Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, trade policies, and inventory levels. Different products have different trends, with some expected to be range - bound, others to decline in the short - term, and some to be affected by potential weather - driven price fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category [Soybean (Domestic and Imported)] - Domestic soybeans are oscillating at a low level. A domestic soybean bidding and procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be monitored. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth. Imported soybeans will have sufficient supply due to a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China. The mid - term price of US soybeans will be affected by weather and is expected to be oscillating upward. Domestic soybeans are also entering the planting and growing season, and weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations [2]. [Soybean and Soybean Meal] - Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating flat with insufficient upward momentum. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has been falling significantly since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. With more international soybeans arriving, the supply is becoming more abundant. Oil mills are maintaining a high operating rate, and soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. In the short - term, a bearish view is maintained, and the market lacks continuous driving force. Investors should pay attention to the potential upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3]. [Soybean Oil and Palm Oil] - The market focus is on the potential easing of agricultural policies between China and Canada. Soybean oil and palm oil are mainly reducing positions and falling passively following rapeseed oil. The increase in the oil - meal ratio has slowed down. The short - term weather in the US is generally favorable for soybean crops. In the mid - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and domestic oil - meal futures are expected to fluctuate with US soybean prices. Domestic soybean spot will face the pressure of a large amount of arrivals, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4]. [Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil] - Rapeseed - related futures are generally falling today. The main contract of rapeseed oil is increasing positions and falling. The focus is on the market's expectation of the easing of Sino - Canadian rapeseed - related trade relations. The key for domestic rapeseed products lies in the marginal change of trade policies. If the Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will become more abundant. Due to seasonal differences in demand, rapeseed oil may face more significant pressure. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the US - Canada rapeseed oil biodiesel policy and new - crop area weather, and its price center is expected to rise slowly. In general, domestic rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure [6]. [Corn] - Corn futures are rebounding with position reduction following the overall commodity market. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is generally stable. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. With the new wheat harvest, the price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - priced corn areas are gradually substituting. The overall demand is weak, the receiving capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. After the transfer of domestic grain ownership, the market's circulating grain sources are still concentrated in the trading sector. With the listing of new wheat, more corn will be put into the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious about going long, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly [7]. [Pork] - Pork futures are oscillating weakly. The spot price of pork is generally falling across the country. As the number of newborn piglets continues to recover, the overall supply of pork will increase in the future. Group pig - raising enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for sale, and the future sales rhythm is expected to accelerate, further increasing the supply pressure. In the short - term, the spot price still has room to fall. In the mid - term, the policy aims to stabilize pork prices, and measures such as reducing pig weight, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing sow production capacity will reduce the long - term supply pressure. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce pig weight [8]. [Eggs] - The main contract of egg futures has reached a new low today, and the near - month contract is performing weakly. The plum - rain season is having a negative impact on the near - month contract, while the spot price of eggs is stable today. The inventory of laying hens in production continued to increase in May, and the chicks replenished earlier are still in the production - capacity release stage. The egg - laying chicken farming industry has entered the loss zone, and the number of old hens being culled has increased. However, there is no panic - selling situation yet. In June, the plum - rain season will start in the South, and the seasonal off - peak demand period is coming. At the same time, due to the large - scale chick replenishment in the past, the production capacity is still being released. It is expected that the egg price still has a risk of further decline. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens, weather factors, and feed prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]

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★美联储 -- ①洛根：应专注于实现2%的通胀目标，而不是试图弥补过去的通胀不足;2博斯蒂克：仍然认 为今年可能会有一次降息。 ★经合组织将2025年美国GDP预期下调至1.6%（之前为2.2%），将2026年的预期从1.6%调低至1.5%。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Milli | > 国投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月04日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属延续震荡。美国公布4月JOL ...

