【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 低硫燃料油表现弱势,高硫燃料油相对偏强。高硫方面,中东、北非夏季发电需求虽有季节性支撑,但沙特、埃及 今夏气温预报同比偏低，其对高硫燃油需求提振有限，俄罗斯燃油周度发运量呈低位回升态势，加之OPEC+增产带 来的高硫重质资源供应增量,FU裂解价差预计高位震荡为主。低硫方面,受地中海限硫新规及此前东西价差走强影 响,5月低硫燃料油西方套利船货有所增加,国内港口保税库存亦处同期高位,供需指引偏弱,单边走势以跟随原 油为主。 【沥青】 6月国内焼厂计划排产231万吨，同比增加明显，主要受她炼京博海南增产拉动。北方市场刚需好转,南方市场需求 仍受降雨天气影响，国内周度沥青出货量呈李节性改善状态但仍同比偏低。当前沥青整体库存水平仍处去库态势但 去库力度已有所减缓。BU裂解价差走强至近五年同期最高水平后表现承压，需求迎来实质性好转前裂解缺乏进一步 上行驱动。 (LPG) 海外市场供应充裕而整体转弱，到岸成本仍有回落趋势。上周国内码头库容率仍处偏高水平，下游采购谨慎，国内 仍以降价出货为主。化工毛利继续提升，但目前丙烷-石脑油价差偏高，对化工需求恢复空间造成限制,短期基本 面改善动力有限。现货端维持 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月28日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收跌，布伦特07合约跌0.8%。此前我们谈到原油市场短期支撑与中期宽松压力并 存，目前市场驱动或向中期逻辑切换。上周五美伊核谈未达成协议,但美伊及阿曼均释放偏积极信 号，谈判破裂的极端情景得以避免，市场关注焦点或重回供需面。上周原油累库、成品油去库，总 体石油库存增加1.1%,累库速度较一季度略有加快,即便考虑到三季度夏季需求旺季,在OPEC+增 产路径下累库压力依然存在，5月31日0PEC+会议前后油价或以震荡偏弱行情为主。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。全球不确定性前景和美元信用风险下黄金长期依然看涨，近期贸易战以及地缘冲 突各方均处于谈判阶段，消息纷扰情绪反复，责金属仍处于震荡调整格局中，金价在3000美元/盎 司强支撑位置上方表现抗跌，维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜震荡收阴，价格波动有限。LME库存延续去库转移，0-3月现货升水40美元。美国密歇根大 学消费者信心指数强于预期。国内上海现铜升水降至150元， 广东延续220元升水，精费价差仍在 1000元以下。下半年合约高位空单持有 ...

| Million > 國搜期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月27日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 此前我们谈到原油市场短期支撑与中期宽松压力并存,目前市场驱动或向中期逻辑切换。上周五美伊核谈未达 成协议,但美伊及阿曼均释放偏积极信号,谈判破裂的极端情景得以避免,市场关注焦点或重回供需面。上周 原油累库、成品油去库，总体石油库存增加1.1%，累库速度较一季度略有加快，即便考虑到三季度夏季需求旺 季，在OPEC+增产路径下累库压力依然存在，5月31日OPEC+会议前后油价或以震荡偏弱行情为主。 【燃 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年05月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业培 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二沪铜震荡,价格波动有限。SMM现铜报78515元，上海铜升水降至150元,广东延续220元升水,精费价差仍 在1000元以下。晚间美国实体经济指标密集。2507合约高位空单持有。 【铝&氧化 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Urea: ★★★, suggesting a relatively clear bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, showing a relatively clear bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply increases, weak demand, and cost changes [2][3][4] - Some products have potential investment opportunities, but also face various uncertainties and risks, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures price continued to decline and hit a new low. There is an expectation of a significant increase in supply, and market confidence is insufficient. The import volume last week rebounded significantly to over 300,000 tons. Although the MTO device in Jiangsu restarted, the support for the market was weak. The port showed a slight inventory build - up. Coal prices continued to fall, and the cost support for methanol was weak. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may accumulate during the Dragon Boat Festival. The market is expected to run weakly and stably, and attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2] Urea - The urea futures price lacked upward momentum and first rose then fell during the day. There is a temporary gap in agricultural demand due to the start of wheat harvesting in some areas, and the start - up of compound fertilizer plants is expected to decline. The market trading sentiment has weakened, and production enterprises have accumulated inventory. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [3] Polyolefins - The main contract of polyolefin futures closed down. The polyethylene production enterprises had concentrated maintenance, but the social inventory pressure remained, and the supply did not improve significantly. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the support for raw materials was limited. The demand side of polypropylene was weak, and the export of downstream products was affected by overseas tariffs. The supply - demand situation provided limited support [4] Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures closed down. The domestic production increased as some maintenance devices restarted, and the port inventory was expected to rise slightly. Downstream factories were less willing to accept high - priced goods and maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [6] Polyester - PX: The supply - demand situation weakened, and the valuation was under pressure [7] - PTA: There are large - scale maintenance plans in June, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. In the long - term, there are pressures of supply increase and demand weakening [7] - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term supply - demand situation is good, but there will be pressure after the long - term device maintenance restarts [7] - Short - fiber: The processing margin repairs slowly, and attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side [7] - Bottle chips: It is in the peak demand season, with stable inventory and low - running processing margins. If production cuts are implemented, the processing margin repair can be considered [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC: It continued to weaken. The production was at a relatively high level, and the domestic demand was flat. The export is expected to weaken, and the cost support was not obvious. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8] - Caustic Soda: It was weakly running. The downstream inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply continued to be under high pressure, and the futures price was under pressure at a high level [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There were rumors of cold - repair of production lines in Hubei, and the price was strong during the session but still weak overall. The inventory pressure was high, and the downstream orders improved but were still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to operate cautiously [9] - Soda Ash: It was weakly running. The inventory decreased on Monday but was still high. The supply is expected to increase again in June. Attention should be paid to the changes in the photovoltaic and float glass industries [9]

