with cost support from pure benzene and supply reduction and increased export demand [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are in low - level oscillations. Overseas device operation is high, and demand is expected to be weak. Urea futures fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural demand is weakening, but industrial demand is picking up, and supply remains high [6] 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to decline due to weakened cost support. Although exports to India may improve, the overall demand boost is limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend, with cost support insufficient and downstream demand weak [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continues to decline as the cost side moves down. The industry inventory decreases, and the supply - demand pattern is in surplus in the long - term. Glass also declines, with high intermediate - link inventory. Although cost support exists at the current price, it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, policy uncertainties, and overseas market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw Shanghai copper trading with a short - position and a negative line in a volatile manner. SMM spot copper was reported at 86,435 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 80 and 55 yuan respectively. SMM social inventory increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons this week. Wait for the US September non - farm payroll data at night. The Fed meeting minutes showed large differences, and the probability of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 87,000 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak and volatile trend today. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowed to - 10 yuan, - 100 yuan, and - 125 yuan respectively. The non - ferrous metals market as a whole has been adjusting with reduced positions recently. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, and the inventory build - up indicates poor performance. The adjustment may continue. Pay attention to the support of the middle Bollinger Band. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,800 yuan today. Scrap aluminum supplies are tight, and the tax rate policy adjustment is still unclear. Both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels. Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The oversupply situation is hard to change, and there is no movement during the heating season. Spot indices in various regions dropped by 5 yuan today. Alumina is likely to operate weakly before large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - The impact of environmental protection in the north has been lifted, and downstream purchasing has accelerated. SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 152,700 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased to 45,000 tons. LME zinc broke through the support level and declined, but the tight overseas spot market still supports a high 0 - 3 month spot premium of $152.14 per ton. The split structure of domestic and overseas inventories is gradually being repaired, and the three - month import loss of zinc has narrowed to around 3,000 yuan per ton. There is still profit space for the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy on the futures market. Both domestic and overseas mine TC have decreased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices has improved. Shanghai zinc is expected to stabilize above the 60 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton [4] Lead - After the lead price correction, downstream buyers were active. After the delivery, the SHFE lead warehouse receipts gradually decreased to 30,600 tons, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. The low inventory level supports the futures price. SMM 1 lead has a discount of 110 yuan per ton to the nearby contract. The profit of recycled lead is under pressure, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 264,000 tons, with a 0 - 3 month discount of $27.39 per ton. The overseas market's oversupply pressure remains unchanged, and LME lead still has room for further correction. There is an expectation that the lead ingot import window will open, and Shanghai lead lacks the momentum to rebound. The lower support is tentatively seen at 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, and market trading was dull. After the US government ended the shutdown, the positive news was exhausted, and the market began to worry about the stability of overseas liquidity. Pay attention to whether the Fed will take actions to ease the liquidity pressure recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 3,900 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 500 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel declined, and the price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 906 yuan per nickel point. The support brought by the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 53,100 tons, nickel iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 6,700 tons to 952,000 tons. The bullish factors for Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak trend with a downward - shifting center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a negative line and reduced positions. There is an environmental risk in a rare earth and tin mining area in Malaysia, and the mining area is under rectification. Due to the lack of specific data, the current impact on the tin market is limited. The domestic spot tin price remained unchanged at 291,500 yuan, with a discount of 100 yuan to the delivery month. The resumption rhythm of low - grade mines and the efficiency of capacity rectification of Indonesia's PT Timah are the keys to deepening the tight supply in the future. Hold long - term short positions with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - There is a battle at the integer - level price of lithium carbonate, and market trading is active. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and about 20 lithium iron phosphate enterprises have reached full - capacity operation. This phenomenon is expected to continue until the end of the year, mainly because downstream battery cell factories have a large increase in orders: the pure - electric heavy - truck project is continuously advancing, the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" for cars, and the shortage of energy - storage battery cells. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons again, and traders increased their inventory. The sentiment in the middle - stream has improved, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,055. The lithium carbonate futures price is strengthening, inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream demand is strong. Technically, it has broken through the range. