| 《八八 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月20日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 统威 | ☆☆☆ 瓶片 | | ななな | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇主力合约连续回落。国内多套装置复产,供应压力的显著增多对行情产生较大压制,生产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly. The chemical sector rebounded slightly, while the black and non - ferrous sectors declined. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in cross - section are chemicals and precious metals, and the relatively weak one is the black sector [2]. - In terms of strategy net worth, for methanol, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02% last week, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is neutral. For float glass, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.15% last week, the synthetic factor increased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is short. For iron ore, the supply factor strengthened by 0.80% last week, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the spread factor strengthened by 0.91%, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.60%, and this week's comprehensive signal turned short. For lead, the supply factor weakened by 0.16% last week, the demand factor weakened by 0.21%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.21%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.19%, and this week's comprehensive signal remains short [2][4]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - Precious metals: Gold's time - series momentum stabilized, and the trading volume of Shanghai gold increased marginally. Silver changed relatively little [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: There were certain differences in trading volume, but the cross - section showed significant differentiation, with copper being relatively strong [2]. - Black metals: The differentiation of term structure narrowed, the trading volume factors of iron ore and rebar declined, and the long - term momentum factor decreased [2]. - Energy and chemicals: The cross - section momentum of chemicals in the energy - chemical sector was still higher than that of energy products [2]. - Agricultural products: The trading volume of oilseeds and meals remained at a low level, and soft commodities were relatively strong in the term - structure cross - section [2]. Factor Signals and Fundamentals Methanol - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is neutral [2]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic capacity utilization rate and import volume of methanol both decreased, and the supply side is bullish [2]. Float Glass - Strategy net worth: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.15%, the synthetic factor increased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is short [4]. - Fundamental factors: The operating rate of float - glass enterprises increased slightly, the supply side is neutral; the number of commercial - housing transactions in third - tier cities increased significantly, but the contribution of this factor is low, and the demand side remains neutral; the weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese float glass continued to increase slightly, and the inventory side continues to be short; the profits of float glass made from pipeline gas and steam - coal declined, and the profit side is slightly bearish [4]. Iron Ore - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.80%, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the spread factor strengthened by 0.91%, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.60%, and this week's comprehensive signal turned short [4]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volume at Rizhao Port decreased compared with last week, and the supply - side signal turned short; the domestic production of blast - furnace pig iron continued to decline this month compared with last month, and the demand - side signal turned short; the inventory of iron concentrate powder at 45 ports continued to rise, and the inventory side remained neutral; the price of Atlas iron powder sold at Rizhao Port continued to rise, and the spread - side signal turned neutral [4]. Lead - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.16%, the demand factor weakened by 0.21%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.21%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.19%, and this week's comprehensive signal remains short [4]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic lead - concentrate processing fee continued to decline, and the supply - side signal remains short; the export volume of Chinese starting - type lead - acid batteries in May continued to decrease compared with April, and the demand - side signal remains neutral; the cancelled warrants of lead at the LME continued to rise, and the inventory side remains short; the profit of recycled lead increased, and the spread - side signal turned bullish [4].

