gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月23日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价走弱,布伦特07含约跌0.85%。昨日有消息称0PEG+正在讨论6月1日是否继续以41.1 万桶/天速度快速增产,市场对原油供需宽松担忧加重。上周美国EIA原油库存亦超预期增加132.8 万桶，汽油、馏分油库存均录得增加。但近期围绕以色列打击伊核设施的中东地缘风险仍有波折, 关注5月23日美伊第5轮核会谈进展,原油区间震荡波动率或有增加。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国5月标普全球制造业PMI和服务业PMI和值均录得52.3好于预期和前值,周度初诗失业金人 数22.7万人降至四周以来新低，经济数据保持韧性，贵金属回落。近期贸易战以及地缘冲突各方均 处于谈判阶段，市场情绪仍将摇摆，国际金价调整难言结束，但在3000美元/盎司强支撑位置上方 表现抗跌,维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价震荡,特朗普政府减税方案以俄弱票数获众议院通过,参议院可能在8月投票,美债收益率 周内涨势显著。美国5月制造业PMI初值反弹到三个月新高52.3，分项显示采购库存飙升，新订单增 长,但就业相对夜弱。欧元区制造业指数反弹到49.4 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 纯苯的价格及影响因素 国投期货研究院 1. 纯苯历史价格走势分析 2012-2013年华东纯苯现货价格从10000元/吨所近上涨至最高14000元/吨附近后,维持在11000元/吨以上高 征震荡为主,当时的Brent原油价格处于100美元/桶以上的高位,是纯苯价格居高不下的主要原因。另外,下游 苯胺、已内酰胺和苯酚产能加快增长,国内供应统口放大,也是当时纯苯价格走强的主要原因,纯苯一石脑油价 差走强至400美元/吨以上,行业利润丰厚。 图 1: 国内外纯苯现货价 图 2: 纯苯-石脑油价差 资料来源:iFind,国投期货 2014年纯苯的羅跌主要归因于原油价格,Brent油价从110美元/桶的高位最低跌至30美元/桶以下,纯苯价 格从11000元/吨以上跌至7000元/吨以下。但从二者走势看,纯苯先于油价见底,2015年油价继续暴跌的过程 中,纯苯价格甚至出现一轮剧烈波动,价格反弹至11000元/吨后再度跌至7000元/吨附近。 2016年初，随着油价探底回升,纯苯价格震荡上行,依旧保持高波动率,至2018年中再度逼近14000元/吨 的高位后暴跌至8000元/吨。在此期间,中国的纯苯进口 ...

| | | | 11/11/2 | ■投期货 | 敏商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉冲奇回落，盘中09价格最高涨至13560:国产格现货交投一般,主流基盖坚挺:纯棉纱近日交抵尚可,但没幸之下市场 作心不足。国内棉花进口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月选口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万 吨，同比降71%; 2024/25年度9~4月累计进口86.6 ...

【沥青】 今日原油反弹,沥青跟涨不及裂解回落。鑫海350万吨/年常减压于5月20日停产沥青,产量降至4000吨/天,江 苏新海300万吨常减压装置于5月20日转产渣油,此外,华东亦有主营炼厂间张停产,预计下周产能利用率下 降。上周沥青出货量为39.2万吨,环比上升4.9万吨。截至5月19日,54家样本炼厂库存环比下降1万吨、104家 样本贸易商库存下降4.4万吨,BU震荡偏强。春季策略展望中我们曾提示5月累阵压力预计大悟缓解,目前平衡 衰演绎符合此前预估。基于6月有望启动去库周期，后续待BU裂解有所回调后可择机再次布局多BU梨解策略。 【液化石油气】 国内到岸价整体回落,而5月上半月集中到岸压力仍存,华东库容率继续走高。进口成本支撑松动叠加炼厂外放 有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始室启,关注化工需求回 升的节奏。原油虽有所反弹,现货端短期仍有一定下行空间,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《八》国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 原油 | ななな | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料 ...

【甲醇】 甲醇主力合约止跌,周期内港口以及内地黑库幅度较小。国产供应压力的显著增多对内地行情产生较大压制, 生产企业报价持续下调。进口到渗蛋回升,江浙地区MTO炭置开工率小幅提升,港口微幅累库。后续甲醇进口量 预计持续偏多,国产开工维持高位,5月甲醇传统谈季,内地以及港口预期展阵,基本面弱势延续。 | 《》 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月21日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | 女女女 | | | 烧碱 | ななな | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | 女女女 | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纳威 | ななな | 瓶片 | なな☆ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级 ...