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - After a short - term upward rush, the industrial silicon futures decreased in positions and declined today. The spot price increased slightly by 100 yuan per ton, and the price of downstream organic silicon DMC remained stable at 13,100 yuan per ton (SMM). Based on the "anti - involution" principle, the organic silicon industry plans to promote a joint emission - reduction plan in December, which is expected to affect the demand for industrial silicon by about 4,000 tons (corresponding to a reduction of 8,000 tons of DMC production), which is more cautious than the previous 30% reduction expectation. Overall, industrial silicon is in a technical correction in the short term, and the price is still expected to rise with the pricing repair expectation of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined synchronously with industrial silicon. The spot price of N - type polysilicon for re - feeding fluctuated within a narrow range, quoted by SMM at 49,700 - 54,900 yuan per ton. The overall demand in the photovoltaic market is weak, the marginal decline in terminal purchasing is obvious, and there is no intention to purchase domestic products overseas. There is still an expectation of reducing production in the component sector in December, and the inventory pressure in the battery cell sector is large. Although the polysilicon industry has cut production, the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited, and the price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ (representing a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the market) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, and the cost support is loosening. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether favorable policies will be introduced in the real estate sector [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are gradually becoming looser, and the market is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The bottom - support expectations for silicon manganese and silicon iron have shifted downward, and the prices are under pressure [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel improved this week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory started to decline [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills are generally in a loss state. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level [2]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments are strong, and the shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume has declined, and port inventory is in an accumulating trend [3]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The molten iron is in a seasonal production - cut trend, and there is still room for further decline in the future [3]. Coke - **Production and Inventory**: Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream customers are purchasing on - demand, and traders' purchasing意愿 is general [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The coke market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4]. Coking Coal - **Production and Inventory**: Coking coal production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Price Outlook**: The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the high expectation of coal mine supply guarantee and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [6]. Silicon Manganese - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. Manganese ore inventory increased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remains at a high level. The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level [7]. Silicon Iron - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Silicon iron supply remains at a high level, and on - balance inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level, export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the production of magnesium metal has increased [8].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market showing a mainly weak - oscillating trend [2]. - Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [3]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost fluctuations, and different commodities have different market outlooks and investment suggestions [2 - 48]. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.77%. The U.S. is promoting a Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 342,600 barrels last week. The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not appeared, and the market is mainly weak - oscillating [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The logic of high - sulfur fuel oil being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong due to supply - side disruptions, but there is medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may become looser in the medium term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected import cost of international LPG in December is rising. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units boosts the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting operations, and the demand for the combustion end has improved. LPG is expected to be strong - oscillating [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information in this report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the price has declined. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the price may be weak - oscillating [17]. - **Steam Coal**: No relevant information in this report. - **Uranium**: No relevant information in this report. Metals - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight, precious metals were strong - oscillating with sharp intraday fluctuations. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed serious differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. Precious metals are waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Platinum & Palladium**: No relevant information in this report. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose, and SHFE copper was oscillating with reduced positions. The Fed's meeting minutes showed differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Chile raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 87,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum was oscillating. This week, non - ferrous metals as a whole adjusted, and SHFE aluminum fell back from a high level. The market is still looking for economic prospects and interest rate cut clues, and the aluminum market is expected to be short - term oscillating [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of both domestic and overseas mines decreased, and smelters' production cuts in November gradually materialized. Domestic zinc social inventories decreased, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating and medium - term bearish [8]. - **Lead**: The external and domestic inventories increased, and the market fundamentals weakened. The support level for SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 17,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel had narrow - range fluctuations, and the market trading was dull. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel - iron increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose first and then fell, and SHFE tin opened high and closed low. The resumption of production in low - grade mines and the efficiency of Indonesia's production capacity rectification are the keys to deepening the tight supply. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 295,000 yuan [11]. - **Rare Earths**: No relevant information in this report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The two - olefin futures continued to decline, with a divergence between short - term futures and spot prices. The supply pressure of plastic and polypropylene is difficult to alleviate, and the long - term trend is bearish [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The cost support for PVC weakened, and it continued to decline. The demand for PVC exports to India improved, but the overall demand boost was limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend [29]. - **PX & PTA**: Oil prices fell, but PX was strong, supporting PTA prices. PTA's profitability was poor, and the number of device overhauls increased. The terminal demand for PTA weakened [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the medium - term demand is weak [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is fading, and there is long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. - **Glass**: Glass continued to decline. The inventory pressure in the middle - stream is high, and the profit is narrowing. The follow - up may fluctuate with the cost side [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the price of Thai raw materials rose. The demand is slowly weakening, and the supply of natural rubber is decreasing while that of synthetic rubber is increasing [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost side of soda ash moved down, and it continued to decline. The industry inventory decreased slightly. The long - term supply is expected to be in excess [35]. Agriculture - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The night - session of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures followed the decline of U.S. soybeans. The South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the domestic soybean supply is sufficient while the crushing profit is poor [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overnight, U.S. soybean oil fell. The policy change may narrow the price difference between global vegetable oils and U.S. domestic vegetable oils. Palm oil may have a phased bottom [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the supply side. The impact of Australian rapeseed on the supply side is mainly on the March contract and far - month contracts. The short - term strategy is bearish [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of the main contract of soybean No.1 futures fell rapidly from a high level. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased, and imported soybeans may be strong - oscillating in the short term [39]. - **Corn**: The night - session of Dalian corn futures was weak - oscillating. The new corn supply in Northeast China increased less, and farmers were more reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract may continue to correct [40]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pig**: The pig futures were weak - oscillating, and the spot price rebounded slightly. The pig price may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [41]. - **Chicken & Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to fall, and the market may be weak in the short term. Hold short positions in near - month contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton fell back, waiting for the weekly export data. The domestic Xinjiang cotton purchase is basically over, and the new cotton listing brings pressure to the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be range - oscillating [43]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, U.S. sugar was oscillating. India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush sugar, and the domestic market's focus is on the new - season output forecast [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price of apples was oscillating at a high level. The spot price of cold - stored apples is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contracts [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price of timber was oscillating. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand supports the price. The low inventory provides strong support [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures continued to fall. The port inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was average. The price may continue to correct [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The market has digested the expected price increase of container shipping in early December. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the far - month contracts are expected to be low - level oscillating [20]. - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares were boosted by the rise of heavy - weight sectors, and the performance of futures contracts was differentiated. The short - term stock market should adopt a relatively defensive strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable star system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable star system [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined in a comparable star system [1] Core Views - The supply - side contraction has not led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited. The market for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil has different supply - side situations, and the medium - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil and the supply pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil need attention. The asphalt market is under long - term negative pressure, while the LPG market is expected to be bullish due to supply - demand tightening [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC01 contract rising 0.48% during the day. WTI is sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations above the marginal production cost of US shale oil at $50 per barrel. As the US sanctions on Russian oil take effect on November 21, major Indian buyers have suspended purchasing Russian crude oil for December delivery. However, the supply - side contraction has not led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and last week's US API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels unexpectedly, limiting the oil price rebound space [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The logic of high - sulfur being weaker than low - sulfur continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong recently due to supply - side fluctuations. Overseas refinery operations are unstable, the Kuwait Azur refinery has no clear restart news, and Kuwait's fuel oil shipments have been low since November. The continuous strength of diesel cracking suppresses the overseas supply of low - sulfur fuel oil. China's application for a low - sulfur export quota conversion to refined oil at the end of the year is 490,000 tons, and CNOOC's production declined in October. The end - of - year export pressure has eased marginally, and the fourth - quarter shipping fuel peak season and the improvement of Sino - US trade relations boost the fundamentals. However, the planned maintenance of the Dangote refinery's RFOC unit at the end of December may increase the low - sulfur loading volume, and medium - term supply pressure still exists. