Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - PX: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - PTA: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Short Fiber: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Bottle Chip: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Methanol: Bullish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Urea: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - PVC: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend, with a relatively clear investment opportunity [1] - Glass: Neutral trend, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand have significant impacts on prices [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot prices rise slightly due to demand support and limited external supply [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillate. Polyethylene supply changes little, and downstream demand is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and seasonal demand is in a slump [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Although there is an expectation of supply improvement, current inventory pressure is high [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Due to the weakening of raw material pure benzene, it is expected to run weakly in the short term [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices oscillate. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA is expected to have its processing margin repaired [4] - Ethylene glycol supply improves marginally, but it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival, remaining weak in the medium term [4] - Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakens, and it is mainly driven by cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol has insufficient upward momentum, and the market is in a state of long - short game, likely to continue to oscillate in the short term [5] - Urea prices rise in an oscillating manner. Although supply pressure is partially relieved by exports, the upward space may be limited [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC shows a slightly strong oscillating trend. Although there is supply pressure, it is not advisable to be overly bearish due to cost support [6] - Caustic soda runs weakly due to high supply and insufficient demand, and attention should be paid to profit changes [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillates strongly. Although there is a supply improvement expectation, it is in a pattern of oversupply in the long term [7] - Glass prices run weakly. Demand is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans (domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, while the US soybean market will likely oscillate with an upward bias, influenced by South American weather and export factors [2][3] - The soybean meal supply in the domestic market is ample, which exerts downward pressure on prices. The 05 contract's upward breakthrough depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts [3] - The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range. Although there are some positive supply - side signals, high inventory levels may limit price rebounds [3] - The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors and is expected to trade in a range in the short term [5] - Corn futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels, with concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - Live pig prices may form a double - bottom pattern, with a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] - The egg futures market shows a mixed performance, with the far - month contracts not suitable for chasing highs and the near - month contracts likely to be weak [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs [Soybean] - Domestic soybeans are in a sideways and slightly bullish trend, with stable and firm spot prices. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, leading to optimistic market expectations [2] - US soybeans are influenced by South American weather and export factors. South American weather is dry in parts before mid - December, and overall, US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish [2][3] [Soybean & Soybean Meal] - In the new South American season, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentina's is slow due to weather. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output is estimated to be 1.772 billion tons, a 0.9% reduction from the November forecast [3] - The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, maintaining a loose supply situation. The expected inventory at the end of December is around 900,000 tons [3] - The upward breakthrough of the 05 contract depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts. It is advisable to observe for fluctuations before looking for long - entry opportunities [3] [Soybean Oil & Palm Oil] - Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. Indonesia lowered its December export reference price and tax, which is beneficial for exports [3] - If the supply - side production cuts are sustained, it may signal a bottoming - out of prices. However, high overseas inventories may limit price rebounds [3] - US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish, which will support soybean oil prices. The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] [Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil] - The rapeseed market is in a weak and sideways trend due to a lack of trading catalysts. The arrival of Australian rapeseeds has eased supply concerns [5] - Rapeseed meal demand is weak as the aquaculture feed season is off - peak, and it is not competitive in terms of unit - protein price compared to soybean meal [5] - Rapeseed oil is mainly in a de - stocking phase. Supply depends on Australian rapeseed crushing and Russian rapeseed oil arrivals, while demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter [5] [Corn] - Corn futures are volatile at high levels, driven by strong spot prices. The supply of new grain in the north is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be volatile at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see. The 03 and 05 contracts should wait for pull - backs [6] [Live Pigs] - Live pig futures have narrow fluctuations, and spot prices are slightly lower. Southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the出栏 of second - fattened pigs [7] - Historically, the pig cycle bottom often shows a double - bottom pattern. The low price in October was likely the first bottom, and there is a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] [Eggs] - Egg futures showed a sharp rise followed by a decline, with a reduction of over 10,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are not suitable for chasing highs due to high premiums [8] - The near - month contracts are at a premium to the spot, and the spot prices are slightly weak today. The near - month contracts may be weak [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, inventory and price trends, and giving corresponding investment suggestions for each metal. 3. Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Market sentiment is bullish for the medium - long term, with high enthusiasm for long - term copper market allocation. In Q1 2026, major mines are difficult to resume production significantly, and lower long - term processing fees lead to reduced smelting capacity, increasing downward pressure on global refined copper smelting growth. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising, and the market is concerned about the change of the Japanese yen's interest rate. The manufacturing PMI of major northern - hemisphere economies is in decline at the end of the year [1]. - Domestic supply and demand show that there is no impetus for production increase. The inventory in the Q area has exceeded the peak in the mid - 1990s, and the US has difficulty in quickly digesting it. However, due to the potential of Trump's trade policy, the US is expected to import copper in 2026. The copper price may reach $11,500 - $12,000 in Q1 2026, and the domestic copper price may enter the high - level range of 92,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell at high points in the short - term and hold long positions at 88,000 - 87,800 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina has a significant surplus, with domestic operating capacity at a historical high. It will run weakly until large - scale production reduction occurs, with support at the annual low of 2,600 yuan [2]. - New production capacity is being added. Tian Shan Aluminum's second - phase project will increase production by 120,000 tons this year and another 120,000 tons in the first half of 2026. An overseas joint - venture project in Indonesia is expected to increase production by about 80,000 tons per year and reach a production capacity of 500,000 tons in October next year [2]. - The downstream demand is mixed. The overall开工 rate of downstream leading enterprises has increased by 0.45% to 62.3%, with some automotive - related fields being relatively strong, but the construction industry is still sluggish. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot discount has slightly expanded. The Shanghai aluminum price will continue to oscillate to test the previous high of 22,000 yuan [2]. Zinc - The zinc market has a supply reduction expectation, and the rebound pressure is weakening. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the output of overseas smelters has not increased significantly in Q3. The domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the smelter output is expected to decline by more than 20,000 tons in December [3]. - The consumption growth expectation is insufficient due to the real - estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, and the arrival of the off - season in the north. The Shanghai zinc price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton, with cost support [3]. Lead - The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the lead import window is open. The domestic and foreign lead prices have weakened synchronously. The domestic primary lead supply is tight, while the recycled lead has a situation of simultaneous maintenance and resumption. The lead consumption lacks an incremental expectation [4]. - The cost and consumption are in a game, and the Shanghai lead price will oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan per ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market has rebounded, with the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel prices rising. The inventory of stainless - steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the market sentiment has slightly recovered but lacks sustainability [5]. - The overall supply of the nickel industry chain is increasing, and it is more reasonable to short - sell at high positions [5]. Tin - The tin price has soared, with the London tin approaching $40,000 and the Shanghai tin breaking through the 200,000 - yuan mark. The supply is affected by transportation interruptions in Congo (Kinshasa) and the resumption of production in Myanmar. The consumption highlights are in the semiconductor and automotive integrated - circuit fields [6]. - The inventory level is neutral. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and spot hedging short - sellers should be equipped with hedging strategies [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, with the spot price rising. The downstream production is active, and the total market inventory has decreased. The mining end price is strong [7]. - The overall fundamentals are strong, and short - sellers are at a disadvantage [7]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has a stable upward trend in the range. The supply in the Sichuan - Yunnan region is expected to decrease due to the dry season, and the demand is expected to decrease by about 4,000 tons due to the joint emission - reduction plan of the organic silicon industry [8]. - The social inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 550,000 tons, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short - term [8]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price has increased, with the 2512 contract breaking through 60,000 yuan per ton. The production in November decreased by more than expected, and there is still room for downward adjustment in December. The demand for silicon wafers and components has decreased significantly [9]. - The factory inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons. The exchange has adjusted the speculative margin, and the market sentiment has cooled down [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market for soft commodities shows diverse trends. Some products like cotton and pulp have specific price - related and supply - demand factors influencing their market conditions, and different investment suggestions are given for each commodity based on their unique situations [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, breaking through the shock range. Although new cotton production increased significantly this year, commercial inventory is not high and the sales progress is fast, providing strong support to the market. Currently in the off - season, overall demand remains stable. The market has certain positive expectations for the new - year planting in China. As of November 27th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 528.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.1 million tons. As of November 15th, the cotton commercial inventory was 363.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.43 million tons. The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with insufficient new orders. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can consider hedging opportunities, and the operation should be to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, the US sugar price pulled back. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased this year, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss of sugar production, and the sugar production will remain at a high level. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started sugarcane crushing, and due to good weather conditions, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures were weak. In October, the import volume of syrup decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively high, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the next sugar - making season. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. In the spot market, transactions in Shandong were mainly for small and medium - sized apples, and other apple sources had few transactions. In the northwest region, merchants packed their own apple sources and sent them to the market, and the mainstream price remained stable. As of November 28th, the national cold - storage apple inventory in the new season was 729.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.21%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory volume to sales expectations. There is a high divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction situation [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - number rubber (NR) rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) rose sharply. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price increased. The global natural rubber supply will shift from the high - yield period to the low - yield period, and the Yunnan production area in China has entered the suspension - cutting period first. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week. The demand for rubber showed average performance. Natural rubber continued to accumulate inventory, while synthetic rubber started to reduce inventory. The cost support was stable, and market sentiment improved. The strategy is to go long on rebounds and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose significantly, and the 01 contract significantly reduced its positions. The spot price followed the futures price up. As of November 27th, 2025, the inventory of the mainstream sample ports of Chinese pulp was 217.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, the supply is still relatively loose, and the pulp demand continues to be weak. The pulp price rebounded significantly after falling near the previous low, and the medium - term trend may still be range - bound. The operation should be to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the price quoted at Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. The external price quote is still high, and the domestic spot price remains weak. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may continue to remain at a low level. The port delivery volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The low inventory provides certain support to the price, and the operation should be to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Steel market has supply pressure easing but weak domestic demand, with the spot price relatively firm and the futures price continuing to rebound [2] - Iron ore market has a loose supply-demand situation, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal markets have expectations of downstream replenishment, with the coke price likely to maintain a rebound and the coking coal price likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have the futures price fluctuating, with the supply decreasing and the inventory slightly declining [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread: Surface demand and production decline, inventory decreases, and the market continues to decline [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand declines, production increases, inventory slowly decreases, and the pressure remains to be alleviated [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments increase, domestic arrivals decline but remain high, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - Demand: Steel surface demand is low, iron water is in a production reduction trend, and the demand has room to weaken [3] - Market: The macro atmosphere is warm, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - Supply: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Demand: Downstream demand has resilience, but the steel mill's profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is strong [4] - Market: The price is expected to maintain a rebound [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Coking coal mine production increases slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreases [5] - Demand: Similar to coke [5] - Market: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory slowly accumulates [6] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds to a high level [6] - Market: The price fluctuates, and the manganese ore price rises [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply decreases, and inventory slightly declines [7] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds, export demand declines, and metal magnesium production increases [7] - Market: The price fluctuates, and there are expectations of cost reduction [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Commodities Market**: The commodities market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like crude oil face short - term geopolitical - driven price boosts but long - term inventory build - up risks. Precious metals are influenced by economic data and interest - rate expectations. Base metals are affected by supply and demand fundamentals, as well as macroeconomic factors. Energy and chemical products also have their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends [1][2][3]. - **Agricultural Products and Livestock**: Agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as planting progress, weather conditions, and supply - demand balance. Livestock prices are related to production cycles and consumption seasons [35][40]. - **Financial Markets**: The stock and bond markets are influenced by macroeconomic data, central bank policies, and international market trends. The stock market shows sector rotation, while the bond market has a structured differentiation [47][48]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions boost short - term prices, but large inventory build - up is expected in the long - term. Consider shorting on price rebounds [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil cost - end fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply is affected by geopolitical risks and mid - term supply is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure may ease [21]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market has regional price differences. Demand is weak, and commercial inventory de - stocking slows. It is expected to remain weak [22]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated strongly. Silver reached a new high, while gold should be cautiously traded before breaking through the previous high. Platinum has a supply gap, and palladium is in a tight - balanced supply - demand situation. Consider buying on dips [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose. The market is driven by long - term bullish sentiment. Supply is tight, and short - term long positions can be held. Monitor spot premium changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, aluminum prices oscillated at a high level. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it will test the previous high [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc output is expected to decline, and the export window is open. The bottom is well - supported, but the consumption is in the off - season, and the rebound height is limited [7]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 1.7 - 1.73 yuan/ton. Supply and demand factors have different impacts on the price [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices face resistance in the rebound. Stainless steel inventory pressure rises. High - level shorting is more reasonable [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have high volatility. Supply and demand factors attract capital. Be cautious when chasing high prices [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price fluctuates violently at a high level. The market has large differences, and the fundamentals are strong [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It continues to oscillate. Supply and demand are both weak, and track capital sentiment [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The market has a contradiction between trading warrants and positions. The fundamentals are weak, and beware of price corrections [13]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillate narrowly. Demand and supply are both weak, and pay attention to environmental protection policies and macro - policies [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke**: The price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the demand has some resilience. The price is likely to continue to rebound [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price is likely to be strong in the short - term [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rises and then falls. Supply declines, and observe the bottom support [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounds. Supply declines, and observe the bottom support [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The price rises slightly. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - **Methanol**: The price rises sharply at night. The market has a multi - short game, and the high - level rise is restricted [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillates weakly. The current supply pressure is large, but future supply may improve [25]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounds slightly, but the short - side pressure still exists [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The prices are weak. Supply may increase slightly, and demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range. Caustic soda is weak, and pay attention to profit changes [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply improves marginally, but it is expected to accumulate inventory in the medium - term [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean planting is normal, while Argentine planting is slow. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal supply is loose [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is supported by domestic factors, and palm oil has supply - demand dynamics and price trends affected by multiple factors [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed supply eases, and the prices are expected to oscillate [37]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: Domestic soybeans oscillate strongly. Pay attention to US soybean sales and South American weather [38]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are affected by supply - demand mismatch and policy factors. Short - term high - level oscillation, and limited medium - term rebound [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton exports decline, and domestic cotton supply pressure is not large. Pay attention to commercial inventory and sales progress [42]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and domestic sugar production expectations are good [43]. - **Apple**: Apple prices oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to inventory reduction [44]. - **Timber**: The price oscillates. Low inventory supports the price [45]. - **Pulp**: The price rises slightly. Supply is loose, and demand is weak. It may oscillate in a range [46]. Livestock and Eggs - **Pig**: Pig prices continue to adjust weakly. A second bottom - testing is likely in the first half of next year [40]. - **Egg**: Egg futures have a differentiated trend. Do not chase the high price of far - month contracts [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - shares rise unilaterally, and the futures index rises. Short - term macro - liquidity is uncertain, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillate. Participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties [48]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The index drops, and the 12 - contract is expected to be weak. The 02 - contract's trend depends on spot performance, and far - month contracts are bearish [20].

不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 安如泰山 信守承诺 铜:创高驱动与跨年交投 点有成金 1. 周五，伦铜、沪铜齐涨，伦铜创历史新高，沪铜盘中最高价触及前期高位,请分析国内外铜价大幅上涨的核心因素是什么？ 答:周五夜盘伦铜再创历史纪录,直观表现依然是市场资金对中长期铜市多头配置的交易热情，这包括:金融属性层面金价与 银价的比价传导与铜平衡表支持。供应端,2025年主流铜矿山供损率高导致产出增速被持续下调，2026年尤其一季度受干扰 的大矿复产难有显著进展，同时矿冶博弈下更低的长单加工费促使中国与目本冶炼厂相继公布减少矿料产能，2026年全球精 练铜冶炼增速下调的压力大。需求端,铜继续受益于风光电、新能源汽车及储能电池消费增量,2025-2027年也将获益于AI 引领的智算数据中心投资所带动的全球用电需求及电力电网加速建设的阶段性驱动。尽管全球宏观经济环境依然面临不确定 风险,美国AI投资对该国经济的贡献甚至超过消费底盘,板块泡沫的质疑声愈高，但针对钢资源多元的消费增量方向，意味 着铜的需求增速能够越过宏观经济波动,依然达到2.5%，甚至接近3%的全球需求增速。投资视角下,普遍认为铜价相对低 估,技术形态上, ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 铜:创高驱动与跨年交投 点有成金 免责声明 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 答:沪铜加权仓量强映射,以"减仓铜价回调,增仓短线冲涨"为主，中长线市场看涨情绪浓烈。宏观方面,11月美国政府超 长停摆与日本地缘言论导致的金融流动性局部紧张，未对铜价形态产生负面影响，铜价较完整地盘整蓄势。国内现货面，对 高铜价的适应性较去年二季度明显提高，11月多数时间沪粤维持一定升水交投,国内社库基本持平在10月底18万吨附近， SMM口径库存统计虽较去年同期高近3万余吨。但炼厂年底冲产动力一般,10月、11月精炼铜产量预计都以环降为主,季节性 方面,通常年底显性库存易有一定去库。当然实际消费端更期待铜价回调,短期冲高阶段维持刚需点价,季度级别战略采购 仍可关注等待铜价调整幅度。卖出空头保值,可尝试备兑策略,适当优化保值成本。 3. 12月及明年的铜价走势怎么看?后市有哪些因素需要重点关注。 答:反映在价差上,沪铜呈交割月低-主力近月月份高-远月低的排列特点，目前主力已是明年一季度令约，沪铜仓量有在收年 阶段向上持续测试新高的倾向， 2026年一季度内外铜价涨势可能打开到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures and treasury bond futures are both ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending November 28, stock index futures showed differentiation. IH2512 rose 1.27%, IF2512 rose 2.67%, IC2512 rose 4.29%, and IM2512 rose 4.84%. The driving logic of policy and capital has not changed significantly, overseas macro is relatively stable, but domestic capital has not become more relaxed, and overall risk appetite has recovered [1] - The high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores for stock index futures are: inflation indicator 8 points, liquidity indicator 9 points, valuation indicator 11 points, and market sentiment indicator 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator is 8 points, the liquidity indicator is 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator is 7 points. The weighted annualized basis rates (dividend - adjusted) of the ending open - interest of IH, IF, IC, and IM are - 2.81%, - 6.24%, - 12.5%, and - 15.52% respectively, and the discount of far - month contracts has widened again [1] - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose slightly by 0.51% last week. In the long - term, most economic data in November showed weakening growth, industrial enterprises were weaker than seasonal, and PMI was lower than expected, putting pressure on IF and IC. In the short - term, medium - and high - frequency real estate and consumption are still weak, the RMB has continued to appreciate against the US dollar, and the capital situation remains relatively loose, with a relatively limited short - term increase. In terms of open - interest, risk appetite has recovered compared to last week. IF and IH remain relatively neutral, while IC and IM have increased significantly. The overall comprehensive signal is above neutral. For treasury bond futures, the capital situation remains loose, and the market risk appetite is relatively conducive to the recovery of the bond market, but the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant, the bond market is insensitive to fundamental feedback, the open - interest factor has declined slightly, and institutional year - end allocation behavior has not yet been concentrated, with the comprehensive signal in a neutral oscillation [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy indicators such as the blast furnace operating rate, PTA operating rate, etc. have different weekly changes, and the scores for stock index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 and 0 respectively (on a scale of 0 - 10) [2] Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal index, etc. have different weekly changes, and the scores for both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [3] Liquidity - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for stock index futures is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [4] Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as PE, PS, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for stock index futures is 10 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [5] Market Sentiment: Stock Index - Stock - index - related market sentiment indicators such as margin trading balances, northbound trading amounts, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for treasury bond futures is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [6] Market Sentiment: Bond - Bond - related market sentiment indicators such as the 10 - year CDB bond yield, S&P 500 volatility index, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for treasury bond futures is 7 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [7] Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The open - interest is