| | | | VA SUICFULURES | | 2025年05月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面惯性下挫。裸统表需环比回升,产登相对平稳,库存恢复下降态势。熬卷需求同步回瑜,产量有所回落,库存恢复下 降态势。铁水产量有所回落,整体仍处于高位,供应压力依然较大,随着需求决季临近,终端承接能力有特观察。从下游行业 看,内容整体依然偏弱,4月统计数据显示制造业扳资增建放缓, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年05月20日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，SC2507夜盘涨幅达0.56%。上周全球石油库存下降0.9%，二季度以来黑库 幅度0.4%较平衡表表现偏紧。短期原油市场在夏季石油需求面临李节性改善,俄乌和谈、美伊核谈 进程由折等地球局势的支撑下或有震荡偏强表现;但考虑到中期供需宽松压力悬而未决,油价反弹 空间亦不过分乐观,关注布伦特70美元/橘、SC510元/桶压力位。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡,日内波动频繁。近期美国经济数据保持韧性,市场降低对于经济轰迷的扣 注，降息路径仍在博弈。贸易战以及地缘冲突各方均处于谈判阶段，消息纷扰下市场情绪可能不断 摇摇。贵金属仍处于震荡调整阶段,国际金价在3000美元/盎司位置具备较强支撑,维持回调买入 思路。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价震荡收涨,沪铜加权技术阻力仍在7.8-7.85万一线。5月中旬后,国内铜消费有转弱 顾向,SMM社库增至13.92万吨;目前大口径显性库存降至约55万吨、仍略高于年初。昨日上海铜升 水扩至440元,广东铜升水270元,且洋山铜溢价降低到95美元。2507合约7.8万上方空单继 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Apple: ななな, no clear indication from the given star system [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Natural rubber: ななな, no clear indication from the given star system [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and international negotiations. Most commodities are recommended for temporary observation due to uncertainties in the market [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures declined slightly today. Spot cotton trading improved compared to yesterday but remained sluggish overall. The cotton yarn market lacked confidence but had a high willingness to hold prices [2] - In April, China's textile and clothing exports were $241.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% and a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. Textile exports were $125.8 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, and clothing exports were $116.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% and a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [2] - Zhengzhou cotton's recent strength was driven by positive news from China - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. China's cotton inventory decreased well from March to April. If the negotiations continue to improve, the end - of - season inventory may be tight [2] - It is recommended to either wait and see or try the bull spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices pulled back. In May, less rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for sugarcane crushing, and sugarcane and sugar production are expected to rise [3] - Most international consulting firms expect the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to remain high, above 4000 tons [3] - In April, China's sugar sales data was positive. Despite the increase in production in Guangxi, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a faster sales pace, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - In the first quarter, the imports of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, which is beneficial for the sales of domestic sugar. The market's trading focus has shifted to consumption and imports. The domestic sugar sales are good, and both consumption and supply are positive for sugar prices. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upside space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. As the temperature rose across the country, the demand for apples decreased, and the listing of seasonal fruits also impacted apple demand [4] - The procurement enthusiasm of merchants in the producing areas decreased, and the delivery speed slowed down. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the flower buds in the western producing areas were sufficient this year, the fruit - setting rate was low due to high temperatures and strong winds during the flowering period, which may lead to lower - than - expected production. However, there are still differences in the market's production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the prices of RU, NR, and BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased slightly, and the butadiene rubber spot price remained stable. The export price of butadiene in the international market increased, and the price of raw materials in Thailand decreased [6] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the growth period, and domestic and foreign production areas have fully started production. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded significantly this week [6] - The domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly this week, and the finished - product inventory increased again. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to rise to 61.87 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased slightly to 1.35 tons, while the upstream butadiene export inventory decreased significantly to 3.09 tons [6] - Overall, demand has recovered, supply has increased, inventory has continued to rise, cost - driven factors have strengthened, and market sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to be cautious and hold cross - variety arbitrage positions [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices declined. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was stable at 6350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei Wushubxuan pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was stable at 4200 yuan/ton [7] - As of May 15, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 219,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%. The domestic import inventory was relatively high year - on - year. The demand for pulp remained weak. The pulp imports in April decreased month - on - month, and it is expected that imports in May and June will continue to decline month - on - month. The recent price increase was mainly driven by macro factors, and its sustainability is still uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price was weak. The spot price remained stable. The shipping of New Zealand logs has entered the off - season, and the future arrival volume will continue to decrease, and the supply pressure will decline [8] - The peak season is gradually ending, and the log delivery volume has reached a phased high and will gradually decline. The national log inventory continued to decrease, but the inventory of radiata pine increased month - on - month because the downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the price of radiata pine lumber has started to decline, indicating a short - term oversupply [8] - Overall, demand is gradually entering the off - season, and supply is relatively sufficient. The log fundamentals are relatively weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落,布伦特07合约跌1.87%。哈梅内伊及特朗普关于美伊接近达成核协议的表态令 市场对伊朗石油制裁解除、供应风险弱化增加预期,但伊朗高级官员关于尚未收到关于解决核争端 未决分歧的美国最新提议又令这一预期有所修复,油价部分收复跌幅。考虑到OPEC+已进入快速增 产周期,美伊核谈判、俄乌和谈总体处于她缘缓和趋势,相关供应制裁风险趋于弱化,关税降级带 动的油价反弹空间不过分乐观,油价阶段性修复完成后将再度承压。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属先抑后扬波动剧烈。美国公布零售销售月率0.1%略超预期但低于前值,周度初请失业金 人数22.9万人基本持平预期和前值,PP1录得2.4%与CP1超同表现大幅降温。美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 称正在调整其总体政策制定框架,引起市场对于未来走向宽松的猜想。近期市场降低对于美国经济 滚退的抑注,降息路径仍将博弈,国际金价处于调整中,3000美元/盎司位置具备较强支撑,维持 回调买入思路。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收回亚洲盘跌幅,沪铜加权反弹回近7.8万。美国森信销售、PPI数据皆弱于预期，海外投 行对铜持谨慎态度。2505最 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of the steel, iron ore, and other futures markets is supported by factors such as the marginal improvement of weekly data and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the pessimistic demand expectations limit the upside space. For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market fluctuated narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly, production was relatively stable, and inventory resumed a downward trend. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, production declined, and inventory resumed a downward trend. Iron ore production is at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large. As the off - season of demand approaches, the terminal's carrying capacity needs to be observed. Domestic demand in downstream industries is still weak, manufacturing prosperity has declined, and real estate sales recovery is fluctuating [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market fluctuated. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore fluctuated normally, with no obvious increase for the time being. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and the national port inventory decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded, but there is still seasonal weakening pressure in the future. With a high profit rate of steel mills, iron ore production can still maintain a high level for the time being. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the decline of iron ore production in the medium term [2] Coke - The price of coke fluctuated weakly. It is expected to be reduced in price this Thursday, and daily production has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Steel billet export orders are good. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Production has gradually climbed to a relatively high level this year. The activity of the spot auction market is low, the transaction price has loosened slightly, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory of coking coal is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese fluctuated narrowly. The national manganese ore port inventory has been continuously rising, with a cumulative increase of more than 300,000 tons last week. It is estimated that about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level, the supply of silicomanganese continues to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, which continues to suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [6] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Export demand generally shows a downward trend month - on - month, but the marginal impact is small. The production of magnesium metal is basically flat and remains stable at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has rebounded slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continuously increased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [7]

豆一盘面主力处于震荡态势中。今日黑龙江调节储备竞价销售全部成交。豆一仓单高企,仓单少量减少。农业 农村部本周部署推进粮油大面积单产提升工作。进口大豆方面加征关税进行了下调,进口大豆开机率环比回 升,5-7月份的大豆到港量也庞大。短期继续关注政策端的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 国内豆箱现货报价继续走弱,今日华北,山东,江苏部分地区已有现货跌至3000元/吨以下。下游采购积极性不 佳,成交表现一般。受中美贸易关系缓和影响,美大豆进口加征关税减至20%。5月开始国际大豆到法增多，局 部供应偏紧情况已缓解,供应趋于宽松。后续中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多,短期看空不做空,下方空 间有限,投资者注意风险,关注天气,关注长期做多机会。 【豆油&棕榈油】 美豆油出现大幅下跌,回吐了之前的涨幅,因为RVO政策延期公布,使得市场忧虑。国内豆棕油也跟随下跌。近 期美国生柴政策领期的变动加大了植物油的波动风险,总体从美国生物柴油现有的产能和未来几年扩产的产能 来看,原押需求体量大趋势是存在的,原料价格、原料类别、政策补贴、企业的利润等之间存在博弈,容易造 成价格波动增大的风险,注意控制风险。 | | | | | 操作评级 | 202 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 軟商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月15日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑将小幅下跌,国产棉现货交投一般,销售基差稳定,纯棉纱价格偏强运行,但需求一般纺企库存略有累积。国内4月份纺 跟出口表现尚可,4月我国出口纺织品服装241.86亿美元,同比增加1.1%,环比增加3.35%;共中纺织品出口125.8亿美元,同 比增加3.2%;服装出口116.07亿美元,同比减少1.17%,环比 ...