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Russia's shipments to Asia increased by 0.9% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons in November, but the actual export after November 21 is uncertain. With the steady production increase in the Middle East and the end of the power generation peak season, local exports are expected to increase continuously, and the current feedstock demand may decline after the new quota is issued, making the medium - term supply pattern more relaxed [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - $11 per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken. The weekly shipment volume has been decreasing month - on - month since November and is at a low level in the same period in the past four years. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory has continued to slow down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded after reaching an inflection point at the end of October. The expectation of rush - construction demand in the final year of the 14th Five - Year Plan has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule. The negative signal that the end - of - year demand is lower than that of last year has emerged, and the market bearish sentiment has increased. The long - term fundamentals are bearish for BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The expected import cost of international LPG in December is expected to increase. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the significant temperature drop in many places has improved the demand for the combustion end. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The supply - demand tightening has boosted the LPG to be bullish [3]

今日盘面震荡回落。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续下降。热卷需求趋稳，产量继续回落，累库节奏放缓。 铁水产量有所回升,下游承接能力不足,钢厂亏损比例扩大,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等 地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看,她产投资降幅继续扩大,基建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏弱,钢材出口 高位有所回落。需求预期仍偏悲观，成本端煤焦继续回落，盘面反弹动能不足，下方仍有支撑，整体低位区间震荡为主。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面震荡。供应端，全球发运偏强，旺季发运量预计维持高位，国内到港量阶段回落至年内均值水平以下,周初港存 有所回落，短期存在一定结构性犹动。需求端，淡季钢材需求偏弱，钢厂盈利情况恶化，铁水上周阶段反弹但仍然处于季节性 城产趋势中,预计未来有进一步减产空间,就产速度或有所放缓。宏观层面处于政策真空期，暂时缺少预期驱动。铁矿石基本 面边际转宽松,我们预计盘面走势震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格大幅下行。焦化利润依旧一般，日产小幅下降。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采购,库存稍有减少,贸易商 采购意愿一般。整体来看,碳元素供应充裕,下游铁水回到高位区间,对原材料 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not rated [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a low-level range oscillation. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, the cost side of coal and coke continues to decline, and the upward momentum of the disk is insufficient, but there is still support below [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate with a marginal loosening of fundamentals due to strong global shipments, weak steel demand in the off-season, and a deteriorating profitability of steel mills [3]. - The coke price may oscillate weakly with a general coking profit, a slight decrease in daily production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [4]. - The coking coal price may oscillate weakly with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slight increase in production, and a strong pressure from steel mills to reduce prices [5]. - The silicon manganese price has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation due to an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a slow increase in inventory, and a small increase in manganese ore inventory [6]. - The silicon iron price may have a loosening bottom support with an increased expectation of mine supply guarantee, a continuous decline in inventory, and an overall resilient demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk oscillated downward. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, production decreased synchronously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2]. - The molten iron production increased slightly, but the downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, the proportion of steel mill losses expanded, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage was high, gradually alleviating the supply pressure [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports declined from a high level [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments were strong, and the shipment volume in the peak season was expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume declined to below the annual average level, and the port inventory declined at the beginning of the week, with certain short-term structural fluctuations [3]. - On the demand side, the steel demand in the off-season was weak, the profitability of steel mills deteriorated, the molten iron production rebounded last week but was still in the seasonal production reduction trend, and there was further room for production cuts in the future, although the production reduction speed might slow down [3]. - At the macro level, it was in a policy vacuum period, temporarily lacking expected drivers [3]. Coke - The price dropped significantly during the day. The coking profit was still average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing willingness of traders was average [4]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [4]. Coking Coal - The price dropped significantly during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and the price dropped accordingly. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated [5]. - The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal-producing areas, and the relevant impacts needed attention [5]. - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, the downstream molten iron production returned to a high level, the demand for raw materials was still resilient, but the steel profit level was average, and the pressure from steel mills to reduce prices was strong [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [6]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a relatively high level, and the silicon manganese inventory increased slowly [6]. - The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, the spot ore prices fluctuated quickly following the disk, and the manganese ore inventory increased slightly, with no prominent contradictions [6]. Silicon Iron - The price dropped during the day. The market's expectation of mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [7]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high level. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall resilient demand [7]. - The silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