synthesized based on institutional long and short positions [17] Forecast Signals - As of last Friday, the short - term model, open - interest indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for different futures contracts are provided, and the principles for signal synthesis and trading are explained [18] Last Week's Situation - The trading signals for different futures contracts from November 24 - 28, 2025, are presented, and the data source is provided [20] Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function, and the signals are divided into three types. In actual operation, a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 is used to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [21] Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of the TF and T main contracts from November 24 - 28, 2025, are provided, and the data source is provided [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock indices and government bonds are ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending November 28, stock index futures showed differentiation. IH2512 rose 1.27%, IF2512 rose 2.67%, IC2512 rose 4.29%, and IM2512 rose 4.84%. The driving logic of policy and capital did not change significantly, overseas macro was relatively stable, domestic capital remained relatively loose, and overall risk appetite recovered [1] - The high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores showed that for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 9 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For government bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 7 points [1] - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose slightly by 0.51% last week. In the long - term, most economic data in November showed weakening growth, and IF and IC were under pressure. In the short - term, high - frequency real estate and consumption remained weak, the RMB appreciated against the US dollar, and the capital remained relatively loose with a limited short - term increase. Risk appetite recovered compared to last week, with IF and IH remaining neutral and IC and IM rising significantly. The overall comprehensive signal was above neutral. For government bond futures, the capital remained loose, market risk appetite was conducive to bond market repair, but the stock - bond seesaw effect was not significant, and the comprehensive signal was in a neutral oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - Among economic kinetic factors, the blast furnace开工率 decreased by 1.68%, the开工率 of PTA in China decreased by 1.68%, the refining plant开工率 in Shandong increased by 7.92%, the开工率 of automobile tires decreased by 4.98%, and the开工率 of downstream looms in the polyester filament industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 5.67%. The stock index futures score was 8, and the government bond futures score was 0 [2] 3.2 Inflation Indicators - The vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 index rose 0.73%, the coking coal index rose 0.57%, the price of 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.92%, the South China styrene index rose 1.81%, the CIF price of liquefied natural gas in China remained unchanged, the compound fertilizer index rose 1.30%, and the settlement price of natural rubber rose 1.35%. The stock index futures and government bond futures scores were both 8 [3] 3.3 Liquidity - DR007 decreased by 0.24%, DR001 decreased by 1.17%, GC001 weighted average increased by 5.63%, GC007 weighted average decreased by 2.57%, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.68%, SHIBOR 1 - week increased by 0.48%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.76%, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield (AAA) for 1 - month remained unchanged. The stock index futures score was 9 [4] 3.4 Index Valuation - The price - earnings ratio (TTM) rose 1.66%, the price - sales ratio (TTM) rose 1.66%, the dividend yield (last 12 months) decreased by 2.15%, and the price - cash - flow ratio (operating cash flow TTM) rose 1.67%. The stock index futures score was 10 [5] 3.5 Market Sentiment: Stock Indices - The margin trading balance rose 0.46%, the short - selling balance rose 5.09%, the net purchase amount of northbound funds was unchanged, the selling amount of northbound funds was unchanged, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A - share trading volume decreased by 26.01%. The government bond futures score was 9 [6] 3.6 Market Sentiment: Bonds - The yield of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose 1.65%, the VIX index of the US S&P 500 decreased by 30.22%, the credit spread (median) of all industrial bonds remained unchanged, and the trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange government bond index rose 33.65%. The government bond futures score was 7 [7] 3.7 Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and government bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position volume is synthesized considering institutional long and short positions [17] 3.8 Forecast Signals - The short - term model signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were 0.51, 0.51, 0.52, 0.53, 0.53, and 0.52 respectively; the position volume indicators were 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, and 0 respectively; the long - term model signals were 0.52, 0.5, 0.52, 0.51, 0.51, and 0.52 respectively; the comprehensive signals were 0.52, 0.51, 0.55, 0.5, 0.51, and 0.53 respectively [18] 3.9 Last Week's Situation - From November 24 to 28, the signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were mostly 0 [20] 3.10 Government Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental three - factor model uses the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function, and the signals are classified into three types: '1', '0', and '-1'. The trend regression model filters signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In practice, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a 1:1.8 ratio [21] 3.11 TF and T Main Contract Trading Signals - From November 24 to 28, the N - S model and trend regression model signals for TF and T main contracts were mostly 0, with the N - S model showing a signal of 1 on November 27 [24]