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Casting aluminum alloy is an important part of China's non - ferrous metal industry. With the ceiling of primary aluminum production capacity reached, the supply increment of domestic aluminum will rely on recycled aluminum and imports. Recycled aluminum is a key direction for the green transformation of China's non - ferrous metals due to its low carbon emissions [14][31]. - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options will provide price signals, promote the green and low - carbon development of the aluminum industry, and help the national "dual carbon" strategy. It will also offer risk management tools for physical enterprises [65]. - The future development prospects of recycled aluminum are promising. With the arrival of the peak of scrap aluminum scrapping and policy support, the supply of recycled aluminum raw materials will be alleviated, and the output will gradually increase towards the targets of 1150000 tons in 2025 and 1800000 tons in 2030 [31]. Summary by Directory 1. Casting Aluminum Alloy Industry Introduction - Casting aluminum alloy is a type of aluminum alloy, and the upcoming casting aluminum alloy futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is for recycled casting aluminum alloy, with the delivery targets being 383Y.3 (GB/T8377 - 2016) and AD12.1 (JIS H 2118 - 2006), commonly known as ADC12 [7]. - The upstream of the recycled casting aluminum alloy industry chain is scrap aluminum recycling enterprises, and the downstream is mainly used in the automotive and other fields. ADC12 is the core grade in recycled casting aluminum alloy, with high strength, good pressure resistance, and low thermal brittleness, suitable for many automotive parts [9]. - Compared with primary aluminum, recycled aluminum has low carbon emissions and is in line with the "dual carbon" strategy. In the future, the domestic aluminum supply increment will rely on recycled aluminum and imports [14]. 2. China's Scrap Aluminum Supply Situation - Domestic scrap aluminum supply is mainly from domestic recycling, with imported scrap as a supplement. Domestic recycling includes new scrap (from the production process) and old scrap (from post - consumer products). The supply of old scrap is increasing as more scrap aluminum enters the recycling cycle [18][20]. - China has adjusted scrap aluminum import policies several times in recent years. In 2024, the scrap aluminum import volume reached 178500 tons, the highest since 2018, with a relatively dispersed import source [26][27]. - Overall, China's scrap aluminum supply has been tight in recent years, but with the arrival of the high - growth period of aluminum scrapping and policy adjustments, the supply of domestic old scrap will increase, supporting the rapid development of recycled aluminum [30]. 3. Casting Aluminum Alloy Supply and Demand Status - In 2024, the output of recycled casting aluminum alloy in China was 705000 tons, with a low capacity utilization rate of 50 - 60%. The industry is mainly composed of small and medium - sized private enterprises, with low market concentration [31][39][40]. - Since 2020, China has changed from a net exporter to a net importer of aluminum alloy ingots. In 2024, the import volume of aluminum alloy was 121200 tons, mainly from Malaysia and Thailand [42]. - The demand for casting aluminum alloy is mainly from the automotive industry. Although the proportion of recycled aluminum used in new energy vehicles is lower than that in fuel vehicles, the development of low - carbon aluminum alloy materials will expand the market space for recycled materials [48][53]. 4. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price Operation Characteristics - The price of ADC12 generally follows the trend of primary aluminum, but there are stage differences. In 2024, the industry average profit was - 25 yuan/ton, and the launch of futures can help hedge price risks [60]. - The price difference between different regions of ADC12 is small, while the price difference between different brands is obvious. The basis may fluctuate greatly at the initial stage of futures listing, providing arbitrage opportunities [61]. - There is a lack of high - frequency data on ADC12, and the social inventory is low and has little practical value for judging supply and demand [61]. 5. Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures Contract Text (Listing Version) - The trading unit of the casting aluminum alloy futures contract is 10 tons/hand, the minimum price change is 5 yuan/ton, and the daily price limit is ±3% of the previous trading day's settlement price. The contract months are from January to December [67]. - The delivery unit is 30 tons, and the delivery grade is casting aluminum alloy ingots that meet specific quality requirements, including chemical composition, pinhole degree, slag inclusion, etc. [68]. 6. Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures Business Rules (Listing Version) - It includes trading rules, delivery rules, fee standards, invoice processes, and risk management systems. For example, the minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, and the margin increases at different stages of the contract [72][85]. - The delivery process involves multiple aspects such as product quality inspection, packaging requirements, and document requirements. The delivery fee is 2 yuan/ton, and it is temporarily exempted until December 31, 2025 (except for high - frequency traders) [74][80]. - In terms of invoice processes, the seller needs to issue a VAT special invoice to the buyer, and there are corresponding regulations on the time of invoice issuance and the handling of late - issued invoices [81].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - Gold closed at 780.10 with a 3.76% weekly increase [2]. - Silver closed at 8263.00 with a 2.00% weekly increase [2]. - Other commodities like corn, copper, and glass had varying degrees of price changes, with some increasing and others decreasing [2]. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index and other indexes also had corresponding price changes, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.38% - 1.10% [2]. Bond and Exchange Rates - Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.61%, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose by 1.79% [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: RMB appreciation, capital inflow, net financing purchase, potential monetary policies, and policy support for the stock market [4]. - Bearish logics: Global debt issues, ineffective industrial policies, slow economic improvement, and low market trading volume [4]. Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, all 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: Low possibility of tightened liquidity, declining interest rates, policy constraints on market rates, and weak real - economy financing demand [4]. - Bearish logics: Unlikely further interest - rate cuts, upcoming special treasury bond supply, rising risk appetite, and expected policy - driven inflation and growth [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Rebound in transportation data, decline in US active oil rigs, high gold - oil ratio, and lack of clear OPEC production increase data [5]. - Bearish logics: Approaching US debt crisis, rumored OPEC+ production increase, inventory accumulation, easing US - Iran relations, poor US debt auction, and tariff threats [5]. Agricultural Sector Palm Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, limited production increase in May, high Indian imports, and decreasing domestic inventory [5]. - Bearish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil production, excessive domestic purchases, higher - than - expected production data, seasonal production increase, and potential reduction in biodiesel demand [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Tariff - buffer - driven exports, improvement in US manufacturing PMI, inventory reduction, and continuous decline in social inventory [6]. - Bearish logics: Low downstream processing profits, post - tariff - window demand pressure, potential decline in photovoltaic demand, and high valuation [6]. Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Improved regional sales, reduced inventory, potential policy support, and technical support at the current price [6]. - Bearish logics: Price cuts for inventory reduction, high daily melting volume, approaching traditional off - season, and weak real - estate demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Global bond market volatility, Chinese reduction of US debt, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Bearish logics: Market pricing of US fiscal bill impact, potential limited impact of tariff threats, possible decline in gold's relative attractiveness, and overbought technical signals [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Coal mine maintenance, high steel - mill profits, strong basis after price decline, and weak coking - enterprise production - cut incentives [7]. - Bearish logics: High mine inventory, declining iron - water production, high auction failure rate, shrinking coking profits, and high port clearance volume [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Strong Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Domestic), Corn [1] - **Buy (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Not specified Core Views - The prices of domestic agricultural products show various trends, with factors such as policy, supply - demand, weather, and imports influencing them. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillations, potential rises, and declines [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in an oscillating trend after a recent price decline. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. Imported soybeans have abundant supply from May to July due to large - scale arrivals from Brazil. Mid - term prices of both domestic and US soybeans are expected to be affected by weather, with a predicted oscillating and bullish trend [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices in most domestic regions are falling, with weakening spot basis and increasing inventory. Supply has become more abundant since May, and the market lacks a driver for continuous price increases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The domestic futures market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. Both soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain an interval - oscillating trend, affected by factors such as supply and overseas production [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products generally rose today, with rapeseed meal outperforming rapeseed oil. Mid - term policies may bring import bottlenecks, which will relieve supply pressure. The demand for rapeseed