| Millio | > 國發期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。美国官方数据缺失阶段，ADP发布最新数据显示截至11月1日的四周内，美国企业平均 每周减少约2500个就业岗位。近期美联储多位官员发言偏鹰压制降息预期,市场继续权衡经济和货币政策前 景。贵金属高位震荡，耐心等待新驱动以及技术面的方向性指引。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 ★美联储 --- ①特朗普暗示美联储主席人选已定，抱怨解雇鲍威尔遵人阻拦。②巴尔金:同意鲍威尔的观 点,12月降息并非板上钉钉,通胀和就业均面临 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Some are in a state of range - bound, some are expected to be weak, and some show signs of super - decline and rebound. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, with some suggesting temporary waiting and some suggesting attention to arbitrage opportunities [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is concentrated on the market, and demand is average, putting pressure on prices. However, the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13th, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions, and the spinning mills' new orders are few. The US Department of Agriculture's November report is bearish, with the US cotton production significantly increased. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and due to good weather, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. In October, China's sugar imports increased, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot market has sporadic transactions of apples in the warehouse, with prices slightly rising. As of November 14th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.3577 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is a high divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the inventory - removal situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose today. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China has entered a production - reduction period. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the spot inventory is rising. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures continued to fall today. As of November 13th, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation is strong, but the downstream procurement intention is general. After the basis converges, the price has corrected. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price remains stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation continued to rise, but the domestic spot price is weak, and the trader's import willingness is low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory is low. Low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Styrene: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PTA: ★★☆, meaning a clear bullish trend and the market situation is developing [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend and a relatively balanced short - term market with poor trading opportunities [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend and a relatively balanced short - term market with poor trading opportunities [1] - PVC: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend and a relatively balanced short - term market with poor trading opportunities [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The olefin - polyolefin market shows a mixed situation, with downstream demand recovering in some aspects but supply pressure remaining in others [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market has different trends, with overseas pure benzene having a short - term rebound and styrene futures rising due to cost and supply - demand factors [3] - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors such as international relations and device adjustments, with different products facing different supply - demand and price trends [5] - The coal - chemical market is generally bearish, with methanol facing high inventory and weak demand, and urea having potential downward risks [6] - The chlor - alkali market has a weak trend, with PVC and caustic soda both facing cost and demand challenges [7] - The soda - glass market is in a bearish situation, with both products facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related issues [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures contracts closed lower, but downstream demand increased due to the restart of maintenance devices. Propylene inventory is low, supporting spot prices [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure persists, seasonal demand is declining, and inventory is accumulating. However, the short - term decline is limited, while the medium - to - long - term bearish pattern continues [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded due to supply shortages in the US and overseas blending oil demand, but the rebound in South Korea lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene still faces high imports and weak downstream demand [3] - Styrene futures closed higher, driven by the increase in pure benzene prices and a tight supply - demand balance. Although port inventories are high, there is an expectation of continuous inventory reduction [3] Polyester - PX prices rebounded due to factors such as international relations and device shutdowns. PTA has poor profitability, with increased device maintenance and weakening demand. Ethylene glycol has increasing supply pressure and is expected to accumulate inventory [5] - Short fiber has no new investment pressure, but demand is expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand is weakening, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures remained in a low - level oscillation, with high overseas device operation rates and sufficient on - the - way supplies. Demand is expected to be weak, and de - stocking is difficult [6] - Urea spot prices increased slightly. Agricultural demand is weakening, but industrial demand has rebounded. Supply remains high, and there is a possibility of price decline after market sentiment stabilizes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to decline due to weak cost support. Although exports to India improved, the overall demand increase was limited. Supply is high, and demand is weak [7] - Caustic soda is in a downward trend. Although there are still profits in chlor - alkali integration, cost support is insufficient. Supply is high, and demand is weak [7] Soda - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline due to a decrease in cost support. Inventory decreased slightly, but the supply - demand surplus pattern persists in the long term [8] - Glass continued to decline, with high intermediate inventory and weak demand. The price is expected to follow cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]