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price continued to rise overnight, with the Brent 08 contract up 0.75%. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short again after the peak season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in. The global oil inventory has increased by 2% since the second quarter, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and its cracking and EFS are expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [20]. - The asphalt industry started destocking in June, and the destocking trend is expected to continue. The BU crack spread may face short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is hard to reverse [21]. - The decline of 6 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas is small. The market has stabilized, and the downward space is limited. The spot surplus pressure has eased, and the futures may have a small basis contraction, but it will maintain a low - level shock [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals oscillated weakly overnight. The US economic data this week is in focus, especially the non - farm payrolls on Friday. Gold can be bought on dips with strong support at $3000 [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. The White House's tariff policy may increase the expectation of copper tariffs. The LME copper inventory decreased to 143,800 tons, and the spot premium was $50. The KK mine in Congo may resume production at the end of the month. Consider shorting on rebounds or actively rolling over contracts [3]. - Aluminum prices rebounded slightly overnight. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 8,000 tons, and the demand is facing challenges. There is resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4]. - The alumina supply elasticity is large after the profit recovery. The domestic operating capacity increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons. It is advisable to short on rallies, and not to chase short when the discount is large [5]. - Zinc demand is in the off - season, and the fundamentals are changing from weak supply and demand to increasing supply and weak demand. Continue to short on rebounds [6]. - The cost support of lead is expected to gradually appear, and the lower support of SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, but the stainless - steel market is still in a situation of high supply and weak demand. The nickel iron inventory increased, and the pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories decreased. Short positions can be followed as the nickel price starts to fall [8]. - Tin prices rose overnight. The tin market still has the theme of tight concentrates, but the medium - term trend is downward. Hold short positions at high levels [9]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market inventory situation shows positive changes. The decline of Australian ore prices has slowed down, and the short - selling momentum has weakened [10]. - The industrial silicon price decreased with reduced positions. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to decline slowly [11]. - The polysilicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The short - term demand is weak, and the price is expected to change from shock to weak. Pay attention to the support at 34,200 yuan/ton [12]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is under pressure in the off - season, and the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have improved. The iron - water output is falling, and the negative feedback expectation still exists. The market is expected to rebound with fluctuations [13]. - The iron ore price rose overnight. The global supply has rebounded to a high level, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly. The demand is in the off - season, and the iron - water output is declining. The price is expected to be weakly volatile and may make up for the decline [14]. - The coke price rebounded. The iron - water output is falling slightly, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the price support may decline due to the cost reduction of coking coal [15]. - The coking coal price rebounded. The production is still at a high level, the spot auction market is weak, and the terminal inventory is decreasing slightly. The price still has a downward driving force [16]. - The silicon - manganese price rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory has decreased, but the supply is increasing slightly. The price is still weak [17]. - The silicon - iron price rebounded after a decline. The iron - water output is falling, the demand is fair, the supply is decreasing, and the price is still weak [18]. Group 5: Shipping - The shipping companies are raising the freight rates in late June. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" trend. There may be pulse - type market conditions, and there is still room for the 08 contract to rise further. Short - selling in the short term needs to be cautious [19]. Group 6: Chemicals - The urea market is in a weak - shock state. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, the production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the impact of the new Indian tender is small [23]. - The methanol price continued to rebound with increased positions. The demand from coastal olefin plants has increased, but the port inventory is rising. The coal price is falling, and the cost is under pressure [24]. - The styrene price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation at the main ports in East China and weak downstream demand [25]. - The demand for polyethylene and polypropylene is in the off - season, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The price support from the demand side is limited [26]. - The PVC industry may face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price may oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda market is weakly operating, with high - level supply and inventory pressure [27]. - The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The supply - demand situation of upstream raw materials is gradually under pressure due to weakening demand [28]. - The ethylene glycol price remains weak, and the pressure will gradually appear after June [29]. - The short - fiber price oscillated and rebounded, and attention should be paid to the possibility of processing - margin repair. The bottle - chip market is in the peak - demand season, and the processing margin is low. Consider intervening in the processing - margin repair if production cuts are implemented [30]. Group 7: Building Materials - The glass industry's production capacity has increased slightly, the spot price has decreased, and the futures price is weakly operating. The inventory pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [31]. Group 8: Rubber - The natural rubber supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weakening, the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [32]. Group 9: Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rebounded overnight. The inventory pressure is high, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure at a high level [33]. Group 10: Agricultural Products - The soybean and soybean meal prices lack upward drive. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is relatively cautious. The market is expected to be short - term bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in June - August [34]. - The soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean and palm oil will face pressure from large arrivals, and the overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle [35]. - The Canadian canola futures price has upward drive, but the domestic canola market is affected by the Sino - Canadian trade relationship. It is advisable to reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term [36]. - The domestic soybean price is oscillating. The import supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be affected by weather in the medium term [37]. - The corn price is expected to be weakly volatile. The demand is weak, and the supply will increase with the listing of new wheat [38]. - The pig price is expected to decline in the short term due to increasing supply. In the medium term, the policy aims to stabilize the price, and attention should be paid to the actions of group enterprises [39]. - The egg price is expected to decline further due to increasing supply and the arrival of the off - season. Attention should be paid to the old - hen culling, weather, and feed prices [40]. - The cotton price is advisable to wait and see. The US cotton planting progress is behind, and the domestic cotton market has mixed conditions with some tight - inventory expectations but increasing off - season pressure [41]. - The sugar price is expected to oscillate. The Brazilian production data is mixed, and the domestic sugar market has reduced imports and light inventory pressure [42]. - The apple price is weakly operating. The market demand is decreasing, and the focus is on the new - season yield estimate. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - The wood price has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. The price rebound power is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - The pulp price declined. The port inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the import volume may decline. It is advisable to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [45]. Group 11: Financial Futures - The stock index futures are expected to be in a high - level shock due to insufficient bullish drive. The uncertainty of geopolitical situation and US trade policy makes investors cautious. Pay attention to positive domestic policy signals [46]. - The treasury bond futures are oscillating. The market is in a narrow - range shock, and there may be long - position opportunities after over - decline. Pay attention to the entry timing of curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [47].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月03日 端午节假期国际油价先抑后扬，布伦特08合约较上周五下午3点收盘价上涨3.25%。OPEC+自愿城产 8国决定7月延续41.1万桶/天的增产速度，略低于市场此前预期的更激进增产幅度，利空因素被提 前透支定价。在俄乌第二轮直接会谈之际乌克兰向俄罗斯发动大规模无人机袭击，欧盟也在酝酿第 18轮对俄制裁,伊朗对美国最新提出的核协议持偏否定态度,伊核谈判前景再次渺茫。此外,截至 周一加拿大野火已影响到该国7%的原油产量。OPEC+增产短期利空出尽后，地缘风险及意外供断再 次对油价构成支撑。 【贵金属】 假期期间责金属上涨。特朗普贸易政策反复,再度对钢铝关税加码。数据方面美国5月ISM制造业 PMI录得48.5不及预期，为2024年11月以来新低。贸易战阴霾下市场前景依然充满不确定性，后续 关注美国贸易法院禁止特朗普关税以及各方谈判进展,贵金属将测试前期高点位置阻力,维持回调 买入思路。 (铜) 节中伦铜先抑后扬，特朗普表示将钢铝关税上调到50%，虽未提及铜，但美铜短线拉涨，美伦价差再 次扩至一千美元上方。同时，美元指数下滑,金银 ...

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| 《八》国经期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月30日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 1 【原油】 隔夜国际油价收跌,SC07合约日内收跌4.11%。昨日美国联邦上诉法院作出裁定,暂缓此前下级法院禁止特朗普 关税的命令14天,此前市场因美国关税遇阻带来的短期乐观情绪快速降温,且特朗普政府上诉后胜出并重新实 施关税的可能性依然较大。考虑到5月31日会议OPEC+增产压力悬而未决，中期供需宽松展望之下原油市场下行 压力积聚。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 燃油系期货大幅下行,FU跌幅更深。高硫方面,中 ...

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