| | | | 11 11 11 11 | SUIT FULUKES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆★ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面窄幅度荡。淡季来临课统表需波动下行，产量相对平稳，库存延续下降态势。热卷需求仍有韧烂,产量有所回落,库 存延续下降态势。铁水产量有所回落,整体仍处于高位,供应压力依然较大,没事终端承接能力有待观察。从下游行业看,内 需整体依依偏弱,制造业投资增速退步放缓 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Lithium ore prices have been declining due to supply and demand factors. The supply side has a competitive pattern, and the demand side shows signs of weakness, with reduced new energy vehicle sales growth and increased market risk aversion [1]. - During the price - decline of lithium carbonate, the industry chain is in a wait - and - see state. Downstream procurement is weak, and upstream salt factories have a strong willingness to hold prices. The futures price is under short - selling pressure [2]. - In the short term, caution is needed for the short - selling trend of lithium carbonate, especially near the 60,000 integer mark. High positions indicate large market divergence, and cost - related factors of Australian mines may cause short - squeeze situations [3]. - The Trump administration's policies and tariff conflicts have a negative impact on the lithium carbonate market. Although tariffs have decreased, they are still at a high level, and industrial policies may slow down the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the US [3]. Key Points by Topics Reasons for the Decline in Lithium Ore Prices - The supply side has formed a competitive pattern among South American salt lakes, Chinese - funded mines, and Australian mines since 2023. When demand weakens, there is a situation of competing to sell goods, leading to a continuous decline in prices [1]. - On the demand side, the export rush since the second half of last year has shown signs of fatigue. Trump's attitude towards the new energy industry and tariff concerns have increased market risk aversion, and the sales growth of new energy vehicles has slowed down [1]. Supply - Demand Situation in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - During the price decline, downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term agreements. Upstream salt factories have a strong willingness to hold prices, and there is only some trading between traders and downstream enterprises [2]. - The expectation of export rush is suppressed by high inventory, and the continuous decline of ore prices weakens cost support, resulting in a short - selling pattern for futures prices [2]. Downward Space and Price Stabilization Factors of Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, caution is required for the short - selling trend of lithium carbonate, especially near the 60,000 integer mark. High positions indicate large market divergence, and cost - related factors of Australian mines may cause short - squeeze situations [3]. Impact of Trump Policies and Tariff Conflicts - After the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Statement on May 12, US tariffs on Chinese lithium batteries have decreased. The tariff on Chinese vehicle - used lithium batteries has dropped to 58.4%, and the non - vehicle - used lithium battery tariff has dropped to about 41%, but the overall level is still high [3]. - Trump's industrial policies, such as withdrawing from the Inflation Reduction Act, may slow down the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the US and have a negative impact on the overall demand for lithium carbonate [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (implied as no specific star for logs but based on context) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides analysis on multiple commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and logs, assessing their supply, demand, inventory, and price trends, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, with a decrease in low - basis spot of domestic cotton and an upward trend in the basis. The cotton yarn market had low confidence but high price - raising willingness due to low inventory. In April 2025, cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports were 400,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 71%. From September 2024 to April 2025, cumulative imports were 866,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. The recent strength of Zhengzhou cotton was driven by Sino - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. The inventory in March - April was well - reduced, and if the negotiations continued to improve, there was an increased expectation of tight inventory at the end of the season. Suggested to wait and see or try the bull - spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - ICE sugar oscillated. In Brazil, the weather in May was favorable for harvesting, and sugarcane and sugar production were expected to rise. Most international consulting firms expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to remain high, above 4 million tons. In China, Zhengzhou sugar maintained an oscillation. In April, the syrup import volume decreased year - on - year. Due to the continuous decline of ICE sugar, the sugar import profit increased, and the import volume was expected to rise later. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, and consumption supported the sugar price. The import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly in Q1, which was also bullish for the supply side. However, the downward trend of ICE sugar limited the upside of Zhengzhou sugar. It was expected that the sugar price would maintain an oscillation in the short term, and it was suggested to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price remained stable. In Shandong, due to the decrease in downstream demand, the procurement enthusiasm of warehousemen declined, and the cold - storage shipment speed slowed down. Some warehousemen had completed the procurement for the Dragon Boat Festival, and the procurement volume decreased. With the increase in temperature across the country, the demand for apples decreased, and the listing of seasonal fruits also impacted the apple demand. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Although the flower quantity in the western producing areas was sufficient this year, the fruit - setting rate was low due to high temperature and strong wind during the flowering period, which might lead to lower - than - expected production. There were still differences in the yield expectation, and it was suggested to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU had a small increase, NR had a small increase, and BR had a large decrease. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight decline, the butadiene rubber price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price fluctuated. The global natural rubber supply entered the low - production period, and domestic and overseas producing areas were fully tapped. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded significantly last week, Yanshan Petrochemical planned to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, Guangzhou Petrochemical continued to be shut down for maintenance, and several other petrochemical plants operated at a reduced load. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate dropped significantly. The domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly last week, and the inventory of tire finished products increased again. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 614,200 tons this week, the bonded - area inventory in Qingdao continued to increase significantly, and the general - trade inventory continued to decrease. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory increased slightly to 13,500 tons last week, and the upstream butadiene port inventory dropped significantly to 30,900 tons. It was suggested to be bullish on RU&NR, wait and see on BR, and gradually reduce the position of cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - The futures price increased slightly. The spot price of Shandong eucalyptus pulp was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Hebei pine pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of May 15, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp in China was 2.198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.0% compared with the previous period. The domestic imported inventory was relatively high year - on - year. The demand for pulp was still weak, and the recent increase was mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the sustainability was still uncertain. It was suggested to wait and see or try to go long lightly after a pull - back [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the spot price remained stable. The overseas price of radiata pine continued to decline, and the overseas production willingness increased, while the domestic arrival volume continued to decrease, reducing the supply pressure. The peak season was gradually ending, and the log delivery volume would gradually decrease. The radiata pine arrival volume continued to decrease, reducing the inventory pressure. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs might continue to decrease, which was bullish for the supply side. However, the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the price rebound was lack of momentum. It was suggested to wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, global pure benzene consumption exceeded 65 million tons per year, with China being the largest consumer and importer, consuming over 25 million tons and having almost no exports [1]. - The five major downstream products of pure benzene (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid) account for about 95% of domestic benzene demand [1]. - Over the past five years, the consumption of pure benzene by the five major downstream industries has increased, mainly driven by the expansion of downstream product capacities [3]. - Globally, Western Europe, China, and the United States are the main importers of pure benzene, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - South Korea is the world's largest exporter of pure benzene, with its exports to China and the United States increasing significantly in recent years [9]. - China's pure benzene imports have been rising year - by - year due to strong downstream demand, and South Korea is the largest source of imports [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Consumption 1.1 Domestic Pure Benzene Consumption by Downstream Industry Distribution - Styrene is the main downstream product of pure benzene, consuming over 12 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 40% of domestic pure benzene consumption [1]. - Caprolactam and phenol together consumed about 10 million tons of benzene in 2024, aniline about 3.5 million tons, and adipic acid less than 2 million tons [1]. - The consumption growth of the five major downstream industries in the past five years was driven by capacity expansion, such as the growth of styrene and phenol capacities and the expansion of caprolactam capacity due to increased demand in related industries [3]. 1.2 Pure Benzene Consumption by Regional Distribution - East China is the largest domestic pure benzene consumption market, with a demand share of nearly 60% in 2024 and showing high - speed growth [5]. - North China, Northeast China, and South China had similar consumption volumes of about 2.5 million tons in 2024, and South China had a relatively fast consumption growth rate in the past five years due to the growth of local styrene capacity [5]. - The total benzene consumption in other domestic regions was about 3 million tons in 2024 [5]. 2. Pure Benzene Trade Pattern 2.1 Pure Benzene International Trade - Western Europe, China, and the United States are major importers, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - The most active trade areas are Asian countries' exports to China and the pure benzene arbitrage between South Korea and the United States [7]. - South Korea's pure benzene exports increased significantly in recent years, reaching 3.38 million tons in 2024, mainly to China and the United States, accounting for over 90% of its total exports [9]. - China's pure benzene imports reached a new high in 2024, with South Korea being the largest source, accounting for half of the total imports [11]. 2.2 Pure Benzene Domestic Trade Pattern and Flow - Northeast and Northwest China produce a large amount of by - product pure benzene but have relatively low downstream consumption, resulting in a net outflow of about 2 million tons in 2024 [13]. - East China has a large supply gap of about 6.5 million tons in 2024, with about 3.5 million tons met by imports [13]. - Shandong and Fujian need to transfer more pure benzene from other regions due to the large - scale commissioning of downstream refining and chemical facilities [13]. - In general, pure benzene flows from the Northwest to East and Southwest China, from the Northeast and North China to East China, and some imported goods in East and South China flow to the inland [13]. 2.3 Pure Benzene Domestic Logistics - Domestic pure benzene is mainly transported by road and water, with a small amount by pipeline and railway, and the transportation policy is relatively stable with mature routes [15]. - Road transportation is mainly used for cross - regional circulation in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui, with relatively large cost fluctuations [15]. - Sea transportation is mainly used in Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, with fixed routes and relatively stable costs [15].