meal is promising, and a bullish strategy is recommended [6] Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable, while Shandong's purchase prices are weakening. North port inventories are below 4 million tons, and south port inventories are increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the next stage [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market is weakly oscillating, and spot prices are slightly rebounding. Long - term supply is expected to recover, and downward pressure on spot prices may affect the futures market [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices are falling with increased positions, while spot prices are rebounding in many areas. After the Dragon Boat Festival, supply pressure may lead to further price drops, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the futures market [9]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈，纺企库存出现累积但仍不高。国内棉花进口 延续偏低的情况, 2025年4月进口6万吨,同比降28万吨,环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万吨,同比降71%;2024/25 年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。目前看对于下游的订单好 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities has slightly increased, with a significant decline in the black sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in cross - section are precious metals and soft commodities, while the relatively weak one is the black sector [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different commodities have different factor performance and comprehensive signals. For example, methanol's comprehensive signal is long this week, while glass, iron ore, and lead's comprehensive signals are neutral [5][8][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overview - The momentum of the black sector continues to decline. Gold's time - series momentum stabilizes, and the trading volume of Shanghai Gold marginally rebounds. The non - ferrous sector shows some divergence in trading volume, with copper being relatively strong and zinc relatively weak. In the energy and chemical sector, the cross - sectional momentum of chemicals is still higher than that of energy products. In the agricultural products sector, the trading volume of oilseeds and meals remains low, and soft commodities are relatively strong in the term structure [3]. Methanol - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.38%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.52%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [5]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic capacity utilization rate of methanol has decreased, but imports have increased. The supply - side long - strength has weakened. The operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants has increased, and the demand - side has changed from short to neutral. The inventory in inland and ports is lower year - on - year, and the inventory - side is long. The import profit of methanol and the regional price difference factor between Inner Mongolia and Shandong have released long signals, and the price - difference side is neutral to long [5]. Float Glass - Strategy net worth: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.10%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [8]. - Fundamental factors: The operating rate of float glass enterprises has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - side remains neutral. The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities has increased, and the demand - side is neutral to long. The weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese float glass has changed from inventory accumulation to slight inventory reduction, and the inventory - side has changed from short to neutral. The profit of float glass made from pipeline gas and steam coal has slightly declined, and the profit - side remains neutral. The main - continuous basis - Wuhan Changli has released a short signal, but the contribution of this factor is low, and the price - difference side is neutral [8]. Iron Ore - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.13%, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the price - difference factor weakened by 0.07%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal has changed to neutral [10]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volume of iron ore at Rizhao Port has increased compared with last week, and the supply - side signal has changed to long. The output of WSA blast - furnace pig iron in China this month has continued to decline compared with last month, and the demand - side signal remains short. The inventory of iron ore concentrates in 45 ports has declined, and the inventory - side remains neutral. The price of Atlas iron powder for sale at Rizhao Port has continued to rise, and the price - difference side signal remains neutral [10]. Lead - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor remained unchanged, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the price - difference factor strengthened by 0.01%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.02%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [10]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee of SMM has continued to decline, and the supply - side signal remains short. The export volume of Chinese lead alloys in May has continued to decrease compared with April, and the demand - side signal remains neutral. The lead inventory in the London Metal Exchange has continued to rise, and the inventory - side has changed to long. The profit of SMM recycled lead has continued to rise, and the price - difference side signal has changed to neutral [10].